Preview Round 7 - Geelong v West Coast, Saturday 2:10pm @ KP

[DV2000]

Forward lines are similar

Imo, WCE forward line >>> Cats' forward line
Can't forget that last year Kennedy was the best forward in the comp, kicking 80 goals. Add in Darling, Lecras, Cripps and Hill, and you have close to the best forward line in the league.

Ruck duels are similar

Nic Nat has been in ripping form so far his season, and he is one of the best ruckmen in the game. Lycett has also been more than servicable.
On our end, we have Smith and Stanley, who have been good, but definitely not up to nic nat/Lycett standard. Smith's best work has been done around the ground, however in the ruck, he's been average. In many of our games this year, we've had fewer hitouts that our opponent. In fact Smith averages just 15 hitouts a game and Stanley averages 18. Both of their numbers COMBINED doesnt beat Naitanui's average of 36.

 

[candiehappy]

fair call DV2000 - but we do have a very good and stingy backline. I am hoping that we can win it out of the midfield, where Nit Nat aside I think that we are superior.

 

[Baudolino]

Imo, WCE forward line >>> Cats' forward line
Can't forget that last year Kennedy was the best forward in the comp, kicking 80 goals. Add in Darling, Lecras, Cripps and Hill, and you have close to the best forward line in the league.

Nic Nat has been in ripping form so far his season, and he is one of the best ruckmen in the game. Lycett has also been more than servicable.
On our end, we have Smith and Stanley, who have been good, but definitely not up to nic nat/Lycett standard. Smith's best work has been done around the ground, however in the ruck, he's been average. In many of our games this year, we've had fewer hitouts that our opponent. In fact Smith averages just 15 hitouts a game and Stanley averages 18. Both of their numbers COMBINED doesnt beat Naitanui's average of 36.

Pretty much how I see it.

We have the superior back line and midfield; they have the superior forward line and ruck division.

 

[GHS33]

Imo, WCE forward line >>> Cats' forward line
Can't forget that last year Kennedy was the best forward in the comp, kicking 80 goals. Add in Darling, Lecras, Cripps and Hill, and you have close to the best forward line in the league.

Nic Nat has been in ripping form so far his season, and he is one of the best ruckmen in the game. Lycett has also been more than servicable.
On our end, we have Smith and Stanley, who have been good, but definitely not up to nic nat/Lycett standard. Smith's best work has been done around the ground, however in the ruck, he's been average. In many of our games this year, we've had fewer hitouts that our opponent. In fact Smith averages just 15 hitouts a game and Stanley averages 18. Both of their numbers COMBINED doesnt beat Naitanui's average of 36.

I think it's more important to look at the hit-out differential than total hit-outs. We are ranked 5th in the comp here and WCE are first by a fair margin. But both teams average 38 clearances per game which I'd argue is a lot more important than hit-outs.

 

[Frappe]

Geelong Vs West Coast Eagles
Saturday 7th May 2016 at 2.10pm
Kardinia Park

Weather Forecast: 24 Degrees, Cloudy and Windy with a slight chance of rain

Last Time They Met

West Coast Eagles 16.24.120
Geelong 10.4.64

This was the game where the Eagles really arrived in 2015 with an emphatic 56 point win against the Cats at Domain Stadium in Round 9. We were smashed in most parts of the game and if not for inaccurate kicking from the Eagles, it would have been a far worse result. Incredibly, we were still within two kicks during time-on in the third quarter. We looked very flat, lost Clark and Stanley in the second quarter and appeared incapable of combatting the Eagles style of play both on the ground and in the coaches’ box.

Geelong struggled with consistency for the remainder of 2015, whilst the Eagles went from strength to strength on the back of the “Weagles Web”.

Current Form

Geelong-

Geelong’s last 7 quarters of football have been very solid to say the least. Rounds 2-4 had been a little patchy and we very much looked like a team still gelling in terms of new players and structures. The quarter time brawl against the Power may very well be looked back on as the turning point in the season, where the players really went into battle for each other. We haven’t put a foot wrong since. Here’s hoping this continues. Interestingly, there’s an article in the H-S this am about how tight a press we are employing. However, I’ve felt we’ve kept some numbers back at times and hope we retain this strategy. I think we’re still a little vulnerable if we apply too tight a press.

