List Mgmt. 2014 Draft Trade FA Megathread

[bird_man]

Lee and White I can't see being big power forwards who we can bomb long too. McKenzie would suit that role.

McKenzie in the goal square and Lee and White playing up the ground would be a good setup IMO. Membrey as a HFFer.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

Reece is not a 2nd/3rd forward.

He is the got-to man for sure.

Perfect result IMO:

Petracca
Cockatoo
McKenzie
McDonald

solves a lot of "list-hole" problems straight away

Would be stoked with that (replace Cockatoo with a slider or other pacy mid). Meets our needs with developing KPPs for both fwd and def as well as shoring up the midfield

 

[HayesTheChamp]

Would be stoked with that (replace Cockatoo with a slider or other pacy mid). Meets our needs with developing KPPs for both fwd and def as well as shoring up the midfield

Then blitz the draft next year with mids.

 

[felsty]

Thought I would have a look at Hawthorns 2004 list compared to our list in 2014 and see how they stack up after Pelchens comments about being within 10% margin of that side...

Shane Crawford*
Joel Smith
Peter Everitt
Sam Mitchell*
Jonathon Hay
Campbell Brown*
Danny Jacobs
Richard Vandenberg
Angelo Lekkas
Nathan Lonie
Mark Williams*
Robert Campbell*
Nick Holland
Luke Hodge*
Nathan Thompson
John Barker
Kris Barlow
Mark Graham
Rayden Tallis
Nick Ries
Simon Beaumont
Adrian Cox
Lance Picioane
Ben Dixon
Trent Croad*
Michael Osborne*
Matthew Ball
Steven Greene
Rick Ladson*
Luke McCabe
Time Clarke
Brad Sewell*
Chance Bateman*
Luke Brennan
Ben Kane
Harry Miller
Paul Shelton
Josh Thurgood
Doug Scott
Ben Clifton
Zac Dawson
Tim Boyle
Michael Rix
Shaun Bergin

The players with a * next to their names were part of the 2008 Premiership winning team. Only 11 players that were still on their list.

The big thing we have to realise is their actions after this year.

In 2004 Hawks traded out Nathan Thompson for North Melbournes first TWO picks and upgraded their first rounder 3 places in the Bo Nixon trade, as well as a priority pick. Their first 3 picks that year were Roughead, Franklin, Lewis.

In 2005 Hawks traded out Jonathon Hay and Nathan Lonie for first round picks to North and Port respectively. This gave them Grant Birchall and Max Bailey, along with Xavier Ellis as another priority selection.

Their trade ins over this time also included Guerra, Gilham, Dew and most importantly Clarkson.

When looking at this, a few things are pointed out to me..

1. We will not be getting the kind of concessions Hawthorn were awarded in those 04-05 and therefore have to find other means of getting in top end talent.
2. The act of trading out players for first round draft picks has happened a lot earlier in the strategic rebuild than when Hawthorns occured (Lewis, Roughead, Franklin coming in 2005; Dunstan, Billings, Acres coming in 2014)
3. We aren't going to be getting first round draft picks for similiar calibre of players as Hay and Lonie. Daylight robbery.
4. Hawks KPP drafting happened closer to the premiership than what we are expecting.

From all this, I would say that we are ahead on our rebuild than when Hawthorn were. We have a lot of young players which Hawthorn didn't have at the same time, whether they will make it or not will be another story.

I think Hawks still had a lot of good leaders on board when permiership time came around, but the main leaders (Mitchell, Hodge, etc.) were still relatively young at that time, apart from Crawford, highlighting the importance of Armitage, Steven, Dempster to our next flag tilt.

I also think we will be relying heavily on FA to gain players in that important age bracket that can help identify that leadership void we have.

Regardless, we are ahead of Hawthorn with the age profile of our players at the same time, I think this may impact our performances in the short and medium term, perhaps not allowing us to be attempting to make finals by our 2018 goal, but hopefully this balances out come 2020 when a lot of our players are hitting their peak.

