Impulse Trading

[daniea01]

As a first year user of this forum i was totally blown away by the amount of knowlege accesible when team selections were in full swing before round 1. It however surprises me to see the current amount of threads and posts discussing impulse trading of players that are not injured and not under-performing.

The thing that confuses me the most is trades being made that get rid of players that are ONLY performing to average that relates to their price, all for the sake of a few thousand dollars after round 3. A player you are looking to use for profit wont reach their potential price relating to their average until at least round 5 or so, this is when u should upgrade. Trading out ur origional players now that are not exceeding their previous yrs average yet (eg. foley, monfries, franklin, birchall, etc) is a waste. In my opinion it is especially stupid when ur logic for these trades is based upon a two game average or in some cases the performance in one game!

And those who are trading out gun players such as Goodes, Goodwin, Brown.......surely u picked them for the long hall?!?! On top of my above point, once they are in your team does it matter how their price fluxuates?

Im not going to go into my exact stratagy but i will say i have not made any trades yet (and had no injuries, touch wood). If you wanna see my team im happy to post it.

[DIG]

The way I see it it's actually smarter to admit your obvious mistakes and make a few early trades to get your team right while players are priced so inaccurately.

To wait until round 5 is basically saying "i got it right before round 1", and by then you're paying a premium for anyone you want, instead of taking advantage of underpriced players now.

In SC, I dumped Ball for Kerr after round 1 which i'm rapt with, for about the same price. And I'll probably make 1-2 trades of bench players today which should make me a good 400k or so. With no injuries too, I feel like i can afford to indulge in a few investments early.

[magpies03]

Originally Posted by daniea01

As a first year user of this forum i was totally blown away by the amount of knowlege accesible when team selections were in full swing before round 1. It however surprises me to see the current amount of threads and posts discussing impulse trading of players that are not injured and not under-performing.

The thing that confuses me the most is trades being made that get rid of players that are ONLY performing to average that relates to their price, all for the sake of a few thousand dollars after round 3. A player you are looking to use for profit wont reach their potential price relating to their average until at least round 5 or so, this is when u should upgrade. Trading out ur origional players now that are not exceeding their previous yrs average yet (eg. foley, monfries, franklin, birchall, etc) is a waste. In my opinion it is especially stupid when ur logic for these trades is based upon a two game average or in some cases the performance in one game!

And those who are trading out gun players such as Goodes, Goodwin, Brown.......surely u picked them for the long hall?!?! On top of my above point, once they are in your team does it matter how their price fluxuates?

Im not going to go into my exact stratagy but i will say i have not made any trades yet (and had no injuries, touch wood). If you wanna see my team im happy to post it.

I understand the point your making and agree with it to a degree. Still think now is a smart time of year to trade before the good players start going up in value but i think your right, people should jjudge players after round 2. Could you post your team? Id be interested to see it

[daniea01]

Originally Posted by magpies03

.....Could you post your team? Id be interested to see it

1. Gilbee (BAC)
2. H Shaw (BAC)
3. Adcock (BAC)
4. Wirrpunda (BAC)
5. C Cornes (BAC)
6. X Clarke (BAC)
7. Birchall (BAC)

8. Judd (CTR)
9. Rodan (CTR)
10. Rischitelli (CTR)
11. Foley (CTR)
12. M Murphy (CTR)
13. N Lappin (CTR)

14. Everitt (RUC)
15. Darcy (RUC)

16. Pavlich (FWD)
17. Chapman (FWD)
18. G Ablett (FWD)
19. O'Keefe (FWD)
20. Koschitzke (FWD)
21. Franklin (FWD)
22. Embley (FWD)
..............................

1. Riggio (BAC)
2. X Ellis (BAC)
3. L Thomas (CTR)
4. A Browne (CTR)
5. Hudson (RUC)
6. Griffin (RUC)
7. Al Davey (FWD)
8. M Campbell (FWD)

Funnily enough i have (at this stage) the same team for both SC and DT, Currently ranked 21st and 35th respectively.

