News 2015 Hawthorn Fixture (released 30 October 2014)

[Rioli magic]

What these analyses don't take into account, is where and who each team played the previous week. Check out how cushy the Swans draw is where they get easy games mostly at home before their clashes with top 6 teams, whereas, we are scheduled to play most of our games against strong opposition on the road the week before playing a top 6 team.

And the AFL don't think we'll notice pffffttttt

Hawthorn vs top 6

Rd 1 - Geelong
No previous week
Rd 4 - Port Adelaide
Previous - Western Bulldogs (AU) 6 day break
Rd 5 - North Melbourne
Previous Port Adelaide (AO) 7 day break
Rd 8 - Sydney
Previous Melbourne (MCG) 7 day break
Rd 15 Fremantle
Previous Collingwood (MCG) 9 day break
Rd 16 Sydney
Previous Fremantle (AU) 6 day break
Rd 20 Geelong
Previous West Coast (PS) 7 day break
Rd 21 Port Adelaide
Previous Geelong (MCG) 6 day break

Breaks: 1x9 day, 3x7 day, 3x6 day
Preceding venue: 3 in VIC , 2 in TAS, 2 interstate
Preceding opposition: 3 vs top 6, 2 vs middle 6, 2 vs bottom 6

Sydney vs top 6

Rd 2 Port Adelaide
Previous Essendon (ANZ) 7 day break
Rd 4 Fremantle
Previous GWS (SCG) 7 day break
Rd 7 Geelong
Previous Melbourne (MCG) 7 day break
Rd 8 Hawthorn
Previous Geelong (ANZ) 7 day break
Rd 11 North Melbourne
Previous GC (MET) 7 day break
Rd 14 Port Adelaide
Previous Richmond (SCG) 6 day break
Rd 16 Hawthorn
Previous Brisbane (GAB) 6 day break
Rd 19 Geelong
Previous Adelaide (SCG) 7 day break

Breaks: 6x7 day, 2x6 day
Preceding venue: 5 in NSW, 3 interstate
Preceding opposition: 1 vs top 6, 4 vs middle 6, 3 vs bottom 6

 

[Doss]

We'll have to find some way to make up the 8 goals Buddy used to kick against yous every time.

Heh. Yes.

He only kicked five when we played Sydney for the first time this year. I felt like I was in heaven. Only five.

 

[filly]

The AFL helping Grand Finalists (outside of Hawthorn) Never...especially COLA...

 

[King Cold]

What's the deal with Brisbane vs Hawthorn?

This will now be 7 years in a row where Brisbane have travelled to play Hawthorn in Melbourne/Launceston, and Brisbane haven't played Hawthorn in Brisbane since 2008.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

What's the deal with Brisbane vs Hawthorn?

This will now be 7 years in a row where Brisbane have travelled to play Hawthorn in Melbourne/Launceston, and Brisbane haven't played Hawthorn in Brisbane since 2008.

Gee I don't know. Maybe it has something to do with the fact we played Brisbane Bears/Lions in Carrara or the Gabba every season from 1992 to 2008, including the Lions' "reign of terror" 2001-2004. In 2006, we played them twice, once at Carrara and once at the Gabba.

 

[spudmaster]

Hawthorn vs top 6

Rd 1 - Geelong
No previous week
Rd 4 - Port Adelaide
Previous - Western Bulldogs (AU) 6 day break Port have 7 day break coming back from ES vs North
*Also we play at 1:10 on Sunday vs Doggies to 7:10pm Saturday vs Port so between 6 and 7 days in reality
Rd 5 - North Melbourne
Previous Port Adelaide (AO) 7 day break North have 6-6.5day break coming off playing the Cats
Rd 8 - Sydney
Previous Melbourne (MCG) 7 day break Swans have 7 day break also - previous match Cats at ANZ
Rd 15 Fremantle
Previous Collingwood (MCG) 9 day break Freo have 7 day break, previous match Lions at PS
Rd 16 Sydney
Previous Fremantle (AU) 6 day break Swans have 6 day break also, previous match vs Brisbane at Gabba
Rd 20 Geelong
Previous West Coast (PS) 7 day break Cats have 7 day break also, previous match vs Swans at SS
Rd 21 Port Adelaide
Previous Geelong (MCG) 6 day break Port have 6* day break also, previous match vs Giants at AO
*4:35pm start Vic time, closer to 6 days than 7

Taking things one step further and comparing our break leading into that match vs our opponents break heading into the same match as that's what really matters. A six day break on the surface sounds detrimental, but when our opponent is facing the same preparation/recovery time then it's not so bad.

