Bumped Who Is Closer To A Premiership? Lions/Pies? (new posts start at #244)

Sep 22, 2010
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I'd go with Brisbane to win a premiership before the Pies. Brisbane have the stronger midfield going forward and better top end talent. Adding Beams and Christensen to what they already have then adding Keays next year who is essentially another Beams through their academy next year. They look the more attractive bet to win the next flag between the two teams. That academy is going to keep churning out players and Brisbane look to be in a state where they're a destination team under Leppitsch now with their young list looking good. Under Nathan to this point more of the good players are going out than coming in, and that trend probably continues as we continue to slide down the ladder.
 
I'd go with Brisbane to win a premiership before the Pies. Brisbane have the stronger midfield going forward and better top end talent. Adding Beams and Christensen to what they already have then adding Keays next year who is essentially another Beams through their academy next year. They look the more attractive bet to win the next flag between the two teams. That academy is going to keep churning out players and Brisbane look to be in a state where they're a destination team under Leppitsch now with their young list looking good. Under Nathan to this point more of the good players are going out than coming in, and that trend probably continues as we continue to slide down the ladder.

So you are saying Bucks has destroyed the Pies because all the good players outside of Pendles and Cloke and Reid have Walked.

So are we getting that Parish Kid next year then?

So we only get better when Nathan get's the Sack?
 
Sep 28, 2006
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I'd go with Brisbane to win a premiership before the Pies. Brisbane have the stronger midfield going forward and better top end talent. Adding Beams and Christensen to what they already have then adding Keays next year who is essentially another Beams through their academy next year. They look the more attractive bet to win the next flag between the two teams. That academy is going to keep churning out players and Brisbane look to be in a state where they're a destination team under Leppitsch now with their young list looking good. Under Nathan to this point more of the good players are going out than coming in, and that trend probably continues as we continue to slide down the ladder.
KM, I don't mind some of your stuff but this a crap.

Destination club...pfft. They benefitted that Beams brother plays there and his sick dad. Clay plays for Gold Coast, Dayne goes there. Christensen had to get out of Geelong because he got busted porking a teammates missus. Brisbane had the $$. They've lost 7 players in the last 2 years, who wanted out, most 1st & 2nd round picks. They'll lose Aish next year to add to that. 3 players have wanted to leave us. Thomas, Wellingham and Beams. Ironically all got massive deals to change clubs. Others were moved on by the club.

Brisbane have rubbish tall players at both ends, an injury plagued ruckman and Stefan Martin who played a handful of good games this year, after playing mainly 2's last year. Have a look at the gun key forwards in the comp. All are either early draft picks & father sons. Tex Walker was an academy player and Petrie is good without being a gun.

Brisbane have retained 2 1st round pick players since 2008 and Aish will bail next year. You follow drafts as much as anyone. I would have thought you'd have seen the lack of top end talent at Brisbane. They'll be bottom 5 again even with Beams and a complimentary player in Christensen. Patfull is a huge loss.

Better top end talent??? Pendles best mid, Cloke best forward, Reid best backman. Elliott would be close to best small forward, possibly Adcock best small defender. Rucks?? I know who'd I rather have in a couple of years when it's time for challenging.

You sure you haven't been on the piss?
 
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Jul 25, 2008
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Then what you call Adams, Greenwood, Sidebottom and Pendles?

A long way behind Rockliff, Beams, Redden, Hanley, Zorko, Martin, Rich, Aish and Mayes. Our list lacks a defining trait ATM and it's really concerning...

On the whole rivalry thing though I find it hard to buy into a rivalry with a club that has as many members as an A league franchise that didn't exist when the Lions won their last premiership!

Lions 2014: 23,930
Victory 2014-2015 (2 rounds in): 22,611

When thrown in with a $12 million debt it just shows how demoralising it must be to support the Lions!!
 
Sep 28, 2006
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A long way behind Rockliff, Beams, Redden, Hanley, Zorko, Martin, Rich, Aish and Mayes. Our list lacks a defining trait ATM and it's really concerning...

On the whole rivalry thing though I find it hard to buy into a rivalry with a club that has as many members as an A league franchise that didn't exist when the Lions won their last premiership!

Lions 2014: 23,930
Victory 2014-2015 (2 rounds in): 22,611

When thrown in with a $12 million debt it just shows how demoralising it must be to support the Lions!!
A long way??? Swan and Broomhead, than we haven't even seen Freeman yet, nor BK with any semblance of fitness under his belt. I'll be shocked if our midfield doesn't equip itself quite well in round 1.

