Sport 2015 Punters Lounge

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Bobby_ said:
bummer, Jones has really dried up this final quarter. Cotchin has now equaled him for possessions, and looks likely to get a couple more of those junk-time meaningless possessions in the back pocket to boost his averages.
Hope Jones can finish off this quarter strong
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Your right those meaningless junk time posses cost you. Shame because Jones was by far the better player on the night
 
I'm am not very good at this :(
I added a Hawthorn-Free-Adel multi at 10% before the game started.
All i have left is the Free over Sydney -7.5
 
Here's the tip i just got today Bobby_

NBA PLAYOFFS
WARRIORS -6.5
DREAM PLAY
(200 units)

Huge play here, and the only one you need on the board today. The Pelicans are completely dejected after blowing that huge 4th qtr lead and eventually losing the game in OT. They are a young team, and that plays havoc on their minds. The Warriors are an unstoppable force chock full of veterans and a coach that knows how to win. There is blood in the water here, and the sharks are hungry. Look for a blowout and an easy cover ATS here.

Their dream plays are the best of the best, as i said i don't know much about NBA but based on this i've had $500 at the line and $324 H2H

ljkj_zpsmk75yd3k.jpg
 
I'm 1 for 5 this weekend

Late bet of the round
Adel to beat WB -11.5 $1.45

Bet 19.2%

Current reserve 130%
 

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Well I went 1-5 this weekend, lost 50% off my reserve

Lesson 1 Carlton are always worse then you think they are
Lesson 2 Don't get greedy
Lesson 3 Don't bet on sports you know nothing about
Lesson 4 Richmond is always worse than you think they are
Lesson 5 don't chase good money after bad
Lesson 6 Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away

I was over aggressive this weekend and I paid for it so I'm going back to basics.
Two four legged bets of 10% around paying approx $5

Current reserves 130%

3-7
 
abet said:
10lana i can see a Lesson 7 next.

Lesson 7 Don't take 4 leg multi's when its hard enough to pick a single winner.
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But that's my strategy.

Though I'm not doing well on my tipping, 21 out 36. How can expect to get a multi right with that strike rate.
 
abet said:
No i never missed the line, the line was Dallas +2.5 which means they had a 2.5 point head start and they won so i won. The only way i could have lost is if Dallas had of lost by 3 points or more.
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shows how much i know about gambling and lines.:oops:

blazers today, with the benefit of hindsigh, would have been a good bet.
 
darren forssman said:
shows how much i know about gambling and lines.:oops:

blazers today, with the benefit of hindsigh, would have been a good bet.
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Sorry but i know * all about NBA, i just have a mate who works at one of the casinos in Vegas who take wagers on these games and he gives me these tips, that's the only reason i bet on the games otherwise i wouldn't even bother because i don't know much about teams or players for that matter.

So far i've posted 4 tips on the NBA and it stands at 3 wins and 1 loss, one of those wins was what he calls a dream play where he thinks it's virtually a certainty.
 
abet said:
Sorry but i know * all about NBA, i just have a mate who works at one of the casinos in Vegas who take wagers on these games and he gives me these tips, that's the only reason i bet on the games otherwise i wouldn't even bother because i don't know much about teams or players for that matter.

So far i've posted 4 tips on the NBA and it stands at 3 wins and 1 loss, one of those wins was what he calls a dream play where he thinks it's virtually a certainty.
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the more you know a sport the more you analyse it, that is a problem itself.

if you get anymore nba tip offs post them, i will not bet, just more for interest.
 
darren forssman said:
the more you know a sport the more you analyse it, that is a problem itself.

if you get anymore nba tip offs post them, i will not bet, just more for interest.
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Yes no worries i will post them as i get them and i don't care if anyone backs them. The tips are pretty good, he has a strike rate of over 75% which is great in any form of gambling.

I hate analyzing games and i hate doing the form on races. Lets face it, not many people who analyze or do form for themselves win, so i find it much easier paying an expert for tips, specially ones that win on a constant basis. I am actually trialing a new system on the races tomorrow and will be interested to see how it goes. i'll post the details below just to show how much these professionals get into it.
 
