Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Did Berry play?

Berry did play. At times showed some run and carry from the back half. But like the rest of the u17 side, didn't dominate.

 

[Knightmare]

I guess the difference is Hipwood was always getting drafted - it was a matter of where. Before this match, Chol was mentioned as a chance to get drafted, but (my read) more likely rookie. He did a fair bit to move himself into genuine draft calculations yesterday. Good on him.

I sat in a similar position regarding Chol going into the game.

I had Chol as probably but not certainly getting drafted.

After that game I think he deserves a position somewhere in the 2nd or 3rd round. Big improver and showed he can have an impact on a game and do some really freakish things for a tall guy. So there is something to work with.

 

[Cleric]

Hey Knightmare, how would you compare Weitering to Jake Lever? Keeping Levers knee out of it, just on talent and projected improvement.
Thx

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, how would you compare Weitering to Jake Lever? Keeping Levers knee out of it, just on talent and projected improvement.
Thx

Both can become among the best key defenders in the game.

Weitering is slightly bigger and stronger. Also his 1v1 and intercept marking game is also better again. Weitering has the better skills as someone who can kick it 60m and hit his targets lace out.

So Weitering is a deserving number one selection this year and gets the points in the comparison between the two.

And that may be the difference between being a best 1 or 2 key defender in the game (Weitering) and being a best 5 or so key defender in the game (Lever).

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Found a lot more of it than I gave him credit for it seems.

He took a couple of strong marks and did some solid inside work but surprised to hear he found that much of it.

Was v good inside and tackling was a feature , pretty non fuss . Didn't get much clear outside ball

 

[Knightmare]

Was v good inside and tackling was a feature , pretty non fuss . Didn't get much clear outside ball

I find contested ball winning particularly and those inside elements translate well to AFL play. So that's not something from a recruiting standpoint that really concerns me. It would be nice to have seen him do some damage on the outside, but that's more a bonus than a requirement in more for an inside type.

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

Is Milera capable of being anything like a Rioli or a Betts? Is there anyone who could fill a void to Coll small forwards? (Yarran from WA)?
If...and I mean if StK offered pick 5 (I know they will be stupid to do so) to Coll for pick 5, would Pies go best available or go for a Weidemen or a Curnow?

 

[Knightmare]

Is Milera capable of being anything like a Rioli or a Betts? Is there anyone who could fill a void to Coll small forwards? (Yarran from WA)?
If...and I mean if StK offered pick 5 (I know they will be stupid to do so) to Coll for pick 5, would Pies go best available or go for a Weidemen or a Curnow?

I don't quite see Milera as Rioli or Betts. Milera is terrific in his own right but by position and stylistically perhaps something more like a less explosive Steve Motlop as someone probably suited to playing a bit higher than Rioli and Betts.

Shane Yarran from WA isn't really a small forward. He is a terrific talent and can hit the scoreboard but probably doesn't fit the age profile or the type we'd be after.

As for a small forward solution for Collingwood. I don't feel any particular urgency to add anyone. But I'd look for someone in the rookie draft. Nick Dodge and Daniel Rioli as rookies would be suitable choices. Maybe Yestin Eades with his pace could push deeper into the front half. They'd be among the names on my shortlist.

In the strange and surprising scenario St Kilda lost their mind and dealt their first round selection to Collingwood, presumably in a move involving Freeman and other pieces. It is hard to say who Collingwood would go after.

It is thought that some clubs with early draft selections may be looking at Weideman, and while Collingwood need a young key forward I'm not convinced he is the guy with his production mild at best. Curnow on returning from injury in the second half of the season I expect to slide into at least the mid if not late first round range as someone who lost all athleticism. With training hopefully he gets that back, but he late season was just a 1v1 marking forward with limited mobility which just isn't enough for an undersized key forward.
It's hard to say who Collingwood would take at pick five. There just aren't any "Collingwood types" early draft. And by Collingwood types. Types that can win their own footy but then also have a special element to them.
If I had to guess. Maybe Balic or Tucker would early draft if Collingwood had a selection would be the targets.

But my expectation is that Collingwood move pick seven and do not gain St Kilda's first round selection, unless it is a part of a trade for Treloar.

 

[Gollo]

Knightmare, what's your opinion on the rookie list? To be honest, I would like to see it done away with, don't see any purpose for it or logical reason to keep it. Without it, a larger national draft can also be implemented.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, what's your opinion on the rookie list? To be honest, I would like to see it done away with, don't see any purpose for it or logical reason to keep it. Without it, a larger national draft can also be implemented.

