We get it. You've given yourself a ZJ for the past 21 months over the possibility of infractions/suspensions/EFC failing.Only 46% think Essendon will go backwards. Absolutely mind blowing.
Which teams will go backwards in 2015?
- Thread starter hazard
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Aug 17, 2012
- 13,591
- 20,072
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Collingwood in front at this stage. Can't see where their improvement is going to come from.
- Jul 7, 2014
- 2,835
- 3,870
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
I'd wager that actually being able to get our strongest lineup out on the field together at least once would be a huge improvement.
I don't want to hide behind the injury excuse but we can expect/hope to see a few big changes to the team if two of our best players in Reid and Swan can get their bodies right. Reid completely changes the team as a key presence in the back line or a relief for Cloke upfront; he was a huge loss last season. As for Swan, it's pretty clear that he struggled big time with a series of niggling injuries last season that severely impacted both the quality of his performance and the time he was able to spend in midfield, I believe he is still capable of getting back near his best if his body is fine.
Also the flip side of this injury crisis allowed us to get a lot of quality experience into our younger players, granted many of them were burned out by the end of the season as a result of this, but they showed what they were capable of during the first half of the season and will benefit from this experience in the long run.
North for sure. Would need to make at least another prelim to not go backwards, can't see that happening.
Dredd
Cancelled
- Oct 8, 2014
- 539
- 334
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Tottenham
- Sep 8, 2014
- 17,010
- 23,366
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- There are no other teams
Geelong will struggle to finish in top 6 and if Hawkins or Selwood go down then they will struggle to make top 12
- Banned
- #32
If we didn't lose pace in Varcoe and Bundy I wouldnt have voted for my own team. Varcoe may have been useless in 13/14 but he always had speed. Considering we lost our 3rd most important playing in Bundy and our other guys getting older.... And we have 24 people over 189cm God damn it.
In all the years of people saying Geelong are "old and gawn" I've not once bought into it and have always said that they won't fall off the pace. However I think this season will be the one where they will start to slide a little. They've had an amazing run and there's nothing wrong with a bit of a slump after so long at the top. Will likely finish 6th or 7th.
Freo to finish 5th and North to finish 8th. Dons to slide big time for obvious reasons.
Top 4: Port/Hawks/Swans/TIGERS!
Freo to finish 5th and North to finish 8th. Dons to slide big time for obvious reasons.
Top 4: Port/Hawks/Swans/TIGERS!
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #34
OK so the average amount of votes for a team going backwards is approximately 29. 29 minus the amount of votes a team receives, divided by two gives you the change in their percentage for 2015. For example, Geelong received 81 votes, which gives an adjusted score of -52, divide by two gives 26. Their percentage of 113.8 minus 26 gives us their 2015 percentage: 87.8. The change in teams' fortunes are shown in the below chart.
This gives us an expected 2015 ladder, sorted by percentage:
1. Sydney Swans 148.0
2. Hawthorn Hawks 145.4
3. Port Adelaide Power 137.0
4. Fremantle Dockers 123.5
5. Adelaide Crows 122.7
6. West Coast Eagles 122.5
7. North Melbourne Kangaroos 113.6
8. Richmond Tigers 107.4
9. Gold Coast Suns 107.3
10. Essendon Bombers 90.4
11. GWS Giants 89.3
12. Geelong Cats 87.9
13. Brisbane Lions 81.9
14. Carlton Blues 79.9
15. Western Bulldogs 77.1
16. Melbourne Demons 76.5
17. St Kilda Saints 71.4
18. Collingwood Magpies 70.2
Not a bad effort I'd say. It put Richmond 8th instead of 9th so it still needs some tweaking obviously.
This gives us an expected 2015 ladder, sorted by percentage:
1. Sydney Swans 148.0
2. Hawthorn Hawks 145.4
3. Port Adelaide Power 137.0
4. Fremantle Dockers 123.5
5. Adelaide Crows 122.7
6. West Coast Eagles 122.5
7. North Melbourne Kangaroos 113.6
8. Richmond Tigers 107.4
9. Gold Coast Suns 107.3
10. Essendon Bombers 90.4
11. GWS Giants 89.3
12. Geelong Cats 87.9
13. Brisbane Lions 81.9
14. Carlton Blues 79.9
15. Western Bulldogs 77.1
16. Melbourne Demons 76.5
17. St Kilda Saints 71.4
18. Collingwood Magpies 70.2
Not a bad effort I'd say. It put Richmond 8th instead of 9th so it still needs some tweaking obviously.
