Analysis Speculation best team in 2016: List & depth analysis

[Mr Peabody]

That is why Way to go post was so good. It is easy to make a judgement based on anecdotal fan based observations.

Stats can be distorting too though. Those you listed are all intra club comparisons. Our forward line and offensiveness has been found wanting for some time now so a range of stats comparing them doesn't do it for me. Maybe a comparison to other teams' forwards might be more useful if looking at stats.
For me, I keep it simple. He doesn't kick enough goals in a team that doesn't kick enough goals.

 

[Rion]

Surely now's the year to at least try giving the younger, classier guys a look in ahead of the foot-soldiers. Mayne gives you the effort but on the basis of the last 2 years the offensive output is seriously lacking. Guys like Yarran, Crozier and Weller can get better defensively but doesn't look atm that Mayne can get any better offensively (2013 notwithstanding).

 

[ydraw]

Outside of Pav, who else in the team regularly bangs them from outside 50 anyway? Hardly seems like anything to worry about IMO.

The guy competing with Mayne for that position - Hayden Crozier - is a beautiful, long kick for goal both from set shots and on the snap.

 

[ydraw]

That is why Way to go post was so good. It is easy to make a judgement based on anecdotal fan based observations.

This is what he put up:

Here are Mayne's stats for 2015:

• Best defensive fwd with 5.5 tackles/game (Balla next with 3.9 tackles/game)
• Best disposal efficiency of any fwd with 77.7% (Pav next with 67.5%)
• Lowest clangers of any fwd with 1.2/game
• Most marks of any fwd with 4.9/game
• Best free kick differential of 218% (Walters almost the same though, then under par for the rest - poor Pav)
• 2nd most goal assists of any fwd with 0.6/game (Pav best with 0.9/game)
• 2nd most marks inside 50 with 1.5/game
• 2nd best goal accuracy with 57.1% (Walters best with 57.9%)
• 3rd best scorer with 1.3 goals/game (Walters best with 2 goals/game)

These stats aren't really proof of anything though except that Mayne spends more time inside 50m than anyone except Pav. There's nobody like for like to compare him with since nobody else has played his position this year.

 

[salim malik]

The guy competing with Mayne for that position - Hayden Crozier - is a beautiful, long kick for goal both from set shots and on the snap.

The knock on Crosier pre his draft was that he doesn't get enough of the ball. Thats still his problem.

 

[meima]

The knock on Crosier pre his draft was that he doesn't get enough of the ball. Thats still his problem.

Play him Mayne role no improvement , option trade.

 

[salim malik]

Play him Mayne role no improvement , option trade.

Maybe neither Mayne or Crosier will play.

 

[meima]

Maybe neither Mayne or Crosier will play.

Yes , then Yarran can play.

 

[salim malik]

Yes , then Yarran can play.

 

[wayToGo_]

I am as excited to see SY out there as the next person but also don't want to set too high expectations on a person we only drafted a week ago. Sounds like he is in good shape based on yours and others' training reports, just hoping he has his tank close to AFL level. Guess we'll know more after the time trial on Wednesday isn't it? And if he isn't up to scratch I guess we'll know what his #1 activity between now and the NAB cup will be. Have a good feeling he is going to make it - he's been given a gift and he'll respect the hell out of it.

 

[Dockernut]

Play him Mayne role no improvement , option trade.

What relation to say this? Option trade Mayne play no?

 

[meima]

What relation to say this? Option trade Mayne play no?

Crozier not mayne, also who really want mayne? Vic club will not want mayne.

 

[Unique Name]

That is why Way to go post was so good. It is easy to make a judgement based on anecdotal fan based observations.

