NBA Brownlow?

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Behaviourz2Outcomz
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Jul 15, 2002
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Hey guys. Been a while, years probably, since I've posted not the board, thought you might be interested in this though.

Having a decent amount of time on my hands this year, I decided how an MVP race would look if it was determined in the same way as we do the AFL Brownlow. As a result, I've spent/wasted a whole bunch of time allocating votes on a 3-2-1 basis for each regular season game with the results posted on the @HoopPerspective Twitter feed (shameless plug over).

Doing this mainly from looking at the box score, and articles about the games, I understand that it is far from a perfect process in regards to actually giving votes that match the reality of each game. Nonetheless, I was interested in seeing how voting this way would pan out rather than the way the MVP is determined by 'the vibe' when media vote on it, where performances from earlier in the season tend to get forgotten. Using this system, being the best player in any given game is the worth the same at the start of the year versus the end of the year, and also perhaps gives players performing well on a poor team a fighting chance. Certainly another limitation is that this is only one person's opinion.

Anyway, if you're interested in how the voting has gone so far, the current leaderboard is:

1. James Harden (109 votes)
2. John Wall (102)
3. Steph Curry (97)
4. Anthony Davis (87)
5. Chris Paul (83)
6. LeBron James (81)
7. Marc Gasol (77)
=9 R. Westbrook, L. Aldridge (73)
10. T. Lawson (70)

Obviously the big outlier in there is John Wall, who is probably not considered in the top 5 for the MVP race, but he is often in the best couple of players on the court, win or lose. Obviously James Harden has been absolute beast and a well deserved MVP favourite at this point. Also, as in the the Brownlow, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have probably stolen some votes from Steph, whereas Harden probably hasn't had that problem.

Anyway, though this might be a discussion starter, I'll post an update every now and then.
 
Fantastic effort, but it's pretty hard to give votes unless you watch every game (which is obviously not practical).

I've actually thought of how this would go before, but teams that have one star are going to have a huge advantage of teams that have a bunch. For instance during the mid 80s I'm sure MJ would have done better than a guy like Magic, even though Magic was winning the MVPs.
 

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Here are the current team leaderboards. Hopefully the teams are updated, the trade deadline threw things out a bit.

Atlanta
Jeff Teague 61
Paul Millsap 57
Al Horford 36
Kyle Korver 24
DeMarre Carroll 14
Dennis Schroder 6
Shelvin Mack 5
Mike Scott 4

Boston
Jared Sullinger 26
Isaiah Thomas 25
Avery Bradley 15
Tyler Zeller 14
Kelly Olynyk 13
Evan Turner 8
Marcus Thornton 5
Brandon Bass 4
Jae Crowder 1
Marcus Smart 1

Brooklyn

Brook Lopez 31
Deron Williams 28
Jarrett Jack 24
Joe Johnson 24
Miles Plumlee 18
Thaddeus Young 12
Mirza Teletovic 5
Alan Anderson 4
Bojan Bogdanovic 4

Charlotte
Kemba Walker 46
Al Jefferson 45
Mo Williams 19
Gerald Henderson 15
Brian Roberts 10
Lance Stephenson 9
Cody Zeller 5
Bismack Biyombo 4
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 3
P.J. Hairston 1

Chicago
Pau Gasol 69
Jimmy Butler 63
Derrick Rose 31
Joakim Noah 9
Taj Gibson 8
Nikola Mirotic 6
Aaron Brooks 5
Mike Dunleavy 4
Tony Snell 4

Cleveland
LeBron James 84
Kyrie Irving 54
Kevin Love 36
JR Smith 13
Timofey Mozgov 9
Iman Shumpert 7
Tristan Thompson 5
Mike Miller 3
Anderson Varejao 3

Dallas
Monta Ellis 58
Dirk Nowitzki 38
Chandler Parsons 31
Rajon Rondo 29
Tyson Chandler 27
Amare Stoudemire 11
JJ Barea 9
Devin Harris 6
Charlie Villanueva 4
Al-Farouq Aminu 2
Juan Calderon 1
Richard Jefferson 1

Denver
Ty Lawson 73
Kenneth Faried 15
Wilson Chandler 8
Jameer Nelson 4
Danilo Gallinari 3
Randy Foye 2
Jusuf Nurkic 2
Darrell Arthur 1

Detroit
Greg Monroe 38
Andre Drummond 36
Brandon Jennings 35
Reggie Jackson 30
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 12
Jodie Meeks 8
Kyle Singler 7
Caron Butler 5
Tayshaun Prince 2
Anthony Tolliver 1

Golden State
Stephen Curry 100
Klay Thompson 52
Draymond Green 20
Marreese Speights 14
Harrison Barnes 7
Andrew Bogut 4
Andre Iguodala 4
David Lee 2
Leandro Barbosa 1

Houston
James Harden 112
Dwight Howard 34
Josh Smith 17
Trevor Ariza 15
Donatas Motiejunas 11
Corey Brewer 9
Patrick Beverley 4
Terrence Jones 4
KJ McDaniels 3
Jason Terry 3