West Coast-

West Coast’s form hasn’t been too bad either albeit with form at either end of the spectrum. They have had two significant defeats away at the hands of the Hawks and Swans, however, they were quite strong in their win over the Pies last round. Their draw has seen them play at home for 4 out of 6 rounds so far, so this feeds the belief of some that they are flat track bullies (thread on their board about this). However, could the same be said for the Cats in 2016? The Eagles last quarter against the Pies was very impressive in terms of ball use and pressure on the opposition. I have to confess I watched their game a little closer than normal given I am writing this preview.

Possible inclusions

Geelong – Mackie (quad), Stanley (illness), Gregson and Ruggles (rested)

West Coast Eagles – Yeo (illness), Ellis (WAFL)



Match-ups

Geelong Backs vs WCE Forwards

This will be a massive challenge for our backs as the Eagles’ big forwards are very good at working up the ground and creating space for each other to run into in the forward line. This doesn’t suit our defensive set-up as we still rely on the pressure up the ground to force the opposition to bomb the ball in. Although we are still applying a decent press in games, we appear to be trying to keep a few numbers back (or so it looks) and this avoids the opposition kicking over our press and racing us back to their goal a la 2015. I expect Taylor – Kennedy, Henderson – Darling, and Lonergan – Lycett to be the initial match-ups. If Guthrie pulls up ok from last week, then I’d expect him to go to Le Cras, given Le Cras does time up the ground. As long as Geelong’s backs don’t get sucked up the ground with our press, and on our current form, I give us a slight edge – especially at KP.

Rucks

We’re up against the best in the business at stoppages in terms of Natanui, and Lycett providing great support in a back-up role. We have broken even at best in terms of hit-outs, however, we have been better around the ground in 2016 in terms of contribution from our ruckmen. Blicavs has had more hit-outs in the past few weeks so I will not be surprised to see him coming in as third-man up to assist in stemming the Eagles’ dominance in this area. Eagles have a clear and distinct advantage in this area. Look for Smith and Stanley to try and push forward at every opportunity. We need to be careful not to give away free kicks in the ruck contests this week.

Midfields

This will be a great match-up with both midfields being strong and deep in this area. Both teams have similar numbers in terms of clearances and contested possessions. We both rely on our top 4 in terms of players with solid to excellent clearance numbers (Shuey, Priddis, Natanui, Redden vs Selwood, Dangerfield, Bartel, Caddy). Geelong have turned their fortunes around in these areas in 2016 to the point where this area is not the liability it was in previous years. It will be interesting to see how we set up at centre bounces. I think we bat slightly deeper (mind you the Eagles are strong in the midfield in their own right) plus Selwood and Dangerfield give us an edge. I’ll be interested to see if either side employ a tag (Blicavs or Yeo) or go head-to-head.

Geelong Forwards vs WCE Backs

Geelong need Kersten and Menzel to step up this week as the Eagles are very strong in defence and work well to support each other. I don’t see Hawkins having too many one-on-ones in our forward 50m, so I hope he works up around CHF as he really straightens us up when he moves around this area. This also gives our team space to move into behind him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kersten play on McGovern in a defensive forward role. I also anticipate our forwards playing an aggressive game in terms of pressure and tacking on the opposition (18 I50 tackles against the Suns). However, our second-tier forwards must continue to step-up so we can kick a winning score. This is a fairly balanced match-up at this end of the ground.



Final Word

This is an evenly matched game between two sides who work hard for their team mates (Geelong still gelling at this point). Ironically, given the firepower of both teams, I don’t expect this to be a high-scoring affair. I feel both teams (especially Geelong) will try to strangle and restrict the opposition for scoring opportunities – especially early in the game. It’s a massive test for the Cats against a team whose best is as good as any in the competition. I think we have a slight advantage in our ball transition and this will assist our ability to kick over the “Web”. This combined with the windy conditions leans me slightly towards the Cats but I’m expecting a far more stressful afternoon than our last few games at KP. My prediction is also based on there being no real surprises from the current reported injury updates.

Geelong by 13 points

PREVIEW BY Frappe

 

[Whiskers]

This year Whiskers,we will be the ones that kill off their dreams of a 4 peat.

Would much prefer to have stopped it before it started.
20 point lead - next minute 3 flags.

 

[Cattery]

In: Mackie, Stanley, Ruggles
Out: Bartel, Vardy, Kolodjashnij

Managed or omitted?

 

[Sttew]

Managed or omitted?