It's an interesting question and it's an issue I could argue either way on.

In saying that my preference is that the rookie list is retained.

The rookie list is helpful because you can bring in a guy who is somewhat higher risk and have the ability to toss them after a year whereas in the national draft you draft guys, signing them to two year deals. As an example back in 2011 Waylon Manson was considered a draft chance. He didn't go on to get drafted. But given he was seen as someone who may struggle in an AFL club environment given the extreme culture change and new levels of professionalism required that he would as a 17/18 year old have absolutely no understanding of. It is ideal having the ability to sign someone like Waylon to a one year deal which gives him the opportunity to go home after the first year if things don't work out. Or sign him to a longer deal if things work out.

The in addition to the four normal rookie positions there are also the category B rookies. And this is where the strength of the rookie list really comes into play where it can allow AFL clubs to sign international talents or talents from other sports and bring them onto AFL lists, as a free shot. If there are only senior list positions. There would be no Mark Blicavs as someone from an alternative pathway and none of those Irish or American imports that have and continue to produce AFL relevant players.

So both the category A and B rookie lists have their merits and in my view anyway are worthwhile.

--
I see or at least hope the evolution of AFL lists goes a bit differently.

I'd love to see an AFL national minor league competition whereby all 18 clubs have their own 2s sides. And if a player is delisted or retires mid-season clubs should be able to directly sign players from their minor league teams onto the clubs list as replacements till seasons end on a kind of short term contract. Similarly with long term injuries I would be open to those players then having the ability to fill perhaps some kind of extra/injury slots on a team list which may open up in the scenario someone goes out for the season.

State league competitions then could go back to being state league competitions once again and those current high level state leaguers or those who just miss out on getting drafted could easily be developing on a clubs minor league list and receive AFL opportunities and become discovered talents that may otherwise not receive the opportunity with clubs perhaps with some older state leaguers looking more for a short term rental/injury replacement mid-season which also would keep those missing out each year through the draft system motivated which keeps moral and interest up, and a bit like with the category B rookie list just opens up that extra possibility to identify and develop talent to increase that talent pool more than otherwise would be the case.

--
In terms of rookie lists and list structure it comes down to what the priority of the AFL is.

My personal priority is expanding the talent pool with the intention of creating the best possible product at AFL level. And my ideals as such revolve mostly around that.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

With the talent search getting larger, surely team lists follow suit with 50 or more players the minimum and 5 players minimum drafted to each club academy and F/S excluded.

 

[Sellout Scully]

Do you think Matthew Allen (SA) and Davin Ferreira (NT) have a shot at being drafted?

 

[Knightmare]

With the talent search getting larger, surely team lists follow suit with 50 or more players the minimum and 5 players minimum drafted to each club academy and F/S excluded.

I'd have no issue with team lists increasing.

I'd like to see team benches raise from 4 to either 6 or 8 and if that move does in time get made that would be a great time to increase team lists.

I'd say senior and rookie lists combined. As long as you have the correct numbers to complete one AFL and reserves side. That is for me the correct number, so that on the odd occasion you have a full list that no one needs to miss games.

So if we get 6 interchange positions (24 players on matchday). I'd be open to a senior list of 44 with 4 rookies. Or if 8 interchange positions (26 on matchday). I'd be open to a senior list of 48 with 4 rookies. And so on along those lines.

Do you think Matthew Allen (SA) and Davin Ferreira (NT) have a shot at being drafted?

Both are definite draft chances. Both are at the national combine so five or more clubs nominated both which suggests they're at least considerations. Neither in my phantom draft at the moment. Though both could be and should be in some phantom drafts.

Ferreira playing at reserves and league level through the SANFL has performed well so he definitely is and should be in the mix.

Allen is a handy leadup marking tall forward. He is a one trick pony but is highly productive.

Both I'd say late-rookie probably more would be hoping to get drafted rather than earlier.

 

[Gollo]

It's an interesting question and it's an issue I could argue either way on.

In saying that my preference is that the rookie list is retained.

The rookie list is helpful because you can bring in a guy who is somewhat higher risk and have the ability to toss them after a year whereas in the national draft you draft guys, signing them to two year deals. As an example back in 2011 Waylon Manson was considered a draft chance. He didn't go on to get drafted. But given he was seen as someone who may struggle in an AFL club environment given the extreme culture change and new levels of professionalism required that he would as a 17/18 year old have absolutely no understanding of. It is ideal having the ability to sign someone like Waylon to a one year deal which gives him the opportunity to go home after the first year if things don't work out. Or sign him to a longer deal if things work out.

