If anyone was considering Baily Rice ( personally i thought there were too many in front of him ) he now has glandular fever.
2016 AFL Fantasy Defenders
- Thread starter Fitzey
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Duryea i reckon will average more... in my side too
- Aug 15, 2011
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Purely depends on role
Never been a huge stat getter. He's more of a lock down defender than a rebounding defender and he handballs the ball far to often.
Nathan Broad, 125k mature aged draftee did very well in the Tigers intra-club match today going off reports.
Looking one of the better rookie defender options at this stage.
Looking one of the better rookie defender options at this stage.
But what have any of those guys scored in AFL?
Bit harsh calling someone out for the "most stupid comment" when your own comment has very little substance.
If you want to prove your point that TAC Cup scores translate to AFL scores then you need to look at the last few years, right now we have no idea whether getting 190 in TAC cup match could mean anything!
I think you'll find it's still a lottery, plenty of stat padders and a lot of the big scoring players don't even get recruited.
I wouldn't be choosing rookies based on their TAC Cup scores.
- Aug 15, 2011
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Yes and No .... did that help the conversation ha
Alot of the best stat getters in U18's if they make it at AFL level become big ball magnets there (See Prestia, see rockliff)
However then you have Ablett and Fyfe arguably the 2 best players in the game right now - well not arguable. They are. Both wernt big ball magnets at TAC level as they were forwards and now are premium midfielders at AFL level.
So its hard to say. I remember Howlett a year or 2 ago when he was playing for Essendon really struggling was getting 7-10 possessions a game mainly as a midfielder, half forward. Then finally Hirdy dropped him and in the VFL he got 40 disposals - straight back into the AFL he went and still he went at teen disposal rates. Its a vastly different quality whether people like that or not. AFLs a big step up. However some are better suited to making it then others (ie: Barlow. Ball magnet at VFL and translated like that in AFL. See Magner ball magnet in VFL didnt translate in AFL for Melbourne.
Its a hard one. I think for rookies scoring in U18 level is a bit the same. I dont think Heppell was the biggest ball winner at TAC but his first year i think he avg over 80 as a defender off half back. It more depends on opportunity, role, time and many different variables such as confidence, feeling apart of it in the team group ect
NAB cup tells all
Yep, I've always picked my rookies off NAB form & training reports and its worked well.
I do like looking up the stats of TAC Cup, SANFL etc. though. But don't think it means a lot.
Eg. Our boy Matt Allen averages nearly 130 from 5 games, kicking 5 goals a game with 20 touches and 10 marks... That ain't happening at AFL Level
- Aug 15, 2011
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Yeh must admit ive ever really looked at SANFL, WAFL, VFL stats when picking rookies. For matyre aged guys like Brown, Hartley it might have more say but TAC to what you do first year AFL really relies on most other things.
- Jun 4, 2015
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Alright, fair enough, and maybe I was a little aggressive with that last reply, however the point I was trying to make is that the guys who I am positive will get games playing roles with suit their fantasy scoring are the ones that you need to do some research on. It's difficult to explain how I know what roles certain players will be playing, but it's a combination of many facets of their game styles and something that I only know because I've spent the whole of 2015 following these draftees around.
I'm not going to go around blowing my mouth off at people who think that, for example, Kurt Mutimer's TAC Cup scores may not be completely indicative of his Fantasy worth (again, check his U18 stats) but for those who say quite shallow, generalised comments about how the U18 competitions are meaningless towards Fantasy prospects you can find my rookie guide and tell me that there aren't patterns that emerge from the top-flight ball winners and Fantasy scorers, that have been recently drafted.
http://dreamteamtalk.com/2016/01/27/2016-fantasy-draftee-guide/ - my rookie guide, in a different thread in the AFL Fantasy forum.
- Jun 4, 2015
- 1,887
- 2,046
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Real Madrid, Melb Stars
By the way, actually watch out for Matthew Allen in the future once he bulks up a bit. Those stats aren't a fluke, despite their unlikelihood of being repeated, to that extent, in the AFL.
Fair enough, I'll check out your guide, every bit of knowledge helps.
I actually trawled through a lot of U/18 stats after reading your post, didn't realise they existed. Was interesting to look at how all the top draftees went.
- Jul 20, 2002
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Of the two South Australian teams, Jasper Pittard was scoring big in fantasy at the end of last year and has a licence to do more of the same this year. Was looking very alert in the internal trial. If you can wear the $420K he could be a good pickup, his price could increase to a premium this year. And with the exodus of Dangerfield from Adelaide the big-kicking Brodie Smith ($391K) is due for a bit more midfield time and is a defensive DPP.
