Top 7: Backs

We all try and squad the best of the best in each department.
Well, at least i do anyway.

I always want the cream of the crop as i hate nothing more than having those "iffy" players in my team such as B.Jones, B.Symes, M.Mattner, etc in my backline, where the decision of keeping them or trading them becomes a headache.

I have chosen to discuss the top backs instead of the other areas for the following reasons:
Midfield: Too hard to predict.
Rucks: Obvious. D.Cox and J.White or possibly a T.Simmonds or A.Sandilands.
Forwards: Obvious. Well, at least 5 or so of them are.

The loss of D.Swan, T.Lockyer, A.Carrazzo, L.Hodge, M.Pavlich, and co. have severely depleted the backline over the years.
New players always step up to premium status though, such as H.Shaw and quite possibly the relentless J.King this year but the backline is still way down on its usual output.

The point of this thread is to work as a team at forecasting who the best backs will be by the end of the year.

I want everyone who reads this to post what they personally believe the Top 7 backs will be this year come seasons end based on "averages", not "overall points".

It should be your own opinion and i would love to see a short description next to each name explaining why you believe he will be at the top end of the table come seasons end.

I will post my Top 7 once this gets up and running.

Cornes - because he is The Chad. He's had 4 x 100+ scores in 6 rounds. A finger may keep him out for a few weeks, but it won't affect his average while he's out! Will come back and score 100+ again with alarming regularity; should net you 90 ppg with a handful of 130+ games for good measure. I could say more, but you don't need to. It's The Chad. Will average 105.

H.Shaw - because he is in the zone. 4 x 100+ scores in 7 games. He's found his role, he loves it, has the engine to play it, backs himself and most importantly, Mick is willing to let him play it, regardless of Collingwood's form (this was a pointed dig at Wallace too, BTW). Up on disposals and marks so far this year. 4th year player adjusting well to the burden of the team being placed on his shoulders. Will average 100.

P.Burgoyne - because he has the support of his coach, and inconsistent as he is (the last season before 2007 he even got near averaging 90 was 2003), is capable of pulling out some monster scores. 12th season means the legs aren't what they used to be, but he's a senior player, a barometer of the team and they need him to fire. Should be his last season up the top of the backs (reckon age and injury will catch up). Will average 90.

Goddard - because you don't get to the pointy end of the DT backs without being consistently good, and Goddard is consistent. Playing solidly after coming back from a knee, and will only get better this season. You don't get 9 x 100+ scores in 2006 and lose your talent with your ligament. 6th season and is the obvious goto for the Saints. Will average 90.

Mackie - because he scores well when Geelong play well, and they're going to play well again this year. 5th year player, but only really cemented a spot in the 22 last year. Also has increased average tackles since 2006, which is good for an extra 8-12 ppg. Will average 85.

Birchall - because he has been impressive since debut in 2006, and played every game last year for the Hawks. 3rd year player who finds the ball and is up on all stats this year, coinciding with another good start for the Hawks. Think having played three years with a pretty stable lineup has helped a lot. Will average 85.

Drummond - because Matthews trusts him implicitly, is a beautiful kick and even though he is as injury prone as all hell (34 matches in 4 seasons), will average well WHEN he plays. Plenty of marks, plenty of kick ins, scores 100+ in close to half the games he played last year. Even with two ordinary games at the start of this year, will still score 100+ when he comes back in. Will average 80.

You know what sticks out for me in my selections - all these players, regardless of how long they've been playing in that position, have the confidence of the coach to take the ball and run with it. Don't have the TOG stats to back it up, but willing to wager they all spend a very high percentage of time on the ground.


King, Bowden and Johncock (all to average ~80) to round out the 10. King is an interesting one - I didn't include him because I think he's playing a chunk of Bowden's role, and Wallace is going to keep him there. 2nd year player is always a worry, but he started strongly last year, and has kept it going. Obviously has support of coach, which is half the battle to getting good TOG. Haven't seen much of him play, and my gut says he'll tail off, but a ripper start to season will keep him up there.

Bowden because he's already basically averaging that while supposedly being in wretched form, and Johncock because he is a good solid, dependable player.

Worth noting that although these are the players I think would average the best, they aren't necessarily the ones I'd say will be the best backs to have (eg Drummond, who is visited by the Injury Fairy at an incredible rate, and P.Burgoyne, who I just don't trust because of his up and down inconsistency).

