Which clubs are in the most trouble? (Age wise)

[RUNVS]

So for this I picked players that were over the age of 29 right at this moment. Looking at the clubs below which clubs do you think are in the most trouble in terms of replacing aging stars and for your own club who do you see coming through that can replace the guys who are 29 years or older?


Geelong (9)
(Enright, Johnson, Bartel, Kelly, Lonergan, Mackie, McIntosh, Rivers, Stokes)


Fremantle (8)
(McPharlin, Pavlich, Sandilands, Crowley, Johnson, Duffield, Mundy, Silvia)


North Melbourne (7)
(Harvey, Petrie, Waite, Firrito, Dal Santo, Wells, Grima)


Essendon (6)
(Fletcher, Chapman, Winderlich, Watson, Goddard, Cooney)


Hawthorn (6)
(Lake, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Gibson, Hale, Hodge


Sydney (6)
(Goodes, Shaw, Richards, Pyke, McVeigh, McGlynn)


Brisbane (4)
(Staker, Maquire, Merrett, Adcock)


St Kilda (4)
(Fisher, Riewoldt, Montagna, Dempster)


Western Bulldogs (4)
(Murphy, M.Boyd, Morris, Minson)


Adelaide (3)
(Podsiadly, Thompson, Reilly)


Carlton (3)
(Judd, Carrazzo, Simpson)


Melbourne (3)
(Cross, Jamar, Vince)


Gold Coast (2)
(Ablett, Malceski)


Greater Western Sydney (2)
(Patfull, Shaw)


Port Adelaide (2)
(Cornes, Schulz)


Richmond (2)
(Newman, Foley)


Collingwood (1)
(Swan)


West Coast (1)
(Priddis)

 

[RUNVS]

For the Swans

Goodes - Right now Goodes is playing as a key forward but we could replace him with a midfielder so I will go with Dunkley)
Shaw - Jones
Richards - Hopefully one of X.Richards or Aliir Aliir)
Pyke - Hopefully one of Neismith or Nankervis)
McVeigh - Heeney
McGlynn - Mills

Right now the hardest players for the Swans to replace are Richards and Pyke.

 

[MC_9]

Obviously it is very difficult to replace champions, but for the Hawks the players that will likely step into the team.

Lake - Frawley to take the no1 KPF, with one of Schoenmakers or Spangher to come into the team.
Mitchell - Alex Woodward
Burgoyne - Jed Anderson
Gibson - Stratton to play Gibsons role more, with Litherland coming into the team.
Hale - John Ceglar
Hodge - Brendan Whitecross

With the likes of Jono O'Rouke and Billy Hartaung also pressing for a spot.

 

[Moist Biscuit]

Obviously Brisbane, with superstars like Staker, Merrett, McGuire and Adcock coming to the end of it.

 

[fabulousphil]

Greater Western Sydney (2)
(Patfull, Shaw)

Rather than be a hindrance, this should actually be a bonus.

 

[Neville Bartos]

Why is 29 considered old?

This exercise would only be relevant if you created a bar graph for each team with:

# players 19 and under
# players 20 and under
# players 21 and under
# players 22 and under
# players 23 and under
# players 24 and under
# players 25 and under
# players 26 and older
# players 27 and older
# players 28 and older
# players 29 and older
# players 30 and older
# players 31 and older
# players 32 and older

 

[Richo83]

Good thread. For Richmond, Foley is already been phased out slowly even though he played 18 matches, he started 5 of them as sub. Only averaged 16 touches, doesn't provide much attacking threat, and isn't much of a contested player anymore. It's a similar case with Newman. So phasing them out wont be a problem, you could replace Foley with say Miles and Ellis playing his role. Newman's role could be replaced by someone like Vlastuin, and it's not hard to find a small defender anyway.

 

[TedDougChris]

Dogs have Campbell in the wings learning to be the #1 ruckman, so he'll replace Minson when his time comes.

Boyd is into his last year and we'd hope that Stringer, Bontempelli, Hrovat, Hunter etc push him out of the side through weight of performances - although with the offseason we've had - I'm glad he's stayed on for another year (I was initially against it).

Morris and Murphy are the two hardest to replace. Unfortunately we seem to have an issue with drafting tall guys - so Morris needs to play for another decade or so. Murphy will be hard to replace as well.

 

[Jobe]

I don't think Essendon's issue is player age at this point..

 

[BobHawk]

Interesting that three of the top four teams from 2014 have key players in the twilight of their careers. Would seem that the flag is there for the taking for a team like Port. Did remind me a bit of Hawthorn Circa 2007 this year and Hinkley seems to have become a cult like figure to the players.

 

[Sprout]

26+ would've been a better measure for "old".

