Analysis "You don't defend, you don't play."

[Janus]

"They're leaking, you don't know where! Fix it! Don't scream, make faces, all that bullshit! Fix it!" - Any Given Sunday

If you were to ask me "What went wrong in 2015?" I could probably give you a number of banal theories. No team care, no hardness around the contest, no gut running for team mates. But the one factor I would point to is the lack of defence in the midfield. Ken Hinkley's mantra has always been "You don't defend, you don't play", but in 2015 it seemed that this statement was only paid lip service as time and again we set up to win stoppages only to have our opponents waltz through our laughable "defence" when things didn't go according to plan. In fact, it wasn't just stoppages - all over the ground, our defending was so deplorable that we couldn't generate the turnovers that are the number one generation of scoring opportunities for teams in the AFL.

In the 2016 AFL Prospectus, Champion Data introduced a new metric or measurement - Ball Movement. This basically tracked how good a team was at creating goals from the quality of their possession. Hawthorn led the way with +40% over the league average in attack and +32% over the league average in defence. You want to know where Port Adelaide ranked? -3% for attack, +12% for defence. The sides that finished top four in the home and away - Sydney (+44%), West Coast (+36%), Fremantle (+35%) and Hawthorn all posted defensive ball movement stats that were miles ahead of the next best team, which was us, then Geelong with 9%. What does that tell us? It tells us that attack generated by defence and the subsequent turnovers is going to be infinitely more successful then rolling the dice and running forward of a clearance - which is how we were caught on the break a lot last year.

At a centre bounce, our movement was +20% over the league average. Our defence? A dismal 0%! Compare that to Hawthorn - the premier and who we beat twice when we were actually switched on - and they had +41% in attack and +42% in defence. Again, this shows how defence first generates the space required to attack. Instead of trying to force the issue and allowing other teams to counter attack on the break, the solution was to slow the play down, as Hawthorn does, retain possession and ensure that we always have players on the defensive side of stoppages. Having a defensive mindset also means valuing the ball when you have it and not attacking for the hell of it - our players should of always be mindful of their position on the field and whether the reward outweighs the risk enough when taking a chance on cutting through the congestion.

This is why you'll always hear Ken speaking about how we're improving on our defence - and why I don't rate teams like the Bulldogs. If we want to win a flag, we need to find that extra 20% when defending. And defending isn't a natural talent - it just requires tenacity and toughness. That's why bringing in Bassett and bringing back Hocking into a full time role is so important to the side. We find that extra 20% and go to elite, top four defence...and I promise you, the losses last year to Fremantle, Brisbane, Carlton, Sydney, Adelaide and West Coast don't happen.

You don't defend, you don't play. Well, if we don't defend, we won't win. I've got a feeling that mantra is going to be lived by the players this year. The other thing they mentioned about Port in the prospectus was the fact that we are mirroring closely the fortunes of Geelong 2005-2011...but then so did Carlton at one stage. The difference was that Carlton just expected things to happen, whereas Geelong made it happen. If we expect thing to happen, if our players expect someone else to shepherd when they won't do the same, then we're going to fold.

That's not what we're about. And that's why I'm supremely confident this year. Everyone is writing us off, but at Port Adelaide we write our own ******* praises.

 

[DaTBird187]

You don't defend, you don't play. Well, if we don't defend, we won't win. I've got a feeling that mantra is going to be lived by the players this year. The other thing they mentioned about Port in the prospectus was the fact that we are mirroring closely the fortunes of Geelong 2005-2011...but then so did Carlton at one stage. The difference was that Carlton just expected things to happen, whereas Geelong made it happen. If we expect thing to happen, if our players expect someone else to shepherd when they won't do the same, then we're going to fold.

That was last years attitude from some. To get a repeat would be more than disappointing, it would be downright galling. The fans are angry, the coach is angry, the CEO and President are angry, let's hope the players are just as angry. Judgement day is at hand.

 

[Tibbs]

Good analysis. I do feel that recognizing the problem is the the vital first step, but equally important is recognizing WHY we crashed so badly in 2015 in this regard! You mention one clear probable cause:

If we expect thing to happen, if our players expect someone else to shepherd when they won't do the same, then we're going to fold....

