Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Hawthorngoatie]

Hi again Knightmare.

I wonder if I could rather impudent and ask for a similar assessment on a few other players? I think they will be available in my draft and I'm curious as to how you rank them against the others you mentioned:

Wigg
Lonie
Lamb
Whiley
Evans

Cheers

Rowan

 

[Knightmare]

Hi again Knightmare.

I wonder if I could rather impudent and ask for a similar assessment on a few other players? I think they will be available in my draft and I'm curious as to how you rank them against the others you mentioned:

Wigg
Lonie
Lamb
Whiley
Evans

Cheers

Rowan

Wigg may debut this year and could average 50. he has a career upside of 75-85. (probability of an AFL career 40%)
Lonie I'd tip to play 10 games this year at a 50 average. he has a career upside of 75-85. (probability of an AFL career 70%)
Lamb I consider unlikely to debut in 2015. he has a career upside of 70-80. (probability of an AFL career 20%)
Mark Whiley (ex GWS I assume you're asking about?). I think with Carlton he can play 10-15 games at a 75ppg average with a career upside of 100ppg (assuming he isn't used as a lockdown mid and gets released as per Anthony Miles at Richmond which is my best bet with Malthouse historically not using pure taggers), probability of an AFL career I'd have around 75%.
By Evans I'm assuming you're asking about Billy Evans? I can't see him debuting this year in that now suddenly loaded Brisbane midfield. His career upside I see as around 90-100 if things go right but probability of an AFL career I'd have around 25% and deem challenging on that Brisbane team, with that midfield only going to get better with Keays another gun midfielder in addition to what they already have who he will have to compete against from 2016.

 

[Hawthorngoatie]

Thanks again, legend!

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Knightmare.

As you'll be pretty busy this year, who'll take your mantle as busiest BF user in terms of Phantom Drafts?

Also, of the Collingwood draftees from last year, who do you see as their first debutant for this year?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare.

As you'll be pretty busy this year, who'll take your mantle as busiest BF user in terms of Phantom Drafts?

Also, of the Collingwood draftees from last year, who do you see as their first debutant for this year?

I'll still be on bigfooty this coming season but how involved I will be I do not yet know as my plans for the year have not been completely confirmed.

I go bigger and better every year anyway so that will either be on a website or bigfooty. Regardless I'll be available to engage fans and to answer the usual questions.

Regarding the Pies new recruits I'm assuming you're putting a fantasy football slant onto the question and you're looking for some fantasy football cheapies.
My guy to watch of Collingwood's first years is Brayden Maynard. Those defenders this year that are worth picking are so hard to find but if/when he gets games giddy-up. Maynard could be good for 15 games if Collingwood have a few injuries down back like last year when Langdon received senior opportunities, and Scharenberg is already one down until he gets back from the ACL and Maxwell has retired so the possibility is definitely there for Maynard if he has a strong preseason and excels during the NAB Cup, but in saying that he will hardly be gifted games with a long list of options he'll have to earn it by outperforming the others (many of whom were injured for much of last year such as the lesser known Oxley and Sinclair) so just wait and see what happens with him. His scoring won't be Langdon good, he isn't as extremely high production and won't be as much of an intercepter but none the less he will still win some ball back there and be used at times as a rebounder with his footskills from the back half with Collingwood having so few reliable kicks down back.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

I'll still be on bigfooty this coming season but how involved I will be I do not yet know as my plans for the year have not been completely confirmed.

I go bigger and better every year anyway so that will either be on a website or bigfooty. Regardless I'll be available to engage fans and to answer the usual questions.

Regarding the Pies new recruits I'm assuming you're putting a fantasy football slant onto the question and you're looking for some fantasy football cheapies.
My guy to watch of Collingwood's first years is Brayden Maynard. Those defenders this year that are worth picking are so hard to find but if/when he gets games giddy-up. Maynard could be good for 15 games if Collingwood have a few injuries down back like last year when Langdon received senior opportunities, and Scharenberg is already one down until he gets back from the ACL and Maxwell has retired so the possibility is definitely there for Maynard if he has a strong preseason and excels during the NAB Cup, but in saying that he will hardly be gifted games with a long list of options he'll have to earn it by outperforming the others (many of whom were injured for much of last year such as the lesser known Oxley and Sinclair) so just wait and see what happens with him. His scoring won't be Langdon good, he isn't as extremely high production and won't be as much of an intercepter but none the less he will still win some ball back there and be used at times as a rebounder with his footskills from the back half with Collingwood having so few reliable kicks down back.

