Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcomed)

[Warwick]

Well thought it was about time to put the old coconuts on the chopping board again and try and spark some debate on this board. This is my very detailed ladder prediction thread for 2008 (and I expect it to be pretty much spot on - just see prior efforts for evidence). I don't claim to know everything about every team and I can't guarantee all will be correct, but that's what you get when you give an idiot a keyboard (big shout out to toddy out there).

I am doing this before the drafts as I don't think it will change the order too much - particularly near the top. I may tweak it a fraction after the PSD. I am hoping to finish it within a couple of days, but to start us off, here is my bottom 2:

[Warwick]

16th - Essendon Bombers



Bomber fans must be getting pretty sick of their team being tipped to finish last next year - and for good reason. They won 10 games, were the 4th highest point scorers in the competition, were siting in the top 4 half way through the year before injuries struck, and still have one of the best spines in the comp. It is with absolutely no confidence that I have them finishing this low next year, and I am sure all Essendon supporters would be looking forward to bumping these ladder predictions next year. After all, recent history has shown the wooden spoon favourites tag rarely lives up to its billing (Sydney in 2003 - finished 3rd; Adelaide in 2005 - minor premiers, and Kangaroos in 2007 - finished 4th).

However, Essendon are going through a major transitional period after saying goodbye to two of their favourite and iconic sons in Hird and Sheedy. Hird also won the club B&F last year so it's not just his leadership that will be missed. New coach Knights is untested at AFL level, although it looks like he has made all the right choices so far.

And while Essendon did win 10 games, 7 of those were by 2 goals or less. This was almost the reverse in 2006 when they only won 3 games for the year, but lost 9 by less than 3 goals.

As I said, I am tipping Essendon to win the spoon with very little confidence, and it would not surprise me to see them finish just outside the 8 if they have a good run with injury. Their draw is fairly kind as well. However, their midfield looks very average, and their ruck stocks thin. Hille struggled for most of the year with form and fitness, with Laycock taking over the number 1 position. Contrary to popular belief, they do have some speed through the middle (Davey, Lovett, Dempsey, Jetta), but these players are very young. I don't buy into the theory that they will struggle because their best players are the wrong side of 30, but they will be hoping a couple of their young KPP start to stand up. If Lloyd or Lucas go down, they will be in a world of hurt.

Draw:
Play twice: Carlton, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Collingwood, Richmond, West Coast, Adelaide
Games breakdown: 11 @ TD, 7 @ MCG, 2 @ Subiaco, 1 @ Telstra Stadium, 1 @ AAMI

3 most important players:
1. Matthew Lloyd
2. Dustin Fletcher
3. Scott Lucas




Best team:
B: Fletcher, Michael, Nash
HB: McPhee, Ryder, Slattery
C: McVeigh, Watson, Winderlich
HF: Welsh, Lucas, Lovett
F: Davey, Lloyd, Gumbleton
Foll: Laycock, Stanton, Monfries
Int (from): Hille, Houli, Dempsey, Peverill, Ramanaskus, Lovett-Murray, Dyson

One to watch: Courtney Dempsey - there are huge wraps on this young Queensland lad and Bomber supporters will be hoping he gets an extended run in the midfield in 08.

Strengths: They have one of the best spines in the comp, and their forward line is magnificant.



Weaknesses: Their midfield is average. They lack a genuine out-and-out superstar in the middle, and their depth is lacking. They do have some encouraging youngsters coming through, but I can't see them making a huge impact next year.

Ins: Danniher (F/S), Myers, Pears, Hooker, Williams
Outs: Hird, Johnson, Bradley, Cole

[Warwick]

15th - Richmond Tigers



I didn't have the Tigers finishing last again because we rarely see a team win consecutive wooden spoons. But I was scratching my head for another excuse. The Tigers were poor last year only winning 3.5 games, but they were rarely blown from the park (record lost to Geelong not withstanding). Key injuries really crippled their season - and although they didn't have the worst injury list in the AFL, they simply couldn't cover the calibre of players they lost. You take Simmonds, Brown, and Coughlan from any team and they are going to struggle.

Tiger fans will be confident of a much improved year next season with the return of those players, plus the further improvement of Foley and a young defence led by Polak and Thursfield. However, Richmond just look much smaller and lighter than most other teams, and trading a top 20 pick for a similar player in McMahon just boggles the mind. Their season was probably best illustrated when Barry Hall took on and beat their entire defence in a game late in the year.

For Richmond to improve they need some of their younger players to step up. Raines stalled in a similar manner to Sherman this year but he has the talent (although dodgy disposal). Polo was also less damaging, and Tambling (despite what Richmond fans will have you believe), has shown fleeting glimpses at best. They do have some extremely talented kids in Connors and Edwards, but their KPP and ruck stocks looks ordinary. Pattison tried his heart out all year, but if Simmonds doesn't fully recover, they are in a lot of trouble.

