Sorry. We will finish in the bottom 4 again this year

Sound · Feb 18, 2008

I love Carlton more than anyone. I’m a member and have been for a long time. But I’m a realist and most of the posts here seem too optimistic.

First off the bat, I don’t usually post on big footy or any other internet forum. But I do have a read now and again.
Anyway, here are my two cents (prediction for this season and the future).

I think we will improve this season, but only a little.
We will finish in the bottom four again this year, for about 5 – 8 wins.
My prediction - 14th
There is still a very high possibility that we will finish last again.

In saying this, things happen during the season, average players become better players over the off-season. Other clubs players get injuries. We may win our close games.
However, with us playing at our absolute best and all the luck going our way, I can not see us finishing higher than 11th or winning 10 games.

Why you my ask?

We’ll firstly you just have to look at the other teams in the competition. Who are we honestly going to finish higher than?
On paper (which of course does not mean everything), I can only see us finishing above Richmond and Melbourne. With Essendon, the Bulldogs and Brisbane just on top of us.

Below is an analysis of our list for 2008. Outlining the reasons why we will most likely finish in the bottom four again this season.

Defence

Our defence is about at the standard of a good VFL team.
Waite will play CHB, and I think he will do a good job.
Thornton has the making of a top quality HBF and can play on a third tall. But he is no Full Back
Apart from these two, what other quality DEFENDERS do we have? When I say defenders, I mean actual defensive, tough stoppers. Not a midfielder running off half back line ala Ryan Houlihan.
Look at Geelong – The Benchmark.
Harley, Scarlett, Egan – top quality tall defenders
Enright, Mackie, Wojcinski – excellent medium defenders
Hunt – gun small defender, can take fall forwards
Also, we have no depth in our backline. What happens if Waite goes down in round 5?
We have conceded an average of 132, 110 and 121 points per game respectively in the past three seasons and we have recruited no defenders that I can see stepping up this year.
Don’t give me this Paul Bower, Mark Austin and Joe Anderson will magically step up this year become premier AFL Defenders. You people live in………..Dream World

Make no mistake about it, we are going to cop a hiding down back once again this year.

Forward Line

We still have a well below average forward line.
What scares me is that we only have three natural forwards and absolutely nobody in the bullants who could possibly come in and have an impact in the seniors.
Fevola is an absolute superstar. The best full forward in the AFL when fit.
Fisher is a very good third tall / floating forward
Betts is a handy goal sneak.
Besides these three who do we have to kick goals?
The midfielders Walker, Judd, Stevens will come down and kick a few, but to be a good team you need some quality players in your forward 50 who are natural goal kickers to kick goals!
We don’t have a CHF……….this may be a problem.

Where are our medium forwards? A Johnson, a Ebert, a Didak….nobody.
Just like our backline our forward line has no depth.
As of today Fisher has been sidelined for 8 weeks. Which tall forwards are we going to target when going forward in the first few games. Fevola and ummmmm?……Fevola?
Without Fisher we only will have Fevola as a tall forward to go to and that has worked real well over the past 6 seasons………………….hasn’t it?
Hartlett, Edwards and Kruezer are young. Don’t count on them kicking 30 - 50 goals this season.

Rucks
Without doubt, we have the worst rock stocks in the league.
Ackland is hopeless, don’t count on him being any better than an average player this season.
Cloke is another mediocre player
Hampson is looking promising, Kreuzer may be a gun and Aisake is developing nicely.
But don’t expect an 19 year old (Hampson), a first year player (Kreuzer) and a kid who has played footy for 3 years (Aisake) to win us games in the ruck.
The ruck is, quite possibly, the most important position on the ground and sadly we have nobody.

Midfield

Our midfield is very good, but not great.
Judd, Stevens, Scotland, Carrazzo are superstars. Simpson, Walker, Hadley can play.
We actually have depth in our midfield. Ie Bentick, Russell, Pfeiffer ect.
Don’t except much from Murphy and Gibbs as their only kids!
We will win our games through our midfield this year and we may pull an upset or two.