Don't do Fantasy Football as I don't understand it or get it.

Yeah was thinking Maynard then De Goey then Moore then Goodyear.

Cheers.

P.s. looking forward to both Langford and Laverde.

 

[Knightmare]

Don't do Fantasy Football as I don't understand it or get it.

Yeah was thinking Maynard then De Goey then Moore then Goodyear.

Cheers.

P.s. looking forward to both Langford and Laverde.

If it's just generally guys debuting then De Goey and Maynard are the two most likely in season one to see game time. Both have AFL bodies and pretty good skillsets but lack a degree of endurance at this stage which will likely need to improve for them to become regulars unless they play deep forward and back at AFL level from the get go which is my hope anyway.

Moore as a tall and being played back this season where Collingwood have a surplus of talls will struggle to debut in season one I imagine, which is unfortunate as those talls who play earlier often go better.

Goodyear, Manteit and probably Abbott will have a hard time breaking into the senior team, but you never say never.

Langford and Laverde can really be good and for them with the ASADA stuff it will work well for them as individuals in the sense that they will get senior AFL opportunities earlier than they otherwise would and likely as a result fast-track their development. And if those guys develop, the sky is the limit because they both are among the most talented players from last years draft.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

If it's just generally guys debuting then De Goey and Maynard are the two most likely in season one to see game time. Both have AFL bodies and pretty good skillsets but lack a degree of endurance at this stage which will likely need to improve for them to become regulars unless they play deep forward and back at AFL level from the get go which is my hope anyway.

Moore as a tall and being played back this season where Collingwood have a surplus of talls will struggle to debut in season one I imagine, which is unfortunate as those talls who play earlier often go better.

Goodyear, Manteit and probably Abbott will have a hard time breaking into the senior team, but you never say never.

Langford and Laverde can really be good and for them with the ASADA stuff it will work well for them as individuals in the sense that they will get senior AFL opportunities earlier than they otherwise would and likely as a result fast-track their development. And if those guys develop, the sky is the limit because they both are among the most talented players from last years draft.

Cheers for that Knightmare.

I think all clubs will be seeing at least 1 draftee from last year debuting this year.

Also, with the draft restrictions for Essendon elapsing last year, I'd expect them to attack this year's draft and make 2015 the year that some players are put on notice.

FWIW these are the players I think will need to look behind their shoulders:

Licka.
Pears.
Kavanagh.
O'Brien.
Gwilt.
Watson (Heppell's gunning for his captaincy.)
Melksham.
Dempsey.
Stanton.
Jerrett.

 

[McCraeBF]

Bulldogs will have 3 get a game this year.

Daniel
Bailey Dale
Cordy (late)

 

[Turbocat]

Knightmare , our board has some with contacts with in the club and we keep getting feedback that Gore has turned heads. He may just be a contender for a game or two especially with Linc McCarthy gone again. Lots of other pressing their case to though. What I have seen , he has a nice defensive edge to his game , quite good speed , a strong body and his foot skill look better than just a inside work horse.
Why did he slip so late? Could be some embarrassed recruiters if he lives up to the vibe.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare , our board has some with contacts with in the club and we keep getting feedback that Gore has turned heads. He may just be a contender for a game or two especially with Linc McCarthy gone again. Lots of other pressing their case to though. What I have seen , he has a nice defensive edge to his game , quite good speed , a strong body and his foot skill look better than just a inside work horse.
Why did he slip so late? Could be some embarrassed recruiters if he lives up to the vibe.

Great to hear that Gore is impressing! He was for me anyway always a bargain given where he was picked as indicated by my power rankings and my selection of Gore in the bigfooty phantom draft.

The key for me with Gore is that he has played and produced to a high level at SANFL League level. When you're doing that you often can play at AFL level early. Gore has the size and strength but then contested ball winning ability and has some power on that kick of his, can take some grabs overhead and at times play forward. He isn't an amazing runner but he does in traffic have a small burst of speed he can use in game. So there is more than enough talent there.

