Analysis Rise From Your Grave! The 2015 Season

"Welcome to your doom!" - Polo McLachlan

Back in the eighties, there was this arcade game called Altered Beast. It was a side scrolling beat-em-up that was set in ancient Greece or Rome or some s**t. Anyway, the point of the game was to kill these white two headed dog/wolf things and collect floaty balls of light that would boost your character, who started off being pretty s**t, until finally you could go Super Saiyan and kick some major undead ass.

What does this have to do with the 2015 season? Not a lot on the surface, except for the fact that there's a few doubters who think we can make a fist of it because of how hard the draw is for us. They think we are weak, that our strength was in the relative ease of our draw in 2013 and last year. But if 2014 was about respect, 2015 is about retaliation.

It's time to settle some scores with everyone who has tried to * us. And the list is rather long. Let's look at the fixture, in five game blocks:


Round 1 - Fremantle, Patterson's Stadium

Stephen A Smith tells the story of when he compared LeBron James to Michael Jordan, back when he was still yet to win an NBA championship. He was sitting in traffic in Denver for the All Star game, and a black limousine pulls up next to him. The window winds down, and Charles Oakley, a retired player from the New York Knicks, is smiling at him from the other car. Suddenly, Jordan leans across from the other seat: "Don't you ever say something like that again! Six rings, Stephen A! Can he get one please?!"

It's that feeling I get when I hear Fremantle fans yap on about their club like they are some sort of powerhouse. In 2007, we went over there and ripped their still beating heart out and then sent them into a pit of fire like that bald dude from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom. These guys are going to come at us with everything they've got after their embarrassing performance in the semi-final. We're going to scuttle their season before it even starts.

Round 2 - Sydney, Adelaide Oval

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Adam Goodes, I'm glad you're going around again next year, because once again I get the chance to express my disdain for you as the dirty sniper anyone who knows anything about football regards you as. Sydney need to be taught a lesson and see what would have happened had we beaten Hawthorn in the preliminary final. Let's see how these campaigners do when it's a dry deck and we are playing them at the start of the season.

Round 3 - North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium

McLachlan: "Alright, let's take a look at Norf's requests for the fixture."
Lethlean: "All we've got is this butcher's paper, and written in crayon: Pls don't send us to play Port in Adelaide. We still have nightmares about that loss - B. Scott."

If Mohammed won't go to the mountain, then the mountain must go to Mohammed. Of course, once again Norf gets kissed on the dick with us having to play two tough games before meeting them, allowing them to over inflate their position in the football hierarchy. Well, not this ******* season, chumps. We can and will smash the s**t out of this overrated, delusional club. It makes me sick that we lose to these clowns as often as we do.

Round 4 - Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval - ANZAC Day

This is the sort of game you just have to be at to say "I was there" because you know it's going to be epic. A full strength Hawks vs a full strength Port Adelaide - Rocky Balboa vs Apollo Creed, the rematch. I'm getting pumped just thinking about how fantastic a spectacle this match is going to be, because Port plays the same style that Geelong did in 2007-2009 - the style that Hawthorn had so much trouble with. And with the added occasion of ANZAC day, and at night? Chills.

Round 5 - Adelaide, Adelaide Oval

You just know they'll be 4-0 and talking a flag and/or finals at this stage of the year. It's like death and taxes. Walsh will be the second coming, everything will be coming up Milhouse, all will be right with the world...and then Port Adelaide is going to come and roll over the top of them by 73 points. There is nothing, nothing in the world better than smashing the crap out of self-entitled Crow supporters, and this go doubly so for a guy who needs to learn that there's a world of difference between being a gun assistant coach and a gun head coach.


That's the first five games out of the way. From an analytical standpoint, you'd say 3-2 would be a pass mark. Even 2-3 wouldn't be the end of the world with that sort of draw. But you know what? * Gillon and his tweed wearing groupies. 5-0.

Now we get into what I like to call the consolidation rounds - everyone is up and firing, and it's time to bank some wins against less fancied opponents, with one campaigner of a team in the middle of them:


Round 6 - West Coast, Adelaide Oval


If I hear one more West Coast fan talk about that Hartlett non-mark as if he was Leo Barry in the dying moments of the grand final...I'm glad we've only got these guys once, because quite frankly if we can't beat them at home, we're not going to do anything in finals, as West Coast aren't very good.

Round 7 - Brisbane, The Gabba

When we flogged the Lions at Adelaide Oval, most of their team was out through injury, so don't mistake this for being an easy game. But honestly, these are the sort of games we should be putting away as a comfortable win. Brisbane should be looking elsewhere to climb up the ladder. Not saying it won't be tough, though.

Round 8 - Richmond, Adelaide Oval

You know those inflatable punching bags that bounce back when you hit them, no matter how hard you hit them?

