NFL 2014 NFL - Week 13 (Thanksgiving)

[Exe Gesis]

4-12 wouldn't be good enough for the bucs. tiebreakers

But 4-11-1 they could

 

[Exe Gesis]

Btw, I said it in my week 4 podcast....Justin Forsett.....comeback player of the year.....should've thrown a Benjamin on it.

 

[Exe Gesis]

NFC playoffs could see a 5-11 team in and a 12-4 team out
Posted by Michael David Smith on November 24, 2014, 10:21 AM EST

AP
Here’s how bad the NFC South is, and how good the NFC wild card race is: There are scenarios in which a 5-11 team is in the playoffs as NFC South champion, and a 12-4 team is left out of the playoffs entirely.

We noted last week that it’s entirely possible that a five-win team could win the NFC South. That scenario only became more plausible on Sunday, when both NFC South teams in action lost.

And with four of the NFC’s worst teams concentrated in one division, that means there are more good teams in the other divisions than there are playoff spots available. There are seven NFC teams — the Cardinals, Packers, Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks, Lions and 49ers — that could still win 12 games, and there are plausible scenarios in which six of those seven actually reach the 12-win mark. (All seven can’t do it because the Seahawks and 49ers, who still play each other twice, can’t both get to 12 wins.) Only five of those seven teams with hopes of getting to 12 wins can make the playoffs because at least one of the six NFC playoff spots has to go to the NFC South champion.

Using ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine, I found a scenario that saw the Packers finishing at 12-4, losing the NFC North tiebreaker to the 12-4 Lions, and then losing the NFC wild card tiebreaker to the 12-4 Cowboys and 49ers.

Green Bay fans would be livid if that happened, although that scenario is a long shot. However, there are plausible scenarios that have an 11-5 team missing the playoffs while a 5-11 team wins the NFC South.

There’s been increasing talk in recent years about adding a seventh playoff team in each conference, and that seems to be something NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell wants. Goodell and the owners, of course, are motivated primarily by the extra revenue that extra playoff games could bring. But there’s nothing that could get the fans to support expanding the playoffs more than a seemingly deserving team being shut out. That’s likely to happen this year.

 

[raven echo]

This is a disgrace. The Bucs could feasibly win the division with a 5-11 record, maybe even 4-12

View attachment 94222

* me that is laughable

 

[raven echo]

Using ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine, I found a scenario that saw the Packers finishing at 12-4, losing the NFC North tiebreaker to the 12-4 Lions, and then losing the NFC wild card tiebreaker to the 12-4 Cowboys and 49ers.

Green Bay fans would be livid if that happened, although that scenario is a long shot. However, there are plausible scenarios that have an 11-5 team missing the playoffs while a 5-11 team wins the NFC South.

I will destroy things if that happens.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Working Friday damn it.

You're a ******* Cowboys fan.
You know a lifetime in advance that this day your team is playing.
Don't be mad, only have yourself to blame.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Green Bay fans would be livid if that happened, although that scenario is a long shot. However, there are plausible scenarios that have an 11-5 team missing the playoffs while a 5-11 team wins the NFC South.

Too bad there wont be a 5-11 team winning the NFC South.
It'll either be a 7-9 Saints or 6-10 Falcons.

Winner of week 16 gets it.

 

[Brasher]

There are seven NFC teams — the Cardinals, Packers, Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks, Lions and 49ers — that could still win 12 games

Did this author also write the WMD speeches for George W?

Of the seven teams he mentions, three will be divisional champs, two will get WC spots and only one of the two remaining will be "unlucky" as they will have a better record than the NFC South Divisional Champion and the remaining team would have missed out anyway.

Not one of those teams mentioned also doesn't control their own destiny.

What we do have though is an awesome NFC playoff race with the horses entering the straight this Thanksgiving.

 

[Brasher]

Using ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine, I found a scenario that saw the Packers finishing at 12-4, losing the NFC North tiebreaker to the 12-4 Lions, and then losing the NFC wild card tiebreaker to the 12-4 Cowboys and 49ers.

