Attention all Dreamteamers !!!!!!!!!!!!

[happy_eagle]

hey guys, i have done a bit of research

there are a few main reasons for selecting and choosing the right player

• Player retirements - you should always look at players who have retired, and who see who may take there role.
• Different sides- different sides play differently. look at sides that play more possession football. also aplies to new coaches
• Player positions- this is important. you want to pick up someone who is going to play somewhere where the ball comes frequntly

these are all good ideas for choosing a player, but there is one reason that is harder to predict

• a players development, and predicting there breakout seasons

my research, will hopefully help you to find out, how a player is going, and roughly when they will peak, and begin to go down from there peak

i have used the averages of several players from each club

my theory is that before a player. has his "breakout" season, he will usually average around 60-70, and in his breakout season, it will rise to 80-100. a strong example of this is carazzo. in 2006 he averaged 76, but in 2007, he broke out and averaged 100. wether this was due to one of the other factors i posted above (retirements etc..) or wether it was his breakout season, he did peak, and that pattern follows for many other players.

also i have found that there is a pattern to one players sucess. he starts averaging low, and like every other player, with expereince, he averages more, untill he reaches his peak. once he is at his peak he will gradually average less, and less. an example of this is tredrea, who is past his peak. he had averaged seasons of 85, 93, 93, 95, but that was his peak, and now he has had seasons of 76, and 59.


anyway enough with the talking, here is the research, by club

the bold indicates there breakout year,
the underline indicates the current peak/highest year

ADELAIDE
Stars who follow the pattern
Thompson- seasons of 49, 73 , 84, 88,99 - this may be his peak.
Edwards - seasons of 77, 78, 81, 79, 96,98 - dont see him peaking further
Mcleod- seasons of 75, 71, 95, 91, 76, 81, 67 - he has already peaked
Goodwin- seasons of 67, 73, 87, 97, 87 - has already peaked aswell
Knights- seasons of 20, 57, 87 - should continue to peak. increase was due to position change

Players who could breakout
Van berlo - season of 57, and now 75 - could breakout, if given time
Reily- seasons of 55, 76 , 75 - could also breakout this year
shirly- seaons of 58, 62, 68 - is slowly on the rise, wait a few years



Brisbane
Stars who follow the pattern
Lappin- seasons of 76, 74, 73, 95, 98, 100, 100, 88, 99 - may be past his peak
Brown- seasons of 49, 69, 88, 86, 110, 93- still able to reach peak again
Power- seasons of 59, 75, 86, 88, 89, 99, 91 - same as brown
Drummond- seasons of 60, 69, 86- will defintly peak higher
Adcock- seasons of 54. 80, 88- hasnt peaked yet

Players who could breakout
Rischitelli- seasons of 69, 71 - could have a breakout, if used well
Stiller- seasons of 84, 82 - should rise again this year
Brennan- season of 42, 62. 73- could breakout consistantly


Carlton
Stars who follow the pattern
Carazzo- seasons of 63, 78, 100 - will be intresting to see if he can beat his current peak
Scotland- seasons of 52, 70, 76, 104, 99- can still have his peak, imo
Judd- seasons of 64, 75, 84, 84, 100, 85- will work his way up to his peak
Stevens- seasons of 88, 78, 88, 81, 78, 88, 78 - is very unreliable in guessing his peak
Fevola- seasons of 49, 45, 71, 70, 85, 71- same as stevens. could do more

Players who could breakout
Murphy- seasons of 75, 74, 86- should continue to peak
Walker- seasons of 42,70, 79- similar to what carazzo did last year, watch for him
Waite- seasons of 41, 68, 72, 70- peak depends on his position




Collingwood
Stars who follow the pattern
Swan- seasons of 52, 65, 101, 101 - may still peak, or lower by a tiny margin
Lockyer- seasons of 70, 75, 78, 102- broke out last season
Shaw- seasons of 68, 89, 84- has not peaked yet
Fraser- seasons of 68, 81, 83, 95, 80 - will hover around peak for a while
Buckely- seasons of 79, 95, 97, 110, 101 etcc.... - just an example of the pattern