The in addition to the four normal rookie positions there are also the category B rookies. And this is where the strength of the rookie list really comes into play where it can allow AFL clubs to sign international talents or talents from other sports and bring them onto AFL lists, as a free shot. If there are only senior list positions. There would be no Mark Blicavs as someone from an alternative pathway and none of those Irish or American imports that have and continue to produce AFL relevant players.

So both the category A and B rookie lists have their merits and in my view anyway are worthwhile.

--
I see or at least hope the evolution of AFL lists goes a bit differently.

I'd love to see an AFL national minor league competition whereby all 18 clubs have their own 2s sides. And if a player is delisted or retires mid-season clubs should be able to directly sign players from their minor league teams onto the clubs list as replacements till seasons end on a kind of short term contract. Similarly with long term injuries I would be open to those players then having the ability to fill perhaps some kind of extra/injury slots on a team list which may open up in the scenario someone goes out for the season.

State league competitions then could go back to being state league competitions once again and those current high level state leaguers or those who just miss out on getting drafted could easily be developing on a clubs minor league list and receive AFL opportunities and become discovered talents that may otherwise not receive the opportunity with clubs perhaps with some older state leaguers looking more for a short term rental/injury replacement mid-season which also would keep those missing out each year through the draft system motivated which keeps moral and interest up, and a bit like with the category B rookie list just opens up that extra possibility to identify and develop talent to increase that talent pool more than otherwise would be the case.

--
In terms of rookie lists and list structure it comes down to what the priority of the AFL is.

My personal priority is expanding the talent pool with the intention of creating the best possible product at AFL level. And my ideals as such revolve mostly around that.

Some interesting points you made. On the possibility of a national AFL minor league, I feel that it would be way too high-maintenance to suffice as a minors league, considering the major player base would be mostly young. IMO, there would be off-the-charts numbers of homesick players, and low salaries for players wouldn't be most enticing. Also, I doubt revenue generated for the AFL would be large at all. Many have brought up this idea before but I don't see how it be any different than having all AFL clubs with an individual reserves side playing in state comps. They could utilise full affiliation of clubs' reserves sides and play them in state leagues, where each state league corporation would have control over the clubs. I do very much like the idea of sharing players over the AFL and reserves teams, and could present many benefits in lowering risk in drafting players and maximising the number of hidden gems that are unearthed.

On the rookie list, I get your point, and it's the prime example of why we have a rookie list, but IMO it could be done away with, and the AFL could allow contracts for draftees to be less committed should the club draft a high-risk player or a (now) Category B rookie. This would mean that there would be a clear path for all players on a club's list to be easily able to be selected for AFL games, rather than having a player on the LTI list.

 

[Knightmare]

Some interesting points you made. On the possibility of a national AFL minor league, I feel that it would be way too high-maintenance to suffice as a minors league, considering the major player base would be mostly young. IMO, there would be off-the-charts numbers of homesick players, and low salaries for players wouldn't be most enticing. Also, I doubt revenue generated for the AFL would be large at all. Many have brought up this idea before but I don't see how it be any different than having all AFL clubs with an individual reserves side playing in state comps. They could utilise full affiliation of clubs' reserves sides and play them in state leagues, where each state league corporation would have control over the clubs. I do very much like the idea of sharing players over the AFL and reserves teams, and could present many benefits in lowering risk in drafting players and maximising the number of hidden gems that are unearthed.

On the rookie list, I get your point, and it's the prime example of why we have a rookie list, but IMO it could be done away with, and the AFL could allow contracts for draftees to be less committed should the club draft a high-risk player or a (now) Category B rookie. This would mean that there would be a clear path for all players on a club's list to be easily able to be selected for AFL games, rather than having a player on the LTI list.

That would be exactly what would have to be weighted up with a minor league.

And you'd need to financially find a way for it to be viable for implementation to even be a consideration. You're absolutely right.

Perhaps the minor league teams can play directly before or directly after the seniors and revenues could be made through that avenue if fans decide to stay on/come early etc and payments could be made based on that kind of system.

It's one of those things where for me anyway, if financially a way can be created where it could work. I'd love just from a talent generation standpoint to see it happen as the reserves players don't have to waste their time against lesser state league competition. And those outside the AFL system can really through play v those AFL listed players prove more definitely that they belong at that level and deserve an opportunity whether it would be on a short in season contract or for a proper list position going into a new season.