This is what he put up:

Here are Mayne's stats for 2015:

• Best defensive fwd with 5.5 tackles/game (Balla next with 3.9 tackles/game)
• Best disposal efficiency of any fwd with 77.7% (Pav next with 67.5%)
• Lowest clangers of any fwd with 1.2/game
• Most marks of any fwd with 4.9/game
• Best free kick differential of 218% (Walters almost the same though, then under par for the rest - poor Pav)
• 2nd most goal assists of any fwd with 0.6/game (Pav best with 0.9/game)
• 2nd most marks inside 50 with 1.5/game
• 2nd best goal accuracy with 57.1% (Walters best with 57.9%)
• 3rd best scorer with 1.3 goals/game (Walters best with 2 goals/game)

We're not defending Mayne based on anything other than (comparative) statistics. Stats aren't the only thing a players assessment should be based on but often they provide a far more accurate insight than a fan's opinion watching from a grand stand or in front of a screen. The stats I provided are also not from one or two games, they are aggregates over the entire season so are a much fairer representation than a handful of anecdotes about why a player is useless or a superstar.

My argument is not whether Mayne could have been better (I agree he could have been better), it's that there are a bunch of other players in our forward line who should perhaps be tapped on the shoulder to take a break before him. And likewise any incoming player should have to prove they are going to deliver equivalent or better outputs before taking one of the existing forwards places. Balla only averaged 1 goal/game (yes injuries blah blah) and Crozier 0.6 goals/game (yes he was a sub a lot I know) but by your same assessment they are well below standard and should be dropped surely? No of course not, you have to look at what other value they bring. Unfortunately for them Mayne was statistically better with pretty much everything else last season and the countless excuses can only make up for so much.

We had 8 players in 2015 that played in the forward line.





That Mayne was our third highest goal scorer should not be a surprise, he played 7 more games than our next forward. But he also had an average of 1.3 goals per game (Our third highest) which does account for games played.

To account for the sub games I thought it would be best to go off time on ground stats and do an 'average goals per 100mins of game time'.




Mayne again is still has the third highest average but it is somewhat closer. (A small note, in the GWS game Griffin took a mark in the goal square but was unable to take the shot due to blood rule, D Pearce actually took the kick and kicked it into the man on the mark. If Griff had kicked the goal he would have had the third highest average.)

To me though my opinion can't be backed up by stats. Mayne has played over 150 games of AFL and is in the prime of his career, he is an elite pressure forward but he isn't capable of hitting the scoreboard consistently and hasn't been for two seasons now, he needs to go back to Peel to sort out his kicking. I can deal with inconsistencies with out younger players (Tabs, Crozier) because that's part of developing youth. What annoys me is experienced players (100 games+) that regularly let us down. To me Mayne's miss in the PF from 30m out in front swung the momentum and killed us. I'm hoping Yarran was drafted as a upgrade on Mayne.

 

[freoextra]

We had 8 players in 2015 that played in the forward line.


View attachment 196828


That Mayne was our third highest goal scorer should not be a surprise, he played 7 more games than our next forward. But he also had an average of 1.3 goals per game (Our third highest) which does account for games played.

To account for the sub games I thought it would be best to go off time on ground stats and do an 'average goals per 100mins of game time'.

View attachment 196833


Mayne again is still has the third highest average but it is somewhat closer. (A small note, in the GWS game Griffin took a mark in the goal square but was unable to take the shot due to blood rule, D Pearce actually took the kick and kicked it into the man on the mark. If Griff had kicked the goal he would have had the third highest average.)

To me though my opinion can't be backed up by stats. Mayne has played over 150 games of AFL and is in the prime of his career, he is an elite pressure forward but he isn't capable of hitting the scoreboard consistently and hasn't been for two seasons now, he needs to go back to Peel to sort out his kicking. I can deal with inconsistencies with out younger players (Tabs, Crozier) because that's part of developing youth. What annoys me is experienced players (100 games+) that regularly let us down. To me Mayne's miss in the PF from 30m out in front swung the momentum and killed us. I'm hoping Yarran was drafted as a upgrade on Mayne.

Interesting stats but I would also point out that Pav and Fyfe have both failed miserably in a finals game in front of the goals.

Just saying to put some perspective into all the Mayne hate lately!

Mayne has missed a couple of sitters in the last two years and the one you refer to was a chuck the pie to the ground moment. However, In that very good year he showed that outstanding effort can lead to outstanding results. Why does the majority now think he can't get back to his best??

I will also not pursue Sheridan to the ends of the earth due to his one dropped Mark.