We have a new product that is a statistical based model similar to systems that are used in HONG KONG. They are not based on anything other than complex algorithms. What this does is play the percentages and takes all emotional opinion out of the game and plays the high percentage plays

I have been looking at and studying for the best part of 3 months now and it does look very very promising – however like all systems it will have its runs of outs and the best way to judge it is over an extended period of time

We are going to offer a free trial of the service and eventually if successful it will be a premium limited service for $299 per month like the Greyhounds service.

It will be open to 15 members only.

As with the Greyhounds, I would never ask for anyone to cough up money sight unseen SO I am willing to offer the product as a trial for FREE to whoever would like to try it out.

The trial will run for 1 month

Wednesday 22nd April through to Wednesday 20th May 2015

Then the service will start at $299 per month and will be limited to 15 people only.

NOTE - This is not for everyone. It's a statistical based system and targets in on favourites generally. It is based on $100 Units (but as always you decide how much you can afford). If you are wanting horse tips to go to the pub with and win 2k with - this is NOT for you.

This is the answer to building a consistent passive income.

They have not had one losing month in 3 years.

They generally bet each day

You will not make $300,00 per year but chip away at making around $40,000 - $70,000 per year on a consistent basis assuming a $100 unit bet

This service bets 7 days per week as it does not care if it's Geraldton or Flemington (completely stats based).

This service is not for the "can't wait to back that horse next start" punter OR "I've been waiting for this horse" punter.

It takes the emotion out of it and it is completely an "INVESTMENT INTO A PASSIVE INCOME"


Below is a little run down on the product

DON'T REPLY TO THIS EMAIL

We will contact all the people who are wanting to trial this on Tuesday with an email outlining the rules to the system and we will start on Wednesday



“We are offering a unique predictive programme to manage punting on horse racing. The programme has been tested over a period of more than 3 years, and more than 5,000 races, after over 15 years of research.

In simple terms, our Selections are based on a statistical analysis the relative Form Ratings of every race in Australia and Zealand on a daily basis. The logic is that - if Form Ratings have any validity at all - then the relative ratings of horses in a race ought to be able to show a statistical correlation with the race result. In fact, there is such a statistical correlation.

We use that correlation to identify the races that have the highest probability of delivering the winner from the two or three highest-rated horses in the race, and we then overlay an algorithm that analyses form and betting fluctuations against likely outcomes to identify the horses that become Selections. There are always one or two Selections in a race that qualifies against the statistical correlation, and the system delivers a winning result in over 75% of the chosen races. The system also monitors betting fluctuations to make a "Bet/No Bet” decision 10 minutes before starting time.

In fact, this system:

  • has been profitable from the first day;
  • has never had a losing month in more than 3 years;
  • has been incredibly consistent in delivering winning results;
  • Gets a “Bet/No Bet” decision right over 75% of the time!
In the current financial year to date, we have selected 1,790 races as statistically significant, and chosen 815 (or 46%) as Qualifying Races that meet the selection algorithm. We have achieved a winning result in 629 of those Qualifying Races. That’s 77%! From month to month, the ratio of Winning Races to Qualifying Races has ranged from a low of 69% to a high of 82% - always a winning level!


Based on Win bets of $100, the system has delivered a profit of $36,240, representing a return of 129% on our outlay, since July 1, 2014.


And the Selections place in Qualifying Races more than 80% of the time. So, although our results are based on Win bets, Each Way punters can also show a tidy return."

Screen%20Shot%202015-04-19%20at%204.03.23%20pm_zpsb6onpuku.png



The trial begins tomorrow Wednesday 22nd April and runs through to the 22nd May

We have a lot of people trialing and as we have said previously, this will be an exclusive service with only 15 members involved. It will be a premium service that costs $299 (3 Units for most) and it will be SMS based like our Greyhound Service.

It is not viable for us to use SMS within the trial period though - we will be posting on our FACEBOOK PAGE 10mins prior to each race if it's a bet or not.

The post will say -
Terang Race 6 BET ON

OR

Terang Race 6 Number 8 NO BET (especially if there are 2 selections, we are not going to say Number 8 no bet but number 3 BET! - we are not going to give the selection away to everyone who is surfing our social media outlet)

We understand that some people can't check Facebook or check phones for messages throughout the day and that these people will be placing the bets all at the same time earlier in the day. Each to their own - this may not be a service that suits everyone and this month free may help you decide whether it is for you.

