General BETTING Discussion

[X_box_X]

Today is the first time I have ever seen Australian books react quicker to team news than Pinnacle.

I happened to be monitoring the odds in the NBL between New Zealand and Melbourne. I checked this morning and the line was consistent all around, about -4.5 for NZ for most agencies, give or take 1 point.

By chance, about an hour ago I was looking at the odds on Ozbet and noticed they didn't have any available. This was at around 4PM. I thought that was strange. Pinnaclebet had the line at -6 at this stage, while a few others had the line still at -4.5.

I then refreshed my screen on Ozbet and United were showing +9.5. Line was still +6.0 on Pinny for United. I then checked Tattsbet and the line was also +9.5 there. Then the line went to 8.5 on Crownbet and 10.5 on Sportsbet. By this stage Pinny's line was slowly moving, from 6 to 7 and then slowly to 8. The odds available for the Breakers on Pinny were $1.403, while the odds for United were over $4 on all four books I mentioned.

Odds are now $1.25 to $4.60.

Has anyone else ever noticed Pinnacle reacting after the majority of local books? This is extremely ******* rare from my experience.

 

[nooblet]

it happens all the time during the afl season.

they also post opposite lines, ie a team should be +13.5 and they post -13.5 and leave it for like 45 minutes. It happened about 5 or so times last season.

 

[Keystone agony]

2015 ROI?

2015 (23.5%) ROI (Only 101 units invested though. Was a slower year for me i had less time.

Where do you post your DT/SC bets KA?

For 2013 and first half of 2014 posted in my bet tracker. But as people havnt cottoned onto that sub forum it gets less views so i started mid 2014 posting in the weekly AFL round thread to gain some traction and give tips in a place where more people would see them.

In 2015 you can follow my twitter account. All the 2015 bets were on there. FOLLOW ON: https://twitter.com/DreamTeam_Bets

Ill likely be working for a service next year. You can win good money if you know what your doing. I have been using $60 units at stages for several time and not been limited in any way. I thought i had but apparently not.

 

[X_box_X]

it happens all the time during the afl season.

they also post opposite lines, ie a team should be +13.5 and they post -13.5 and leave it for like 45 minutes. It happened about 5 or so times last season.

They always make errors, but never will they settle a bet with that error like most books.

 

[Indeed]

How do horse years races work?

Like a 2yo race and 3yo what is the difference between the horses

 

[iluvparis]

In the Southern Hemisphere every horse is treated as is if its birthday is August 1.

In the Northern Hemisphere every horse is treated as if its birthday is January 1

 

[Oraaaaazio]

3pt middle on 1h total in NBL game at 1.83/1.85

+EV or no

Discuss (tell me if I should bet it, I don't do NBL or have data on it)

 

[Lensen]

I would say no, want about $80 odds on a middle per point so would want at least $26 on that - you're getting about 10s on my very rough in my head calc

 

[Oraaaaazio]

I would say no, want about $80 odds on a middle per point so would want at least $26 on that - you're getting about 10s on my very rough in my head calc

thank you good sir, I did not bet it.

 

[Keystone agony]

I would say no, want about $80 odds on a middle per point so would want at least $26 on that - you're getting about 10s on my very rough in my head calc

How is that worked out?

Cheers
Lensen

 

[Lensen]

How is that worked out?

Cheers
Lensen

Risk v reward
$100 on a $1.83 pop is $183, profit $83
$98.92 on a $1.85 pop is $183, profit $84.08

$198.92 invested either way. Worst case return is $183 (so $16.92 risk). Best case is $366 (so $167.08 return)

Ergo odds are just shy of $10

 

[Lensen]

10/1 that is, not $10. Tired morning moment

 

[terminators]

Few blokes in some strife here. Big Rich, Schofield and Wallers RM

http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horsera...nto-hong-kong-horse-sale-20160222-gn0muy.html

 

[X_box_X]

It appears there is some sort of fix on Denys Garnash receiving a card in this morning Champions League match against Man City.

$33,000 traded on the outcome of whether he will receive a card or not is ludacris. He started at odds of $4.50 and has been traded as low as $1.56 to receive a card. These are insane odds, considering he averages a card in every 3.6 matches.

$51,000 in total was traded on whether players will receive a card in this match, so whether Garnash will receive a card accounts for almost two thirds of betting volume in this market.