There's a distinct difference which we have to be clear on here.

Firstly, there is who the top 7 backs will be at the end of the year by average

Secondly, there is who will average the most from Round 8 onwards.

The first is purely interest value unless you already have them in your team but the 2nd is the important one based on who you are going to trade in.

The top 7 backs by average currently are Heater, Chad, JakeK, Bock, Guerra, Mackie and MacDonald.

I believe the top 7 backs (by average) by years end will be Chad, Heater, Goddard, PBurger, King, Bock and Drummond.

I do, however, believe that Milburn will average more than say Bock for the rest of the year, it's just that he's already 100 points behind and has too much ground to make up in average per week terms to catch him. Drummond may average more than others but could miss 6 games along the way.

54Dogs said:

There's a distinct difference which we have to be clear on here.

Firstly, there is who the top 7 backs will be at the end of the year by average

Secondly, there is who will average the most from Round 8 onwards.

The first is purely interest value unless you already have them in your team but the 2nd is the important one based on who you are going to trade in.

The top 7 backs by average currently are Heater, Chad, JakeK, Bock, Guerra, Mackie and MacDonald.

I believe the top 7 backs (by average) by years end will be Chad, Heater, Goddard, PBurger, King, Bock and Drummond.

I do, however, believe that Milburn will average more than say Bock for the rest of the year, it's just that he's already 100 points behind and has too much ground to make up in average per week terms to catch him. Drummond may average more than others but could miss 6 games along the way.

Click to expand...

54Dogs, what was your reasoning for trading out Chad? Asides from the obvious... you rate him so high.

Why trade him and are you planning to get him back?

Here are my Top 7 backs in a predictive order:

C.Cornes
A given.
The Chad is arguably the first picked player in everyones team in the pre-season seeing as though the backs severely lack premium talent.
He is a Dream Team god who will comfortably finish at the top.

H.Shaw
Another given.
He is getting better by age and his scores are showing this.
H.Shaw resembles the true quarterback and if you have watched him play, you would know that he does a bloody good job at it too.
He is now reading the play as an experienced veteran and is looked for by his team-mates and will also comfortably finish at the top, just behind Senior Cornes.

J.Bowden
You either forgot about this guy or you change your opinions on players very, very quickly.
Before the year, nearly everyone on this board would have put J.Bowden in their Top 7 backs come seasons end.
With an average of 91.9 points in his past 8 seasons with his lowest season average being 87.7 in this time, this guy is a dead set gun.
He has also only missed 2 matches in his past 8 seasons.
Assuming he stays in the team, which should be a given from here on in, he will average over 85 this year with ease, which would comfortably put him in the Top 7 backs.
I am still predicting an average of 90 points from him.

J.King
It is hard to predict the future with this guy as we have not really seen him play enough and we do not know his exact role to know how his scores will fare as the season progresses.
However, with that being said, he looks to be the H.Shaw of Richmond with a little more grunt and a little less skill.
I suppose he does not get looked for in terms of linking up at Richmond as much as H.Shaw does at Collingwood but he is starting to get the respect he rightfully deserves.
His role, work rate and scoring ability tell me that he will also finish in the Top 7 but as i said, it is hard to say this with confidence as he is only in his second year and his role in the team can always change to a tight niggling tagger.
I am still predicting an average of around 90 points this year if he continues playing the role he is right now.

B.Goddard
He has a little bit of work to do in order to lift his average but i can only see him moving up from here on in as his fitness increases and as St.Kilda improve.
We have seen his best and we all know his potential.
The Number 1 draft pick is the rebound man for St.Kilda and with M.Maguire out for the year, S.Fisher will need to take more responsibility as a defender making B.Goddard their primary quarterback for the season.
He loves a cheap mark, kicks more than he handballs and has proven to have the ability to score huge.
I am predicting an average of around 88-90 points as he flies home in the second half of the season.

D.Milburn
It may be a big call but i might even say that D.Milburn is the most consistent backman in our game.
I think most people think his age is getting the better of him but as a matter of fact, he debuted the same year as P.Burgoyne.
He may "look" older but they are the same age and they both still have it, especially considering that they were both selected into the Hall Of Fame match.
D.Milburn has averaged over 85 points in his past 3 seasons in 2005, 2006 and 2007.
There is no reason why he can not do this again this year and if you take away the game he played against Sydney, he is actually averaging 83 points this season, just shy of his typical average.
As i said, a consistent performer who is the general in the backline for the best team in the competition.
I am predicting an average of around 86-88 points from him.

