Giro D'Italia 2015

Who will win?

  • Alberto Contadour

    Votes: 5 50.0%
  • Rigoberto Uran

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Richie Porte

    Votes: 3 30.0%
  • Fabio Aru

    Votes: 2 20.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    10

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Last night's stage turned out to be an epic, though SBS tried their hardest to ruin it for the viewers with some very badly timed ad breaks and interviews.

The fun started on the descent from Aprica, with Katusha sending 3 riders to the front, with the aim of attacking on the descent. What happened next we'll never know, because it happened during an ad break - and it was over 5 minutes later that Dave & Matt got to discuss it, because they were busy doing an interview with Richie Porte straight after returning from the ads. What we do know is that an (unidentified) Astana rider came down on the descent, with Contador and most of his teammates being held up as a result. By the time SBS returned from their ad break, Contador was stuck in the 4th group on the road, a minute down on the leaders.

CyclingNews are reporting that Contador had a mechanical problem and stopped to get a wheel from Basso, with Astana & Katusha pressing the attack. Oleg Tinkoff thinks that was unsportsmanlike behaviour. He obviously has a poor memory, because Contador won the TdF after attacking Andy Schleck under very similar circumstances. Given that Katusha were already driving the pace before Contador's mechanical failure, I see no reason why they should have sat up and waited. If it's good enough for Contador to attack under those circumstances, it's only fair that Contador be attacked under those circumstances.

With Contador stuck behind, Katusha and Astana worked together to prevent him bridging the gap before they started climbing the Mortirolo. Contador burned through almost his entire team while chasing along the valley floor. At one point they closed to within 25 seconds of the lead group, but the gap had blown out again to 50 seconds by the time he hit the climb. It mattered not...

Contador sprinted up the Mortirolo, doing most of the work himself, occasionally finding allies who were prepared to work with him - most notably Igor Anton (Movistar). It took him half the mountain, but he caught the leading group of 3 riders - Aru, Landa and Kruijswijk. He took a minute or two to recover from the assault, before attacking again. Landa and Kruijswijk went with him, but Aru was left in their wake. By the time they reached the summit Aru had lost around 1:50 (we don't know the actual margin, as SBS threw to another unfortunately timed ad break). Not only did Aru struggle, he was overtaken by Trofimov (Katusha), Heysedal (Garmin) and Amador (Movistar).

The three leaders stayed together down the descent and up the lower reaches of the climb to Aprica (their 2nd time on this ascent). Landa attacked with around 4km to go. Contador tried to go with him, but gave up the chase - he'd spent too many petrol tickets on the Mortirolo and chasing through the valley. Landa went on to win the stage by 38 seconds, followed by Contador and Kruijswijk. In doing so he became the 1st rider to win multiple stages in this year's Giro. Aru finished 2:51 behind Landa, with Landa also gaining a 12 second time bonus for winning the stage.

Contador now holds a commanding 4:02 lead, with Landa having taken 2nd position away from Aru. Landa will now take over the leadership of the Astana team, significantly changing the dynamic of the race. Contador has been more than a match for Aru, dropping him on a couple of mountain stages already. However, Landa has beaten Contador on a couple of stages and clearly has his measure when the roads tilt skywards. It's a pity that he was forced to stay with Aru on those earlier stages, as I believe he would have taken considerably more time out of Contador on those early stages if he'd been allowed to fly free. As it is, he has just 3 mountain stages left to claw back Contador's advantage. I don't think he can take 4 minutes in 3 stages, but it will be entertaining watching him try.

Which brings me to the most obvious point... What the hell is Landa on? It's clearly some very potent juice, and something which he's confident can't be detected. His previous best finish in a GT was 28th - and now he's dropping Contador on climbs, as if Bertie were standing still. I'm not under any illusions that Contador is riding clean, but Landa is clearly on another level of doping. I have no problem with Contador taking back 50 seconds on the Mortirolo - he's been climbing at that level for years and he clearly paid a price for his efforts, being unable to go with Landa when he attacked near the end of the stage. Landa, on the other hand, has no history of performance at this level. He's a good climber, very good maybe, but not good enough to make Contador look stupid on a major mountain stage. This is doping at its most blatant and it's a damn shame that the drug testers and the race organisers are unable to do a damn thing about it. The last time I saw a donkey turning overnight into a champion racehorse was a rider named Chris Froome... The last time I saw a climber perform like Landa, his name was Michael Rasmussen...
 
One of the best stages I have seen in a long long time. That was up there with Cadel’s effort on the Galibier when he won Le Tour.

The Mortirolo is from all reports one of the toughest climbs in Europe with its 11% Average grade for 11 Kms. Now I have mates who have done it and they have said it is quite comparable to the gradient on the first 8 kms of the back of Falls Creek but obviously still harder than that. You could see the riders straining up there.