Players who could breakout
Cloke- seasons of 47, 56, 78 - could well dominate next year
Pendlebury- seasons of 62, 81 - has imporved, and may breakout
Thomas- seasons of 65, 71 - could also breakout and get 90's this year




Essendon
Stars who follow the pattern
Stanton - seasons of 47, 81, 88, 92 - has already broken out, and is on the rise
Lucas- seasons of 72, 77, 78, 97, 88- if played in position, could still peak higher
McPhee- seasons of 45, 57, 76, 87, 78, 89 - pattern shows he will still peak.
Fletcher- seasons of 46, 54, 58, 67, 84 - even though he had a breakout last year, it was to late in his career
Lloyd- seasons of 75, 86, 69, 94, 84 - throughout his career, he has peaked, and gone down, then up again

Players who could breakout
Monfries- season of 44, 66, 66 - will probly have another small year, before breaking out
Watson- seasons of 49, 41, 86, 84- still has a bit more to peak, before falling
Winderlich- seasons of 30, 40, 52, 82 - could well rise higher around 90, if used well



Fremantle
Stars who follow the pattern
Pavlich - seasons of 68, 79, 88, 88, 91, 102- probly peaked last season, but should stay close
Bell- seasons of 51, 67, 71, 100, 87, 99, etc.. - has gone down from peak, but is doing it slowly, and still getting 90's
Haselby- seasons of 68. 83, 93, 92, 80, 74, 83- is on the downfall from his peak
Carr- seasons of 63, 83, 75, 73, 85, 88, - is on the rise, and could peak further
Headland- seasosn of 42. 42. 93, 72, 75, 73- has already peaked whilst at brisbane, and is on the down

Players who could breakout
Sandilands- seasons of 57, 65, 74 ,74 - should rise, and break out soon
Hayden- seasons of 57, 45, 49, 67 - could take a few years, but should breakout soon
Crowley- seasons of 54, 67, 68 - same as hayden


Geelong
Stars who follow the pattern
Bartel- seasons of 49, 49, 92, 82, 98, 114 - i doubt he will peak higher, but you never know with this freak
Chapman- seasons of 69, 69 ,71, 77, 101,102- slightly peaked last year, and may just stay close again
Milburn- seasons of 54, 56, 76, 84, 85, 84- will be around his peak this year, and could keep on going
Ablett jnr- seasons of 68, 68, 76,77, 98 - recently peaked, and should continue
Corey - seasons of 67, 73, 75, 95, 89, 104- same as ablett

Players who could breakout
Hawkins- season of 45 - will take a while for him to break out, and peak, but he started well
Enright- seasons of 71, 45, 73, 90, 86 - may have already peaked
Kelly- seasons of 71, 76, 64, 76 - may breakout if he is given a better role



Hawthorn
Stars who follow the pattern
Hodge- seasons of 62, 58, 73, 100, 89, 95- isnt done with his peak yet
Lewis- seasons of 60, 74, 94- is yet to fully peak and develop
Mitchel- seasons of 49, 69, 66, 87, 95, 94- is hovering around his peak, and will continue to do so
Crawford- seasons of 63, 83, 84, 94, 89, 84- always going up and down from his current peak
Young- seasons of 44, 61, 85- is still set to rise

Players who could breakout
Sewell- seasons of 41, 45, 64, 81 - still has room to improve and peak
Franklin- seasons of 51, 57, 79 - with consistancy will come higher scores
Guerra- seasons of 39, 45, 53, 71, 76 - similar to birchall, will increase slowly




Kangaroos
Stars who follow the pattern
Harvey- seasons of 35, 38, 62, 89, 86......92, 95- is improving with time
Simpson- seasons of 44, 49, 53, 82,...86, 93 - seems to be around his peak consistantly
Sinclair- seasons of 49, 52, 73, 84, 87, 88- no where near his peak yet
McIntosh- seasons of 43, 51, 80- defintly not at his peak yet
Grant- season of 57, 66, 95, 69, 89 - all over the place in consistancy

Players who could breakout
Wells- seasons of 68,68 71, 75 - it is only a matter of time before he breaks out, and when he does, it will be huge (100+)
Petrie - seasons of 66, 55, 63, 76, 75 - same as wells, to a lesser extent
Jones- seasons of 62, 73, 82, 73 - just waiting to break out, he is