What other hard calls do we need to make?

If Steven left as a FA at the end of the year, and we got a PP, then it would help enormously and also better reflect the concessions Hawthorn got.

Like I said before, Thompson, Hay and Lonie all going for first round draft picks is daylight robbery, and I don't think we have anyone on our list that has that kind of currency.

A reflection of our poor football department and development of our players? a reflection of our poor recruiting in those premiership years?

There is a lot to like but a lot to go through still..

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Just because a side won a grand final in 1997 with an average forward line does not mean we will. We need to improve out list all around the ground.

Yes, my point was a superstar fwd line isnt the be all to end all.
Gotta have goal kicking mids and if you have accurate kicking flankers & wingers they can make your B-grade forward line a hell of a lot more potent.
Wich is why i said "spread the load". I never said a average fwd line would win us a flag.

 

[Axcellence]

No one to challenge for the 1st forward role?

Tell me which quality ff came out of top 15?

Clokk f/s
Hawk f/s
Tippett border line
Darling is not ff
Waite is if injury wise
jones is a joke
Brown was f/s


Just very hard to get a quality FF outside top 15. No point drafting another 2nd forward.

 

[felsty]

Rahul what are the chances Maynard falls to our pick in the 20s? how do you rate him amongst that group of De Goey, Duggan, Cockatoo, Lamb, Langford, Ahearn, Garlett, Ellis, Blakely, Menadue, Neal-Bullen, Gore

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Thought I would have a look at Hawthorns 2004 list compared to our list in 2014 and see how they stack up after Pelchens comments about being within 10% margin of that side...

Shane Crawford*
Joel Smith
Peter Everitt
Sam Mitchell*
Jonathon Hay
Campbell Brown*
Danny Jacobs
Richard Vandenberg
Angelo Lekkas
Nathan Lonie
Mark Williams*
Robert Campbell*
Nick Holland
Luke Hodge*
Nathan Thompson
John Barker
Kris Barlow
Mark Graham
Rayden Tallis
Nick Ries
Simon Beaumont
Adrian Cox
Lance Picioane
Ben Dixon
Trent Croad*
Michael Osborne*
Matthew Ball
Steven Greene
Rick Ladson*
Luke McCabe
Time Clarke
Brad Sewell*
Chance Bateman*
Luke Brennan
Ben Kane
Harry Miller
Paul Shelton
Josh Thurgood
Doug Scott
Ben Clifton
Zac Dawson
Tim Boyle
Michael Rix
Shaun Bergin

The players with a * next to their names were part of the 2008 Premiership winning team. Only 11 players that were still on their list.

The big thing we have to realise is their actions after this year.

In 2004 Hawks traded out Nathan Thompson for North Melbournes first TWO picks and upgraded their first rounder 3 places in the Bo Nixon trade, as well as a priority pick. Their first 3 picks that year were Roughead, Franklin, Lewis.

In 2005 Hawks traded out Jonathon Hay and Nathan Lonie for first round picks to North and Port respectively. This gave them Grant Birchall and Max Bailey, along with Xavier Ellis as another priority selection.

Their trade ins over this time also included Guerra, Gilham, Dew and most importantly Clarkson.

When looking at this, a few things are pointed out to me..

1. We will not be getting the kind of concessions Hawthorn were awarded in those 04-05 and therefore have to find other means of getting in top end talent.
2. The act of trading out players for first round draft picks has happened a lot earlier in the strategic rebuild than when Hawthorns occured (Lewis, Roughead, Franklin coming in 2005; Dunstan, Billings, Acres coming in 2014)
3. We aren't going to be getting first round draft picks for similiar calibre of players as Hay and Lonie. Daylight robbery.
4. Hawks KPP drafting happened closer to the premiership than what we are expecting.

