News Chris Pelchen quits!

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Oh I wasn't referring to your opinion on CP, you might be correct. But you have always flipped
flopped your opinions (conviction pfft) to the negative. So I'm pretty sure if CP had stayed you'd be bagging the club about it and how he let RS go who is a star (at least this week).

Lots of people, myself included, have moved over to BigFooty as SS turned into a shitslinging wankfest of *******tery, it would be nice not to have to find a third forum.
Don't worry man, our mods are awesome, and you'll be valued here, without the crap.

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elizabeth-berkley-im-so-excited.jpg Haha I've been a long time reader (used to post on bigfooty a decade ago) and understand not everyone agrees with each other. But the ways of disagreeing do seem to be amicable on this site and not another.

Don't worry man, our mods are awesome, and you'll be valued here, without the crap.

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On reflection it really isn't that big deal he has left. He came in at a really tough time for the club. He has re-calibrated our list and payment structure to set us up for a tilt in the coming years. We are on the verge of the second draft in a row where we finally hold some early picks. This will bring in more quality. Next year, no matter what because our performances won't be improving on the field much, we will be also bringing in even more young blokes with pedigree. Pelchen's work is done and we've got a load of competent recruiting people at the club now. So we were going to pay him 400k for what exactly? When you think of it, a smart move by the club.
 

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Well as I thought The Pelicans statement that our list is about 90-95% of that of the Hawks is being bashed already (Terry "The List Manager" Wallace) has had a crack on SEN.

But at closer inspection I think he has a point.
Hawthorn[12]
B:

27 Stephen Gilham
Gilbert24 Trent Croad
Delaney18 Brent Guerra
Geary
HB:

14 Grant Birchall
Newnes15 Luke Hodge
Petracca4 Rick Ladson
Savage
C:

3 Jordan Lewis
Dunstan5 Sam Mitchell (c)
Billings11 Clinton Young
Ross
HF:

7 Michael Osborne
Acres23 Lance Franklin

33 Cyril Rioli
Saunders
F:

6 Mark Williams
Tom Lee2 Jarryd Roughead
White30 Campbell Brown
Bruce
Foll:

39 Robert Campbell
Hickey12 Brad Sewell
Armitage10 Chance Bateman
J Steven
Int:

31 Stuart Dew
Wright8 Xavier Ellis
Webster34 Brent Renouf
Longer
9 Shane Crawford
Murdoch
Coach:

Alastair Clarkson
Richo

Obviously a gaping hole at CHF but this team is without picks 20 & 21 this year, a full draft next year and FA's from 2016.

This 2008 premiership team has been added to over the following 6 years to keep it improving, if we stay course there is no reason why we can't do the same.
 
Obviously a gaping hole at CHF but this team is without picks 20 & 21 this year, a full draft next year and FA's from 2016.

This 2008 premiership team has been added to over the following 6 years to keep it improving, if we stay course there is no reason why we can't do the same.

The bolded can't be repeated enough. We still have a lot of talent to add over the next 14 months beacuse we're not moving from the foot of the ladder. People getting their knickers in a twist about our list now as if our list building strategy ended when Pelchen left are being a touch melodramatic.
 
On reflection it really isn't that big deal he has left. He came in at a really tough time for the club. He has re-calibrated our list and payment structure to set us up for a tilt in the coming years. We are on the verge of the second draft in a row where we finally hold some early picks. This will bring in more quality. Next year, no matter what because our performances won't be improving on the field much, we will be also bringing in even more young blokes with pedigree. Pelchen's work is done and we've got a load of competent recruiting people at the club now. So we were going to pay him 400k for what exactly? When you think of it, a smart move by the club.

Don't think that we can attribute our decline to CP. we have those picks because we were heading for a cliff since 2010. either way, we would find ourselves where we are.

On the other hand, it's all about how we come out of our predicament that matters. Additional elite youth and a balanced salary cap can only be a good thing.

Our list was screwed due to poor recruiting from 2006 onwards, and our cap was screwed further back when GT did the contracts.
 