I wonder was it in combination with some other factors, ie:
*Coaching deficiencies - We have changed coaching personnel with some coaches moved on. Did the club identify some issues that needed fixing there. Bassett and Hocking coming in look quite significant in this regards - as you mention.
*Key injuries - Out of our control, but we didnt handle it well as a team for 3/4 of the season!
*Other????

I would hope the club/coaches have put the finger on this early in the preseason, and done everything in their power to turn it around. If so, and like you I am confident they have, then we are going to kick some serious butt in '16

 

[Adam Marrett23]

Great analysis.

From now it's on the players, their well prepared, nearly all of them have done all the pre season which is great news. They've got elite fitness staff and great coaches around them, now it's on them.

The failure of last year should be burning inside all of them, plus the last month or so they should have picked up that it's us against the rest where in our history we are at our best, now it's their turn to add another chapter to our great history.

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

when you take a look at all this changes from last year, its hard to see us not significantly improving.
Bassett and Hocking into coaching fold.
Chad Cornes being a club champion coming in.
Dixon, Wines and Polec...im hoping to add Fat Jimmy too this list too.
Another year of muscles on our young list
Vlad the strength coach

Last year i expected it to happen, but this year i believe it will happen.

But on the flip side, other teams are also going to rise.

Geelong recruited very well
Collingwood recruited very well
Gold coast will have a much improved list
Fremantle added a potential gun (Bennell)
Hawks will be hawks
Richmond are still rising

Then there are the annual unknowns
Bulldogs
North melbourne

So as much as i think we will play outstanding footy, i think a few other clubs may be able to match it.

gonna be a huge year....bring on the footy.

 

[BIG BILLY F]

No excuses now

 

[Macca19]

Janus goes bang again!

Turnovers was the real killer for us last year. Our skills were the one thing that Hinkley noted we needed to improve on at the end of 2014 and we didnt at all, arguably got worse. You can't compete with the likes of Hawthorn over the course of a whole season if your skill level isn't up to standard. Fix the skills and we will be half way there.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Those 3 or 4 games in the first half of the year where we were kicking at 51%-53% efficiency and the 3 other ones against cellar dwellers where we weren't switched on, is what killed us last season. Defence first footy means you have to be switched on. Poor skills is part mental, part physical and part opposition playing better than us.

 

[BIG BILLY F]

We lost to Carlton and Brisbane......


CARLTON & BRISBANE....unbelievable...

Cant afford those losses this season

 

[ScooterBrother]

Excellent post Janus.

Only thing I would add is "turnovers that are the number one generation of scoring opportunities for teams in the AFL" is a two way street, in that Port need to force more out of their opponent, but also make fewer themselves.

The often repeated mantra last year of "be brave, take risks, take the play on" fell apart when teams covered the switch and clogged the corridor. Port need to learn how to shift the ball effectively without relying solely on open space and uncontested possession on the fat side wing.

Hopefully the additions of Polec and Toumpas will enable more breaking of lines and a big get-out-of-jail-free-card-kick-long-marking-option in Charlie Dixon will provide this.

 

[OneGreatClub]

The addition of Mladen and having Ollie back and Sam Gray and AhChee should build some toughness and persistence. I hope Butch gets some games. He brings a certain element. I want teams to fear us not just for our speed and our skills but for our physicality (within the rules of course )

 

[Peck]

Great post Janus.

I just want to add that having a great defence allows freedom to take risks - for example attacking the corridor. As you will be able to minimise the risk without sacrificing the reward.

This IMO is what made Geelong so formidable. They flooded back a lot but when attacking they took massive risks to ensure the highest possible chance of scoring. This is quite different to a side like collingwood or sydney who took fewer risks but made less mistakes. I think both are very strong strategies, but the key ingredient is to put pressure on your opponent, whether that be through forcing mistakes, or by not making them yourself.

Personally I favour forcing mistakes because it is more entertaining!

 

[malcheski]

Great post Janus.

I just want to add that having a great defence allows freedom to take risks - for example attacking the corridor. As you will be able to minimise the risk without sacrificing the reward.