Obviously need to look at the importance of those players to the side. Dogs for example only have a few but they are pretty important players I would've thought.

From our perspective, Vince will be a loss as he has brought a touch of class to the midfield with his kicking and general willingness to take the game on. From memory he actually led the league for metres gained at one point. We now have several players to fill that void but they are mostly babies - Toumpas, Salem, Stretch etc.

Jamar is still a great tap ruckman but provides little else, and Gawn could in all likelihood be overtaking him this season anyhow.

Cross is a journeyman and you know what you get from him. The greatest hole he will leave is as a tagger, which someone like Grimes could end up filling. Neal-Bullen could also become a similar type of player.

Generally speaking, age and impending retirement is not an issue for us.

 

[Tas]

So for this I picked players that were over the age of 29 right at this moment. Looking at the clubs below which clubs do you think are in the most trouble in terms of replacing aging stars and for your own club who do you see coming through that can replace the guys who are 29 years or older?

North Melbourne (7)
(Harvey, Petrie, Waite, Firrito, Dal Santo, Wells, Grima)

I think we have plenty of young players, getting a few players from free agency has accelerated the age of the list getting NDS and Waite. Due to the recruitment during the Laidley era it left us a bit thin in terms of good quality mature players. I think hard workers like Firrito, Gibson, McMahon and Adams are the last of the Clydesdales, I'd be surprised if any other than Gibson to be around after 2015 and expect Gibson to fade off as quickly as Anthony did if we get a reasonable strike rate from the good quality younger players.

Key Position players are the biggest issue when it comes to age because it can take a while to find a new one, which surprised me with Freo going for mids this year despite the number of KPPs available.

Key Forwards:
Petrie(32), Waite(31), Tarrant(25)*,Daw(23), Black(23), Brown(22), Wood(21), Durdin(18)*
*possible defenders

Key Defenders:
Grima(29), Thompson(28), Hansen(26), Tippett(26), Tarrant(25)*, Durdin(18)*, Nielson(18)
*possible forwards

I don't hold high hopes for Daw, will need to see how Black bounces back after his shoulder operation, was pretty ordinary this year.

Petrie and Waite are contracted to 2016. I think 2015 will be the last year for Grima and Firrito. I think Waite coming in will take a bit of pressure off of Brown and Black, Wood probably is a strong option to push for senior selection if the opportunity arises.

Key defender stocks a fair bit leaner which is why we recruited three defenders in the senior draft. I think we have enough mature KPDs that the draftees will have time to develop.

There will be a transition in the middle with Harvey, Wells, NDS among the smaller mids, they are all very good quality players. Wells and NDS contracted until 2016, Harvey is a year by year basis.

Swallow is a potential free agent at the end of 2015, will see if he re-signs early or not. Despite losing Greenwood we are a still a bit inside heavy in the middle. I expect to see McDonald, Atley, Mullett and MacMillan to push more into the middle over 2015 and 2016.

Still some unknowns in first rounders Garner, McKenzie plus second rounders in Harper and Dumont. I'd say Harper and McKenzie would be on thinner ice, Dumont had a good year in the VFL in his first year but after his pre-season antics back home in Adelaide you never know. Garner also has been pretty much unable to play due to LTIs. Depending on how those pan out in 2015 & 2016 I think will probably have a big impact, we aren't relying on them atm but if they don't push out players like Jacobs and Gibson from the side then retirement of some players will be the least of our issues.

We need some more outside speed and X-factor. Wells and Harvey are very good but near the end. Atley played a bit more through the middle towards the end of the year, as did McDonald in his first year.

As long as we have good youth pushing through as the foundation of the club, we might be able to replace a couple of outgoing good quality retirees with free agents.

 

[garlic munchers]

So for this I picked players that were over the age of 29 right at this moment. Looking at the clubs below which clubs do you think are in the most trouble in terms of replacing aging stars and for your own club who do you see coming through that can replace the guys who are 29 years or older

West Coast (1)
(Priddis)

Clearly WC, have to replace a reigning brownlow medalist.

 

[tim cotrill]

fletcher = two players

 

[Silent Alarm]

Freo.

We'll be lucky to finish top four. The fact an entire third of the ground still goes missing without Pav is a testament to the great man.

 

[Silent Alarm]

Also why do people so intently say a 238 game champion who has won a few B&Fs is 32 but can retire because someone his position, height, and possibly weight is similar enough who's 18 and proved bupkis can come in and replace him.

It's a load of s**t. The reason that side is challenging is because that player is very good. It doesn't work like that at all.

 

[Schauermann]

Fremantle (8)
(McPharlin, Pavlich, Sandilands, Crowley, Johnson, Duffield, Mundy, Silvia)

Looks a bit like the worst list here.

Three superstar talls.