Because we kept our premiership window open for a massive 6 or so years, but in the end the list was depleted.
If you think Goddard, or DalSanto were going to carry us , I think you are delusional.
So we have bottomed out slighly quicker, but we have rebuilt stronger.

agreed. we were heading for the inevitable cliff. All that has happened is that we have sped up the process so that we can come out of it sooner rather than later. And we held on to said players, this year would have happened in 2016.

short term pain for long term gain is how I see it.
 
agreed. we were heading for the inevitable cliff. All that has happened is that we have sped up the process so that we can come out of it sooner rather than later. And we held on to said players, this year would have happened in 2016.

short term pain for long term gain is how I see it.

I'd been getting anxious about the draft for years. ( Brad Howard FFS ). But it was 2008 that I think we fell off the deep end.
Collingwood drafted their way to a premiership that year.
You had to be talented to wash out in that draft. ( StKilda , Melbourne and Richmond came close ).
Just think how handy even second teir talents like Mitch Robinson or Luke Shuey would have been in 09/10.

Can't blame Pelican for that, and when he did arrive he had to act desperately, it was too late for a measured approach.
 
Fabulous little analysis by SS's bergholt :

Have a look at his net results.

Basically he was left with a basket case list to build from. When he joined us in 2011 we had the oldest, most experienced list in the comp. Next year we'll be right down the bottom on both measures. Someone had to make that happen.

Look at the guys he delisted or retired:

Delisted:
Cahill, Clarke, Crocker, Gamble, Gram, Heyne, Johnson, Jones, Ledger, Peake, Polo, A Smith, Winmar, Andreoli (r), Archer (r), Ferguson (r)
(also Dennis-Lane, Dunell, Lever, Milera, Saad, Staley (r) who were picked up during his reign)
Retired:
Baker, Blake, Eddy, Gardiner, Hayes, Koschitzke, McQualter, Milne (also Maister who was picked up during his reign)

Obviously a few stars at the end of their careers but mostly spuds who were on the list before he arrived at the club. There's probably 20 guys there who are the right age to still be on our list if they were any good. They're not and that's not Pelchen's fault. He had a lot of work to do.

That said, he lost others as well:

Free Agents: Dal Santo, Goddard, Gwilt
Traded Out: Cripps, Lynch, McEvoy, Stanley, Walsh
Lost: Dawson

A lot more quality there. The argument against Pelchen is that he didn't get full value for these guys. I'm not sure I agree with that but there's certainly a case to be made. So the question is who did he get in return?

Traded In: Bruce, Delaney, Hickey, Lee, Longer, Savage (also Dennis-Lane, Milera, Saad who are gone)
Free Agent: Roberton

There are seven guys here who have every chance of being mainstays of the club for a period. Yes, Roberton had a disappointing season and Lee is very much at the crossroads. But one way or another there's some talent here. Probably no superstars though. Hopefully the stars are here:

Drafted - top 25:
pick 1 2014, Billings (3), Dunstan (18), Acres (19), pick 21 2014, pick 22 2014, Wright (24), Ross (25), White (25)
Drafted - later:
Markworth (35), Newnes (37), Murdoch (40), pick 41 2014, Webster (42), Saunders (43), Pierce (75) (also Lever (60), Maister (68) who are gone)
Drafted - rookies:
Shenton (r), Minchington (r), Templeton (r), Weller (r), Holmes (r) (also Dunell (r), Staley (r) who are gone)

Obviously some good/very good players, a bunch who the jury's still out on. Only a couple of potential stars. So it's really going to come down seriously to picks 1, 21 and 22 this time around. If we get Rising Star nominations from two of them next year (like this year) then the picture will look pretty rosy.


Look, it's way too early to judge. In five years we'll know a lot more, in ten we'll know everything. But right now there are some serious unknowns. If you don't rate Lee and Murdoch and Hickey etc then obviously you're feeling like Pelchen did a terrible job. If you do rate our kids and think they can be very good players then you do. I don't reckon either position is really rational - we just don't know enough yet.
 
Yes, bergholt is my fave from ss as well.

His Analysis on Stanley was brilliant
 
f ruck-forwards are so crucial then every team must have one. Let's have a look:

30+ hitouts per game

Sandilands: 39 + 8 goals total
Goldstein: 35 + 10
Jacobs: 35 + 7
Jamar: 32 + 7
Lobbe: 31 + 6
Minson: 36 + 4
Mumford: 36 + 4
Warnock: 34 + 4

These guys ruck all day and don't kick heaps of goals.

