Weaver phantom draft 2007

I have been slack this year largely because there seems to be reasonably strong consenus (or a lot of people repeating other people's thoughts).

Also the draft this year looks very hard work after pick 25-30 with picks after that largely best-guess stuff.

I expect to see quite a few roughies and reclycled blokes in the later rounds and a few teams passing their last selection. I think clubs will be happier to take a reclycled bloke on a 1-year deal, than gamble on a kid and have to give him 2-years. The rookie draft will basically become and extra 4-5 rounds of the draft proper. I think it will be a good year to be a 20-year old state league player who has been playing well and praying for a chance.

It is also tough for me because I expect this year to be very WA-heavy with blokes from the fringes of the WA junior state teams being snapped up. WA was so much better than the other states and the AFL clubs are very faddish.

Another thing making things tough this year was the drought in the southern states. So many grounds were rockhard and almost every player has had leg or groin problems. It is almost impossible to know who was playing at full capacity and who was carrying something. Anyone who doesn't already have OP will probably have it by the end of summer.

The one thing the draft does look good for is ruckmen. The rovers aren't as good, there aren't too many genuine wingmen or running players. Hard work picking out a quality ruck-rover or centreman. A smattering of reasonable KP players but not outside the top-20 or 30.

Also I think the draft will go 1.Krezuer, 2. Cotchin / Morton, 3. Morton / Cotchin like most others ... but that is boring.

1. Carlton - Trent Cotchin

Yes I think Kreuzer will go at 1, but where is the fun in that? The Blues lack finishers and could do well to complement their grunts and extractors with someone who can create and take goals. Cotchin has an electrically quick footy mind that sees him move before anyone else and exceptional reading of play that is almost like he has seen the movie already and is spoiling the ending. He is two footed, quick over the import 2-3 metres to get out of a crowd and get his kick away. He has a lovely little talent for dispossessing people … he could run through a pack and come out with their wallets.

He lacks stamina and will be run down over 10 metres. Never bothered to do too much defending. If he can get genuinely fit and improve his kicking from excellent to great he could match Gary Ablett jnr. At worst he shapes as a 30 goal HFF and a talent-tease.

2. Richmond - Cale Morton

Morton doesn't play tall, but is a roaming midfielder or utility. He has great kicking, reads the play superbly and eats up spilled balls a metre off the pack. He is a hard running player with great testing for stamina who relies on his Energizer Bunny batteries to run taggers into the turf. He showed the best below-knees work and handling of anyone in the draft with a brilliant wet-weather outing in the Championships.

He has some question marks about his hardness at the contest and man. He prefers some time and space to act like the orchestra conductor through the midfield and be a playmaker more than a ball-winner. Richmond are desperate for kicking skill and genuine class and will excuse the fact that he doesn't win his own footy. Delisting Pat Bowden is the last straw, Morton will be given his desk.

3. Eagles - Matt Kreuzer

Cotchin would struggle on Subi so the Eagles are no lock for him. Kreuzer is their ideal ruckman as close to Dean Cox as they are likely to find this decade. Kreuzer runs, has wonderful skills below his knees and does not fumble. Unlike some of the spindly giraffes that pass for ruckmen he actually goes to the ball and fights to win it. His kicking is better than most junior tapmen, and he is quicker, fitter and a better reader of the play than plenty of midfielders. He is tough, he has better second and third efforts than almost anyone else in the draft pool.

Why might he drop out of slot 1? Well if you examine him as a ruck-rover he isn't as good in that role as the genuine onballers. Same with looking at him as a ruckman or as a key forward. A real risk of being a jack of all trades and master of none. Plenty see him as a Josh Fraser, me I see plenty of Brendan Lade. He will kick some goals in the long-bomb targetman role. He will get 15-20 touches roaming around a kick behind play. He will win an All-Australian jumper at 27. But even when a ruckman is that good is he worth as much as a genuine midfield match winner like Cotchin might be?

4. Melbourne - Rhys Palmer

Plenty have folk have spent the bulk of the footy season inventing reasons why Palmer should not be one of the first names called. He is 12 months older than most. He did nothing last season. He is one-sided. He thinks defence is for chumps who can't play. Eventually you have to focus on what he can do, and he can win the footy and kick goals from midfield.

Guys who can find the nugget, hit targets, and score on the run from the 50 are prized and vital in modern footy. Palmer is fit, runs hard and probably the one most likely to play quickly. He also has enough talent to slot in on a wing, back-pocket, flank, centre-square ... almost anywhere. Put Palmer with McLean and Jones and the trio blends well at a club which needs to refresh its midfield stocks.

5. Bulldogs - Dave Gourdis

Gourdis is the best key position player in the draft and certainly the best tall forward prospect. Dogs remain desperate for a marking option and Gourdis' style which is as a hit-up CHF like Tarrant will probably sit well with a team that likes to run. Gourdis is quick off the mark and has a huge motor. He is well built and an improving and long kick. He is a safe selection because even if flops up front he has a long career down back. That pace off the mark is the key. Lets him get separation on backmen, and gives him closing speed when he is defending. Unlike a few of the other touted bigmen he can actually kick a goal and finish-off his good play, but isn’t a selfish forward. Will coach-up well.

6. Essendon - Brad Ebert

Despite the blind faith of the Bomber fans - their midfield is shizenhausen. They need blokes who can play in the centre square, win the footy, and bring others into the game. All the rest is nice, but without the footy in your hands you are getting pantsed. Ebert puts the footy into his team's hands. He lacks wow-factor and is just solid in every category, but they said the same about Bartel and Jordan Lewis. Bombers need Ebert. Ebert is a bloke who can do the heavy lifting and play inside, let Watson be the handballing playmaker and give Stanton and Dyson more running room.