The Future.

Premiership teams have solid backlines, multiple ruckman and top quality key position players.
We are so far from this it’s not funny.
We will improve in the next few seasons. Possibly make the eight in two or three years time.
But unfortunately, we are no closer to winning a flag than Richmond, Essendon, St Kilda or any other team in the AFL.
Having a young list means nothing unless you have talented young players.
We do have some exciting talented young players, but none more than the other clubs I mentioned.

Believe me I hope you guys are right, I hope ratten brings out the best of our players and executes a successful game plan that wins us plenty of games this season.
I pray that our youngsters develop into champions.
I dream that one day in the not to distant future we will be back at the top, where Carlton belong.
But, unfortunately I can’t see this happening at the present.

Cheers,

DonMania#5 · Feb 18, 2008

I agree, finally a unbias Carlton supporter :thumbsu:

Beloved · Feb 18, 2008

After such a long post and all these little points being put out, I don't think I can disagree with you. However...

I beleive that this year the bottom four wont necissarily do that bad this year, around the 6-7 win mark. It's a start, anything better than 15th I will be happy to take.

Blueinblood · Feb 18, 2008

ummmmm..... i think you should stick to not posting.......
Waite will be a chb this year ...as mentioned a gagillion times
Fisher is out for 3 weeks of the main season at the most.
Our rucks tovks are far from the worst in the league. Hampson and cloke better than adelaides and similar to collingwoods......you forget about Jamison.
As for forwards fev will be good again and hartlett and edwards look okay...... i expect our midfiled to kick almost all our goals this year....i mean we scored the 5th highest amoumt of points.... i dont expect top 8 but i dont excpect bottom 4 either

walshy93 · Feb 18, 2008

NIce post, i can see your point there. And they do make sense. My beief is that we will finish 9-12 this season, and we will improve immensely in the Backline sector, with Waite, and the improving youngsters down there.

I think that it is only or bckline that let us down last season, all the 100 plus concedes, our midfield was working well, and our forwardline had some flair, so with a strengthened backline, and our improved midfield, this will be the year we start to flex our muscles.

walshy93 · Feb 18, 2008

Where are our medium forwards?

As of today Fisher has been sidelined for 8 weeks. Which tall forwards are we going to target when going forward in the first few games. Fevola and ummmmm?……Fevola?

Without Fisher we only will have Fevola as a tall forward to go to and that has worked real well over the past 6 seasons………………….hasn’t it?

Hartlett, Edwards and Kruezer are young. Don’t count on them kicking 30 - 50 goals this season.[\quote]

1.) Houlihan can sneak down there, Russell, and our younger mids resting.

2.) Hartlett is a tall forward whom we can utelise, and the Kreuz sneaking down will provide a target or a decoy.

3.) If Hartlett, Edwards and Kreuzer kick 30-50 combined, I would be rapped.

Brighton_Diggins · Feb 18, 2008

a Great realistic projection given the information
you're armed with at this point.
Nostradamus like predictions
make for great reading but at the end of the day it's just that...
A prediction.

I always use the round ten rule.
That's when we'll all look back and either laugh at such stupidity
or praise incredible insight.

The Real Deal · Feb 18, 2008

I don't agree with all you say. However the ruck is a problem given what we saw on the weekend. Brogan was pretty dominant in the first half and it was only when he was taken off that we started to get the upper hand in the third quarter. Imagine if he and Lade rucked all day- we wouldn't have won the game. Hampson will be good but is too young- Ackland may need to play a fair few games this year.

Backline is better than you think but still inexperienced. Waite, Jamison, O'Hailpin, Thorton, Grigg are reasonable and hopefully the midfield will be more competitive and this will take some pressure off the backline.

Midfield has vastly improved- remember there was no Judd or Stevens last year and Murphy is a year older and we've got a bit of depth there.

I'm hoping we get out of the bottom-three dud team mould and at least crack 8 or so wins.

jj1978 · Feb 18, 2008

I'm sorry I'm a realist myself and I just don't see things that bleakly.