Red = shorter break for us comparatively
Green = longer break for us comparatively
Black = same break

Edit: I quoted your post and simply added the text in red to it originally, Rioli magic , but it then only showed a snippet of it so I've had to re-post it in my own post. Apologies mate.

 

[WWSD]

What's the deal with Brisbane vs Hawthorn?

This will now be 7 years in a row where Brisbane have travelled to play Hawthorn in Melbourne/Launceston, and Brisbane haven't played Hawthorn in Brisbane since 2008.

We will have to play Brisbane at the Gabba eventually. Hopefully 2016 is the year we play them there.

 

[Hawkk]

Another way of looking at our draw from a football / commercial perspective is to rank the opponents / games by the last 3 times we played them, at the venue we are taking them on home / away...

For example in 2015...

MCG HOME
Easter Monday - Geelong (17/5, 18/4, 15/7) 76,300 (2013 - L), 78,579 (2011 - L), 68,628 (2010 - L) (3 games, 3 losses - 74,502 average)
Essendon (12/1/9, 14/8, 11/11) 64,537 (2011 - W), 54,138 (2010 - W), 77,278 (2009 - L) (3 games, 2 wins 1 loss - 65,317 average)
Sydney (17/5, 15/7, 16/6) 72,728 (2014 - W), 54,985 (2013 - W), 36,007 (2010 - W) (3 games, 3 wins - 54,576 average)
Richmond (12/10, 15/7, 10/1/11) 64,324 (2013 - L), 46,004 (2008 - W), 41,700 (2007 - W) (3 games, 2 wins 1 loss - 50,719 average)
Carlton (7/1/14, 11/11, 11/11) 69,814 (2009 - W), 36,817 (2006 - W), 31,459 (2005 - W) (3 games, 3 wins - 46,030 average)
Melbourne (4/18, 2/20, 4/18) 37,088 (2014 - W), 49,905 (2011 - W), 48,311 (2010 - W) (3 games, 3 wins - 45,101 average)

ETHIAD HOME (MCG attendances ONLY)
Port Adelaide (14/8, 12/10, 5/1/16) 27,532 (2011 - W), 21,287 (2010 - W), 33,527 (2009 - L) (3 games, 2 wins 1 loss - 27,448 average)

AURORA
Western Bulldogs (7/15, 8/14, 5/17) 14,187 (2014 - W), 14,022 (2013 - W), 19,378 (2008 - L) (3 games, 2 wins 1 loss - 15,862 average)
Gold Coast (10/12, 8/14, 3/19) 13,178 (2014 - W), 16,377 (2011 - W) (2 games, 2 wins - 14,777 average)
Brisbane Lions (7/15, 10/12, 10/12) 12,430 (2014 - W), 15,796 (2013 - W), 14,604 (2011 - W) (3 games, 3 wins - 14,176 average)
Fremantle (16/6, 16/1/5, 14/8) 12,619 (2013 - W), 12,959 (2012 - W), 15,532 (2010 - W) (3 games, 3 wins - 13,703 average)

HOME GAMES TOTAL 408,920 (37,174 average), 26 wins, 7 losses (9 wins)

MCG AWAY
Collingwood (11/11, 14/8, 16/6) 48,980 (2014 - W), 72,254 (2013 - W), 83,719 (2012 - W) (3 games, 3 wins - 72,624 average)
Non Easter Monday Geelong (17/5, 18/4, 15/7) 85,197, 63,476, 69,220 (3 games, 3 losses - 68,317 average)
Essendon (12/1/9, 14/8, 11/11) 61,006 (2010 - W), 52,047 (2008 - W), 44,971 (2005 - L) (3 games, 2 wins 1 loss - 52,674 average)