7. Fremantle - Chris Masten

Might be on my own but I see Masten as the best player in the draft. He will drop because he is 'just' a rover and they went out of fashion 10 years back. He gets the footy, puts his head over the agate and gets his team going forward. He is a top-line extractor with a huge workrate and great attack on the contested ball. Suggestions that his kicking or pace are dubious I think are off base. He will always look scrappier playing in heavy traffic when compared to blokes cruising around in 2nd gear. The Eagles like him but 3 could be too early. Bombers might prefer the centreman Ebert over Masten. He is a good leader who has been the most consistent junior for years.

8. Brisbane - David Myers

AFL clubs are faddish and fashion driven. One response to Days of Our Cousins may well be a trend to blokes with leadership qualities and good character. He is similar to Freo pair Drum and Mundy so it is hard to see the Dockers calling his name. The Lions could do with his play-reading ability and kicking skills. He could become a wingman in time although he shapes as a back-flanker and that might see him drop a little in favour of the corridor players. In modern footy with its switches of play and keepings off you need a calm presence who can hit targets in your defensive 50. Will go third-up Darryl White style and then become a specialist kicker in the backline.

9. St Kilda - Steve Gaertner

Awe-dropping athlete who is a freakish specimen combing huge height with acceleration and running ability. He will go higher than many think, but it will be a gamble for the club that blinks first. His ball-drop is dodgy leading to bad kicking when rushed - he needs time to steady and compensate. He has his Forrest Gump moments when he runs and runs and runs and forgets what he is doing. The very definition of an enormous raw talent who need to be harnessed. Ross Lyon will surely be tempted by the nearest thing to Goodes he will see in his Saints career. There is a lot of a young Fraser Gehrig about Gaertner, those who remember the hair-thinning trauma of watching an Eagles-era Gehrig's learning curve will have seen into Gaertner's future. Even as a 200-game vet, he will be capable of a Richo moment.

10. Adelaide - Alex Rance

The Crows build from the back. If they could they'd field 18 defenders and rely entirely on the counter-attack. Rance is a superb fullback in the making, but importantly a modern one. He can carry the ball out of defence, kick well, switch play and provide leadership and organization. Nathan Bassett is an important part of the Crows machine with his 20-mark high-possession zonal play but getting on in years, and Rance would step happily into that spot after only a brief apprenticeship. Perhaps could even develop his motor and emulate the other WA fullback they snagged in Stenglein. Mundy was the last fullback I liked this much.

11. Sydney - Patrick Dangerfield

Swans are all about stoppages and recruit blokes who go hard, put their head over the ball and are prepared to run through opponents. Dangerfield ticks those blue-collar boxes but is under-recognized for his footy smarts and genuine talent. A cameo of a season confined to the back-pocket and tagging roles couldn't disguise the promise he shows as a clearance monster and as a bloke who has the competitive streak to try and lift his side into winning positions when trailing. Might be a little too Jude Bolton for their tastes but he is certainly one who will be snagged early. I will never forget him taking the ball on the back of the square, clutching it to his chest, charging at and through two tackles, running 30m and kicking long. The best Falcon is normally very good … it is Dangerfield this year.

12. Hawthorn - Junior Rioli

Cyril was the great patriarch of the Rioli clan which is where Junior gets his old-school name from. If he was a racehorse the bloodlines would have him auctioned for a mint at the yearling sales. His year was near enough to non-existent because of injury and he rarely played at more than 50% capacity. He is lightning quick, superb in tight and lethal around the big sticks. His name has been circled in very heavy ink for 5 years – everyone knows him. The Hawks are well stocked for ho-hum through the midfield and could do with some wow. That developing forward line is also crying out for someone who can convert crumbs to majors. And if anything they lack a little leg speed. Rioli ticks all those boxes and seems a hand-in-glove selection. Already had 2 years in Melbourne that won’t hurt.

13. Eagles – Jack Grimes.

In the real world they would probably have taken Cotchin or Masten at 3, but I played silly-buggers up top. The need to replenish their midfield stocks sated they could go tall. But in this exercise they got Kreuzer and so need to get a mid. Grimes lacks true class and can be wasteful by foot, certainly not damaging tending to give off little passes and floaters. More a sharer of the ball than someone who damages himself. That said he is a tireless competitor and hard worker with leadership skills. He stays involved and never quits. In a shallow draft that ferocity will attract attention and the Eagles could back themselves to knock the rough edges off him and get themselves a solid, if unspectacular centreman. I love that he always finds some way to contribute … a tackle, a chase, a goal, a spoil. He is never spectating

14. Melbourne – Lachie Henderson

I see Henderson's inability to kick over a jam team for the bulk of the season to be good cause for him to drop away, and perhaps a lot further than even this. He has genuine height at 195cm and is a lead-mark FF who is quick over the crucial first 5 meters. He plays in front, stays in front and takes marks in his hands. He has been obliged to learn to be good at short-passing to blokes in better position so has developed a nice line in bringing other forwards into the game. That said, with little exaggeration, he couldn't kick 30m by September and was no sure thing with a set-shot 25m out dead in front. The leg injuries? Probably, so he will be taken but it will be a nervous club watching him microscopically over preseason praying that there are no more leg problems. He is no Lee Walker, but he has a favourite surgeon on speed dial.

15. Kangaroos - Tom Collier

Neither fish nor fowl? He might be a CHB or he might be a ruck-rover, but then blokes like Murray Vance came and went with that resume. Collier is a bit of a bull who rushes at the spillages and pounds long bombs forward. Not one to waste too much time with fancy stuff like thinking his way through a crowd or making decisions. Has been capable in senior company with Tassie. Fits the AFL template of tall athlete with passable skills who can be improved with coaching. Roos like to draft talls early (or trade early picks for them) and Collier shaping as a backman suits with Hansen earmarked for the front half.

16. Port Adelaide - Scott Selwood

Port might have developed a running game around fleet-footed gazelles, but at their core they love a bloke with a rough head and a penchant for standing up blokes and knocking them over. Selwood is a blunt axe. He'd sooner run into a pack than away from one. You'd love playing with him but he has to get smarter and begin doing some damage on the attacking side of the footy instead of camping on the defensive side of the stoppage looking for tackles. Kicking skills are just good, competitive streak is enormous, bloodlines are enviable. Nothing that Michael Wilson can do that Selwood couldn't match.

