Opinion 50 Under 50

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HTPunter

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Sep 27, 2014
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Yes, the thread you've been waiting for is finally here...a list of the top 50 players in the AFL right now under 50 years of age, so basically excluding Brent Harvey, Dustin Fletcher and Shannon Hurn.

No, but really this is HTPunter's list of 50 players who have played under 50 games.

The ratings are subjective. There is a combination of 'what they have achieved' and 'what they could achieve'. This leads to what will probably be perceived as flawed logic at times, but that's because for some I can't justify having them too high because I do not believe they have performed enough, and others I can't justify having higher because I don't believe they will develop into stars. Games played in total is not a huge issue for the general ranges of spots (say 1st-10th etc) but it did help differentiate when it came down to 1 over the other.

EDIT: One important thing I forgot to mention - players must have played at least 1 game at AFL level. This rules out Jesse Hogan, who I found it incredibly hard to place, and so it was easier to rule him out altogether with this on-the-run rule change. It also means my thread is viable for more than a couple of weeks, considering the national draft is coming up and guys like Christian Petracca and Peter Wright will be on an AFL list soon enough.
 
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HTPunter

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50. Jeremy McGovern - 13 games, 13 goals - The young Eagles forward, affectionately known as 'Jezza' or 'The Gov', was a revelation in 2014 for the Eagles. While still developing, he fits into his frame of 195cm and 96kg quite nicely. His potential was shown when he was the match-winner against the Gold Coast, playing a vital role at both ends of the ground late in the game. He's still very much potential, but there is a lot to like about this guy.
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49. Ben Kennedy - 20 games, 13 goals - The diminutive midfielder has enjoyed 2 part seasons in the AFL so far, as he still looks to develop his game. He has shown though in his short career an ability to use the ball effectively and deliver it inside 50. His stats underestimate his performance and ability, as he averages approximately 50% TOG so far. When this increases proportionally to his increased development into an AFL-level players body, watch out.
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48. Jackson Merrett - 28 games, 8 goals - The zippy midfielder is a hard one to get an idea on. I've watched him destroy Carlton with a 35 disposal 8 inside 50s game, but only a few weeks later struggle to get double figure disposals. Having said that, he has shown a number of times he is at home with the speed of AFL, and has earned a spot on this list. His next step is to put together a season of consistent footy. He will start 2015 as a 22 year old, with a bit of stability at Essendon it may allow him to focus on his footy and concentrate on ending up as the best player he can be, rather than needing to do it all 'here and now'.
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47. Jake Lloyd - 21 games, 8 goals - A solid midfielder who has worked hard to get a spot on an AFL list, undertaking a training schedule since his early teens described as 'manical' and 'spartan'. This training paid off in 2014, with Lloyd being able cement a spot in a Sydney side that made the grand final. He enjoyed a season out of the limelight for most of the year, but began to receive his dues towards the end as his work was acknowledged by those outside the club. If there's one bloke I won't mind underestimating and seeing bolt up this list, it will be this determined, hard-working kid.
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46. Aaron Black - 47 games, 63 goals - Did not enjoy his 2014 season at all, and as such he may be a polarising figure at number 46, however, the talent cannot be denied. Going in for surgery post-season may provide an excuse, if not a reason, but there's no doubting that the North Melbourne Football Club and it's supporters will be expecting more of his 2013 performances come 2015. He earns his spot on this list through those 2013 performances, in which the highlight was a 17 disposal 7 mark 5 goal game. Those behind him on this list were all miles behind at the conclusion of the 2013 season, as was Ben Brown, Mason Wood and Jarrad Waite. As it stands, the overwhelming view from opposition supporters would be that he has been rated too highly. It remains to be seen where he will stand in the future, but he has the talent to make something of himself.
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If Bontempelli isn't #1 then the whole thing is rigged. :p

In all seriousness, interesting idea and decent list so far (Except I wouldn't have Black in there, but you touched on that). Good to see Lloyd get some recognition as well.
 

HTPunter

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Decent analysis thus far - very much looking forward to the rest of it (and hopefully learning a thing or two about players I am less familiar with). Subsribed.

Thanks! Hope it is an informative thread and gets some views.

If Bontempelli isn't #1 then the whole thing is rigged. :p

In all seriousness, interesting idea and decent list so far (Except I wouldn't have Black in there, but you touched on that). Good to see Lloyd get some recognition as well.

