A reason to not pick Nick Stevens

[JedMack]

After Supercoach opened he was one of the first players I picked, for obvious reasons

a) well below market value
b) proven performer
c) capable of holding a starting midfield spot in my team

Then I remembered my performance last season and the case with Simon Goodwin.

I picked Goodwin as one of my gun mids along with Goodes, Judd and Black, and given the Crows were at home to my beloved Dons and their less than A grade midfield, I made him my captain for round 1.

Well my thinking was fine but then tragedy, he gets injured before most spectators have made it to their seats, and his 6 pts doubled gets 12.

But the real damage was not having a guaranteed go to player to make the trade with, primarily to protect the high dollar value that would be wiped away due to such a low score.

It is fine to rely on the bench to cover for an injury, but that doesn't protect the players price.

So after much deliberation I have decided to go midfield crazy and have spent 3.5 mill on my starting six mids.

If something like last year happens, or a player in my starting six performs well below par and looks set to drop 100k or so, I trade down for Stevens and pocket the extra cash.

One of the hardest things to do is get cash early on - the cash cows haven't mooed, and the big guns haven't misfired.

Plus Stevens returning from a long break might only average 80 for the first 4-5 weeks which would still put him at about 420k after 5 weeks.

If Stevens was at his usual price he wouldn't be in my starting 6, so why do I feel automatically compelled to select him.

I think it is because of the "everyone loves a bargain mentality" that 90% of teams will have him in - kind of like going to the bottle shop to get a slab of Carlton Draught only to see the Vic Bitter is on special and changing your mind.

I would be interested to hear how other SuperCoaches are preparing to use
Stevens.

For what it's worth I used to work in a prominent bottle shop and it was amazing to see the effect of beer sales when VB dropped 2$ a slab.

Punters instead of buying one slab would buy two or more(bootloads in some instances) - truly a demonstration of economic psychology at work.

[Walesy]

wasn't Simon Goodwin on the "12 step program" at the start of last year?

Stevens, for my money, is a proven performer at a low low price.

missing him would be a-kin to skipping on Lappin last year for the same reasons...

[PAFCsince1870]

it's a flawed theory, because for example you then have to sacrifice say a gun defender (eg Chad, Gilbee, Heath Shaw) for somone around Nick Stevens price in defence.

so then the question becomes who would I rather..

Nick Stevens, or someone like Mattner or Symes?

Stevens has the potential to be a mainstay in my side all year. I'm not sure any defender at the same price has the same potential.

[bloodsportz]

I cant believe I just wasted my time reading that tripe.

[anti.]

^ i just read the response's, saving me time and coming to the same conclusion as you.

[Walesy]

Nah, I'm gunna have another crack at this one.

If Stevens *only* averages 80, then 2 things happen...

1. you get 80 points a week.
2. you get an increase of 100k.

He's going to bring in 80's to net me 100k instead of the cheap guys who bring in 40's to net the same profit...

Sounds like a great Cash cow that doesn't have to sit on the bench...

[JedMack]

Originally Posted by Walesy

Nah, I'm gunna have another crack at this one.

If Stevens *only* averages 80, then 2 things happen...

1. you get 80 points a week.
2. you get an increase of 100k.

He's going to bring in 80's to net me 100k instead of the cheap guys who bring in 40's to net the same profit...

Sounds like a great Cash cow that doesn't have to sit on the bench...

Assume you have a Judd, Kane, Goodes in your starting mids - they have a quiet game rd 1, score 60 then an avg game rd 2 score 110. Their breakeven is about 160. If they have another quiet game say score 70 their 550+ opening price tag all of a sudden is 450.

That money is gone.

A lot of people say they want Stevens because he will get 80's and increase in value.
Why wouldn't you take a punt on a Houli,Thomas(PA) or Prismall?

If they get 80's their price will jump further than if Stevens gets 80's.

[JedMack]

Originally Posted by bloodsportz

I cant believe I just wasted my time reading that tripe.

Seeing as you are a newbie I'll go easy but you will spend a lot more time reading useless crap this year I can guarantee you.

The main point is that I will probably trade in Stevens at Rd 2 as a reverse trade, freeing up a lot of cash for future upgrades.

Prices stay fixed until Rd 3 plus I will at least have some idea of expected prices for rd 3.

But anyway, thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy competing with the other 100 000 entrants that all have the same team.

[bloodsportz]

Originally Posted by JedMack

Seeing as you are a newbie I'll go easy but you will spend a lot more time reading useless crap this year I can guarantee you.

The main point is that I will probably trade in Stevens at Rd 2 as a reverse trade, freeing up a lot of cash for future upgrades.

Prices stay fixed until Rd 3 plus I will at least have some idea of expected prices for rd 3.

But anyway, thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy competing with the other 100 000 entrants that all have the same team.

I have been on these boards for a very long time and I read little, there are few on these boards who have opinions worth considering. Thats fact unfortunately.

