Changes vs Freo

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Thanks.:thumbsu:

For the superstar he his, we've done well containing him in that case.

Yep.

Pavlich kicks more goals on average against Brisbane (2.1), Collingwood (2.6), Essendon (2.3), Geelong (2.1), GWS (4.0), Melbourne (2.0), North Melbourne (2.1), Port Adelaide (2.0), Richmond (2.1), St. Kilda (2.0), Western Bulldogs (2.3).

Carlton (1.8), Gold Coast (1.3), Hawthorn (1.6), Sydney (1.7), West Coast (1.7) do better than us at stopping him
 

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Apr 7, 2010
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Thanks.:thumbsu:

For the superstar he his, we've done well containing him in that case.

This fixture 10 years ago would have been his best ever effort against your lot, kicked 8 goals in a half but we still went down by a goal. Talia is a superstar defender in his prime and I'd think he'll have Pav's measure again.

Using Dangerfield and Wright in the same sentence like that is sacrilegious

He may as well be Dangerfield against us, at least he used to in the past. Don't recall him playing against us recently?

Mentioned it earlier but against North's similarly undermanned midfield we lost the inside 50's (by 1), you have more quality up forward than North though. You never know, take your chances and there's no reason why you can't go close at least. North's goal kicking was pure shizenhausen last week. I still have hope that this can be a quality tussle, kick ball movement from halfback is the key which makes Smith's absence particularly damaging.
 

robboaustralia

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I am quite optimistic about the game this week. If we can actually get out of the blocks within the first 5 minutes we are a chance. Bit of luck goes our way you never know what can happen in football. Surely our injury curse has to end and if we can kick accurately. Further points I would like to add.
  • We are the underdog, we will have a big crack.
  • All the performance pressure is on Freo as the top side. Freo are due a loss and may well just be a little complacent.
  • We are the home team, no travel.
  • Our Saturday night crowds are normally up and about (IMO at least 30% louder). Surely worth a couple of goals.
  • Indigenous round and we have Betts, Cameron and Yolmen on the big Saturday night stage. Surely inspiration for them in "their" jumper.
  • Betts will also want to tribute his game to his grandfather and will be pissed abut being tarnished all over the media this week.
Enough negative stuff. Get behind the boys. See you on the hill Saturday night. Be loud be passionate.
 

huludicidal

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Lol at the negativity here, as long as you have Dangerfield and Wright you're a chance.

The negativity surrounding our chances for this game stems from a few different factors from where I sit:

1) Fremantle's impeccable form. 6 or 7 of their 8 wins have been completely and utterly over at 3/4 time. Some have been over at 1/4 time. One of the more dominant first 8 games of a season by any team that I can recall to be honest.

2) Our injury list. Smith is a reigning All-Australian and is also the best field kick in a team full of terrible field kicks. Jaensch is in the best 4 kicks in a team full of terrible field kicks. Sloane is our heart and soul and there simply is nobody else on our list remotely capable of playing his role (and his record against Freo is particularly excellent). Brad Crouch is by far our best player under 50 games (it isn't close) and is the closest thing to a top 5 draft pick that our club has ever had in its history. Otten is a solid third tall in either defense or attack. Shaw is the backup to Otten. Douglas is in our best half dozen mids. Kerridge is a very solid and versatile player with reliable skills and a huge tank, and when fully fit would have been the most logical matchup for Fyfe IMO.

3) Our lack of depth. It's one thing to have injuries. The best teams can cover them to a certain extent. Unfortunately we aren't one of the best teams, as evidenced by the fact that we have won one final since 2009 (ironically against Fremantle). We have a bunch of blokes HORRIBLY out of form (van Berlo, Wright, Jenkins, Henderson) that we are essentially forced into playing due to the above injuries combined with the complete vomit that is the remainder of our list (Brodie Martin, Podsiadly, bunch of late draft picks and rookie listed blokes). Both of Jake Kelly (rookie upgrade who tries really hard but his skills are not AFL standard at this stage) and Jake Lever (skinny as a rake and not ready to play a key position yet) are currently being charged with the task of playing on blokes much taller and / or much heavier than them in defense. If Talia takes Pavlich (I strongly doubt this will happen), one of these scrawny undersized 19-20 year olds will be dealing with a combo of Clarke and Sandilands. It's quite ridiculous really. Personally, I think even if Pav does play, Talia needs to take the resting ruckman. We'll see what happens.