I wouldn't go for any other defenders from Port as mid-premiums; Broadbent has a good average but you'll never get more than a 75-90 score from him and most of Port's others are more defensive than anything. Although Jackson Trengove($259K) could be worth a flutter as a cheap option, his marking looks to have improved out of sight and Port could be using him to clear their backlines which would give his average a substantial push from the 46.7 where it currently stands.
I wouldn't go for any other defenders from Port as mid-premiums; Broadbent has a good average but you'll never get more than a 75-90 score from him and most of Port's others are more defensive than anything. Although Jackson Trengove($259K) could be worth a flutter as a cheap option, his marking looks to have improved out of sight and Port could be using him to clear their backlines which would give his average a substantial push from the 46.7 where it currently stands.
doona
SMFC
A couple of things I will add:
- In u/18s the players are the best in there position, playing against 18 year olds. In the AFL, they are playing against the best and the best are men. Some draftees have a body to compete at AFL level but most don't.
- u/18s scores mean nothing for anyone out of the tac cup. Most wafl/SANFL Juniors play reserve/first grade which is more indicative of there scores against men (look at francis).
- how do you judge Tasmanian / NSW / NT etc... Talent when they play in Division 2. They don't play against players that would/could get drafted.
- You can't ignore u18 scores but essentially it's kids versing kids. Some of the best scorers don't have the body to compete in the AFL. Especially inside players or KPP.
- would a half back flanker for an u18s team walk into that role in the AFL? Would the best mid be the best mid at AFL verse men?
Swans have Mills that will play on the HBF but was drafted as the best mid in the draft (that didn't play last year so no u/18 scores) and we have just lost Malceski/Shaw and have no run from HBF and an abundance of mids (I doubt he could get a gig there above hanners, mitchell, parker, mcveigh, etc.....). I am sure if he was in another team, with quality HBF or a weak midfield he would be played in a different position.
A draftee doesn't automatically jump above everyone with AFL experience because they averaged 100 in juniors.
Yes its indicative but it really depends the team you get drafted to, the body of the kid, the position you play, who is ahead of you etc.... so much more then under 18 fantasy points
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doona
SMFC
Also look at someone like M.Brown in the VFL last year. He dominated and was a fantasy relavent player but in the AFL because of Essendons list will be a KPD.
How are is VFL scores fantasy relavent when he will be played in a different position this year against better players?
How are is VFL scores fantasy relavent when he will be played in a different position this year against better players?
- Aug 15, 2011
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He played key position/3rd tall in VFL aswell though, but 70% forward 30% back.
doona
SMFC
- Aug 15, 2011
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He wouldve played 3rd tall forward had there been no bans.3rd tall and 70% forward. Not what he will play in the AFL
But yes now he will play 2nd/3rd tall defender
doona
SMFC
If he got a game.
If he is third, who are your 1st and 2nd KPD defenders? I would have thought last year Hurley, Hooker then carslisle. This year, who are the 2 above Brown?
I am genuinely interested because if he was the 3rd defender I would select him. As a KPD I dont think he would be worth it. so the difference between 3rd tall verse KPD is quite large in my opinion.
- Aug 15, 2011
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Yep so we wouldve lined up with Hurley, Hooker and Brown fown back or gone Daniher, Mckernan and Brown up forward probably the latter most likely hes better than Ambrose.
Hartley and Gwilt. Its a mix up between what Gwilt and Brown do. Gwilts played on gorillas before with up and down success
doona
SMFC
Gwilt is not a KPD. He would have lined up on someone in a 3 pronged attack but it's laughable he would be a KPD over brown.
So basically your KPDs are Hartley and Brown?
From that post anyway you have answered my question. So no point replying as we will disagree on the fact gwilt is not a KPD
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Gwilt is 188 tall . I have watched in horror as my team made him line up on Gorilla's
- Aug 15, 2011
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Unfortunatly we arent in a position to do much else. Gwilt is a limited player. He really wouldnt be that much smaller than Gibson would he? maybe afew cms max. Remember Campbell brown taking key forwards at 177? Hodge has done it before but more ruckmen which isee as different.
Look at what Sheppard, Hurn, Wellingham and co did last year.
The evolution of the game could actually suit Gwilt. As long as you can hold ground, spoil well and be determined and dedicated to stick close to someone the game now clogs up really quickly the ball isnt as easily moved forward and teams clog that back 50 up quick. See why Cloke and Hawkins have dropped in the last 2-3 years they no longer are 1 vs 1 deep always have a clogged 50 all defenders helping against them as the ball is stiffled through movement up ahead.
doona
SMFC
One thing going for your argument is West Coast last year. They proved you do not need a KPD to defend. No offence to McGovern. Defence starts at the entry to the forward line/restricting and then on the team defence/playing of your player and then the individual duels.
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