Green Bay fans would be livid if that happened, although that scenario is a long shot. However, there are plausible scenarios that have an 11-5 team missing the playoffs while a 5-11 team wins the NFC South.

I will destroy things if that happens.

Sad if it happens, but remember you can't have it both ways, lamenting miss a playoff spot to a worse team in the NFC South after the NFC North played the two worse divisions in football. Packers/Lions may not even have got to 10 wins if they played the West this year.

 

[JeffDunne]

I do find the self-righteous bleating about undeserving teams in the playoffs tiresome.

The same people weren't whinging when NFC South teams were missing out on playoff spots or playing on the road to teams with lessor records.

I suspect this will trigger yet another NFC South rule change made by the NFL. Like the changes to overtime rules when the Vikings sooked about losing a playoff, the Jimmy Graham rule, the Joe Horn rule, etc

 

[Exe Gesis]

The NFL will just add a seventh playoff team next year.

 

[nobbyiscool]

I suspect this will trigger yet another NFC South rule change made by the NFL. Like the changes to overtime rules when the Vikings sooked about losing a playoff, the Jimmy Graham rule, the Joe Horn rule, etc

But how often does this happen?

Yes, there was conversation last year about the Cardinals missing out with 10 wins - but every team that made the playoffs was better than .500, so who do they replace? Unless you blow up the divisional system, the only thing you could do is legislate for very rare occurrences like this year - in which case, is it even worth doing?

Off the top of my head, maybe the "3rd wildcard" gets the spot if they're more than 2 games better than the 4th divisional winner. Or maybe if the 4th divisional winner is worse than .500 and the 3rd wildcard is better than .500 (not equal to, but better than).

But even with a rule change to cater for rare occurrences, I'd hate to see NFC teams going into AFC playoffs, or vice-verse.

The NFL will just add a seventh playoff team next year.

I think you're right, but it's the worst solution of all, because it just increases the chance of teams being mediocre for 17 weeks and being "world champions" based on a 4 week hot streak (see Giants, Ravens).

 

[Exe Gesis]

But how often does this happen?

Yes, there was conversation last year about the Cardinals missing out with 10 wins - but every team that made the playoffs was better than .500, so who do they replace? Unless you blow up the divisional system, the only thing you could do is legislate for very rare occurrences like this year - in which case, is it even worth doing?

Off the top of my head, maybe the "3rd wildcard" gets the spot if they're more than 2 games better than the 4th divisional winner. Or maybe if the 4th divisional winner is worse than .500 and the 3rd wildcard is better than .500 (not equal to, but better than).

But even with a rule change to cater for rare occurrences, I'd hate to see NFC teams going into AFC playoffs, or vice-verse.




I think you're right, but it's the worst solution of all, because it just increases the chance of teams being mediocre for 17 weeks and being "world champions" based on a 4 week hot streak (see Giants, Ravens).

Better a worse team entering than a good team missing out. There'll be years for both happening. Remember 7/16 is still a good percentage, less than 50% making it. AFL has now 8/18 but used to be 8/16 for ages.

 

[JeffDunne]

The aspect that people forget is sometimes teams with a good record are gifted that record from playing in a shitty division with a soft schedule.

Divisional playoff seedings helps cover the inequities of the schedule. That's the part of this debate people conveniently forget.

You can't change that without changing how you do the scheduling. In fact I'd argue the Divisions become irrelevant if you change playoff seedings to W/L.

The Divisional structure of the NFL is one of the reasons for its greatness. If they ever replace it with a contrived fixture like the AFL then I'll quickly lose interest.

 

[Southerntakeover]

The aspect that people forget is sometimes teams with a good record are gifted that record from playing in a shitty division with a soft schedule.

Divisional playoff seedings helps cover the inequities of the schedule. That's the part of this debate people conveniently forget.

You can't change that without changing how you do the scheduling. In fact I'd argue the Divisions become irrelevant if you change playoff seedings to W/L.

