Administration - The AFL v NRL *Moderator Approved* - Rules in OP

[bigleague]

There's still crossover in the samples though in these metro regions. They aren't independent samples. So you simply can't just add the metro and regional figures together. Even the ratings agencies admit this.

No there isn't because regional tam only monitors regional networks using only their ratings boxes, which are the samples, and are independent of oztams ratings boxes. Both bodies are completely separate from each other, with Neilson TAM compiling the data to form ratings estimates for both. Some population crossover occurs when extrapolating from the sample to the population to form ratings estimates in areas that are covered by both regional tam and oztam coverage maps.

The guidelines are clear and they say as long as they are reported as 'combined metro + regional' it can be used. The ABC have just announced from next year they will no longer report metro ratings and instead only report a combined metro and regional figure. It is certainly on the agenda and will likely be industry standard in the not to distant future.

 

[mighty tiges]

No there isn't because regional tam only monitors regional networks using only their ratings boxes, which are the samples, and are independent of oztams ratings boxes. Both bodies are completely separate from each other, with Neilson TAM compiling the data to form ratings estimates for both. Some population crossover occurs when extrapolating from the sample to the population to form ratings estimates in areas that are covered by both regional tam and oztam coverage maps.

The guidelines are clear and they say as long as they are reported as 'combined metro + regional' it can be used. The ABC have just announced from next year they will no longer report metro ratings and instead only report a combined metro and regional figure. It is certainly on the agenda and will likely be industry standard in the not to distant future.

[CEO of OzTAM, Doug] Peiffer was asked why OzTAM does not include Regional audiences with 5 City Metro numbers.
Regional viewers are measured separately by RegionalTAM (owned by Regional broadcasters) and there is some cross-over in some geographic areas.
“Technically there are some math reasons why you can’t do it.

http://www.tvtonight.com.au/2013/11/how-robust-is-our-ratings-system.html

Peiffer does go on to say they are "heading towards a national panel eventually when the Reach Rules change and consolidation happens in the marketplace.” Let's hope this will mean (i) ALL regions of Australia will be sampled and (ii) no crossover regions.

 

[bigleague]

[CEO of OzTAM, Doug] Peiffer was asked why OzTAM does not include Regional audiences with 5 City Metro numbers.
Regional viewers are measured separately by RegionalTAM (owned by Regional broadcasters) and there is some cross-over in some geographic areas.
“Technically there are some math reasons why you can’t do it.

http://www.tvtonight.com.au/2013/11/how-robust-is-our-ratings-system.html

Peiffer does go on to say they are "heading towards a national panel eventually when the Reach Rules change and consolidation happens in the marketplace.” Let's hope this will mean (i) ALL regions of Australia will be sampled and (ii) no crossover regions.

Which is what I said, population crossover, but guidelines allow reporting of combined metro + regional ratings as long as they are reported that way.

http://www.oztam.com.au/documents/Other/Combining ratings estimates.pdf

 

[Hoops]

Which is what I said, population crossover, but guidelines allow reporting of combined metro + regional ratings as long as they are reported that way.

http://www.oztam.com.au/documents/Other/Combining ratings estimates.pdf

bigleague, if I had a metro 'box' from Oztam and I was watching the NRL on WIN my viewing would be recorded as watching the NRL on 9 by Oztam and that would be reflected in the ratings. Being in a 'spill' area and not having a regional 'box' from Neilson my direct viewing is not recorded but I am in a sample area that has me as a representation of those viewing in that regional area. Therefore double counting not just population but for viewing also.

 

[ringleader]

bigleague, if I had a metro 'box' from Oztam and I was watching the NRL on WIN my viewing would be recorded as watching the NRL on 9 by Oztam and that would be reflected in the ratings.

Wrong. It would not be counted at all. WIN and 9 do not always run the same programs at the same time so Oztam doesn't include them. It's a conspiracy theory invented on Bigfooty. If you bothered to ask Oztam they will confirm this.

 

[Hoops]

Wrong. It would not be counted at all. WIN and 9 do not always run the same programs at the same time so Oztam doesn't include them. It's a conspiracy theory invented on Bigfooty. If you bothered to ask Oztam they will confirm this.