I think Richmond will just avoid a second spoon, but not by much. Their older players are the worst in the league and they need to find some help for Richo. Blokes like Schulz and Hughes have to start performing.

Draw:
Play twice: Carlton, Fremantle, Geelong, Essendon, Adelaide, Melbourne, Hawthorn
Games breakdown: 12 @ MCG, 5 @ Telstra Dome, 2 @ Subiaco, 2 @ AAMI, 1 @ SCG

3 most important players:
1. Troy Simmonds
2. Matthew Richardson
3. Nathan Brown



Best team:
B: King, Thursfield, McGuane
HB: Bowden, Polak, McMahon
C: Newman, Coughlan, Johnson
HF: Deledio, Schulz, Morton
F: Brown, Richardson, Pettifer
Foll: Simmonds, Tuck, Foley
Int (from): Pattison, Connors, Riewoldt, Edwards, Tambling, Polo, Hughes, Raines

One to watch: Mark Coughlan – has been a long time out of the game but he was a very good player before being struck down with 2 serious knee injuries. Will take time to get back to his best, and will probably start the year at Coburg or on the bench.



Strengths: Small-to-medium forwards are the best in the league. Deledio plays best as a permanent forward IMO, and Brown and Pettifer are very creative players.

Weaknesses: As you would expect from the wooden spoon team, there are plenty. Their ruck depth is deplorable – that was seen when Simmonds went down and they need him to stay injury-free for them to improve next year. Richo also needs help from a marking forward. One of Schulz, Riewoldt, or Hughes has to stand up and take the pressure of the enigmatic star. Kane Johnson may struggle to hold on to the capataincy as well.

Ins: McMahon, Morton, Cotchin, Rance, Putt, and Gourdis
Outs: Krakouer, Hartigan, P. Bowden, Howat, Peterson

[ssfc0203]

ah, noo

i thought you'd be another of the plethora of people suggesting Sydney are going to be wooden spooners

Pretty good so far, watching and waiting!

[blynd_freddie]

Always love ya work Warwick… 15 & 16 having a slash at the sash, you’re a braver man than me, a brilliant start.

[Grimreepah]

I tend to think the bottom of the ladder is harder to predict than the top. A few key injuries could kill a season for most sides, and with teams throwing in the towel towards the end of the season, the final ladder is not neccesarily a true reflection of ability.

History shows that the bottom few sides tend to be Victorian teams, but IMO Essendon is not the worst of them and I think they will finish above Richmond and Melbourne.

[Cousin Jed]

Surely this thread should have started with last years predictions for comparison's sake??

I believe Hodge2Franklin will be happy with your prediction. Don't think Essendon will finish last, but they'll be in my bottom 5.

[Kochie 16]

**** me dead Warwick, you have way too much spare time on your hands!

[Fairley]

Originally Posted by Kochie 16

**** me dead Warwick, you have way too much spare time on your hands!

haha, sometimes i think many people on BF do

[Warwick]

14th - Adelaide Crows



My first big slider for 08 are the Crows. They are a very proud club and I don't expect to see them stay down the bottom reaches of the ladder for long. In 2007 they made the finals and were unlucky to be knocked out in the first week. They also lost 4 games under 2 goals, including a 2 point loss against St Kilda, and 1 point against Fremantle. Had they won those 2 games they would have finished in the top 4. So why the big drop?

Firstly, they have had a massive turnover of players (sure beats our exodus from last year), and the way a couple of them have left has indicated something may not be quite right at West Lakes. All up, 10 players have left the Crows - nearly a quarter of the list. They will enter season 2008 without their inspirational skipper in Riccuito, their leading goal kicker in Welsh, and their best ruckman in Hudson. Suddenly their great ruck depth looks a little thin with Meesen also seeking greener pastures. Biglands and Henschel are coming back from serious injuries, and Griffen and Maric are very raw.

I am very wary of picking the Crows to finish this low for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the Crows have never finished lower than 13th. The last time they were picked to struggle, they finished as minor premiers. Brisbane were written off at the start of this year because of the players we lost, but it just gave the young guys a chance to impress - this could happen to Adelaide as well. They also have a genuine home ground advantage with a huge number of supporters. And they don't lack class around the ground.

I just struggle to see where their goals are going to come from. They were the 3rd lowest scoring team in the comp in 07 and losing Welsh is not going help. Their stars are still fantastic, but ageing. McLeod, Goodwin, and Edwards will all be 31 when the season starts. They do have some good young midfielders led by Thompson, Knights, and Van Berlo, who will be gaining some great experience playing with the likes of Edwards and Goodwin. Rutten is also one of the best FBs going around.

I expect this will be the last year for the Adelaide team to have a crack at the flag. But I think they have missed their opportunity, and are now entering a transitional phase.

Draw:
Place twice: Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Carlton, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast
Games breakdown: 12 games @ AAMI, 1 @ Gabba, 3 @ Telstra Dome, 3 @ MCG, 1 @ Aurora, 1 @ Subiaco, and 1 @ SCG.