 

[Unique Name]

Pav and Fyfe have both have failed miserably in a finals game in front of the goals.

Just saying to put some perspective into all the Mayne hate lately!

I will also not pursue Sheridan to the ends of the earth due to his one dropped Mark.

But that was one of my points, I can deal with Sheridan's dropped mark because he is still a young developing player. What's Mayne's excuse for missing from 30m out in front?

Pav has kicked 12 goals in our last 7 finals, Fyfe (A midfielder) has kicked 5 in our last 7 finals, Mayne has only kicked 4 goals in out last 7 finals so I'm not sure what you're on about there.

 

[meima]

But that was one of my points, I can deal with Sheridan's dropped mark because he is still a young developing player. What's Mayne's excuse for missing from 30m out in front?

Pav has kicked 12 goals in our last 7 finals, Fyfe (A midfielder) has kicked 5 in our last 7 finals, Mayne has only kicked 4 goals in out last 7 finals so I'm not sure what you're on about there.

Can't agree more, also what wrong if we try other player in his role to put some pressure on him to be better, if he perform well with peel then he will get selected eventually due to current form not history stats .

 

[freoextra]

But that was one of my points, I can deal with Sheridan's dropped mark because he is still a young developing player. What's Mayne's excuse for missing from 30m out in front?

Pav has kicked 12 goals in our last 7 finals, Fyfe (A midfielder) has kicked 5 in our last 7 finals, Mayne has only kicked 4 goals in out last 7 finals so I'm not sure what you're on about there.

Does Mayne need an excuse?????? In that case, what was the excuse for Ballas and Pav's grand final performance??? And what is Fyes excuse for the shots on goal he took at the gf. I don't think any of them need an excuse.

A friend of mine sees Pavlich as our biggest failure because, in his view, whenever the game is on the line he fails. I don't see it that way, l also saw Ballas having a poor year but I don't think he or Mayne will be passed over for round one next year.

Mayne and Ballas have played at an elite level for this club in the past and I reckon they can again.

 

[freoextra]

Can't agree more, also what wrong if we try other player in his role to put some pressure on him to be better, if he perform well with peel then he will get selected eventually due to current form not history stats .

Don't disagree with this but think Mayne and Ballas have a fair few credits in the bank with the coach. But I agree that the coach could drop more players that are struggling than he does. He just seems to love having a settled team.

 

[couldhavebeen]

I get a little frustrated reading posts about how good Crozier is as opposed to Mayne .
Mayne has held his position in the team because we have not had a player better than him in the role that RTB has used . He retains his position because of his defensive role and the way he is able to put pressure on the defenders he has played against its that simple . He can also go back and play in defense when the team has needed him .
Those pushing for Crozier to take his place are misguided and are looking through rose coloured glasses . Crozier doesn't have his strength or mongrel in him to do the same job that Mayne does . Crozier is a forward pocket player that is evasive and quick in tight spaces . He has lightning reflexes and snaps goals . His problem is that we have Ballas and Walters ahead of him . With the recruitment of Yarran we now have a genuine CFF and 2nd tall that will kick goals who may push Mayne on to the HFF where he can be very damaging and harder for opposition back men .

 

[theGav56]

I hope every player we draft is an upgrade and I am sure Yarran was not drafted to go into development mode for the next couple of seasons. If he is good enough he will get a chance. Crozier failed to seize his opportunity this year, but may get another. Perhaps Wellers fitness will have hit the markers required. I am quite happy for Mayne to be pushed out by an upgrade.

 

[Mr Peabody]

He retains his position because of his defensive role and the way he is able to put pressure on the defenders he has played against its that simple. He can also go back and play in defense when the team has needed him .

I agree that this has been his role. But in the position he plays, he needs to kick goals to retain his spot. Same with Ballantyne. This is an old article but the following quote still underscores the mentality amongst our forwards:-

Ballantyne said he would hold his place by concentrating on his tackling pressure rather than goal tallies.
"That's what I am not rated on, kicking goals" he said.