From all this, I would say that we are ahead on our rebuild than when Hawthorn were. We have a lot of young players which Hawthorn didn't have at the same time, whether they will make it or not will be another story.

I think Hawks still had a lot of good leaders on board when permiership time came around, but the main leaders (Mitchell, Hodge, etc.) were still relatively young at that time, apart from Crawford, highlighting the importance of Armitage, Steven, Dempster to our next flag tilt.

I also think we will be relying heavily on FA to gain players in that important age bracket that can help identify that leadership void we have.

Regardless, we are ahead of Hawthorn with the age profile of our players at the same time, I think this may impact our performances in the short and medium term, perhaps not allowing us to be attempting to make finals by our 2018 goal, but hopefully this balances out come 2020 when a lot of our players are hitting their peak.

What other hard calls do we need to make?

If Steven left as a FA at the end of the year, and we got a PP, then it would help enormously and also better reflect the concessions Hawthorn got.

Like I said before, Thompson, Hay and Lonie all going for first round draft picks is daylight robbery, and I don't think we have anyone on our list that has that kind of currency.

A reflection of our poor football department and development of our players? a reflection of our poor recruiting in those premiership years?

There is a lot to like but a lot to go through still..

CRIKEY'S mate how much spare time do you have
That was a lot of good info. Well done , that was a good read

 

[felsty]

CRIKEY'S mate how much spare time do you have
That was a lot of good info. Well done , that was a good read

Didn't take too long.
Anyways there are lots of good things to come out of it, but a lot of bad too. We should have Billings, Dunstan, Acres a year ahead of where Lewis, Roughead and Franklin, and two years ahead of Ellis who was also 2nd BOG on grand final day, but a lot of the big calls that got Hawthorn their first round picks came in the next couple of years for us (Thompson, Hay, Lonie) and we don't have currency for that. That's also not including the priority picks they were given.

This off season is going to be huge, even from a rookie list sense. We need some big KPD options to come through there.

My ultimate 2015 off season would include hanging onto Steven, recieving a priority pick, trading it for a later pick and a player from GWS, and picking a Parish or Mathieson with our first and Schache with our later first round pick.

 

[okeydoke7]

We've had a lot of talk for a long time about a potential priority pick.

I think our case is different than Melbourne's. If we finish bottom next year that will mean 3 years in a row <5 wins. Our list composition contains/contained few early draft picks. We paid the price for a tilt at success whereas Melbourne paid the price for a continued and strategic lack of success. Melbourne already HAS had the draft picks on the list but have failed to A) select adequately or B) develop adequately.

We will have a case for a priority pick.

HOWEVER I can't see us getting one. The overall feel is that priority picks are as good as dead, with the commission holding the power in the most extreme of circumstances. Melbourne are a pretty extreme circumstance.

Free Agency can be our version of the priority pick if used well. Where the Hawks had a PP, we have the opportunity to use a market that didn't exist then. By losing FAs when on the downfall (and being compensated), then recruiting FAs when on the rise, we can make up that gap (in fact, more strategically given we receive something quantifiable).

Our issue will be attracting players to the club. And I don't mean opportunity seekers, I mean the difference makers. A potential move to Junction Oval could help in this regard. But mostly it is about the vision and what we put in place within the organisation.

There are plenty of gaps that need to be filled. 4 years is very optimistic. Hawks were viewed as a "lucky" premier in 08, not that there is such a thing. But they, arguably, played out of their skins and had a lot go right to get there.

 

[SpannaMan]

Thought I would have a look at Hawthorns 2004 list compared to our list in 2014 and see how they stack up after Pelchens comments about being within 10% margin of that side...