17. Geelong - Ben McEvoy

Cats are in gravy. Young veterans and some yet to be tested youth waiting in the wings. No glaring weaknesses and finding themselves twiddling their thumbs smugly while others recruit for need and they swoop on best-available talent who probably should have gone earlier. Cats specialise in country-bred footballers, part of the key to success is blokes that fit their country vibe. McEvoy as a ruckman forward would be good insurance in the ruck where they are one-man short with King going, also provide an understudy for power-forward Mooney with Grima let loose. McEvoy is probably cursed by not quite being a ruckman and not quite a forward in AFL ranks – I’d say he is the one to compare to Fraser more than Krezuer. Cats can wait and see.

18. Richmond - Dean Putt

So what to footy clubs want in their XMas stocking every November? pr0n and fireworks? No. Talls blokes who can run, jump, take a mark and kick it to blokes wearing the same jumper as them. Putt started the year in the ruck and was handy. Was moved out to a HFF where he was mobile and showed jaw-dropping handling at shoe-lace level for a bloke who is the right side of 202cm. He can kick. He can work as a Paul Salmon FF. Richmond need height but would not be keen on gorillas. Putt shapes as a ruck-forward who would be the perfect partner for the up-and-at-em Pattison. Temptation to address the forward and ruck weaknesses with one pick must appeal to a club reluctant to invest in traditional talls. Richmond have always been suckers for a good finals campaign.

19. Bulldogs - Thomas Bellchambers

Sensing a run on ruckmen the Dogs will pounce to get some height into their ruck ranks. Peter Street's glacial apprenticeship obscures the fact that he is edging 28. Minson seems to be on the nose with the Dogs selection committee. Even then they are thin at the bounce. Bellchambers is a tap ruckman who needs to get better around the ground. He can go forward and snag a goal which, like the Tigers, will appeal to the Dogs who will think they are double-dipping to address two needs. Clayton might want someone more mobile and better around the ground, but in this draft Putt was pinched. Personally I prefer others including Renton but will go with the consensus that says Bellchambers is the business.

20. Eagles - Tayte Pears

Probably the latest Pears should go. Some argue that Pears and Rance should be swapped. But Rance has the quickness and smarts for FB whereas Pears needs to be away from the fast-lead forwards and needs someone alongside him to coach him with his positioning and decisions. Good kicking skills, good marking, and the ability to turn attack into defence. The Eagles have never been shy about adding tall defenders and although Staker, B.Jones, Schofield and others get games ... there is still enough of an unsettled feel to the backline when you get past Glass and Hunter ... increasing the appeal of Pears.

21. Melbourne - Tommy Rockliff

Probably too early but Rockliff shapes as a draft day bolter. Well known as a bright prospect at under-16 level but missed the initial cut at the Bushrangers before forcing his way in mid-season in a real blaze of sizzling form. Not dissimilar to Cotchin but lacking the 18 months of exposure of the better known HFF. Rockliff is talented, tricky and capable around goals. But will develop into a midfielder if he can build some fitness. Give it 5 years and the club that takes Rockliff in the 30s may not be too miffed at missing Cotchin before everyone has sat down and spread out their pencils. I love a midfielder who plays with an air of cheekiness and wants to embarrass players not just beat them.

22. Eagles - Sam Reid

With a ruckman and a defender, the Eagles can go back to fortifying their midfield. I think he is a good kick, very mobile and run’s hard. The modern utility who could play ruck-rover or anywhere where you need a running player. Really flopped at the Championships where he seemed to struggle for a settled role. Needs to straighten up and attack the goals a little more, a little too happy to work from the wing to the pocket and ignore the corridor. Although his season wasn’t great his status as an Academy member and his reputation coming into the season should combine to see him taken earlier than many think.

23. Essendon - Chris Kangars

Kangars is an elite athlete, not just by footy standards, but by running-jumping go to Olympics standards. He is a runner who looks like a runner on a footy field. His kicking is so bad that he tends to find every corner to run into and then engage in a game of hot-potato, hot-potato as he dishes off hospital handballs to bemused teammates. That said he can run. The Bombers need to begin some succession planning for FB and if Dunkley and Gaspar can be 200 game backmen then there is no reason that an intensively coached Kangars can't give it a shot too.

24. Fremantle - Dawson Simpson

A throw-back to the traditional first-round ruck pick (think McIntosh). He is tall and ungainly and barely graduated from crawling in football terms. He is a dinosaur who can palm the ball, has passable skills the 8 times a game that he gets it. A little more meat on his bones than many of the junior ruckmen. That said he will be a slow-cooked meal. Freo are another of the many clubs that need some ruck depth, after Sandilands Peter Bell is next choice. Whatever room they locked Sandilands in to convert him from joke to weapon would be the ideal cell to make something of the 205cm+ of Simpson.

25. Brisbane - Cam Ward

Brisbane have a nasty habit of snagging many of the blokes I rate as sleeper bargains so might as well pencil in Ward for a trip north. Ward should be another who sizzles up the order come draft day. I can see him edging earlier. Not quite as exciting as Boak last year but could well emulate his late rise to the pointy end of the draft order. Ward was a good HBF bound for a pick in the 50s until midyear when he went forward and into the midfield and caught fire. He is bigger, tougher and more impactful than in round 1 and his rate of improvement in one season was huge. He is no James Hird but played that role for Western as a defacto CHF who would put himself into the centre square when the game called for a crucial clearance. He is not a top-20 talent yet, but is developing at a rate to suggest that he will be one of the best 10 out of this class in time.

