Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 3)

Cruiser23 · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[Continuation of http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=746174]

Been following most of the thread, couldn't keep up with all as it goes at the speed of light but i can't help but notice the amount of people believing Brown is a lock or an anchor. Firstly his price is just $1.40, for me to take that i'd have to be very certain of a victory, with Simon Black to deal with, for me, this is very risky business. The guy is down right loved by the umpires, in 07 he average 21 touches in a Lions 8 win season and managed 22 votes. The last two years he's managed 23 and 19 votes respectively, admitedly they were 10 and 13 wins seasons but the point stands. He's averaged 25 touches and still putting out quality performances, you're have a lot more balls than me to be taking an anchor against him.

Then don't forget Rischitelli has a 6 game head start on Brown and 4 on Black. He's had a very impressive year and is always right under the umpires nose.

You may have Brown in the lead by a couple (seems most have him 2 or 3 ahead) but you have to remember it's just an estimate because you don't have the final vote. There are always errors. Obviously there is some sort of risk in everything, but is Brown worth the $1,40? Personally no.

By no means am i saying he won't win it (i've got him 2 ahead in my count), just for me waying up everything, $1.40 is too short and i certainly wouldn't be calling it an anchor.

I'll be taking Rischitelli in a couple of my multis simply because his $17 is way too good to refuse, otherwise staying away from the Lions.

Hey, but that's just me...

adii_7 · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

You would defs lock in a profit if you placed a bet on the following

Lock - Lock - Two Horse Race - Semi Risk Two/Three Horse Race

Judd - Watson - Harvey/Swallow - Jack/Goodes.. Cassisi/Boak.. Sandilands/Barlow.. Boyd/Cooney.. Hayes/Montagna
Judd - Thompson - Harvey/Swallow - Jack/Goodes.. Cassisi/Boak.. Sandilands/Barlow.. Boyd/Cooney.. Hayes/Montagna
Judd - Brown - Harvey/Swallow - Jack/Goodes.. Cassisi/Boak.. Sandilands/Barlow.. Boyd/Cooney.. Hayes/Montagna

Lock - Lock - Two Horse Race - Semi Risk Two - Bigger Threat Three Horse Race
Judd - Watson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes/Montagna
Judd - Thompson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes/Montagna
Judd - Brown - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes/Montagna

Lock - Lock - Lock - Two Horse Race - Semi Risk Two - Bigger Threat Three Horse Race

Judd - Watson - Thompson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes Montagna
Judd - Watson - Brown - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes Montagna
Judd - Brown - Thompson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes Montagna

Lock - Lock - Lock - Lock - Two Horse Race - Semi Risk Two - Bigger Threat Three Horse Race
Judd - Brown - Thompson - Watson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes Montagna

then take a punt on the locks + 2-3 values?

AhSteveSteve27 · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

I think the phrase '2 horse race' as become so popular recently, it could even become just plain old 2 horse race now. Or even 'horsies.'

Best value out there so far though these things. Why touch St Kilda though? or Freo? Not much value there at all, and they're at least 3 if not four horsies.

AhSteveSteve27 · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

Cruiser23 said:
waying up everything

Shame.

Of course he's a risk, its called gambling for a reason. But that's why the posters on this thread do their homework - so that it become an extremely calculated risk. Cover for Rischitelli (or Black if you like) and leave him out of a few multis and its no big drama. You're probably right, he's probably a touch short but should be in the 1.40-1.70 range, he polls almost as well as Black.

sblack · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

AhSteveSteve27 said:
I think the phrase '2 horse race' as become so popular recently, it could even become just plain old 2 horse race now. Or even 'horsies.'

Best value out there so far though these things. Why touch St Kilda though? or Freo? Not much value there at all, and they're at least 3 if not four horsies.

There is value in Pav and NDS if you really want it.

If Barlow doesn't poll as expected early on, Pav will be right there to take those votes.

NDS is always around the mark.

