AFL 2015

[iluvparis]

MM has taken your Club backwards IMO, wouldnt surprise me if he was one of the first coaches to go in 2015.

Disagree - can't see how he has done a worse job than Ratten.

 

[iluvparis]

Carlton bottom 6 I reckon. Same old Blooz

Same old - how many times have we been bottom 6 in the last 5 years?

Geez the deadshits come out around here once the AFL seaosn starts.

 

[iluvparis]

No but I would think you would be entering each of those games as underdogs though.

In the case of this hypothetical exercise, I was trying to estimate how many games you would win for the season where you enter each game as favourites.

If I am not mistaken you won 2 games as underdogs in 2014 and lost 3 as favourites.

That stat is irrelevant though because those prices would be updated for each teams form as the season goes along.

If you are using that mertirc you would have to look at:
- had every game been priced up at the START of the 2014 season
- how many games did we win when we were the underdog at the start of the season
- how many games did we lose when we were the fave at the start of the season

 

[GROTTO]

Disagree - can't see how he has done a worse job than Ratten.

I was comparing the winning percentage of each coach during their tenure at Carlton, I dont see Malthouse making up the 9.6% discrepancy in 2015 to overtake Ratten. Lets not forget that Carlton got into the 8 in 2013 through fortuitous circumstances while Ratten took the Blues to the finals on merit alone.

Ratten coaching record winning percentage 50.9% during his tenure.

Malthouse is currently at 41.3%

 

[GROTTO]

That stat is irrelevant though because those prices would be updated for each teams form as the season goes along.

If you are using that mertirc you would have to look at:
- had every game been priced up at the START of the 2014 season
- how many games did we win when we were the underdog at the start of the season
- how many games did we lose when we were the fave at the start of the season

I dont think so.

With the 7 games you won in 2014, you would have gone in as favorites in all but the one against the Roos just prior to the bounce. If the books had set the odds for all those games at the start of the season (which they dont) I am confident that Carlton would have been set as favorites as well except the Roos game.

In the 14 games you lost in 2014, you would have probably been listed as favorites in 3 of them and before the bounce. If they were set before the start of the season, I dont think it would change either.

If anyone has historical odds or knows where I can look them up, I would be curious to confirm this.

 

[Jugada]

Bottom 6 for sure for Carlton imo. They have almost no forward line, Henderson is a solid swing man but you don't want him as your main hope. Their immediate list has gone backwards, Judd is another year older, too much will fall on the shoulders of Gibbs and Murphy

Sides around them like Gold Coast and Brisbane have more scope for improvement. Bottom 2 is more likely than top 8 imo

 

[GROTTO]

Judd is another year older, too much will fall on the shoulders of Gibbs and Murphy

Lets not forget they have lost their number one goalscorer Waite in 2014 and who has been in their top 3 for the past three seasons.

 

[Lensen]

If the books had set the odds for all those games at the start of the season (which they dont)

thanks for clarifying that

shittest arguments ever ITT. you work out a % chance of each win before the year and that's what you base your predicted wins on. it's not 100% or 0% that anyone will beat anyone thus to just count "predicted wins" is a fool's way of betting

 

[GROTTO]

thanks for clarifying that

shittest arguments ever ITT. you work out a % chance of each win before the year and that's what you base your predicted wins on. it's not 100% or 0% that anyone will beat anyone thus to just count "predicted wins" is a fool's way of betting

Thank you for being your usual self and keeping the forum classy, you remind me of another poster called @lenny29

I made the hypothetical assessment of the number of wins a team could achieve for the H&A season based on the number of the games in which that team would go into a round as favourites and for the the 50:50 games that I predicted, I took the lowest value assuming the worst outcome overall of all 50:50 games. So if there was one 50:50 game, I would assign the team 0 wins, two 50:50 games, one win and so on. This is the rationale in which I have arrived at my guesstimate.

"it's not 100% or 0% that anyone will beat anyone thus to just count "predicted wins" is a fool's way of betting". Yes it is and exactly where did I say this?