G.Birchall
This guy is probably the luckiest to make the cut and could have been replaced by a few others such as P.Burgoyne or J.Drummond.
It is hard to pick and predict so early in the season but i think he has more things on his side compared to the other two, such as age and injuries.
A young, sweeping backman playing for a high possession team in Hawthorn is the perfect ingredient for scoring points.
His consistency will see him remain a high average and he will still break the 100 mark on a handful of occassions which will lift his average significantly.
I am predicting an average of around 85-88 points which will see him scrape into the Top 7 backs.


A final question to finish off:
Why does J.Drummond get the nod over D.Milburn in most of your opinion?

Once you research it and look into the topic a little more, you will realise that J.Drummond is something i like to call "overrated" in the Dream Team community.

theone5 said:

D.Milburn
It may be a big call but i might even say that D.Milburn is the most consistent backman in our game.
I think most people think his age is getting the better of him but as a matter of fact, he debuted the same year as P.Burgoyne.
He may "look" older but they are the same age and they both still have it, especially considering that they were both selected into the Hall Of Fame match.
D.Milburn has averaged over 85 points in his past 3 seasons in 2005, 2006 and 2007.
There is no reason why he can not do this again this year and if you take away the game he played against Sydney, he is actually averaging 83 points this season, just shy of his typical average.
As i said, a consistent performer who is the general in the backline for the best team in the competition.
I am predicting an average of around 86-88 points from him.

<snip>

A final question to finish off:
Why does J.Drummond get the nod over D.Milburn in most of your opinion?

Once you research it and look into the topic a little more, you will realise that J.Drummond is something i like to call "overrated" in the Dream Team community.

Click to expand...

I'll fess up. I just plum forgot about Milburn. Wouldn't replace Drummond in my Top 7 on a predicted average basis, but I would trade him into my team ahead of Drummond, purely based on reliability/durability.

I don't think he'll hit an average of 86-88 though. I peg him at an average of 82. Here's my reasoning, using last year as an example (also for consistency in comparing with Drummond).

His scores to date this year have been 99, 77, 89, 72, 42, 70 and 91.

If we assume he tracks similarly to last year, he had 3 games at 100+ (116, 129, 107), so lets add them in for Rd 8-10.

Let's also take into account his 6 games at less than 70 points (67, 62, 65, 62, 66, 66), and give credit for the Sydney game in Rd 5 this year (taking out the lowest score - a 62), and add them to Rd 11-15.

For Rd 16-22, he would need to average 97 to get a season average of 86.2, and average 103 to get a season average of 88.1. Just can't see him pulling those numbers. If he completed Rd 16-22 at his 3 year average of 85, he'd end up with a season average of 82.4.

So, to Drummond. I'm going to extrapolate from 2007, as I consider it his breakout year. He had 6 games (including the game he got injured) of <100 ppg for an average of 60.8, and 5 games >100 ppg for an average of 117.

His scores to date this year have been 72 and 34. We'll assume he's back in Rd 8 and plays through Rd 22 (optimistic for Drummond, but we have to draw a line somewhere).

If we assume he tracks similarly to last year, he had 5 games at 100+ (135, 111, 105, 118, 116), so lets add them in for Rd 8-12.

Let's also take into account his 4 games at less than 70 points (58, 51, 26, 40), and give credit for his Rd 2 game this year (taking out the lowest score - a 26), and add them to Rd 13-15.

If he then scored at his 2007 season average of 86.4 for Rd 16-22, he would have a season average of 85. I took 5 points off my average above (had him scoring an average of 80), just because my gut told me to underestimate him; eg if he went off injured again between Rd 8-22, after just a couple of touches (say 10 DT points), he'd average 80 for the season.

Again - wouldn't have him in my squad, but scoring 100+ in close to half your games (also a 92 and a 98 in their last year) is a pretty handy way to up your average. But the risk of having double trade him back out for another injury scares me off. Again, another player I might trade a 6th/7th back up to in Rd 19/20 if I have the trades (and he's still on the paddock).