Brownlow King · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

echelon22 said:
I think this has some merit

Had a quick look over the polling performances of Coleman medallists of the last few years and it looks a little something like this:

2009 - Fevola - 11 votes
2008 - Franklin - 20 votes
2007 - Brown - 17 votes
2006 - Fevola - 9 votes
2005 - Gehrig - 10 votes
2004 - Gehrig - 9 votes
2003 - Lloyd - 14 votes
2002 - Neitz - 11 votes
2001 - Lloyd - 15 votes
2000 - Lloyd - 14 votes

I realise Richmond haven't won as many games this year as most of these teams would have, but when these guys got votes (especially the specialist goal-kickers) it was with big bags in wins and typically they pick up the 3 or 2

I think JVolt fits this mould pretty perfectly, comfortable he'll easily get up around the 9-10 votes mark a la Fev/Gehrig/Neitz

Good work on this. I agrre that J Volt will knock over Deledio and I've used him in a fair few multis.

Brownlow King · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

Hayes2010 said:
Hi all,justed registered ,finally!!!....listened and learnt from you guys last year and turned $600 into $10,500 and that was with 2 ties,delidio cost me heaps more!!!...woulda been 42G's but who's crying,lol...anyways,your are all doin a great job again this year so keep up the great work...BTW,you cant multi team votes on SA Tab,even tho you could last year...so Vic tabonline it is..my best so far is>>>>

Thompson/Watson/Brown/Hayes/Pendles/Goodes/Boak/Boyd...$50 @$44,600

I think this is crazy coz i can see all of these winning!!!!!!

Any thoughts???

Keep up the great work guys

I'd also do the same and swap Boyd for Cooney.

Brownlow King · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

Hayes2010 said:
i'm thinking pendles,boak,boyd and 2 a smaller degree goodes are risks but you fellas seem to rate them highly so fingers crossed.....i have heaps more multis on and hoping for a big night...if most of the following get up im cruising..

Pendles
Hayes
Thompson
Goodes
Watson
Brown
Boyd
J Reiwoldt
Boak/Cassisi/Rodan
Barlow/Pav
Sylvia/Green

and to a lesser extent

Selwood
Harvey

Staying away from Carl,WC,hawks........too short,ala swan and lids last year

Sandilands looks to be an obvious hole in your strategy. Pav no hope it's Sandi or Barlow.

Brownlow King · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

brent-83 said:
Thompson
Brown
Watson
Pavlich
Riewoldt
Hayes
Boak
Goodes
Harvey
Sylvia/Green

= 200k

If Barlow/Swallow/Jack instead of their respective players = 80k

Freo your real problem here. No Sandilands ??

I don't know how lots of you rate Pavlich, maybe give a breakdown of him ?

I have :
Sandilands 20
Barlow 16
Pavlich 9

Brownlow King · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

Athomas said:
Discussed numerous times but anyway, I don't think Barlow will win Fremantles. Sandi should win it. The rest I have as clear favourites.

Good call, finally someone with some sense on freo's count !

Athomas · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

Brownlow King said:
Good call, finally someone with some sense on freo's count !

However, I do have Pavlich leading fremantle though, by 1 over Sandi. I give him a huge chance.

Pav has won fremantles in 04, 05, 06, 07, 08 and 09 and I rate his year as good as last if not better.

My odds would be:
Sandi $1.35
Pav $3
Barlow $10

Hence I think Pav is real value.

EDIT: He's also had more frees then any year of his career!

Brownlow King · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

WaLkEr_ThE_StAr said:
Exactly right. Right up until the 5 leg multis i'll be using the combinations of who I think are '2 horse race players' with my anchors in order to maximise my chances of at least walking away with some profit for the night.

And if I happen to snag one or two 6-10 leg multis i'll probably become a full time Brownlow punter ala. BK.

I'm not quite a full time Brownlow punter and analyst but it did cross my mind last year and if I win big time as expected this year who knows ???

I'm keen to bring out a book that would be a best seller I reckon..." How I Brought Down The TAB ".....

Athomas · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

beez said:
Brad Green won Melbourne's B&F tonight, hopefully a good omen.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...ey-truscott-gong/story-e6frf9jf-1225913539920

Green, 29, took out the Keith "Bluey" Truscott Memorial Trophy with 295 votes from defender James Frawley (277) and ruckman Mark Jamar (231).

haha. Good thing is B+F rewards consitency which is quite the opposite of the Brownlow hence Sylvia not being in the top 5 (missed heaps of games too)

Athomas · Sep 3, 2010

In today's Herald Sun

The Knock
James Frawley has had a brilliant season, but at $2 he is under the odds with TAB Sportsbet to poll the most votes for Melbourne. Back Brad Green at $3 and "any other player" at $11.