I have asked Oztam and they have confirmed this thankyou very much. Oztam include those that watch on a regional broadcast. what do you think spill even means?

 

[harmesy 37]

The soccer A League is back to averaging about 13,000 atm It usually gets a spike in the first few weeks and all the soccer people start bragging that they are going to be #1 soon - sorry it aint going to happen.When they can command 1.5 - 2 BILLION for FTA TV then they can say they are #1 ATM they are now a distant 3rd behind the AFL and NRL.

I have to admit I was surprised to learn a few weeks ago that the soccer season goes for about 30 weeks. They only have 10 teams - and it goes for 30 weeks!!!

wow..that is a lot of repeat matches, over and over again.

I think they have made a mistake there, but perhaps they are trying to suffocate attention in other sports by having such a long monotonous season.



In regards to other posts from others about RLeague ratings. I am truly amazed by the ratings even allowing for regional discrepancies...their state of origin games rate year after year.

The game of rugby league has to be one the most repetitive/predictable sports out there (as in you know there are going to be tackles after tackles after tackles), but yet the ratings are enormous year after year. You have to give them kudos for that considering the product they have. Saying that, that Souths victory was actually enjoyable to watch. It was nice to see a traditional club (no matter what the sport) win a flag.

I have my doubts as to whether Carlton will win a flag again at least within the next 10 years..and it has been 20 years already....so can sympathise with the South supporters and can understand their joy.

 

[papabear]

IMO the results in Rugby League are far less predictable then AFL, given the tightness of the comp and the scoring system.

In terms of game play, all teams follow there coaches game plan to a degree and have a certain style of play. The same goes with AFL and soccer, it becomes a matter of being able to execute the plan (and adjust to what the defence is doing in front of you), that is why people watch any sport.

 

[bigleague]

bigleague, if I had a metro 'box' from Oztam and I was watching the NRL on WIN my viewing would be recorded as watching the NRL on 9 by Oztam and that would be reflected in the ratings. Being in a 'spill' area and not having a regional 'box' from Neilson my direct viewing is not recorded but I am in a sample area that has me as a representation of those viewing in that regional area. Therefore double counting not just population but for viewing also.

Source? Not that I don't believe you, I am just interested to read it.

From my understanding a box from oztam is not designed to monitor regional stations, such as NBN, that's what regional tam is for, just as regional tam boxes aren't designed to monitor ratings from metro stations, such as 9. That's why regional tam coverage maps don't list metro stations like 9 and oztam don't list regional stations like NBN. However, in areas of geographic crossover this may not be the case, but I'm sure it's still designed in a way that they get the best estimates they can within existing structural constraints.

In any case it still doesn't discriminate just for NRL programming and the networks and ad buyers that subscribe to detailed ratings data would know where crossover occurs and its significance, which if it were the level you suggest the NRL wouldn't have got the tv deal they have. The market has valued the rights in accordance with what it's ratings suggest and it's value to networks. The more decentralised nature of NSW and QLD population means the regional audiences will always be large in those states.

 

[papabear]

The other thing to keep in mind with Rugby League is it also has a nz team in it which isn't included in the ratings.

If you were to include NZs ratings in rugby league they start to look even more impressive.

Then you consider the potential upside of a perth side in rugby league not only adding to perths ratings but the additional ratings from having the perth game played live into a relatively friendly tv spot for the eastern states.

Rugby League has a lot of upside at the moment.

Participation is a bit of an issue, but imo its not going to ever be fixed given the brutal/graphic nature of the game. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see continued growth in touch and oztag.

 

[Hoops]

Source? Not that I don't believe you, I am just interested to read it.

The only evidence I have is an old argument with Ringleader where I posted my reply from Oztam with regard to spill. and he was making the same accusations then as well.