Combine all of the above and it smells like a bad one coming this weekend. To be honest, I think you'd struggle to find when the last Adelaide Crows home game was where the visiting side were $1.30ish favourites (I just checked two different sites and Freo are $1.30 on one and $1.29 on the other). Has this ever happened?

Unfortunately I think the bookies are spot on with those odds, just as they were last week with the $1.60ish GWS starting price.

If we get up, it will go down as the greatest HOME non-finals victory in club history from where I sit. I'm just hoping we have a good crack and are at least in the game heading in to the 4th quarter.
 
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Not the reply I was expecting to a throwaway one-liner but definitely a welcome one, even if almost overwhelmingly negative and defeatist :p

Early goals and early crowd involvement will be huge for Adelaide, first 10 or even 5 minutes should tell us what kind of game it will be. Be negative all you want but I just can't ever think of Adelaide in Adelaide as an easy gig, lack of personnel can still be overcome with commitment to the contest and unrelenting defensive pressure.

You just lost to the team that were formerly your biggest bunnies, your players will be angry.
 

huludicidal

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Not the reply I was expecting to a throwaway one-liner but definitely a welcome one, even if almost overwhelmingly negative and defeatist :p

Early goals and early crowd involvement will be huge for Adelaide, first 10 or even 5 minutes should tell us what kind of game it will be. Be negative all you want but I just can't ever think of Adelaide in Adelaide as an easy gig, lack of personnel can still be overcome with commitment to the contest and unrelenting defensive pressure.

You just lost to the team that were formerly your biggest bunnies, your players will be angry.


I think of myself as far more of a realist than a defeatist, but I see your point.

Our forward line could cause you guys some trouble if the ball gets in there quickly. Hopefully it's an entertaining and tight contest.
 

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Asking the tough questions. Depends on who think is top 4?

We haven't played a top 4 side in 2015.

However last year he was 'decent' against Freo in round 12 and North in rd 13. Which were the last two times David Mackay has faced top 4 sides.

Fair call. However..

Freo he had more handballs (12) than kicks (9) when his whole job is outside run and to hit the scoreboard (0.0) or set others up.

North we dominated that game. I wouldn't even consider them contenders or top 4.
 
Nov 5, 2009
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Starting to get a real form guide now of how Walsh uses team lineups. 7/8 times the sub has come from the interchange bench. Also really seems as though the interchange bench is the s**t list. We have dropped a player for form 5 times and 3/5 times that player was listed on the interchange bench prior to being dropped. I think Luke Brown is very very lucky that Jaensch is out, otherwise he might be forced to have a spell in the 2's. Good to see that Grigg is off the Interchange bench. This will (hopefully) be his 4th game in a row where he isn't the sub and is getting over 70% game time.

Dropped week 9: Kerridge (inj)
Brought into side week 9: Henderson
Interchange Bench week 9: Brown, M Crouch, Lyons, Wright
Sub week 9: Wright (prediction).
Player subbed off during week 9:

Interchange Bench week 1: Jenkins, Mackay, CEY, Lyons
Sub Week 1: Lyons
Subbed off week 1: Jaensch

Dropped week 2: Lyons
Brought into side week 2: Grigg
Interchange Bench week 2: Jenkins, Wright, Mackay, Grigg
Sub week 2: Grigg
Player subbed off during week 2: Wright

Dropped week 3: Cheney (inj), Grigg
Brought into side week 2: Kelly, Thompson
Interchange Bench week 3: Jenkins, Mackay, Douglas, Wright
Sub week 3: Wright
Player subbed off during week 3: Cameron

Dropped week 4: Cameron
Brought into side week 4: Lyons
Interchange bench week 4: Lyons, Wright , CEY, Jaensch
Sub week 4: Lyons
Player subbed: Laird (Concussion)

Dropped week 5: Hartigan, Lyons
Brought into side week 5: Cameron, Cheney
Interchange bench week 5: Jaensch, Cameron, CEY, Kelly
Sub week 5: Wright
Player subbed: Sloane

Dropped week 6: Douglas (inj), Jenkins (inj), Henderson (inj), CEY (inj)
Brought into side week 6: Lever, Crouch, Lyons, Grigg
Interchange bench week 6: Grigg, Lyons, Kelly, Crouch
Sub week 6: Crouch
Player subbed: Sloane

Dropped week 7: Sloane (inj)
Brought into side week 7: Henderson
Interchange bench week 7: Brown, Lyons, Crouch, Kelly
Sub week 7: Lyons
Player subbed: Smith (inj):

Dropped week 8: Smith (inj), Jaensch (inj), Henderson (inj)
Brought into side week 8: CEY, Jenkins, Kerridge
Interchange Bench week 8: Lyons, Crouch, Kelly, Grigg
Sub week 8: Lyons
Player subbed off during week 8: Kerridge (inj).
 