I hope Gore shows AFL clubs who passed on him that they made a mistake not picking him, I certainly believe he can so I look forward to him hopefully proving me right.

It seems a trend every year that clubs overlook mids needing/wanting other types more, and every year there are midfield bargains like Gore who late/rookie draft have really produced as juniors and clubs whether it's pace/footskills/versatility just don't think they've got it. Sloane, L.Parker, Rockliff are among the many examples of this and it happens most years.

Why clubs passed on Gore I cannot comment, for me personally he ticks the boxes of footskills/versatility and pace, while having those other elements. His weaker area is his running and ability to do damage on the outside relatively and he isn't someone who runs quickly end to end or in transition but not everyone can do everything and endurance can and typically does with work improve in clubland so I'm not particularly concerned about him. For me it's just about continuing to improve and continuing to put the work in.

 

[Knightmare]

Bulldogs will have 3 get a game this year.

Daniel
Bailey Dale
Cordy (late)

Don't sleep on Toby McLean. He has some Jamie Elliott to him as a small marking forward. Haven't heard any preseason updates but as a small forward he is someone as soon as round 1 I'd have in the mix for selection.

Dale and Cordy I'm not as high on, but I've been wrong before.

Cheers for that Knightmare.

I think all clubs will be seeing at least 1 draftee from last year debuting this year.

Also, with the draft restrictions for Essendon elapsing last year, I'd expect them to attack this year's draft and make 2015 the year that some players are put on notice.

FWIW these are the players I think will need to look behind their shoulders:

Licka.
Pears.
Kavanagh.
O'Brien.
Gwilt.
Watson (Heppell's gunning for his captaincy.)
Melksham.
Dempsey.
Stanton.
Jerrett.

Essendon's end of season list changes will be interesting. Lots of veterans on that list and some youngish types who were chosen high and have not fully come along as expected. Up to 1/3rd of the list will probably need to earn their position beyond next season and the list changes could well get up to 7-9 depending on how they look late season.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Hey mate, hows your website progressing? I would love to read your thoughts on this years draft crop. Cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey mate, hows your website progressing? I would love to read your thoughts on this years draft crop. Cheers.

Still no news yet but will post on here ASAP if/when it happens/looks likely to happen.

If it just doesn't seem likely to get off the ground by mid year (and I'll make the call earlier than that) I'll likely just post it on here again and go around again as per usual and just continue to improve the quality of the content as I do yearly.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

Knightmare , thoughts on Daniel Neilson? Plenty thought it was a reach for North but we needed a lock down defender. His youtube highlights are sensational but obviously don't tell the full story. Does he have any glaring weaknesses?

He's been very good in pre-season playing on Petrie. He has as a big body for his age, good closing speed and competes well. From the limited vision i've seen, it looks like his upside is Michael Jamison. With Grima and Hansen missing the start of the year, he could see gametime early. Do you think he could handle it? What am i missing with this kid?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare , thoughts on Daniel Neilson? Plenty thought it was a reach for North but we needed a lock down defender. His youtube highlights are sensational but obviously don't tell the full story. Does he have any glaring weaknesses?

He's been very good in pre-season playing on Petrie. He has as a big body for his age, good closing speed and competes well. From the limited vision i've seen, it looks like his upside is Michael Jamison. With Grima and Hansen missing the start of the year, he could see gametime early. Do you think he could handle it? What am i missing with this kid?

I generally do see pick 25 as too high for Nielson as someone more in the back end of the national draft I'd be more inclined personally to then consider.

Daniel Nielson can typically beat his direct opponent and play that role but he isn't rebounding. He is good at what he does but is limited to what he does. If he continues to get better at what he does (beat his direct opponent and stop them from having an influence) he can possibly carve out a niche and that can be enough.

The weakness for Nielson is he isn't a rebounder. He is a lock down only defender who doesn't find the footy. His footskills also are fairly poor so he isn't someone you generally want the ball in the hands of. On the positive side of the ledger he has terrific strength for an 18 year old and athletically is pretty reasonable also.