The defensive stuff is great but it should not take priority over an offensive mindset. Forwards should be primarily training and thinking about presenting, crumbling and kicking goals. They should be rated on and be accountable for these elements ahead of defence or at least equally thereto. Same with Mayne claiming he prefers to tackle 10 times in a game rather than kick a bag of goals - as one of our key forwards, that should not be his prime focus as results have proven this to be the wrong mentality. Surely RTB can see that a shift in philosophy is required.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/afl/a/21316106/ballantynes-goal-to-lift-defensive-pressure/

 

[Alfonz]

Rather than thinking about how to replace Mayne, we should be thinking about how to return Mayne to his form from 2012/2013. Season 2014 was horrible for Mayne, playing injured and a terrible output. Then last year, despite all the bagging, he at least got better. Part of the way towards his old form. Why can't there can be more improvement next year?

A big part of his best output was a high conversion rate, kicking 37.12 and 39.7. Something has obviously happened, but the coaching staff should be trying to fix what happened. His ability to be accurate shouldn't have completely evaporated. A few tweaks here and there, and Mayne could easily be good for 35 goals next year. That's still a valuable player.

Hawthorn and WC kicked 225-230 goals from their 5 main forwards. We are miles off this. We need to be aiming for 200 goals from our main forwards. We can get 80-90 from the short people and 50-60 from KPF. Still leaves another 50-70 from somewhere, and if you chuck Mayne out, I don't know where they come from. I think we need both Mayne AND Yarran playing and kicking 30 odd goals each. Thinking that Fyfe and Bennell can take up the slack shouldn't come into it. Need to get a big chunk of goals from actual forwards, and then whatever the mids deliver is a bonus on top of that. Shouldn't be relying on mids to kick all our goals.

 

[meima]

Anywhere 2016 freo won't be a settle side due to Pav age I think he will play limited game with rest to assure if we made it to final he is in top shape. The reason I am pushing other player for Mayne role is due to his value in trade table, we all know mayne ,suban ,deboer ,d.Pearce not many club want to look at them, after 2016 we will again give up our draft pick but nobody want to trade with us .in addition all our star player one year older (mundy and Barlow) and pav might retire.

 

[wayToGo_]

Hawthorn and WC kicked 225-230 goals from their 5 main forwards. We are miles off this. We need to be aiming for 200 goals from our main forwards. We can get 80-90 from the short people and 50-60 from KPF. Still leaves another 50-70 from somewhere, and if you chuck Mayne out, I don't know where they come from. I think we need both Mayne AND Yarran playing and kicking 30 odd goals each. Thinking that Fyfe and Bennell can take up the slack shouldn't come into it. Need to get a big chunk of goals from actual forwards, and then whatever the mids deliver is a bonus on top of that. Shouldn't be relying on mids to kick all our goals.

Liking your thinking - I think these kinds of expectations would be realistic:

• Walters 44 goals (2 g/g on par with 2015)
• Pavlich 40 goals (1.8 g/g on par with 2015)
• Mayne 35 goals (1.6 g/g up from 1.3 g/g in 2015, < 2013,2012 form)
• Balla 35 goals (1.6 g/g up from 1 g/g in 2015, < 2014 form)
• Yarran 35 goals (1.6 g/g)
• TOTAL 189 goals (~8.6 g/g)

It's a very short forward line but it's very dynamic - and at least we know they have all scored those kinds of numbers before at AFL level (except SY). You add in a tall to make up the 6 - Griffin/Tabs/Apeness and expect them to get at least a goal a game and we are getting the kind of output we need from our forward line. Not sure we'll go in with a forward line that short but otherwise I'm not sure we have any talls that can produce anything close to these kinds of numbers at AFL level. So we'd be taking a gamble by playing them and more than likely reducing our scoreboard impact whilst they develop (but maybe we should take the hit for long term gain?).

 

[Scham]

Mayne had limitations as a player when we drafted him, and he's battled and worked hard to get the best out of himself over his career. Other than 2012/13 which were the exception rather than the rule, he's just been trier. But as of today he's our first choice third tall forward, and he'll remain that until such time as a Crozier, Balic or Yarran proves that they can play the role better.