Bowden is the other I disagree with - he's been played out of position (or POOPed as I coin the term) for an average of 78. If Terry is crazy enough to drop him, he's crazy enough to keep POOPing him. Now *that* didn't come out right... Plus I think the Tigers see King as another option now, so he'll get a little less cheap ball. Still see him finishing averaging 80 though, if he ever comes back...

Nebula1971 said:

54Dogs, what was your reasoning for trading out Chad? Asides from the obvious... you rate him so high.

Why trade him and are you planning to get him back?

Click to expand...

This is the only trade I have made this year which was highly debateable and I may live to regret. The trade should certainly be questioned as to it's merits. Reasoning was purely a money making excercise as follows:-

Chad was priced at 430K and planned to miss 2-3 weeks. Ibbo at the time priced at 140K coming off a 100 point game and more importantly looking the real deal. Chad carrying a 65 and looking to return against the Swans where he averages 51 last 3 games against Goodes is in for a substantial price drop to potentially 350-360K with 2x100 point games following the Swans match. Ibbo looks like rising to around 280K.

Basically, trading out made me 290K and trading in will cost me 70K making 220K on the deal. This has provided me with enough cash to trade in Chappy and Cox this week for Gilmore and Hill which could not have otherwise happened.

I actually made the trade after Symes was named last match before the extent of his injury was known. In hindsight (which is a wonderful thing), had I known about Symes I could have dumped him for Ibbo which would have made me 100K less and saved retrading Chad. Unfortunately I did not know this when pulling the trigger.

The only other small bonus this trade provided was around 150-250 points for the team with Ibbo playing while Chad is out. This would have been a zero otherwise.

Is the 200+K worth the trade. I feel like it is this week with Chappy and Cox in the team but may not later in the year when trades dry up. Aggressive trading but only time will tell.

Fair ^ ^ ^ ^

Personally, regardless of circumstances I would have held onto Chad and traded out Symes ... even without knowing that he would be ommited the following week or whatever it was. Guns like Chad, should never be traded out especially for very short term injuries. Trading Chad back in is a wasted trade. As we all know, trades are absolute gold and with the changes in prices this year, the cow is your most important tool to go well in this comp. That trade that you may use to bring Chad back could of potentially be used to cash in on a cow and subsequently upgrade to another star.

Getting the likes of Chapman & Cox is brilliant, however the subtraction of Cornes in the equation detracts from its brilliance.

This is merely an opinion and your move could prove to be a master stroke. By no means am I suggesting it was wrong and what I am saying is correct...

Chad Cornes-No one is close to this man. if he was just a midfielder he would still be in mosts peoples teams. Averaging 101 last year and 101 so far this year it is obvious Chad is the best back going around. Should have been a lock in every team this year.

Heath Shaw- Another back who has been averaging over 100 this year. Has really stood up and is capable of hitting some really big scores (as seen in the last couple of weeks.) Is collingwoods general in defense and racks up possesions week in week out.

Joel Bowden- After a 4 week stint in the reserves expect Joel to return to his best....Will average 90+ for the rest of the year and has been a premium dreamteamer for the last few years. I believe that he will go back to his defensive role after playing up forward for the first few weeks. i guess the next few weeks will be very intersting seeing what scores he gets.

Peter Burgoyne- Like Heath Shaw most of Port Adelaide's attacks start off in defence from this bloke. Gets massive numbers week in week out but his problem however is lack of marks and tackles. Scores well when loose but when he is watched closely and not aloud to roam around the defensive 50 he starts to struggle. However expect Peter to start hitting his straps and should average 90+ for the rest of the year.

That's my top 4 i believe there are aroung 6 players pushing for the last 3 spots in Goddard, Mackie, Milburn, birchall, King, mcleod, Guerra and Drummond

Nebula1971 said:

Fair ^ ^ ^ ^

Personally, regardless of circumstances I would have held onto Chad and traded out Symes ... even without knowing that he would be ommited the following week or whatever it was. Guns like Chad, should never be traded out especially for very short term injuries. Trading Chad back in is a wasted trade. As we all know, trades are absolute gold and with the changes in prices this year, the cow is your most important tool to go well in this comp. That trade that you may use to bring Chad back could of potentially be used to cash in on a cow and subsequently upgrade to another star.