This game will ensure that no complacency creeps in to the behaviors that the players set during this relatively soft run of matches. Anyone who feels sorry for these *s after the ass reaming we gave them in the elimination final, just go and have a look at their board. A disgraceful s**t stain of a club and supporters who deserve every single smashing we give them. These are people who believe that we were successful last season because we didn't have any injuries - even though we were missing Trengove and Carlile, our two KPD, when we played them at Etihad. They excuse their own club by denigrating the performance of others, by saying that expecting consistency is arrogance. Richmond are like Mitch Green to our Mike Tyson - always yapping about how they could have beaten us if. If, if, if. My response? When? As in 'When are you going to actually win a final?'

Round 9 - Melbourne, Traeger Park (Alice Springs)

Back to games that have no meaning other than just banking wins. Don't get complacent, stick to the structures and right behaviors, and we'll be fine. Premiership teams do not drop games like this.

Round 10 - Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval

No Cooney, no Griffen. A club that's on a full rebuild with a new coach. See Melbourne, Brisbane and West Coast. But again - no complacency. Treat every game exactly the same.


That's block two. At this stage, we should easily be in the positive column. A realist would have us 7-3 or 8-2. An optimist, 9-1.

Me? 10-0. Why? Because * the haters, that's why. Especially Richmond supporters. Onto the next block:


Round 11 - Geelong, Adelaide Oval

Thanks to Adelaide having the bye, we get a nice run into playing the Cats at home on a Friday night. And when it's time for payback, it's time for payback. Geelong will have to fly over to West Coast, back to Melbourne and then finally over to us in the proceeding rounds. It has all the hallmarks of being the sort of game where some old scores are finally settled...as a side point, I hope Motlop plays so I can wave a huge novelty finger at him.

Round 12 - Carlton, MCG

Our sole game at the G for the regular season. The one good thing about this game is that at least we'll get goal kicking practice, as Malthouse isn't the type of coach to flood if things aren't working out for him (and you gotta give him credit for that). Since it's the last game before the bye, I actually expect this to be a little tougher than most will be expecting, but still a blow out since Carlton are in rebuild mode (and Judd will probably be crocked by this time).

Round 13 - BYE

Round 14 - Sydney, SCG

Rest and recharge during the bye week, because we hit the ground running. Sydney come off a six day break having played Richmond on a Friday the week before, while we get to hit them with everything we've got and grind them into the ground. This is the perfect time to meet them, and if you are going to beat the Swans, it will be at this moment.

Round 15 - Collingwood, Adelaide Oval

Thursday Night. Might have take Friday off for this one, as it's always fun to beat Collingwood, and many drinks will be had. Again, we get the Pies after they've played Fremantle away and Hawthorn the two weeks before, so they'll be ripe for a thumping when they come to play us. If dear Bruce thought Adelaide was loud when they played the Pies, he'll need to book in for a cochlear implant when we deafen him with the amount of noise we generate this match.


Block Three is actually not too bad when you analyze it. At this stage, we should be looking at 10-4 or 11-3. I'm going with 13-1. (With the loss coming against Sydney)

We're on the home stretch now...


Round 16 - Adelaide, Adelaide Oval

I'm starting to think that this draw isn't as hard as people think it is. Again, we get to play a side who has had to travel to Western Australia to play the Eagles while we get to rest up at home over the weekend after playing Collingwood. And again, the Crows are due for a smashing of monumental proportions because of it. It is our home game, after all.

Round 17 - Essendon, Etihad Stadium

The Ryder cup. By this stage, any delusions that Essendon is a premiership contender should have been assuaged, but you just know there will be a bit of ill feeling in this match. Hopefully by this stage the ASADA saga will well and truly be over, and we can just concentrate on the footy. I dearly hope that Paddy kicks the winning goal to the boos and jeers of the supporters that used to cheer him on, but I can actually see this game being a loss for some reason. Mainly because people think you're arrogant if you say you're going to beat all the teams you should...

Round 18 - St. Kilda, Adelaide Oval

Sorry Richo, but we're going to smash you again. Especially if we do lose to Essendon...and Richo, when I say I'm sorry...I'm not really sorry. campaigner.

Round 19 - Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium

If things go to plan, we should be able to rest some players for the games against the Saints and this one. In fact, this is the middle of a three game period whereby some players should be making their debuts for the team. But if things go pear shaped, it can also be the period where we pick ourselves off the canvas.

Round 20 - Greater Western Sydney, Adelaide Oval

Ho-hum. That is all. GWS is now looking like the team they should have been at the start instead of collecting draft picks like Tazos, so it'll be tougher than it has been.


Block Four - a couple of banana peels, but nothing too drastic. 14-5 would be the pass mark for a premiership quality team. I have us at 17-2.

Now the last three games...


