My very early, and very amateur Draft preview

This was originally going to be in reply to the Selwood thread, but I decided to give it its own thread:

I would suggest that the relatively clear top 6 at this stage is:

-Bryce Gibbs
-Scott Gumbleton
-Lachlan Hansen
-Mitch Thorp
-James Sellar
-Matt Leuenberger

Those 6 are highly rated enough that with three picks between us and the top 6, if any of them fall out of that space, they will almost definitely be picked up with picks #7, #8 or #9, especially with Geelong, Richmond and St Kilda all having a need for talls.

Suffice to say, if one of these 6 is available when we pick, it will be a very tough choice to pass them up, simply on a "best available" pick - And we don't have a talented enough list to be passing up superior talent; we could make use of any one of those 6 anyway.

This means that if anyone from the next group jumps up into that top 6, it doesn't really change much, because the person that drops out will still be picked up before we pick, in all likelihood.

The next bunch is probably a group of 4 or 5 or so:

-Joel Selwood
-Albert Proud
-Jack Riewoldt
-Leroy Jetta
-Clinton Benjamin

Realistically, there is absolutely no chance that we pick up Clinton Benjamin, IMO, but he does belong in the same group in terms of where he is likely to be picked.

If we end up with anyone out of Proud, Selwood, Riewoldt or Jetta, I think we would be quite happy with that. Given that there are 10 players that we would be happy to pick up, I'd suggest that with Pick #10, we should have a crack at a good player.

However:

Most importantly of all, however, is to remain calm regardless of what happens.

Remember that last year there were people saying Hine should be fired for not picking up Xavier Ellis and Shannon Hurn. People were suggesting that the guys we picked weren't good enough, completely disregarding the fact that they'd seen Hine pick up some quality smokeys in the past.

So nobody is allowed to complain about the guys we pick until after the draft, under the joint "Daisy-Rusling" rule. Nobody expected Daisy to be that good at pick #2, and nobody even knew who the hell Rusling was, but they've each turned out to possibly be the best player picked in their drafts.

Just as an addition to this, I'd consider the next group of guys in terms of talent to be:

-Tom Hislop
-Eric McKenzie
-David Armitage
-Ben Reid
-Clayton Collard

We could use any of those guys, and they are all talented, but I would suggest that no more than 1 of them will be off the board when we pick, so it might be an issue of picking better talent.

However, if we go with one of those guys, it wouldn't be totally unreasonable.

Good preview, although I think your last sentence is a bit premature and OTT.

On Benjamin, why would he not be a chance?

And Collard seems to be one who's constantly in the mix, is he not in your sights?

FIGJAM said:

Good preview, although I think your last sentence is a bit premature and OTT.

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Hey, who asked you?

FIGJAM said:

On Benjamin, why would he not be a chance?

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1: I think he's very similar to Rusling in terms of AFL potential.

2: We're still trying to mould a team, and I don't know that we'd be able to give Benjamin the kind of niche that he will need at AFL.

FIGJAM said:

And Collard seems to be one who's constantly in the mix, is he not in your sights?

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I just have Collard in the next group in terms of talent - I couldn't imagine him going ahead of Jetta or Proud. Proud has the same size and speed, but is harder at the ball, and Jetta is just quicker and silkier.

Of that list of 5. I'd want Selwood. Out and out midfielder and not a forward/mid like Didak,Thomas,Egan.

Where do you rate Daniel Connors and Ricky Petterd VV?

Wiseby on Benjamin:
"Forced to play CHB but is more of a wingman or flanker. Struggles to win enough of the ball and is quite outside"

On Collard he said:
Nice skills, vision and awareness, seems wasted across HFF. Really needs to become a genuine on baller. Has enough talent for clubs to get excited"

On Jetta
"Big reputation, but is quick without being expolsive, plays too wide and is to hit and miss with his kicking"

Anyone know who Wisbey rates as his Top 3 this year?

Jetta not explosive? I'd say he is every bit as quick as Aaron Davey and could go close to breaking the 20m time at the draft camp, he is as quick as anyone.

I'd say Collingwood will pick one of Selwood, Proud or Leuenberger, depending on what's available.

macca69 said:

Jetta not explosive? I'd say he is every bit as quick as Aaron Davey and could go close to breaking the 20m time at the draft camp, he is as quick as anyone.

I'd say Collingwood will pick one of Selwood, Proud or Leuenberger, depending on what's available.

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Selwood for mine. IMO, Leuenberger and Proud will be gone by the time it's Collingwoods first pick.

philhawk said:

Anyone know who Wisbey rates as his Top 3 this year?

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Gibbs
Gumbleton
Hawkins (f/s)
Hansen

But that was a couple of months ago

HugeBluesFan said:

Selwood for mine. IMO, Leuenberger and Proud will be gone by the time it's Collingwoods first pick.

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Selwood will go to Geelong with Pick 7 now methinks. Albert Proud looks like the one the Pies will pick up.

philhawk said:

Selwood will go to Geelong with Pick 7 now methinks. Albert Proud looks like the one the Pies will pick up.