Donkey Chop
Cancelled
- Jun 27, 2013
- 8,418
- 13,564
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
I can see Port dropping away if they get some injuries. They had a good run with injuries this year. When they had a couple of players out they really showed a lack of depth and had that real poor patch.
scaryness
Premium Platinum
- Oct 19, 2008
- 14,849
- 23,291
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Trail Blazers / Cowboys
Fremantle
Geelong
Essendon
North Melbourne
Bulldogs
possibly Richmond
possibly Sydney
Geelong
Essendon
North Melbourne
Bulldogs
possibly Richmond
possibly Sydney
KissKiss
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 26, 2012
- 7,754
- 8,785
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Funnily enough its not that bad a ladder prediction. I mean I doubt that Collingwood will be that bad but from a crowd sourced methed its not terrible
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #38
Dredd
Cancelled
- Oct 8, 2014
- 539
- 334
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Tottenham
Off topic: you realise Hazard plays for Chelsea?
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #40
Haha yeah I sure do. Hazard has been my nickname for the better part of 15 years and I think it's pretty cool that now there's a famous player with that name. I still wouldn't wear a Chelsea jersey in public though.
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #41
It does take loss of personnel into consideration if any of the people voting believe it is relevant.
- Oct 5, 2013
- 9,443
- 15,271
- AFL Club
- Geelong
- Banned
- #42
who are the people that vote?
- Thread starter
- Banned
- #43
I'd say the opposite, I'd say they had one section of their team (defence) decimated by injuries and they lost a huge number of games they'd otherwise most likely have won during that period. Chances are they have a better run with injuries next season and could easily end up top 2. They're the only other team during Finals that looked a chance IMO.
North have recruited old players. Older players tend to be more injury prone.
North already have an old list.
Two of their highly prized recruits are extremely injury prone (Waite/Higgins) and are past 27.
If North cop a few injuries they are in big trouble.
North already have an old list.
Two of their highly prized recruits are extremely injury prone (Waite/Higgins) and are past 27.
If North cop a few injuries they are in big trouble.
razaxp360
Senior List
- Nov 17, 2013
- 298
- 295
- AFL Club
- Richmond
I'd love to see us significantly improve, but dimmas reluctance to play new players in positions such as newmans half back flank role and possibly foley taking up blooding another young mid may cost us IMO. Development to a majority of our list hasn't been sufficient either in recent seasons. King, nahas, a edwards, jackson, tuck, white and mcguane were all regulars in season 2013.. now gone. Therefore i think we'll go backwards this year, seeing the comeback this year as a bit of an emotional roller coaster.
- Banned
- #47
This is such rubbish.
We just made a prelim with 3 first year players mate.
We have the best depth going around in every position but ruck.
Injuries? Swallow, Wells, Hansen, Ziebell & Mullet played * all this year so not sure that's going to affect us given our depth has actually improved.
And kids like Wood, Dumont, Garner, McKenzie, Harper even barely played/didn't play.
We didn't waste our draft picks on old injury prone players, we got them for free.
Our older mids are all outside.
Wells, Harvey, Dal Santo, Higgins are getting on but they are pretty bloody good still.
Can't see us going backwards.
Bailey01
Norm Smith Medallist
Hmmm Dumont huh? We'll see what happens to him over his stupid incident of robbing a taxi driver. Lol
I don't see it like this at all. Every team rates their young players but the reality is that they are never actually any good until they are tried and tested over a long period.
You didn't waste draft picks but you didn't get Waite and Higgins for free, you lost Greenwood for "free" and ate up cap space on the hope that Waite and Higgins stay on the park.
You recruited injury plagued players. Wells has been injury plagued except for last year. Hardly a surprise that North did so well. Harvey is getting on and misses 3-4 games through suspension every season.
Duke Dumont? I saw him at Stereosonic? Not sure how he will help.
- Banned
- #50
He is bloody good. Slow, but consistent and good. Would have played plenty of footy last year had it not been for Cunnington, Ziebell, Swallow an Greenwood.
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Poll