By my logic i cannot see any sane reason why i would make any trades (for my team) at this stage of the comp. There would only be two cases that would force me to trade next week, these would be; injury or being able to make a direct trade to gun player from mid-range player due to price fluxuations. Im gonna be milking every dollar out of each of my trades.

[DIG]

Well, with a team like that you can argue after all that you got it pretty right from the start. There's plenty of opportunities to tweak now that would make quite a bit of money (eg. Riggio for Boyle's an easy one). But nothing that really cries out for mine.

In SC I made just one trade today - Thomas for Rodan. He'll be worth double, maybe triple soon even though Thomas has been ok. May backfire but I don't think so. I'm about 350th but had a monster week last week to come in 7th (for the week). Had i not dumped Ball for Kerr I'd be well back.

[roostertalk]

agree with you mate but it would be silly to miss out on the potential cash that some players will gain after this week.I think this is the only week that its justified though.

[Kaiser Powser]

Originally Posted by daniea01

As a first year user of this forum i was totally blown away by the amount of knowlege accesible when team selections were in full swing before round 1. It however surprises me to see the current amount of threads and posts discussing impulse trading of players that are not injured and not under-performing.

The thing that confuses me the most is trades being made that get rid of players that are ONLY performing to average that relates to their price, all for the sake of a few thousand dollars after round 3. A player you are looking to use for profit wont reach their potential price relating to their average until at least round 5 or so, this is when u should upgrade. Trading out ur origional players now that are not exceeding their previous yrs average yet (eg. foley, monfries, franklin, birchall, etc) is a waste. In my opinion it is especially stupid when ur logic for these trades is based upon a two game average or in some cases the performance in one game!

And those who are trading out gun players such as Goodes, Goodwin, Brown.......surely u picked them for the long hall?!?! On top of my above point, once they are in your team does it matter how their price fluxuates?

Im not going to go into my exact stratagy but i will say i have not made any trades yet (and had no injuries, touch wood). If you wanna see my team im happy to post it.

Well done, you have picked a good side.

Unfortunately not everyones side has had as much forsight or fortune and may not be doing as well. People therefore take this opportunity to use some early trades to buy some undervalued players before their price rises.

I am not an advocate of trading out guns but the first two rounds are the best time to buy those players whose prices are going to boom.

I can't help but feel your attitude would be completely different if your team was struggling, and some of your expensive players were averaging 50. Then you would be considering trades.

[daniea01]

Originally Posted by Kaiser Powser

I can't help but feel your attitude would be completely different if your team was struggling, and some of your expensive players were averaging 50. Then you would be considering trades, trust me.

Perhaps, but i learnt an important lesson last year, in trading too much too early. Missed out on other bargains in the middle of the year, and then also with unexpected injury wasnt about to cash in some of my cashcow reserves, which defeats the purpose of having them in the first place. There will be plenty of bargains throughout the season as players debut, these should be utilized by cashing in previous cashcows IMO.

I never downgrade players for the sake of cash, this is just too risky, even trading players classed in the same tier is risky. My theory is always upgrade. Once you have an elite player, keep him. Aim make ur money on ur bench, if you gain cash on the field its a bonus (most likely from good initial selection!).

[Kaiser Powser]

Originally Posted by daniea01

Perhaps, but i learnt an important lesson last year, in trading too much too early. Missed out on other bargains in the middle of the year, and then also with unexpected injury wasnt about to cash in some of my cashcow reserves, which defeats the purpose of having them in the first place. There will be plenty of bargains throughout the season as players debut, these should be utilized by cashing in previous cashcows IMO.

I never downgrade players for the sake of cash, this is just too risky, even trading players classed in the same tier is risky. My theory is always upgrade. Once you have an elite player, keep him. Aim make ur money on ur bench, if you gain cash on the field its a bonus (most likely from good initial selection!).