Melbourne
Stars who follow the pattern
Bruce - seasons of 66, 74, 86, 101, 92 - injury may stop him from reaching his peak
Mcdonald - seasons of 62, 77, 84, 98 - could well have his best ahead
White- seasons of 55, 71, 78, 88, 91 - not dropping dramaticly
Green- seasons of 41, 54, 69, 81, 82, 89 - hovering around his current peak
Wheatley- seasons of 65, 56, 57, 81 - best is still ahead


Players who could breakout
Mcelan- seasons of 41, 62, 92, 78 - without injury, will probly peak higher
Davey- seasons of 60, 74, 71 - he still may break out eventully
Bate- seasons of 75, 72 - he has started well, and should rise quite high




Port Adelaide
Stars who follow the pattern
K.cornes- seasons of 50, 61, 79, 94, 105, 107 - still on the rise
C.cornes- seasons of 61, 74, 89, 95, 90, 101 - also still on the rise
Tredrea- seasons of 54, 69, 87, 93, 95, 71, 55 - is on the way down from his peak
Lade- seasons of 63, 71, 75, 98, 76 - could rise back up, if he does well
S.Burgoyne- seasons of 60, 62, 70, 92, 80 - shoudnt be done with yet

Players who could breakout
salopek- seasons of 46, 29, 74, 80 - i have no doubt he will break out, and have a very good peak, similar to the cornes
Pearce- seasons of 52, 75, 78 - looks set to explode soon
Westhoff- season of 65, - could be a future gun in the future, wait a while




Richmond
Stars who follow the pattern
Bowden- seasons of 74, 69, 69, 93, 94, 97,..95 - he hasnt peaked yet, which is scary
Richardson- seasons of, 65, 67, 77, 93, 77, 90 - is inconsistant with his peak
simmonds- seasons of 58, 67, 76, 94 - without injury, he should peak further
brown - seasons of 100, 60, 80 - same as simmonds
Petifer- seasons of 33, 49, 66, 85, 81 - may have already had his peak

Players who could breakout
Newman- seasons of 66, 58, 76 - same as deledio
Deledio - seasons of 61, 77, 76 - he is around that 70 mark, which means he may breakout any time now
Foley- seasons of 39, 60, 81 - had his breakout year last year, and should continue to rise rapidly






St Kilda
Stars who follow the pattern
Riewoldt- seasons of 42, 78, 82, 99, 88, 96, 99 - may just be able to peak higher, before lowering
Goddard- seasons of 56, 59, 65, 97, 80 - will continue to peak, without injury
Fisher- season of 40, 50, 80, 85- still has much more time to peak further
Koschitze - seasons of 33, 59, 63, 93, 73- probly already hit peak
Dal Santo- seasons of 45, 88,77, 89, 94- is hovering around his peak


Players who could breakout
Gram- seasons of 29, 28, 78, 73 - waiting to breakout
Fiora- seasons of 41, 62, 51, 68 - in a few years, may average 90
Gilbert- seasons of 21, 69 - on his way, like fiora



Sydney
Stars who follow the pattern
Hall- seasons of 67, 63, 73, 74, 87, 91- without injury, he may peak slightly
Kirk- seasons of 56, 65, 78, 84, 83, 90 - should peak around 95, before lowering
O'keefe- seasons of 72, 90, 83 - is not done with average wise
Malceski -seasons of 24, 58, 88 - should continue to rise more
Goodes- seasons of 65, 70, 70, 89, 81, 96 - should peak slightly, before dropping slightly

Players who could breakout
Kenelly- seasons of 57, 55, 61, 65 - shouldnt be far away from his peak
Mattner- seasosn of 66, 63, 58 - could also be on the rise. watch this space
C.Bolton- seasons of 58, 63, 68 - might just break out, if used well





West Coast
Stars who follow the pattern
Cox- seasons of 40, 58, 63, 77, 95, 98, 100 - there is only one way, and that is up.
Priddis- seasons of 68, 89 - should continue to peak if played right
Kerr- seasons of 75, 79, 75, 81, 92 - without injury, could peak dramaticly
Rosa- seasons of 41, 72, 87 - has his breakout last year, and should continue to peak
Embley- seaons of 26, 49, 52 80, 81, 93, 82, 80 - seems to be on the downward slump, after getting 90