Would have to be a "managed" case given his game v GCS.

 

[Sttew]

Geelong by 13 points

PREVIEW BY Frappe

Great work Frappe

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Managed or omitted?

Managed. He played well against the Gold Coast.

 

[Cattery]

Managed. He played well against the Gold Coast.

I was hoping that was the care, knowing your opinion of him though I just had to make sure.

 

[Catman]

My three most disappointing days at the football were a) 2008 GF, b) 2013 qualifying final and c) Enright's 300th last year. That Eagles game was up there though, and if I'd been at the *shudder* Nick Davis game rather than watching it on TV it would easily be number one on my list.

I was at all except Boris' 300th, as I was overseas for that one. Trust me the Davis game still hurts, even after winning three flags I still struggle to watch any highlights of it and it was just heartbreaking being there that night.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

I was at all except Boris' 300th, as I was overseas for that one. Trust me the Davis game still hurts, even after winning three flags I still struggle to watch any highlights of it and it was just heartbreaking being there that night.

Gallant though, we were dead and almost held on.
Agreed though I can't watch it.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

The new premiership favourites.

Let's hope we don't become complacent.

 

[Bobby_]

The new premiership favourites.

Let's hope we don't become complacent.

I see Hawthorn the premiership favorites followed closely by Sydney & West Coast as the top three when it comes to betting odds.
Geelong and North are sitting 4th & 5th.

 

[frenchconnection]

Pretty much how I see it.

We have the superior back line and midfield; they have the superior forward line and ruck division.

Well it's 50/50 then Just hope it's a good game and the play is of high standard!

 

[iameviljez]

Fair enough.

My memory of the saga isn't the sharpest.

Sheehan does an Open Mike with Dale Lewis and it's going around teh YooToobz, much recommended.

 

[Bobby_]

Yeah we havent started the way have liked but its not an end all even if we lose. a lot of good sides get better as the year gets. You dont want do a freo and start like a house on fire and fall away late. IMO i cats should win comfortably 20+ points. if we can get within 20 i would be happy as thats a massive improvement from our last two games against contenders.

I think it will be a lot more demoralizing than what you may seem to believe. I get that it's still early but West Coast have the monkey on the back when it comes to playing anywhere away from Perth. Another poor showing and opposition teams will really start to feel confident facing West Coast at the MCG as they simply can't get use to playing away from their comfort zone. It's not the sign of a premiership team at all.
The difference with Fremantle, they were winning at the MCG and Kardinia park in fairly convincing fashion. Not so much this year but you still know they are a good chance when they travel.

West Coast, not at all. Be interesting to see how they go in this one.

 

[avishka5]

Yeah we havent started the way have liked but its not an end all even if we lose. a lot of good sides get better as the year gets. You dont want do a freo and start like a house on fire and fall away late. IMO i cats should win comfortably 20+ points. if we can get within 20 i would be happy as thats a massive improvement from our last two games against contenders.

Early on we had a good record against you over there but havent beaten you in 10 years and our last game there was really embarrassing after we struggled to score a goal after quarter time.

Has McGovern been playing forward or back this season? If he's in the back half I expect Kersten to play a role keeping him away from Hawkins.

defence but he isnt the only guy intercepting. If the mackenzie v hawkins match up doesnt work we might be forced to play schofield on hawkins. mackenzie is also very good in the air (top 5 intercept mark in 2014). Mackenzie just looks way too skinny to play on hawkins for my liking.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I see Hawthorn the premiership favorites followed closely by Sydney & West Coast as the top three when it comes to betting odds.
Geelong and North are sitting 4th & 5th.

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...t/news-story/c73477bd7dc303cb6cbe7b3c5213cff8

 

[Catman]

Gallant though, we were dead and almost held on.
Agreed though I can't watch it.

We would have been sitting ducks for St. Kilda the next week, and considering the rivalry that had developed at the time, not sure I would have wanted them to make a GF at our expense.

 

[Catman]

Really enjoying the way we're developing this season, hence I'm thoroughly looking forward to the next fortnight. As long as we continue to do the things which have been our strong suit this year. Do that and the results will take care of themselves.

 

[catempire]

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au...t/news-story/c73477bd7dc303cb6cbe7b3c5213cff8

This week's winner will be outright favourite.

 

[vinum coupe]

May premiers. Yay!

 

[catempire]

May premiers. Yay!

Why are you cheering for Norf??