Getting the likes of Chapman & Cox is brilliant, however the subtraction of Cornes in the equation detracts from its brilliance.

This is merely an opinion and your move could prove to be a master stroke. By no means am I suggesting it was wrong and what I am saying is correct...

Click to expand...

Nice points Neb and hard to argue with them. I have thought this one through since making the trade 2 weeks ago and agree that in hindsight Symes was the better trade option and I should have gone down this road. Would have meant only getting 1 of Cox or Chappy but would still be the better option.

The "never trade back in" rule is there for a reason but consider say BJ as an example. Consider if you had him at the start and were worried about the injury in Rd2 and traded him out for Rioli. Who would be the best upgrade option for Rioli ATM, probably BJ. Rioli would have scored you just as many points and made you around 280K on the deal but the trade back in is a good one. Does it break the DT rules, absolutely. Have both trades added value to the team. Probably yes as you have the same number of points but 290K in the bank.

I guess what I'm saying is I will trade CCornes back in as he will add value to the team by returning. I can't get half pregnant.

The dispute rests on whether I should have gone this way in the first place and I tend to agree with you that the answer is no, it should have been Symes.

Chad Cornes - IMO is one probably one of the best 4 players in the AFL as well as DT. Marks, Kicks, Tackles and Goals every week which makes him an ultimate DT and is just about the best DTer of all.

Heath Shaw - Still very young and developing as a player but has already become an elite DTer. With very few great DT defenders he is a must get in your team. Lets just hope he never makes it to the midfield section

Peter Burgoyne - The guy racks up so many easy possessions across half back. Likes to kick and mark which is a great combo for DT scores.

Sam Fisher - Another defender who likes to play loose and does it well with plenty of marks and kicks playing as the 3rd man at most contests. Haven't got him this year but is on the radar with very few premium DT defenders.

Joel Bowden - Although he hasn't done much in 2008, when playing he has scored reasonably well despite playing poorly, I am very interested to see where and how he goes against the Cats this weekend. I am predicting a high score and if he keeps his spot in the Tigers outfit will be right up there in DT points come the end of the year.

Andrew McLeod - Haven't seen him in any other lists but the guy is so consistent and can be played anywhere. Better yet, the Crows love to give it to him because of his great skills.

Grant Birchall - Still young but already consistent. Getting better and better as the year progresses and with the Hawks great form and game style I can't see him slowing down anytime soon. May even be higher than McLeod.

Milburn/Mackie are unlucky but I feel that with Geelong having so many stars they share it around too much for any player to get a lot of it weekly.

I think that there are players who score well in both DT and SC like:

Chad Cornes - a given
Heath Shaw - a given
Andrew McLeod - mr consistency
David Wirrpanda - back to his best
Sam Fisher - sneaks into calculation on both

Specialist DTers

Peter Burgoyne
Andrew Mackie
Joel Bowden
Darren Milburn

Specialist SC's

Graham Johncock
Tadgh Kennelly
Brendan Goddard
Dustin Fletcher

What a shambles this backline has been in 08.

McLeod's dismal performance this week will make him a pretty good target in 2 weeks' time. He is a keeper this season. Milburn will also be a sub-300K bargain for at least the next week. I think Bowden and Goddard will also slowly get back into it. Milburn, Bowden and Goddard all scored 70s this week and any of those three would be good pick ups in the next two weeks IMO. They'll average 85 and that's about what you're looking at in the backline.

Cornes, Shaw, Bowden, Burgoyne (Peter), King are my top 5. The rest in rough order, taking price into account, are Milburn, Johncock, McLeod and Birchall.

I'm in a shrinking minority but I still think Symes if fit is a keeper.

*BUMP*

I just wanted to alter my Top 7 backs which i had listed earlier in this thread.

I am putting P.Burgoyne in for D.Milburn, making my Top 7 as follows:
C.Cornes
H.Shaw
J.Bowden
J.King
B.Goddard
P.Burgoyne
G.Birchall

There are cases to plead for all of them yet there may also be cases to plead for names such as A.Mackie and J.Drummond.

It is extremely hard to predict the lower end of the Top 7 but in general, those backs which i have listed create the perfect backline with no holes whatsoever as the only players who could become replacements are like-for-like players.

These are the guys i reckon will finish the strongest this year.