In the lead up to this climb, it is said that Contador had a rear wheel mechanical and swapped wheels with Basso (who had same gearing). At this point, Katusha and Astana went full gas and put a minute into Contador in to the base of the Mortirolo. Tinkoff worked very hard to chase it down and burnt all of its riders, so it (rather awesomely) left Contador on his own at the base to chase Aru, Landa, Kruijswijk and the rest of the break. He swallowed them all up inside the first 5 kms in what was an amazing 20 minutes of viewing. Riding past blokes like they were standing still. He got to the front, and as Vader said, took a break, and then went again. This bloke is a machine. However, Landa and Kruijswijk managed to stay close enough to him on the final part of the climb and they were all together on the descent. At this point, Contador had no more to prove and it was job done. You almost new Landa would win given the energy he would have saved. He is on something quite special juice wise. He has never done anything in a GT and I echo Vader’s comments… what a joke.
 
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I've done Baw Baw, which from the gantry is just over 11% for 6k's, to basically double the length and climb like that was amazing. They banged on about Saxo using 34/29 ratio but from the coverage I swear for most of that he had about 2 spare cogs on the rear. :eek:
 
Last night's stage was a complete non-event, particularly after the epic stage which preceded it. For once there were no GC implications - no falls, no unfortunately timed mechanical failures, nothing to get excited about. Stages like these have been remarkably rare in this year's Giro, with almost every other stage having something "happen" to make it interesting, even when they looked on paper to be relatively straight forward.

It was always going to be a stage for the sprinters, at least those who haven't already abandoned the race in preparation for the TdF. Congratulations to Modolo for winning an otherwise forgettable stage.
 

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Last night's stage was a complete non-event, particularly after the epic stage which preceded it. For once there were no GC implications - no falls, no unfortunately timed mechanical failures, nothing to get excited about. Stages like these have been remarkably rare in this year's Giro, with almost every other stage having something "happen" to make it interesting, even when they looked on paper to be relatively straight forward.

It was always going to be a stage for the sprinters, at least those who haven't already abandoned the race in preparation for the TdF. Congratulations to Modolo for winning an otherwise forgettable stage.
A good one to have a much needed early night... i predicted a relatively tame day, and i even nearly fell asleep watching the highlights.... :)
 
Last night's stage turned out to be even more entertaining than I expected. Only one climb - a Cat1, with the summit (for KotM purposes) 35km from the finish. It looked as though it could be a nothing stage, with time gaps made on the climb negated by the long descent to the finish, but that turned out not to be the case.

This was a race in 2 parts - the breakaway had 12 minutes on the peleton and enjoyed the freedom to race for stage victory, further back there was a whole heap of drama in the race for GC.

At the front of the race, things began to break up at the foot of the climb. Two groups formed, with a lead group of 3 riders and a second group of 4. Both groups contained a rider from BMC, with Moinard in the lead group and Gilbert in the second. These groups re-joined and broke up a couple of times, depending largely on the gradient of the climb at that particular point on the road. They came back together on the descent. With Moinard riding on the front of the group, Gilbert attacked and the others just watched him disappear. Nobody bothered to chase him at any stage and he soloed to a comfortable 47 second win.

Back in the peleton, things got interesting after a crash not far from the base of the climb. I don't think Landa went down in the crash, but he was definitely held up by it, losing around a minute to the lead group containing Aru & Contador. Contador took advantage of the situation, attacking as soon as the road tilted skywards.

Why did Contador attack? I can think of 3 reasons:
  • He's Alberto Contador and that's just what he does. Give him the slightest opportunity and he'll attack 9 times out of 10. We've seen it all race and nobody should have been expecting anything different.
  • Karma's a bitch. Astana took advantage of him having a puncture 2 days earlier, now it was payback time.
  • He knows that a juiced up Landa is capable of taking time on him in the final 2 epic mountain stages still remaining. He may well have wanted to increase his buffer, as insurance against drug fueled attacks by the most blatant doper of the last 5 years.
Contador left the group and quickly established a gap. Kruijswijk tried to go with him, but quickly gave up and returned to the peleton. Hejsedal didn't respond to Contador's violent attack, but he did leave the group and set about chasing Contador at his own pace - catching him at the top of the climb as a result.

At one point Contador's lead over the doped up Landa was almost 2 minutes, but Landa too was attacking through the rapidly disintegrating peleton. The dope fiend closed the gap down to around 50 seconds, at which point he caught the Aru group and stayed there. He was well on track to catch Contador well before the top of the climb, so it's a bit of a mystery why he stopped when he caught the Aru group. Maybe he was exhausted after chasing them down up the climb, but I doubt it given his obviously drug fueled condition.

Having opened the gap fairly quickly at the bottom of the climb, Contador rode the top half of the climb at virtually the same pace as the Aru group. His lead over Aru/Landa at the top of the climb was 1:08.