You might be disappointed... ;) I fully expect some people to query my decisions, and I accept that I will not always be able to argue successfully in reply. It is awfully hard to gauge players accurately at this stage, considering some played well in 2013 and not 2014, some have only played in 2014, some have barely played at all etc. I don't claim to be a prophet or know-it-all, but the thread is all in a bit of fun and hopefully gets some discussion going along the way! :)
 

HTPunter

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45. Dane Rampe – 48 games, 4 goals – Rampe enjoyed a successful season in 2014 after he showed promise in his debut season. Picked up at #37 in the 2013 rookie draft, he has gone from strength to strength to become an integral part of the Sydney defence. It will be interesting to watch his game develop further in the coming years, as at 189cm and 89kg he is undersized and so it is unlikely he will progress into a bonafide key defender. Still plays his role well and is not afraid to play on bigger, stronger opponents, having received plaudits already in his short career for beating those who have size on him.

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44. Taylor Duryea – 41 games, 6 goals – A back pocket in the mould of Brent Guerra, he has already played in a premiership. Will turn 24 in 2015 and was drafted in the 2009 National Draft, so he has spent more than enough time developing his game at lower levels. A solid player who hits his KPIs, he has a rocketing left foot on him and doesn’t take a step back from the contest. A player that Al Clarkson would love, I do not see his career ever taking off into stardom, but as a solid player who played a role in a premiership side (23 games for the year) he is worthy of a spot in the top 50.

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43. Tom Mitchell – 20 games, 13 goals – Tom, the highly rated son of Barry, is another player, who like Aaron Black, went backwards for a number of reasons in 2014. Injuries were amongst those reasons for Mitchell. When he played NEAFL, he performed very well, including a (world-record) 64 disposals in one match, however, his rating has suffered due to that even after a 29 disposal 13 tackle game against Richmond in round 23, he was not able to keep his spot for finals ahead of Craig Bird. They play different roles, but he obviously didn’t do enough to force the change. As a promising youngster, he will play with Hannebery, Parker, Bird, Heeney, Jones and Mills in the future, which may limit his ceiling as guys like Hannebery, Parker and Heeney are all already or likely to be bonafide stars. Yep, I've marked him harshly, but he's a hard player to get a read on. A resilient, tough footballer who will never take a step backwards.

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42. Jake Neade - 24 games, 21 goals - Young Indigenous flanker who can play forward and back, fulfilling both roles with distinction at times in the last two years. Enjoys the contest, tackling harder far beyond his small frame would imply. In terms of predicting his future playing performance, his speed, endurance and creativity would suggest he will end up as a very good player at Port Adelaide. If he can really nail his position in 2015, whether that be forward or down back, it will be a factor worth mentioning for the overall performance of Port Adelaide. A grand final perhaps beckons for Port. He had 28 disposals, 3 goals and 6 tackles in the finals against Richmond and Fremantle, showing that even with the increased speed and pressure of finals, and in spite of his small frame and inexperience, Neade has what it takes to become a very good footballer.

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41. Sam Docherty – 29 games, 8 goals – Known as one of the ‘go home 5’, the former number 12 draft pick averaged almost 18 disposals a game and kicked 7 goals playing off the half back flank. While generally regarded as a good user of the ball, I have a perception that he has a tendency to rush his ball use at times. I will freely admit I have not watched him closely enough as a junior or at AFL level to try and pretend I can make an accurate prediction on his likely ceiling or even the position he will play once fully developed. If he can develop into a solid midfielder I think Carlton will be pleased. Finished 9th in the Carlton Best & Fairest from just 16 games in 2014, showing that he plays to the liking of the coaches.

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HTPunter

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50. Jeremy McGovern (West Coast)
49. Ben Kennedy (Collingwood)
48. Jackson Merrett (Essendon)
47. Jake Lloyd (Sydney)
46. Aaron Black (North Melbourne)
45. Dane Rampe (Sydney)
44. Taylor Duryea (Hawthorn)
43. Tom Mitchell (Sydney)
42. Jake Neade (Port Adelaide)
41. Sam Docherty (Carlton)
 
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50. Jeremy McGovern (West Coast)
49. Ben Kennedy (Collingwood)
48. Jackson Merrett (Essendon)
47. Jake Lloyd (Sydney)
46. Aaron Black (North Melbourne)
45. Dane Rampe (Sydney)
44. Taylor Duryea (Hawthorn)
43. Tom Mitchell (Sydney)
42. Jake Neade (Port Adelaide)
41. Sam Docherty (Carlton)

When your list is done could you do me the pleasure of mentioning where you think Brad Hill would fit on the list as he unfortunately missed out by 1 game (and what a game it was - playing his 51st in the GF). Also, liking the list so far and think Black does deserve to be there on the basis of his 2013 alone.
 