ETHIAD AWAY
Carlton (7/1/14, 11/11, 11/11) 45,670 (2013 - W), 52,052 (2012 - W), 47,822 (2011 - W) (3 games, 3 wins - 48,522 average)
St Kilda (4/18, 5/17, 12/10) 24,765 (2013 - W), 49,373 (2010 - D), 41,886 (2008 - L) (3 games, 1 win each + 1 draw - 38,674 average)
North Melbourne (14/8, 10/12, 14/8) 35,202 (2014 - L), 33,039 (2013 - W), 39,816 (2008 - W) (3 games, 2 wins, 1 loss - 36,019 average)

INTERSTATE
Port Adelaide (14/8, 12/10, 5/1/16) - 52,233 (2014 - L) (1 game, 1 loss - 52,233 average)
Adelaide (11/11, 10/12, 17/5) - 50,321 (2014 - W) (1 game, 1 win - 50,321 average)
West Coast (11/11, 9/13, 15/7) 38,389 (2013 - W), 40,080 (2012 - L), 35,864 (2010 - L) (3 games, 1 win, 2 losses - 38,114 average)
Sydney (17/5, 15/7, 16/6) 34,506 (2014 - L), 37,980 (2013 - W), 33,116 (2009 - L) (3 games, 1 win, 2 losses - 35,200 average)

NO GAMES YET PLAYED INTERSTATE...
GWS (6/16, 1/21, 2/20) 26,518 (2012 - W), 10,513 (2013 - W), 17,906 (2014 - W) (3 games, 3 wins - 18,312 average)

AWAY GAMES TOTAL 511,008 (46,455 average), 18 wins, 1 draw, 14 losses (6 wins)

PROJECTED 2015 TOTAL HOME AND AWAY - 919,928 (41,815), 15 wins, 7 losses

How does this compare to previous years?

2014 - Projected: H 429767 (39069) 9 from 11 games. A 486918 (44265) 8 from 11 games. Overall 916685 (41667) 17/5
2014 - Actual: H 402300 (36572) 11 from 11 games. A 504299 (45845) 6 from 11 games. Overall 906599 (41209) 17/5

2013 - Projected: H 407151 (37013) 8 from 11 games. A 515932 (46902) 6 from 11 games. Overall 913083 (41503) 14/8
2014 - Actual: H 422610 (38572) 9 from 11 games. A 476417 (43311) 10 from 11 games. Overall 899012 (40865) 19/3

According to this assessment, our best draw when you look at expected wins / losses (given the last 3 home / away games at the venues where the games were scheduled) was 2014 followed by 2015 and 2013

Interesting that our actual crowds in recent seasons haven't met projected crowds which is solely explained by our Tassie crowds...

2013 was exceptional given the difficulty of our draw to win 19 of 22 games and salute (after making the GF in the preceding season surely ranks as one of the great seasons). According to my assessment we were +5 for the season (and only par for 2014). If we can secure 15 wins and qualify for the top 4 we are as good a chance at the three peat as any other

 

[Dewnior]

Hawthorn vs top 6

Rd 1 - Geelong
No previous week
Rd 4 - Port Adelaide
Previous - Western Bulldogs (AU) 6 day break Port have 7 day break coming back from ES vs North
*Also we play at 1:10 on Sunday vs Doggies to 7:10pm Saturday vs Port so between 6 and 7 days in reality
Rd 5 - North Melbourne
Previous Port Adelaide (AO) 7 day break North have 6-6.5day break coming off playing the Cats
Rd 8 - Sydney
Previous Melbourne (MCG) 7 day break Swans have 7 day break also - previous match Cats at ANZ
Rd 15 Fremantle
Previous Collingwood (MCG) 9 day break Freo have 7 day break, previous match Lions at PS
Rd 16 Sydney
Previous Fremantle (AU) 6 day break Swans have 6 day break also, previous match vs Brisbane at Gabba
Rd 20 Geelong
Previous West Coast (PS) 7 day break Cats have 7 day break also, previous match vs Swans at SS
Rd 21 Port Adelaide
Previous Geelong (MCG) 6 day break Port have 6* day break also, previous match vs Giants at AO
*4:35pm start Vic time, closer to 6 days than 7

Taking things one step further and comparing our break leading into that match vs our opponents break heading into the same match as that's what really matters. A six day break on the surface sounds detrimental, but when our opponent is facing the same preparation/recovery time then it's not so bad.

Red = shorter break for us comparatively
Green = longer break for us comparatively
Black = same break

Edit: I quoted your post and simply added the text in red to it originally, Rioli magic , but it then only showed a snippet of it so I've had to re-post it in my own post. Apologies mate.