Round 21 - Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium

Since by this time we'll know whether we are a chance to host a qualifying final or not, this is probably the game to travel for. Friday night, reigning premiers...premiers who will also know if they have a shot at history and winning three in a row. Be there. Let's show the pricks at AFL House that this game should have been at the MCG.

Round 22 - Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium

Ken rates Gold Coast's list, and so do I. But if these punks think they are going to shoot by us on the way to a premiership when they still rely heavily on Ablett, they've got another thing coming. That being said, they will have a lot to play for - they should be expecting finals at the very least next year.

Round 23 - Fremantle, Adelaide Oval

Excellent preparation for a finals assault. Don't have to travel, get match hardened with a settled best 22 coming into finals...hopefully we have a top two spot stitched up by this game, but any opportunity to beat the crap out of a Lyon coached team should be taken.


So there you have it. Realistically, we should be looking at a 15-7 season at worst. 16-6/17-5 is a good season.

My prediction? 18-4, top two finish. Power up, bitches.
 
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Awesome write-up.
It had me angry, confident, hopeful, nostalgic (about Altered Beast) and aroused all at once.

You know those inflatable punching bags that bounce back when you hit them, no matter how hard you hit them?
^Also, this is perfect. :D
 
Truly outstanding. You are right, it doesn't look so tough when you break it down.

Oh and Altered Beast....pffffttt. Double Dragon FTW

Edit: loving some of the new rivalries we are building (eg. Richmond, Essendope). Hope we kick their ASSES!!

Yeah, but in Double Dragon you could already scythe through your enemies with the trusty elbow of doom...
 
I think it all depends on the start. If we can go 3-2 from the first five games I'd be pretty happy with that. Then we should be winning our next 7 games. 15-7 will be on the edge of par for us imo.
 
Good read, but purely on degree of difficulty - you can still play very well and lose to the upper echelon - I've got us in that loathesome logjam for 4-8 again.
 

Portia

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18-4 is a Choco + his players type season. I dont think we are that good yet. When we get a CHF like Tredders and rucks like Lade Brogan and Primus and a backline as mean and experiened as Wangers Wilbur Wakes Mony Harwick and co we might get there. Our mids stack up nicely against 2002-04 era.
 
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PJ Power

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It's not a tough draw, because we know we are good enough to beat anyone anywhere.
We are incredibly well coached, well prepared and well stocked with talent.
In the past two years, the only teams we haven't managed to defeat are Essendon and the Kangaroos and that honestly does my head in, as I can't understand why we haven't brought our best footy against these two overhyped sides.

Still, I love our draw. Under Hinkley in 2013 and 2014, we have played our best, most exhilarating football in the first five rounds and in the finals. In 2015, I want us to reach a much higher level of consistency between rounds 8 and 18. I expect us to cope better with the heavier grounds and the inevitable injuries to important players, especially one J. Trengove.

Our 2015 Fixture excites me. Bring it on. Any team, anywhere.
 
18-4 is a Choco + his players type season. I dont think we are that good yet. When we get a CHF like Tredders and rucks like Lade Brogan and Primus and a backline as mean and experiened as Wangers Wilbur Wakes Mony Harwick and co we might get there. Our mids stack up nicely against 2002-04 era.

Agreed, but the inclusion of Gold Coast and GWS has diluted the talent pool to the extent where I don't think you need guns on every line to have that sort of dominance. That's why Hawthorn could still win the flag with the injuries they had, and why Geelong still made top four despite having a horrid percentage.

We don't have to beat 2004...we just have to beat the sides we play in 2015 - and believe me, we don't need much improvement to do that.
 
Essendon 2013 + 2014 bad goal kicking especially last quarter of both games cost us.

.North is timing give how small the margins have been. 2013 Ken hurts his back and Richo coaches. Free kick count 18-53 doesnt help. 2014 showdown let down. The players were under enormous presssure to win first game at new Adelaide Oval. The club let the players celebrate - they went hard. Probably would have lost to anyone the next week.
 
Agreed, but the inclusion of Gold Coast and GWS has diluted the talent pool to the extent where I don't think you need guns on every line to have that sort of dominance. That's why Hawthorn could still win the flag with the injuries they had, and why Geelong still made top four despite having a horrid percentage.

We don't have to beat 2004...we just have to beat the sides we play in 2015 - and believe me, we don't need much improvement to do that.

Its more about the travel factor. Vic sides have 21-1, 20-2 and 19-3 seasons because they dont travel much. Geelong lost 4 of their 5 games when traveling ie in 4 of the 5 games they jumped on a plane. The only one they won was GWS late in the year.

Only west coast in 1991 has been able to go better than 18-4 when they had 19-3 season.

Dominate non Vic sides who jump on a plane 10 or 11 times a year have 16-6, 17-5 or 18-4 type seasons. Some do worse but dominate September.
 

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Loved the post / thread Janus. Great summary of our draw with hilarious comments that had me choking on my lunch. Pretty much agreed with you on everything.
 
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