26. Sydney - Chris Tarrants’ brother Robbie.

Back in the day where men had facial hair and women had any hair, there used to be power forwards who knocked blokes over and brought people into stadiums. Now gorillas, dinosaurs and the natural look are all extinct. Tarrant wants to be Barry Hall when he grows up. He gets whiteline fever, he barges and barrels through people, he is at his happiest slinging midget rovers through the air in graceful well-formed arcs. He plays in straight lines, takes contested marks and puts the fear of spiders into blackcurrant drinking, rice cracker eating nancy boys from private schools. If the Swans want to apprentice someone to Bazza then they can. They can make a doco narrated by Diane Fossey.

27. Adelaide - Jarrad Grant

Now Ben Reid was an outside key forward who played like a wingman and never threatened to go near a contest. He got drafted super-early and looks a natural for the Demetriou Netball League. Grant is a player who divides opinions. Some see him as the buzz who could go top-10. Some scratch their noggins wondering what the fuss is about. I am in the itchy camp. He does a bit. Moves well, presents well, gets some marks. But I always go away asking "is that all their is?" There is talent there but he really is needs to work on the quality vs quantity balance, eventually a couple of cameos is no substitute for posting some serious numbers. Apparently Scott Clayton is sold on him … personally I’d never let Clayton make a call on anyone over 6 foot.

28. Port Adelaide - Joel Smouha

Smouha will get drafted somewhere between 5 and 50 by some team or other. Yep. Helpful I know. He has 10 minutes of footy education and there are Mongolian herdsmen who have better footy smarts. Now if you can convert an Irishman into a footballer there shouldn't be too many worries about a Queenslander who has already been started. Smouha is a great athlete but marries that with a competitive streak and a bit of aggro. He doesn't stand around in a daze, but gets stuck in and gets his hands on the footy (over and over again after he drops it). The image of Smouha burned on the brain is with the ball in his hands in a pack rolling his shoulders around trying to fling blokes off him and getting pinged for holding the pill … like a dad throwing off 10 toddlers playing stacks on the mill. If Daniel Merret can make it in the AFL, then Smouha will walk it.

29. Hawthorn - Jackson Hall

Some clubs are in more need of solid citizens with leadership ability than others. The Hawks could do with someone who is noted for being a leader. Hall is best as a wingman but criminally spent a huge part of the season as a key defender fighting out of his weight class. He is a long-striding runner, with OK kicking that deserted him in the finals. The barrel is being scraped as early as the 30s in this draft and when in doubt go for the guy with some fire in the belly and a competitive streak, who isn’t a complete nong.

30. Adelaide - Steve Browne

Steve Browne is the no-extras Commodore of the draft. You’d want to be able to afford something a little more sporty, maybe convince the bank to give you enough for an import. He is a solid, unspectacular backman who gets 15 touches, uses them well and restricts his opponent. Crucially he has good results and experience against those wretched, pesky, goal sneaks that cause modern AFL teams to soil themselves. He will be a little like Chris Newman or Matthew Whelan and play 150 games and no one will care.

31. Collingwood - James Mulligan

Yes they added Wood to help Fraser. But that is still a threadbare ruck. Mulligan might be a ruckman. He is 201cm+ and most comfortable at CHB. A club that could teach Pendlebury to kick and Goldsack to play could get a huge return on an investment in Mulligan. Mulligan has a 65m hoof on him, can play short. He needs to toughen up and bulk up and be convinced that he should be a ruckman. Would be a long-term project and will cause some blushes in the crowd as he avoids contests for a while, but could really be the mid-round bargain of the draft in time. A guy his size needs to play body-on-body not take running jumps at blokes.

32. Kangaroos - Patty Veszpremi

You have to like Patty-V … or give up on life. He plays football the way you mistakenly think that you would if you were in the AFL. He goes flat-chat all the time. He accelerates when he is going towards a pack, away from a pack, towards the oranges at quarter time. Everything is turned up to 11. He is perhaps a little too solid, and the all-action style might hide a lack of pace. He can play pockets forward or back but maybe not midfield. No club has ever recruited a bloke because he plays with charisma, but it is the only way to describe the Prez - charismatic. In a fair world he'd get drafted … and by your team.

33. Port Adelaide - Ash Hockey

These clutch of picks with the non-Vic clubs could make a mockery of the mocks. If Port or the Crows have a local in mind they'll get them here. Hockey is the best performed of the country midfielders. He was capable last season on a flank, would have had his name ringed in pencil. Was the most consistent of a widely inconsistent bunch of Bushie mids. Hockey's kicking skills elevate him above the crowd. He gets the ball about as much as 30 other rovers, but he hits targets more often than not, which is a rarer ability than you might think.

34. Geelong – Clayton Hinkley

I can’t see the consensus that he is poorly skilled, I think he uses the ball well by foot and was a very good finals campaigner despite a pesky injury just 3 weeks out. Tested extremely well which should vault him up the order – guys who do well in the 20m sprints simply don’t get overlooked in a sport that emphasizes speed. Is good enough in close to find himself some space. Can run-off a tagger. Sets up goals and shapes as a handy wingman, not quite Higgins class but not a hundred miles behind.

35. Bulldogs – Scott Simpson

Back when contested marking was the number 1 requirement in a tall forward Simpson would have nudged the top-10. He is the best contested marker in the draft. Unfortunately the AFL refuse to kick to contests and expect there forwards to get into space on their own. Simpson doesn’t quite do enough away from the packs. Needs to improve his recovery, make some 2nd and 3rd efforts, win some footy with chasing and tackling. His one trick is a good one, just needs some stuff to fall back on when the marks aren’t sticking. In the AFL guys will play him tight, spoil, and make him look a clown going the other way.

36. Carlton - Ash Arrowsmith

Someone has to draft Arrowsmith but it will be like asking your crotchety neighbor for your ball back. Eventually someone will moan "oh alright I'll do it" and then shuffle off head-bowed dragging their feet. Arrowsmith was the best Vic Metro wingman which basically means he was pantsed by the WA midfield who exposed how slow the Vics were. Many things can be excused in wide players but not having jets hurts. Arrowsmith struggled after the champs and looked soft until someone put a boot in an orifice and he fired up late. Still strikes as a Fiora like luxury. OK kicking, but really hope the music stops when some other club is holding the parcel.

