Possibly which is why the next two weeks are crucial.
After that we have a pretty cruisy run into September (Geelong, Port, Brisbane and Carlton) which we can use to manage our player loads
Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
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Possibly which is why the next two weeks are crucial.
After that we have a pretty cruisy run into September (Geelong, Port, Brisbane and Carlton) which we can use to manage our player loads
- May 4, 2013
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We didn't though that is the thing. We just did the bare minimum whilst getting wins, our form was atrocious up until the Fremantle game. (Well in my opinion of what we're capable of)
cryptor
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- May 11, 2008
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You're assuming Hawthorn have reached their peak.
I don't think they have. Jordan Lewis and Alastair Clarkson don't think we have either.
Don't let the results against Fremantle and Sydney fool you. They are in a massive form slump and aren't playing like their ladder positions suggest they should. Carlton are also not very good and were missing some of their bests like Judd and Gibbs.
Carlton will be a lot better when Judd gets back.
- May 4, 2013
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As arrogant as it sounds we are not near our best at all. We just got teams at the right time.
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Agreed, I couldn't see WC or Freo knocking you off in the Grand Final, however I could see either of us winning a Prelim/Qualifying final at Subi against you guys. 2 trips to Perth in 3 weeks would be tough too.
- Apr 28, 2008
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I'm also still wondering about Fremantle. It's odd this year, because Freo also appeared to have mistimed things with their rigorous pre-season, not to mention the ever present injury guillotine seemingly dangling over the Eagles neck. Sydney could maybe do a Bradbury.
The recent streak of both flagless '95 debutants NQ Cowboys and Freo also left me intrigued, it would be funny if they both ended up breaking the duck in the same year.
The recent streak of both flagless '95 debutants NQ Cowboys and Freo also left me intrigued, it would be funny if they both ended up breaking the duck in the same year.
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Hawthorn are hardly working harder than their opponents (they are, but not by the huge amount people seem to think that will cause them to tire), they are just super efficient.
Barring injuries, they won't just magically drop off- other teams will need to play to their level to be a chance, I think West Coast can.
Barring injuries, they won't just magically drop off- other teams will need to play to their level to be a chance, I think West Coast can.
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I'm trying not to think about that happening!!!
In all seriousness, that would be a really tough hurdle for Hawthorn to overcome should that scenario happen. The only way we will get a home qualifying final is if we beat both Richmond and West Coast. I don't like our chances.
- Sep 18, 2013
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It's a bit easier to think about when you consider that if we don't win in round 19, we get another shot in the qualifying final and if we don't win that we get another go in the prelim. We basically have to win 1 from 3.I'm trying not to think about that happening!!!
In all seriousness, that would be a really tough hurdle for Hawthorn to overcome should that scenario happen. The only way we will get a home qualifying final is if we beat both Richmond and West Coast. I don't like our chances.
This what I keep telling myself to get to sleep at night.
Purple Jesus
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Oh nooo you might have to fly across the country twice in 3 weeks? Welcome to WA footy boys.I'm trying not to think about that happening!!!
In all seriousness, that would be a really tough hurdle for Hawthorn to overcome should that scenario happen. The only way we will get a home qualifying final is if we beat both Richmond and West Coast. I don't like our chances.
I'm trying not to think about that happening!!!
In all seriousness, that would be a really tough hurdle for Hawthorn to overcome should that scenario happen. The only way we will get a home qualifying final is if we beat both Richmond and West Coast. I don't like our chances.
If Hawthorn win 1 of (up to 3) their trips to Subiaco they will make the Grand Final
Well if we lose to Richmond (and assuming West Coast don't lose to one of Fremantle or Adelaide (away) and Fremantle dont lose to West Coast and one of North (away) and Port (away)) then we need to win one of two Perth trips to make the GF...not much changes anyway
Either way if we can't defeat Richmond (who are 5.50 outsiders) we don't really deserve to be flag favourites anyway...let alone 1.35 favourites to make the GF with the bookies...
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According to the players no team ever reaches their peak.
We're still blowing out the cobwebs from the off season, it's good to get out there and have a run.
- Aug 18, 2009
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The Doggies are doing pretty well, sitting only a little below that next tier of teams that include Collingwood, Adelaide, Port, etc. They've moved a long way this year.
The reasons they're not higher are they started a fair way back, their best performances have been against teams the squiggle didn't really rate at the time, their wins against good teams have all been close, and they haven't done much in the month before last weekend relative to teams around them.
As threenewpadlocks mentioned, defeating West Coast today would earn you a lot more squiggle movement than it did in Round 1. Richmond weren't rated that highly in Round 2, either. The Sydney and Adelaide wins were good -- especially the latter, since it wasn't close. But then it's a mixed bag of results until last week, and even beating Collingwood wasn't as good as you might think since the squiggle isn't mad about the Pies this year.
In flagpole terms, the Dogs are fairly low since they started a long way back and haven't delivered a really dominant performance except for Round 4 vs Adelaide. By that, I mean a game in which they kick an unusually big score or hold their opposition to an unusually low one. They've had lots of good games, for sure, but this algorithm gives more credence to breakout ones.