I think some of us supporters have been so scarred by the past 6 years that they're afraid of putting their hopes on us improving.

Seriously are team is not that bad at all, we have a young list that is enthusiastic and eager to improve and to show the world a point. I think the team really did hate Pagan that much that he just couldn't drive them to get the best out of themselves.

Do not underestimate the amount of extra spending Pratt has brought in to help this group. Collingwood's list is shyte but the amount of extra $$ spent on physio, psychologists, and other great things money can buy has helped their mediumish list get to a kick away from the GF last year, a 2 GF in 2002-2003.

In the past 6 years the top 22 have been that, the top 22... no competition from other players really giving the top 22 incentive to work harder to keep their spot and their pay cheque. This year we have some depth.... and we will see players now killing themselves for this jumper again.

Beloved · Feb 18, 2008

Blueinblood said:
ummmmm..... i think you should stick to not posting.......

Click to expand...

Why? It's a very constrictive post.

Waite will be a chb this year ...as mentioned a gagillion times

Click to expand...

Our rucks tovks are far from the worst in the league. Hampson and cloke better than adelaides and similar to collingwoods......you forget about Jamison.

Click to expand...

I must disagree, our Ruck's are closest to the worst in the league. As for Jamison, I don't beleive he is a ruckman.

As for forwards fev will be good again and hartlett and edwards look okay......

Click to expand...

Based on what? There is never any guarantee any player will have a great season.

i expect our midfiled to kick almost all our goals this year....i mean we scored the 5th highest amoumt of points....

Click to expand...

I don't see how these two things link together.

thylacine60 · Feb 18, 2008

I love Carlton more than anyone. I’m a member and have been for a long time. But I’m a realist and most of the posts here seem too optimistic.

First off the bat, I don’t usually post on big footy or any other internet forum. But I do have a read now and again.
Anyway, here are my two cents (prediction for this season and the future).

I think we will improve this season, but only a little.
We will finish in the bottom four again this year, for about 5 – 8 wins.

You got off to a bad start.

Dramoth · Feb 18, 2008

I think that you have raised a couple of decent points.

However, remember that we are really aiming at Rnd 1 of the premiership season and to that extent, a lot of our players are still going to be slightly underdone in terms of fitness and match training.

I also think that next weekend, we will see a much improved team out there after the run out against port and getting used to each other and Ratts game plan.

Would you prefer it if we still had Denis the menace in charge and we creamed the preseason and won the first couple of games in the regular season only to fall in a heap by midseason and look doomed to a bottom 4 if not a bottom 2 finish.

I would prefer to be a little sketchy at the start of the NAB cup and got better over the course of the comp, and come out in Rnd 1 polished and ready to rock and roll and put a serious hurt on Bitchmond.

Athomas · Feb 18, 2008

A few decent points, including the defence and ruck points.

Don't say we can't rely on Murphy and Gibbs, as Murphy is a 3rd year player and will star this year, and Gibbs has beefed up. They will make a difference.

We won't be bottom 4 imo. Bottom 8 is much more realistic.

SA Blueblood · Feb 18, 2008

Maybe i'm in the wrong place but i am sick of debating where we will finish this year or next year, WHO FRIGGING KNOWS WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN, all i know is we are on the way back, whether that takes 1 year, 2 years who knows how quickly it's going to happen, but it is going to happen. IMO not even the coach knows how quickly it will happen, as long as we improve consistently as a group i will be happy. 5 wins, 8 wins, 10 wins, 12 wins, who really has any idea, very few i reckon if any. So lets all stop this bullsh!t guessing game until after round 6 when we've played half a dozen serious games and then make a better informed judgement.