Missed Sylvia, but good to see even the Herald Sun are laughing at that market.

stuziman · Sep 3, 2010

Unitab has a few new markets like best midfielder ect

What's everyones take?

I'd say ablett at 2.35 for best mid without swan is fantastic value yeah?

Kevin McAllister · Sep 3, 2010

brown hayes boak riewoldt green boyd
watson hayes boak riewoldt green boyd
watson thompson boak riewoldt green boyd
watson thompson brown riewoldt green boyd
watson thompson brown hayes green boyd
watson thompson brown hayes boak boyd
watson thompson brown hayes boak riewoldt
thompson brown hayes boak riewoldt green

can anyone see any flaws in this betting strategy?

i've just taken 8 players and removed 2 from each bet making them all 6 leg multi's.

sgnl00 · Sep 3, 2010

Kevin McAllister said:
brown hayes boak riewoldt green boyd
watson hayes boak riewoldt green boyd
watson thompson boak riewoldt green boyd
watson thompson brown riewoldt green boyd
watson thompson brown hayes green boyd
watson thompson brown hayes boak boyd
watson thompson brown hayes boak riewoldt
thompson brown hayes boak riewoldt green

can anyone see any flaws in this betting strategy?

i've just taken 8 players and removed 2 from each bet making them all 6 leg multi's.

Would definately place a few 'safer' bets (i.e. 4 or 5 legs) and hedge some options such as Black/Risci, take a dabble on Jack considering:

Green/Sylvia is pretty much 50/50
Boak should win but Port may become a raffle
If Sylvia/Cassisi gets up, you're screwed with only 1 bet without them, and that's if Hayes/Boyd get up... which again, are our favourites but the clubs are close.

It's probably a decent set for 6-legs but I would rely on anchors more, not much value taking them in/out.

brent-83 · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

Athomas said:
However, I do have Pavlich leading fremantle though, by 1 over Sandi. I give him a huge chance.

Pav has won fremantles in 04, 05, 06, 07, 08 and 09 and I rate his year as good as last if not better.

My odds would be:
Sandi $1.35
Pav $3
Barlow $10

Hence I think Pav is real value.

EDIT: He's also had more frees then any year of his career!

I agree that Pavlich is fantastic value, but not too sure I'd be installing Barlow at $10s. I don't quite understand the lack of Pavlich respect, especially from those that I generally agree with for the most part (BK). As a forward the guy managed to get 17 votes in a 4 win team. Granted he kicked more goals than he did this year... but his possession count and goals scored should put him in place to score highly enough. I think Barlow should be fav, with Sandilands next, but only slightly ahead of Pavlich.

To me, Sandilands does not have the runs on the board as far as polling in the past two years stands.

dorded · Sep 3, 2010

BK i have been taking great interest in who you have been putting your money on. Last year you picked 7 of the top 8 missing Brown. Who have you got in your top few this year?

Pumbi · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

brent-83 said:
I agree that Pavlich is fantastic value, but not too sure I'd be installing Barlow at $10s. I don't quite understand the lack of Pavlich respect, especially from those that I generally agree with for the most part (BK). As a forward the guy managed to get 17 votes in a 4 win team. Granted he kicked more goals than he did this year... but his possession count and goals scored should put him in place to score highly enough. I think Barlow should be fav, with Sandilands next, but only slightly ahead of Pavlich.

Its a legitimate point you make, but in their darker days, Pavlich was essentially the only vote getter if Fremantle were to have a good day on the park. This year, while still playing well, Pavlich has to compete with two dominant players from positions that the Umpires are very up close and personal with. Barlow would have caught the eye with his stoppage prowess, and well you can't really miss Sandilands.

twarby · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

Cruiser23 said:
[Continuation of http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=746174]

Been following most of the thread, couldn't keep up with all as it goes at the speed of light but i can't help but notice the amount of people believing Brown is a lock or an anchor. Firstly his price is just $1.40, for me to take that i'd have to be very certain of a victory, with Simon Black to deal with, for me, this is very risky business. The guy is down right loved by the umpires, in 07 he average 21 touches in a Lions 8 win season and managed 22 votes. The last two years he's managed 23 and 19 votes respectively, admitedly they were 10 and 13 wins seasons but the point stands. He's averaged 25 touches and still putting out quality performances, you're have a lot more balls than me to be taking an anchor against him.