CCornes
H.Shaw
B.Goddard
P.Burgoyne
D.Milburn
J.Drummond
A.Mackie

Butane said:

These are the guys i reckon will finish the strongest this year.

CCornes
H.Shaw
B.Goddard
P.Burgoyne
D.Milburn
J.Drummond
A.Mackie

Click to expand...

From here on in, i agree with the order but i would add Joel Bowden in that list instead of Drummond. Also Birchall could push for Mackie's spot.

Bowden is the forgotten man in the backline. Many people on the main board keep asking which backman should i get that is over 300k, he is never mentioned.

Probably won't hit his dizzy heights of 95 of last year but i would not be surprised to see him average 85+ from here on. Plays where ever he is need and is putting in the effort that Wallace wants, got a few cheap touches down back last week also. Drummond is just to injury prone, the odds would be on him to miss a few more games and as good as he is when he does play, that would really bring his average down when he does get injured in a game.

Cruiser23 said:

From here on in, i agree with the order but i would add Joel Bowden in that list instead of Drummond. Also Birchall could push for Mackie's spot.

Bowden is the forgotten man in the backline. Many people on the main board keep asking which backman should i get that is over 300k, he is never mentioned.

Probably won't hit his dizzy heights of 95 of last year but i would not be surprised to see him average 85+ from here on. Plays where ever he is need and is putting in the effort that Wallace wants, got a few cheap touches down back last week also. Drummond is just to injury prone, the odds would be on him to miss a few more games and as good as he is when he does play, that would really bring his average down when he does get injured in a game.

Click to expand...

I'd be trading in Drummond before I traded in Bowden. It's hard to explain but with all the Bowden issues this year I'd rather take an injury prone gun then an older x-premium who has spent 4 weeks playing in the reserves. Plus I had Bowden in my team at the start of the year and traded him out when he was dropped. I'm not going to waste a trade getting him back in now. He simply hurt my feelings to much

Butane said:

I'd be trading in Drummond before I traded in Bowden. It's hard to explain but with all the Bowden issues this year I'd rather take an injury prone gun then an older x-premium who has spent 4 weeks playing in the reserves. Plus I had Bowden in my team at the start of the year and traded him out when he was dropped. I'm not going to waste a trade getting him back in now. He simply hurt my feelings to much

Click to expand...

I agree i wouldn't get him again this year, i had the "Lazy One" sitting on my bench for three weeks also. Still think if i hadn't had him, i would pick him over Drummond from here on in, Drummond is to much of a risk for me.

Beau_Waters for PM said:

Here's my top 7, will add explanations soon.

Cornes - average 100
Shaw - average 100
Bowden - average 90 (even after a bad start)
Birchall - average 90
Burgoyne - average 90
Mackie - average 85
King - average 85

Click to expand...

Switch A.Mackie to B.Goddard and it is the same Top 7 as me.
Like i said though, it is like switching a J.Bartel to a J.Corey.
They are too close to judge.

This is how i see it.

As long as you have C.Cornes, P.Burgoyne, H.Shaw and J.Bowden, the next 3 players you choose can come from a group of about 10 players.
With that being said, i think the next best are J.King, B.Goddard and G.Birchall.

Here we go. My top 7.

Cornes - average 100
Its hard to see how a guy racking up that many possessions, tackles and marks can average below 100. Stats machine.

Shaw - average 100
Stats-wise is quite similar to Cornes. That can only be a good thing.

Bowden - average 90
Well, its only 2 games back from his little holiday, but his scores so far are just as good as Rds1-3, only he's getting less possessions! More marks and a higher kick/hb ratio, throw in a couple of goals and you've got Bowden Mk II. I think he'll average 90 from here on in. which should bring his season average to something like 88.

Birchall - average 90
Underrated by DTers. And I firmly believe that. Has been the most consistent backman this season so far, with 4 scores in the 80s, 2 70s, 2 90s and one score of 69. He's getting around 23 touches every game without fail, and add in 7 marks a game and a couple of tackles and you're laughing. I'll be looking to put my money where my mouth is and bring him into my team within the next few weeks.