37. Kangaroos - Jarrhan Jacky

Clubs have been willing to take the specialist FP goalsneaks earlier and earlier. Guys with some pace, class and goalkicking smarts are valued because we are seeing so much more zones and flooding which are tougher to break down. Jacky is also a little taller than some of the typical pockets at 180cm. Unlike plenty of small forwards he is prepared to use his pace defensively and apply pressure to opposition forwards. That is crucial to stop all those back-pocket playmakers in the league.

38. Adelaide – Nick Murphy

Logic demands that some SA players will get drafted and the ones most likely are the ones that can run and kick. Murphy fits that bill and the Crows are built to run. Turned in a good 3km time trial which showed endurance but he lacked a little zip. Will be in the mix somewhere because 187cm wingman with good athleticism are prized. It often happens that a state team is so poor that everyone looks bad and the clubs miss a few. The year Wells was the only Sandgroper lead to a couple like Pettigrew and M. Johnson being unfairly overlooked. SA were dire but Murphy has promise and should be excused the crimes of his teammates. Whatever happens expect SA’s worst year.

39. Essendon - Darcy Daniher

Season never clicked for Daniher. He couldn’t settle in a position and lots of games bypassed him. There were go-to guys like Trengrove, Dulic, Laidler, McKernan and Putt. Daniher was the spare wheel too often. He couldn’t quite claim a wing or a flank and couldn’t force his way into a KP. Classic tweener who has a punchy flat kick that shapes as an AFL weapon, enough for the gamble. He will do better in the run-run AFL than the kick-catch junior leagues.

40. Fremantle - Trent Dennis-Lane

OK here's the deal. I haven't seen him play only seen the goalkicking avalanche he unleashed on the WAFL colts. I don't know who will draft him or when. What I do know is that WA will be hot-hot-hot this year. I've got 15+ Sandgropers into the mix but it could well be more. WA kids learn to run and kick and play on large grounds with hard surfaces. Ideal for AFL. WA humiliated all comers at the Champs and guys who missed the cut for the State team will be factored in because being 25th best in WA could well of gotten you a gig with Metro this year. Freo dumping Collard opens up a spot as Farmer's apprentice, and the ability to kick goals is hugely prized.

41. Brisbane - Harry Taylor

Mum said listening to gossip was wrong but what would she know? Like Lane, I have missed the Harry Taylor show. While others sat in the Perth sunshine I shivered to my bones in Gippsland and Ballarat praying that someone, anyone would pick the ball out of the mud and get it approximately near a teammate. The rocking backwards and forwards with my legs clutched to my chest praying for someone to kill me. Taylor is a tall defender. Brisbane could do with a tall defender. The buzz suggests somewhere around mid-draft for Taylor.

42. St Kilda - Addam Maric

I don't really rate Maric - there I said it. Cue his fanclub. I wanted to see him do something as a midfielder and he just didn't cut it at the elite level. His best footy is a forward, and really as a small forward that you clear out the 50 for and let him go to work. He really thrives on that mismatch where he is too slick for the taller defenders and just too tricky for most little blokes. Saints have Milne to pension off eventually and could be the ones to take the goalsneak. I see Maric as a small full forward and Phil Matera, Mark Williams and Paul Medhurst killed them off.

43. Bulldogs - Brendan Whitecross

Your essay question for this year, Whitecross or Sam Reid? One can play and kick and one is a bit of a workhorse who gets around a bit. Ask 4 people and you’ll get 4 different answers to which is which. I think Whitecross butchers the ball a little too much to be a top candidate … but plenty tell me I am wrong and the criminal is Reid. Whitecross has good running ability and might be best coming out of the backline or even as a run-with stopper.

44. Geelong - Scott Thompson

Hero of their VFL premiership. Played some superb football that would have seen him playing senior footy after round 10 at more than half the AFL clubs. Cats will want him but I can't see a ready-made defender lasting until the rookie draft. If the Cats want him they'll have to name him early. Thompson compares more to Harley. Not super-tall, but uses good reading of play and positioning to mark and is a solid footballer going the other way.

45. Hawthorn - Luke Sampey

The moment I saw unmistakable parallels between Kent Kingsley and Luke Sampey I was always going to bump him down. He is a pure lead-mark forward who does nothing once the ball hits the deck. You can't get away with being that one dimensional in an AFL where kicking to leads and contests is against team rules. At 191cm he is just touching KP height. I see him having to go to the backline. He should have kicked 10 goals a game in the carnival with the supply WA had, barely made an impression.

46. Carlton - Tony Notte

A candidate to go much earlier but I can't look past the fact that he could walk through a thunderstorm and never get wet. There are heavier jockeys. The moment he ever goes near a contest he will pop a shoulder. David Bourke had courage and Josh Thurgood had ... well hair ... but the AFL chewed up and spit them both out. Westhoff might bring pencil-thin, pipe-cleaners into fashion but someone needs to strap Notte to a table and force feed him concentrated lard, or take him round Dean Rioli’s for some turtle..

47. Collingwood – Brett Meredith

Meredith is from the old Collingwood zone on the Northern suburbs where they love to scoop up their slow, nuggetty battering rams. Meredith plays hard, and is very consistent. He is never in the best 2 or 3 but then never out of the best 6. He and Cotchin swapped between HFF and onball with Meredith doing better in the bullocking ball-winning stakes and Cotchin catching the eye with the fancy stuff. Nothing fancy about Meredith but won’t let anyone down and won’t quit.

48. Bulldogs – Marlon Motlop

Every year there is a guy who has been a buzz player for 5 years, who is thrown into top-10 projections out of habit. Motlop is that man. Under-16 star who has done near enough to nothing in two years since. Yes there are injuries, and yes you need a codebook and compass to find some of the NT kids in action, but he just hasn’t done enough to judge him. He is meant to be more of a midfielder than his cousins, and I may have just been unlucky and missed his good games.

