Anyone had a look at the season handicap on Ladbrokes etc?
AFL 2015
- Thread starter Sausage Legs
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Lol bombers dont need to get hit by ASADA to miss out. Both clubs suffered key injuries all season and missed the 8 by a game last year with better percentages than 3 of the teams who made the 8. I think the Crows are more likely at the moment personally because of injuries at the Eagles but its not that outlandish
- Sep 21, 2004
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Im a West Coast supporter and I dont think were good enough to make it.... yet... we lose too many 50/50 games... the fact we couldnt beat 1 team in the 8 last year isnt good... prob 9th again
PuntingFanatic
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I'm not saying it's a good bet but I think we will make it. Recent history suggests a couple will drop out of the 8 from last year, I think we will be one to take their place. As another mentioned waters hardly featured for us over the last 2-3 seasons so he shouldn't even be mentioned in the equation. Not sold on Richmond, Essendon and Geelong. Completely agree with the poster who said the dons don't need penalties to miss out on the 8. I don't rate the bombers that highly
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TheBrownDog
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Maybe we should have a poll on this thread as to who posters think will make the 8 and interestingly who will drop out. May be interestingly to look back in September.
As I posted earlier, the simple fact remains that since the final 8 was developed, every year there has been at least 2 changes in it from year to year.
As I posted earlier, the simple fact remains that since the final 8 was developed, every year there has been at least 2 changes in it from year to year.
1.88 for West Coast to make the 8 is horrible.
If anyone wants my 2 cents on the ladder this year -
1st Tier
Hawthorn
Sydney
Port Adelaide
All of these 3 teams should be well entrenched in the Top 4 at the end of the year in my eyes. Port are the slightly speculative ones, but they've got the list there to make a deep run into the finals again (barring injuries to key players). Hawthorn and Sydney have the depth to make Top 4 even with a few injuries.
2nd Tier
Fremantle
Geelong
Fremantle have the potential to be in the 1st Tier of teams, but I have quite a few question marks on them. With Pavlich, Sandi and McPharlin another season older they are in a tough spot. If all these 3 can fire again (or at least 2 of them), they should be in the Top 4. Geelong need their younger guys to really take the next step this year if they want to compete for a Top 4 spot. I have Geelong anywhere from 4th - 8th. Don't think they will miss the finals personally, but if enough teams from the 3rd Tier step up they could be in trouble.
3rd Tier
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Adelaide
West Coast
Richmond
Collingwood
Essendon
Seven teams here vying for most likely 3 spots in the 8. Some might argue that North should be in the 2nd Tier of teams being that they made a Prelim final last year, but I am just not 100% sold on them yet. If new recruits like Waite and Higgins can do some damage (not to their bodies that is) then they could be a threat again. Gold Coast should make the 8 this year given the young talent they have among with the obvious guns. Adding Malceski to the team in my eyes was perfect for them. With him and McKenzie running of the half back line this year they will be dangerous. Adelaide have the talent on their list, I don't think anyone would argue that. The big question is the backline depth. If Talia goes down they are screwed. If one of Hartigan, Cheney or Thompson can stand up and really assist in the backline it will be huge. Walsh has the coaching experience at an assistant level but it remains to be seen whether he can do it at a senior level. I think the Crows will make the 8 this year so long as Talia plays 18+ games. West Coast have already lost McKenzie which is a huge worry. McGovern has a huge amount of talent and can stand up in his absence, but the whole team will need to readjust. I think they will miss the 8 this year, but by the barest of margins. Richmond were lucky to play finals last year in my opinion, and they got found out by Port in the Elimination final. They will need their young blokes to improve quite a bit to really compete with other Top 8 teams this year, and support for Riewoldt is a must. Collingwood are an interesting one. They've got a bunch of guns, then a bit of a gap. Some of these young guys might need one more season to really develop the Pies back into a finals team again. They will be able to push a lot of teams this year, but if injuries hit them again they will suffer. Essendon will be hit hard by ASADA in my opinion and just won't be able to make finals. They've got the talent on the list to make a run at the 8, but anything longer than a month ban for the 2012 guys and they won't be playing finals.
4th Tier
Carlton
Brisbane
Both these 2 are in a rebuild phase right now and need another year in my eyes to play finals. Brisbane have recruited well, but they lack the key position talent to make it count. If guys like Close and McStay can stand up in their forward line they should be able to make a few upsets this year. Most likely these guys will be inconsistent, so I can't see them pushing to close to the 8. Carlton are another interesting one. I think we can push a lot of the teams above us on the right day, but we've got so many players with question marks next to them. I think this will be another year of finding what works the best for us. If we can get Jones, Casboult or Watson to provide support for Henderson then we could do some damage.