How does this comparison look for the $wine$ v Top 6? Let me guess, lots of green.

 

[tige19]

Our overall attendance would be the best in the league if we didn't have tassie

 

[Procrastinator35]

This is the easiest draw we've been handed since 2010....No coincidence that its post the Fat Controllers reign of terror upon all things Brown & Gold!

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Just on attendances, a Power fan was whining to me about the tough draw they have for 2015. I had to explain to him that Port were now a top 4 side and have to expect this. He couldn't see why the Crows had an easier draw. Once again I tried to explain that based on 2014, Adelaide were lower placed team. Power supporters .. they just don't get it

 

[MistyAvalon]

Gee I don't know. Maybe it has something to do with the fact we played Brisbane Bears/Lions in Carrara or the Gabba every season from 1992 to 2008, including the Lions' "reign of terror" 2001-2004. In 2006, we played them twice, once at Carrara and once at the Gabba.

but for Hawk fans in Brisbane it must be tough

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

but for Hawk fans in Brisbane it must be tough

Yeah, but I'm a Hawks fan in Adelaide. You just accept you don't see a lot of your team unless it's on TV. If you really want to see the Hawks live, just hop on a plane and have a weekend in Melbourne. I do every now and then.

 

[deanc]

Our overall attendance would be the best in the league if we didn't have tassie

Perhaps but the cost would be losing 3 million/year sponsorship and 9000 members...

 

[Off The Couch]

Yeah, but I'm a Hawks fan in Adelaide. You just accept you don't see a lot of your team unless it's on TV. If you really want to see the Hawks live, just hop on a plane and have a weekend in Melbourne. I do every now and then.

Are you also a member
There does I think arrive a time when you have to question whether it's worthwhile continuing with your membership - I always look at it as a donation but this year have decided to renew mine but not my nephews - just can't justify it. Got a better chance of just buying a ticket to the game rather than trying to get them through the ballot.

Coming across for round 1 and hopefully another later in the year

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Are you also a member
There does I think arrive a time when you have to question whether it's worthwhile continuing with your membership - I always look at it as a donation but this year have decided to renew mine but not my nephews - just can't justify it. Got a better chance of just buying a ticket to the game rather than trying to get them through the ballot.

Coming across for round 1 and hopefully another later in the year

I guess it's up to the individual. Hawthorn were a huge part of my life in the 1980s, I spent a lot of time in Melbourne, spent a lot of time at Glenferrie. I can't imagine myself not being some part of what's going on.

I don't think I could possibly re-pay what the Hawks have given me over the years.

 

[walhawk]

Perhaps but the cost would be losing 3 million/year sponsorship and 9000 members...

And the opportunity would be games in better timeslots (increasing value to sponsors), more crowds/members/reserved seat revenue in Melbourne, and probably a better draw if our crowd numbers hold.

 

[MightyHawks]

Just on attendances, a Power fan was whining to me about the tough draw they have for 2015. I had to explain to him that Port were now a top 4 side and have to expect this. He couldn't see why the Crows had an easier draw. Once again I tried to explain that based on 2014, Adelaide were lower placed team. Power supporters .. they just don't get it

Maybe your Port fan is just stupid

Not all Port fans are stupid

But the ones who don't get that they should expect a tougher fixture as they finished top 4 are stupid

 

[Procrastinator35]

Maybe your Port fan is just stupid

Not all Port fans are stupid

But the ones who don't get that they should expect a tougher fixture as they finished top 4 are stupid

Logic 101....First Class lesson: Syllogisms!

 

[MatteeG]

Gee I don't know. Maybe it has something to do with the fact we played Brisbane Bears/Lions in Carrara or the Gabba every season from 1992 to 2008, including the Lions' "reign of terror" 2001-2004. In 2006, we played them twice, once at Carrara and once at the Gabba.

Amen. Sat through the flogging in 2001. At least they had beers in plastic stubbies.

 

[deanc]

And the opportunity would be games in better timeslots (increasing value to sponsors), more crowds/members/reserved seat revenue in Melbourne, and probably a better draw if our crowd numbers hold.