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Starting to get a real form guide now of how Walsh uses team lineups. 7/8 times the sub has come from the interchange bench. Also really seems as though the interchange bench is the s**t list. We have dropped a player for form 5 times and 3/5 times that player was listed on the interchange bench prior to being dropped. I think Luke Brown is very very lucky that Jaensch is out, otherwise he might be forced to have a spell in the 2's. Good to see that Grigg is off the Interchange bench. This will (hopefully) be his 4th game in a row where he isn't the sub and is getting over 70% game time.

Dropped week 9: Kerridge (inj)
Brought into side week 9: Henderson
Interchange Bench week 9: Brown, M Crouch, Lyons, Wright
Sub week 9: Wright (prediction).
Player subbed off during week 9:

Interchange Bench week 1: Jenkins, Mackay, CEY, Lyons
Sub Week 1: Lyons
Subbed off week 1: Jaensch

Dropped week 2: Lyons
Brought into side week 2: Grigg
Interchange Bench week 2: Jenkins, Wright, Mackay, Grigg
Sub week 2: Grigg
Player subbed off during week 2: Wright

Dropped week 3: Cheney (inj), Grigg
Brought into side week 2: Kelly, Thompson
Interchange Bench week 3: Jenkins, Mackay, Douglas, Wright
Sub week 3: Wright
Player subbed off during week 3: Cameron

Dropped week 4: Cameron
Brought into side week 4: Lyons
Interchange bench week 4: Lyons, Wright , CEY, Jaensch
Sub week 4: Lyons
Player subbed: Laird (Concussion)

Dropped week 5: Hartigan, Lyons
Brought into side week 5: Cameron, Cheney
Interchange bench week 5: Jaensch, Cameron, CEY, Kelly
Sub week 5: Wright
Player subbed: Sloane

Dropped week 6: Douglas (inj), Jenkins (inj), Henderson (inj), CEY (inj)
Brought into side week 6: Lever, Crouch, Lyons, Grigg
Interchange bench week 6: Grigg, Lyons, Kelly, Crouch
Sub week 6: Crouch
Player subbed: Sloane

Dropped week 7: Sloane (inj)
Brought into side week 7: Henderson
Interchange bench week 7: Brown, Lyons, Crouch, Kelly
Sub week 7: Lyons
Player subbed: Smith (inj):

Dropped week 8: Smith (inj), Jaensch (inj), Henderson (inj)
Brought into side week 8: CEY, Jenkins, Kerridge
Interchange Bench week 8: Lyons, Crouch, Kelly, Grigg
Sub week 8: Lyons
Player subbed off during week 8: Kerridge (inj).

Love your research. My only issue is Luke Brown being dropped. This will/should never happen.
 
Nov 5, 2009
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Love your research. My only issue is Luke Brown being dropped. This will/should never happen.

I am not so sure. Not arguing that he isn't a fantastic one on defender. He is top notch at that aspect.

The issue is with his offensive game. Has been extremely disappointing this year. Doesn't get it enough. When he does get it he is nervous and always takes a very safe option. Think his confidence is really down when he has the ball in his hand.

So with that considered - is he crucial to our defensive set up? I am becoming less and less convinced. Walshs defensive set up requires flexibility, rotation and the ability to use the ball well when coming out of defensive 50. Its why we have seen so much of Hendo, Cheney, Mackay, Jaensch and Laird in the back half. IMO - its why Brown and Talia have struggled this year. They are purely lock down defenders. Both Talia and Brown really need to work hard over the next 24 months on their offensive side of the game so that they can be a key part of our 2017 push.
 
Jun 7, 2011
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Starting to get a real form guide now of how Walsh uses team lineups. 7/8 times the sub has come from the interchange bench. Also really seems as though the interchange bench is the s**t list. We have dropped a player for form 5 times and 3/5 times that player was listed on the interchange bench prior to being dropped. I think Luke Brown is very very lucky that Jaensch is out, otherwise he might be forced to have a spell in the 2's. Good to see that Grigg is off the Interchange bench. This will (hopefully) be his 4th game in a row where he isn't the sub and is getting over 70% game time.