The Divisional structure of the NFL is one of the reasons for its greatness. If they ever replace it with a contrived fixture like the AFL then I'll quickly lose interest.

Look, I tend to agree overall.

At 4-12 it probably becomes hard to sustain though- that really means that you're probably winning practically no games outside your division which contradicts the claim that other divisions are inflated against themselves.

Doesn't mean the system should change though- far prefer the divisional system. It allows far more boom to bust situations, and why feel sorry for a team that can't be amongst the top two 'best of the rests' in the conference?

And I say this knowing full well that the likely result is that the Eagles get double digit wins and miss playoffs.

 

[JeffDunne]

Not sure 4-12 is possible but regardless, if all four NFC South teams were like Jacksonville then the debate might have some merit.

Atlanta, New Orleans & Carolina are all more than capable of doing what Arizona did in being the worst ranked playoff team and win through to a SB.

The same debate was had when the NFC West was sending 7-9 teams to the playoffs, now they are a conference likely to miss out.

Tough.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Not sure 4-12 is possible but regardless, if all four NFC South teams were like Jacksonville then the debate might have some merit.

Atlanta, New Orleans & Carolina are all more than capable of doing what Arizona did in being the worst ranked playoff team and win through to a SB.

The same debate was had when the NFC West was sending 7-9 teams to the playoffs, now they are a conference likely to miss out.

Tough.

This discussion was going so well!

Look, I'll give you New Orleans, they still scare me a bit come playoffs - but they've got to get there first.

I'd love the Eagles to come up against Atlanta or Carolina, because both teams are a dumpster fire who have no chance come playoffs.

 

[Brasher]

The aspect that people forget is sometimes teams with a good record are gifted that record from playing in a shitty division with a soft schedule.

I think this is the point I'm trying to make. In the old realignment days (and sorry to bring this old memory JD), the 49ers, in a 4 team division, used to pretty much run rough shod over the Rams, Saints and Falcons securing a playoff spot by early December, year in year out.

A seven team playoff system will cover the strength of schedule argument as I see the NFC South argument this year as an anomaly rather than the norm. With seven teams you have four divisional champs and most likely the runner up from the three strongest divisions.

 

[00Stinger]

Anyone know any pubs/bars in Echuca/Moama that show the games?

Really want to watch the 49ers v Seattle game

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Atlanta and carolina are no where near capable of making the SB

 

[ausbacker]

The aspect that people forget is sometimes teams with a good record are gifted that record from playing in a shitty division with a soft schedule.

Divisional playoff seedings helps cover the inequities of the schedule. That's the part of this debate people conveniently forget.

You can't change that without changing how you do the scheduling. In fact I'd argue the Divisions become irrelevant if you change playoff seedings to W/L.

The Divisional structure of the NFL is one of the reasons for its greatness. If they ever replace it with a contrived fixture like the AFL then I'll quickly lose interest.

There's nothing wrong with the current structure of the NFL by way of divisions and playoffs. People complaining about it are complaining about something that is a rare occurrence.

Seattle at New Orleans would be full circle.

 

[Blacky]

Detroit has cut Kellen













Davis

 

[Dirty Bird]

Not sure 4-12 is possible but regardless,

3-13 is possible.
All4teams go 0-10 outside their division, then all 4 teams split each series with each other 1-1.

It's also possible for a 13-3 team to miss the playoffs doing the same thing. 10-0 outside the division. 3-3 in the division.

 

[Sven]

There's nothing wrong with the current structure of the NFL by way of divisions and playoffs. People complaining about it are complaining about something that is a rare occurrence.

Seattle at New Orleans would be full circle.

I completely agree - the reality is that it's only a VERY rare season where an entire division is sub-par. The draft is designed to even out the teams by giving weak teams the first pick of cherry. The problem for the eventual NFC South division winner is that they are going to have pick 21 and the runner up in the division could be picking up to 10 picks earlier even though they have the same record!

 

[Blacky]

Stats can be deceiving too. From the above AFC West looks pretty average, but it's quite a competitive division. Albeit with one (perennial) dog