The Brisbane midfield is being massively overrated and many are getting sucked in by the media. I watched them plenty living up here. Have a look at the flogging they got from Adelaide by 100 points at the Gabba. Rockliff got 40 of the most worthless possessions I've ever seen. It was worse then the game we played against Hawthorn in 2012, where Beams, Swan & Pendles all had near 40 possies but we still got flogged.

Hanley and Beams are guns. Rich has the potential to be but he better get a move on. The others are solid players or not proven yet (Mayes/Aish), similar to some of our youngsters.

As for a defining trait for our midfield, I'll bet it's a shitload better, defensively and that's a big part of why our backline got exposed in the 2nd half of the year.

Not aiming it at you Doggy but it's quite funny how many talk up opposing team players based on stats and media comments but over analyse our own players who we watch day in day out.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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So you are saying Bucks has destroyed the Pies because all the good players outside of Pendles and Cloke and Reid have Walked.

So are we getting that Parish Kid next year then?

So we only get better when Nathan get's the Sack?

It's more an overall trend shifting out. Outside of veterans we have had
year 1: Wellingham/Dawes
year 2: Shaw
year 3: Beams/Lumumba

Those are very significant pieces.

Collingwood aren't finishing bottom 4. But 12th next year, possibly.

KM, I don't mind some of your stuff but this a crap.

Destination club...pfft. They benefitted that Beams brother plays there and his sick dad. Clay plays for Gold Coast, Dayne goes there. Christensen had to get out of Geelong because he got busted porking a teammates missus. Brisbane had the $$. They've lost 7 players in the last 2 years, who wanted out, most 1st & 2nd round picks. They'll lose Aish next year to add to that. 3 players have wanted to leave us. Thomas, Wellingham and Beams. Ironically all got massive deals to change clubs. Others were moved on by the club.

Brisbane have rubbish tall players at both ends, an injury plagued ruckman and Stefan Martin who played a handful of good games this year, after playing mainly 2's last year. Have a look at the gun key forwards in the comp. All are either early draft picks & father sons. Tex Walker was an academy player and Petrie is good without being a gun.

Brisbane have retained 2 1st round pick players since 2008 and Aish will bail next year. You follow drafts as much as anyone. I would have thought you'd have seen the lack of top end talent at Brisbane. They'll be bottom 5 again even with Beams and a complimentary player in Christensen. Patfull is a huge loss.

Brisbane I agree now have a poor group of talls but that will be replenished easily through the academy.

But I have good reason to be bullish on Brisbane's future, and a reason that goes deeper than the playing list you may look at today.

In addition to Keays who may be the best and certainly looks a top 5 guy next year, Nate Dennis next year also is a ripper for them as a ruckman who also could be a terrific key defender.

What the average fan won't know is those guys in the Academy programs, they develop them better than the AIS boys. Heeney as an example, he was coming into this year worth around pick 20 as a possible but far from certain first rounder. Jack Steele from GWS, he is an overager and a club bid a first round selection on him, he was overlooked completely last year and has become one of the most productive guys in this draft class. Jack Hiscox is going second round to Sydney as an overager after not nearly being relevant last year, just turning an athlete into a really nice talent. You're going to see a lot of this in the future.

In addition to the development advantage within the Brisbane academy, in QLD a high proportion of players getting drafted from QLD are actually talls. Harris Andrews who Brisbane are getting as a tall key forward/key defender has developed significantly this year and looks like he has real scope long term to be something, and under the current F/S bidding system they hardly had to pay a thing to get him. Brisbane also could have taken Matthew Hammelmann as a key forward but decided against it despite the promise he has shown. With the academy and being able to raise these kids from the age of 12, they'll be developing monsters. Absolute monsters like you'd never believe having so much time to mold these kids into whatever they want.
And looking back historically QLD is a breeding ground for talls with nearly half of the QLDers in the AFL key position players or ruckmen.

Unless the draft rules change drastically Brisbane will get those talls to complement their potent midfield group, no problem, just through the academy. With that academy program they just about won't need to scout talent outside their academy, as we're seeing this year just about all their picks are academy guys and we're going to see a lot more of that in the future as Brisbane and the other clubs with the academies get more years into their academy boys.
 
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Pie_fan92

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I can't believe the hype over the Lions midfield. Sure it's probably their strength but I'd back nearly half the other sides to give them a whooping. I can't see their midfield getting on top of any of the top 8 teams. I'd even back Adelaide and the Suns to outplay them. I hope we flog those campaigners in round 1 and shut them up real good.
 