For the record, I am not a fan of outright/future markets and did not place any bets, I posted the article about those markets with the aim to generate discussion about the upcoming season, even though it is some time away and as I have mentioned earlier a lot can happen between now and when the season commences.

I would appreciate if you disagree with me or anyone else for that matter that you consider taking a civilized approach in your response, especially to new posters that come on board this year as I hope this year we have and encourage more posters to post their thoughts or opinions. By creating a learning and helpful environment for all we can all hopefully have greater punting success and some fun along the way.

 

[Lensen]

If you consider that uncivilized then that's a very sensitive outlook to have. I'd also suggest it's a better way to look at futures markets than apportioning wins based on being large favs or being 50/50 games

But I don't see this ending well and am feeling a bit

So I will leave this be. Good luck

 

[Eugenio94]

Carlton will surprise a few. Daisy Kruezer and Judd all training injury free. Some fresh young blood primed to start as acquired through trade period and a solid draft with the best mature age player of the draft (Blakey) and best value pick (Clem smith- yeh I'll call it now).
Compare that to last season with a lot of post season operations. This years list is fitter. Also addressed some issues with the forward line with new acquisitions but menzel is another year older and as I said Kruezer is fit. With the purportedly easier draw we may surprise a few

 

[GROTTO]

Carlton will surprise a few. Daisy Kruezer and Judd all training injury free. Some fresh young blood primed to start as acquired through trade period and a solid draft with the best mature age player of the draft (Blakey) and best value pick (Clem smith- yeh I'll call it now).
Compare that to last season with a lot of post season operations. This years list is fitter. Also addressed some issues with the forward line with new acquisitions but menzel is another year older and as I said Kruezer is fit. With the purportedly easier draw we may surprise a few

Welcome to the forum.

But does what you have said outweigh the loss of Heath Scotland, Jarrad Waite, Mitch Robinson, Brock McLean and Jeff Garlett?

 

[GROTTO]

Makes for some excellent early round value though!

Even the books seem to forget that the best predictor of success this season is success last season.

Plus books weigh up a Clubs ins and outs over the preseason when they set odds this early before a season.

 

[Anzac16]

Welcome to the forum.

But does what you have said outweigh the loss of Heath Scotland, Jarrad Waite, Mitch Robinson, Brock McLean and Jeff Garlett?

Honestly with those outs I feel that our ins are going to make our team better than what it was last year. Heath Scotland hardly played at all last year so his loss, whilst sad, is mostly irrelevant. Waite is a loss, as you said he has been in our Top 3 for Goals over the last 3 years. But at this stage of his career and given where our team is at I would rather have Henderson as a permanent FF and have Casboult, Kreuzer, Jones and Watson floating around the KPF spots. Robinson always gave 110% week out, but his omission lets a young kid in someone like Cripps or Holman get more game time. McLean had a good game here and there but never was that good for us in the long run. Again, having Cripps or Bell play in that role will benefit us a lot more. Garlett was so out of form last year it wasn't even funny. Throw in his personal matters and it was a good call to move him on. Think he will be get back to some better footy at the Demons.

If you look at the new players to the club over the last 2 off-seasons, there is plenty of talent there to cover the losses of the aforementioned + Betts. Cripps, Jones, Docherty, Tutt, Whiley, Everitt, Thomas and Sheenan should all be around our best 22 over this year. On top of that the development of Menzel, Buckley and Rowe last year into best 22 players helps us out a lot.

Like I've said in previous posts, we have the potential to be around the 8 this year, but we would need to start being more consistent with our performances. With these new(ish) additions to our team, we should definitely have at the very least 7-9 wins this year.

 

[GROTTO]

Like I've said in previous posts, we have the potential to be around the 8 this year, but we would need to start being more consistent with our performances. With these new(ish) additions to our team, we should definitely have at the very least 7-9 wins this year.

