Mega Thread Melbourne Cup Day 2015 * All betting discussion *

[iluvparis]

Both awful.

Max Dynamite who smashed them MAY be considered but nothing confirmed


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[sethlad]

Nice turn of foot from the winner,
Had run 2nd to Quest for More who was scr today
Other two would get lapped on those efforts

seth

 

[PerthBoy87]

Red Cadeaux hasn't won since the 2012 Group 1 Hong Kong Vase (2400m weight-for-age), but has placed in Group 1 races since then. I reckon for the Melbourne Cup he might get around 55kg or there abouts which would be an ideal weight, distance no problem. Possibly a place chance, could even win it, who knows.

I'm looking forward to the spring carnival.

 

[iluvparis]

SEA MOON just popping up in the Irish St Leger Trial at the Curragh tonight if you don't mind.

 

[PerthBoy87]

SEA MOON just popping up in the Irish St Leger Trial at the Curragh tonight if you don't mind.

What did SEA MOON win?

 

[iluvparis]

What did SEA MOON win?

Only the Herbet Power in Australia.

Won the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot in 2012

 

[PerthBoy87]

Only the Herbet Power in Australia.

Won the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot in 2012

Yeah I know about the Herbert Power and Hardwicke wins but I meant did he win the Irish St Ledger Trial?

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah I know about the Herbert Power and Hardwicke wins but I meant did he win the Irish St Ledger Trial?

Err no its on tonight.

 

[Pecker]

Anyone got any thoughts on Delicasy and Mongolian Khan? Had a little nibble on both.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Anyone got any thoughts on Delicasy and Mongolian Khan? Had a little nibble on both.

Delicacy staying in WA for the spring.

Mongolian Khan resumes in 2 or 3 weeks and will try for the MC. I don't dislike Mongolian khan I think it's one of our better 4yo staying crops for while but it's still well under the internationals already confirmed. I just couldn't take him at this stage.

Not to say he won't be a chance with the attrition rate of internationals and his improvement throughout the spring.

 

[sethlad]

Lots of good reports about MK but ajc derby winners have a horrible record at Flemington.
better recent record at Caulfield

seth

 

[Jugada]

Derby winners generally get far too much weight than what they deserve imo

 

[Viva la Mattner]

When's the Prix de Kergolay? Interesting to see if any potential form/runners coming from here again

 

[sethlad]

When's the Prix de Kergolay? Interesting to see if any potential form/runners coming from here again

It was a week ago on a bog track.
Wohler won it again but nothings coming from the race.

1st noms are out tomorrow at midday

seth

 

[PerthBoy87]

See link below for the 1st nominations for the 2015 Melbourne Cup:

http://www.horseracing.com.au/news/140-horses-in-2015-melbourne-cup-nominations/

 

[PerthBoy87]

140 nominations this year

 

[sethlad]

Ok,after a quick look its a strong group of internationals on paper.
But Im not sure too many will be getting here.

Godolphin have 10 nomd between O Shea & usual suspects,Aidan has 4 but 3 are 3yos who are all in St Leger market.
2 for Dermot,one which had his last start over hurdles.
Most of the Gold cup horses are nomd for what its worth.
Add the Japanese duo who are ready to go into quarantine.
Finally the warhorse Red Cadeaux is lining up for 5

seth

 

[TBellicious]

Will RC be too old?
Are the Japanese a class above?
Can Godolphin win in finally?

 

[plays tall 1]

The O'Brien 3year olds were a bit of a surprise. Would be great to see one of them make the trip and try to do a Mahler.

Some decent odds on Betfair for a few of Lloyd's roughies, but that stable can be a bit of a tease at this time of year with well credentialled internationals often not measuring up.

Gallante is a French group 1 winner. Was ordinary in his only run here, and looks an absolute wet tracker but $1000 on offer on Betfair!?! Will get enough weight to get in the race, surely. Hope to see him run this weekend and show something. Who knows, we might get a wet track for the Cup??

I thought Foundry's first up run was good. He's got good English form and showed a turn of foot to win over 1400m here. Stunk it up a bit in his last prep. Will probably need to win an exempt race to make the field, but he's capable of doing that on his better form and, if he does get in with 50kgs or so, he could be a factor. Some $170 available in Betfair.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Will RC be too old?
Are the Japanese a class above?
Can Godolphin win in finally?

RC was too old 2 years ago.
Yes
No, bunch of one paced handicappers, Hartnell and Sky Hunter the class but Hartnell would be lugging a bit of weight i'd suspect, although he would be a fair bit better off this time round 2miles without the services of T.Berry.

 

[iluvparis]

I still have a query re: Hartnell over the 3200 - well held in the Sydney Cup and from memory in his Royal Ascot win he looked like he was going to win by 3-4 lengths before completely tying up late to only just hold on.

 

[PerthBoy87]

I still have a query re: Hartnell over the 3200 - well held in the Sydney Cup and from memory in his Royal Ascot win he looked like he was going to win by 3-4 lengths before completely tying up late to only just hold on.

Hartnell won the Listed Queens Vase at Royal Ascot (3219m) in 2014 and as you said didn't win by much - 0.3 lengths. Can he run 3200m? Probably can, but can Hartnell run a rough and tumble 3200m of the Melbourne Cup?

 

[iluvparis]

Hartnell won the Listed Queens Vase at Royal Ascot (3219m) in 2014 and as you said didn't win by much - 0.3 lengths. Can he run 3200m? Probably can, but can Hartnell run a rough and tumble 3200m of the Melbourne Cup?

Yup - he was 2-3 lengths clear 300m to go and walked the last furlong.

 

[sethlad]

Syd cup run was too bad to be true (pulled up lame from memory) but cant remember the last horse to miss a place in syd cup then win a Melb cup in same year

seth

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Tom Berry running the Sydney Cup like it was the Newmarket probably didn't help Hartnell either.