Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

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Jan 7, 2011
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Hey KM, so I'm wondering about Cavka. I see he had some big games in the finals of the TAC Cup this year and I finally got around to watching some of the Vic Metro v WA game from the champs tonight and I've seen the first half now and to half time he's had a game-high 14 possies, so he's obviously played some very good footy in important games. Shifter also said during the telecast that he has run a whopping 16.7 beep test, so clubs will be very interested in that, especially if rotations get reduced further in the future. His skills look to be neat, he seems to tackle well and he is a good size (185cm), so I'm wondering why he isn't spoken about more or highly? I see him talked about as "outside", but what is the difference between say him and a Gaff from West Coast, who went top 3 in his draft and is likewise very outside and also runs all day and has very good disposal?
 
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SApies

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Hey KM, love your work!
Where do you think Maynard will go? Possibility to be there at pick 30?
 

zorbadunde

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Hey Bud, Question for you is No. 5 from oakliegh Billy Gowers on anyone's list even as a rookie? He has showed some great form as a running half back and has good size to him.

Hope all is well mate.
 
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Given Clem Smith's fitness issues I cant see North investing a second round pick on him. Teia Miles would seem a better fit if they are looking for a small defender
 

Mullayo

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I'm really stuck on who the Pies will take at #5.

I reckon Petracca, Brayshaw and McCartin are the clear top 3 and will go accordingly to Saints and Demons.

Then i reckon the Pies will be super keen to get LaVerde but GWS will know this and LaVerde is perfect for GWS too. Strategically, and because LaVerde is worth it, i have GWS selecting him at #4.

I am then seriously stuck on who Collingwood will then pick. Kinda makes it hard to go ahead with a Phantom lol.

Hine/Rendell....penny for your thoughts?

Since Rendall has been at the Lexus Centre, the Pies have tapped his extensive SA network and gone with Grundy, Kennedy, Broomhead and Scharenburg.

Will they go S.A's Durdin to accompany Moore with the established class of Cloke and Reid?

Can't see them taking Wright, list wise.

#5 seems a bit of a stretch for Wellar, Pickett, Duggan, Langford etc.

Really awkward Draft posi for Hine. Will be a really interesting selection.

Yeah that sneak move of taking Laverde is being debated over at the GWS forum too. The apple of our eye is Wright (Boyd & Giles replacement and ruck relief for Mummy) but Laverde seems better than what we can get at 7 and Collingwood don't need Wright's skills they need a mid.
Maybe best defender Lever or next mid cab off the rank Ahern ?
We'd take Wright with 6 for sure and I want Lever or Ahern.
If McCartin was at 4 I'd hope we'd take him. Giving the Pies Laverde.
 
Ok then cheers. Goodbye Nic O'Brien hello Aidan Anderson/Josh Deluca-Cardillo hopefully
The bloke who averaged 25 disposals in the VFL this year? You can't possibly be serious.
 
Dec 5, 2012
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Heeney..

But other than Heeney of those likely to be taken outside the top 10 I'd be backing Goddard. Assuming played as a key defender and assuming he keeps healthy I can't see him not becoming a 200 gamer. Has the talent, has the physical attributes, has the performances on the board, has the work ethic and leadership qualities. He's my "safe" pick as guaranteed 200 gamer.
Any chance that the Tigers will take Goddard?
 
Dec 5, 2012
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Cockatoo is nearly 12 months younger than Petrecca.
Petrecca shot up the draft order massivley this year.
If Cockatoo had 12 more months development in him where would he go in the draft?
 
Jesus I meant Kyle Hardingham, not sure why I said Nic! Also saw 'your boy' got delisted
I always pick the last pick in the draft of that year as "my boy". The previous one was Michael Ross. So this year I'll take one of the blokes in the rookie draft I guess. Or McKenna, he's a good Irish lad
 

Panthera

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Hello Knightmare

With Brisbane shelling out their draft picks for Beams, Christensen and priority access youngsters; our first pick is at #67 (60th live pick in the draft).

Care to take a swing at it?

