Harness Racing 2009

[Jasper29]

Bus To Harland is a fair battler.

With the whole EPO episode, I would be worried and questioning that he was on the 'juice' when he was firing. ( J Quinlan- Em Maguane). Im not making any accusations here, but you have to ask the question.

He is certainly racing like that right now, mid grade NZ horses arent having too many troubles with this so called 'superstar.'

[Danger Mouse]

lol Carlton, your a funny guy! I know you'll read this post logged off so here it is,

I had numerous selections all week paying 10 bucks + who all ran second, i clearly went for outsiders in most cases. I clearly went for horses who were as good as 100-1 shots all week KNOWING they had pretty much no chance but still went for them anyway. I went for numerous backmarkers KNOWING harness racing is a leader dominated sport. I went for a stack of horses who had got THRASHED in previous races and went completely aweful and had no aparent reason why they would improve at all! I knew all this full well and didn't care! That should show you exactly how much respect i have for your knowledge of harness racing.

Only last night did i go for who i wanted and that went fair, i beat Newcastle but not so good Albion Park but thats fine, i based my selections on the last half and numerous winners had it on the last quarter after the speed map, i still found 2 winners there and grabbed 2 seconds as well as 2 fourths. Touch and go either way, i know i hurt myself by going for so many horses who sit back in the field, i mean shit i just go for every probable leader and break even with the TAB nearly every day but then what would be the point?

Oh i know, if i can BREAK EVEN then i get respect from people like you? If i was here for respect, then i wouldn't make crazy comments all the time, i wouldn't abuse most of the posters in this forum, i wouldn't abuse the sport, i would kiss everyones arse and i would go for what would be considered the approriate selection every race.

Does my name read "Seth" .... HELL NO!

What's even funnier is regardless of what you say, i reckon you did the take the time to fire out who you thought was best all week. You fired out non stop favourites and still lost.

Have a nice life and your welcome back any time, those rants are gold and make bigfooty worth the time to logon!

When i start doing this again, i'm going to attempt do this properly, no crazy longshots with horrible recent form, i'll speed map them and base my selection on last quarter/half and factor in what i did when i was betting huge, something i have never mentioned on here and never will and then we'll see how much of a hack i am.

You have also gone on about the poker, the dole, this and that questioning my credability. Mate go F yourself, i never lie, i may say things that are not exactly the truth to troll you guys but i never lie, in fact i'm to honest cos i say in most cases exactly what i think.

I have sat my arse on Pokerstars with no bankroll, free rolled my way to money, then made tens of thousands of dollars online beating EVERY single limit i played at. I hardly play anymore though cos of the overkill of playing to much! I actually logged in last night during the harness racing and ONLY played for fun in a couple of freerolls and play money tournaments and after 30 minutes i couldn't stand it! Bored to death! Amazing hey, a guy who claims to have won a shitload on poker yet logs on and plays for fake money. Sounds a bit like this thread to doesn't it, the whole i have bet huge but don't bet anymore and do it just for fun. For the record, i qualified in the freeroll beating a few thousand to the last 72 spots and ran 2nd 4th and 6th out of 45 players in the play money sit and goes! I couldn't care less if people find that amusing as a so called "BAD THING" ... I enjoy the game and am happy to play just for fun.

Ever consider i don't need nor care about money. I'm perfectly happy with my living conditions and lifestyle and money is the last thing on my mind.

Now i could only imagine what fools like yourself, Stressless and the rest end up LOSING every week gambling and i can only imagine that most of you are minimum wage or on centrelink.

I think i'm great at reading people and i reckon i'm spot on.

Gee i type a lot when i get going!

You know what the poker superstar slash harness racing world champion is going to do now? Play some online hearts or spades for fun once again! No money involved! I betcha i win to!

[Oaksnaf]

Originally Posted by carltonblue

Dear Forum,

I have exposed DM as nothing but a hack. When the pressure was on he couldnt even manage to get anything near his money back, let alone a profit. The last 18 months of this Poker star turned punting pro has all came to an abrubt end, with an embarassing narrow win over one of the common folk, CarltonBlue.
So common folk, just as most do, I urge the rest of us to see through this boy who is too shitscared to back his own selections cos he knows he wont get anything near his $$$ back, thats if he gets enough cash from either a) the dole or b) pocket money from mummy.

It has been a good forum, will be disapointing not contributing to spring carnival talk.

I'm not sure whether I understand this post.