- Jun 27, 2013
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How low are talking here? 30 points 40 points? Geelong obviously held GWS to a low score on the weekend but Geelong are well ahead of GWS on the flagpole/squiggle.
Even though we lost to Geelong for etc who are well above us on the squiggle, we held them to only 72 points that day, our win against Collingwood on the weekend was the 1st time our opposition scored more than 74 points against us since round 10 against Port, we've gone 5 wins and a loss since that Port game, I've seen the Dogs squiggle move mainly east in that time but it finally went north this week.
Now hypothetically, if the Dogs came out and thumped Port next week would that put the Dogs ahead of Collingwood and Port on the squiggle/flagpole by dragging Port down or not really due to Port's lowly ladder position?
Also, did they move up a bit after the Sydney win or nah?
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Currently tips Bulldogs 88-84 (home ground advantage), if you score higher you will move north, if Port score less you move East (and vice versa). That may change after this weekends results of course.
So, if the Tigers beat Hawthorn tomorrow it won't mean anything 'cause we'll only be doing it in July? (Worried now
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Final Siren, what's the pattern over years past with teams performing strongly at certain points in the season? I wonder this as to whether or not Hawthorn are peaking in July, early August, as opposed to September, as opposed to Fremantle who were so dominant early in the season.
I agree. I don't yet know whether this conclusion is cause for hope or grave concern for opposition supporters.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Holding a team to 30 or 40 is massively better than 72 or 74. And 30 is a lot better than 40.
To show why, I'll take you through the maths of it. NO WAIT COME BACK.
So this weekend the squiggle expects Essendon 74 - 86 Bulldogs. If that's what actually happens, neither team will move on the chart. The ladder predictor might bump up the Dogs' expected finishing position, since it could then be 100% sure the Dogs win that game, instead of 64% sure, like it is now. But the chart won't change since both teams' form was exactly as expected.
Now let's look at scenarios where the Dogs score the expected 86 points but keep Essendon to less than than the expected 74. In all of these, the Dogs will move horizontally right (eastwards), since their defence has overperformed. The only question is how far.
The squiggle's ISTATE-91:12 algorithm is:
PREDICTED SCORE = 85 x (TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE) + HOME ADVANTAGE
No home advantage here, since both teams are Melbourne-based, so we can ignore that.
Essendon's ATTACK is currently 50.6. The Dogs' DEFENCE is 58.5. So this is why Essendon are expected to score 74 points:
74 PTS = 85 x (50.6 ÷ 58.5)
Scenario #1: Dogs win 86 to 60.
With the Dogs keeping Essendon to only 60 points, the squiggle calculates what the Dogs' DEFENCE should have been:
60 PTS = 85 x (50.6 ÷ ???)
... and the answer is 71.7.
The Dogs won't shoot straight to 71.7 on the squiggle chart, though, because ISTATE-91:12 gives a 91% weighting to previous games. The Dogs' new DEFENCE will be 91% of their current rating (58.5) plus 9% of this new one (71.7):
(0.91 x 58.5) + (0.09 x 71.7) = 59.7
So after this game, despite beating squiggle expectations by 14 points, the Dogs only move a little on the chart, with their DEFENCE increasing from 58.5 to 59.7, a gain of 1.2.
Scenario #2: Dogs win 86 to 50
50 PTS = (85 x 50.6) ÷ ??? ... the answer is 86.2.
(0.91 x 58.5) + (0.09 x 86.2) = 61.0. A gain of 2.5. This is enough to overtake Collingwood.
Scenario #3: Dogs win 86 to 40
40 PTS = (85 x 50.6) ÷ ??? ... and that's 107.5! Even though it's only another 10-pt difference between expected and actual scores, the impact is getting bigger.
(0.91 x 58.5) + (0.09 x 107.5) = 62.9. A gain of 4.4. Up to North Melbourne now.
Scenario #4: Dogs win 86 to 30
30 PTS = (85 x 50.6) ÷ ??? ... that's 143.4.
(0.91 x 58.5) + (0.09 x 143.4) = 66.1. A gain of 7.6. Past the Cats you go.
Scenario #5: Dogs win 86 to 20
20 PTS = (85 x 50.6) ÷ ??? ... that's 215.1.
(0.91 x 58.5) + (0.09 x 215.1) = 72.6. A gain of 14.1. At this point, the Dogs' defence is up there with Fremantle, and better than Richmond and Sydney.
Scenario #6: Dogs win 86 to 10
10 PTS = (85 x 50.6) ÷ ??? ... that's 430.1.
(0.91 x 58.5) + (0.09 x 430.1) = 91.9. A gain of 33.4, and after keeping Essendon to the lowest score kicked by any team since 1961, the Dogs' defence is now the best in the league by a fair margin. I also have to redraw the squiggle chart, because they've shot off the right-hand side of it.
Scenario #7: Dogs win 86 to 0
0 PTS = (85 x 50.6) ÷ ??? ... that's infinity.
The squiggle breaks down, my server crashes, and Hird is sacked.
Does everyone get the same flat home ground advantage in the algorithm?
cryptor
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- May 11, 2008
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I've been meaning to ask you for a while what would happen if a team could keep another to a score of 0. I was hoping Hawks could have done it to Carlton last week lol.
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