49. Port Adelaide - Paddy McGinnity

Sterling effort as a tagger for WA. In a side that was free-wheeling and breathtaking his stopping jobs might have been missed by some. Dean Polo rode a similar selfless carnival into the top-20 in a stronger draft, so wouldn’t surprise to see McGinnity singled out as the sort of team-man that coaches love and recruiters wish they could recruit more of. That said got to play on some real snails so he might have gotten a little lucky.

50. Geelong - Haelen Kay

OK. Kay can play a bit but he is a confusing one. His kicking is ordinary. He plays more as a KP player than a wingman. His best work was as a key forward but he flopped in that role against real defenders. He runs OK, but is inconsistent. Ahhhhhh. Really is in the too hard basket. An unpolished stone that needs a lot of work. There might be a gem in there, or it might be a lump of coal. Someone will back themselves to take him and for his sake he'd be hoping for a club that won't expect any return in the first couple of seasons, the premiers suit.

51. Richmond – Jarred Boumann

Richmond's trade week shopping list included a genuinely tall defender. Most of their tall backmen top-out at about 192cm. Boumann was a handy defender for most of the year. Relished his chances later in the year to play up forward and as a mobile ruckman. Those late season cameos could be enough to have some clubs believing he is more than just a tall spoiler. At 196cm he won't ruck in senior company, but for clubs looking for genuine height in a backman he could be a leading candidate. May target Coburg’s Jarred Silvester or Sandy’s Luke Casey-Leigh who is a son of the club’s ex-president.

52. Brisbane - Levi Greenwood

Greenwood could pass for two blokes strapped together. He tends to stand still and let the other 35 blokes on the field move around him. He has a thumping, flat kick. Tends to play quarterback in the backpocket. Getting the ball, taking a step back into the pocket, then unleashing a pass to a receiver. Not quite Josh Hunt or Shannon Hurn but close enough. Someone might fancy they can get him fit and maybe get a jog out of him. Utlise that surgical kicking. Eventually someone has to draft an SA player ... although Ebert on his lonesome would not be shock.

53. Melbourne - Jermey Laidler

Last year he was eye-catching when he burst onto the scene as a hard running backman. A guy who would be in the back-pocket but just as likely to sneak forward for a goal. Just what the AFL scouts want. Second season was a little disappointing because he got shoe-horned into CHF which isn’t really his spot. Quick on the lead and needed FF or the backline to show his dash. CHF saw blokes jumping on him negating his best asset. No Rusling, but similar fast-burst lead marker at his best.

54. Essendon - Al Neville

Perhaps the best VFL prospect. Starring effort for the Vics in the VFL-WAFL game put the icing on a solid resume these last 2 seasons. With Richmond and Melbourne considering him the Bombers might add a ready-made big body to help in the centre square. Kicking fell off as he fatigued at season’s end but he won’t have the same pressure and taggers in a senior side. Started out as a backman so might be the man to release McVeigh and Welsh down the ground.

55 Fremantle – Mitch Farmer

Mitch Farmer is boring. He plays well every week and is always 3rd best player for his team. When Vic Metro were playing like a train wreck he was the one player they had beating his man. The worse his team plays the more likely Farmer is his team’s best. He was a very solid backman last year without really transitioning to the midfield. Showed some footy smarts when playing hurt in the FP to pinch some goals. All footballer, very solid, very dull. You’d want him as a teammate.

56. Brisbane – Trent Zomer

Bullish CHB who charges and crashes. I was a fan my midway through the season but there was not much chatter about Zomer who was probably marked down as a man against boys. In the finals he was swung to FF and showed he had extra weapons in his backpack. A physical straight-line defender, or corridor FF. OK off the mark, goodish kicking, competitive and up for a physical contest. Added to the state screening list late so he must have finally won a fan or two.

57. St Kilda – Hugh Sandilands

Left footed utility, one of a batch of Oakleigh players who played a different position every week and suffered a little for it. Has a good leap and played his best junior footy rucking, but won’t play there in senior ranks. Key position work was a bit low-grade. At his best as a link man and running player, 190cm plus, can run and is OK on his favoured left foot without being outstanding. Fought back to finish his season reasonably after being a bit ordinary in the mid-season.

58. Adelaide – John Walker

Early season he was a run-of-the-mill tall defender. He was one of a batch of elegant running backmen in the very traditional Murray style. Then midseason he went ruckroving and put together some 20+ touch games and showed some very slick handballing highlighted by some sharp vision. The scouts would have all had to reassess him. His work at CHF in the finals was best ignored. Every club wants a 190cm+ ruck-rover and Walker will be a candidate for that role.

59. Sydney – Craig Bird

Genuine rover who gets huge amounts of the footy and takes the game on. Very solid through the hips and prefers to run through people than give off the footy. His ability to monster adults would normally be a concern but for the fact that there are none in the AFL anymore. Needs to add some science to his game. Needs to use the ball longer – too many give and goes and short passes, and far too many of his possessions are handballs. Only opens up a game after he is run through arm-tackles like they are faulty ticket barriers.

60. Geelong – Adam Donohue

Quite a few of the Geelong backmen blended into each other this season – until Donahue visited the flashy boot shop and started standing out. He plays with energy and enthusiasm across half-back. Runs the footy across lines and is OK by foot. Really is a handy allrounder without any stand-out traits. Dangerfield was the one who came to play for the Falcons in the finals, but Donahue was about the only teammate to take his lead and run ‘til he hurt.

61. Collingwood - Jaxon Barham

Quick wingman who came back for another season of under-18s as a 19 year old. Barham can be a little slow to hit top-speed and is at his best when he is already on the move and can speed past a pack or onto a loose ball. Genuine wingman, can sometimes run too far and get himself into trouble by kicking off balance.