HTPunter

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40. Josh Bruce – 24 games, 7 goals – Originally known as the first player to be signed up by Greater Western Sydney, back when they were an U18 club, he started to become more known when he requested a trade to St Kilda at the end of 2013 in search of greater opportunities. A key defender who can more than hold his own against more experienced opponents, he is one of the more impressive defenders in the league who have played under 50 games. He even went forward late in 2014, kicking multiple goals in consecutive weeks at VFL and then stepping up to the AFL with a 11 disposal 6 mark 3 goal game v Gold Coast. Another decision I expect to be contentious, but I rate this guy. Think he marks extremely well, with his ability to outmark a direct opponent one-on-one a highlight, he ended 2014 injured but is set to start full pre-season by December accounts, in which you can expect him to work on increasing his overall athleticism and size, and working on increasing his versatility which could become useful if Lee and White don’t kick on in the absence of Stanley. If he gets a decent haircut that you can set your watch to he will be an excellent player for the Saints for the next 10 years.
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39. Mark Blicavs – 45 games, 12 goals – Another one who will start 2015 older than you’d expect for this list, at 24 years old. He has shown versatility that not many others have shown so early in their career, being able to play ruck, key back, and as a roaming tall with his exceptional athleticism. I would think he is set for a key back position in the future, considering Rivers, Lonergan and Taylor are getting on. Despite his promising versatility, athleticism and the rapidness of which he picked up the finer points of the game, he still has a fair way to go I believe. He is still a mere student of the game, but with his size, athleticism (possibly only matched by Nic Naitanui and new teammate Rhys Stanley for a player of his size), the knowledge and ability to push through the limits and relative inexperience means he could quite easily end up achieving anything.
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38. Christian Salem – 12 games, 6 goals – At the start of the year, all the talk was around how Melbourne were screwed at the trade table when in effect Josh Kelly was traded for Dom Tyson and Christian Salem. By the end of the year, the trade was considered fair, and it wasn’t just due to Tyson. Salem showed that he was able to fulfil roles up forward outside of his normal midfield position. He kicked the winner in the upset win over Essendon, showing maturity beyond his years. Only averaged 7 disposals, but that was obviously due to his role as a sub as he developed. A better indicator of his ability would be the 32 disposals he racked up in the VFL, earning his debut in the AFL the week after. Of Lebanese origin, he is well-supported by his family, with his dad Alex yet to miss one of Christian’s games. Blessed with a superb kick and a calmness not seen in most footballers, his next step is to build his endurance and his size if he wants to break into the midfield.
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37. Jon Patton – 29 games, 34 goals – One of the most highly rated young forwards in the game, if I had made this thread during the season he would have been in consideration for the top 10. Unfortunately, on a gloomy August day, he did his ACL in his right knee for the second time whilst his teammates ran over the helpless Demons. While you have to take Dr Peter Larkins with a grain of salt, I do bow to his knowledge when he said that the prospects for Patton are not fantastic considering he has had surgery for patellar tendinopathy (‘jumper’s knee’), and he has had tissue from his right hamstring taken out, on top of having an ‘unhealthy’ tendon in his knee. A former number one draft pick who has signed up at GWS until 2017 in a show of faith from both sides, we are yet to see his best footy and unfortunately will not see it until 2016 at the earliest as he has undertaken a traditional knee reconstruction. I would love to see this guy and Jezza Cameron form a huge 1-2 relationship up forward. His best game for 2014 could have quite easily been the 13 disposal 3 goal game he played in round 1 against Sydney, helping the young Giants to a big upset win, or his 15 disposal 9 mark 1 goal game v Geelong for which he earned a Rising Star nomination. It remains to be seen just how Patton’s ACL issues will affect him in the long term, I’ve taken the cautious route and put him in the 30s.
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36. Sam Mayes – 39 games, 23 goals – Having already established himself as a young leader in the wake of the ‘go home 5’, signing on at Brisbane until 2016 and bringing the young Lions together, he further proved his exciting talent by backing up his solid first year with a good 2014, playing all but 1 game for the season. His best games for 2014 included a 14 disposal 4 goal game v Geelong and a 21 disposal 4 inside 50’s game v Adelaide. Mayes is a great kick, agile, and has height, meaning he can play forward and in the middle. The reason he is in the 30’s and not higher, despite his obvious talent, is that I think he is one of the less ‘necessary’ players in the Lions midfield. Not every midfielder will be a gun, and I think Rockliff, Beams, Hanley, Zorko, Aish and Redden are more likely to get the most game-time in the midfield, with Rich, Mayes, Taylor and Christensen needing to play on the flanks more, limiting their end ceilings. That’s my reasoning, having said that, Mayes will be a great player no matter which position and should end up being a 200+ game player even if he never takes on a full midfield role.
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HTPunter

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When your list is done could you do me the pleasure of mentioning where you think Brad Hill would fit on the list as he unfortunately missed out by 1 game (and what a game it was - playing his 51st in the GF). Also, liking the list so far and think Black does deserve to be there on the basis of his 2013 alone.

