2015 - AFL Round 4

[GROTTO]

FUN FACT

If you exclude the Hawks games (and the R23 final round game against the Tigers in which they deliberately rested players for W1 of the finals) the Swans have won 21 out of their past 21 games.

Swans is my best bet of the round.

 

[banana_bus]

FUN FACT

If you exclude the Hawks games (and the R23 final round game against the Tigers in which they deliberately rested players for W1 of the finals) the Swans have won 21 out of their past 21 games.

Swans is my best bet of the round.

Yeah I really like them against Freo as well.

 

[BloodRet]

Liking Port, Collingwood and Sydney H2H

 

[Jay-Z]

FUN FACT

If you exclude the Hawks games (and the R23 final round game against the Tigers in which they deliberately rested players for W1 of the finals) the Swans have won 21 out of their past 21 games.

Swans is my best bet of the round.

Think this game will be very close. I'm considering using both the crownbet (lose by < 18 points) and sportsbet (lead at any quarter) specials in a sort of arb bet

 

[banana_bus]

Think this game will be very close. I'm considering using both the crownbet (lose by < 18 points) and sportsbet (lead at any quarter) specials in a sort of arb bet

Yep and Ladbrokes if they have their first goal special on.

 

[Jay-Z]

Yep and Ladbrokes if they have their first goal special on.

Yeah the ladbrokes one seems to have been taken off their promo page for now. Not sure if it will be available this week

 

[GROTTO]

Think this game will be very close. I'm considering using both the crownbet (lose by < 18 points) and sportsbet (lead at any quarter) specials in a sort of arb bet

Nice work, Jay-Z I like this. Im expecting and hoping this game mirrors the Freo-Port game.

 

[Jay-Z]

Nice work, Jay-Z I like this. Im expecting and hoping this game mirrors the Freo-Port game.

Yeah only concern is I've just realised that the BetEasy/Crownbet promotion is for a bonus bet equal to your stake (up to $50), not cash back like the Sportsbet/Ladbrokes ones have been

 

[x_les_x]

Looking for a boak/monfries double most disposals/goals for our game. Boaks last 3 33 34 33, monfries last 3 2 4 4 though roughead might stuff everything up

Lions and saints look good value for me; Rumour rockcliffs coming back this week already?

 

[banana_bus]

Looking for a boak/monfries double most disposals/goals for our game. Boaks last 3 33 34 33, monfries last 3 2 4 4 though roughead might stuff everything up

Lions and saints look good value for me; Rumour rockcliffs coming back this week already?

I don't think Rocky will play but they're value regardless.

 

[BloodRet]

Gold Coast +15.5
Collingwood +16.5
St Kilda +18.5
Sydney 1-39

@ 19.46

 

[Atavistic]

$5 free bet on Carlton, Collingwood, North, GWS to win@9.58

 

[lions_den]

West coast line best of the week.

 

[TheKanga]

I reckon Riewoldt will miss again.
Think Carlton will win.

 

[free at last]

West coast line best of the week.

Crows line is better IMO.The crows new style of play is assisted when playing at ES.

 

[Tassieboy]

North - 6.5
Hawks - 7.5

 

[Jay-Z]

I reckon Riewoldt will miss again.
Think Carlton will win.

Yeah I agree. Would be very surprised if Riewoldt played and despite how crap Carlton have been I struggle to see the Saints getting up without him (and possibly Dunstan)

 

[Jay-Z]

West coast line best of the week.

It's a funny game that one. I can't quite rule out the possibility of a Brisbane win at home but if West Coast do win, I think it will be by more than 14 points (their average winning margin last year was above 50)

 

[Jay-Z]

What are people's thoughts on arbing margin (1-39) markets?

I'm looking at the Freo v Syd game which we all think will be close and you can get:
$2.20 on Freo 1-39 &
$2.80 on Syd 1-39

It's been 12 years since either team beat the other by >40 so the only real risk I see is the draw

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

What are people's thoughts on arbing margin (1-39) markets?

I'm looking at the Freo v Syd game which we all think will be close and you can get:
$2.20 on Freo 1-39 &
$2.80 on Syd 1-39

It's been 12 years since either team beat the other by >40 so the only real risk I see is the draw

You must have deep pockets...

 

[Jay-Z]

You must have deep pockets...

I'll take that as a no then... Oh well, just an idea

 

[TheKanga]

Yeah I agree. Would be very surprised if Riewoldt played and despite how crap Carlton have been I struggle to see the Saints getting up without him (and possibly Dunstan)

Carlton really toweled them up at etihad last year by 82pts & 32pts.
Since it's in NZ I think Carlton will win 1-39.

 

[banana_bus]

What are people's thoughts on arbing margin (1-39) markets?

I'm looking at the Freo v Syd game which we all think will be close and you can get:
$2.20 on Freo 1-39 &
$2.80 on Syd 1-39

It's been 12 years since either team beat the other by >40 so the only real risk I see is the draw

Draw or Sydney going nuts. What did they beat Port by the other day?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I'll take that as a no then... Oh well, just an idea

Outlay vs Return, thats all i meant by it.

 

[Jay-Z]

Draw or Sydney going nuts. What did they beat Port by the other day?

48 but Port are a different side to Freo. As I said before, the last time one of these teams beat the other by 40+ was 2002 and the only teams to do that to Freo in the last couple of years have been Hawthorn and the Saints (when Freo rested their whole team)

I see a 40+ margin as very unlikely but I am not quite confident enough on picking who will win. Hence I was looking at playing the two specials (Sportsbet and Crownbet) off against each other or looking at the 1-39s. In the end, I think I may just have a nibble on either side <15.5 or just give it a miss altogether