February Daily Punt - Summer rubbish almost over

[FallingLiefs]

40 minutes is definitely 10 mins too long if you're on course. if sky demand volume i would honestly be starting some meets 1.5 hours earlier and some 1 hour later. 7 races in 3 hours.

 

[yaco55]

I am worried about the hype surrounding Winx - There is no way she is unbeatable and this is from someone who backed her in the Cox Plate - It will be an interesting two months.

 

[terminators]

2.00pm Melb
2.05pm NSW Prov
2.10pm Adelaide
2.15pm Sydney
2.20pm Vic Prov
2.25pm Brisbane
2.30pm Melb


One of NSW Prov and Vic Prov to go to SR2 when WA kicks off. Maybe they can start earlier so the meeting is mainly covered. All other meetings can be on SR2.

Either way there are 6 slots. 2 for Vic and NSW, 1 QLD, 1 SA. WA to own a NSW/Vic slot after they kick off. s**t if it got too messy you could dump the Vic and NSW Prov slots to SR2 and WA / Gold Coast could have them.

 

[Main Man]

I am worried about the hype surrounding Winx - There is no way she is unbeatable and this is from someone who backed her in the Cox Plate - It will be an interesting two months.

She is unbeatable if she runs to her Cox Plate performance, thats a big if though as it was a long way superior to what she had done up to that point.

Even though she is not normally a great trialer I thought her last one was only fair, interesting to see how she comes back, I hope she goes on with it.

Wales goes around as fav in the Hobart Cup, says more about the opposition than the horse himself, not overly confident but should be a good chance on his best form.

 

[iluvparis]

Yup. If Winx reproduces her Cox Plate form she's not losing.

Let's see if she's more So You Think or Protectionist

 

[Main Man]

Pride of Dubai retired, sensible from the owners, won two of the weaker 2yo G1s in the last 5-6 years, I doubt he would have gone close to winning another significant race.

Exosphere apparently trialed very well this morning again, can't wait to see him back.

 

[iluvparis]

Wonder what ultimate target they have in mind for Exosphere given he's turned it up horribly twice on the big day.

If he were mine I'd be keeping him to 3yo company and trying to go undefeated this prep before sending him to stud.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Wonder what ultimate target they have in mind for Exosphere given he's turned it up horribly twice on the big day.

If he were mine I'd be keeping him to 3yo company and trying to go undefeated this prep before sending him to stud.

TJ smith no doubt. the "big day" thing doesn't bother me in the slightest would have thought the golden rose was the main goal last campaign. is there even a 3yo g1 sprint in the championswamps?

 

[iluvparis]

Nah don't think there is any G1 3yo sprints - not that I can think of anyway.

Even if the Golden Rose was the main goal last year he still has shown the propensity to throw in at least one shocker each prep so far.

Will be interesting to see how he measures up against older horses - hopefully Press Statement runs in the Orr to give us a bit of a guide.

 

[Main Man]

In fairness to Exosphere his failures on the big days have both had potential excuses, cardiac arrhythmia in the Slipper and the track being a disgrace Derby Day, that along with the fact that the ass completely fell out of the Goldolphin stable in the Spring means I'm happy to forgive him, his best form put him up there with Chautaqua as the best in the country, he is also ahead of where Chautaqua was at the same point in their careers.

 

[iluvparis]

I'll pay the Slipper run but even given the track on Derby Day his run was very very average for a horse of his supposed ability. There's also his debut run to consider where he was again, awful.

I'm generally reluctant to give horses praise for their wins and then give them excuses every time they lose. The really really good horses generally don't need those excuses.

 

[Main Man]

Yes but even the good horses have bad runs, most top line horses only end up with a 50% win strike rate through their career.

I blame Oshea for his run in the Coolmore as much as I do the track, as I said the ass fell out of the stable and I think he made the mistake in going to the Coolmore instead of the Guineas, I think he was over the top by the time he got to the race.

Anyway we will know how good he is by the end of this campaign.

 

[iluvparis]

Fair call - O'Shea can only be a negative for the horses potential

 

[FallingLiefs]

fairly reasonable set of nominations in both states

i challenge you to find the 6 emergencies in the Orr. definitely going to be 1 or 2 unlucky ones without scratchings. no way they send round press statement....

 

[iluvparis]

Cortsens horses obvious emergencies

#leonplz

 

[rideclutch]

I'm generally reluctant to give horses praise for their wins and then give them excuses every time they lose. The really really good horses generally don't need those excuses.

100% with you bro (not always a good recipe).

I have no doubt he's as good as people say he is, just a little bit over the hype for a horse that's disappointed a few times now. He'd wanna get it done this prep.

As for Press Statement I reckon he'd wanna have found a fair few lengths - which he may have, but I'd be happy to oppose before I saw it.

 

[iluvparis]

Pretty sure Gee Gee's Top Notch should have threatened that Waller winner then - jockey completely missed the boat and got shuffled a mile back from the 800-300, hand no clear room and jock only really got stuck into it into the last 100m (also went for a bath in the ring).

Heavily backed Waller-Olly fave got a dream run 4th the fence.

 

[iluvparis]

FFS how did Gee Gees not just put that race completely to bed - standard back-to-back seconds

Fair effort from the caller to completely miss the heavily backed fave breaking down too

 

[FallingLiefs]

FFS how did Gee Gees not just put that race completely to bed - standard back-to-back seconds

Fair effort from the caller to completely miss the heavily backed fave breaking down too

pity i really like Quick Strike thought he was in for a very nice prep next time in been stuck with him since about his 5th start. i completely missed it aswell, last i saw it was travelling like the winner.

 

[iluvparis]

Looked pretty bad unfortunately - went crazy and bucking wildly as if it was a broken back,

 

[FallingLiefs]

Looked pretty bad unfortunately - went crazy and bucking wildly as if it was a broken back,

already paying back last week's hot streak. 0-5 and 2 deaths in last 5 win bets

 

[iluvparis]

Did you also back the Panthers?

 

[Jugada]

Looking forward to seeing Isla Bonita out here, hopefully the weather stays fine this year

 

[rideclutch]

Yeah he has some serious formlines, will take beating in any of the features.

 

[iluvparis]

Speaking of the Japanese - saw a Caulfield Cup replay on Racing.com today - really is laughable how much hype that Fame Game run got - was bog average.