We could miss the finals

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Hawkers

Hawkers

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Feb 18, 2005
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We have two tough games next and it's possible we won't win either of them and then there is the real possibility of not being in the finals.

Anyone know if we can lose these two and still make it?

To be honest I've said all along this season that we are playing a year ahead of ourselves.
Regardless of our final ladder posistion it's been a top year so far

Go Hawks!
 
We can beat the dogs, lose to Sydney and still finish top 4 depending on results. Win both we are top 4 win one we are a 50/50 chance. Losing both is not an option!
 

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Our percentage holds us in pretty good position to make the 8. Only teams that can knock us out of the 8 are the Lions and Bombers. Either must win both their games and by decent margins to overtake our percentage. Don't think Bombers can do it, they are a fair way behind, but the Lions definately a shot with only 4% behind.

Lions play Adelaide away next week, then Geelong at home. If they loose either then we're safe.

Bombers play Richmond next week then West Coast in Perth. I doubt they'll be in with a chance.

Going to be a tight finish..... :eek:
 
Hysteria aside we won't miss the finals.

Worst case scenerio....

Round 21

St K def. WC
Kanga def. Carl
Frem def. Melb
Adel def. Bris
Syd def. Coll
WB def. Haw
Port def. Geel
Ess def. Rich

Rd 21
1 Geelong 21 17 4 0 2381 1570 68 151.6
2 Port Adel 21 14 7 0 2205 1937 56 113.8
3 West Coast 21 13 8 0 2009 1828 52 109.9
4 Kangaroos 21 13 8 0 1990 1901 52 104.6
5 Sydney 21 12 8 1 1929 1613 50 119.5
6 Hawthorn 21 12 9 0 1968 1756 48 112.0
7 Collingwood 21 12 9 0 1920 1937 48 99.1
8 St Kilda 21 11 9 1 1789 1828 46 97.8

Round 22
Adel def. Coll
St K def. Rich
PA def. Frem
Ess def. WC
Bris def. Geel
Syd def. Haw
Kanga def. WB
Melb def. Carl

Round 22
1 Geelong 22 17 5 0 2466 1685 68 146.3
2 Port Adel 22 15 7 0 2314 2028 60 114.1
3 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2105 1986 56 105.9
4 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2044 1698 54 120.3
5 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2094 1943 52 107.7
6 St Kilda 22 12 9 1 1904 1913 50 99.5
7 Hawthorn 22 12 10 0 2053 1871 48 109.7
8 Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2005 2052 48 97.7

At worst we are assured of finishing 7th (thanks to our percentage) and playing a final at the MCG, if St Kilda loses to West Coast next week - which is likely, the worst case scenerio is a first up elimination final between Hawthorn (6th) and a shakey Collingwood (7th) at the MCG, with the winner probably playing the Kangaroos in the Semi Final at the MCG and Geelong at the MCG in the Preliminary Final.

To be honest its not a bad run in if we were to finish 6th or 7th...

If results fall our way, we can sneak into 4th with a win next week - even if we get belted by Sydney in the final round.

Its time to relax.
 
t3te50 said:
Our percentage holds us in pretty good position to make the 8. Only teams that can knock us out of the 8 are the Lions and Bombers. Either must win both their games and by decent margins to overtake our percentage. Don't think Bombers can do it, they are a fair way behind, but the Lions definately a shot with only 4% behind.

Lions play Adelaide away next week, then Geelong at home. If they loose either then we're safe.

Bombers play Richmond next week then West Coast in Perth. I doubt they'll be in with a chance.

Going to be a tight finish..... :eek:
Click to expand...

Not only that, you've got assume Collingwood will win against Adelaide and Sydney - which they won't, and St Kilda will defeat West Coast next Friday Night.

We are probably safe in the top 6, even if results don't fall our way.
 
shotta said:
We can beat the dogs, lose to Sydney and still finish top 4 depending on results. Win both we are top 4 win one we are a 50/50 chance. Losing both is not an option!
Click to expand...


we have to beat both if we are to be top 4........

our last game againts sydney could determain top4 or bottom 8............

we must use the doggies game as a percantage booster to try and garuntee top 4.........
 
yeah i agree, pretty much no chance of missing top 8.

it's a pity about todays result, if had of won, and beaten the doggies next week we probably would have stitched up 2nd spot. coulda woulda didna.
 
Hawkers said:
We have two tough games next and it's possible we won't win either of them and then there is the real possibility of not being in the finals.

Anyone know if we can lose these two and still make it?

To be honest I've said all along this season that we are playing a year ahead of ourselves.
Regardless of our final ladder posistion it's been a top year so far

Go Hawks!
Click to expand...

Dont be silly, we played stupid footy in the last half and just missed out, expect a different side this week against the dogs.

umpires were crap but
 
When Sydney beat Collingwood next week we are guaranteed of playing finals.