Are Hammelmann and Caleb Daniel any chance whatsoever to slide that far? o_O
 
Jan 7, 2011
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Petrecca shot up the draft order massivley this year.
That is largely because there were question marks earlier in the year as to whether he was "just a medium forward/undersized key forward" and whether he would be able to build a tank and slim down and especially play in the midfield, but as soon as those fears or queries were allayed he just went back to where he surely would have been rated had there been no doubts on these things to begin with. It's not like he just came from nowhere. Far from it.

We are talking here about someone who completely dominated a TAC Cup preliminary final as an "underager" last year, with a 5 goal 5, 8 or 9 contested mark, high 20's possession, 200+ champion data points game, to help get his Boyd-less team into the grannie and who kicked 41 goals for the year, despite often playing 2nd or 3rd fiddle to Boyd and/or Apeness.

Had he been born a week earlier and been at an AFL club this year I wouldn't be surprised if he would have been at least as effective at AFL level as say Jack Billings was for us, given that he is only 6 months younger than him, probably would have had at least as big a tank as Jack did, if not bigger and likely would have been far stronger than Jack was.

There do seem to be a lot in this year's draft pool who have a relatively late year birthday (September or later), though (eg. Wright, Duggan, Langford, Cockatoo, Menadue, Stretch, Lamb, Marchbank, Cordy, Wigg, Maynard), which may help explain why there is a bit of uncertainty over that group from about 4-25. Many of that group with late year birthdays may have a lot of improvement in them, especially the skinnier types, like Langford, Menadue, Ellis and Duggan.
 
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DarlinCatchemnt

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Look, i'm not here to argue back and forth.

Just interested in predicting the Draft.

I think the Top 3 picks are a lock, Petracca, Brayshaw and McCartin.

Pick 4 then becomes the strategic pick, presuming both GWS and Coll want LaVerde. Which i suspect they do.

FWIW, i have:

1. StK Petracca
2. Mel Brayshaw
3. Mel McCartin
4. GWS LaVerde
5. Coll ?????
6. GWS Wright
7. GWS ??????

Nice idea. It's certainly crossed my mind too. However I feel that GWS won't be keen to play to many games with the player they want right in front of them. I'm assuming they want Wright, Lever and a pacey mid, who might be Laverde, but also might not. Even if they do want him, I don't they'd risk losing one of Wright and Lever to the Pies just to try and secure the mid. Collingwood want pace and midfield depth, but they too could do with another tall, be that one to back up the defenders, or a forward, should Moore be the defender he's tipped to become.

I'll say GWS will be quite content to take Wright and Lever and then have their choice of two of Laverde, Pickett and Weller.
 

DarlinCatchemnt

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KM, I'm really starting to like the look of your phantom order now. It looks pretty realistic, but I can't help but feel you may have put a few players in "convenient" positions. By this I mean allocating players to clubs from their states, to play with brothers/cousins, or just putting players in clubs that suit them.

Weller to GC, Pickett to the Eagles, Durdin to Adelaide, Goddard to the Bombers, even (the slightly Fyfe-like) Lamb to Fremantle, and at a stretch, another Cockatoo at Essendon.

Do you think this is a fair call? It's certainly tough doing these things, because you want the players to be drafted in an order that roughly aligns with their quality, and also the clubs' needs, and again the players that suit certain clubs.

As an Eagle fan, I'd love to see Pickett slide to #11. He's a WA boy, has the pace we need, and is ranked in the vicinity of #11. But I find it hard to believe one of Collingwood, GWS, GC and (especially) Geelong wouldn't take him earlier. But then, if we say he's gone, there isn't an obvious suitor for WCE, and the order starts to look less pleasing. This is just one example. Having Fremantle take Lamb ahead of Durdin also seems very convenient, especially with Adelaide right there to pick up their man.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Hey KM, so I'm wondering about Cavka. I see he had some big games in the finals of the TAC Cup this year and I finally got around to watching some of the Vic Metro v WA game from the champs tonight and I've seen the first half now and to half time he's had a game-high 14 possies, so he's obviously played some very good footy in important games. Shifter also said during the telecast that he has run a whopping 16.7 beep test, so clubs will be very interested in that, especially if rotations get reduced further in the future. His skills look to be neat, he seems to tackle well and he is a good size (185cm), so I'm wondering why he isn't spoken about more or highly? I see him talked about as "outside", but what is the difference between say him and a Gaff from West Coast, who went top 3 in his draft and is likewise very outside and also runs all day and has very good disposal?