mediumsizered · Feb 18, 2008

Sound said:
I

Defence

Our defence is about at the standard of a good VFL team.
Waite will play CHB, and I think he will do a good job.
Thornton has the making of a top quality HBF and can play on a third tall. But he is no Full Back
Apart from these two, what other quality DEFENDERS do we have? When I say defenders, I mean actual defensive, tough stoppers. Not a midfielder running off half back line ala Ryan Houlihan.
Look at Geelong – The Benchmark.
Harley, Scarlett, Egan – top quality tall defenders
Enright, Mackie, Wojcinski – excellent medium defenders
Hunt – gun small defender, can take fall forwardsAlso, we have no depth in our backline. What happens if Waite goes down in round 5?
We have conceded an average of 132, 110 and 121 points per game respectively in the past three seasons and we have recruited no defenders that I can see stepping up this year.
Don’t give me this Paul Bower, Mark Austin and Joe Anderson will magically step up this year become premier AFL Defenders. You people live in………..Dream World
Make no mistake about it, we are going to cop a hiding down back once again this year.

Yours is a well thought out & well argued post, but I think your comments about Geelong's defence highlight how quickly players can improve/develop.

Mackie has played 61 AFL games, including 24 during the 2007 season. In other words he had played 37 games in the previous 3 seasons & his spot on the Geelong list prior to the 2007 season was looking incredibly shaky.
2 years ago there was a massive injury cloud hovering over Wojcinski, after he had suffered a knee injury. He returned to the fray for 15 games in 2006, but was steady at best.
3 seasons ago, Matthew Egan was just starting out on his AFL career. No-one, except the Geelong faithful, knew who he was. Yet in 2007 he was recognised as one of the competition's best defenders. Quite a rapid rise to fame in anyone's language.
Until 2007, Harley had a major credibility issue. We all knew he could be very good, but he was one of the Geelong players, along with Enright (& others), who let the Cats down when the pressure was on.

On paper our defence looks thin of talent, but it can be turned around in a hurry. It is amazing what a bit of confidence & self belief can do. Certainly Andrew Mackie is a good example of a player who had failed to deliver for 3 seasons & then suddenly turned it around. I'm not suggesting our defence will emulate Geelong's but I am suggesting that players can improve very quickly given the right circumstances & that applies to all positions on the ground, not just the defence.

thylacine60 · Feb 18, 2008

SA Blueblood said:
Maybe i'm in the wrong place but i am sick of debating where we will finish this year or next year, WHO FRIGGING KNOWS WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN, all i know is we are on the way back, whether that takes 1 year, 2 years who knows how quickly it's going to happen, but it is going to happen. IMO not even the coach knows how quickly it will happen, as long as we improve consistently as a group i will be happy. 5 wins, 8 wins, 10 wins, 12 wins, who really has any idea, very few i reckon if any. So lets all stop this bullsh!t guessing game until after round 6 when we've played half a dozen serious games and then make a better informed judgement.

So wadda we talk about for two and a half months?

Beloved · Feb 18, 2008

thylacine60 said:
So wadda we talk about for two and a half months?

I have a sheep... Any takers?

BlueWorld · Feb 18, 2008

Sound said:
Defence

Our defence is about at the standard of a good VFL team.
Waite will play CHB, and I think he will do a good job.
Thornton has the making of a top quality HBF and can play on a third tall. But he is no Full Back
Apart from these two, what other quality DEFENDERS do we have? When I say defenders, I mean actual defensive, tough stoppers. Not a midfielder running off half back line ala Ryan Houlihan.
Look at Geelong – The Benchmark.
Harley, Scarlett, Egan – top quality tall defenders
Enright, Mackie, Wojcinski – excellent medium defenders
Hunt – gun small defender, can take fall forwards
Also, we have no depth in our backline. What happens if Waite goes down in round 5?
We have conceded an average of 132, 110 and 121 points per game respectively in the past three seasons and we have recruited no defenders that I can see stepping up this year.
Don’t give me this Paul Bower, Mark Austin and Joe Anderson will magically step up this year become premier AFL Defenders. You people live in………..Dream World
Make no mistake about it, we are going to cop a hiding down back once again this year.