Please note that OzTAM measures all television viewing in the areas above, the viewing to non-metropolitan broadcast being qualified as Spill.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/afl-finals-tv-ratings-week-one.869995/page-3#post-22270549

and how do we know they include these spill figures in their ratings. it says so on the fine print of these ThinkTV reports whose metro figures just happen to be the same as Oztams

Source: OzTAM and RegionalTAM, based on 5 cap cities and 4 aggregated regional markets (excludes Tasmania and WA), total metro shares include spill........

http://www.thinktv.com.au/SiteMedia/W3SVC371/Uploads/Documents/Weekly Ratings Report -Week 32 & 33 2013.pdf

From my understanding a box from oztam is not designed to monitor regional stations, such as NBN, that's what regional tam is for, just as regional tam boxes aren't designed to monitor ratings from metro stations, such as 9. That's why regional tam coverage maps don't list metro stations like 9 and oztam don't list regional stations like NBN. However, in areas of geographic crossover this may not be the case, but I'm sure it's still designed in a way that they get the best estimates they can within existing structural constraints.

In any case it still doesn't discriminate just for NRL programming and the networks and ad buyers that subscribe to detailed ratings data would know where crossover occurs and its significance, which if it were the level you suggest the NRL wouldn't have got the tv deal they have. The market has valued the rights in accordance with what it's ratings suggest and it's value to networks. The more decentralised nature of NSW and QLD population means the regional audiences will always be large in those states.

The reason the NRL got the TV deal they have is because it rates well especially in Australias biggest ad revenue market by far of Sydney despite having similar viewers to that of Melbourne. This also shows that ad buyers don't look that closley at region by region ratings or otherwise Melbounes ad revenue would larger than that of Sydney especially when you consider that a large chunk of Sydney's viewers are watching on the regional broadcast.

 

[bigleague]

The only evidence I have is an old argument with Ringleader where I posted my reply from Oztam with regard to spill. and he was making the same accusations then as well.

Please note that OzTAM measures all television viewing in the areas above, the viewing to non-metropolitan broadcast being qualified as Spill.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/afl-finals-tv-ratings-week-one.869995/page-3#post-22270549

and how do we know they include these spill figures in their ratings. it says so on the fine print of these ThinkTV reports whose metro figures just happen to be the same as Oztams

Source: OzTAM and RegionalTAM, based on 5 cap cities and 4 aggregated regional markets (excludes Tasmania and WA), total metro shares include spill........

http://www.thinktv.com.au/SiteMedia/W3SVC371/Uploads/Documents/Weekly Ratings Report -Week 32 & 33 2013.pdf



The reason the NRL got the TV deal they have is because it rates well especially in Australias biggest ad revenue market by far of Sydney despite have similar viewers to that of Melbourne. This also shows that ad buyers don't look that closley at region by region ratings or otherwise Melbounes ad revenue would larger than that of Sydney especially when you consider that a large chunk of Sydney's viewers are watching on the regional broadcast.

If metro ratings include spill and regional ratings exclude spill, it evens out? Since they crossover the same geographic area, for every viewer watching on regional stations and being picked up on oztam and included as metro viewers there are likely metro viewers being picked up by regionaltam and excluded in regional ratings?

Where are the 'large chunk of Sydney's viewers are watching on the regional broadcast'?

 

[Hoops]

If metro ratings include spill and regional ratings exclude spill, it evens out? Since they crossover the same geographic area, for every viewer watching on regional stations and being picked up on oztam and included as metro viewers there are likely metro viewers being picked up by regionaltam and excluded?

What you said is correct apart from the evening out part. Yes those that watch metro broadcast are excluded by Regional TAM but their viewing is still statiscally counted in the Metro broadcast. whereas those that watch the regional broadcast in the overlap area are counted in both the metro and regional statisics. I'm better with numbers than words so let me show you an example.

Metro only pop = 1,000k
Reg only pop = 1,000k
overlap areas = 200k
total pop = 2,200,000

total metro pop = 1,200k
total regional pop = 1,200k

let's say 10% of each area watched a particular program that's
100K + 100k + 20k = 220k that precisely watched the program.

of those 20k that watched in the overlap areas half was on the regional broadcast (10k) and half was on the Metro broadcast(10k)
Oztam would have 110k + 10k(spill) = 120k
RegionalTAM would have 110k

so adding them together would be 120k + 110k = 230k which is greater than the 220k that actually watched the program.

to get a more representative figure for the area surveyed you should not include any spill.