No problem :) Michael Walters (50 games) and Jamie Elliott (52) would have also figured highly in my rankings had they played a couple less games. I really rate Hill and think he will unquestionably be a star.
 

HTPunter

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50. Jeremy McGovern (West Coast)
49. Ben Kennedy (Collingwood)
48. Jackson Merrett (Essendon)
47. Jake Lloyd (Sydney)
46. Aaron Black (North Melbourne)
45. Dane Rampe (Sydney)
44. Taylor Duryea (Hawthorn)
43. Tom Mitchell (Sydney)
42. Jake Neade (Port Adelaide)
41. Sam Docherty (Carlton)

40. Josh Bruce (St Kilda)
39. Mark Blicavs (Geelong)
38. Christian Salem (Melbourne)
37. Jon Patton (GWS)
36. Sam Mayes (Brisbane)
35. Kade Kolodjashnij (Gold Coast)
34. Harry Cunningham (Sydney)
33. Taylor Adams (Collingwood)
32. Luke Dunstan (St Kilda)
31. Josh Kelly (GWS)

30. Elliot Yeo (West Coast)
29. Will Langford (Hawthorn)
28. Josh Jenkins (Adelaide)
27. Jack Hombsch (Port Adelaide)
26. Justin Clarke (Brisbane)
25. Troy Menzel (Carlton)
24. Will Hoskin-Elliott (GWS)
23. Jack Billings (St Kilda)
22. Nick Vlastuin (Richmond)
21. Luke McDonald (North)

20. Brodie Grundy (Collingwood)
19. Charlie Dixon (Gold Coast)
18. Zach Merrett (Essendon)
17. Jared Polec (Port Adelaide)
16. Brad Crouch (Adelaide)

Unfortunately I didn't triple check my list and missed David Astbury (18th-25th range), Tom Boyd (22nd-25th range) and Billy Longer (36th-38th range).
 
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Oct 16, 2003
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No problem :) Michael Walters (50 games) and Jamie Elliott (52) would have also figured highly in my rankings had they played a couple less games. I really rate Hill and think he will unquestionably be a star.

Thanks mate - yeah, Walters and Elliott are amongst the top 5 small forwards already - young, dynamic and guns. Also, in your above post (good work by the way) you mentioned Salem kicked the winner against Melbourne which is obviously a typo :)
 

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HTPunter

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Thanks mate - yeah, Walters and Elliott are amongst the top 5 small forwards already - young, dynamic and guns. Also, in your above post (good work by the way) you mentioned Salem kicked the winner against Melbourne which is obviously a typo :)

Cheers for that, was Essendon he kicked the winner against.
 

HTPunter

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Busy with studying, this was going to be my 'break' from study so to speak, as a way of unwinding but have just been too busy. Might just try and churn through a couple of blocks of 5 and get down into the teens.