Cavka is a genuine top 30, maybe top 25 chance and should feature in the first half of the draft. My knocks are relatively his footskills can let him down, he lacks hurtfactor and penetration and has some minor inconsistency issues. He relatively lacks some pace as more an aerobic (endurance) athlete. He also while he can get his hands on it plenty, I don't necessarily always feel his impact.

Gaff relatively compared to Cavka is quicker and much more classy by foot with much better vision and execution. Cavka has a better contested side to his game and is probably more versatile from a role playing standpoint.

Hey KM, love your work!
Where do you think Maynard will go? Possibility to be there at pick 30?

Maynard may slip into the latter portion of the draft. We just haven't seen him through the midfield and dominating as many of us have hoped with Maynard spending much of his time in the back half or forward.

Maynard is not guaranteed but a fair chance to be available at 48 if we want him.

There are a few others I favour over Maynard, but if he fell into say the rookie draft he would be among those I'd be looking at closely.

Hey Bud, Question for you is No. 5 from oakliegh Billy Gowers on anyone's list even as a rookie? He has showed some great form as a running half back and has good size to him.

Hope all is well mate.

Gowers is in the mix given he was invited to the national combine but where clubs rate him is an unknown. Late/rookie chance I imagine. Did like some of the signs I saw from him through the finals and agree he is one clubs should be considering.

Hey km

Is menadue the classic "bigfooty highlights package kid" that isn't rated so highly in the industry itself??? Or is he a genuine high level talent that could sneak into the first round??

Also who do you think might be the big slider this year?? Corey Ellis is my tip.

Menadue is the classic highlights package type but additionally he also had a "special" final which probably made a few more people take notice than otherwise would be the case. Just every touch in that game just about other than one run into trouble was terrific with the meaningful run, long kicks to targets inside 50 and those explosive sidesteps. He is potential over performance and seems to be mostly regarded mostly as a 30-45 guy but with his talent I have him inside my top 30 and staying there. He is something like a less productive O'Rourke but when you can do as many things to the standard Menadue can, he deserves to be given a shot in the first half of the draft at least. Just first round is unlikely with other names being mentioned ahead of him.

Ellis probably still goes somewhere around pick 20, Jackson Nelson is my tip for slider with Brayden Maynard and Jordan Cunico two others who will go later than initially expected in the earlier part of this season.

Hey KM
So do ya reckon that menadue will be there at 28 for the blues ?

Definite chance that Menadue will be available at 28. From around pick 20 onward I imagine he'll start to be a consideration.

Given Clem Smith's fitness issues I cant see North investing a second round pick on him. Teia Miles would seem a better fit if they are looking for a small defender

Smith is a more immediate player with his production at WAFL League level. He is a season one player, and actually as a forward pocket while he has mostly played back/mid, I most like his potential in the front half with his tackling intent there.

Miles if looking for a further small defender I agree though late draft is probably a better option as Smith in that back half role hasn't convinced me.

Yeah that sneak move of taking Laverde is being debated over at the GWS forum too. The apple of our eye is Wright (Boyd & Giles replacement and ruck relief for Mummy) but Laverde seems better than what we can get at 7 and Collingwood don't need Wright's skills they need a mid.
Maybe best defender Lever or next mid cab off the rank Ahern ?
We'd take Wright with 6 for sure and I want Lever or Ahern.
If McCartin was at 4 I'd hope we'd take him. Giving the Pies Laverde.

What Collingwood have in mind is an unknown. Is it best available? Looking for a particular type? Some combination?

My assumption is Collingwood skip on both Wright and Lever and if Laverde is picked by GWS/Melbourne maybe Weller or possibly an Ahern, Pickett, Langford or Duggan are added. But I could be wrong. Collingwood may not even want Laverde and may just want the best big available at that point.

Any chance that the Tigers will take Goddard?

Goddard may be in the mix but mostly gets spoken about by the media as someone who will go later in the first round.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Cockatoo is nearly 12 months younger than Petrecca.
Petrecca shot up the draft order massivley this year.
If Cockatoo had 12 more months development in him where would he go in the draft?