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It's more an overall trend shifting out. Outside of veterans we have had
year 1: Wellingham/Dawes
year 2: Shaw
year 3: Beams

Those are very significant pieces.

Collingwood aren't finishing bottom 4. But 12th next year, possibly.



Brisbane I agree now have a poor group of talls but that will be replenished easily through the academy.

But I have good reason to be bullish on Brisbane's future, and a reason that goes deeper than the playing list you may look at today.

In addition to Keays who may be the best and certainly looks a top 5 guy next year, Nate Dennis next year also is a ripper for them as a ruckman who also could be a terrific key defender.

What the average fan won't know is those guys in the Academy programs, they develop them better than the AIS boys. Heeney as an example, he was coming into this year worth around pick 20 as a possible but far from certain first rounder. Jack Steele from GWS, he is an overager and a club bid a first round selection on him, he was overlooked completely last year and has become one of the most productive guys in this draft class. Jack Hiscox is going second round to Sydney as an overager after not nearly being relevant last year, just turning an athlete into a really nice talent. You're going to see a lot of this in the future.

In addition to the development advantage within the Brisbane academy, in QLD a high proportion of players getting drafted from QLD are actually talls. Harris Andrews who Brisbane are getting as a tall key forward/key defender has developed significantly this year and looks like he has real scope long term to be something, and under the current F/S bidding system they hardly had to pay a thing to get him. Brisbane also could have taken Matthew Hammelmann as a key forward but decided against it despite the promise he has shown. With the academy and being able to raise these kids from the age of 12, they'll be developing monsters. Absolute monsters like you'd never believe having so much time to mold these kids into whatever they want.
And looking back historically QLD is a breeding ground for talls with nearly half of the QLDers in the AFL key position players or ruckmen.

Unless the draft rules change drastically Brisbane will get those talls to complement their potent midfield group, no problem, just through the academy. With that academy program they just about won't need to scout talent outside their academy, as we're seeing this year just about all their picks are academy guys and we're going to see a lot more of that in the future as Brisbane and the other clubs with the academies get more years into their academy boys.
Far enough you follow that closely but by the time these kids are ready to have an impact, Hanley and Beams will be 30. Those missing 1st rounders will hurt them bigtime in the years to come, next 3 to 5, while we've picked up Adams, Kennedy, Broomhead, Grundy, Scharenberg and Freeman who are all a few years advanced on kids not even drafted yet.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Far enough you follow that closely but by the time these kids are ready to have an impact, Hanley and Beams will be 30. Those missing 1st rounders will hurt them bigtime in the years to come, next 3 to 5, while we've picked up Adams, Kennedy, Broomhead, Grundy, Scharenberg and Freeman who are all a few years advanced on kids not even drafted yet.

I'm not huge on what we have going into the future. A future without Maxwell and Ball as leaders gone and Beams as our second best player also gone. That's a huge step back. We dropped away badly after Maxwell went out. With Ball also gone and Beams gone and even Lumumba, that really weakens what we have substantially. I like the guys we are drafting in the most part and our scouts are identifying good talent, we're bringing in some talent and doing a good job developing them at least to a point. But while we're drafting well, I'm not seeing the star power in enough of them or the leadership or coaching to really maximise their talents to the level a Hawthorn or Sydney in recent times are with the talent they are bringing in. I just see having a bunch of seasons where we finish 9th, maybe a few where we finish in the 5-8 range, but top 4 finishes I feel with the group we have will not happen again as much as I desperately as a fan hope I'm wrong.

I don't have Brisbane in my top 8 next year. I have them at around 10th and on the gradual rise from there with the strength of their academy to shock some people. I just have us more around 12th next year and probably more likely staying around there in coming years.
 
I'm not huge on what we have going into the future. A future without Maxwell and Ball as leaders gone and Beams as our second best player also gone. That's a huge step back. We dropped away badly after Maxwell went out. With Ball also gone and Beams gone and even Lumumba, that really weakens what we have substantially. I like the guys we are drafting in the most part and our scouts are identifying good talent, we're bringing in some talent and doing a good job developing them at least to a point. But while we're drafting well, I'm not seeing the star power in enough of them or the leadership or coaching to really maximise their talents to the level a Hawthorn or Sydney in recent times are with the talent they are bringing in. I just see having a bunch of seasons where we finish 9th, maybe a few where we finish in the 5-8 range, but top 4 finishes I feel with the group we have will not happen again as much as I desperately as a fan hope I'm wrong.