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Can't see that happening tbh. Geelong will be after pace, so Jetta and Proud (maybe even Benjamin) look like going there. Although Leuenberger and Sellar would be a chance to slip to 7, and if that's the case, Geelong would be a huge chance to take one of them IMO.

HugeBluesFan said:

Where do you rate Daniel Connors and Ricky Petterd VV?

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Not far off these guys - Preliminarily at #17 and #21 respectively.

Can I ask,

What is your Top 10 looking like, Vinnie?

philhawk said:

Can I ask,

What is your Top 10 looking like, Vinnie?

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Nothing too surprising, although I think you'll be interested to see who's outside of it

Pienight said:

That's because Colin Wisbey had Hurn at number 1 and pasted Thomas and Pendlebury, the forums exploded with anger and sniping...

shocking calls by the Wiz, even worse he never owns up to a bad call, take Brock Mclean for instance
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/20...?from=storyrhs

Now evidently the imposter launched into a long winded spiel pointing out the few positives Colin had mentioned about Brock...
which is exactly what Wisbey does whenever challenged on his bad calls... Hmmmm

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At least Wiz is willing to be honest about what he sees in his opinion.

I'd rather a guy who says something different and gets it wrong some of the time.

The fact of the matter is, unless you agree with what happens in the draft, you're going to be wrong most of the time, because in the end, nobody is going to be better at the draft game then the professionals.

vinnie_vegas69 said:

Nothing too surprising, although I think you'll be interested to see who's outside of it

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Cmon! Spill the beans!

good job vv - i'm with you - not so sure benjamin will go as high as people think.

I think we will be left deciding btw Proud and Selwood and for it 50:50.

I said it last year and I will say it again this year - very keen for us to trade into the top 20 for at least two picks.

wanted to do it last year to ensure we snared N.Jones but it wasn to be.

I think if we could get one inside the top 10 for Reiwoldt or Thorp, then take proud or selwood at 10, have 2 btw 10-20 you would seek out Pettard and Tippett.

Tarrant is the bait for me.

Murray said:

Gibbs
Gumbleton
Hawkins (f/s)
Hansen

But that was a couple of months ago

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Disagree Muzz. He's rated Sellar top 3 all year, and a couple of weeks ago said his top 3 was in no order, Sellar, Gibbs and Hansen. He said Hawkins would be worth a top 5 pick.

I still reckon he'll rate Sellar #1, despite his form being up and down.

Snoop Dog said:

good job vv - i'm with you - not so sure benjamin will go as high as people think.

I think we will be left deciding btw Proud and Selwood and for it 50:50.

I said it last year and I will say it again this year - very keen for us to trade into the top 20 for at least two picks.

wanted to do it last year to ensure we snared N.Jones but it wasn to be.

I think if we could get one inside the top 10 for Reiwoldt or Thorp, then take proud or selwood at 10, have 2 btw 10-20 you would seek out Pettard and Tippett.

Tarrant is the bait for me.

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Snoopy, in order:

at 10 Proud or Selwood? Hope so.

last year Jones or Douglas? Was hoping Douglas. Small but the wheel will turn. I think it has already turned a bit by end of this year. New total football style could come to = total burnout by finals time. Netherlands invented total football/soccer style = never got them to the world cup win. Still need some feed skills and an x-factor that can't be predicted.

Yeah, hear you re trading Tarrant. Love accumualting great pick options for CFC too. Got anyone else in mind to take second best defender (or even the best one if Rocca's out)? Is Rusling there next year up to kicking Taz's 36 and goal assists yet? Taz himself took forever years to even get to that standard (a skinny tall runt, let's go home, smoko/boozo, probably not too mentally focused, may mentally prefer a smoke or drink now before kicking for goals as he's maybe accustomed himself now to handling stress, and yet is a great field kicker more than ever where the stress isn't between his pressured ears).

Not sure if I miscounted but your last para has us getting an inside 10 pick {plus our 10} then two more between 10-20 {oops, apologies, perhaps you meant to include our current 10 within that phrase?} and then get these three extra picks through a Tarrant trade? Woah, big Tarrant.

I suspect we will need to play Anthony/O'Brien even Toovey next year while we have Wakelin on a one year "teach them all you can, and we play you when we can" one-year last contract.

Likewise with Burns - enjoy the pinch-hitting and bench as you coach our pick 10 extractor/playmaker pick.

You have lots of other turnovers that giddy me a bit. Clokes 1 and 2; Lonie; Licca; Lockyer; Lonie. yes, but. The only but is that we need a ruckman who can FIRST ruck next year. If any of those tarde ideas produce that end then more power to you. If there were lots of FIRST rucks around, then St Kilda would have had a premiership or two lately.

JCloke in deals for Beau McDonald, Knobel or CCloke for Brooks will all be for SECOND rucks. Everitt's "heart" ain't with us (see: Sydney), any more than Aker's appears to be. Good, let it be.

Perhaps your idea of Tipper rnd 2 and rookie a ruck beefcake (Jacobs? Hardy?) is the way.

