Analysis Sydney's depth - an analysis

[bedford]

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[Leg End]

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Sorry, wasn't directing " cheap shots" at you - just generally at those wanting to rip into players rather than move on

 

[swansfan51]

With the squad finalised for 2015 I have revisited this with a bit of a different spin this time, taking positions into consideration.

As always, remember that we need 35 players, plus 1 that will be injured all season and not able to play. I have used Johnson as that player for this analysis. The list is provided with no judgment or comments, so I'm interested to hear what people think.

B: Smith, T Richards, Rampe
HB: Shaw, Grundy, McVeigh
C: Hannebery, K Jack, Jetta
HF: Parker, Franklin, Cunningham
F: McGlynn, Tippett, Goodes
R: Pyke, Kennedy, Mitchell

Int: Reid, Rohan, Laidler, Bird

Who I've nominally put in the best 22 isn't relevant to the analysis. Anyway the only contentious calls are likely Cunningham over Lloyd and Laidler over someone who isn't Laidler.

Key position players: X Richards, Aliir, Davis, McLaren, Melican

Ruckmen: Nankervis, Naismith, Derickx

Others: Heeney, Towers, Lloyd, Jones, Newman, B Jack, Robinson, Perris, Hewett, Hiscox, Foote, Marsh, Rose

From the above, my nominal 23rd-29th players: (balance of 3 KPP and ruckmen, 4 Others)
Jake Lloyd
Isaac Heeney
Dean Towers
Zak Jones
Xavier Richards
Toby Nankervis
Tom Derickx

Things to remember:

The 23rd-29th players you select are vital, as at least 3-4 will have to play in each match.
The 29th-35th players will play <5 games each.
The 37th-44th players are completely irrelevant.

With all that in mind: who are your top 29, are you confident in the depth and balance, which 6 players from 29-35 will get a handful of games?

 

[GotTheGoodes]

I really like this thread swansfan51 and reckon you've pretty much nailed it.

As an example of the complexity of team selection I'll just try to focus on 2 positions. You've got them listed as Shaw & Laidler above.

I think this is a perfect horses-for-courses / match-to-match / opponent-to-opponent proposition. Changing it up each week between Reid/Shaw/Rohan/Jones/Laidler/Xav depending on what suits.

Speed and aggression we go Jones/Rohan
Solid and balanced we go Laidler/Shaw
etc etc

I think we can use both Reid & Rohan to add some additional tactical flexibility (can both play fwd/def). Against the minnows we can push Xav & Jones into more critical positions to help develop them a bit.

So many ways to go, and that's only with 1-2 positions on the field. Imagine the headaches when we're trying to push some game time into the Heeneys, Towers, Jones and Lloyds of this world.

 

[bungee]

With the squad finalised for 2015 I have revisited this with a bit of a different spin this time, taking positions into consideration.

As always, remember that we need 35 players, plus 1 that will be injured all season and not able to play. I have used Johnson as that player for this analysis. The list is provided with no judgment or comments, so I'm interested to hear what people think.

B: Smith, T Richards, Rampe
HB: Shaw, Grundy, McVeigh
C: Hannebery, K Jack, Jetta
HF: Parker, Franklin, Cunningham
F: McGlynn, Tippett, Goodes
R: Pyke, Kennedy, Mitchell

Int: Reid, Rohan, Laidler, Bird

Who I've nominally put in the best 22 isn't relevant to the analysis. Anyway the only contentious calls are likely Cunningham over Lloyd and Laidler over someone who isn't Laidler.

Key position players: X Richards, Aliir, Davis, McLaren, Melican

Ruckmen: Nankervis, Naismith, Derickx

Others: Heeney, Towers, Lloyd, Jones, Newman, B Jack, Robinson, Perris, Hewett, Hiscox, Foote, Marsh, Rose

From the above, my nominal 23rd-29th players: (balance of 3 KPP and ruckmen, 4 Others)
Jake Lloyd
Isaac Heeney
Dean Towers
Zak Jones
Xavier Richards
Toby Nankervis
Tom Derickx

Things to remember:

The 23rd-29th players you select are vital, as at least 3-4 will have to play in each match.
The 29th-35th players will play <5 games each.
The 37th-44th players are completely irrelevant.

With all that in mind: who are your top 29, are you confident in the depth and balance, which 6 players from 29-35 will get a handful of games?

Good list. How ready are Nankervis and Xav ? They're the only question marks I see in our depth players otherwise we're pretty solid.