62. Kangaroos – Wes Lammie

A 202cm ruckman and a candidate to be taken as a 19 year old overage player after a good Colts season including a good performance in a winning grand final side. Has good athleticism and pace for a guy his size but will need bulk and time. Those going to that Colts GF to see Morton would have been far more impressed by Lammie.

63. Dogs – Aaron Joseph

The best of the Tassie midfielders but is a bit of a plain-jane centreman. Lacks real polish or hurt factor. Tends to work best in tight traffic where is a ball-winner. Quick over a couple of metres and nice changes of direction and evasive skills. Disposal has to improve and he needs to go longer with his kicks. Might be one of the genuine rovers who sneaks into the draft.

64 Carlton – Travis Dulic

Solid fullback who might not have enough athleticism to appeal to the AFL scouts who prefer guys with a bit more speed off the mark. He is really more an old-fashioned man-marker but he had a good season in a premiership side and will be on the fringes on draft day.

65. Richmond – John McCarthy

Despite only managing 9 games in 2 years with the Stingrays McCarthy showed some promise when his school commitments and injuries allowed. A midfielder / winger with good balance and tidy skills. Probably a rookie candidate because he just doesn’t have enough runs on the board. When he did grace the TAC Cup with his presence he’d get his 20 touches and most of them while on the move. Two years of OP will probably scare off the AFL clubs who will want to see him play a full season before touching him.

66. Melbourne - Tom Frawley

Cousin of James, son of Tony. Was on the radar at Ballarat before following his dad to the NT and perhaps slipping a little away from the main stage. Tall wingman with just OK kicking – or at the at least inconsistent. Very Light and needs to be more physical. Footy smart and talent to work with. Being so “in the industry” will have him on the bottom rung of a lot of club’s cheat sheets.

67. Bulldogs- Jay Bowden

A lack of tall options for Tassie lead to Bowden almost being their FF, and he did better than he should in the role without ever being mistaken for Brad Johnson. That said he is good on the lead and a great mark for his size. He will play further down the ground in AFL company and needs to become a midfielder, probably forward of the ball to capitalize on his goal sense.

68. Essendon – Ryan Hobbs

Injury destroyed season but his early season form might be remembered. Can play either end and not too dissimilar to the Brown twins who got drafted last season. Solid unit with a little more quality than some other similar ones. I was surprised he handled FB well, I had him pegged as a pure FF. A little quicker than it says on the tin … and physical.

69. Fremantle – Andy Otten

Played 3rd forward for Oakleigh’s premiership team last season and was one to watch coming into this season. His coaches have given him the best shot at making the grade swinging him through the backline, onball and up forward. As a CHF he doesn’t look quite good enough. Will probably need to be settled into a midfield role and might not be quite good enough for that either. Plenty to work with and there are plenty of spots on the field for a genuine utility. Was a fringe candidate who lacked some BOG performances but finished the season well and inspired his team in a couple of fine late efforts.

70. St Kilda - Andrew Renton

I think we have all lost track of the Saints ruck stocks. There might be as many as 20 ruckmen on their list now, all of them 48 years old and taking turns to play. They surely need to stop papering over cracks and develop an actual ruckman. Renton might have gone top-30 in another year where the ruck stocks were not so deep and impressive. He was improving every week he played before dislocating his knee. Will be a late round bargain, or rookie-bargain for whoever calls his name.

71. Adelaide – David Zakharis

Wingman stocks in this draft are light without too many really showing the combination of pace, running and kicking skills. Zakharis had some good cameos and may feature in the later rounds. While he hints at some talent in truth he probably hasn’t put together enough consistently good games to be a strong draft candidate.

72. Kangaroos – Lachie Hill

At first glance looks a solidly built if ho-hum centreman but has a deceptive turn of speed and skills a little above average. Less football than some others because of private school commitments. Shapes as a true big-bodied centreman. Could do with a little more hurt in his game and is very one sided.

73. Melbourne - Stefan Martin

Late starter to footy. Went down to Old Hailebury and won the league's under-19 award pretty much on the back of 10 successive BOGs. Made the move to Sandringham where he forced his way into the seniors and played some good football as a key forward. He is athletic, mobile and an interesting prospect. Deplorable kicking has been worked on and he is approaching a status of below-average now. His Sandy coach has joined Melbourne and may make the case for Martin and rover Shane Valenti.

74. Fremantle – Ryan Blessing

Mostly a small backpocket and they rarely get drafted. One of the few to do reasonably for SA in the championships, one of those modern BP types who is capable of getting 20 touches a game and bolting away from his forward to create the loose man.

75. Adelaide – Taylor Walker

The Crows have done nicely out of the NSW scholarship scheme. Walker is a mobile, roaming, tall half-forward. Not really a contested marker or a true CHF, plays more a Steve Johnson role doing a lot of his damage after he has brought the ball to ground and switched into rover mode. Tends to play the game from side-to-side … from boundary line to CHF, or from CHF out the boundary. Really looks to use space more than make the play.

The first P/Draft to mirror what I believe should happen in the 'real world' with the top three.

Great work as usual, Weaver. I'm surprised that you have Hawthorn drafting a player whose career so far has been as a full-time forward, albeit with our third pick in the draft. Sampey sounds a lot like Beau Dowler (especially when Dowler played at Box Hill) and I wonder whether we'd take another key forward in the draft. In any event, I suspect the Hawks will be looking to use the third round pick on a certain former premiership player.

Any reason why Veszpremi dropped so far? I know a fellow Hawthorn supporter who rates him very highly.

Little Disappointed Weaver. Was expecting a better read, definatly not in the top couple of phantom drafts. but hey i havent bothered doing one so who am i to complain..

Why does every one pinhole tarrant as a gorilla fwd? he ran a 14.2 beep under 3sec 20m sprint and has great skills around the ground. and when he was used on ball and in the backline for pioneers he looked very comfortable and in some cases dominated. one person has coined the phrase gorilla fwd and every one has jumped on it. i think he has the potential to be a nick reiwoldt style player who leads up and down but can also take the big grab. i think he is a terrific prospect..