Beat the Dogs and beat the Swans we could still be second.

I would like to see us playing Geelong Round 1 please.

I have had a good look at the predictor and am concerned if we cant beat the dogs we might play Syndey in Sydney 2 weeks in a row!
 
col44 said:
When Sydney beat Collingwood next week we are guaranteed of playing finals.

Beat the Dogs and beat the Swans we could still be second.

I would like to see us playing Geelong Round 1 please.

I have had a good look at the predictor and am concerned if we cant beat the dogs we might play Syndey in Sydney 2 weeks in a row!
Click to expand...

If Collingwood beat Sydney, we beat the Bulldogs, Geelong beat Port, Carlton and/or the Bulldogs upset the Kangaroos, St Kilda AND Essendon upset the Eagles, Fremantle upset Port AND we don't get smashed in Sydney, by my calculations we will finish 2nd with 13 wins and a strong percentage.

Make of that what you will...

Or we could just win in Sydney and cut half of it out ;)
 

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Linda Crescent said:
I'm very, very anxious about Round 22. Can't see us winning and I reckon the Swans will get our top 4 pozzie as a result.
Click to expand...

Sydney are nearly out of the runningfor the Top 4 spot. Your main competitor for the top 4 spot is us. Assuming Geelong, West Coast and Port make it, then it is essentially between us 2 and the pies to fight out the remaining spot.

If we win both matches, you simply have to win both and you get the 4th spot, and a first week Qualifying final against the Cats. It will all come down to the final Sunday, where you guys play the Swans and we play the Dogs. The looser of the Swans and Pies will eliminate themselves from the Top 4 running, and the Pies would need a huge % booster against the crows or swans to get the top 4 spot.
 
Anti Gold Coast said:
Sydney are nearly out of the runningfor the Top 4 spot. Your main competitor for the top 4 spot is us. Assuming Geelong, West Coast and Port make it, then it is essentially between us 2 and the pies to fight out the remaining spot.

If we win both matches, you simply have to win both and you get the 4th spot, and a first week Qualifying final against the Cats. It will all come down to the final Sunday, where you guys play the Swans and we play the Dogs. The looser of the Swans and Pies will eliminate themselves from the Top 4 running, and the Pies would need a huge % booster against the crows or swans to get the top 4 spot.
Click to expand...

You north fans should be feeling more relaxed than us at the moment.
You have the blues who you could turn into a real percentage booster, as they are tanking and you easily have the doggies covered so that might also be another percentage booster.
We have the swans in sydney which will be one of the toughest games of the year for us as we will be terrible at that ground.
Even the dogs game is making nervous as they play the dome well and will be hungry to cause an upset. I just hope the hawk fans get behind the team this week and flock out to the dome for a change and outnumber the dogs fans.
Overall I can't actually see us overtaking the roos unless the dogs upset you in R22.
Top 4 will probably be Geelong, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Sydney
 
The great thing is our percentage. That is what will get us through..

BUT..

If St.Kilda lose on Fri, we cannot go out of the 8. Go West Coast..

All this can be put to rest by just beating an ordinary looking Bulldogs who cant make the finals.

But, it would be good knowing, coming inot Sunday game, that we are already there..

Go West Coast..
 
if saints and crows win the next 2 depending on margin and we lose the next 2 we could fall out of the 8, the crows are the biggest threat coz they have a good percentige, cant beleive i am saying this but go pies againts swans and crows:thumbsu:
 
Nightwolf_69 said:
The great thing is our percentage. That is what will get us through..

BUT..

If St.Kilda lose on Fri, we cannot go out of the 8. Go West Coast..

All this can be put to rest by just beating an ordinary looking Bulldogs who cant make the finals.

But, it would be good knowing, coming inot Sunday game, that we are already there..

Go West Coast..
Click to expand...

Have you lost it, I'm barracking hard for the saints on friday night. If we can't win one of our next two do we really deserve to be a top 6 or top 8 team? If the eagles loose and so do port(vs geelong) and we win which we just have to then we are second again with destiny back in our own hands vs the swans. Swans vs pies is the game I really don't know who to barrack for in, I'm thinking the pies with the hope the crows will knock em over in round 22.
 
we have been top 4 the whole year if we fall out of the top 4 now it will heart breaking.
in saying that we a top 4 still so we must be doing something right.
we must win the 1 st qtr against the dogs, these 1st qtrs are killing us. anynews on ruffy ?
 
phillm1 said:
we have been top 4 the whole year if we fall out of the top 4 now it will heart breaking.
in saying that we a top 4 still so we must be doing something right.
we must win the 1 st qtr against the dogs, these 1st qtrs are killing us. anynews on ruffy ?
Click to expand...

Anyone with any news on rougie/hodgy and did anyone actually see with their own eyes the ossie report today and if he is in strife.
 
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