To be honest I didn't have Adelaide that far ahead of you guys, certainly not top 4 as some of the models have predicted. It's good to see the Dogs get some good wins, but the Hawks game was a fair smackdown and it could be another next weekend.
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threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
It's easy for me to say now but I thought that the 70 point margin wasn't really fair. We'd lost Wood, Boyd and Bontempelli, all very good players and in the latter two's case, our two best players for the year across the first two games of the year. Then we lose Wallis and Morris in the first quarter due to injury. You really can't take much out of a game in judging a team after that.
Jones2ByrneJones
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- Jul 27, 2012
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True. 4-1 was more of a hyperbolic statement, but if we look away from the numbers (kind of defeats the purpose of this thread, though, doesn't it), it's the way they've been playing. Comfortably defeated Richmond and West Coast, and absolutely annihilated the Crows. A little bump against the Hawks but they're a young side, consistency isn't guaranteed, and the Hawks, when on song, are near unstoppable. Not to mention injuries.
A small sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from but I can absolutely see similarities between us in 2013 and them.
Getting into their sweet spot; Ninth.
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Just shut up and die, please.
How about you show some respect, pissant
- Aug 5, 2012
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How about you show some respect, pissant
What's to be respected?
A terrific poster who has been a stalwart of this forum for years maybe?
Disgraceful post
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A terrific poster who has been a stalwart of this forum for years maybe?
Disgraceful post
Regurgitating the same tired, repetitive 'joke' turns him into a terrific poster? Sounds more like a shitposter to me.
CrimsonRaven
Vermillion Gunslinger
To be fair the squiggle currently has you finishing 10th at the moment.
You'd be right if it WAS a joke...
- Aug 18, 2009
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I have looked at that, and no, it doesn't get more accurate as the season progresses. It is often shaky in the first few rounds, but then so is everyone, as we try to figure out what's changed over the off-season.
I have a bunch of algorithms called MOVER that adjust themselves based on how many rounds have been played, so they're heavily influenced by the last game or two at the beginning of the season and less so later on, but they haven't delivered better results often enough to make me want to switch from ISTATE.
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Four tips is a big difference after four rounds! The squiggle's 1- and 2-pt tips have been going the wrong way this year.
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Round 4, 2015
Animated!
A couple of epic encounters by the top four teams taught us... not very much, delivering scorelines close to squiggle expectations. Home state advantage is a big deal, so it's no knock on either the Hawks or the Swans to lose those games... and, by the same token, not very surprising that Port and Fremantle won them.
The Dockers' ongoing drift upwards and rightwards shouldn't be ignored, though. It's also notable that Port Adelaide have performed very much like a top-4 team in three games out of four, their rout by Sydney the only exception.
Adelaide, West Coast, and North Melbourne share the same territory this week, which is a fairly high-attack area. Last year, the second-tier teams were quite a lot more defensively-oriented.
Good week for: the Bulldogs! All the surprising performances came from lower-ranked teams, with Melbourne, Collingwood, and the Giants moving a lot. But the Bulldogs are now a realistic finals contender, with three wins in the bank and probably the second-softest fixture in the league. That's a huge jump from where they were a month ago.
GWS is also a finals contender, with a pretty solid month now.
Bad week for: Richmond. Bleh. After trending well in every year from 2010 to 2013, the Tigers went nowhere in 2014, charting around the same area, and they're stuck there again in 2015.
Not so great for Carlton, either, despite a pretty good 40-pt win over the Saints. With the Bulldogs, Giants, Demons, and Magpies evacuating the lower-left quadrant like it's a fire drill, the Blues are left in the bottom four.
Squiggle predictor says:
Interactive squiggle!
Rounds 2 and 4 have had big upsets. Heavily favoured teams across the board have lost in both of those rounds, so it's really hard to get a good read on what the teams' strength really is, especially when Adelaide is so highly fancied and then gets smashed by the dogs. Hawthorn could have been absolutely destroyed if Port didn't take their foot off their throat, up by 9 goals at one point. I can't help but think that a 50+ point loss to Hawthorn would have had more repercussions than a 50+ point to Adelaide.
bomberclifford
Importer/Exporter
I'd like to be able to say that was the case but Port where under enormous pressure to protect the win.
Even when the lead was out to 9 goals, the stats were very even across the two teams.
Hawks put the foot down in the third quarter and right up to the final siren, won the statistical game comprehensively. If not for Port's incredible defensive work they would have steamrolled us.
In the end, the 8pt margin was a pretty accurate indication of the contest.
- Aug 5, 2012
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I knew I could trust the squiggle, any position is better than 9th.
Roo Lives Again
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Top 4 are pretty clear and then there's the rest
I think Sydney have as well. In rounds 1 & 4 they moved ever so slightly to the right.
He means without sliding back to a previous position, eg. like we did in round 3.
Squiggles has us & Freo then daylight, then Hawks and Port, then daylight, then the rest.
Only Forwards
Just you wait and see
The Crows are trolling the animated squiggly and starting to draw a ****.
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Lol, love how GWS and Bulldogs have rapidly jumped into a convoy.
Still liking Freo at this stage, but Sydney and Hawthorn will no doubt have to be contended with when it matters.
I never really fret over the squiggle's week-to-week tips (even if the squiggle is generally very good in this regard), I come here mostly to observe the longer term trends and get an idea of how teams are really stacking up, despite what the ladder says.
Still liking Freo at this stage, but Sydney and Hawthorn will no doubt have to be contended with when it matters.
I never really fret over the squiggle's week-to-week tips (even if the squiggle is generally very good in this regard), I come here mostly to observe the longer term trends and get an idea of how teams are really stacking up, despite what the ladder says.
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