Perhaps, but I think you'll find most will go with the benefits we have now vs perceived 'opportunity'. For mine the deal we have in place with Tassie is mutually beneficial on and off the field. From a purely football perspective we have won 11 of our past 12 games in Tassie (admittedly vs very few of the top teams) so it's hard to argue against that record. Hypothetical - if we didn't have the deal in Tassie would the AFL schedule these 4 matches at better time slots and/or all at the MCG? I have my doubts and further suggest 2 of these matches would be at Etihad on Sunday afternoons, which is not my idea of a better draw.

 

[walhawk]

Perhaps, but I think you'll find most will go with the benefits we have now vs perceived 'opportunity'. For mine the deal we have in place with Tassie is mutually beneficial on and off the field. From a purely football perspective we have won 11 of our past 12 games in Tassie (admittedly vs very few of the top teams) so it's hard to argue against that record. Hypothetical - if we didn't have the deal in Tassie would the AFL schedule these 4 matches at better time slots and/or all at the MCG? I have my doubts and further suggest 2 of these matches would be at Etihad on Sunday afternoons, which is not my idea of a better draw.

Sunday afternoons @ Etihad is better for most than watching the same time on Foxtel.
And if you take out Geelong, our record @ MCG and Etihad is just as good as Tassie.
Yes, two games might be @ Etihad, and two @ MCG, which would give us eight @ MCG - a 33% increase on 2015.
And for most 85% of our members, Etihad is closer than Tasmania.
The point is that we will probably be pushed out eventually so we should do a 'deal' to exit gracefully on the best terms possible.
I would take a guarantee of eight MCG home games.
We need to embrace Etihad because there will be more games there once the AFL owns it.

 

[cryptor]

Sunday afternoons @ Etihad is better for most than watching the same time on Foxtel.
And if you take out Geelong, our record @ MCG and Etihad is just as good as Tassie.
Yes, two games might be @ Etihad, and two @ MCG, which would give us eight @ MCG - a 33% increase on 2015.
And for most 85% of our members, Etihad is closer than Tasmania.
The point is that we will probably be pushed out eventually so we should do a 'deal' to exit gracefully on the best terms possible.
I would take a guarantee of eight MCG home games.
We need to embrace Etihad because there will be more games there once the AFL owns it.

Would be good if we could secure ourselves our own version of Simmonds Stadium in the eastern region. A 30k capacity speciality stadium. We could be based there, train there and play any home games that aren't expected to draw a large crowd there. Easier said than done of course.

 

[Hawkk]

Would be good if we could secure ourselves our own version of Simmonds Stadium in the eastern region. A 30k capacity speciality stadium. We could be based there, train there and play any home games that aren't expected to draw a large crowd there. Easier said than done of course.

Love the idea but developing a ground out of the ground for 3-4 games a year isn't sustainable.

Since 2007 the club has played 10 home games against the 'small 4' non Victorian clubs in Melbourne (Port Adelaide, Fremantle, GWS and Gold Coast)

Fremantle - 43,583 (2014)
Port Adelaide - 33,274 (2009)
Fremantle - 31,925 (2011)
Gold Coast - 28,112 (2013)
Port Adelaide - 27,532 (2011)
GWS GIANTS - 26,518 (2012)
Gold Coast - 23,098 (2012)
GWS GIANTS - 17,906 (2014)

Average: 28,993

In that time our attendances against the remaining non Victorian clubs...

Sydney - 72,768 (2014)
Sydney - 54,725 (2013)
West Coast - 50,023 (2012)
Sydney - 49,527 (2008)
Sydney - 48,394 (2007)
Sydney - 44,494 (2009)
Brisbane Lions - 39,007 (2007)
Brisbane Lions - 35,492 (2012)
Adelaide - 33,524 (2012)
Adelaide - 32,583 (2009)
West Coast - 32,567 (2013)
West Coast - 29,138 (2008)

Average: 43,520 (obviously inflated by the Buddy return game, without the 2014 Swans attendance the average is 40,861 across 11 games)

If / when we get turfed out of Tasmania, the club would be better served looking at strategies to maximise attendances at matches against Port, Fremantle, GWS and the Gold Coast. If the club can boost average attendance at these fixtures from 30,000 to 35,000 (as Collingwood / Essendon have successfully achieved) a boutique stadium will serve no purpose.

Either way playing games in the city centre is far easier to sell to corporates anyway