I don't have Brisbane in my top 8 next year. I have them at around 10th and on the gradual rise from there with the strength of their academy to shock some people. I just have us more around 12th next year and probably more likely staying around there in coming years.

Speculating about our future in coming years when you have no idea how players will develop or who we will recruit is ridiculous. You might be right about our finish in 2015 but beyond that is anyone's guess.
 

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Brisbane I agree now have a poor group of talls but that will be replenished easily through the academy.

But I have good reason to be bullish on Brisbane's future, and a reason that goes deeper than the playing list you may look at today.

In addition to Keays who may be the best and certainly looks a top 5 guy next year, Nate Dennis next year also is a ripper for them as a ruckman who also could be a terrific key defender.
.

I think you are forgetting that it takes a lot longer for talls to develop than mids. By the time any of their talls are able to consistently perform at a high level, Beams and co will be pushing 30. Meanwhile our Witts, Grundy, Keefe, Frost, Reid, Moore and Brown will all be Ripe as our mids have become a hardened group.
 

Tbone McGraw

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Maybe their midfield is best in the league, and that is a big maybe.

However they have no decent key position players.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Speculating about our future in coming years when you have no idea how players will develop or who we will recruit is ridiculous. You might be right about our finish in 2015 but beyond that is anyone's guess.

I agree with the premise that any long term predictions are highly speculative and things can really change in a hurry - look at Port Adelaide. I get that side completely and I'm not disagreeing.

But the way things are trending for Collingwood with the outs and the consistent decline under Nathan and some of the rules some other teams are being afforded by the AFL, I'm not optimistic about our premiership chances over coming years.

I think you are forgetting that it takes a lot longer for talls to develop than mids. By the time any of their talls are able to consistently perform at a high level, Beams and co will be pushing 30. Meanwhile our Witts, Grundy, Keefe, Frost, Reid, Moore and Brown will all be Ripe as our mids have become a hardened group.

There is a theory and I believe it to be a completely wrong one that the age of 30 is the cut-off point when talking about being AFL relevant. It may be for Collingwood, our guys seem to hit the wall when the hit 30, but if looked after they should be able to remain relevant up until roughly the ages of 33/34 and sometimes though admittedly on the rare occasion longer.

With the current Collingwood group while we have some nice foundation pieces I predict with our current players that we don't in their career cycle win another flag. Perhaps at the very tailend of Moore's career if we really draft well and turn things around and find a way to attract talent, but it's hard to see many of our current guys being around when we do.

Sydney and with the strength of their academy coming through will stay up and continue winning and GWS, Gold Coast and Brisbane will rise up and become with time further near impossible to beat top 4 sides who other than the occasional competitor should remain up and markedly better than what we are able to build.

For me it's less I think Brisbane will win a flag as much as I think it's even more unlikely Collingwood win another flag with this group given the nature of the advantages firstly Sydney over the years have been given that puts them so far ahead but then Gold Coast, GWS and Brisbane when eventually they all build, their advantages should be decisive due to the lack of competitive balance within the academy rules.
 

Chief Ten Beers

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Brisbane, with their list, are ahead with their rebuild in terms of list management and age profile. I can't see the Pies being bottom 4 next year even with neutral glasses on.

Anyway, Premierships are rubbish to predict - back in June it was hard to pick this year never mind a couple of years down the track
 
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Brisbane is closer than us, but not by much, and neither team is close to a flag. Their midfield is now much better than ours.

You can win with a good midfield and no forwards, you'll need a decent back line however. Brisbane need to fix their defensive posts up and then they'll be dangerous.

Geelong won plenty of games without dominant key forwards in their prime years, we also won in 2010 and Cloke/Dawes weren't overly dominant. But both teams had good defensive talls. Tall forwards help but aren't everything.

Good midfielders and half forwards will kick you a winning score. But a solid back line is required to support them.
 

Nicco_jj

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So Beams has come out and said that the Lions are closer to a premiership than we are.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-10-24/lions-window-is-open-beams

I reckon this is a load of bullsh**. Yeah, they have a young list as well but it's full of midfielders and they are without a power forward.

What dyou guys think? (take off the bias hat)

Also, this is my first thread, so hopefully i've done this correctly.


There once was a bloke who worked for Holden. He said that Holden was the best brand of car around... Then one day a Ford factory opened closer to his house - a lot closer. He decided that although he loved Holden, that he'd go and work at the Ford factory instead because it made more sense.
First day if working for Ford, the man had dinner guests that night. His guests soon quizzed him; so, which do you think is the better car; Ford or Holden?
"Ford, of course", he replied.