20-30 hitouts per game

Ryder: 26 + 20
Naitanui: 22 + 9
Cox: 24 + 8
Giles: 24 + 7
McIntosh: 20 + 7
McEvoy: 21 + 6
Maric: 25 + 5
Derickx: 20 + 5
West: 24 + 4
Pyke: 28 + 3
Hickey: 24 + 3
Simpson: 22 + 3
Wood: 24 + 2
Smith: 23 + 2
Hampson: 29 + 1
Martin: 28 + 1
Longer: 26 + 1
Spencer: 29 + 0
Leuenberger: 23 + 0
Nicholls: 21 + 0

These guys are true rucks who often change forward. Ryder head and shoulders above the rest as the only true ruck-forward. No-one else kicked more than 10 goals for the year.

10-20 hitouts per game

Hale: 16 + 22
Lycett: 14 + 13
Clarke: 12 + 12
Ceglar: 19 + 8
Witts: 19 + 8
Gawn: 15 + 4
Campbell: 10 + 4
Grundy: 18 + 3
Bellchambers: 15 + 3

These guys don't get enough hitouts to be considered true rucks - or maybe they're just not very good at it. Hale obviously is a true forward-ruck now, Lycett and Clarke can legitimately claim that as well.

less than 10 hitouts per game

Tippett: 6 + 34
Dixon: 5 + 24
Vickery: 7 + 23
White: 6 + 20
Day: 5 + 19
Stanley: 8 + 18
Casboult: 7 + 15
Griffiths: 8 + 12
Daw: 7 + 6
Blicavs: 9 + 5
Trengove: 5 + 1

Mostly forwards who wander into the ruck sometimes. This is the only place you see solid numbers of goals being kicked, but obviously very few hitouts.


I reckon there's about one ruck-forward in the entire AFL, maybe a few more true forward-rucks. Most of the guys who can kick goals can't get their hands on it in the ruck - or at least don't get more than a few minutes a quarter to do so.

Most likely we'll play two rucks and hope that Hickey or Longer do as well as Giles or Ceglar or Witts - kicking 8 or 10 goals for the year would be a win for either of them. Doesn't seem that likely though.
 

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At the end of the day, if we were the Collingwood or WCE of the AFL, we could afford to keep on Pelchen and bolster our football department as well. I'm worried that our lack of money is going to put us so far behind the pack, that the elusive flag will continue to be a dream and not a reality.

It's not enough to have the pieces on the field, we need to have an effective football department to compete, imo.
 
At the end of the day, if we were the Collingwood or WCE of the AFL, we could afford to keep on Pelchen and bolster our football department as well. I'm worried that our lack of money is going to put us so far behind the pack, that the elusive flag will continue to be a dream and not a reality.

It's not enough to have the pieces on the field, we need to have an effective football department to compete, imo.
wasnt there talk of clubs having a 'cap' on football department spending?
To try and even things up a bit.
was that just talk or was it something that will be introduced eventually?
 
wasnt there talk of clubs having a 'cap' on football department spending?
To try and even things up a bit.
was that just talk or was it something that will be introduced eventually?
It's all talk at this stage, but yes, there was discussion around bringing in either a cap or taxing the rich clubs. There was considerable criticism from the usual suspects of course, and the AFL exists to cater to the Eddie McGuire's of the world. :mad:

Can you tell i'm a bit bitter?
 
His job was to make the hard calls on players that weren't going to be part of the next push, whilst also providing insight into what a premiership list needs to look like, without having a direct influence on which players specifically would be on that list.

I don't think McEvoy, Gwilt, Jones etc were difficult decisions. The Dal one was, but at the same time it sounds like Saints kind of felt it was 50/50 whether they were better off with the pick. When North were being awkward over Delaney, and Dal made noises about not being entirely happy at current Saints situation (Watters mostly), then it made the decision easier.
And Stanley is quite a difficult decision, but at the same time pick 21 is decent.