All sides have midfielders running off half back- Mcleod, Heath Shaw etc. and what are Enright, Mackie, Wojcinski? It's how you generate run out of defense. You want 6 players who just stand there and mind their men? Go back to the 60's. Hunt a gun? Was lucky to get a game. I won't bother with the rest. :thumbsd:

kouta6 · Feb 18, 2008

i think youre right but you can never tell footy is a strange game i mean who at the end of 2006 would predict that carrazzo was going to have the year he did? things like this happen all the time so you never know. i personally want to smash the tigers (oth times) beat the pies and the bombers and the rest is all a bonus! go blues

SA Blueblood · Feb 18, 2008

thylacine60 said:
So wadda we talk about for two and a half months?

Something other than this bullsh!t every second day, we are all going around in circles saying the same thing over and over, no-ones right or wrong yet, I was saying lets wait for some form or lack of to backup our comments, instead of doing our heads in over crap that hasn't happened yet, I don't mind making or reading a prediction but its getting too repetitive, every thread turns into the same sh!t. Or maybe i'm just grumpy don't know, is anyone else sick of it or is it just me?

Stig O'Hara · Feb 18, 2008

Brighton_Diggins said:
I always use the round ten rule.
That's when we'll all look back and either laugh at such stupidity
or praise incredible insight.

About the same with me.

Personally I think we will be around mid field til halfway,
then drop from the pack, while still being competitive.

But should expect a good foundation in place for the next few years.

I hope!

Donstuie · Feb 18, 2008

DonMania#5 said:
I agree, finally a unbias Carlton supporter

You must not know many then

SA Blue · Feb 18, 2008

IMO a far too negative assesment of our list and chances for the year.

I don't think your higher prediction of 8 wins is too far from reality, but your actual assement makes us sound as the worst team in the league.

Defense
Yes, I think this is our worse area, but this year should see signifiant improvement on previous years. Addition of players such as Hadley, Jamison and Armfeld, coupled with the improvement of youngsters and most importantly a vastly improved midfield and the additional pressure they provide will see improvment.

I actually believe a half back line of Walker Waite Scotland as being very good.

Rucks
Worst in league? See Tigers or Crows. Again, still an area of concern, but vastly improving with the likes of Hampson and the return of Cloke. Kreuzer will take time.

Forwards
We were one the highest scoring teams last year, and we consistently scored over 100 points without Fev dominating, so I am not too concerned. There will be a reliance on Fev to be the focus, but I am confidant we can continue last years scoring power. The Power game is an example where we again scored 100 points, with Fev only scoring 2 goals.

Midfield
Addition of Judd and Stevens is a massive gain. Any side will improve with the addition of 2 A grade on ballers. We now have an extremely good front line midfield, and the have increased the number of players to rotate through, with the addition of Hadley and Pfeiffer. Improvement in Murphy and Gibbs will be vital in how far we go.

Overall

I think we are capable of 8-10 wins, but alot will depend on injuries. We have limited depth and the loss of some of our front line players will hurt badly.

The start to the season will tell a lot as we have a good draw and a chance to have a favourable win / loss ratio heading into rd 7.

kouta6 · Feb 18, 2008

why lately have we been drafting so many small backs and mids lately we need some kpp why have we not been looking at them or trading for them. we have so many mids its not funny

bluesforever · Feb 18, 2008

I don't think we will be bottom 4 this year, there is a nucleus there for a good side, yes we are young but I do think Jamieson, Setanta, Thornton, Bower and sometimes maybe a Cloke or Hampson can do a good job down back, and then chuck in Waite... our backline has taken a hammering over the past couple of seasons because of the simple reason that Pagan played a game plan that was designed for the 90's, we were ALWAYS caught out 1 on 1, now with Ratten I don't think that will happen near as much as it has in the past. Our midfield will be able to hold off many more attacks because we should have more of the footy than in the past, forward line has alot of potency as we know, I think that won't be a problem.

Carlton SHOULD not finish bottom 4, I will tip that we will finish between 9-12.

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Sorry. We will finish in the bottom 4 again this year

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