I don't see Nielson as a year one ready to play type. Talls almost never are ready to play in season one, even those talls who have gone on by position to among the best in the game. Season two, I'd reassess then, but for me a positive outcome would be that most weeks he beats his direct opponent at VFL level and basically takes what he did last year in the TAC Cup up to VFL level.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

I generally do see pick 25 as too high for Nielson as someone more in the back end of the national draft I'd be more inclined personally to then consider.

Daniel Nielson can typically beat his direct opponent and play that role but he isn't rebounding. He is good at what he does but is limited to what he does. If he continues to get better at what he does (beat his direct opponent and stop them from having an influence) he can possibly carve out a niche and that can be enough.

The weakness for Nielson is he isn't a rebounder. He is a lock down only defender who doesn't find the footy. His footskills also are fairly poor so he isn't someone you generally want the ball in the hands of. On the positive side of the ledger he has terrific strength for an 18 year old and athletically is pretty reasonable also.

I don't see Nielson as a year one ready to play type. Talls almost never are ready to play in season one, even those talls who have gone on by position to among the best in the game. Season two, I'd reassess then, but for me a positive outcome would be that most weeks he beats his direct opponent at VFL level and basically takes what he did last year in the TAC Cup up to VFL level.

From what you've described it seems like Prestigiacomo would be the comparable.

 

[Knightmare]

From what you've described it seems like Prestigiacomo would be the comparable.

Prestigiacomo would hardly be a poor outcome. The guy was a pick 10 overall in 1995 and played 233 games in his career. I expect North Melbourne would take that career outcome for Nielson.

For a current comparison I liken Nielson to Collingwood's Jack Frost. Not a rebounder or ball user. The difference is Nielson is more strongly built and Frost is the more athletic. But if Nielson can become roughly that level of key defender. That would be a good outcome in my view anyway.

You have to remember in each draft year. There might be 30-40 players who go on and have good AFL careers and among those will be a number of late/rookie picks. At pick 25 it's hardly a guaranteed star with not all picks in the 20s going on to have long term AFL careers, so it's not realistic to expect that much of Nielson with a long term AFL career as a role player in my view anyway a good outcome based on the type of game he plays.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

Prestigiacomo would hardly be a poor outcome. The guy was a pick 10 overall in 1995 and played 233 games in his career. I expect North Melbourne would take that career outcome for Nielson.

For a current comparison I liken Nielson to Collingwood's Jack Frost. Not a rebounder or ball user. The difference is Nielson is more strongly built and Frost is the more athletic. But if Nielson can become roughly that level of key defender. That would be a good outcome in my view anyway.

You have to remember in each draft year. There might be 30-40 players who go on and have good AFL careers and among those will be a number of late/rookie picks. At pick 25 it's hardly a guaranteed star with not all picks in the 20s going on to have long term AFL careers, so it's not realistic to expect that much of Nielson with a long term AFL career as a role player in my view anyway a good outcome based on the type of game he plays.

Yep, would be happy with a Presti type career out of Nielsen. Tks for your knowledge mate.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight: After some NAB games I wouldnt mind some thoughts on players you think will be DT relevant. Cockatoo & DeGoey are 2 that have surprised me... Thoughts on these 2 plus any other that have impressed post pre-season?

 

[Knightmare]

Knight: After some NAB games I wouldnt mind some thoughts on players you think will be DT relevant. Cockatoo & DeGoey are 2 that have surprised me... Thoughts on these 2 plus any other that have impressed post pre-season?

Jed Anderson did well for the Hawks. If he is named round 1 he could be an option through the midfield. Not a rookie but rookie priced I'm assuming. Teia Miles might be another one to watch as an improver over last year who found a bit of the ball in NAB 1.

De Goey looks like he'll play early and often for Collingwood. He'll be too pricey for DT as a pick 5 overall I would have though and his scoring won't be so strong that he would be a worthwhile selection. Can have a really good career and be one of Collingwood's very best over time, long term. Nathan Freeman as a rookie priced guy will be another worth watching and scoring will be just enough for a position on a bench if he is listed to play round 1.

Jackson Nelson may get games for West Coast with Beau Waters retired and is someone with a fairly advanced game as someone who can read it well down back. Assuming he is backline listed and cheap consider if listed early season.

