Prediction It's the Final(s) Countdown! (A realistic approach)

[Doggy Dan]

Now now

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, still need another 2-3 wins just to make the 8.

In Brisbane? No thanks.

 

[X_box_X]

Is anyone else hoping Adelaide beat Sydney today?

A dream scenario IMO would be the Bulldogs finishing 5th and Richmond finishing 4th and having to travel to Perth in the first week of the finals. Assuming the higher ranked teams then win in the opening week of finals, we would play Richmond at the 'G in the Semi.

Very unlikely to happen, though. As I said, it's a dream. Sydney losing to Adelaide gives us the best opportunity to turn that dream into a reality, though.

Of course things can turn to s**t and we don't even make finals. I'm fully aware of that.

 

[fargy]

Is anyone else hoping Adelaide beat Sydney today?

A dream scenario IMO would be the Bulldogs finishing 5th and Richmond finishing 4th and having to travel to Perth in the first week of the finals. Assuming the higher ranked teams then win in the opening week of finals, we would play Richmond at the 'G in the Semi.

Very unlikely to happen, though. As I said, it's a dream. Sydney losing to Adelaide gives us the best opportunity to turn that dream into a reality, though.

Of course things can turn to s**t and we don't even make finals. I'm fully aware of that.

That would be good! But I'm more of the thought that we would prefer Adelaide to lose so we can stay ahead of them. We have five maybe six teams playing for 6-10/11th in my opinion, need to stay ahead of as many below as we can rather than focus on above us on the ladder. Doing a few different ladder predictors it's remarkably close between the lot, and the two points each to Cats/Crows almost guarantees we'll need 13 wins to even make it as I can see both of them ending up on 50 points.

 

[Doggies1972]

I said this last week, in regards to top 4. If this team beat that team and we beat so and so. Tigers beating hawthorn pretty much knocked that on the head, though it is still possible. Yet I will back my pre season prediction, we will make the 8

 

[MYOB]

Pretty simple for me. Keep barracking for the teams that we are battling for a top 8 spot to lose until we have 13 wins.

Then barrack for the teams playing against the sides we'll be fighting against for top 4 spot.

 

[dogwatch]

Ollie Wines subbed out at 1/4 time vs Saints. Shoulder injury. Could be a big out for Port next week.

 

[Next Waiting]

The event horizon.

The event horizon is now a dot in the rear vision mirror of the lid

 

[fargy]

Hopefully Freo end up smashing the Giants, will put us two games ahead and just under 20% ahead.

 

[DylanW]

How many games do you think we'll win of the remaining 5?
I'm thinking
Port Adelaide (W)
Melbourne (W)
West Coast (L)
North Melbourne (50/50)
Brisbane (W)

 

[Tiger_4_Life]

Great work dogs

Wonder what a Mr R Griffen is thinking now.

 

[DylanW]

I really hope we put a lot of effort into winning at Subiaco. I'm so sick of our team going there and feeling so defeated before the game even starts. I can't remember the last time we had a good game there ? 05 when they were strong favorites (west coast ) or a against freo by 9 points or so.. I think this decade we haven't won there!

We flogged freo by over 60.5 points round 1 2009 there, I remember I was there and had a bet on it

 

[fargy]

How many games do you think we'll win of the remaining 5?
I'm thinking
Port Adelaide (W)
Melbourne (W)
West Coast (L)
North Melbourne (50/50)
Brisbane (W)

Next week is 50/50 in my opinion. Be interesting if Port play an open game like against the Bombers at Etihad last week or shut it down like they did against us over there.
Should, and I say should, beat the Dees. They haven't won at Etihad in how long?
WC is about 20/80, but it will be interesting with them as they have Hawks and Freo the next two.
Norf about 35/65 especially after travelling back with a six day break, like every time we play them
Should beat Brisbane, they will have s**t up shop, Beams to go in for surgery this week and expect a few more to follow over the coming weeks.

 

[Next Waiting]

Next week is 50/50 in my opinion. Be interesting if Port play an open game like against the Bombers at Etihad last week or shut it down like they did against us over there.
Should, and I say should, beat the Dees. They haven't won at Etihad in how long?
WC is about 20/80, but it will be interesting with them as they have Hawks and Freo the next two.
Norf about 35/65 especially after travelling back with a six day break, like every time we play them
Should beat Brisbane, they will have s**t up shop, Beams to go in for surgery this week and expect a few more to follow over the coming weeks.