 

[nooblet]

i guess they didn't fix it properly

 

[terminators]

Maybe the fix was to get the rumour firing and lay hard

 

[X_box_X]

i guess they didn't fix it properly

Stop being so naive.

With exchange betting, people also win by laying.

If the odds dropped on him to get a card and there was no lay option or no option to back against him getting a yellow card, you will have a point. Just because he didn't get a yellow card doesn't mean something fishy wasn't going on.

I.e.

"Hey, Nooblet. How are you? I've got some inside information that might interest you in relation to this week's match between Geelong and Collingwood. I am very close mates with Chris Scott, and he has informed that he will be playing Harry Taylor in the forward line this week. Obviously keep this to yourself. I will be happy to give you inside information in the future, but only if you can show me you don't reveal this information to anyone else."

Nooblet then makes his way over to Betfair and throws a significant amount of money on Taylor to score a goal. Nooblet can't help himself and then tells a friend, who also heads over to Betfair and throws money on Taylor scoring a goal. Suddenly his odds come into $1.50 to score a goal.

Meanwhile, the person who told Nooblet this information doesn't really know Chris Scott, and wouldn't have any idea where Harry Taylor is playing. He just assumes he will be playing in defence like he usually does. This person continues to laugh as he logs into his Betfair account and lays Taylor at the odds of $1.50 to score a goal. And then lays him some more at $1.60 and $1.70. Meanwhile there continues to be plenty of action on Taylor scoring a goal, because Nooblet's friend has also spread this news to a work colleague. The work colleague throws down $2,000 on him scoring a goal at $1.70. Etc etc.

Harry Taylor plays in defence, doesn't kick a goal, and the person who started the bullshit rumour has boarded a flight to Europe with his winnings so the persons he told who lost money don't know where to find him to bash him.

Moral of the story is just because prices drop significantly in betfair (or any other exchange), it doesn't mean there is no fix if that outcome does not occur.

Please tell me you can see the light and understand this is a way corruption can temporarily slip through the cracks? Especially if the person receiving the bullshit rumour actually knows the person feeding them with information is involved with the club. I.e. imagine if Chris Scott actually revealed Harry Taylor was playing in the forward line this week, but really he has a hidden agenda and plans to play him in defence after getting a family member to lay Taylor kicking a goal. Chris Scott covers this up by saying, "we had planned to play Taylor in the forward line, but that was until Lonergan pulled out, so we had to play Taylor in defence." Really, all along Scott knew Lonergan was going to miss so he orchestrates a cover up story.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Maybe the bloke has a death wish

 

[nooblet]

Stop being so naive.

your whole account is based around naivety though.

"vegas sets lines"

huehuehue

 

[HeathySure]

It appears there is some sort of fix on Denys Garnash receiving a card in this morning Champions League match against Man City.

$33,000 traded on the outcome of whether he will receive a card or not is ludacris. He started at odds of $4.50 and has been traded as low as $1.56 to receive a card. These are insane odds, considering he averages a card in every 3.6 matches.

$51,000 in total was traded on whether players will receive a card in this match, so whether Garnash will receive a card accounts for almost two thirds of betting volume in this market.

I approve of the way you spelt ludicrous



Sent from my SM-N920I using Tapatalk

 

[Oraaaaazio]

I approve of the way you spelt ludicrous



Sent from my SM-N920I using Tapatalk

 

[Lensen]

so the odds being crushed on the card are definitely due to a fix despite not actually happening despite the fact the source for the crush might be a rumour made up by someone completely unaware of the fix

good chat

 

[X_box_X]

so the odds being crushed on the card are definitely due to a fix despite not actually happening despite the fact the source for the crush might be a rumour made up by someone completely unaware of the fix

good chat

Reading your post backwards actually makes more sense than reading it in the normal way.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Reading your post backwards actually makes more sense than reading it in the normal way.

no it doesn't mate, what planet are you on???

"chat good

fix the of unaware completely someone by up made rumour a be might crush the for source the fact the despite happening actually not despite fix a to due definitely are card the on crushed being odds the so"

unless of course, you meant:

"tahc doog

xif eht fo erawanu yletelpmoc enoemos yb pu edam ruomur a eb thgim hsurc eht rof ecruos eht tcaf eht etipsed gnineppah yllautca ton etipsed xif a ot eud yletinifed era drac eht no dehsurc gnieb sddo eht os"

in which case, I completely understand.

 

[Lensen]

I hope you typed that all out manually