Why would you slag anyone off in regards to knowledge and punting abilities when the individual making these comments barely beats/gets beat by the person in question. But also in regards to the knowledge slagging, describes himself as 'common folk'.

I'm not sure whether a 'common folk' 'loser' has anything to brag or slag about to another poster on the forum in such manner.

This was a lovely ego fued. No-one was going to win in plain sailing. Because that would be all too easy for the ego.

And I don't believe belittling someone gives anyone browny points. Who really cares whether the people who post on here bet 50c or $5,000.

There is a lot of disbelief amongst facts. Funny that. Arn't facts meant to be facts?




I also apologise for my lack of attention to this topic (was extremely busy and other issues happened that were harsh). But all tips were received before time and posted as the same in the inbox post-time. So no issue in the tips.




Maybe we all need a BIG HUG!!!

[sethlad]

Originally Posted by Danger Mouse

l
Oh i know, if i can BREAK EVEN then i get respect from people like you? If i was here for respect, then i wouldn't make crazy comments all the time, i wouldn't abuse most of the posters in this forum, i wouldn't abuse the sport, i would kiss everyones arse and i would go for what would be considered the approriate selection every race.
Does my name read "Seth" .... HELL NO!

Im sure I should be offended by this online character assassination.....
Lucky this is a virtual world & everyone is free to be (or claim to be) anyone they want......who cares who's done what here?

"Seth"

[Danger Mouse]

I have to do these Tuesday meetings as it's my favourite day of the week. Messing around with quality of opposition today which will make doing the form a breeze in most cases as i know with near 100% efficiency whos better then who that "won" at previous outings.

This doesn't mean any single horse below will win, it's an "idea" that i'd like to trial .... Carltonblue free too! Only be looking at the last 2-3 starts and be leaning towards horses who ran well where possible as in worked, was caught wide, made ground, held up etc

Albion Park

Race 1 - El Padrino - Beaten 6m behind Seargent Jujon. No luck last start in a dash home (28.2) as was held up early.

Race 2 - Opal TJ - Sat 3 wide in a strong mile rate beaten 20m behind Hi Jinks in Saturday night grade. Was right off the track late. He's first up here but form not as bad as it looks. Don't like horses first up unless they'll start around 20-1 which is the case here.

Race 3 - Overcam - Led throughout beating Inthelightofday 3 starts ago. The end.

Race 4 - Trooper Cobb - Ran second beaten a neck behind Supremacy Bay in a vastly higher rated claimer. He's a C3 in this race which is a C1 only and hes drawn the pole. Moral you would you think! Has a brilliant turn of foot too as 4 starts ago he rocketed out the gates early and broke 34 crossing Lamborghindi a horse thats won an M0 at Harold Park. Remember this is a C1. Makes his price last start look unreal!

Race 5 - Mishani Silencio - Beaten 4m behind Lastofthefarm and Conquistare who are both racing fine and then beaten 8m behind Albert Ararlar whos been in great form. Been racing vastly stronger opposition and been not to far away.

Race 6 - Melton Bonover - Beaten 5m twice behind Something Slippery whos been flying lately. Beaten a neck behind Our Jaccka Lad who ran second the other day. Forget last start when i cursed the horse. To show how good SS has been going, Cheers Robbie couldnt run him down yet came out and ran second to the emerging star Western Cam.

Race 7 - Something Slippery - No suprises hey! Going on his win over Cheers Robbie as mentioned previously, anything with form around Western Cam (Life Story won on Saturday night) i have to put on top. Changes stables here back to John McArthy, i hope thats not a bad thing!

Race 8 - Zane Patrick - Ran on beaten 12m behind Arkamigo who in turn was beaten 4m behind the likes of Be Good Johnny, Atomic Ark and Holy Camp Boy. Beaten 1m behind the the very in form Arapal last start when he ran on strongly again. Interesting to note, he was on the 3 wide train sitting last and went straight past I'm Gazza who has won since. Now draw a line through Bossys Henry who was beaten 7m behind Catchmecullen sitting 3 wide, ZP beat him home easily his previous 2 runs.

Race 9 - Buckleup Buster - Beaten 3m behind Save Me Chistian whos won his last 2 and Glowing Jasper who won last start sitting 3 wide. Little worrying though as he sucks when he works to hard early, i mean this horse needs a it soft early. Also BULLBAR sat outside him 2 starts ago, did way more work and beat him home easily but that was over the longer trip. BULLBARS safer i guess as he tries hard, can work and sticks on but the end dash is worrying whereas BB will outsprint these easily if left alone but the likely scenario of that arriving looks slim as BULLBARS driver should put him to the sword throughout. Lightning Mac Max and Langus Cam should get good runs here just off the speed.