Shane Crawford*
Joel Smith
Peter Everitt
Sam Mitchell*
Jonathon Hay
Campbell Brown*
Danny Jacobs
Richard Vandenberg
Angelo Lekkas
Nathan Lonie
Mark Williams*
Robert Campbell*
Nick Holland
Luke Hodge*
Nathan Thompson
John Barker
Kris Barlow
Mark Graham
Rayden Tallis
Nick Ries
Simon Beaumont
Adrian Cox
Lance Picioane
Ben Dixon
Trent Croad*
Michael Osborne*
Matthew Ball
Steven Greene
Rick Ladson*
Luke McCabe
Time Clarke
Brad Sewell*
Chance Bateman*
Luke Brennan
Ben Kane
Harry Miller
Paul Shelton
Josh Thurgood
Doug Scott
Ben Clifton
Zac Dawson
Tim Boyle
Michael Rix
Shaun Bergin

The players with a * next to their names were part of the 2008 Premiership winning team. Only 11 players that were still on their list.

The big thing we have to realise is their actions after this year.

In 2004 Hawks traded out Nathan Thompson for North Melbournes first TWO picks and upgraded their first rounder 3 places in the Bo Nixon trade, as well as a priority pick. Their first 3 picks that year were Roughead, Franklin, Lewis.

In 2005 Hawks traded out Jonathon Hay and Nathan Lonie for first round picks to North and Port respectively. This gave them Grant Birchall and Max Bailey, along with Xavier Ellis as another priority selection.

Their trade ins over this time also included Guerra, Gilham, Dew and most importantly Clarkson.

When looking at this, a few things are pointed out to me..

1. We will not be getting the kind of concessions Hawthorn were awarded in those 04-05 and therefore have to find other means of getting in top end talent.
2. The act of trading out players for first round draft picks has happened a lot earlier in the strategic rebuild than when Hawthorns occured (Lewis, Roughead, Franklin coming in 2005; Dunstan, Billings, Acres coming in 2014)
3. We aren't going to be getting first round draft picks for similiar calibre of players as Hay and Lonie. Daylight robbery.
4. Hawks KPP drafting happened closer to the premiership than what we are expecting.

From all this, I would say that we are ahead on our rebuild than when Hawthorn were. We have a lot of young players which Hawthorn didn't have at the same time, whether they will make it or not will be another story.

I think Hawks still had a lot of good leaders on board when permiership time came around, but the main leaders (Mitchell, Hodge, etc.) were still relatively young at that time, apart from Crawford, highlighting the importance of Armitage, Steven, Dempster to our next flag tilt.

I also think we will be relying heavily on FA to gain players in that important age bracket that can help identify that leadership void we have.

Regardless, we are ahead of Hawthorn with the age profile of our players at the same time, I think this may impact our performances in the short and medium term, perhaps not allowing us to be attempting to make finals by our 2018 goal, but hopefully this balances out come 2020 when a lot of our players are hitting their peak.

What other hard calls do we need to make?

If Steven left as a FA at the end of the year, and we got a PP, then it would help enormously and also better reflect the concessions Hawthorn got.

Like I said before, Thompson, Hay and Lonie all going for first round draft picks is daylight robbery, and I don't think we have anyone on our list that has that kind of currency.

A reflection of our poor football department and development of our players? a reflection of our poor recruiting in those premiership years?

There is a lot to like but a lot to go through still..

If I am not mistaken free agency will play a big part in our next push. We don't really need to trade out players for more first picks nor trade out future first round picks for players because we will simply buy the players.

 

[felsty]

We've had a lot of talk for a long time about a potential priority pick.

I think our case is different than Melbourne's. If we finish bottom next year that will mean 3 years in a row <5 wins. Our list composition contains/contained few early draft picks. We paid the price for a tilt at success whereas Melbourne paid the price for a continued and strategic lack of success. Melbourne already HAS had the draft picks on the list but have failed to A) select adequately or B) develop adequately.

We will have a case for a priority pick.

HOWEVER I can't see us getting one. The overall feel is that priority picks are as good as dead, with the commission holding the power in the most extreme of circumstances. Melbourne are a pretty extreme circumstance.