35. Kade Kolodjashnij - 18 games, 5 goals - Kade 'Collar-Jazz-Knee', the grandson of Ukrainian migrants and brother of Geelong player Jake, made a distinct impression on the Gold Coast and the AFL in 2014. A highly rated draft pick who plays like he should be playing at Hawthorn, with a raking left boot that you can bet your hard-earned cash on will hit the mark. Running off the HBF, he looks destined to be a player with his athleticism and kicking abilities. Ranking 3rd for total kicks and for rebound 50s among Rising Stars in 2014, the young Tasmanian showed he is just what the Suns needed - a prototype modern HBF. Kade's next step would be to improve his defensive abilities, as in my opinion his best attacking football is already A-grade. Consistency will need to come to, but having seen him play every game from round 2 to round 7 and then fairly often thereafter, from a supporters perspective regular A-grade performances from Kade seem to be inevitable rather than possible.
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34. Harry Cunningham - 31 games, 19 goals - The former rookie-listed player is just the 4th player on my list so far to have played in a grand final. After managing only 1 game in 2012 and 5 games in 2013, he took his performance to an all-new height in 2014, playing all 25 games and kicking 15 goals while averaging 3 tackles a game. A developing project player, the Swans would be ecstatic with his performances so far, having come of the rookie list to play every game in a side that was the minor premiers in just 2 short years. Able to kick a goal, make a tackle and burst into the midfield with his quick speed, he made a fantastic combination with the older Ben McGlynn at times in 2014. Exciting times ahead for the Swans if he and the rest of his young midfield teammates can continue improving, with about half-a-dozen young Swans mids ready to carry the side in a few years.
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33. Taylor Adams - 43 games, 14 goals - A hard-hitting, take-no-prisoners inside midfielder, he came to the Pies in a direct swap for a fellow party-goer in Heath Shaw. Taylor, known for his ball-winning abilities (games of 30, 28 and 26 disposals in 2014, and 30, 28 and 28 in 2013), has accepted that his disposal is not up to A-grade standard. The word out of Collingwood is that while he probably still enjoying his life like a young cashed-up bloke would, he has matured since he pleaded guilty to recklessly causing injury in 2012, and as such approaches his football in a much more professional manner with the guidance of guys like Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom. He should see an opportunity in what could be a pretty barren Collingwood midfield at times in 2015, with the departure of Beams, Ball and Lumumba opening up more spots. Should make a pretty strong 1-2 combo with Levi Greenwood, and no doubt as Adams gets more gametime he will continue his improvement as a player.
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32. Luke Dunstan - 16 games, 9 goals - At one stage seen to be likely the Rising Star for 2014 before he got injured/Bontempelli and Taylor flew home, this fearless midfielder grabbed an opportunity in round 1 with the suspension of Leigh Montagna and Lenny Hayes and never looked back. With highlights of a 26 disposal 2 goals 5 tackles game in the Saints big win over Fremantle, and 21 disposals 7 marks v Melbourne, Luke was seen as a revelation for the Saints. Not surprisingly, he was rewarded with a 2 year contract extension, tying him to the Saints until at least the end of 2017. Surprisingly, he was diagnosed with a wheat intolerance, making his feats all the more remarkable considering he was still trying to perform as a player. Not surprisingly, his courage, leadership and ability made him the obvious choice to replace the retiring Lenny Hayes in the number 7 jumper, something that would be rated highly both internally and externally, as we all love Lenny.
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31. Josh Kelly - 18 games, 13 goals - Widely considered one of his draft years best midfielders, he had GWS fans extremely excited at times this year. In a midfield that will bat deep with some excellent players in it for years to come, he may be a bridesmaid player, but if you watched him play against Melbourne (27 disposals, 2 goals, 7 tackles) and in glimpses in other games you could be forgiven for thinking he might be the best of the lot. Son of dual Sandover Medallist and 39-games-off-FS rule-former North Melbourne player Phil, Josh is renowned for his endurance, enabling him to get to a lot of clearances. He is clever around goals, highlighted by his first year with 13 goals. An excellent pick at 2 for the Giants and made what seemed a loss for the Giants (Tyson going home) into a possible win-win.
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HTPunter