Menangle

Race 1 - Cushti Gri - Beaten close up behind Earldom and Bolivia, terrible form isn't it...

Race 2 - Smackdown - Ran straight past Lombo Astreos and the same shit he faces here that he faced last start. Rustleinthehay should be kept safe on his first up run splitting Orchestrate and the recent multiple winner The Boogey Man.

Race 3 - Champion Melody - Ran second to the undefeated Western Gold beaten a 1m. Beaten 7m 3 runs back behind Our Crown Law at Headquarters.

Race 4 - Over The Phone - Over The Phone ran on well 3 starts ago behind Fullaspeed whos been racing very well lately. The VIC form of Cee Hanover reads ok as he worked and For Granted who is flying didn't beat him by far 3 runs ago. Not a hard race to win.Will Stars the obvious other one as he beat OTP last start and ran well behind good quality opposition a number of runs back. Toumai beat Will Star 2 starts back from the same draw. Happy to go the value here.

Race 5 - Golconda Glean - Ran on very well 2 starts ago behind The Wild Storm, that horse has tested Ben Junior so that formline reads okay! Had no chance last start in a dash home.

Race 6 - Machomical - Better run last when he ran on behind Star Of Mia who nearly won last Friday night at HQ.

Race 7 - Vinnies Falcon - Go on his run 2 starts ago when he hit the line strongly with Saucy Legend who killed them last Friday night again.

Number of sit sprinters today, never good but if i'm going to have a sit sprinter then Menangles the track i'd want!

[Gpat]

Thanks Danger Mouse - your info above helped inform me on on a few races I had a go at yesterday, to good effect. Esp your moral Trooper Cobb!

Keep em coming!

[Danger Mouse]

Originally Posted by Gpat

Thanks Danger Mouse - your info above helped inform me on on a few races I had a go at yesterday, to good effect. Esp your moral Trooper Cobb!

Keep em coming!

You must have been betting the place dude, i think i only got 3 winners, around 6 seconds and 3 thirds was it? Meh!

I have a dream that one day these horses will rise up and live out the true meaning of speed. I hold these truths to be self-evident, that all horses are created equal.

I have a dream that one day they will not run second, show some heart and win!

BTW - I will do an in depth analysis tonight going over every runner looking at every angle!

[Danger Mouse]

Redcliffe (Based on the exact idea i tried yesterday)

Race 1 - Jeff Of Steel - Based on Melton Gunna win who pulled out and tried to make ground on St. Maarten but was beaten 18m. JOS kicked his arse 5 runs back. As for what JOS has been beating, well Melton Striker won previously and I'm Troy ran second yesterday to Trooper Cobb.

Race 2 - Phevos - Life Story sat outside Western Cam and ran second in quick sectionals, then he led and almost got run down by Phevos who flew late. The difference between Phevos and White Eye Markei is, Phevos made excellent ground against that formline whereas WEM just trailed and held his spot not working.

Race 3 - Dance Like a Dream - Nailed Rocket Empress who won next start and the form from that race stacked up as the horse who ran third there (Raglan Sky then won his next start and Amazing Oliver ran second at his next start after running second in that race) ..... Also nailed an unlucky El Pardino who had ran second to Seargent Jujon and missed the start by 6 lengths yesterday and still won!

Race 4 - Our Titus - Death seated against Seargent Jujon beaten 20m. To put it into perspective, if any of these had to death seat against him they'd all be beat 120m.

Race 5 - Promheir - Led and just run down by Bluestone Cam who i consider a very promising young horse!

Race 6 - Ark Monroe - First starter, half sister to Arkareena, Atomic Ark, Arkamigo. Big shoes to fill! They are the opposition i have to compare her too! Of the raced duds, The Red Rocket tried to run on out wide against Bullbar who won yesterday and Asituation ran on behind the recent multiple recent winner Dusty Roman when he ran second and beat Nikalongthebeach whos a couple in recent months.

Race 7 - Abermain - Sat behind Normie and went straight on by! Hasn't won for 3.5 years but something tells me thats about to change espec with the recent stable change.