5th Tier
GWS
Melbourne
Bulldogs
Saints
I think its fair to say none of these teams will push for finals this year. Some might argue GWS can, but I just don't see it happening this year when you've got a bunch of very solid teams fighting for the 8. Losing Patton was a huge hit for them for this year. McCarthey could stand up, but from what I saw last year he might be better in defense for them. Melbourne will have another year down the bottom. They've got some exciting young players coming through. I think the Dees will just be happy to see some improvement from these guys and win more games than last year. Bulldogs are obviously planning for a run at a flag in around 5 years time. Libba going down with an ACL hurts them a lot. They are prepared for a down year this year. Saints in a similar vein to this. I actually think the Saints can do well this year if they get their structures sorted. McCartin looks like a gun, Goddard was a great recruit as well. Ultimately they will be looking for more development into guys like this and Billings etc.
TLDR: I type too much.
1st Tier
Hawthorn
Sydney
Port Adelaide
All of these 3 teams should be well entrenched in the Top 4 at the end of the year in my eyes. Port are the slightly speculative ones, but they've got the list there to make a deep run into the finals again (barring injuries to key players). Hawthorn and Sydney have the depth to make Top 4 even with a few injuries.
2nd Tier
Fremantle
Geelong
Fremantle have the potential to be in the 1st Tier of teams, but I have quite a few question marks on them. With Pavlich, Sandi and McPharlin another season older they are in a tough spot. If all these 3 can fire again (or at least 2 of them), they should be in the Top 4. Geelong need their younger guys to really take the next step this year if they want to compete for a Top 4 spot. I have Geelong anywhere from 4th - 8th. Don't think they will miss the finals personally, but if enough teams from the 3rd Tier step up they could be in trouble.
3rd Tier
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Adelaide
West Coast
Richmond
Collingwood
Essendon
Seven teams here vying for most likely 3 spots in the 8. Some might argue that North should be in the 2nd Tier of teams being that they made a Prelim final last year, but I am just not 100% sold on them yet. If new recruits like Waite and Higgins can do some damage (not to their bodies that is) then they could be a threat again. Gold Coast should make the 8 this year given the young talent they have among with the obvious guns. Adding Malceski to the team in my eyes was perfect for them. With him and McKenzie running of the half back line this year they will be dangerous. Adelaide have the talent on their list, I don't think anyone would argue that. The big question is the backline depth. If Talia goes down they are screwed. If one of Hartigan, Cheney or Thompson can stand up and really assist in the backline it will be huge. Walsh has the coaching experience at an assistant level but it remains to be seen whether he can do it at a senior level. I think the Crows will make the 8 this year so long as Talia plays 18+ games. West Coast have already lost McKenzie which is a huge worry. McGovern has a huge amount of talent and can stand up in his absence, but the whole team will need to readjust. I think they will miss the 8 this year, but by the barest of margins. Richmond were lucky to play finals last year in my opinion, and they got found out by Port in the Elimination final. They will need their young blokes to improve quite a bit to really compete with other Top 8 teams this year, and support for Riewoldt is a must. Collingwood are an interesting one. They've got a bunch of guns, then a bit of a gap. Some of these young guys might need one more season to really develop the Pies back into a finals team again. They will be able to push a lot of teams this year, but if injuries hit them again they will suffer. Essendon will be hit hard by ASADA in my opinion and just won't be able to make finals. They've got the talent on the list to make a run at the 8, but anything longer than a month ban for the 2012 guys and they won't be playing finals.
4th Tier
Carlton
Brisbane
Both these 2 are in a rebuild phase right now and need another year in my eyes to play finals. Brisbane have recruited well, but they lack the key position talent to make it count. If guys like Close and McStay can stand up in their forward line they should be able to make a few upsets this year. Most likely these guys will be inconsistent, so I can't see them pushing to close to the 8. Carlton are another interesting one. I think we can push a lot of the teams above us on the right day, but we've got so many players with question marks next to them. I think this will be another year of finding what works the best for us. If we can get Jones, Casboult or Watson to provide support for Henderson then we could do some damage.
5th Tier
GWS
Melbourne
Bulldogs
Saints
I think its fair to say none of these teams will push for finals this year. Some might argue GWS can, but I just don't see it happening this year when you've got a bunch of very solid teams fighting for the 8. Losing Patton was a huge hit for them for this year. McCarthey could stand up, but from what I saw last year he might be better in defense for them. Melbourne will have another year down the bottom. They've got some exciting young players coming through. I think the Dees will just be happy to see some improvement from these guys and win more games than last year. Bulldogs are obviously planning for a run at a flag in around 5 years time. Libba going down with an ACL hurts them a lot. They are prepared for a down year this year. Saints in a similar vein to this. I actually think the Saints can do well this year if they get their structures sorted. McCartin looks like a gun, Goddard was a great recruit as well. Ultimately they will be looking for more development into guys like this and Billings etc.
TLDR: I type too much.
- Sep 21, 2004
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1. Sydney
2. Port Adelaide
3. Hawthorn
4. Fremantle
5. North Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Adelaide
8. Richmond
In: Adelaide
Out: Essendon
Just my opinion
2. Port Adelaide
3. Hawthorn
4. Fremantle
5. North Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Adelaide
8. Richmond
In: Adelaide
Out: Essendon
Just my opinion
- Oct 3, 2008
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I think Essendon and maybe Richmond fall out and two of Adelaide, West Coast and Gold Coast replace them
PuntingFanatic
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Love the in depth analysis Anzac. Good work.