Hesjedal had a teammate in the lead group, who dropped back to provide support on the descent. With 2 Garmin riders in the small group, Contador refused to do any work at all - much to the disgust of Hesjedal. Contador forced Hesjedal and Villella to do all the work on the descent, only taking a turn on the front once they hit the bottom of the descent. It made no tactical sense for him to be lazy like this, when there were still potential gains to be made, so I can only assume that he was suffering after spending so much energy on the climb.

In the end, Contador and Hesjedal crossed the line together, 1:13 ahead of the group containing Aru & Landa. Contador increased his lead to 5:15 over the dope fiend and 6:05 over Aru. Hesjedal's efforts were rewarded with a jump back into the top-10. He's currently 9th, only 8 seconds down on Kruijswijk. A top-5 finish is still not entirely out of the question given his form in the last week of the race.

PS. I didn't see Betancur in the television coverage at any stage last night.
 
Loved that stage profile, the back road of MtDonna Buang here in Vic is similar but not as steep. Would love it if they held a pro level stage race out there rather than the boring great ocean rd and geelong back streets. Will never happen though.
 
Thanks for the reviews, guys. It was a pretty good Giro as usual. A pity about the Porte/Clarke incident, but it seems he just doesn't have the form.

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Bertie takes the title, but the question is how much has the Giro taken out of him? Looks like a tough Tour ahead, and there are some fresh competitors ahead. I think it's clear that Nibali might absolutely kill it.


Loved that stage profile, the back road of MtDonna Buang here in Vic is similar but not as steep. Would love it if they held a pro level stage race out there rather than the boring great ocean rd and geelong back streets. Will never happen though.

I heard that we have got some decent slopes down that way. They're not as long, but they are steep. What would be your ideal route for a one day classic?
 
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Still wondering what Astana were on and what they were thinking on the climb to Sestriere.

My guess is that Aru was given a bag (or two) of his own blood overnight, before the start of stage 19. Prior to that point he'd been struggling badly every time the road went uphill. Overnight he started monstering the last climb on the stage. Suspicious? More than a little. This suggests to me that he got a quick fix, rather than just relying on a longer term performance enhancing drug. A blood bag seems the most likely candidate.

Landa was presumably micro-dosing with EPO. I'm just guessing here. There are others who post regularly on this board who would have a better idea of the pharmaceutical enhancements out there that could be responsible for his dramatic improvement. Here we have a rider who has always been a good climber, but whose best previous Grand Tour finish was 28th. All of a sudden he's riding away from Contador, arguably the best climber of the last decade, making him look Contador look silly on every single climb. Watching him leap away from Contador and the other GC riders was strongly reminiscent of watching Michael Rasmussen, and we all know where he got his climbing ability. There is not a snowball's chance in Hell that Landa was riding clean and it was obviously an ongoing doping program, as he rode at this ridiculous level from start to finish.

Then there's the tactics that they employed on stage 20. Apparently Landa was called back to Aru because they thought Aru was the best placed rider to take out the GC - never mind that the gap Landa had opened up on the Finestre meant that he was the virtual team leader on the road. Then again, they'd given Aru the blood bag(s), so they knew he had something special still to give. If they were trying to get Aru into the maglia rosa, then why did he refuse to work on the front of the group at any stage on the Finestre climb and descent, or the climb to Sestriere (until he attacked solo)? Surely he should have been working to bury Contador if it was the maglia rosa he was chasing and not individual stage glory?

Astana put some serious work into one of the biggest and most blatant doping programs the peleton has seen in recent years. Only UK Postal 2012/2013 comes close, prior to that you have to go back to Armstrong and US Postal/Discovery Channel. They didn't exactly come away empty handed - 5 stage wins, 2nd and 3rd on the podium, plus the white jersey isn't exactly a bad result. But when you consider that they were clearly targeting the maglia rosa and had a chance to rip it off Contador's back, then their chemical enhancements have to be seen as a massive failure due to abysmal team tactics by their Director Sportifs.
 
The next big question is how much this has taken out of Contador and what it does to his chances of backing up in Le Tour? The climbs in Le Tour aren't quite as nasty as those in the Giro, but the opposition will be stronger. Nibali rides for Astana and his baseline ability is higher than Aru's, presumably with the same doping program in place that they used for the Giro. Then there's Froome, UK Postal and their chemical enhancements. Contador isn't clean, not by any stretch of the imagination, but he's up against two riders backed by the most comprehensive and effective doping programs of the last decade - doping programs that Saxo Tinkoff haven't been able to match.

Contador got away with the Giro because Astana backed the wrong horse. They thought Aru was their best hope, when it turned out that Landa's drug program had turned him into an absolute beast and their best rider by a country mile. With UK Postal working for Froome and Astana working for Nibali, he'll have two teams operating with the sole purpose of beating him. I'm not sure he'll have the legs, or the ability to counter two powerful and drug enhanced teams.
 
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