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30. Elliot Yeo - 40 games, 3 goals - The 2nd of the 'go-home 5' from Brisbane on this list, the rebounding defender/midfielder continued to improve his game in his first season at the Eagles. A solid start to the year was interrupted in round 13 against the Suns when he injured his hand, only returning for the final game against the Suns in round 23. His two sets of stats in those games bring his averages down, but if you eliminate the two Suns games, he averaged 16.5 disposals for the year, not bad for a guy who started the year with less than 30 games to his name. His next step in 2015 will be to play a full season or close to it (19 games in 2013 his best season so far) and also to try hit the scoreboard more often, especially if he wants a better midfield role. He adds a dynamic that the Eagles need to their midfield, with blistering pace and decent size (190cm and 87kg).
Rumours of a trade to Collingwood after Elliot had his two front teeth knocked out (incidentally, in a game against Collingwood) were unfounded...
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29. Will Langford - 20 games, 9 goals - The Clint Jones-look alike, and the 4th player on this list to have had a father play AFL, enjoyed a fantastic season, culminating in a stand-out game in the grand final. Set a role as a tagger early in the year, he had some time in the VFL during the middle of the year but once he got another opportunity, and playing a role allowing him to chase the ball, he never looked back. Only dipped below 20 disposals twice in his last 8 games, and had huge games of 29 disposals, 6 tackles and a goal in the preliminary final and 21 disposals 6 tackles 3 goals in the grand final, showing he is a big-stage player even at a young age. It should not be forgotten that he was still playing defensive roles in these 2 games - on Travis Boak in the preliminary final and Dan Hannebery for parts of the grand final. He also tagged Joel Selwood in round 22 while collecting 23 disposals and 2 goals himself. Proving many of his doubters and critics wrong, Will showed an ability to work both ways and become an effective ball-winner who hits the scoreboard. He served a long apprenticeship at Hawthorn, but the unfashionable, different and (as teammates call him) 'weird' kid who dances to his own beat has earned the respect of his extremely successful teammates and coach for all the right reasons. His story of 2014 was made all the more incredible when you realise he suffered from chronic fatigue in year 12 (2011).
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28. Josh Jenkins - 48 games, 75 goals - A vastly underrated forward, he had a breakout year in 2014 with 40 goals for the season. After getting his chance at Essendon, somewhat due to the professionalism and life-experience he showed (raised in a foster family, mostly by the 70+ year old woman he affectionately calls grandma), he was cut, but was given a 2nd chance by the Adelaide Crows. He took his opportunity when Taylor Walker missed the first 7 rounds of the season, kicking 13.9 and averaging over 14 disposals for a 5 game period. His big individual highlight for the year came when he kicked 5 goals against the eventual premiers Hawthorn, truly showing his talents. At 198cm and 105kg, the big man off the rookie list has shown he will be a player. He kicked the most goals out of anyone on this list for 2014, but was held back by the fact he will turn 26 in 2014, as opposed to the raft of 20 year olds ahead of him.
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27. Jack Hombsch - 39 games, 0 goals - The second highest rated key-defender on this list, he fulfilled his role with distinction at times in 2014 when Carlile and Trengrove were injured. One of the original GWS 17 year olds, he plays his role with little fanfare or flashiness, but is a very effective defender who can take the third tall or fill in if needed on the bigger guys, with an aim of putting on muscle over last and this pre-season. Taught a lesson by Nick Riewoldt at one stage this year, he came back harder and was an impressive defender. While probably not likely to be a star full-back in his career, he could very easily end up being a crucial part of a premiership backline, in less time than you'd think.
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26. Justin Clarke - 36 games, 1 goal - The highest rated key-defender on this list, Justin is a backman in the mould of your Tom Lonergan and Darren Glass types, rather than the Harry Taylor or Cale Hooker types, but he is an excellent backman nonetheless. Lead well by Matt Maguire, Joel Patfull and Jed Adcock down back in 2014, the departure of Patfull means he will take on more responsibility in 2015. Amid reports he has bulked up over the pre-season, standing at 195cm he looks to become an imposing figure who will be ready to take on the big guys next year and beyond. Didn't always beat his man in 2014, but watching his games, I think a lot of that came down to lack of size and experience, and not smarts or skill. Still very raw, one of his best on-field attributes is his speed for a man of his size, running 20 meters in 2.97 seconds at the State Draft Combine in 2011. An extremely intelligent man who holds his pilots licence and considered studying aerospace engineering and physics had his football career not taken off, Brisbane fans can sleep easy knowing that Booleroo, from which Justin hails from, does not have an AFL team...He will be one to watch for the next 10 years.
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HTPunter said:
26. Justin Clarke - 36 games, 1 goal - The highest rated key-defender on this list, Justin is a backman in the mould of your Tom Lonergan and Darren Glass types, rather than the Harry Taylor or Cale Hooker types, but he is an excellent backman nonetheless. Lead well by Matt Maguire, Joel Patfull and Jed Adcock down back in 2014, the departure of Patfull means he will take on more responsibility in 2015. Amid reports he has bulked up over the pre-season, standing at 195cm he looks to become an imposing figure who will be ready to take on the big guys next year and beyond. Didn't always beat his man in 2014, but watching his games, I think a lot of that came down to lack of size and experience, and not smarts or skill. Still very raw, one of his best on-field attributes is his speed for a man of his size, running 20 meters in 2.97 seconds at the State Draft Combine in 2011. An extremely intelligent man who holds his pilots licence and considered studying aerospace engineering and physics had his football career not taken off, Brisbane fans can sleep easy knowing that Booleroo, from which Justin hails from, does not have an AFL team...He will be one to watch for the next 10 years.
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So now we know Astbury and Grimes didn't make the cut, where would you have ranked them? I thought Astbury would've been a lock once I saw Salem's name on the list.
 
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Nallad

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So now we know Astbury and Grimes didn't make the cut, where would you have ranked them? I thought Astbury would've been a lock once I saw Salem's name on the list.
I wonder if Vlastuin or Miles will get a gig. Probably not...
 

HTPunter

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Miles would have to. If Vlastuin hasn't been on yet I'm guessing he missed out too.

Without giving too much away, both have made it.

So now we know Astbury and Grimes didn't make the cut, where would you have ranked them? I thought Astbury would've been a lock once I saw Salem's name on the list.

Damn, knew I would miss someone (Astbury). I'm too far in to the list to sneak him in, but in my opinion he'd be around the 15-25 mark.

