Prediction PAFC Punters' Thread

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Like most here I stand to make a nice amount if Gray is successful tomorrow night ($1700 including $4 @ $251), but I'm keen to semi-hedge. Thoughts on the best way to do this?

I'm thinking $50 on Kennedy @ $10, $50 on Pendlebury @ $15 and $200 on Selwood @ $2.65- don't think Ablett is a chance. How's everyone else approaching tomorrow night?
 
Don't think Gray is a chance to win it. I'm on him each way but think he'll fall short of that finishing in the latter half of the top 10-15. Who knows who will actually win. Umpires are so random. I think reputation counts for alot when they vote so I'd be backing Selwood or Ablett I spose if I had to.
 
Like most here I stand to make a nice amount if Gray is successful tomorrow night ($1700 including $4 @ $251), but I'm keen to semi-hedge. Thoughts on the best way to do this?

I'm thinking $50 on Kennedy @ $10, $50 on Pendlebury @ $15 and $200 on Selwood @ $2.65- don't think Ablett is a chance. How's everyone else approaching tomorrow night?

I was just trying to work this out too. I got him preseason, round 11 and in the no Gary Ablett market so a second place probably isn't as bad a result for me as it is for you. looks like we come up with a similar plan because my best idea so far it to go hard at Selwood, cover costs for Kennedy and Pendles risk Lewis+Heppell. i thought of hedging with some quinellas or most votes for club but i don't see any standout ones. ideally i would have liked a Selwood/Gray exacta but could not find one at decent enough price, the quinella might just do.
 
I'm a bit too chicken to put much on Gray to win the medal, I don't think he'll get enough votes early in the season and not many 3's or 2's during our run of losses. But I do have $20 on him to make the top 5 @ $1.95 on sportsbet.
 
from the TAB for the 2015 season (as of 19 Dec 14)

Port Premiership = $4.75
Port Finalist (reach the GF) = $ 2.75
Port Minor Premier = $5.50
Port top 4 = $1.75
Port top 8 = $1.18

Quinella
Hawks v Port = $6.50
Swans v Port = $9.00
Freo v Port = $17.00

2015 Brownlow (for some of the Port players)

win / place
Gray $15.00 / $4.50
Boaky $26.00 / $7.20
Hammer $67.00 / $17.50
Wines $67.00 / $17.50
Ebo $101.00 / $26.00
Wingard $101.00 / $26.00
Polec $126.00 / $32.00
Lobbe $251.00 / $61.00
Schulzy $251.00 / $61.00
Hoff $251.00 / $61.00
White $251.00 / $61.00
O'Shea $501.00 / $121.00
Monfries $501.00 / $121.00
Ryder $ 501.00 / $121.00
 
from the TAB for the 2015 season (as of 19 Dec 14)

Port Premiership = $4.75
Port Finalist (reach the GF) = $ 2.75
Port Minor Premier = $5.50
Port top 4 = $1.75
Port top 8 = $1.18

Quinella
Hawks v Port = $6.50
Swans v Port = $9.00
Freo v Port = $17.00

2015 Brownlow (for some of the Port players)

win / place
Gray $15.00 / $4.50
Boaky $26.00 / $7.20
Hammer $67.00 / $17.50
Wines $67.00 / $17.50
Ebo $101.00 / $26.00
Wingard $101.00 / $26.00
Polec $126.00 / $32.00
Lobbe $251.00 / $61.00
Schulzy $251.00 / $61.00
Hoff $251.00 / $61.00
White $251.00 / $61.00
O'Shea $501.00 / $121.00
Monfries $501.00 / $121.00
Ryder $ 501.00 / $121.00
Hammer and Hoff look juicy!
 

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I was at a mates place last weekend when a supporter of the other mob pipes up with "I bet you $500 Port won't make the Grand Final".

He then says that we won't make the eight so I ask him what is he putting up for that bet. His response? "$500".

I am on.
 
I was at a mates place last weekend when a supporter of the other mob pipes up with "I bet you $500 Port won't make the Grand Final".

He then says that we won't make the eight so I ask him what is he putting up for that bet. His response? "$500".

I am on.
Last year when Sydney were flying a mate was adamant they'd win the flag.. so I bet him $50 they wouldn't, which he promptly offered to double a week later (which I accepted)

They were $2.50 at the time at Sportsbet so I promptly wacked $80 on Sydney to win the flag so in either outcome I won $20. He still to this day doesn't understand why his bet was bad... Some people just shouldn't gamble
 
I was at a mates place last weekend when a supporter of the other mob pipes up with "I bet you $500 Port won't make the Grand Final".

He then says that we won't make the eight so I ask him what is he putting up for that bet. His response? "$500".

I am on.
LOL what a ballsy bet...in other words "I bet you one team out of the field of 18 won't make it" ooOOHhhh. That's like saying I bet Horse A won't win the Melbourne Cup!

Final 8 is a great bet. Can I get in on that too? :p
 
I'll be whacking money on Boak.
-Our one proven vote getter ("who played well? Ah * it just put Boak down" i.e. Judd, Dangerfield, Cotchin etc
-Hitting his straps as a 26yo
-We'll win a s**t tonne of games, and in a dominant fashion
-He won't miss many; disciplined (no tribunal) and Burgess (no injuries)

Monty for top 5, cracking shot at the big one.
 
I won't be backing any of our boys for the brownlow this year. Barring a freak season it's just too hard for votes with an increase in polling from Hartlett, Gray, Wines, Wingard and consistent polling from Boak and Ebert. Generally big midfield teams don't produce brownlows, I will be targetting all aus this year if I can be bothered tieing money up for 5 months.

That is of course excluding my wtf Westhoff $20 bet because he could seriously win it in 8 games.
 
Last year when Sydney were flying a mate was adamant they'd win the flag.. so I bet him $50 they wouldn't, which he promptly offered to double a week later (which I accepted)

They were $2.50 at the time at Sportsbet so I promptly wacked $80 on Sydney to win the flag so in either outcome I won $20. He still to this day doesn't understand why his bet was bad... Some people just shouldn't gamble
Yeah its like my mates that say i will bet you 50 bucks port wont etc..

My responce- no

Ooooh you scared

No i can just get 3.60 at the tab for the same bet.
 
I won't be backing any of our boys for the brownlow this year. Barring a freak season it's just too hard for votes with an increase in polling from Hartlett, Gray, Wines, Wingard and consistent polling from Boak and Ebert. Generally big midfield teams don't produce brownlows, I will be targetting all aus this year if I can be bothered tieing money up for 5 months.

That is of course excluding my wtf Westhoff $20 bet because he could seriously win it in 8 games.
I am going to drop money on polec...

I was really surprised at how he polled
 

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