You can try your strategy, good luck. But its flawed. The competition will be won by someone who buys Nick Stevens and has them starting on the ground.

The difference between them and someone who fails is that they will hit the jackpot on someone like Prismall, Didak, Monfries ect. And of course, smart trading throughout the year and good alternation of captain choices based on weather and opposition.

[scottyjc]

Originally Posted by JedMack

But anyway, thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy competing with the other 100 000 entrants that all have the same team.

JedMack you have made from valid points recently, and I enjoy your viewpoint, but I think you missed the mark here.

Stevens will average fantastically for a player of that price, and will increase in value, not much more you can ask from a fantasy player

[Dime]

If you're worried about and injury to Stevens before his price has risen and thus not being able to replace him, then why don't you just go into the season with some extra money in the bank? I'd rather that than waste a trade like you're suggesting.

[crow87]

Originally Posted by JedMack

After Supercoach opened he was one of the first players I picked, for obvious reasons

a) well below market value
b) proven performer
c) capable of holding a starting midfield spot in my team

Then I remembered my performance last season and the case with Simon Goodwin.

I picked Goodwin as one of my gun mids along with Goodes, Judd and Black, and given the Crows were at home to my beloved Dons and their less than A grade midfield, I made him my captain for round 1.

Well my thinking was fine but then tragedy, he gets injured before most spectators have made it to their seats, and his 6 pts doubled gets 12.

But the real damage was not having a guaranteed go to player to make the trade with, primarily to protect the high dollar value that would be wiped away due to such a low score.

It is fine to rely on the bench to cover for an injury, but that doesn't protect the players price.

So after much deliberation I have decided to go midfield crazy and have spent 3.5 mill on my starting six mids.

If something like last year happens, or a player in my starting six performs well below par and looks set to drop 100k or so, I trade down for Stevens and pocket the extra cash.

One of the hardest things to do is get cash early on - the cash cows haven't mooed, and the big guns haven't misfired.

Plus Stevens returning from a long break might only average 80 for the first 4-5 weeks which would still put him at about 420k after 5 weeks.

If Stevens was at his usual price he wouldn't be in my starting 6, so why do I feel automatically compelled to select him.

I think it is because of the "everyone loves a bargain mentality" that 90% of teams will have him in - kind of like going to the bottle shop to get a slab of Carlton Draught only to see the Vic Bitter is on special and changing your mind.

I would be interested to hear how other SuperCoaches are preparing to use
Stevens.

For what it's worth I used to work in a prominent bottle shop and it was amazing to see the effect of beer sales when VB dropped 2$ a slab.

Punters instead of buying one slab would buy two or more(bootloads in some instances) - truly a demonstration of economic psychology at work.

Thanks JM, that gives me something to think about actually and you raise a good point. However I will probably still have Stevens in my team because the difference between Stevens price and another player of equal DT ability is greater than the difference of 2 bucks in a person's pocket.
I am worried that you imply Carlton Draught to be a quality beer though, sure its better than VB but thats like saying being deaf, blind, dumb and paraplegic is beter than being dead-you just choose to have either. Im assuming you're bottle-o sold provided more than just the 2 options here.

[JedMack]

As of today I am thinking of using Stevens,Gibbs and Houli as my 6,7 and 8th mids.

There are a lot of good cheap players in the midfield section that might not play round one.

There should be good opportunities to make healthy profits by trading in this area.

I am worried that if I pick a rookie and he doesn't play or score well, it might cost me a trade and the loss of potential increase in value.

Explaining, say I pick Palmer and his first 5 games he plays on/off the bench and maybe even misses a game - his price will not go up a lot.

With the Houli/Gibbs/Stevens trio I am pretty sure 2 of these three will increase in price quickly, and the trade out of one of them will be for a lot more.

It does mean I will start with a weaker forward line.

If I can get about 400k to play with from letting a mid go, minus the new player's cost I can pick a player as their replacement that I have had a chance to watch and know roughly how much they should increase after their 3rd week.

If things go well I might be able to do this a couple of times.

I also get to have a fwd line that rd 1 is full of holes.

Team starting structure

Bks 3 premiums 3 80avg 3rookies
Mids 3 premiums 2 90avg + Stevens/Gibbs/Houli
Rucks 4 from Simmonds down
Fwds Hall plus 4 on ball fwds under 400k and 4 rookies.

My overall thinking is to try and save trades by having a larger target up grade section and wear the lower forward/ruck line scores for the first few weeks.

But because of my starting midfield structure I have plenty of players to choose from to trade out, rather than relying on my ability to be able to predict rookies gametime/scoring level etc.

[Walesy]

awww... now I feel kinda bad... you were so full of adamant spunk!

ah well... just watch out with Houli. While he really has been tearing it up in the pre-season, the Dons have got the Monday night game, so you won't even know if he's on the extended bench...

But then, he has been tearing it up...

[JedMack]

Houli is all class - and I expect big things. He is easily in the best 18. At 144k get on board.