I feel the hardest part is still to come. Deciding, for example:

- if we keep Jack or let him walk in the hope it helps us land a bigger bounty from GWS
- if a still-developing player like Saunders should be packaged into GWS (or other) deals
- if we're going to keep both Hickey and Longer (who seem quite similar) or deal one, and for what

Some of our current youngsters that we have grown fond of aren't going to be best-22 in 2018-20. We might need to try and decide (guess!) who those might be as early as 2015. In Pelchen fashion, in the understanding some of them will need to move at some point, we should move them whilst they have currency.
 
Fabulous little analysis by SS's bergholt :

Having started a similar list of ins/outs myself, I'm glad to see someone else already did it better!

And it leads me to feel that it backs up something I was wondering about Pelchen. It seems like we did not too bad in the draft, especially considering our lower picks. The players I have a few doubts about are those picked in the 30s, Hickey, Longer and Lee based on production, injuries and a projection of what they could become (considering both best and worst-case).

I would say that so far there's a strong argument to be made that Pelchen would have been better served using the draft picks rather than bringing in Hickey and Lee. He gave up Dal for a pick, and McEvoy, and Stanley. Yet valued getting a player in their early 20s a higher priority with Hickey and Lee.

To an extent I understand the desire to get in players within a nice age range, hoping they would be still young but mature enough to contribute, but given Hickey has averaged 7.5 games a year and we have only seen fleeting good things from Lee, I can't say I could consider those to have been good moves.
It's not easy to calculate, as not doing one deal at a point in time has knock-on effects on other deals. But I wonder how we'd look if we'd picked another 2-3 players in the top 20 picks instead of having likes of Hickey and Lee and Saad and Milera.

I do feel the lack of talent in the club in their early 20s, due to previous blown drafts, caused Pelchen to panic a little and bring in players from other places in their 20s, in the hope it would fill the gap. I think Hickey is the only one likely, and in the process it's cost us at least 2 shots at a player who might be as promising as a Dunstan or Acres.
 
Lee is the same height as Riewoldt. Gunston is 193cm, and at barely any height differential from the two.

I've seen this discussion on this board a good few times, often not involving myself. I don't care what the website says, Roo isn't 193 and Roo and Lee are not the same height.
It's not just height, it's size, muscle, how you use that body. Lee is not a traditional Key Position player. Being good with the ground ball and not being a behemoth you'd think he could run his marker into the ground like Roo, but he doesn't appear to have the fitness for that.

Well clearly some of the players haven't shown much because they are young and were playing behind Dal Santo (until 2013), Hayes, Jones et al.

To an extent. But Webster for example has played 22 games, all of them at the back. They don't even put him on the wing when he plays VFL.
If we're going to get these guys playing midfield, just do it. Last year we would start with Ray and Joey on the wings, and within 10 minutes Joey was pushing into the middle and Ray was spare at the back. So we were effectively playing without wings. Neither wonder we can't spread! We kick to the forwards coming up the ground but there are no wide speedy players to support them and break forwards.

Shenton was a mature rookie for 2 years for a reason. He broke through that. Lets give him a chance. He might not make it, but we don't have other readymade options to cover for those spots in the short term.

I'd never get down on Shenton - just being serviceable at AFL for 2-3 years is fine for someone who came with a low investment and plenty of development needed. He can be our 4th choice HB for the next 3 seasons and we'll have done fine out of him.

However too often on this board I see people raving about how good we look and how the hard part of the rebuild is done. They list young players on the assumption they'll all develop in the best possible way (like we thought Siposs and Dunell would) and point out our depth is so great they can't pick a best 22. When pointed out we have issues in the midfield coming it's pointed out that "Webster/Acres/Wright/Roberton/Templeton (delete as required) will move into there" without there being any evidence they've even tried it (bar Roberton with 1 anonymous game), let alone guarantees it would work.

Our list is dire, and by the time 2018 comes and we're meant to be good frankly I think even 3 or 4 of our 'promising youngsters' will be overtaken and potentially gone. I am a massive fan of Saunders for example, but if we got offered a 2nd rounder for him next year I think there's a chance we'd take it.
Just having young players won't be enough as the rebuild progresses - as I mentioned in my prior post, this time next year our KPDs will be Delaney and maybe Bruce if he hasn't become a forward. No depth at all. And a draft which is meant to be midfield-heavy.
If we are at pick 1 or 2 again and the top 6 players are midfielders, we're not going to get value in that pick.
I'm as hopeful as the next guy that we get Cameron and Shiel and whatever else we can get from GWS. But if Cameron nominates the Pies for example, and there's no worthwhile KPDs we can trade for, we're back to struggling again for talls at both ends. An undermanned defence with the ball raining in on them. I don't want to go back to that.
 