The media set Dayne up for this. Of course he is going to say Brisbane. If you had have asked him "who's closer, Brisbane or Hawks?" He would have also said Brisbane. You have to have that belief in your own club.

As for the TRUTH... We are going to be extreme melt bailed, and goodness knows the Brisbane supporters are that far up their own clacker at the moment after trading in Beams and Christensen that they'd surely believe their list to be better and thus closer to winning a flag.

Objectively, who the hell knows.
 

Tbone McGraw

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Knightmare i respect your opinions but can you seriously see a club like Brisbane overtaking us? I actually think they are on their last legs.

Reason being is nobody gives a fck about AFL in qld.

Then the next reason is the Suns. Younger and more attractive.

They should be worried and appears they are with their recruitment.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Knightmare i respect your opinions but can you seriously see a club like Brisbane overtaking us? I actually think they are on their last legs.

Reason being is nobody gives a fck about AFL in qld.

Then the next reason is the Suns. Younger and more attractive.

They should be worried and appears they are with their recruitment.

From a Brisbane Lions the business perspective I agree with you on Brisbane's position. They really struggle.

You are also right about the limited interest in AFL in QLD. It's the same story as in NSW, it's a rugby state.

Gold Coast I also agree are more advanced and more talented and that's why I'm not overall suggesting Brisbane will win a premiership. Sydney, GWS and Gold Coast long term should be the three top teams with Brisbane that fourth in theory.

On Brisbane their recruiting last year was terrific. Aish, Taylor mid draft who won the rising star. Gardiner can be a really good key defender. Robertson and Cutler also look like genuine long term players and further value picks. McStay as a KPP I still have a ? over but the fact that he debuted in his first season and competed well is a terrific sign.
But recruitment of talent is definitely not an issue for Brisbane, they've got the academy, they're picking the right guys through the draft. They're better coached and we saw signs of that over the second half of the season with the way the youth was really kicking on and actually winning games despite the absence of many of their better players - Rich/Redden/Leuenberger/Brown(retired).

Brisbane certainly from a winning standpoint while they're not going to get the membership/attendance at games, they're a growing team and have the ability to become a strong team in a few years.
 

Tbone McGraw

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From a Brisbane Lions the business perspective I agree with you on Brisbane's position. They really struggle.

You are also right about the limited interest in AFL in QLD. It's the same story as in NSW, it's a rugby state.

Gold Coast I also agree are more advanced and more talented and that's why I'm not overall suggesting Brisbane will win a premiership. Sydney, GWS and Gold Coast long term should be the three top teams with Brisbane that fourth in theory.

On Brisbane their recruiting last year was terrific. Aish, Taylor mid draft who won the rising star. Gardiner can be a really good key defender. Robertson and Cutler also look like genuine long term players and further value picks. McStay as a KPP I still have a ? over but the fact that he debuted in his first season and competed well is a terrific sign.
But recruitment of talent is definitely not an issue for Brisbane, they've got the academy, they're picking the right guys through the draft. They're better coached and we saw signs of that over the second half of the season with the way the youth was really kicking on and actually winning games despite the absence of many of their better players - Rich/Redden/Leuenberger/Brown(retired).

Brisbane certainly from a winning standpoint while they're not going to get the membership/attendance at games, they're a growing team and have the ability to become a strong team in a few years.
Mate, i live in sydney. GWS are in big trouble but are massively being propped up by the afl. Nobody gives a s**t about them.

Swans are fine. Very smart club. Buddy deal was brilliant for them.

I don't really know the qld landscape but how can Brisbane possibly compete with Gold Coast.

3 clubs i worry about and they are St Kilda, Bulldogs and Brisbane.

I may be wrong.
 
Mate, i live in sydney. GWS are in big trouble but are massively being propped up by the afl. Nobody gives a s**t about them.

Swans are fine. Very smart club. Buddy deal was brilliant for them.

I don't really know the qld landscape but how can Brisbane possibly compete with Gold Coast.

3 clubs i worry about and they are St Kilda, Bulldogs and Brisbane.

I may be wrong.

St Kilda in particular eh, really look like they're up shits creek in many respects. Although the if Boyd falls remarkably short of producing on his contract at the Doggies there could be serious repercussions. Brisbane aren't in a great shape off-field but I don't think they're in the same bracket as the other two.
 
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