Race 8 - Tomshep - Go on his 5 starts ago when he worked up 3 wide behind Something Slippery beaten 3m. Last start was okay, trailed Village Jim out 3 wide and held his ground, the 2nd and third horses in that race ran the quinella yesterday and destroyed the rest of the field in a fast run race. Hes a roughie though and you'll know why in my next post. Besides every C will auto go for Gadzoox and Smooth Jag without even considering the rest of the field, it'd be nice for once to see these jokers go down!

I have another dream, that one day i can come face to face with Fowler and Barsby and call them piss weak for going for the most captain of all obvious horses when there actually not that great to begin with! They have as much heart as all my horses who run second! (NONE)

In all honesty we watch these horses go around every week. Do they ever once go for anything that isn't the obvious selection that most will go for. Both manginas!

[Danger Mouse]

Here's a story about a couple of horses who i bet on rather large, full details, this should help people find a winner on there own with horses they know. Hopefully the regular idiots here stay away today!

Franco Tinman - Yep that dud that races in W.A now... About what over 2 years ago? Not sure now, he was in a race at Harold Park. Pretty much it appeared a 2 horse race on paper. The other main contender was Drumfire. Drumfire was drawn the outside of the front while he was drawn the back row.

Now i was at the pub this day perving on the local barmaids skipping race after race in frusturation as nothing suitable was appearing when this race came along. Now first things first i unloaded a neat 1,000 bucks on Frano Tinman and i'm going to explain why.

Drumfire had recent winning form, had run home in 28.0 neat leading and was facing okay opposition. While Franco Tinman had also been squaring off against good opposition but he's a sit sprinter which is good and bad. For one they don't win often which inflates the price which makes people correct in most instances but not this one! Anyway Franco had run a close second to i think was it Saint William in roughly a 28 split as well.

Drumfire clearly showed in his recent runs that he struggled when he couldn't lead and get his own way. Pretty much a completely different horse when he can't find the lead. Desperate Housewife was in the race, she pings the gate, she's a leader and i knew she wouldn't hand up and was drawn underneath.

They all killed each other in front, Franco Tinman waited smoking the pipe, swept over them and won by about 6m, might be less but it seemed that way as he them covered well before the corner!

Every other runner had struggled to break 29 seconds from memory so regardless, having over a second on your rivals + facing off against your main rival who can't work should be a near win every time barring mistakes.

FT paid about 3.40 here, paid about 50c more in NSW, i may have effected the price a little!

Another shorter story! Shallow Temest, same time era, at Redcliffe, ran close up in sub 29 his previous run. Squared off against complete duds, had a grand on, he sailed away and put 15m on them before the final bend. The rest were hopeless.

He paid over 3.00 i think.

Times do play there role if one can be patient enough and look for large discrepencies between runners.

So anyway what does this have to do with here and now. Well obviously a lot of horses need to run a certain way and the bigger the difference in final splits, the better the selection. In fact i'd even go as far to say a good bet, a real good bet has over a second on his rivals after the speed map and adjusting in a horses preferred running.

Dunno if i can be bothered going into detail now for tonights card, i may or may not but even yesterdays results, the winner nearly had it every time if i actually bothered to look at every runner instead of saying "ooh he lost to this and ooh he beat that" In fact most winners were drawn better and had been facing good opposition as well as well as having good sectionals.

Have to go over every single runner in detail to take this seriously.

[Oaksnaf]

The average speed of a harness race is around 45kmph? Does that sound right?

If so. A second is what, worth 13l.

Thats a big margin to find in terms of stats between one horse against the rest.

Mind you, if your talking about racing patterns. I would be inclined to believe that different positions suit different tracks and are more likely to be a winning chance.

Mr Danger Mouse.

What would be the rough strike rate of a leading FAVOURITE winning?

[Danger Mouse]

You may be right but i use my own system for working out distance to a second and needless to say your not even close but again you may be right but not the way i do it. Vastly less then what you put up.

Favourites leading? I don't know as i see a lot win and a lot of false favourites lose.

[Oaksnaf]

45kmph is 12.5mps.

Does that sound closer to you what your looking at?

[the good maggot]

If a horse is running a 2 minute mile, its covering 13.4 metres per second. When doing the form it's best to think of this as the distance between the leader and the horse 4 back on the pegs.

[Danger Mouse]

2 winners, a second, 2 thirds, a fourth and 2 closing runs from last and both winners were short so another meh night!

Tonight, no time to do much of anything, not bothering with times or opposition tonight, going to look at gate speed and whos been racing tough on the speed.