Our list is not dire Ike, that kind of wording talks as if there is no hope for anyone on there to make it which just isnt true and I do think you are overly pessimistic about it all. 2018 is 4 years and 4 drafts away, yes not all of our kids are going to make it however Ive seen most of them have impact in their small amount of game time so far. If you cant build upon that or even hope from that then there is no point supporting StKilda.

As for picks 12 and 13, both have gone on to be fringe players at their respective clubs and both have less games then almost all the players we took from those trades.
 
Our list is not dire Ike, that kind of wording talks as if there is no hope for anyone on there to make it.

Dire maybe isn't the right word, but we're last for a really good reason. The way some people talk you'd think we were in GCS position.


As for picks 12 and 13, both have gone on to be fringe players at their respective clubs and both have less games then almost all the players we took from those trades.

As I said it's difficult trying to rewrite history as one trade not taking place has a domino effect, but in basic terms I don't think we'd have necessarily picked those players.
Jaksch was well thought of enough that we went after him now, if we'd had him on the list already we could have been developing him ourselves whilst having better depth - Bruce offered us plenty this year and Jaksch could have been in the side with him had things fallen differently .
 
Dire maybe isn't the right word, but we're last for a really good reason. The way some people talk you'd think we were in GCS position.

As I said it's difficult trying to rewrite history as one trade not taking place has a domino effect, but in basic terms I don't think we'd have necessarily picked those players.
Jaksch was well thought of enough that we went after him now, if we'd had him on the list already we could have been developing him ourselves whilst having better depth - Bruce offered us plenty this year and Jaksch could have been in the side with him had things fallen differently .

We are last really because the majority of our list is under 40 games of experience. Thats really not an indicator of talent or potential but more of maturity/fitness and experience.

Jakchs was interesting to us yes, but not enough for us to give up anything of note for him. I do trust our managment and recruitment team and they obviously saw him as another potential player.. but not one certain enough to give up another spot/draft pick for.
 
We are last really because the majority of our list is under 40 games of experience. Thats really not an indicator of talent or potential but more of maturity/fitness and experience.

Jakchs was interesting to us yes, but not enough for us to give up anything of note for him. I do trust our managment and recruitment team and they obviously saw him as another potential player.. but not one certain enough to give up another spot/draft pick for.

There are going to be draft hits and misses. The best we can hope for is a less than average number of misses.
If the Lee deal turns out to be a miss so be it. But in evaluating the team's strategy we need to look at the overall picture, the total number of "keepers" we end up getting, even if some of the individual trades don't work out.
The Saad/Milera deal was worth doing, since both were worth a good shot. The Saad situation turned bad, not due to any fault in the drafting strategy.
 
Was just saying, that given the supposed good outcome from our draft picks maybe we ought to have tried to use more picks than trade. But it's clear the Saints staff felt they had to try and plug the gap of players in their early 20s. Every deal done in that time is justifiable. I even agree that the TDL trade made sense at the time.
However it does seem to me that some of the decisions CP made could be questioned; he obviously regards draft selections very highly given the urge to get more and lose players for them. But in those earlier years he did the opposite by giving up draft picks.

In isolation it kind of makes more sense to use the picks in the early years then as they develop, maybe trade picks for players.
 
I do feel the lack of talent in the club in their early 20s, due to previous blown drafts, caused Pelchen to panic a little and bring in players from other places in their 20s, in the hope it would fill the gap. I think Hickey is the only one likely, and in the process it's cost us at least 2 shots at a player who might be as promising as a Dunstan or Acres.

Why are you acting like Hickey and Lee are the only players we got out of those trades? We got Wright, White, Murdoch and Saunders PLUS Hickey and Lee for picks 12,13 and Cripps. I don't think panic had anything to do with it. Lee and Hickey both filled needs (fwd and ruck) while also being a good fit our young age group. It was part of a clear strategy to bring in more talent as quickly as possible and turn over the list.
 

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