Burgoyne - average 85
As a DT'er, very similar stats to Birchall, except he averages less marks. However, as a player, Burgoyne is more damaging and his role in the Port side could be said to be more influential than Birch. I originally had Burgs pencilled in for a 90 average, but I've decided to downgrade that a little. His possessions remain fairly constant at between 22-27 per game (one game of 14 and one game of 41, interestingly - as well as a game of 16).
He's only averaging 4 marks per game, but he has only taken 4 marks in a game once this season, the rest have been either above or below. As can be seen by his stats to date, he doesn't actually score in the 80s very often (hasn't done it all season) - he's either arthur (70s) or martha (90s). I'd say you can expect a few huge games from him where he scores 110+, but these may be few and far between.

Mackie - average 85
Mackie is statistically similar to Burgoyne. His disposals tend to have a direct correlation with his DT scores. That may mean that he while he is in form, you'll really notice it on the DT statsheet. But when he's a little off the boil, expect a few 60s and 70s. If Geelong continue to play their running game style, I'm confident he'll continue to rake in the DT points.

King - average 85
The last spot was between Milburn, Bock, Goddard and King.

Milburn - 80.. I never thought I'd say this but, Milburn is a poor man's Birchall.
Goddard - is limited by the number of possessions he gets, the most he's had in 6 rounds is 21. While he takes a stack of marks, he'll only score 90+ if he can bump his average possessions up to 25. Av 80.
Bock - even though he's been in terrific form lately his scores haven't been that great. Should still go alright though. Av 83

King gets more possessions than the other three and also gets a fair few marks (averaging 6 per game so far), add in 3 tackles per game and that is why I believe he will outscore the other three for the rest of the season.

My Top 7:

Cornes: For obvious reasons......no-one needs to be told why he is number 1, even with a stuffed hand he still gets a 90!!

H.Shaw: This boy is so quick! They love giving him the ball and he is so confident with it. He gets a little bit of a losse man role and demands the ball regardless of where he is (ala Cornes boys).

J.Bowden: Kills me to say it but I want him back. I kept him for 3 weeks and then got rid of him. He is a DT veteran and now wallace seems to be playing him as Mr Fix it. Another thing is, he is the garbage time king, loves getting the stats when the game is al wrapped up.

Burgoyne: Is the quarter back for the power and they start there forward penetrations through him. However, like McLeod consistency is his biggest issue. However, when he is on, he is on!!

Goddard: As Baxter said, you don't lose your football brain with a knee reco. He takes alot of marks and is working his way back to his DT best, hopefully will be flying by the end of the year.

Mackie: I have milburn, however, I think by the end of the year Mackie will take the mantle of best cats DT defender from Milburn. He gets alot of the ball in the middle and loves to run off his opponents. Also seems to have a bit of shit in him so is willing to stand up for himself and goes hard!

Johncock: He is the dark horse, no pun intended!! I think he will be in the top 7 by years end. He is also Mr fix it for craigy and plays forward or back. He is also not rated by other teams so gets alot of the footy in the backline. Plays on the last line and seems to be the man to go to when the switches happen! He is loved by craigy and that can be seen by him being offered a 4 year contract a year back.

Unfortunately, not meaning to be racist in anyway but the Aboriginal players do go missing a bit too much for my liking. Milbrun, McLeod, Birchall and Drummond are all notable mentions to this list and were a whisker away from inclusions...

I am looking heavily at Beau Waters at the moment, I'm looking for a wild card to throw me back into the top 500 (from mid 1300's) and he could be a straight upgrade from ellis in the next couple of weeks....Hmmm am I crazy???

just quietly nick malceski would probably in the top 7 backs if he had started fit from the start, i will be looking at him in 3 weeks time assuming he regains last year form

Mr Hard Ball Get said:

just quietly nick malceski would probably in the top 7 backs if he had started fit from the start, i will be looking at him in 3 weeks time assuming he regains last year form

Click to expand...

I agree. But I don't think he'll get anywhere near averaging 85 this year. I've got him book marked for next year.

Butane said:

I agree. But I don't think he'll get anywhere near averaging 85 this year. I've got him book marked for next year.

Click to expand...

he would definitely need to have 2 weeks of 85 plus before i consider him, just looking for who to upgrade for ellis once he peaks in 2-3 weeks after hodge,crawford come back

Interesting with Lucas back to see McPhee named in the backline for the first time this season.

3rd highest rated back last year in that role (avge 89).

On watchlist this week as mid 200s creates interest.