This IMO is what made Geelong so formidable. They flooded back a lot but when attacking they took massive risks to ensure the highest possible chance of scoring. This is quite different to a side like collingwood or sydney who took fewer risks but made less mistakes. I think both are very strong strategies, but the key ingredient is to put pressure on your opponent, whether that be through forcing mistakes, or by not making them yourself.

Personally I favour forcing mistakes because it is more entertaining!

Its why Geelong were so successful for so long. The high risk, high reward game plan cannot work unless you are prepared to defend.

Adding pressure around the stoppages, pressuring the ball carrier and forcing turnovers is great (see Fremantle) however the biggest pressure of all is scoreboard pressure. If you can't turn your defense into a score then you will never win come finals.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

 

[Janus]

If I was to use an analogy - and it being so close to Valentine's Day I find this kind of apt - if football is a relationship with your significant other, attack is all the stuff you love to do...the things that draw her to you in the first place. The sense of adventure, the bravado, the risk taking.

Defense is the things she loves to do that you don't really like but you do because she is your wife/girlfriend/partner...the things that make her stay. The security, the tenderness, the peace of mind.

Defense is what makes the difference between a one night (or season) stand with the girl of your dreams, and living happily ever after with her. You can have one or the other...but it's far better to have both.

 

[OneGreatClub]

If I was to use an analogy - and it being so close to Valentine's Day I find this kind of apt - if football is a relationship with your significant other, attack is all the stuff you love to do...the things that draw her to you in the first place. The sense of adventure, the bravado, the risk taking.

Defense is the things she loves to do that you don't really like but you do because she is your wife/girlfriend/partner...the things that make her stay. The security, the tenderness, the peace of mind.

Defense is what makes the difference between a one night (or season) stand with the girl of your dreams, and living happily ever after with her. You can have one or the other...but it's far better to have both.

poetry in motion

 

[edgie]

If I was to use an analogy - and it being so close to Valentine's Day I find this kind of apt - if football is a relationship with your significant other, attack is all the stuff you love to do...the things that draw her to you in the first place. The sense of adventure, the bravado, the risk taking.

Defense is the things she loves to do that you don't really like but you do because she is your wife/girlfriend/partner...the things that make her stay. The security, the tenderness, the peace of mind.

Defense is what makes the difference between a one night (or season) stand with the girl of your dreams, and living happily ever after with her. You can have one or the other...but it's far better to have both.

My significant other has excellent defense. Almost impenetrable at times.

 

[R_Gray_Jnr_Jnr]

If I was to use an analogy - and it being so close to Valentine's Day I find this kind of apt - if football is a relationship with your significant other, attack is all the stuff you love to do...the things that draw her to you in the first place. The sense of adventure, the bravado, the risk taking.

Defense is the things she loves to do that you don't really like but you do because she is your wife/girlfriend/partner...the things that make her stay. The security, the tenderness, the peace of mind.

Defense is what makes the difference between a one night (or season) stand with the girl of your dreams, and living happily ever after with her. You can have one or the other...but it's far better to have both.

Are PAFC aware that this Janus guy exists. I think they need to put him on the payroll as motivational speaker or something along those lines.

I have no idea what happened last year, we clearly had the ability to perform but it is my opinion that our poor results stemmed from lack of mental fortitude and poor psychological composure particularly with the high expectations that were placed on a group of young lads.

Surely this Janus lad can go in a speak to the boys, or even chat with Kenny every now and then and put some of his ideas and plans around game play and how to stay mentally strong to them to see if they can utilise any of it.

 

[AlbertonBloke]

Janus goes bang again!

Turnovers was the real killer for us last year. Our skills were the one thing that Hinkley noted we needed to improve on at the end of 2014 and we didnt at all, arguably got worse. You can't compete with the likes of Hawthorn over the course of a whole season if your skill level isn't up to standard. Fix the skills and we will be half way there.

Teams put that extra bit of pressure on us knowing that our skills would fold under pressure,it was like every team lifted when they played us knowing this would happen. It would be interesting to see if any teams were cooked the week after playing us. In our darker days we used to play teams who may have been struggling into form.