3 most important players:
1. Ben Rutten
2. Trent Henschel – was a gun before his injury. Will need to swap between the forward line and in the ruck.
3. Andrew McLeod – sets so much up from the backline. Needs to stay fit.

Best team:
B: Bassett, Rutten, Symes
HB: McLeod, Bock, Johncock
C: Knights, van Berlo, Edwards
HF: Reilly, Gill, Porplyzia
FF: McGregor, Henschel, Burton
Foll: Maric, Goodwin, Thompson
Int (from): Griffen, Shirley, Stevens, Moran, Douglas, Tippett

One to watch: Kurt Tippett – another highly rated Queenslander from the super draft, this massive kid should see a fair bit of game time in 08.

Strengths: One of the best defensive set-ups in the league – Rutten, McLeod, Johncock - all guns.



Weaknesses: Strikepower up forward. Opposition defenders shouldn't have too many problems dealing with Gill, McGregor, and Bock (if he plays up there).

In: Symes, Moran, Gallman, Walker, Dangerfield, Otten, Jacky, Cook, Armstrong
Out: Torney, Perrie, Bode, Hinge, Pfeiffer, Hudson, Welsh, Meesen, Ricciuto, Mattner

[Warwick]

13th - Carlton Blues



Forget the “did they or didn’t they” with regards to tanking, the fact is Carlton finished the season with 11 straight loses and came within a bee's marrage stick of winning a 3rd consecutive wooden spoon. Ratten still doesn’t have a win as coach.

However, I have tipped Carlton to improve this year (like I have the last 3 seasons), but this time with much more confidence. They have another number 1 draft pick, they have a new multi-million dollar sponsorship lined up, they get back Nick Stevens, Murphy loses the number 1 tag, and oh, they have Judd.

It will take more than the competition's second best player to lift Carlton from the doldrums and into the finals, but it will help. They have also added Hadley for some extra midfield depth, which is one area of the ground they are starting to look mighty fine. Murphy should have a ball going from the oppositions best tagger, to number 3 in the rotation. Their forward line is also filled with match winners and X-factor. Fev can goal anywhere this side of the centre square, Waite and Fisher are hard to match up on, and Betts provides the crumbing. They certainly have no problems scoring goals - they were ranked 5th in points scored. Even their ruck stocks are starting to climb. They have 2 massive man mountains in the young Qlder Hampson and Aisake O'hAilpin, however they will take time.

It is down the other end where their problems exist, and why I think they will still finish in (or close to) the bottom 4. Their backline is a mess. They conceeded 2911 points @ 132 a game last year (Richmond conceeded the 2nd most with 2537). They have some young key defenders coming through in Bower and Jamieson, and I love the big Irishman O'hAiplin, but they are still as green as anything and finding their feet in the big league. A more dominant midfield will help immensely down back, but they should still expect to see quite a bit of the pill coming their way.

Things are certainly looking up for the Blues, and I expect them to play finals before the decade is out. It won't be next year however.

Draw:
Play twice: Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood, Adelaide, St Kilda, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide
Games breakdown: 9 @ MCG, 9 @ Telstra Dome, 1 @ Subiaco, 2 @ AAMI, 1 @ Gabba

3 most important players:
1. Fevola
2. Judd
3. O’hAilpin



Best team:
B: Bower, O’hAilpin, Jamieson
HB: Walker, Thorton, Scotland
C: Simpson, Murphy, Carrazzo
HF: Houlihan, Waite, Fisher
F: Betts, Fevola, Gibbs
Foll: Cloke, Stevens, Judd
Int (from): Ackland, Hampson, Hadley, Hartlett, Jackson, Bentick, Grigg, Russell

One to watch: Setanta O’hAilpin – the big Irishman is a goer that’s for sure. I don’t know how many positions he had to fill last year, but he did the job. The bloke has a massive heart and like all the Irish lads who started the game late, will only get better.



Strengths: Solid midfield with plenty of options - Judd, Stevens, Murphy, Carrazzo, Gibbs, Scotland, Simpson, Hadley. Exciting tall forward line.

Weaknesses: Defence is a mess. Average losing margin of 45 in 2007. Do not have anyone to play on the gorillas of the competition.

In: Judd, Hadley, Jackson, A O’hAilpin, Kreuzer, Browne, Armfield, Pfeiffer
Out: Whitnall, Koutafides, Lappin, Kennedy, McLaren, Teague, Young, Raso, and Flint

[TheBrownDog]

You think Hadley will get the second best tagger?

[Warwick]

Originally Posted by TheBrownDog

You think Hadley will get the second best tagger?

No.

But Nick Stevens will.

[TheBrownDog]

Originally Posted by Warwick

No.

But Nick Stevens will.

Oh Snap. I forgot he was coming back.

I misread your post.

[Warwick]

Originally Posted by TheBrownDog

Oh Snap. I forgot he was coming back.

I misread your post.

No worries mate.

The large print, illustrated, children's edition will be out by Friday.