I have a sneaky feeling that we'll be the game WC think they'll win but will drop (after being softened up by Hawks and Freo), and it'll cost them.

 

[DylanW]

I have a sneaky feeling that we'll be the game WC think they'll win but will drop (after being softened up by Hawks and Freo), and it'll cost them.

If this scenario eventuates the ladder predictor spits out some interesting results

 

[Next Waiting]

If this scenario eventuates the ladder predictor spits out some interesting results

It's possible WC could drop 3 in a row (including us) and finish 5th. We'd play Norf and then probably Sydney if successful. I think we're more likely to win against the weagles and then lose to norf the following round than the other way round given the return travel factor and weagles vulnerability after 2 tough games before ours.

 

[DylanW]

It's possible WC could drop 3 in a row (including us) and finish 5th. We'd play Norf and then probably Sydney if successful. I think we're more likely to win against the weagles and then lose to norf the following round than the other way round given the return travel factor and weagles vulnerability after 2 tough games before ours.

If we somehow beat West Coast and North and Geelong win their next two finishing third (or maybe even second if all the ducks fall in line) is a mathematical possibility

 

[Norm De Guerre]

The event horizon is now a dot in the rear vision mirror of the lid

Its now arrived at the singularity.

 

[MJ_Dogs]

finishing outside the 8 even with 2 more wins is a possibility as well - glass half full/empty?

I believe the tigers, with a pretty easy draw to come, will make it. Yes we have an easy draw too but i worry with our consistency. The 1st qtr yesterday had me quite nervous! That leaves 3 spots up for grabs with 5 teams chasing - so 2 miss out of:

-Dogs
-North
-Cats
-Crows
-Giants

im just wanting to make the 8. not even thinking top 4 at all - so for me, i'm hoping adelaide and geelong keep losing meaning 1 of them plus GWS miss out. So much can happen still though - it may be a matter of % between us and GWS so yesterday certainly helped in that regard!

 

[Butane]

I'll wait until matterofstats.com finishes his analysis from the weekends game before I collate them in a post here(Tuesday is when he says he'll have it up)

I'll also wait for the bookies odds to digest the last rounds results and settle down.

So will do an update tomorrow.

(Sneak peak though - We're now roughly a 78% of top 8 and 17-20% of top 4 )

 

[MYOB]

I've had a look at the Round 23 games and come up with this schedule

Friday
Richmond v Norf Melbourne

Saturday
Port v Freo
Brisbane v Dogs
Geelong v Crows

Saturday Night
Hawthorn v Carlton
West Coast v St Kilda

Sunday
Sydney v Suns
Melbourne v GWS
Collingwood v Essendon

 

[Pugz89]

If we somehow beat West Coast and North and Geelong win their next two finishing third (or maybe even second if all the ducks fall in line) is a mathematical possibility

I wanna finish 4th, Freo in first final is tantalising, Eagles and Hawks not so much.

 

[Pugz89]

I've had a look at the Round 23 games and come up with this schedule

Friday
Richmond v Norf Melbourne

Saturday
Port v Freo
Brisbane v Dogs
Geelong v Crows

Saturday Night
Hawthorn v Carlton
West Coast v St Kilda

Sunday
Sydney v Suns
Melbourne v GWS
Collingwood v Essendon

If we finish 5th, we should get friday night ahead of Richmond. Sunday matches look good, only finalist is Swans who won't have to travel. Makes sense.

 

[cleveland]

I've had a look at the Round 23 games and come up with this schedule

Friday
Richmond v Norf Melbourne

Saturday
Port v Freo
Brisbane v Dogs
Geelong v Crows

Saturday Night
Hawthorn v Carlton
West Coast v St Kilda

Sunday
Sydney v Suns
Melbourne v GWS
Collingwood v Essendon

Ours will be Saturday night...too hot in the arvo in Brisbane

 

[MYOB]

If we finish 5th, we should get friday night ahead of Richmond. Sunday matches look good, only finalist is Swans who won't have to travel. Makes sense.

The decision will be made next week.

 

[X_box_X]

I've had a look at the Round 23 games and come up with this schedule

Friday
Richmond v Norf Melbourne

Saturday
Port v Freo
Brisbane v Dogs
Geelong v Crows

Saturday Night
Hawthorn v Carlton
West Coast v St Kilda

Sunday
Sydney v Suns
Melbourne v GWS
Collingwood v Essendon

Why on Earth would Sydney play on a Sunday? I will give you odds of $15 that that will happen.