Goldie

Race 1 - Glen Branach - On his recent runs, hes a moral the place at the very least. Shouldn't have to many worries working up 3 wide against this lot, might even get the drag up if Walker Park goes first. Horse with the best gate speed is Classic Hero. Not the greatest race to start with going for a tough grinder drawn the back row.

Race 2 - The Stormy Seas - Honest on pacer, found a couple of really good ones on his back at both his recent losses. Not the case tonight. Best gate speed? Umm all about the same 1,7,8,10 all similar i guess.

Race 3 - Motu Armbro Scott - Same as Hi Jinks in ability but he'll pay more. He'll have to run him down and the rest though, never easy from the handicap.

Race 4 - Heza Wonder - Brilliant gate speed, beaten by far better horses last start. Lord Bronson had the perfect trail and couldnt run him down. Moral bet!

Race 5 - Sunanna Asset - Think i'll get 20.00 again? DOUBT IT! Good gate speed, can put himself into the race. Was dead set bolting on the corner last start when he won. Only vice with this horse is though, it seems he needs cover in his races. Hopefully Poetic Device can give him the trail up.

Race 6 - Justa Party Boy - Led, just run down by multiple recent winner Bonny Lea. A lot depends if he crosses Little Trump cos if not then that brings Sundebt right into the race. Looks between those 3.

Race 7 - Melton Sotera - Great gate speed but not drawn so well. A lot here depends on Dreamovmine crossing Suntasic Warrior. Actually might not be so bad if they declare war on each other! Fingers crossed! She ran down Terranora 2 starts ago and faces similar shit here.

Race 8 - Tiger Island - Taken on last time, got through and just missed, hopefully holds the lead here, good chance you'd think.

Thats a very quick look at tonight....

Harold Park

Race 1 - Flamin Yomax
Race 2 - Tiamour - OBVIOUSLY it all depends on him finding the lead. Love him to do so without doing to much work cos i think hes been going great, just needs the lead. Kenmore Atya i also like as well as Cosimo Bromac with his great turn of speed.
Race 3 - Iron Hudge - Best gate speed, best horse full stop. Shithouse first up but small field with cover may see an improved run.
Race 4 - Hezgotattitude - Moral, should lead and win.
Race 5 - Ace Kriden - Ernies Keep also a show as hes got great gate speed but goes better with cover, small field suits.
Race 6 - Jaccka Singh - Should lead and win which makes him a moral, if he doesnt lead, shoot the driver!
Race 7 - Earldom - Hes just better then these. Dougie is pretty nifty when he wants to fire.
Race 8 - Kid Courageous - Well obviously he and ES are both going great guns but gee how many horses can drop Alberts Charm like that run 2 starts ago. Dead set flying.

[Danger Mouse]

3 winners last night, found a few long shots in my descriptions but alas still not beating da tab!

As for the morals, well f me! Hezgotattitude is a disgrace! Third to them, come on! I guess those 2 have hit super form espec SOM who wasn't do a hell of a lot, yet now all of a sudden is a fast horse who can work?

Earldom - What the!

Heza Wonder - Won.... JUST .... WHAT THE!

Kid Courageous - What a horse since the STABLE CHANGE.... SHIFTY! Going to win plenty more!

Iron Hudge was the best run last night, went down narrowly at good odds in a fast run race. That's more what we are accustomed too!

----------------------

Tonight, i dunno what i want to do, no time again, haven't looked at the form really, so this should be a struggle again! Might er go on they beat on previous wins AND see if they can get the same sort of run they like which means i can do the form pretty fast. This excluded recent bad form.

Albion Park - Home of heroes and thieves!

Race 1 - Lastofthefarm - There's a few i can go for but f it, i'd rather go the outsider and lose! Going to go on his win over Phevos who is flying and should have won last start. Watch the replay on the final bend, that sharp saucer track corner beat him, only reason. A number of good chances though led by 1, 2, 4 and 6 ON WHO THEY BEAT.

Funny horse Lastofthefarm - Has his moments when he races really well when it's unexpected and other times he has no heart and finds nadda. So in that regard and seeing as Gracious Legend probably leads unless Conquistare is boomed out the gates then he should be good odds of around 20-1.

Perfect result would be if Conquistare was hammered out. This horse did cross Kikuyu and Cynical View 3 runs back, the latter a brilliant beginner. Then hands up to me! I'm prolly dreaming though!

Pefect Unicorn - Being supported, last win over 2 soft horses who never win and he's a leader who isn't leading here! I take him on with confidence!