 

[Ian Jackson]

"They're leaking, you don't know where! Fix it! Don't scream, make faces, all that bullshit! Fix it!" - Any Given Sunday

If you were to ask me "What went wrong in 2015?" I could probably give you a number of banal theories. No team care, no hardness around the contest, no gut running for team mates. But the one factor I would point to is the lack of defence in the midfield. Ken Hinkley's mantra has always been "You don't defend, you don't play", but in 2015 it seemed that this statement was only paid lip service as time and again we set up to win stoppages only to have our opponents waltz through our laughable "defence" when things didn't go according to plan. In fact, it wasn't just stoppages - all over the ground, our defending was so deplorable that we couldn't generate the turnovers that are the number one generation of scoring opportunities for teams in the AFL.

In the 2016 AFL Prospectus, Champion Data introduced a new metric or measurement - Ball Movement. This basically tracked how good a team was at creating goals from the quality of their possession. Hawthorn led the way with +40% over the league average in attack and +32% over the league average in defence. You want to know where Port Adelaide ranked? -3% for attack, +12% for defence. The sides that finished top four in the home and away - Sydney (+44%), West Coast (+36%), Fremantle (+35%) and Hawthorn all posted defensive ball movement stats that were miles ahead of the next best team, which was us, then Geelong with 9%. What does that tell us? It tells us that attack generated by defence and the subsequent turnovers is going to be infinitely more successful then rolling the dice and running forward of a clearance - which is how we were caught on the break a lot last year.

At a centre bounce, our movement was +20% over the league average. Our defence? A dismal 0%! Compare that to Hawthorn - the premier and who we beat twice when we were actually switched on - and they had +41% in attack and +42% in defence. Again, this shows how defence first generates the space required to attack. Instead of trying to force the issue and allowing other teams to counter attack on the break, the solution was to slow the play down, as Hawthorn does, retain possession and ensure that we always have players on the defensive side of stoppages. Having a defensive mindset also means valuing the ball when you have it and not attacking for the hell of it - our players should of always be mindful of their position on the field and whether the reward outweighs the risk enough when taking a chance on cutting through the congestion.

This is why you'll always hear Ken speaking about how we're improving on our defence - and why I don't rate teams like the Bulldogs. If we want to win a flag, we need to find that extra 20% when defending. And defending isn't a natural talent - it just requires tenacity and toughness. That's why bringing in Bassett and bringing back Hocking into a full time role is so important to the side. We find that extra 20% and go to elite, top four defence...and I promise you, the losses last year to Fremantle, Brisbane, Carlton, Sydney, Adelaide and West Coast don't happen.

You don't defend, you don't play. Well, if we don't defend, we won't win. I've got a feeling that mantra is going to be lived by the players this year. The other thing they mentioned about Port in the prospectus was the fact that we are mirroring closely the fortunes of Geelong 2005-2011...but then so did Carlton at one stage. The difference was that Carlton just expected things to happen, whereas Geelong made it happen. If we expect thing to happen, if our players expect someone else to shepherd when they won't do the same, then we're going to fold.

That's not what we're about. And that's why I'm supremely confident this year. Everyone is writing us off, but at Port Adelaide we write our own ******* praises.

Great analysis once again Janus, I enjoy your posts.

 

[Macca_1870]

Great analysis, Janus. Hopefully Bass really tightens our full ground defensive structures. Did note Westy yesterday saying a huge focus area this pre-season has been full ground match simulation. Obviously trying to get the kms into the legs whilst getting much needed work into our skills and structures.

 

[Janus]

Alright, now it's time to drill a little deeper into the issues with defense and how easy it is to rectify it this year. Let's take a look at a damning statistic of Port Adelaide circa 2015 - the groundball stat.

Groundball is the combination of loose-ball and hard-ball gets, and is by far the stat that the late Phil Walsh emphasized the most when it came to defensive pressure for the teams he was associated with. It combines a teams willingness to run hard to get a loose ball, but also to dive into a contest and shovel the ball out to a teammate in space. In short, it could be described as 'endeavor' - how willing a team is to sacrifice themselves for the greater good.

Now, for a side that had just spent a year with Phil as a midfield coach, you would think that Port would be pretty good at winning these stats, right? Wrong.