I like your thinking. In theory to keep every gun and only upgrade by using your emergency players. I try to abide by the same rules. But I just can't ignore an underperforming star player who can be traded for an up and coming star who is a bargain and will make you 150k. That is the equivalent of selling two kids for money and the new cheaper player may well score better than the player you got rid of.

[tuzz]

Originally Posted by Kaiser Powser

I like your thinking. In theory to keep every gun and only upgrade by using your emergency players. I try to abide by the same rules. But I just can't ignore an underperforming star player who can be traded for an up and coming star who is a bargain and will make you 150k. That is the equivalent of selling two kids for money and the new cheaper player may well score better than the player you got rid of.

That's true but he'll only make you that money if/when you trade him out. Until then it's only a paper profit. Like daniea last year, I also traded too many players too early and coudn't pick up players later on in the season that were going strong. And I saw my DT guns that I traded out early (due to poor form/scores) drop in value after the firs few rounds, then pick up in value later on in the year. It's a long season and trades are gold.

[daniea01]

For example: lets take a very very common trade i have noticed on bigfooty.

Foley (239000) for Fiora (202800).

At this point in time they average 66.5 and 113 respectivally.
Next week they will change value by approx +6000 and +66000 (if they score at their average)
If u made the trade AND cash in next week, great you could make almost $100000.
BUT....
1. How many will cash in fiora next week?
2. Giving each another 3 or for rounds to play footy, whats the likelyhood of fiora continuing to score that high?
3. Does foley have the potential to score higher?
My answers would be:
1. Not many
2. Not likely
3. You wouldnt have picked him unless u thought so.
So......
Now i ask an open question, after five weeks or so when fiora has come down to earth and foley has starting to score to his potential how much cash have you actually gained from that trade?

[SuperCrows]

Originally Posted by daniea01

Now i ask an open question, after five weeks or so when fiora has come down to earth and foley has starting to score to his potential how much cash have you actually gained from that trade?

If I did this trade, I would keep Fiora for as long as his value doesn't fall. So, if he scores 50 this week, he'll have 120, 106, 50. If the week after, he scores another 50, his last week 3 weeks would be 106, 50, 50. By that stage, he'll be approx 280-300k and will probably drop in price the week after. Couple his new price + the 35-40k you get from the Foley to Fiora trade, you can trade Fiora in for someone approx 330k, which you'd assume would land you a gun. That's the worst case scenerio if Fiora doesn't perform. You'll either gain a 300k+ player quicker or Fiora will keep performing well and you have yourself 40k + a bargain.

...If that made any sense.

[Drummond]

Originally Posted by daniea01

As a first year user of this forum i was totally blown away by the amount of knowlege accesible when team selections were in full swing before round 1. It however surprises me to see the current amount of threads and posts discussing impulse trading of players that are not injured and not under-performing.

The thing that confuses me the most is trades being made that get rid of players that are ONLY performing to average that relates to their price, all for the sake of a few thousand dollars after round 3. A player you are looking to use for profit wont reach their potential price relating to their average until at least round 5 or so, this is when u should upgrade. Trading out ur origional players now that are not exceeding their previous yrs average yet (eg. foley, monfries, franklin, birchall, etc) is a waste. In my opinion it is especially stupid when ur logic for these trades is based upon a two game average or in some cases the performance in one game!

And those who are trading out gun players such as Goodes, Goodwin, Brown.......surely u picked them for the long hall?!?! On top of my above point, once they are in your team does it matter how their price fluxuates?

Im not going to go into my exact stratagy but i will say i have not made any trades yet (and had no injuries, touch wood). If you wanna see my team im happy to post it.

Great post, agree 100%, and I have 16 of your players too.

[daniea01]

Originally Posted by Drummond

Great post, agree 100%, and I have 16 of your players too.

Ta, my whisper in Foley's ear really paid off tonight, im pretty sure he agrees with me aswell!