Dropped week 9: Kerridge (inj)
Brought into side week 9: Henderson
Interchange Bench week 9: Brown, M Crouch, Lyons, Wright
Sub week 9: Wright (prediction).
Player subbed off during week 9:

Interchange Bench week 1: Jenkins, Mackay, CEY, Lyons
Sub Week 1: Lyons
Subbed off week 1: Jaensch

Dropped week 2: Lyons
Brought into side week 2: Grigg
Interchange Bench week 2: Jenkins, Wright, Mackay, Grigg
Sub week 2: Grigg
Player subbed off during week 2: Wright

Dropped week 3: Cheney (inj), Grigg
Brought into side week 2: Kelly, Thompson
Interchange Bench week 3: Jenkins, Mackay, Douglas, Wright
Sub week 3: Wright
Player subbed off during week 3: Cameron

Dropped week 4: Cameron
Brought into side week 4: Lyons
Interchange bench week 4: Lyons, Wright , CEY, Jaensch
Sub week 4: Lyons
Player subbed: Laird (Concussion)

Dropped week 5: Hartigan, Lyons
Brought into side week 5: Cameron, Cheney
Interchange bench week 5: Jaensch, Cameron, CEY, Kelly
Sub week 5: Wright
Player subbed: Sloane

Dropped week 6: Douglas (inj), Jenkins (inj), Henderson (inj), CEY (inj)
Brought into side week 6: Lever, Crouch, Lyons, Grigg
Interchange bench week 6: Grigg, Lyons, Kelly, Crouch
Sub week 6: Crouch
Player subbed: Sloane

Dropped week 7: Sloane (inj)
Brought into side week 7: Henderson
Interchange bench week 7: Brown, Lyons, Crouch, Kelly
Sub week 7: Lyons
Player subbed: Smith (inj):

Dropped week 8: Smith (inj), Jaensch (inj), Henderson (inj)
Brought into side week 8: CEY, Jenkins, Kerridge
Interchange Bench week 8: Lyons, Crouch, Kelly, Grigg
Sub week 8: Lyons
Player subbed off during week 8: Kerridge (inj).

Think you're right about the bench. Dmac was there for the first 3 weeks and was thoroughly ordinary. Played his blinder against Melbourne and started on the ground the next week. On him, his form line is pretty good considering how poor he was in the first 3. If we're correct though, there's an awful lot of faith/patience being shown in VB. I again ask, how much input does Noble have on selection, he was straight up delusional with what he said last night on AA.
 
Jul 17, 2006
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These selections have the Port game written all over it…except Freo's inside game is way better so we won't even have that advantage.

They will only need 40 inside 50's to obliterate our undersized defence…and they will get a lot more than that!

I'm still a big Walsh fan but imo structure has to supersede personnel a little bit when it comes to our defensive line-up…we NEED another tall.
 

Elite Crow

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I am not so sure. Not arguing that he isn't a fantastic one on defender. He is top notch at that aspect.

The issue is with his offensive game. Has been extremely disappointing this year. Doesn't get it enough. When he does get it he is nervous and always takes a very safe option. Think his confidence is really down when he has the ball in his hand.

So with that considered - is he crucial to our defensive set up? I am becoming less and less convinced. Walshs defensive set up requires flexibility, rotation and the ability to use the ball well when coming out of defensive 50. Its why we have seen so much of Hendo, Cheney, Mackay, Jaensch and Laird in the back half. IMO - its why Brown and Talia have struggled this year. They are purely lock down defenders. Both Talia and Brown really need to work hard over the next 24 months on their offensive side of the game so that they can be a key part of our 2017 push.
Um, Brown is averaging 2.5 kicks less than DMack who has a more attacking role and Brown has been more offensive this year, so much for taking the safe option but when your deep in defence that's not a bad trait anyway.

Defence is about having the right balance, Laird, Jaensch, Hendo and Dmack have all had time playing as the 7th defender.

You need some defenders who are lock down to stop the oppositions best forwards, that's Talia and Brown. Brown got touched up by Green last week but I don't think he was on him the whole game, besides that I don't believe has been beaten.

To suggest Brown is close to being dropped is laughable.
 
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