Cockatoo would need a healthy year. The projection of going top 20 by some is based on potential.

If he had that extra year of development Cockatoo could go anywhere. Early or late. Mostly because we'd have another year of data and analysis on him. I'd be inclined even to say that it would hurt his stocks slightly, but it depends on your confidence in his talent.

I always pick the last pick in the draft of that year as "my boy". The previous one was Michael Ross. So this year I'll take one of the blokes in the rookie draft I guess. Or McKenna, he's a good Irish lad

McKenna is a good one. Essendon have this year got the best of the internationals. He had strong success v AIS earlier in the year. He'll be one to watch.

Hello Knightmare

With Brisbane shelling out their draft picks for Beams, Christensen and priority access youngsters; our first pick is at #67 (60th live pick in the draft).

Care to take a swing at it?

Are Hammelmann and Caleb Daniel any chance whatsoever to slide that far? o_O

Brisbane passed on Hammelmann so it's hard to see the club changing their mind on that one.

Caleb Daniel if picked probably goes more likely as a rookie.

That late in the draft I've got a 1/100 chance. My bet is Brisbane don't know for certain exactly who they'll be picking there with no guarantees on exactly who is available and which guys slide through. I'll go Jason Castagna as my late draft random guess as a guy who could inject pace into the back half. Daniel Butler is another who makes sense and for similar reasons would be a logical choice.

KM, I'm really starting to like the look of your phantom order now. It looks pretty realistic, but I can't help but feel you may have put a few players in "convenient" positions. By this I mean allocating players to clubs from their states, to play with brothers/cousins, or just putting players in clubs that suit them.

Weller to GC, Pickett to the Eagles, Durdin to Adelaide, Goddard to the Bombers, even (the slightly Fyfe-like) Lamb to Fremantle, and at a stretch, another Cockatoo at Essendon.

Do you think this is a fair call? It's certainly tough doing these things, because you want the players to be drafted in an order that roughly aligns with their quality, and also the clubs' needs, and again the players that suit certain clubs.

As an Eagle fan, I'd love to see Pickett slide to #11. He's a WA boy, has the pace we need, and is ranked in the vicinity of #11. But I find it hard to believe one of Collingwood, GWS, GC and (especially) Geelong wouldn't take him earlier. But then, if we say he's gone, there isn't an obvious suitor for WCE, and the order starts to look less pleasing. This is just one example. Having Fremantle take Lamb ahead of Durdin also seems very convenient, especially with Adelaide right there to pick up their man.

Convenient things can occasionally happen. Matt Crouch went to Adelaide last year. Who would have guessed? Zach Merrett to Essendon to join his brother.

Many clubs also have their state biases. With Tasmanian talent GC and Brisbane particularly take a high frequency of Tassie talent. Then clubs are relatively slightly more likely to pick players from their own states with variation between clubs.

With the phantom draft it's more about putting guys in roughly the positions they'll go and giving people a feel for where they could go. There never quite is a perfect phantom draft, though Emma Quayle did come frighteningly close with her first round a few years back which was impressive.

On Adelaide I feel they traded down for a reason and know something we may not. Durdin has had a relatively lousy year for who he is, in the way Goddard has. He may not go quite as high as expected and the talk around Goddard similarly is that he goes somewhere closer to 20 than 10.

In my recent update it was less intentionally placing players in convenient places as much as putting them in the next available pick I can see them getting taken while taking into account their rough draft range and putting them as close to where I see them going as I can.

Next update no doubt things will look different again but this is how it worked out last update.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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KM at this stage do you reckon Duggan will be available at 12?

50/50 Duggan is available. Depends on how things before Richmond fall. He is in the mix at 12 and likely on Richmond's shortlist if available I imagine.
 
May 6, 2007
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Looking at a key forward or a ruck men (a true ruck men or a true key forward not a cominbation) in the rookie draft.

Any likely types as possible late types? Jack Package mentioned a young Charger (?) named Brenton Payne. Any more info you can give us?

Im interested in Mark Kovacevic but some aren't big on him.
 
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