Grimes was about the 6th key back I had listed (7th if you include Astbury - Astbury, Clarke, Hombsch, Bruce, Rowe ahead of him, Jack Frost near). Grimes is a soft-tissue injury prone 2nd or 3rd tall, and from what I can see is the 4th best key backman in his team. So he didn't make the cut.

If I were sneaky enough to do so, I would have taken Vlastuin out and slotted Astbury in, but feel as though Vlastuin will easily be Richmonds 3rd or 4th best mid in the coming years (Cotchin 1, Martin 2, Vlastuin or Ellis). So he deserves a spot.

Very interesting so far. Where would Giles fit in with 51? And Baguley with 50?

Considering I've missed Astbury, I would find it hard to slot Giles in into the top 45 at least. I guess Jeremy McGovern at 50 is a choice based on potential, rather than performances (expect that to change in 2015 and 2016). Giles is 27 in 2 months time, and coming off a season where he played a lot of NEAFL. No shame in losing your spot to Shane Mumford, but I think there are reasons Giles is a journeyman. Think he will be good for Essendon, and am happy to be told different considering that GWS are not my most watched team, but don't see him ever taking his game to another level, and he is currently at solid.

Not sure about Baguley. A very good small defender but is there much room for improvement? I think the top 25 coming up, and probably even the top 35 all easily have higher levels to reach than Baguley by the time they hit their peak. Having said that, the level Baguley is at right now is pretty damn good, and so I'd put him in above the Neade/Docherty/Duryea/Rampe company. Maybe he would be 38 behind Patton at 37.
 

HTPunter

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25. Troy Menzel - 26 games, 34 goals - Very difficult to separate this guy from number 24 and number 23, Troy is a classy forward who can fulfil a role as a small forward but is very able overhead. Standing at around 187cm, his contested marking makes him play taller. Was an unknown prospect before he was drafted, with the good (15 goals in 2 games playing for South Australia and playing SANFL seniors at 17) and the bad (two ACL injuries and 1 LARS surgery). However, his talent proved too hard to ignore, eventually being picked up at number 11 by Carlton. Has fortunately avoided any long-term injuries in the AFL during his short career, he managed to kick multiple goals 10 times in 2014, and 14/26 in his career so far.
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24. Will Hoskin-Elliott - 39 games, 38 goals - The high-jumping forward, who can also play midfield, finally had his breakout year in 2014 in his 3rd season. After some were doubting his pick 4 status at the end of 2013, with just 19 games, 12 goals and an average of 11 disposals to his name, he managed to kick 26 goals and average 13 disposals in 2014. Still developing, and still a slight player, he is another who is doing his apprenticeship on the flanks, although he may be set for a career up forward depending on the line-up of the GWS midfield. He has speed, endurance and the ability to jump high, he wowed the crowd when he kicked a bag of 5 in the last round of 2014 against the Dogs. Long rumoured to have wanted to go back to Victoria, he showed faith in GWS by signing up until the end of 2015. Coming out of contact, GWS will surely want to give this guy what he deserves as the excitement machine starts to hit top form.
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23. Jack Billings - 16 games, 14 goals - The strong midfielder/forward enjoyed a solid first year, averaging just under 15 disposals and under a goal a game. As with many first years, his stats do not tell the whole story. He performed to an extremely high level in a few games, none more so than his 25 disposal 3 goal game v West Coast, while getting a total of 40 disposals and 2 goals in the Saints wins over Essendon and Fremantle. The number 3 draft pick who was always going to serve his apprenticeship on the forward flanks with stints in the middle, but in due time he should become a bonafide star midfielder.
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22. Nick Vlastuin - 38 games, 13 goals - Flies under the radar does Vlastuin, but that will be for a limited time only I think. While he does need to improve his goalkicking, which he could learn from the likes of Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio and Dustin Martin, there is a lot to like about his game. Able to win the ball inside and out, he has the 1 quality that separates the best from the rest - uncompromising. A tidy kick and quick handballer, some of his best work comes when in the clinches - tackling, contested possessions, attack on the ball and man. Signed up to the end of 2016, he will be a huge factor in delivering to Tigerland what the army has dreamed of since 1981.
*Forgot Miles in my above post re: Vlastuin.
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21. Luke McDonald - 23 games, 0 goals - The highly rated father-son pick, thought to be a possible future captain, showed he is a player of the future in 2014 by performing admirably down back and showing an ability to play in the midfield. Finishing 3rd in the Rising Star, a decision not thought shocking by many good judges, he had time on Dayne Zorko, Steve Motlop, Rory Sloane and Dale Thomas to name a few and took the chocolates in each battle. Failing to kick a goal in his first season, he showed he can find the ball averaging 17 disposals in spite his defensive roles. Took a while for his season to get going, after a quiet start in round 1 where he was shown for the debutant he was, he made good impressions in the 2nd half of the year and was justly rewarded with his 3rd spot. He also beat Ryan O'Keefe in round 4, collecting 20 disposals while O'Keefe got 11, in what proved to be O'Keefes final game.
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HTPunter