Keeping in mind players who can swing (i.e., Reid, Rohan) I'd also add that Shaw has shown in the past that he's a pretty handy small forward. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's used forward sometimes. His role in the backline is also one of general leadership so it depends to some extent on players like Ladler, Jones, Rohan and Reid stepping up and taking on some of that responsibility. Rohan concerns me there as he doesn't seem to me to have the confidence to lead from the back. He plays his own game well (most times) but to lead while under siege is another step. Shaw & Richards tend to be the generals back there. Mind you, having Captain Pointy playing back might help.

 

[The King!]

My concern is that we are gambling on the players in 23-29 realising potential rather than having enough proven reliable talent there, especially when you compare to some of our rivals

 

[RUNVS]

Good list. How ready are Nankervis and Xav ? They're the only question marks I see in our depth players otherwise we're pretty solid.

Keeping in mind players who can swing (i.e., Reid, Rohan) I'd also add that Shaw has shown in the past that he's a pretty handy small forward. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's used forward sometimes. His role in the backline is also one of general leadership so it depends to some extent on players like Ladler, Jones, Rohan and Reid stepping up and taking on some of that responsibility. Rohan concerns me there as he doesn't seem to me to have the confidence to lead from the back. He plays his own game well (most times) but to lead while under siege is another step. Shaw & Richards tend to be the generals back there. Mind you, having Captain Pointy playing back might help.

My mind went to the wrong place when I read that.

 

[bungee]

My mind went to the wrong place when I read that.

I think I've been to the same web site.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

My concern is that we are gambling on the players in 23-29 realising potential rather than having enough proven reliable talent there, especially when you compare to some of our rivals

Nobody would of thought Lloyd, Cunningham would play 19-20 games and lineup in their first GF

Sometimes good can come out throwing players in the deepend sure they are unproven but at some point every player is unproven even number 1 draft picks

 

[nottenthagain]

My mind went to the wrong place when I read that.

Golf??

 

[swansfan51]

Going one step further now, and comparing our depth to our competitors. I've used opposition boards as the best 22 source.

Our 23rd-29th players:
Jake Lloyd
Isaac Heeney
Dean Towers
Zak Jones
Xavier Richards
Toby Nankervis
Tom Derickx

Norf's 23rd-29th players:
Leigh Adams
Aaron Mullett
Ben Jacobs
Ryan Bastinac
Ben Brown
Michael Firrito
Joel Tippett

Hawthorn's 23rd-29th players:
Billy Hartung
Jed Anderson
Alex Woodward
Brendan Whitecross
Matthew Spangher
Ryan Schoenmakers
Jon Ceglar

Fremantle's 23rd-29th players:
Garrick Ibbotson
Colin Sylvia
Matt De Boer
Nick Suban
Zac Clarke
Alex Silvagni
Jon Griffin

Port's 23rd-29th players:
Aaron Young
Andrew Moore
Nathan Krakouer
Kane Mitchell
Paul Stewart
Jarrad Redden
Cam O'Shea

 

[tenderwarrior]

How do you see Robinson developing this year? Could he make it as a running half back? I don't know much about him, but his stats have been fantastic as a rookie, and now he is upgraded he must be a chance to play some games in 2015?

 

[hairy biker]

Whilst in terms of proven depth we may be light on in comparison to other clubs, it's an inevitable consequence of our decision to chase high cost players in Tippett and Franklin and the age profile (and associated remuneration) of our list.

I think we would have lost some players, irrespective of Kurt/Buddy.
Top players that they were for us I believe it would have irresponsible to match the reported offers Mumford and Mal received.

Other players such as Everitt, Spangher and White were say 18-26 list players.
And whilst we probably got unders in trades for players we lost it was inevitable due to other clubs being aware of our need to free up cap space.

By spending on Tippett/Franklin it also means we are limited in our ability to recruit other best 22 players.
So if no Franklin we probably would have had cap space to bring in say both Ryder and Patfull.

The club made a decision to chase premierships in the short term and hope that we could do so with more high end talent and less depth. Other than our abject failure on GF day I think at this stage it was the right decision. Longer term the jury is still out.

 

[Jack Lord]

Concerned about depth this year, notably in our back half.

Reckon Shaw is past it. No Mal. No ready recruits as well all know. How do you guys see us holding up down back this year? And do we expect Reid to be playing a full time role down there?

 

[S120]

I predict Reid will begin the year playing a bit of both (primarily as a forward) but will end the season as a permanent defender.

Otherwise, our depth in the back line I think is OK. Ted, Reg, Rampe, Smith, Shaw, Rohan, McVeigh, Laidler, Jones, Reid are a pretty solid group of defenders from which we can assemble a good unit. We'll likely need some contribution from Xavier Richards, Nic Newman (a ready made rebounder to me).

So the depth isn't really what I'm concerned about when it comes to defenders but replacing the very high and consistent output within our system that Malceski provided is what vexes me. His rebounding and ball use obviously but in around 2012 he finally worked out how to throw his body around effectively. His tackling improved strongly, he ran straight through the ball when it was there to be won and he threw himself at any third man up situation to kill a contest. It became an underrated part of his game to me. That combination of qualities will be very difficult to find in one player.