Players who could breakout
Mcnamara- season of 41, big wraps on this young kid, look for him in the future
Hurn- seasons of 40, 52 - slowly getting there. with time in midfeild that could be 70
Hunter- seasons of 59, 63, 74 - just increasing slightly, all the signs for a breakout season
Ryan davis - because he is good





Western Bulldogs
Stars who follow the pattern
Johnson- 51, 58, 63, 77, 88, 90, 99.....100 - scores seem to keep rising. age may slow him down
Cross- seasons of 31, 53, 94, 101, 92 - can defintly peak higher before lowering
West- seasons of 66, 75, 79, 55, 82, 81, 96, 97, 98 - probly hit his peak at 98, but will be player who dosnt drop dramitcly
Boyd- seasons of 28, 56, 54, 82, 90 - figures show he is on the rise, and quickly
Akermanis- seasons of 60, 61, 71, 86. 93, 80, 90, 89, 85, 72- defintly on his downward run from his original peak

Players who could breakout
Griffen- seasons of 53, 66, 55 - scores should improve, and he might breakout soon
Hahn- seasons of 60, 54, 57 - same as griffen
Williams- season of 48 - in the future, could do well. currently on the slow rise.
bare in mind that where a player plays can affect his peak, and his development, as he may not peak as much if he is in a position where the ball dosnt come as much.



thus concludes my research.

[Colin D'Cops]

Good job Happy Eagle...

[Refried Noodle]

That's alot of effort right there.

It's definately one of the first things you notice when looking at players' history in terms of dream team scoring, but I'd never gone to that level of depth.

Then again I am guilty of plotting some simple linear regressions and logarithmic regressions based off this 'rising to a peak' theory in order to predict a player's rise for the next season.

[Dime]

I'm not trying to knock you because you've obviously gone to a lot of effort, so well done.
It is some interesting stuff - but at the end of the day it's still 90% guesswork.

Some nice theories and I agree with quite a lot of the predictions you're making. But they're still predictions

[Virgil]

To be perfectly honest I think your theory - that a star DT player develops over a few years, rather than being a gun from the off set - is a bit of a no brainer. I think you probably spent a good two or three hours spelling out the bleatingly obvious. Your thread's title could also do with a couple more exclamation marks.

I like your dedication though .

[Levi]

Good work.

Maybe put up players who follow the "pattern" but fail to follow on. We'd be able to see the "story" that goes with the statistics.

Also, if you have the prospectus, average time on ground in brackets might be useful beside the players dt average.

[LukeHodge15]

Originally Posted by The Silencer

I'm not trying to knock you because you've obviously gone to a lot of effort, so well done.
It is some interesting stuff - but at the end of the day it's still 90% guesswork.

Some nice theories and I agree with quite a lot of the predictions you're making. But they're still predictions

Guesswork...........Pfft.

U call it guesswork, people that know what they are talking about call it skill. Its that simple.

[Dime]

Originally Posted by LukeHodge15

Guesswork...........Pfft.

U call it guesswork, people that know what they are talking about call it skill. Its that simple.

I have a lot of respect for how high you've proved you can finish on a regular basis - but no one can claim that it's all skill. Obviously 90% is a bit of an overstatement, but it's all about taking educated guesses.

And that's what I'm saying - is that all of the stats provided don't provide anything concrete. Most of them even begin with 'could breakout...'
So finding these breakout IS guesswork. Educated guesses, but still guesswork.

Players breakout due to things like different roles, more gametime etc. It's about tracking these factors and looking at numbers like this isn't going to uncover any amazing burgeoning superstars all by itself.

[Houli2Gumbleton]

Nice Work Happy Eagle

Which one of the players that r about to reach their peak r u gonna put in ur dt?

[Schmick]

Iv'e always followed the same criteria when picking players, Great Work though mate

[warnie]

bloody awesome man.. great stuff!!

[nighthawk]

Happy Eagle, you're a good man. To have done this much work and be willing to share it so freely with others is very noble. Well done mate.

[Hirdy_5]

Great Work Mate . . Very Interesting