2014 Brownlow Medal

[esnaider10]

I guarantee my voting system is better than 'maybe 0 ...could be 2...might be 3...possibly 1 ...I dunno....

KP I have been following this brownlow forum for years (without posting too much) one thing I have learned is that anything you say in regards to analysis of brownlow is bottom end..... Your analysis and comments have been woeful for years.... A good start to brownlow betting is to do the opposite of what KP thinks, that would give you a decent shot at making some coin.

In regards to my analysis - nobody is giving my man Cochin a hope in hell so there is no need to go through what my numbers mean.

 

[Sausage Legs]

The Handicaps are a suckers market. Rockliff is no where near it this year. He'll need 10+ with everyone else off scratch and he's still not a good thing. That's my first and last piece of useful information. I only answered because your username is so great.

agree on handicap markets being for suckers, i look thru every market for brownlows tho through 5 sites and just thought +10 was criminal.

 

[esnaider10]

So he's got Cotchin covered by 8

Apologies to KP - I just went and tried to look through your past posts to see who you actually liked in the brownlow this year - what I found was an average of 10 posts a day on bigfooty.....apologies because I didn't realise I was dealing with an invalid..... Good luck on brownlow night you deserve it!

 

[the_big_sav]

Hi guys
2 things
if you bet on a player to win and there is a tie, do you get half odds like usual and 3rd odds if 3 etc? If so, would money on selwood (or whoever you think will win) and the tie @ $3 be a good bet?
Thoughts on my team leaders
Danger
rockliff - hanley in no rockliff market
gibbs
pendles
heppell
freo? Ballantyne in no fyfe market just for fun
selwood - johnson
Gws? Ward but not touching them
Gaz - swallow
lewis - roughead
tyson
boomer
cotch
gray
riewoldt - hayes
kennedy
boyd - again not going near
priddis - kennedy

 

[d3ft]

Mr Bontompelli not to get a vote is 2.75, reckon his only chance is rd 15 v. melb. He kicked the match winner but have him about 5th in line. anyone give the lad one anywhere?

Where's this at?

 

[Sausage Legs]

Where's this at?

sportsbet - brownlow medal specials - to poll a vote.

 

[Tonche]

Anyone allowing multis on anything but team votes (groups, h2h, etc)?

 

[KardiniaPark]

KP I have been following this brownlow forum for years (without posting too much) one thing I have learned is that anything you say in regards to analysis of brownlow is bottom end..... Your analysis and comments have been woeful for years.... A good start to brownlow betting is to do the opposite of what KP thinks, that would give you a decent shot at making some coin.

In regards to my analysis - nobody is giving my man Cochin a hope in hell so there is no need to go through what my numbers mean.

Of course there is a need to go through your numbers, you posted them so they obviously mean something to you. I didn't pick it apart saying wrong wrong wrong, you are entitled to your opinion. I don't think he'll win but as you said no ones numbers are perfect they are just a guide.

What confuses me is that there is such a discrepancy between low and high. I'm not sure how you line it all up when you will have (I'm guessing obviously) Selwood 20-33 and Ablett 19-25 Priddis 13-30. You must put a number on it somewhere otherwise how do you know how to line them all up?

The only theory I can arrive at is that you saw Cotchin $50 (I assume that's what he is) and thought yep. Then worked your way to that 18-33 result. I wouldnt be surprised if he was the only one you looked at tbh.

Apologies to KP - I just went and tried to look through your past posts to see who you actually liked in the brownlow this year - what I found was an average of 10 posts a day on bigfooty.....apologies because I didn't realise I was dealing with an invalid..... Good luck on brownlow night you deserve it!

Meow! Now your just being catty, we are having a civil discussion. That 10 number surprises me I think you ****ed up your maths again it's probably closer to 30 a day.

You do realise an invalid has all their mental capacities right? I don't think me being in a wheelchair (for example) stops my brain working...

 

[KardiniaPark]

Hi guys
2 things
if you bet on a player to win and there is a tie, do you get half odds like usual and 3rd odds if 3 etc? If so, would money on selwood (or whoever you think will win) and the tie @ $3 be a good bet?
Thoughts on my team leaders
Danger
rockliff - hanley in no rockliff market
gibbs
pendles
heppell
freo? Ballantyne in no fyfe market just for fun
selwood - johnson
Gws? Ward but not touching them
Gaz - swallow
lewis - roughead
tyson
boomer
cotch
gray
riewoldt - hayes
kennedy
boyd - again not going near
priddis - kennedy

Yeah, dead heat rules apply.

 

[Keystone agony]

So he's got Cotchin covered by 8

huh? Odds

Mr Bontompelli not to get a vote is 2.75, reckon his only chance is rd 15 v. melb. He kicked the match winner but have him about 5th in line. anyone give the lad one anywhere?