That's right...we were a dismal 16th in groundball in forward 50, and an even more dismal 15th in defensive 50! Our overall contested possession stat was a mediocre 12th. You're not going to make finals, much less win a premiership, with those sort of stats.

How did this happen? Did we really just throw out everything Walsh focused on out of spite, or was there something more to it? Well, there has been no secret made of the fact that the defensive gameplan last year was complex. Most, if not all of our problems would have stemmed from the fact that players were unsure of their role in the side at a given moment. But there is also the aspect of the defense in midfield. In the modern game, it's impossible to expect six players in defense (or seven since Hinkley likes to play a +1 to generate overlap) are going to be able to win the groundball against their direct opponents AND the midfielders that have dropped into defensive 50 to overrun the defense. The same goes for the forward 50. The lack of our mids defending high up the ground and taking away the opportunity for opposition players to float down into the defensive 50 area (or locking the ball into the forward 50) meant that this happened quite a bit.

In association football, this is called 'defending deep', and it's a bad thing, because not only does it invite continual attacks at goal, it also requires the defense to be switched on at all times, with mistakes being punished ruthlessly. If the midfield doesn't defend, it's basically 12 vs 6/7 - and you're not going to be winning any loose balls, much less hard balls, with those sort of odds. Remember the game when Nathan Krakouer threw up his hands because the midfield wasn't working hard enough and the ball kept coming back into D50? That's what I'm talking about.

It's physically impossible to have the mental acumen to process both the complexities of a Ross Lyon style defense and add that to a Port Adelaide style attack. One is about regimented structure and discipline, the other is about free flowing formlessness. In 2015, we tried to do this, and we ended up failing at both. In 2016, we're going to go back to Port Adelaide football, which is what we shied away from - and that includes smashing the groundball stat. Another reason why I believe 2015 was just a cluster* from the very start. Work on defense, yes, but work on it in a way that doesn't stifle the players or make them feel like they are doing something unnatural/artificial. Again, that's why we brought in Nathan Bassett - because he's famous for being able to teach defense in a simple to understand way. He left Norwood two years ago and his legacy still lives on over at that dungheap.

But there's more to the story. The next chapter is about our ball movement and how we defended the opposition's ball movement.

 

[Tibbs]

All this tactical talk is getting to me! Football fever is hitting me hard, I want the season to start dammit!!

 

[Rankor]

This is where my Buddy Bassett will show his worth, good team defence.

Add that to getting Polec and Wines back with the addition of big Dix I can see a lot more turnover goals this year.

 

[Janus]

Now it's time for the last part of my analysis. During the Family Day, it's been noted that the players were actively looking toward the wings at every opportunity. If you want to know why this is, read on:

Ball Movement



This is where we were ranked for ball movement through the 2015. You can almost see how opposition teams hemmed us in inside our defensive 50 (12th in ball movement), all the way up to defensive midfield (10th). Once we reached the centre we were fantastic (4th) - but that was only because the opposition was in the process of dropping back into our forward 50, plugging holes in attacking midfield (9th) and inside 50 (10th).

The reason for this is seen in the percentages of our midfield ball movement. We were 4th in using the corridor, with a percentage of 32.9%. But for the wing and boundary ball movement, we were 10th (32.8%) and 14th (34.3%) respectively. In comparison, Hawthorn ranked 7th at moving the ball through the corridor (30.2%), 3rd for moving the ball through the wing area (34.8%) and 13th along the boundary (35.0%).

If that's too much data to digest, here's the layman's analysis - as you become more of a threat to opposition teams, the opportunities to move the ball through the middle will decrease. A team can't force the ball through the corridor, because that's the quickest way to result in turnovers and be caught defensively out of position. That's why we are now looking to the wings - it's where the space is going to be. Of course we will use the corridor if it's available - it's the quickest route to goal. But our first instinct should be to move the ball quickly around any potential obstacles rather than to use brute force and try to run over the top of our opponents. The ball can move much quicker than any player.