Then don't forget Rischitelli has a 6 game head start on Brown and 4 on Black. He's had a very impressive year and is always right under the umpires nose.

You may have Brown in the lead by a couple (seems most have him 2 or 3 ahead) but you have to remember it's just an estimate because you don't have the final vote. There are always errors. Obviously there is some sort of risk in everything, but is Brown worth the $1,40? Personally no.

By no means am i saying he won't win it (i've got him 2 ahead in my count), just for me waying up everything, $1.40 is too short and i certainly wouldn't be calling it an anchor.

I'll be taking Rischitelli in a couple of my multis simply because his $17 is way too good to refuse, otherwise staying away from the Lions.

Hey, but that's just me...

ofcourse there is a risk. i just done some quick research RE Browns 07 season which actually involved 9 wins not 8, theres definetly some interesting games though which have me a little worried.

He polled 16 votes in Brisbane wins, he got 3 votes in a Draw, and another 3 in 33 point loss to collingwood where he had 37 touches and stats wise was the most dominant player on the ground with 171 SC. There was also only a goal the difference at 3/4 time..
one that worries me is that he got the BOG for a 20 possesion game when Browny kicked 6.. a sub 70 SC score suggests Black wasnt the best on ground that day, just like many games this year.. (im sorry for using SC as a rating tool, but as stupid as it is it, in these circumstances it can prove he wasnt in the best.)
the next one that worries me is that in the draw he only got 16 possesions for his 3 votes.
the only other game that looks out of ordinary is his other sub 20 possesion game where he got the 3, he did however kick 2 goals, so that could be the legit reason behind that.

I think Blacks polling is taken out of proportion, hes the type of player umpires like but he still has to have a good game to get votes and his last few years have been very good.
in the past 3 brownlow years hes recieved 64 brownlow votes, 51 of those from BOGs!
hes polled in only 4 losses in the last 3 years, with 2 BOGs (both 37 possesion games)

the fact is he gets most his votes from BOGs, and i think the majority of the posters on this board who have followed this the whole year would look to Black when giving votes, because i think most have began thinking like an umpire, which is why this thread is so successful, the fact is i dont think theres been one game this year where Black could get the BOG.
I honestly think Brown is safe, Black may poll a few 2s and 1s, but it shouldnt be enough to catch Brown, Riscitelli is an unknown hes polled twice in his career, hes had the best year from any lion thats why he should be placed in a few multis. not Black

brent-83 · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

Pumbi said:
Its a legitimate point you make, but in their darker days, Pavlich was essentially the only vote getter if Fremantle were to have a good day on the park. This year, while still playing well, Pavlich has to compete with two dominant players from positions that the Umpires are very up close and personal with. Barlow would have caught the eye with his stoppage prowess, and well you can't really miss Sandilands.

As I said, I'd still have Pavlich on the third line of betting, but I can't see why there is as big a gap as there is. I also think Barlow should be the favourite.

Sandilands isn't exactly new, the past two years he has been arguably as dominant and did not poll that well, which is why I reckon the Pav is value, and I am happy to take the TAB on here. Only in a few of my bets anyway.. not going to take them in all of them.

AjsGuns · Sep 3, 2010

Black was BOG in round 7 (50/50 with Douglas, Adelaide won but Black was slightly better than Douglas a real 50/50) vs Brown BOG in at least 3 games Round 2,19 and 21 with a possible BOG in round 1 then will poll 1-2 in Round 3 and 10. Winner should only have to Poll double figures. Happy to risk

twarby · Sep 3, 2010

AjsGuns said:
Black was BOG in round 7 only. Happy to risk

yeah fair call, i have him down as 2, but its one of those losses he could get the BOG. cant see him getting near 10

twarby · Sep 3, 2010

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

brent-83 said:
As I said, I'd still have Pavlich on the third line of betting, but I can't see why there is as big a gap as there is. I also think Barlow should be the favourite.

Sandilands isn't exactly new, the past two years he has been arguably as dominant and did not poll that well, which is why I reckon the Pav is value, and I am happy to take the TAB on here. Only in a few of my bets anyway.. not going to take them in all of them.

you realise Freo only won 6 games each of those past 2 seasons? with Sandi getting 10 each year, not bad for a ruckman. i admit Pav is amazing value, and he features in some of multis, but i think its down to Sandi and Barlow, Pav could suprise if Barlow doesnt poll early on.. but than it means more chance for Sandi also

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