Free Agency can be our version of the priority pick if used well. Where the Hawks had a PP, we have the opportunity to use a market that didn't exist then. By losing FAs when on the downfall (and being compensated), then recruiting FAs when on the rise, we can make up that gap (in fact, more strategically given we receive something quantifiable).

Our issue will be attracting players to the club. And I don't mean opportunity seekers, I mean the difference makers. A potential move to Junction Oval could help in this regard. But mostly it is about the vision and what we put in place within the organisation.

There are plenty of gaps that need to be filled. 4 years is very optimistic. Hawks were viewed as a "lucky" premier in 08, not that there is such a thing. But they, arguably, played out of their skins and had a lot go right to get there.

Can you see us pushing Steven out this year for a PP and trading in some quality from GWS, then the year after going for FAs?
If Steven leaves we cant dillute our FA compo if it will be in the first round

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Can you see us pushing Steven out this year for a PP and trading in some quality from GWS, then the year after going for FAs?
If Steven leaves we cant dillute our FA compo if it will be in the first round

I really can't see us letting Steven walk considering the free agency players we will be targeting (Danger, Sloan etc.) will be similar age to him. If Pelican remained then it may have happened. I'm expecting Jack to be signed to a nice, lucrative deal. Something like 4 x 600k.

 

[okeydoke7]

Can you see us pushing Steven out this year for a PP and trading in some quality from GWS, then the year after going for FAs?
If Steven leaves we cant dillute our FA compo if it will be in the first round

Potentially.

I've been discussing this very option for a couple of months now. The very fact he remains uncontracted and the timing of this is interesting. The longer it goes on, the more likely he becomes.

IF he were to go, I highly doubt we will bring in FAs. We would keep pick 2 for him (presuming bottom of ladder finish and Band 1 compo).

IF we went down the "steven leaving" path or if Steven decided to leave, we would be left with 1, 2 and 20 plus pre-season pick 1 to orchestrate a GWS raid + draft picks. In that event, FA wouldn't be on our agenda until the following year.

IF we kept Steven, I'd say we would look to FA at end of next year. Even if it's not superstars, just capable players. Bringing in some older (note - not old) players to compliment the younger guys and keep the list spread healthy.

Great point RE dilution of band 1 compo.

It's all very interesting and probably dependent upon our discussions with these potential FAs next season.

 

[okeydoke7]

I really can't see us letting Steven walk considering the free agency players we will be targeting (Danger, Sloan etc.) will be similar age to him. If Pelican remained then it may have happened. I'm expecting Jack to be signed to a nice, lucrative deal. Something like 4 x 600k.

Sloane is out of contract, not a FA. Dangerfield unlikely to move to us. If he goes as a FA it'd be for a reasonably successful club IMO.

 

[okeydoke7]

Imagine this (complete nonsense and requires a lot): Cameron, Shiel and Treloar all buy into the idea of coming to St Kilda.

We hold some aces, including pick 1 and the pre-season draft pick 1.

GWS pick-up Jack Steven as a FA from St.Kilda on good coin. They then trade the 3 for picks 1 and 2 (J. Steven compo).

We end up with Cameron, Shiel, Treloar, Pick 20
They end up with Steven, Pick 1, Pick 2

Heavily in our favour, but given they are all out of contract we hold a lot of leverage.

That is a nonsense hypothetical that would require planets to align. We are underpaying, big time.

But that's what this thread is for isn't it?

 

[TN25]

Can you see us pushing Steven out this year for a PP and trading in some quality from GWS, then the year after going for FAs?
If Steven leaves we cant dillute our FA compo if it will be in the first round

I cant see Steven leaving the club.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Sloane is out of contract, not a FA. Dangerfield unlikely to move to us. If he goes as a FA it'd be for a reasonably successful club IMO.

The point is the players we will target will be similar age to Steven. Danger used as an example seeing as he's a well known FA next year.

 

[TN25]

Imagine this (complete nonsense and requires a lot): Cameron, Shiel and Treloar all buy into the idea of coming to St Kilda.