I gave him one because I thought he was the match winner chance elsewhere vs collingwood and north off the top.of my head. Have him on 1.

 

[Willzzz]

Not a big fan of polling 3-2-1 after each game so I haven't done my count properly, but don't mind a flutter on the Brownlow.

Bets taken so far:

2014 AFL Brownlow Medal

1.5U – Winner: Joel Selwood @ $2.75 (Tattsbet)
0.5U – Quinella: Selwood/Gray @ $9 (Topsport)

 

[Thedeftouch]

Gray is the only player who could possibly get 30 (although improbable).

Ablett has the least variance of any player, lock him in for 23-24

 

[CamTinley]

Most Team Votes

Boak (PA) - Mumford (GWS) - Dal Santo (NM) ... and
Boak (PA) - Mumford (GWS) - Greenwood (NM)

Plus a couple with Hayes (StK) and Boyd (WB)

All my bets are done. Round One will seal my fate. A "S.Mumford ... Greater Western Sydney ... three votes" would be great to hear.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

a couple of interesting moves overnight. the round 4 leader (no selwood) on sportsbet had mumford move from $51 to $34 (my tallies have him co-leader at that point), and yes, money starting to flow for cotchin.

..and now into $21

 

[Sausage Legs]

Most Team Votes

Boak (PA) - Mumford (GWS) - Dal Santo (NM) ... and
Boak (PA) - Mumford (GWS) - Greenwood (NM)

Plus a couple with Hayes (StK) and Boyd (WB)

All my bets are done. Round One will seal my fate. A "S.Mumford ... Greater Western Sydney ... three votes" would be great to hear.

Treloar 3 votes.

 

[Keystone agony]

Im surprised treloar has been underestimated

 

[Murphinator]

Mr Bontompelli not to get a vote is 2.75, reckon his only chance is rd 15 v. melb. He kicked the match winner but have him about 5th in line. anyone give the lad one anywhere?

I like this bet as a semi hedge. Put some coin on Bonti to win the rookies group..with just 2 or 3 votes.


I really like: Daisy to poll ($3), Watts to poll ($2.75)

Like a bit: Kornes not to poll ($3.20, I have him with 1 vote)

 

[Keystone agony]

I reckon kornes will find at least one somewhere

 

[X_box_X]

$15 Gray to poll in most games at $15 w Classicbet

$15 Boak +7.5 handicap @ $15 w Classicbet


$30 McRae most Bulldogs votes @ $26 w Topsport
$30 Mundy most votes Group E @ $21 w Puntingpal
$30 McRae most votes Group A @ $11 w Puntingpal
$15 Beams/Mitchell/Kennedy most votes multi @ $16 w TAB (EXC Lewis)
$15 Rocky/Mundy/NDS most votes multi @ $15 w TAB (EXC Fyfe)
$100 Priddis top three @ $6 w TAB
$50 Priddis win @ $21 w TAB
$50 Selwood win @ $6.50 w Centrebet
$100 Kennedy top five @ $2.25 w TAB

 

[Keystone agony]

Since when are multis allowed at TAB?

 

[Murphinator]

the "brownlow king" will be on the footy show tonight. Who will he plug this year? Hopefully some value created again by his comments as it did last year

 

[Keystone agony]

the "brownlow king" will be on the footy show tonight. Who will he plug this year? Hopefully some value created again by his comments as it did last year

Marc Murphy

 

[Davedinkum]

All bets @tab

Joel Selwood Win $2.50

Joel Selwood / Sydney $5.00

Selwood / Ablett Quinella $2.75

Selwood / Gray Quinella $9.00

Gray Top 5 @1.75

Franklin Top 5 $3.50


Team Most Votes Multis Without Favs


1) Dangerfield + Rockliff + Gibbs + Beams + Heppel

2) Mundy + Swallow + Johnson + Mumford + Roughead

3) Jones + Cunington + Gray + Cotchin + Hayes

 

[inwhiterooms]

All bets @tab

Joel Selwood Win $2.50

Joel Selwood / Sydney $5.00

Selwood / Ablett Quinella $2.75

Selwood / Gray Quinella $9.00

Gray Top 5 @1.75

Franklin Top 5 $3.50


Team Most Votes Multis Without Favs


1) Dangerfield + Rockliff + Gibbs + Beams + Heppel

2) Mundy + Swallow + Johnson + Mumford + Roughead

3) Jones + Cunington + Gray + Cotchin + Hayes

So are the tab allowing team vote multis now?

Plenty of value there

 

[Keystone agony]

I cant get any multis with tab. Not sure how the 2 above have?