 

[Finn9]

Hi Knightmare,
It's becoming more likely the Tigers could keep their first round pick, who do you think would be a nice fit around pick 12? Any small forwards/big bodied midfielders.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,
It's becoming more likely the Tigers could keep their first round pick, who do you think would be a nice fit around pick 12? Any small forwards/big bodied midfielders.

Clayton Oliver as a big bodied midfielder would be a great choice.

Callum Ah Chee as a small forward around 12 would be the popular choice.

 

[blueiris]

Do you see Brisbane picking Wietering if Carlton decided to go Schache at pick 1# or with Hipwood available in our Academy could you see Brisbane bid on Hopper or Mills at pick 2

 

[Chris25]

Allen is a handy leadup marking tall forward. He is a one trick pony but is highly productive.

Just on this, I'd say Allen's issue is the opposite. He's good at lots of things, but not great at any one thing. I think he goes earlier than expected though.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you see Brisbane picking Wietering if Carlton decided to go Schache at pick 1# or with Hipwood available in our Academy could you see Brisbane bid on Hopper or Mills at pick 2

I expect Carlton select Weitering.

In the surprising scenario Carlton select Schache, I anticipate Brisbane take Weitering and lose no sleep.

Weitering seems to be number one on most draft boards from what I can gather and with Brisbane's strong midfield group, Weitering makes more sense than Hopper, Mills or any other alternatives.

Hipwood and Weitering would be a great combination. If Brisbane can add those guys, Keays and maybe a Chol. That's a great draft day outcome.

Just on this, I'd say Allen's issue is the opposite. He's good at lots of things, but not great at any one thing. I think he goes earlier than expected though.

Other than taking marks on the lead what else does Allen do? That's his one and only trick from the 5-6 games of his I've watched.

 

[McCraeBF]

If Carlisle goes to the Blues and they can pick up a few backman from GWS dont you think they might go the forward??

 

[goodoldcats]

Geelong are likely to have about 8 picks that are last round in the draft.

Which players would you recommend if you are in geelongs position?

 

[Knightmare]

If Carlisle goes to the Blues and they can pick up a few backman from GWS dont you think they might go the forward??

Carlton are said to view Weitering as the best player in this draft.

Even if they are successful in adding Carlisle I still do believe they would take Weitering.

Two high level key defenders is better than just the one.

The likely outcome will be that Jaksch gets pushed into the front half if Carlisle is as assumed is pushed back.

In the short term. Casboult and Jaksch will suffice in the absense of Henderson who much of the time was injured anyway.

If Carlton are desperate they can always add a Mitch Brown late draft as a more immediate key forward. But with Carlton rebuilding. Short term needs/competitiveness presumably are not a priority.

Geelong are likely to have about 8 picks that are last round in the draft.

Which players would you recommend if you are in geelongs position?

Geelong will find a way not to need to take so many picks. The other option is to have just the 38 senior listed players and the rest rookies.

As for some worthwhile late draft selections. Daniel Capiron, Tom Phillips, Kade Answerth and Nicholas Coughlan are some overagers who could represent value. Christopher Jansen from the SANFL may be worth a shot. Michael Hartley as a key defender if available late. They're probably among the names I recommend and all would fit suitably as list fits.

 

[Davo-27]

Gary Buckenara who has been one of the main recruiters at Hawthorn from 2004-2015 has this as his top 10

1. Jacob Weidering
2. Josh Schache
3. Kieran Collins
4. Aaron Francis
5. Darcy Parrish
6. Jacob Hopper
7. Darcy Tucker
8. Sam Weideman
9. Charlie Curnow
10. Rhys Mathieson

what are your thoughts on this? seeing as he was a recruiter til July when he took the job at "The Recruit" TV Show.....

 

[Howard Moon]

Gary Buckenara who has been one of the main recruiters at Hawthorn from 2004-2015 has this as his top 10

1. Jacob Weidering
2. Josh Schache
3. Kieran Collins
4. Aaron Francis
5. Darcy Parrish
6. Jacob Hopper
7. Darcy Tucker
8. Sam Weideman
9. Charlie Curnow
10. Rhys Mathieson

what are your thoughts on this? seeing as he was a recruiter til July when he took the job at "The Recruit" TV Show.....

cleary dosent rate midfielders.