Fields and Dick are two at Carlton to watch for given they are backline rookies. Neither impressed me greatly but they're two to consider. Ciaran Byrne was ok and might be a late season debutant to watch for later on if he gets an opportunity. Boekhorst who people will talk about as the only mature ager taken in the national draft and taken in the first round at that, I'm not mad on and his low numbers didn't surprise me as more an impact player than an accumulator, but if there are few other options and he gets games, then he could be a bench option.

Jack Lonie is the only guy from the Saints that comes to mind to have played. His numbers were unimpressive and worse even than anticipated. He may get opportunities given a lack of good options up forward but don't expect big scores.

Joel Hamling looked ok for the Dogs as a recycled player via Geelong. He looked like a potential fit alongside Talia as a key defender and the improved Dogs back half structure suited him. He isn't a star but again with the limited backline rookies, assuming he is eligible as a back he is another to consider.

Kane Lambert for Richmond is a must start on the field for me up forward or through the midfield. He is a productive mature ager and if he plays for Richmond early he can be a poor mans Anthony Miles which for DT is perfect. Richmond's other kids showed signs and none of them looked out of their depth, particularly to my surprised liked what Reece McKenzie in that second half offered looking better than Vickery who has been talked about as having the preseason of his life. I just other than Lambert don't see those other new recruits getting so much of a go as a team I to be honest with you have making the grand final with Port Adelaide this year. Todd Elton is another to watch, looking pretty good down back as a key defender, but he is more someone I imagine if/when injuries happen is more likely to get a shot and when he does play he isn't scoring a great deal.

Cam Ellis-Yolman from Adelaide is one to watch as an improver who showed some signs, this might be the year he breaks through so watch him over the next few NAB Cup games and make a decision on him over the coming weeks based on a sample of more games.

Mitch Hallahan for Gold Coast was impressive and has the opportunity to be a regular. No idea what he is priced but if cheap get on him if listed round 1 because he is a high production inside ball winner who has long been starved of opportunity and is AFL standard. Jarrod Garlett looked really good for Gold Coast and looked good enough to establish himself as a regular for Gold Coast. Just as a first round draft pick I imagine he'll be pricey, in saying that consider if other options unappealing. Touk Miller is another who can be a semi-regular and can find the footy, strongly consider for a bench spot. Adam Saad showed some signs, I'm not convinced he'll play often if at all given Gold Coast's strong back half but consider if listed.

Darcy Lang from Geelong should be cheap and through the midfield is someone who I think has a real chance to become a regular in a midfield that relatively struggles to win first possession, consider. Cockatoo scored higher than I anticipated but too pricey for my liking as a top 10 pick. He'll in that De Goey kind of way long term be a ripper but more impact player than fantasy player would be my comment as more someone capable of moderate as opposed to elite production even when established would be my best guess, though he'll have his monster games in time also. Gregson and Gore both held their own and showed signs as guys who this year/next year are ready to go when the opportunity presents and either/or/both if playing can score well for rookies and would be solid choices.

*Let me know if you want predicted averages/predicted number of games for any of these guys.

 

[RGpies]

If it's just generally guys debuting then De Goey and Maynard are the two most likely in season one to see game time. Both have AFL bodies and pretty good skillsets but lack a degree of endurance at this stage which will likely need to improve for them to become regulars unless they play deep forward and back at AFL level from the get go which is my hope anyway.

Moore as a tall and being played back this season where Collingwood have a surplus of talls will struggle to debut in season one I imagine, which is unfortunate as those talls who play earlier often go better.

Goodyear, Manteit and probably Abbott will have a hard time breaking into the senior team, but you never say never.

Langford and Laverde can really be good and for them with the ASADA stuff it will work well for them as individuals in the sense that they will get senior AFL opportunities earlier than they otherwise would and likely as a result fast-track their development. And if those guys develop, the sky is the limit because they both are among the most talented players from last years draft.