Defending Ball Movement



Defense in regards to when the opposition had the ball was reasonable thanks to our forwards and backline, but again, the issue was with the midfield. If we turned the ball over by kicking a point and had to defend a kick in, or another deep attacking turnover, we were pretty good at keeping it locked into the forward line thanks to all our attack minded midfielders pushing up and wanting to score (5th). In transition we were hopeless - 11th in defending from attacking midfield (again, all our mids focused more on attack than defense), 10th in the centre until finally our defenders were able to help out and make defensive midfield defending 8th - but this is actually poor as well when you realize that we operate with a +1 or sometimes a +2. Then finally, we obviously were better at defending in our defensive 50 thanks to our overload of defenders.

So what does this mean? It means we pushed too many players forward without having the ability for those players to defend once they were higher up the field. And because we were slow in moving the ball through midfield thanks to trying to go through the corridor first, we left huge holes in the middle when all our players moved from one side to the other.

How do we fix it? Simple. We play to the wings first, corridor second, boundary last. Just like Hawthorn does. Gone are the days when we will be able to do what we like with opposition sides. That's what happens when you start to be good - other teams are looking to stop you from climbing any further up the ladder. Because if we look to the wings first, guess what is going to happen? Opposition coaches are going to have to put players in those positions from the start, rather than have them move from the corridor to guard that space. And that opens up the corridor once more.

Adaptability and accountability. A powerful combination.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Now it's time for the last part of my analysis. During the Family Day, it's been noted that the players were actively looking toward the wings at every opportunity. If you want to know why this is, read on:

Ball Movement

View attachment 215281

This is where we were ranked for ball movement through the 2015. You can almost see how opposition teams hemmed us in inside our defensive 50 (12th in ball movement), all the way up to defensive midfield (10th). Once we reached the centre we were fantastic (4th) - but that was only because the opposition was in the process of dropping back into our forward 50, plugging holes in attacking midfield (9th) and inside 50 (10th).

The reason for this is seen in the percentages of our midfield ball movement. We were 4th in using the corridor, with a percentage of 32.9%. But for the wing and boundary ball movement, we were 10th (32.8%) and 14th (34.3%) respectively. In comparison, Hawthorn ranked 7th at moving the ball through the corridor (30.2%), 3rd for moving the ball through the wing area (34.8%) and 13th along the boundary (35.0%).

If that's too much data to digest, here's the layman's analysis - as you become more of a threat to opposition teams, the opportunities to move the ball through the middle will decrease. A team can't force the ball through the corridor, because that's the quickest way to result in turnovers and be caught defensively out of position. That's why we are now looking to the wings - it's where the space is going to be. Of course we will use the corridor if it's available - it's the quickest route to goal. But our first instinct should be to move the ball quickly around any potential obstacles rather than to use brute force and try to run over the top of our opponents. The ball can move much quicker than any player.

Defending Ball Movement

View attachment 215282

Defense in regards to when the opposition had the ball was reasonable thanks to our forwards and backline, but again, the issue was with the midfield. If we turned the ball over by kicking a point and had to defend a kick in, or another deep attacking turnover, we were pretty good at keeping it locked into the forward line thanks to all our attack minded midfielders pushing up and wanting to score (5th). In transition we were hopeless - 11th in defending from attacking midfield (again, all our mids focused more on attack than defense), 10th in the centre until finally our defenders were able to help out and make defensive midfield defending 8th - but this is actually poor as well when you realize that we operate with a +1 or sometimes a +2. Then finally, we obviously were better at defending in our defensive 50 thanks to our overload of defenders.

So what does this mean? It means we pushed too many players forward without having the ability for those players to defend once they were higher up the field. And because we were slow in moving the ball through midfield thanks to trying to go through the corridor first, we left huge holes in the middle when all our players moved from one side to the other.

How do we fix it? Simple. We play to the wings first, corridor second, boundary last. Just like Hawthorn does. Gone are the days when we will be able to do what we like with opposition sides. That's what happens when you start to be good - other teams are looking to stop you from climbing any further up the ladder. Because if we look to the wings first, guess what is going to happen? Opposition coaches are going to have to put players in those positions from the start, rather than have them move from the corridor to guard that space. And that opens up the corridor once more.

Adaptability and accountability. A powerful combination.

Wow Janus. I don't know who you are or if you are male or female (sorry your Avatar confuses me) but you write such insightful stuff. Why do you think we pushed too many players forward last year and do you think Bassett is part of the reason for the changes now?