We hold some aces, including pick 1 and the pre-season draft pick 1.

GWS pick-up Jack Steven as a FA from St.Kilda on good coin. They then trade the 3 for picks 1 and 2 (J. Steven compo).

We end up with Cameron, Shiel, Treloar, Pick 20
They end up with Steven, Pick 1, Pick 2

Heavily in our favour, but given they are all out of contract we hold a lot of leverage.

That is a nonsense hypothetical that would require planets to align. We are underpaying, big time.

But that's what this thread is for isn't it?

Haven't heard about the draft class of next year. Is it meant to be good? Very unlikely but I would love that deal.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Haven't heard about the draft class of next year. Is it meant to be good? Very unlikely but I would love that deal.

Some absolute midfield jets in next year's draft class.

Keep Jack, Keep pick 1, trade our priority pick & change for Cameron...

 

[Moral Decay]

Can you see us pushing Steven out this year for a PP and trading in some quality from GWS, then the year after going for FAs?
If Steven leaves we cant dillute our FA compo if it will be in the first round

I can see the club having a list of options all determined by circumstance, right now Jack Stevens hasn't signed up and what happens with him will determine all the other options.
He will be a free agent at the end of 2015. If he is restricted, (can someone help on this) that improves our hand for trades, unrestricted and then compo kicks in. If he goes I can't see more than one other player being traded out for strategic trade value, though anyone over the age of 25 that is fit and firing will be mentioned.

The incoming FA scenario is a different thing, I wouldn't want to see us hit the FA market until we are a genuine finalist no scraping into the eight on percentage and out straight away then looking for a FA to lift us further, happier to see us make the 8 in position 5 or 6 and win a final; then go for the FA.

 

[okeydoke7]

The point is the players we will target will be similar age to Steven. Danger used as an example seeing as he's a well known FA next year.

IF we lost Steven (as discussed), it is unlikely we will target FAs. IF we lost Steven, we would most likely receive Band 1 compo (likely pick 2). This would not be the case if we targeted other FAs, which dilutes the compensation available for a player.

IF we lost Steven, the players that we would target would NOT be the same age as Steven. It would likely be either A) draftees, 18YO, Pick 1, 2 and 20 or B) GWS raid, between 20 and 22, EG - Cameron, Shiel Treloar etc etc that are coming out of contract, potentially "fast-tracking" the re-build by bringing in quantifiable talent that will be at a peak age when, presumably, challenging.

 

[Periphery]

Keep Jack, Keep pick 1, trade our priority pick & change for Cameron...

This would be the best option. Hopefully the AFL comes to the table with the PP. The only better outcome would be if we forced Cameron to the PSD and then burnt GWS to the ground.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

IF we lost Steven (as discussed), it is unlikely we will target FAs. IF we lost Steven, we would most likely receive Band 1 compo (likely pick 2). This would not be the case if we targeted other FAs, which dilutes the compensation available for a player.

IF we lost Steven, the players that we would target would NOT be the same age as Steven. It would likely be either A) draftees, 18YO, Pick 1, 2 and 20 or B) GWS raid, between 20 and 22, EG - Cameron, Shiel Treloar etc etc that are coming out of contract, potentially "fast-tracking" the re-build by bringing in quantifiable talent that will be at a peak age when, presumably, challenging.

Why let Steven (born in 1990) walk only to target free agents in 2016 (born in 1991)? I'm sorry but that is an extremely incompetent list management strategy and unless Steven forces our hand I very much doubt we do what you are saying.

 

[TN25]

Some absolute midfield jets in next year's draft class.

Keep Jack, Keep pick 1, trade our priority pick & change for Cameron...

Yeah if there are stars then I'd keep Jack and pick 1. Do you think we would be thinking ahead and pick McCartin this year and pick up a gun midfielder next year? Or would we go for Petracca because he is an absolute jet