Also as far as the top 4 goes usually one or two inclusions/exclusions each year also.
2000 - dons, blues, dees, north
2001 dons lions port, tigers
2002 - port, lions, crows, pies
2003 port lions pies swans
2004 port lions saints cats
2005 crows wce swans saints
2006 wce Adelaide freo swans
2007 cats power wce north
2008 cats hawks dogs saints
2009 saints cats dogs pies
2010 pies saints cats dogs
2011 cats pies wce hawks
2012 hawks crows swans pies
2013 hawks cats freo swans
2014 swans hawks cats freo
Very rarely the same 4 make it the next year although it has happens twice. I think if there was one team to make the 4 this year that didn't last season it would be the roos. I think they're ready to get to that next level.
In no order my 8 would be
Port
Swans
Freo
North
Hawks
Wce
Lions
As for the 8th team I don't know. Lions are my smokey this season along with wce I think they'll step up. I like the lions midfield.
Also as far as the top 4 goes usually one or two inclusions/exclusions each year also.
2000 - dons, blues, dees, north
2001 dons lions port, tigers
2002 - port, lions, crows, pies
2003 port lions pies swans
2004 port lions saints cats
2005 crows wce swans saints
2006 wce Adelaide freo swans
2007 cats power wce north
2008 cats hawks dogs saints
2009 saints cats dogs pies
2010 pies saints cats dogs
2011 cats pies wce hawks
2012 hawks crows swans pies
2013 hawks cats freo swans
2014 swans hawks cats freo
Very rarely the same 4 make it the next year although it has happens twice. I think if there was one team to make the 4 this year that didn't last season it would be the roos. I think they're ready to get to that next level.
In no order my 8 would be
Port
Swans
Freo
North
Hawks
Wce
Lions
As for the 8th team I don't know. Lions are my smokey this season along with wce I think they'll step up. I like the lions midfield.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Along with the Crows as well.
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TheBrownDog
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1. Hawthorn
2. Sydney
3. Port
4. Fremantle
5. North Melbourne
6. Adelaide
7. GCS
8. Cats
Thats how I think the top 5 will end at the end of the H&A season, 6-8 could all easily interchange with each other.
In - Adelaide and GCS
Out - Richmond and Essendon.
2. Sydney
3. Port
4. Fremantle
5. North Melbourne
6. Adelaide
7. GCS
8. Cats
Thats how I think the top 5 will end at the end of the H&A season, 6-8 could all easily interchange with each other.
In - Adelaide and GCS
Out - Richmond and Essendon.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Really good post as echoed above.
I would actually have NM in the 2nd tier and the Cats in the 3rd tier. In the third tier, I would probably have 2 divisions, 1st division - Cats,Crows,GCS,WCE . 2nd Division - Tigers,Pies, Dons which kind of mirrors how I pick the teams placed 6-14 or so to land.
Food for thought for the Power. If ASADA hits Essendon players back in 2012 hard, Port will lose Ryder and Monfries throw in Wingard who is injured and wont play the first few weeks along with Trengrove. Still a strong side, but when you take out three starters from last year their first few games will be challenging, Freo, Swans(H), Roos, Hawks(H), Crows(H*). Conceivably they could lose all 5 games.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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You know about the wank fest about Port in South Australia, he is the kind of player I think they would pick as they love the "against all odds" feel good story to be in line with their marketing campaign.
Wouldnt surprise me if Hinkley hit those odds at $6.
http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/th...ner-of-the-prize/story-fndv8s6g-1227243605586
JOHANN Wagner might be more than just, as Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley puts it, “the winner of the prize’’.
Still at $3.50
A11dAtP0w3R
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Carlton are a serious spoon chance. $21, least wins. Chuck a tenner down.
MikeLike
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whose that with?
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Poor odds.
$26 for least wins with Puntingpal, and that doesn't include Essendon.
Also $20 to back and $40 to lay at Betfair. That means you should be able to get $30 if you request those odds.
Did you catch him against Hawks in the NAB? Looked very impressive. There's some serious talent in the rising star group this year, but at $34 I couldn't say no to Jordan.
- Feb 27, 2012
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Put the bet on a few days before the game seeing the odds and how highly he was rated before the draft was worth a punt at the odds, looked alot better then I thought he would against the Hawks should get a large amount of games I'd say.
Anyone noticed on william hill they have taken off stk vs gws odds for round 1?
Have I missed something? I understand why there's no syd vs ess game
Have I missed something? I understand why there's no syd vs ess game
There is a Sydney Essendon market on TAB. Essendon paying $7 haha.
Small Moves
Premiership Player
I put $10 on Tom Lamb to win the rising star at $51. Looked good in his first couple of NAB Challenge matches and should get a game with Darling out injured. Unlikely but definitely worth a shot at $51...
Not saying he's not worth a shot at $51, but I would be curious to see what percentage of bets on the Rising Star at this stage are people betting on players from their own team because they are the only ones they've read about all summer and overly optimistic fans watching training will always talk up the new talent?