Next we will need to speculate life beyond MM himself and if at end of 06 or 07 our mentor will change to a different style of football needs. Still, it would be good to give Nathan by 07 a FIRST ruck, an up and coming extractor/ playmaker, and some more pace in midfield.

My first and possibly only post in this august forum. Glad to have come across this thread, as I was going to quiz you about your views on EBW, VV69. Ok, so I get your view that the 2nd tier of players comprises

-Joel Selwood
-Albert Proud
-Jack Riewoldt
-Leroy Jetta
-Clinton Benjamin
and of these 5, the two that most meet our critical need for an inside mid are Proud and Selwood. So what happens if both are snapped up early? Are the other 3, so far in front of the third best inside mid in the draft (presumably Tom Hislop), that we'd be crazy not to take Jetta, Benjamin or Reiwoldt? Or is the difference only marginal? What would you do if Selwood and Proud (and the top 6) are gone by pick 10?

Mark Dubya! Slumming it I see.

What's an "August forum"? Should we be offended??

JtP

Mark W said:

Ok, so I get your view that the 2nd tier of players comprises

-Joel Selwood
-Albert Proud
-Jack Riewoldt
-Leroy Jetta
-Clinton Benjamin
and of these 5, the two that most meet our critical need for an inside mid are Proud and Selwood. So what happens if both are snapped up early? Are the other 3, so far in front of the third best inside mid in the draft (presumably Tom Hislop), that we'd be crazy not to take Jetta, Benjamin or Reiwoldt? Or is the difference only marginal? What would you do if Selwood and Proud (and the top 6) are gone by pick 10?

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I'd suggest that we would most definitely be crazy not to take Riewoldt in the event that he was available and Proud/Selwood weren't, as he is a real talent, and the kind of player we could definitely use.

However, the toss-up between Hislop and Jetta, for example. is a conundrum, and an interesting one to think about.

Hislop fits the mould of what we need pretty much to a 't', but Jetta is just so talented, and realistically, it's not as though we are overloaded with pacy guys that have freakish skills and genuine midfield potential.

Hislop, however, also has less risk involved in terms of how he'll develop. You don't want to spend pick #10 on Jetta and have him only ever end up a HFF. If you take Hislop, you can be assured that you are getting a bona-fide midfielder.

In the end, I'd probably bank on the potential of Jetta, because realistically, he could always be traded if he ends up being good, but not what we need, and at #10, he would be excellent value.

Benjamin on the other hand, I would probably not take, especially since one out of Gibbs, Hansen, Gumbleton, Thorp, Sellar, Leuenberger, Selwood, Proud, Riewoldt or Jetta would obviously have to be on the board. He's one that we have multiple similar facsimiles of, as he is somewhat in the middle of Egan and Rusling in style.

My little short list of who I would actually want Collingwood to take, in my opinion, it would probably be something like:

#1: Lachlan Hansen

He'd be James Clement + Presti - General of the backline and #1 defensive stopper. He's mine and many other people's #1 overall.

#2: Bryce Gibbs

If you can add him to the midfield, you do it. Simple. He'd take over from Buckley.

#3: Scott Gumbleton

Not exactly what we need, but there's a wide gap in talent between these three and the rest of the draft - And the rest of the draft is STILL above average. Just goes to show how good these three prospects are.

#4: Albert Proud

Conversely to Gumbleton, he IS exactly what we need - Pace, aggression, skill. Reminds me of Shaun Burgoyne.

#5: Joel Selwood

Classiest inside player in the draft by a mile. The only reason he's not ahead of Proud in my preferences is that he doesn't have the pace that would help us.

#6: Matt Leuenberger

Super talented, and we definitely COULD use a ruck, although we don't expressly need a super-talented one - Just a serviceable backup.

#7: Mitch Thorp

Talented and versatile tall. He has shown he can play back, or even as a tall midfielder. You don't pass on talent like his.

#8: Jack Riewoldt

Again, another talented tall who could develop as a CHB or even as a forward, if we move Travis back.

#9: Leroy Jetta

Quick, skilled, freakish, and actually has a reasonable frame, so he won't be skinny his whole career.

#10: James Sellar

Not really what we need, but talented enough to justify taking him if he falls.

So basically, on draft day, I'd go down that list from #1 downwards, and draft the first player still on the board.

Mark W said:

My first and possibly only post in this august forum. Glad to have come across this thread, as I was going to quiz you about your views on EBW, VV69. Ok, so I get your view that the 2nd tier of players comprises

-Joel Selwood
-Albert Proud
-Jack Riewoldt
-Leroy Jetta
-Clinton Benjamin
and of these 5, the two that most meet our critical need for an inside mid are Proud and Selwood. So what happens if both are snapped up early? Are the other 3, so far in front of the third best inside mid in the draft (presumably Tom Hislop), that we'd be crazy not to take Jetta, Benjamin or Reiwoldt? Or is the difference only marginal? What would you do if Selwood and Proud (and the top 6) are gone by pick 10?

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If that was the case then I suggest Leuenburger would still be available