Potential to make the 8, yes I do agree with that. There is probably about only 3 Clubs you would rule out to make the 8 without any worry.

Saints, Dogs and Demons. There is just too much better competition from teams positioned 6-12 from 2014 that are better over the course of a season than those three listed.

 

[Anzac16]

Potential to make the 8, yes I do agree with that. There is probably about only 3 Clubs you would rule out to make the 8 without any worry.

Saints, Dogs and Demons. There is just too much better competition from teams positioned 6-12 from 2014 that are better over the course of a season than those three listed.

Yep. This is why I see Carlton finishing around 8-12th this year. Would be surprised to see us push up around the Top 8, but just have the feeling that a couple of the other teams in that 6-12 range might have better chances. If we can go out and finish off those games against Geelong and Fremantle last year with wins, add in at least 1 more win from the losses we had against Melbourne and GWS; we could end up around 11 win mark. Think 12 will be the pass mark again this year for finals though.

 

[GROTTO]

If we can go out and finish off those games against Geelong and Fremantle last year with wins, add in at least 1 more win from the losses we had against Melbourne and GWS; we could end up around 11 win mark. Think 12 will be the pass mark again this year for finals though.

But do you think this balances itself out over a season? You robbed I mean beat us ie Crows just and also the Eagles too.

I do agree with you against Melbourne and GWS though. I cant see teams falling unexpectedly to Melbourne this year as they will be a lot more aware of them and Roos style of play to be caught off guard.

 

[Anzac16]

But do you think this balances itself out over a season? You robbed I mean beat us ie Crows just and also the Eagles too.

I do agree with you against Melbourne and GWS though. I cant see teams falling unexpectedly to Melbourne this year as they will be a lot more aware of them and Roos style of play to be caught off guard.

It hopefully will. It's hard to say with us. We will be very unpredictable this I think. Unless there is crazy good value in bets involving Carlton games I will be staying away from them early in the year.

 

[GROTTO]

It hopefully will. It's hard to say with us. We will be very unpredictable this I think. Unless there is crazy good value in bets involving Carlton games I will be staying away from them early in the year.

Well as you and Chism highlighted that your "Victorian showdowns" like with Tigers, Dons and Pies are a lot closer and even affairs which may lead to value bets, I cant see you guys going in as favorites in any of those games. Did you go in as favourites in R1 2014?

You guys are at $2.45 for R1

 

[Anzac16]

Well as you and Chism highlighted that your "Victorian showdowns" like with Tigers, Dons and Pies are a lot closer and even affairs which may lead to value bets, I cant see you guys going in as favorites in any of those games. Did you go in as favourites in R1 2014?

You guys are at $2.45 for R1

I think Carlton will be value bets in these games assuming little to no injuries to us or them. May not be amazing odds, but value bets for sure.

Looking back at last year we were favourites last years R1 against Port @$1.67.

Really good spreadsheet here if anyone wants past results and odds - http://www.aussportsbetting.com/data/historical-afl-results-and-odds-data/

 

[GROTTO]

I think Carlton will be value bets in these games assuming little to no injuries to us or them. May not be amazing odds, but value bets for sure.

Looking back at last year we were favourites last years R1 against Port @$1.67.

Really good spreadsheet here if anyone wants past results and odds - http://www.aussportsbetting.com/data/historical-afl-results-and-odds-data/

Ahhh sorry my bad, I thought you played the Tigers in R1 hence the question about going in as favs.

 

[10571z]

I wouldn't write Carlton off due to the Malthouse factor.. he took the pies from 2nd last to 9th then to a GF.

 

[GROTTO]

I wouldn't write Carlton off due to the Malthouse factor.. he took the pies from 2nd last to 9th then to a GF.

What is the Malthouse factor?

 

[Eugenio94]

Welcome to the forum.

But does what you have said outweigh the loss of Heath Scotland, Jarrad Waite, Mitch Robinson, Brock McLean and Jeff Garlett?

Dead weight.

 

[banana_bus]

Dead Waite.

EFA