Where are the 'large chunk of Sydney's viewers are watching on the regional broadcast'?

the only evidence I've got of that is an old 'Market Snapshot' Oztam released 3 years ago. It had the spill figures for Sydney at 5.3% and Brisbane at 6.2% for that particular point in time.

http://www.oztam.com.au/documents/other/Metropolitan Market Snapshot UPDATED 131011.pdf

 

[bigleague]

What you said is correct apart from the evening out part. Yes those that watch metro broadcast are excluded by Regional TAM but their viewing is still statiscally counted in the Metro broadcast. whereas those that watch the regional broadcast in the overlap area are counted in both the metro and regional statisics. I'm better with numbers than words so let me show you an example.

Metro only pop = 1,000k
Reg only pop = 1,000k
overlap areas = 200k
total pop = 2,200,000

total metro pop = 1,200k
total regional pop = 1,200k

let's say 10% of each area watched a particular program that's
100K + 100k + 20k = 220k that precisely watched the program.

of those 20k that watched in the overlap areas half was on the regional broadcast (10k) and half was on the Metro broadcast(10k)
Oztam would have 110k + 10k(spill) = 120k
RegionalTAM would have 110k

so adding them together would be 120k + 110k = 230k which is greater than the 220k that actually watched the program.

to get a more representative figure for the area surveyed you should not include any spill.

the only evidence I've got of that is an old 'Market Snapshot' Oztam released 3 years ago. It had the spill figures for Sydney at 5.3% and Brisbane at 6.2% for that particular point in time.

http://www.oztam.com.au/documents/other/Metropolitan Market Snapshot UPDATED 131011.pdf

But you are ignoring those metro viewers being picked up by regionaltam and excluded as spill-in, so really your example should be metro +10k spill, regional -10k spill.

 

[The_Wookie]

But you are ignoring those metro viewers being picked up by regionaltam and excluded as spill-in, so really your example should be metro +10k spill, regional -10k spill.

Im not sure thats what he's saying. Its essentially. metro + some regional spill and regional alone. could be wrong.

 

[bigleague]

Im not sure thats what he's saying. Its essentially. metro + some regional spill and regional alone. could be wrong.

There is spill for both regionaltam and oztam, oztam include spill, regionaltam exclude spill, so in geographic crossover areas those watching regional station with a oztam ratings box are included in metro ratings sample, but those watching metro station with a regionaltam ratings box are not included in regional ratings sample. So there are those not being counted In regional ratings, which is not the same as saying there is no effect on the sample, it's essentially the opposite effect of adding spill.

I don't think there is enough publicly available information for us to understand the significance of crossover areas for ratings or even how they go about calculating them. It's guesswork.

 

[Hoops]

But you are ignoring those metro viewers being picked up by regionaltam and excluded as spill-in, so really your example should be metro +10k spill, regional -10k spill.

I don't get what you're saying RegionalTAM include those watching the regional broadcast in the overlapping area because to them it's not spill. Spill is not viewing in an overlapping area. To Oztam its those that watch the regional broadcast and for RegionalTAM it's those that watch the Metro broadcast

 

[Hoops]

There is spill for both regionaltam and oztam, oztam include spill, regionaltam exclude spill, so in geographic crossover areas those watching regional station with a oztam ratings box are included in metro ratings sample, but those watching metro station with a regionaltam ratings box are not included in regional ratings sample. So there are those not being counted In regional ratings, which is not the same as saying there is no effect on the sample, it's essentially the opposite effect of adding spill.

I don't think there is enough publicly available information for us to understand the significance of crossover areas for ratings or even how they go about calculating them. It's guesswork.

What you are saying is correct but not your conclusion. If you look at the regional ratings alone. Yes those that are watching metro are not represented, and as a percentage of viewers the numbers are actually under what the sample population actually it's representing . But when you combine (add) them with metro you have the effect of not only adding those that watch metro including those in the overlapping region but those watching the regional broadcast which is also included in the regional figures. Every one is counted but those that watch the regional broadcast in the metro area are effectively counted twice

 

[Cmarsh]

The soccer A League is back to averaging about 13,000 atm It usually gets a spike in the first few weeks and all the soccer people start bragging that they are going to be #1 soon - sorry it aint going to happen.When they can command 1.5 - 2 BILLION for FTA TV then they can say they are #1 ATM they are now a distant 3rd behind the AFL and NRL.