Preferably, waiting till 10mins before the race will enhance your return as some selections will be eliminated from the morning selections.

We have added the rules below - remembering, this a premium service at $299 per month and we will be doing all the hard work for you. The Stats Man finds the selections in the morning and then we monitor the races and flucs to determine if it qualifies as a BET or NO BET (this is what Facebook will be used for in the trial period and SMS in a months’ time).



  1. We provide 1 or 2 Selections for each Qualifying Race.
  2. We suggest $100 bets on each Selection - unless the following situations and adjustments apply 5 minutes before Start Time:
  • if one Selection is backed in to Odds less than $2.50 and the second Selection is at Odds greater than $3.50, then BET ON THE FIRST SELECTION ONLY;
  • if an Odds On Selection drifts more than $0.50, then DO NOT BET;
  • if either Selection drifts in betting by more than $2.50, then DO NOT BET ON THAT SELECTION;
  • if there is significant backing for a starter outside our Selections (i.e. Odds on that horse shorten by greater than $5.00 into single figure Odds), then DO NOT BET;
  • if there are 4 or more starters with Odds within $3.00 of each other, then DO NOT BET;
  • if track conditions deteriorate to Heavy 8 or worse, then DO NOT BET;
  • if there is a clear track bias, then DO NOT BET.

There will occasionally be 6 - 8 dollar pops but the majority will be short priced favourites. It is important to take the emotion out of this service. It is just like the stock market - for some it will be a case of checking on results at the end of the day to see if a profit or loss was made. Watching the races are not imperative, doing the form is irrelevant, checking the rules and ticking them off does not need to be done as we will take care of that for you, this is solely an investment that will build a solid passive income.

Do not be disgruntled if you lose $300 one day as the next may result in a $500 profit. Judge it at the end of the month as all betting systems have ups and downs (this is no different).

If the service says to have $100 on a $1.48 fav - DO IT! The system has been faultless for 3 years doing it this way, so there is no reason to re-invent the wheel.

Let the betting bank accumulate - treat it as a business - don't grab money out for bills and a couple of drinks on a Friday night. If you are going to do that then this is probably not for you.

We understand through some of your emails that a lot of you will not be betting throughout the trial period - not a bad idea at all. This will let you sit back and see how it all works and will let you plan out your attack once you get involved financially.

I have attached Sunday's selections to this email

Morning

and

Results

This was the last day that the Stats Man bet because of inclement weather on the East Coast of NSW (lost complete power - severe flooding). This may not improve for the next couple of days and there may be no selections because of that BUT you will receive and email at around 11.30am each day even if we are not betting on that day. Fingers crossed everybody is safe.

Sunday resulted in

5 Qualifying Races for 5 Winners!


StatsBet Rules meant:

  • Devonport Synthetic Race 1 - Peacekeeper became a single StatsBet Selection and WON at $1.80;
  • Wyong Race 1 - Mum’s Blessing became a single StatsBet Selection and WON at $2.30;
  • Terang Race 6 - Tall Ship became a single StatsBet Selection and WON at $2.15.

A great thing going forward is - these results have generally been based on Tab Tote prices and as we all know corporates and more so Betfair will result in a greater profit.

Talk tomorrow



The trial will not be starting today - sorry for any inconvenience

The Weather in the Hunter worsened last night with all power being lost. The Stats Man lives in the middle of it and is currently doing his best to save his house and stock.

This was cyclonic weather that has taken lives and turned main streets into rivers.

There is no point putting it off until tomorrow and updating you every day saying we need another day - so we will delay the start of the trial

It will now start on Wednesday 29th April

This will give everyone in the Hunter time to get their lives back in order.

Once again, sorry for the delay but we had no choice in this instance
 
great work abet :thumbsu:

I have one play for the lunchtime game between Spurs & Clippers. DeAndre Jordan over 11.5 points.
Understandable I haven't been spot on with a couple of these in the past, but got a strong feeling this will just hit. The only issue will be foul trouble but that's the gamble.
$475 to win $413
 
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