Weaver said:

9. St Kilda - Steve Gaertner

Awe-dropping athlete who is a freakish specimen combing huge height with acceleration and running ability. He will go higher than many think, but it will be a gamble for the club that blinks first. His ball-drop is dodgy leading to bad kicking when rushed - he needs time to steady and compensate. He has his Forrest Gump moments when he runs and runs and runs and forgets what he is doing. The very definition of an enormous raw talent who need to be harnessed. Ross Lyon will surely be tempted by the nearest thing to Goodes he will see in his Saints career. There is a lot of a young Fraser Gehrig about Gaertner, those who remember the hair-thinning trauma of watching an Eagles-era Gehrig's learning curve will have seen into Gaertner's future. Even as a 200-game vet, he will be capable of a Richo moment.

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Ahead of blokes like Rance, Ward, Grimes who are probably considered "safer bets", that is a pretty gutsy call Weaver.

Richo moments after 200 games is okay if you're Richo and have kicked 700, but what are the chances of this guy making it to that level?

Good work though, and a great read

Always an interesting read.
Dont think Essendon would touch Kangars because of his poor kicking.

Nice job,

I think you are right on a few key points.
Cotchin should be number 1, but won't be.
Morton in my opinion should also be taken over Kruezer.
Melbourne will definately take Palmer.
I also believe Rance will end up at Adelaide.
Henderson, if not taken bye, will slip alot.

Nice job,

I think you are right on a few key points.
Cotchin should be number 1, but won't be.
Morton in my opinion should also be taken over Kruezer.
Melbourne will definately take Palmer.
I also believe Rance will end up at Adelaide.
Henderson, if not taken bye, will slip alot.

I agree with a few key points.

1. Cotchin should be number 1.
2. Cotchin wouldn't be suited to subi.
3. Kruezer will go number 1.
4. Melbourne will 100% take Palmer.
5. I see Rance going to Adelaide too.
6. If dogs don't take him, I agree, Henderson will slip big.

I agree with a few key points.

1. Cotchin should be number 1.
2. Cotchin wouldn't be suited to subi.
3. Kruezer will go number 1.
4. Melbourne will 100% take Palmer.
5. I see Rance going to Adelaide too.
6. If dogs don't take him, I agree, Henderson will slip big.

I can't see Richmond taking Putt that early. He is not a genuine ruck or a KPF, but is in that in between class like Adam Pattison. We need to take a genuine tap ruckman and if Bellchambers was available he should be the one. Miller has also stated that we are desperate for a KPB so Pears will not be overlooked if available. Pears is a star and in my opinion he is a better prospect than Alex Rance (I would take either at pick 18).

Terrific work Weaver.

I especially like that you agree with me on pick 5!

Great stuff Weaver.

I know the draft wont go how bf expects, so you could easily be on the money.

worth the wait weaver, excellent work.

Interesting read as always, Weaver. I was hoping you would add your phantom draft to the mix.

From a pie supporter's perspective, if Collingwood were to take Mulligan, that would worry me a little. I agree that we need a fourth ruckman on our list. But the consensus on BF, and you seem to agree with it, is that he doesn't relish body-on-body contact. Given that rucks have to wear more physical battering than anyone, I'd think that'd just about disqualify Mulligan at the first hurdle.

The ruckman issue will be the most interesting factor in Collingwood's draft. I wouldn't be surprised if they left snaring a ruckman till the rookie draft.

I like the sound of Meredith. Derek Hine, however, has shown a strong preference for pace as our RM, with Stanley, Pendlebury, and maybe Cook being the exceptions. That's why our rumoured interest in Mayne and Steven seems at least superficially plausible.

Anyway, appreciate you adding your first-hand knowledge to the debate.

I really can't see Sydney taking a midfielder with our first Pick, though I do say that every year and every year we seem to pick a midfielder or flanker so you just might be on the money. I will add that our list appears set towards the drafting of a KP Talls, with only White, Grundy and Playfair as backups to the aging group of Hall, O'Loughlin, and Barry who will retire within the 3 years (with Craig Bolton and LRT in between age groups). So we need to build a spine for the future and this draft appears to be the one to do it in (or at least start building)

We need to add Key Position Tall (Defence is the area I would focus upon)and I can see us taking either Rance or Henderson if they drop to 11 (Henderson while being a forward would be too good to pass on in my opinion if he was available at Pick 11) or Pears if they don't. As for Pick 26, it will either be another Tall (unlikely, but something I would like to see with the depth we have in midfielders and flankers at the club and lack of depth in KP Talls) or a Hard running, tall midfielder.

Good effect and can understand where your coming from.

Not sure you've done your homework on Adelaide by giving us more defenders.

We are after a tough inside and fast outside midfielders and a quick forward crumber. Then a ruckman.

Been waiting for this PD.

Good effort Weaver. Cotchin or Morton to the Tigers sounds good. I prefer Cotchin.

Very nice work weaver, I don't know how you guys have so much spare time!!
Also i reckon Maric is a gun, but at least your opinion is original and not a rehash of the rest of the phantoms.

25 - Brisbane - Cam Ward.

Who is Cam Ward??????

Do you mean Callum?

Also, there is absolutely no way in this world that Marlon Motlop will be around to be pick 48.

Weaver said:

36. Carlton - Ash Arrowsmith

Someone has to draft Arrowsmith but it will be like asking your crotchety neighbor for your ball back. Eventually someone will moan "oh alright I'll do it" and then shuffle off head-bowed dragging their feet. Arrowsmith was the best Vic Metro wingman which basically means he was pantsed by the WA midfield who exposed how slow the Vics were. Many things can be excused in wide players but not having jets hurts. Arrowsmith struggled after the champs and looked soft until someone put a boot in an orifice and he fired up late. Still strikes as a Fiora like luxury. OK kicking, but really hope the music stops when some other club is holding the parcel.

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Not a chance that Carlton will take Arrowsmith. Not a chance in hell.
Still, love the write up.

Great read Weaver.