 

[Jack Lord]

Ted didn't have his best year last year. Shaw's getting a bit long in the tooth. No Mal. Worried how we'll stand up against teams like the Hawks and Port to be honest. Need guys like Jones to come good. Seriously can't afford too many injuries down there this year.

If there was one area of the ground we needed to focus on for a good off-season recruit or two it was down back.

 

[S120]

Ted didn't have his best year last year. Shaw's getting a bit long in the tooth. No Mal. Worried how we'll stand up against teams like the Hawks and Port to be honest. Need guys like Jones to come good. Seriously can't afford too many injuries down there this year.

If there was one area of the ground we needed to focus on for a good off-season recruit or two it was down back.

Well the good off-season recruit thing was kinda scuppered by the AFL so our options were limited.

While all you say is true, we still had the most stingy defence in the AFL (I think, someone can correct me). I don't think Shaw or Ted will fall off a cliff in terms of production. They were "long in the tooth" last year and we still had a very good defence with them. The only really marked difference to me will be the absence of Malceski, a truly top quality defender.

I think we'll find at least one good player amongst X.Richards, Jones and Newman. I like each one of them from what I've seen in seniors, reserves and highlights (a spotty sample size admittedly).

Tangentially, I think Laidler's 2014 season has been underrated. The most memorable thing about it was Puopolo burning him at the MCG but leaving that aside, I thought he had a very consistent year. He was very unlucky to not be in the side for the finals. We won't be let down if we need to call on him.

 

[Jack Lord]

Think you're right about Laidler. Hope you're right about X.Richards, Jones and Newman. You'll no doubt recall how AJ became entrenched in the team almost overnight. Would be great to have a similar insert this year.

 

[Punts]

Mals intercepting ( reading of the play ) will be missed just as much as his rebound but time for someone else to step up

 

[Wolftone]

Mals intercepting ( reading of the play ) will be missed just as much as his rebound but time for someone else to step up

We need Rohan to play on the talls and Rampe to be that third man up until Sam goes back. He did a lot of third man up last season and is a very good spoiler, Dane. I don't think we are really as deficient as people are making out. Longmire pointed out in his preseason review that Sam had been playing a defensive role in training. He also pointed out that he was really impressed with Lewis Melican. Newman is just on the recovery path from an op but should be in full training now & somehow managed a mention. Zac is apparently training the house down and Longmire praised his hardness and doggedness. I am not worried about the defence. I am worried about the mids winning the contested ball and getting first use.

 

[swansfan51]

I thought I'd revisit this to see how we are tracking after 15 games. Remember that the average over our past 7 years has been: 35 players used, 8 play every game, 5 fringe battlers play a game or two.

30 players used
7 have played all 15 games
9 have played 14 games
3 have played 13 games

So we are tracking about average in terms of injuries and player unavailability, meaning our depth hasn't been tested any more than you would expect. Unless 5 fresh players are used over the next couple of months, we will have had one of our best ever seasons for stability.

 

[The King!]

I thought I'd revisit this to see how we are tracking after 15 games. Remember that the average over our past 7 years has been: 35 players used, 8 play every game, 5 fringe battlers play a game or two.

30 players used
7 have played all 15 games
9 have played 14 games
3 have played 13 games

So we are tracking about average in terms of injuries and player unavailability, meaning our depth hasn't been tested any more than you would expect. Unless 5 fresh players are used over the next couple of months, we will have had one of our best ever seasons for stability.

If you look at who the next 5 yet to play 2015 players would be too its pretty ugly potentially

Discount aj of course

Naismith if fit i suggest
Marsh seems to get sub a lot
Hiscox
Hewitt?
Davis?
Xr?


Worrying

 

[swansfan51]

Post season analysis

We used 32 players for the season, this was the equal least in the league. This compares favourably with previous seasons, our best was 2012 where we used 31 players for the year.

Stability was good. We had 5 players play all matches (the lowest in the past decade), 2 missed 1 match, 6 missed 2 matches. Overall we had 17 players who played 20 or more matches. That was the core group for the year. 5 players played 5 games or less - this happens every season.

I'll do a full lookahead after the trade period, but things are going to look very interesting once Shaw, Goodes and Jetta drop out of the figures.

 

[Cadsky]

We are goingvto be a very young team once those 3 are gone. And again next year when Pyke, Richards, McGlynn all leave.

 

[Millky95]

We are goingvto be a very young team once those 3 are gone. And again next year when Pyke, Richards, McGlynn all leave.

Doubt two of them will be playing much mext year