Indiana
Roy Hibbert 32
CJ Miles 21
David West 21
Ronald Stuckey 20
Donald Sloan 11
CJ Watson 8
George Hill 7
Chris Copeland 6
Luis Scola 5
Solomon Hill 4
Ian Mahinmi 2
AJ Price 2
Damjan Rudez 2

LA Clippers
Chris Paul 83
Blake Griffin 62
DeAndre Jordan 23
JJ Redick 18
Jamal Crawford 15
Matt Barnes 6
Austin Rivers 4

LA Lakers
Kobe Bryant 41
Carlos Boozer 19
Jeremy Lin 10
Nick Young 10
Jordan Hill 7
Ed Davis 5
Ronnie Price 5
Wayne Ellington 3
Tarik Black 2
Jordan Clarkson 2
Wesley Johnson 1
Ryan Kelly 1

Memphis
Marc Gasol 77
Zach Randolph 58
Mike Conley 43
Jeff Green 16
Courtney Lee 9
Jon Leuer 3
Beno Udrih 3
Nick Calathes 1
Vince Carter 1

Miami
Chris Bosh 49
Dwyane Wade 40
Goran Dragic 32
Mario Chalmers 27
Luol Deng 19
Hassan Whiteside 17
Shabbaz Napier 3
Tyler Johnson 3

Milwaukee
Michael Carter-Williams 38
Giannis Antetokounmpo 20
OJ Mayo 17
Khris Middleton 17
Jared Dudley 12
Jerryd Bayless 5
Zaza Pachulia 5
Larry Sanders 4
Kendall Marshall 3
John Henson 2
Ersan Ilyasova 2
Jabari Parker 1
Miles Plumlee 1

Minnesota
Kevin Martin 25
Andrew Wiggins 25
Shabbaz Muhammed 11
Gorgui Dieng 8
Ricky Rubio 8
Zach LaVine 7
Nikola Pekovic 6
Gary Neal 4
Kevin Garnett 2
Anthony Bennett 1

New Orleans
Anthony Davis 87
Tyreke Evans 46
Jrue Holiday 31
Eric Gordon 14
Ryan Anderson 11
Omer Asik 4
Alexis Ajinca 3

New York
Carmelo Anthony 60
Tim Hardaway 10
Jose Calderon 4
Langston Galloway 3
Quincy Acy 2
Jason Smith 2
Louis Amundson 1
Lance Thomas 1
Alexey Shved 1

Oklahoma City
Russell Westbrook 76
Kevin Durant 45
Serge Ibaka 26
DJ Augustin 18
Enes Kanter 11
Jeremy Lamb 6
Perry Jones 5
Dion Waiters 5
Steven Adams 3
Anthony Morrow 3
Mitch McGary 1
Nick Collison 1

Orlando
Nikola Vucevic 63
Victor Oladipo 33
Tobias Harris 29
Evan Fournier 7
Elfrid Payton 7
Kyle O'Quinn 2

Philadelphia
Tony Wroten 23
Robert Covington 18
Nerlins Noel 10
Hollis Thompson 7
Isiah Canaan 3
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute 1
Henry Sims 1

Phoenix
Brandon Knight 62
Eric Bledsoe 55
Markieff Morris 35
Gerald Green 14
Marcus Morris 9
PJ Tucker 3
Danny Granger 3
Brandan Wright 1
Shawne Williams 1

Portland
LaMarcus Aldridge 73
Damien Lillard 62
Wes Matthews 32
Arron Afflalo 23
Nicolas Batum 10
Chris Kaman 2
Robin Lopez 2
Joel Freeland 1

Sacramento
Demarcus Cousins 68
Rudy Gay 47
Darren Collison 28
Reggie Evans 3
Jason Thompson 3
Omri Casspi 2
Ben McLemore 2
Carl Landry 1

San Antonio
Tim Duncan 33
Tony Parker 29
Kawhi Leonard 27
Danny Green 26
Manu Ginobili 15
Marco Bellinelli 6
Boris Diaw 6
Cory Joseph 6
Austin Daye 4
Matt Bonner 3
Aron Baynes 2
Patty Mills 1
Tiago Splitter 1

Toronto
Kyle Lowry 63
DeMar DeRozan 31
Lou Williams 25
Jonas Valunciunas 16
Terrence Ross 10
Greivis Vasquez 8
James Johnson 6
Amir Johnson 3
Patrick Patterson 2

Utah
Gordon Hayward 55
Derrick Favors 39
Trey Burke 16
Alec Burks 7
Rudy Gobert 7
Trevor Booker 3
Joe Ingles 2
Dante Exum 1

Washington
John Wall 102
Bradley Beal 24
Paul Pierce 15
Marcin Gortat 13
Nene Hilario 10
Rasual Butler 8
Kris Humphries 5
Kevin Seraphin 3
Garrett Temple 3
Ramon Sessions 1
 
Interesting that Chandler is our 5th ranked player... I'd have him on par with Monta as our best this season for sure.
I think that's where the limitation really hits hardest.