A league crowds have been a little down. This weekend apart from the MV game have not been good. Less than 10k for the Melbourne city game and the Perth Glory game, and the WSW barely got 14k today, so they are slipping a little too. They have a mighty long season ahead and once the BBL starts and the cricket world cup more attendance pressure will be felt.

 

[Gigantor]

A league crowds have been a little down. This weekend apart from the MV game have not been good. Less than 10k for the Melbourne city game and the Perth Glory game, and the WSW barely got 14k today, so they are slipping a little too. They have a mighty long season ahead and once the BBL starts and the cricket world cup more attendance pressure will be felt.

It's as if the big blockbuster games in the opening two or three rounds sustain the A-League average for the rest of the season.

Starts off huge, 20k+ averages, then it just gets whittled down, whittled down, stabilises each time another derby comes along (afterall, they play each other three times per season), but keeps getting whittled down until they end up somewhere between 13k and 14k (which is still pretty good to be honest).

Interestingly, the record average attendance is still from season 2 (when there were 8 teams and the Victory had some very big attendances at Etihad), but the current 10 team comp has been getting a little closer to it the last couple of years.

 

[Demonoid]

It's as if the big blockbuster games in the opening two or three rounds sustain the A-League average for the rest of the season.

Starts off huge, 20k+ averages, then it just gets whittled down, whittled down, stabilises each time another derby comes along (afterall, they play each other three times per season), but keeps getting whittled down until they end up somewhere between 13k and 14k (which is still pretty good to be honest).

Interestingly, the record average attendance is still from season 2 (when there were 8 teams and the Victory had some very big attendances at Etihad), but the current 10 team comp has been getting a little closer to it the last couple of years.

Yes they start with a bang (and do quite well given the Horse Racing is in full swing and you have Bathurst as well).

The A-league desperately need more teams but there is no where to put them. Sydney and Melbourne have 2 teams each (and City is still struggling to draw a crowd) plus you have Newcastle and Central Coast also struggling. Brisbane is not big enough for a second team, ditto Perth and Adelaide. Gallop is on record saying "I see expansion as something where you need to fish where the fish are. Go where the biggest opportunities are and the biggest opportunities are where millions of people live, not hundreds of thousands of people live."

Only big population centre (over 500k) with no team is Gold Coast, and we all know how that turned out - no appetite at all). NSW already have 4 teams.
They'll struggle here in Canberra too - although it could be worth a shot.

 

[RodneyMaynard]

They'll struggle here in Canberra too - although it could be worth a shot.

They'd do alright here I think. When the sun comes out people here start going to things. Good attendances at the cricket, the multicultural fest etc. I think a Canberra team would easily have a bigger average attendance than Melbourne City FC. The crowd they got here for the FFA cup game against the victoy shows there's support for soccer here.

 

[Gigantor]

Yes they start with a bang (and do quite well given the Horse Racing is in full swing and you have Bathurst as well).

The A-league desperately need more teams but there is no where to put them. Sydney and Melbourne have 2 teams each (and City is still struggling to draw a crowd) plus you have Newcastle and Central Coast also struggling. Brisbane is not big enough for a second team, ditto Perth and Adelaide. Gallop is on record saying "I see expansion as something where you need to fish where the fish are. Go where the biggest opportunities are and the biggest opportunities are where millions of people live, not hundreds of thousands of people live."

Only big population centre (over 500k) with no team is Gold Coast, and we all know how that turned out - no appetite at all). NSW already have 4 teams.
They'll struggle here in Canberra too - although it could be worth a shot.

I think both Canberra and Wollongong would be worth a shot.

 

[papabear]

imo if the AFL rejects a spot to expand, its foolish for other sports to go there.

If the AFL doesn't think the Canberra market can sustain an AFL team why should the a league bother imo.

 

[The_Wookie]

imo if the AFL rejects a spot to expand, its foolish for other sports to go there.

If the AFL doesn't think the Canberra market can sustain an AFL team why should the a league bother imo.

Costs associated with running an aleague club are assumed to be far less than that associated with running an AFL club. For one, the Salary Cap is a quarter of an AFL club.