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20. Brodie Grundy - 22 games, 4 goals - Big men take time, and Brodie will be a perfect example of that. Holding down his teams ruck spot along with Witts, he is a physical presence out on the field who competes well at ground level. Has a couple of features of his game that need to be improved, specifically his goalkicking, his discipline and to decrease the number of free kicks given away, and his coordination with his midfielders. However, there is a lot to like about him regardless, and if he can temper his aggression, he will be a fantastic ruckman who will make teams fear the Pies midfield. Unfortunately, as I was looking through my list to see where I'd placed Billy Longer (my 2nd best ruckman under 50 games), I've left him out, so add him to the list with David Astbury and Tom Boyd...'spose I'm still doing better than Mike Sheahan...
Anyway, Grundy has a case of the campaigner persona about him, seems like the type of bloke that would carry arrogance on and off the field, which is the perfect attitude for a physical, strong ruckman to have.
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19. Charlie Dixon - 49 games, 53 goals - The one thing holding this guy back is his injuries. A highly rated monster of a key forward who can more than pinch-hit in the ruck, he made a formidable trio with Tom Lynch and Sam Day at times in 2014. Yet to play more than 14 games in 1 season, he is ready to take the competition by the scruff of the neck, if only he can play 18+ games. His stats should improve as the Suns are in more winnable positions in more games as well. Kicked 21 goals in a 8 game streak in the middle of the year, and showed how imposing he can be with some fantastic aggressive marking at times, but the most exciting thing about his play is his manic pressure and attack at ground level. Stands at 200cm and tops the scales at 105kg, but causes havoc in the forward line for opposition defences. As I said earlier, the only thing holding him back in my opinion is his continuity, but if he can get on the field, Day-Dixon-Lynch-Bennell-Matera will be one of the best forward lines in the comp.

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18. Zach Merrett - 20 games, 11 goals - Some might say this kid is too high, but I couldn't rate the brother of Jackson (number 48 on this list) highly enough. Still barely out of primary school, this young bloke has already shown he is clever around goal, able to play midfield and is smart at defending. Started his debut season as little more than a role player, but ended up showing his true ability with a big 3 weeks when the Bombers beat Port, the Pies and the Dogs. A booming left-foot kick, as with Dixon I've probably reached here, but I am banking on his improvement coming rapidly and a permanent midfield role very soon. Will be an excellent addition into a midfield that will have inside midfielders (Watson, Heppell), a tagger (Hocking) and attacking mids (Goddard, Zaharakis).
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17. Jared Polec - 40 games, 26 goals - Makes the list at number 17, the 3rd and the highest of the 'go-home 5'. For whatever reasons, he never performed as well as hoped at Brisbane, and I think the Lions (who received draft picks that landed Darcy Gardiner and Nick Robertson), Giants and Port were relatively happy at the conclusion of this trade. By the end of 2014, Port would have been ecstatic with the output from Polec. Showed why he was selected at number 5 in the draft, with some big performances in 2014 including a 30 disposal 3 goal game v GWS, and 26 disposals 1 goal v Hawthorn. He also played well in the final series, by no means dominating but formed a good second tier midfield with Hartlett behind Boak, Gray and Ebert. The U18 All-Australian, who returned to South Australia at the end of 2013, is still building up his endurance and strength, but looks to have the goods in terms of football play, and is very clever in getting into space and receiving the ball on the wings and flanks.
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16. Brad Crouch - 25 games, 9 goals - The runner-up in the 2013 Rising Star from just 14 games, his 2014 season was interrupted by a broken leg in round 2. The dynamic midfielder, capable of dominating the inside of the contests, returned for the 2nd Showdown of the year and was huge in the win. Despite his lack of match fitness, he racked up 28 disposals and kicked an important goal late, stamping his influence on the biggest win for the Crows of the year. Able to win the ball inside and out, with a solid set of decision-making and kicking skills to go with his footy smarts, Crouch is the rising star in the Adelaide midfield who has the potential to be one of the best midfielders in the comp. The improvement in his game will come from continuing to develop his body, which he has an advantage with as he was on Adelaide's list as a 17 year old, putting together a full season and working his way deep defensively and deep into the forward line.
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