But at least our ruck depth is pretty good with Clarke who id well as sole ruck and Griffin (well, pre-injury) as well.

Pav is unlikely to be replaced by a player near his quality anyway. Taberner and Apeness showed promise. Wait and see

McPharlin we have Silvagni. And a few unproven ones like A. Pearce or T.Smith (when he is redrafted).

Crowley, Johnson, Duffield, Mundy probably not that bad. Crowley I could see DeBoer take his role or a more offensive player like many suggested already this year. Johnson we have Ibbotson who can play a similar role. Duffield and Mundy probably reasonable easily replacedas well. Mids and backflankers are not that difficult to find even when they may be a bit less classy.

Silvia needs to make the team regularly first before we start to worry about a replacement.


But talls are obviously a bit a worry. Since they are more difficult to find and develop. Most smaller player can have quickly an impact and be a decent replacement.

Key Forwards:
Petrie(32), Waite(31), Tarrant(25)*,Daw(23), Black(23), Brown(22), Wood(21), Durdin(18)*
*possible defenders

Key Defenders:
Grima(29), Thompson(28), Hansen(26), Tippett(26), Tarrant(25)*, Durdin(18)*, Nielson(18)
*possible forwards

Actually think that looks pretty good agewise.

 

[Cristiano Ronaldo]

we'll probably have 3 of them retire at the end of next season and i'm confident we can cope. Not worried at all

 

[Lethality]

Depends on the quality of the replacements. Hawthorn have plenty of youth ready to step in and take the spot of an older player.

 

[syl97]

Also why do people so intently say a 238 game champion who has won a few B&Fs is 32 but can retire because someone his position, height, and possibly weight is similar enough who's 18 and proved bupkis can come in and replace him.

It's a load of s**t. The reason that side is challenging is because that player is very good. It doesn't work like that at all.

Not sure who you are replying to but I don't think anyone would say that an 18yo could replace Pav. He is going to be very hard to replace. I think that's why some people are going a bit cold on Freo. Mids can be replaced more easily than talls.

 

[Sherrinator]

Freo and North

 

[syl97]

Depends on the quality of the replacements. Hawthorn have plenty of youth ready to step in and take the spot of an older player.

Hawthorn have a number of players at Box Hill who can fill a role (e.g. Litherland, Shoenmakers, etc). The real trick will be to find guys who can do more than just fill a role. I mean really step up to elite level to replace Burgoyne, Mitchell and Hodge. This will be the key for Hawthorn. It's the same issue Geelong and Freo are facing. Each team needs to find two or three elite players without much access to the draft.

 

[Lethality]

Hawthorn have a number of players at Box Hill who can fill a role (e.g. Litherland, Shoenmakers, etc). The real trick will be to find guys who can do more than just fill a role. I mean really step up to elite level to replace Burgoyne, Mitchell and Hodge. This will be the key for Hawthorn. It's the same issue Geelong and Freo are facing. Each team needs to find two or three elite players without much access to the draft.

Langford and Hill were the ones last year, I think Hartung and Anderson will be the breakout players this season, possibly Woodward. Then of course there's the addition of O'Rourke.

 

[syl97]

Langford and Hill were the ones last year, I think Hartung and Anderson will be the breakout players this season, possibly Woodward. Then of course there's the addition of O'Rourke.

Fingers crossed. Sure there are similar blokes at Geelong and Freo who they are hoping will step up to replace the Pavs and Bartels.

 

[blitzer]

In terms of replacements for Essendon i would say something like:

Watson/Goddard - Both have more than a few years left remaining in the tank. We would probably hope long term that guys like Laverdie and Langford end up being their replacements as those tall midfield types. In the short term Myers/Heppell can step up to fill voids when Watson/Goddard are absent.
Chapman/Winderlich - Both are probably in their final year. Zac Merrett is a very good Chapman replacement i reckon - actually can play the same role and has shown great potential. I think Jackson Merrett/Fantasia are decent candidates to replace Winderlich - although still both somewhat unproven.
Cooney - Probably 2 years or more left. Its hard to say who would be his replacement since he hasn't played a game for us yet. Again one of Jackson Merrett/Fantasia might be able to fill the role. To be honest no one really jumps to mind right off the bat - perhaps Gleeson depending on if he develops into more of a mid/fwd type - right now he's been playing mostly off the back half.
Fletcher - Immortal. To be honest i don't have much faith in the likely replacements for him right now in guys like Steinberg, Pears and Gwilt. None are in the same league really. But you don't have to have a super tall 3rd tall - we already have Hooker and Hurley down back so we probably just need to find a smaller agile player who can play tall. Maybe somebody like Ashby or perhaps Langford if he turns out as a defender. We always have Carlisle as and when required as well - although i think he will generally be used forward.