Not that the MVP isn't already swayed that way but I think basing off box scores and recaps (that often start with "Player X has scored Y Points to lead his team victory") would exacerbate that even further than current MVP voting the bias towards the vote mostly being based on offense.

Huge effort though and interesting looking at the team-by-team results particularly.
 
Great effort mate, thanks.

Interesting that Chandler is our 5th ranked player... I'd have him on par with Monta as our best this season for sure.

Yeah I think this shows a limitation which is also seen in the Brownlow but exacerbated here due to the sheer number of games. Chandler is extremely consistent but just hasn't nudged him way into the top 3 players each game (IMO obviously) often enough. These players are disadvantaged in this system, just like the guy who does a job every week will poll far better in his club best-and-fairest.

In a perfect world, there would be correspondents watching each game to compile votes from someone who actually saw all the twists and turn, big moments, defensive play etc.
 
Rankings after today's games. Hard to see anyone ranked after Westbrook having a chance, even then it would have to be a huge comeback.

LeaderboardMarch2.PNG

#spreadsheet
 

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This system suits healthy players too. If you're injured, you cant poll hence why Westbrook is so far down despite having an MVP caliber season.

Out of the many negatives of this system, I'm not sure that is one. Why should James Harden lose out because he's healthy?
 
Out of the many negatives of this system, I'm not sure that is one. Why should James Harden lose out because he's healthy?

Nice work mate. I remember either Bill Simmons or Zach Lowe discussing this exact method in one of their Grantland podcasts a couple of months ago. It might be worth sharing this with them, if they mention it you might get a bit more exposure.
 
Nice work mate. I remember either Bill Simmons or Zach Lowe discussing this exact method in one of their Grantland podcasts a couple of months ago. It might be worth sharing this with them, if they mention it you might get a bit more exposure.

Really? Very interesting... I emailed Simmons about it, maybe a couple of months ago, so I wonder whether or not that preceded the podcast. I tend to listen to all of the Lowe spots on the BS Report but I can't recall hearing about this. Will look into it. Cheers.
 
Really? Very interesting... I emailed Simmons about it, maybe a couple of months ago, so I wonder whether or not that preceded the podcast. I tend to listen to all of the Lowe spots on the BS Report but I can't recall hearing about this. Will look into it. Cheers.

If I recall correctly there was a direct reference made to Australian football in the podcast so it just may have been driven by your email! Sorry I cant remember exactly where or when it was said. I am pretty sure it was during a podcast but it also could even have been in one of Simmons' mailbag columns.
 
If I recall correctly there was a direct reference made to Australian football in the podcast so it just may have been driven by your email! Sorry I cant remember exactly where or when it was said. I am pretty sure it was during a podcast but it also could even have been in one of Simmons' mailbag columns.

Found the mailbag you're talking about. Wasn't me, but interesting nonetheless. Still might try and get BS's attention somehow ;)
 
Out of the many negatives of this system, I'm not sure that is one. Why should James Harden lose out because he's healthy?
You can flip that though and say why should Westbrook miss out just because he isnt healthy.

It's not like the AFL when you miss two weeks, you only miss two games and the most you can be behind is 6 points if the player you are chasing is BOG both rounds.

In the NBA if you miss two weeks, you could potentially miss 10 or so games. That can be a 30 point headstart.
 
You can flip that though and say why should Westbrook miss out just because he isnt healthy.

It's not like the AFL when you miss two weeks, you only miss two games and the most you can be behind is 6 points if the player you are chasing is BOG both rounds.

In the NBA if you miss two weeks, you could potentially miss 10 or so games. That can be a 30 point headstart.

But if Harden has played better in those 10 games, he clearly has better claims to being MVP. Getting injured is simply bad luck. There isn't welfare in the MVP count.

If phatandphreaky was here he'd tell you to pull your head in ;)
 
But if Harden has played better in those 10 games, he clearly has better claims to being MVP. Getting injured is simply bad luck. There isn't welfare in the MVP count.

If phatandphreaky was here he'd tell you to pull your head in ;)

Pretty much this.

I don't know how someone can say someone doesn't have a better claim on being an MVP if he played 10 more games and played well in them while the other guy was sitting.

The only other way to do it is the Geelong way and use your best 75 games. There is no way you should use a number less than 75 games though.
 
Kudos to you for running this, I have enough trouble watching a couple of nba games per week :eek:
One thing is that I find the way they award the mvp frustrating as players who star earlier in the year may be overriden by players later in the season, I would almost like to see it voted on a monthly basis and maybe if this happens you wouldn't see derrick rose win the mvp in the 2011-12 season, not saying he shouldn't have won it that season, please don't overreact to my comments.
 
March 11 update

Getting down to the nitty gritty, can James Harden be caught? Maybe he will. But then again, maybe he ... won't.

upload_2015-3-12_17-46-9.png
 
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