You have big wraps on de goeys future here knightmare. Do you like what you've seen and heard in the off season about him? There seems to be alot of hype around him after only 1 nab cup game. Because you had a few other preffered options before de goey. I wanted to see how connor blakely went tonight but not sure if he got any game time

 

[Knightmare]

You have big wraps on de goeys future here knightmare. Do you like what you've seen and heard in the off season about him? There seems to be alot of hype around him after only 1 nab cup game. Because you had a few other preffered options before de goey. I wanted to see how connor blakely went tonight but not sure if he got any game time

Going into the draft I didn't have any information about De Goey's character - and I generally don't unless the media share those particulars.

I personally really like everything I've heard about De Goey over the offseason from his initial interviews. He comes across as having a real hunger and that's what I want in a new recruit coming to my team, so great talent identification again by the Pies with De Goey and kudos for putting the stock into getting the personality profiling right. I liked Blakely at 30 and Reece McKenzie 48 (not knowing he'd be there at 75!) but give me the chance to make that pick 5 today, I'd be taking De Goey. Maybe a Langford or Laverde or someone else could be better, but with De Goey, I like the odds and other than if he gets hurt, he can be a best 3 on list quality player and a future captain, or if not then likely vice captain. His ceiling is just that high as such an extremely hard worker/hungry kid but then with his aggression on the field, overhead marking, tackling ability and skillset. He could well prove to be a slightly less productive, but something none the less like a Jimmy Bartel equivalent for Collingwood which obviously would be a terrific outcome.

Maynard and Manteit both I've also from an interview perspective (Moore is another but than goes without saying) been really impressed with in hearing what they have to say and hearing their reports from training. Both can be better than their draft positions and both be better than where I ranked them in my power rankings.

*Re. Blakely he went on only for the final quarter so only had the two touches and one mark. He just needs more playing time - which under Ross Lyon rarely for first years happens. I'm hoping he continues over the next NAB Cup games and hopefully more minutes on the field!

 

[RGpies]

Going into the draft I didn't have any information about De Goey's character - and I generally don't unless the media share those particulars.

I personally really like everything I've heard about De Goey over the offseason from his initial interviews. He comes across as having a real hunger and that's what I want in a new recruit coming to my team, so great talent identification again by the Pies with De Goey and kudos for putting the stock into getting the personality profiling right. I liked Blakely at 30 and Reece McKenzie 48 (not knowing he'd be there at 75!) but give me the chance to make that pick 5 today, I'd be taking De Goey. Maybe a Langford or Laverde or someone else could be better, but with De Goey, I like the odds and other than if he gets hurt, he can be a best 3 on list quality player and a future captain, or if not then likely vice captain. His ceiling is just that high as such an extremely hard worker/hungry kid but then with his aggression on the field, overhead marking, tackling ability and skillset. He could well prove to be a slightly less productive, but something none the less like a Jimmy Bartel equivalent for Collingwood which obviously would be a terrific outcome.

Maynard and Manteit both I've also from an interview perspective (Moore is another but than goes without saying) been really impressed with in hearing what they have to say and hearing their reports from training. Both can be better than their draft positions and both be better than where I ranked them in my power rankings.

*Re. Blakely he went on only for the final quarter so only had the two touches and one mark. He just needs more playing time - which under Ross Lyon rarely for first years happens. I'm hoping he continues over the next NAB Cup games and hopefully more minutes on the field!

Interesting that cal twomey early tip for rising star is de goey. So even outside the club he is being recognised. Although i think twomey was a big fan of de goey last year.

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting that cal twomey early tip for rising star is de goey. So even outside the club he is being recognised. Although i think twomey was a big fan of de goey last year.

Twomey picking De Goey for rising star eh?

I'm not convinced De Goey will have such a high level impact that he would be considered for the award, or at least among those top few. But then again at this time of the year predicting any end of year results for any awards or ladder positions is guesswork.

I don't hold any of those individual awards in particularly high regard and I could care less who wins but if I had to guess who wins the rising star I'd consider a few who have been in the system to be more likely. From Collingwood if anyone would be in the mix I like Broomhead's chances of taking out the award as someone I expect to have a big impact on winning and be a better 6-8 quality player on the Pies list in 2015, which is the type of impact assuming he plays 22 games or close that could be enough for him to take out the award.

Kayne Turner, Martin Gleeson, Jack Steele and Angus Brayshaw are among those other than Broomhead I can see as being in the mix for the award. But still early days and lots of footy to be played before we can do more than make educated guesses.