Fixture, ladder and one very bad prediction

Jade · May 10, 2011

So a few surprises thus far this season, and found myself doing the ladder predictor on the AFL website. Here's what I came up with (P, W, D, L Pts):

Collingwood 22 18 0 4 72
Geelong 22 17 0 5 68
Sydney 22 15 1 6 62
Hawthorn 22 15 0 7 60
Fremantle 22 14 0 8 56
Essendon 22 13 1 8 54
St Kilda 22 13 1 8 54
West Coast 22 13 0 9 52
Carlton 22 12 1 9 50
Bulldogs 22 12 0 10 48
Melbourne 22 9 1 12 38
Richmond 22 9 1 12 38
Adelaide 22 8 0 14 32
Brisbane 22 5 0 17 20
Port Adelaide 22 4 0 18 16
Gold Coast 22 4 0 18 16
North Melbourne 22 3 0 19 12

Proviso here is obviously, in order for the above to be correct I'd have to correctly tip every winner for the remainder of the year, without the benefit of form. Needless to say, not bloody likely.....

A couple things struck me. I really thought Carlton had a very easy draw for the remainder of the year - but I had them drop all the way to ninth. Possibly I'm just really biased against them, but I have them going 7-8 in their remaining games.

I obviously have the opinion that St Kilda will, to at least some extent come good.

I really dont rate North. I'm not sure how they'll cope off field with a wooden spoon - can't be good.

Sydney are a significant challenger.

Worth a crack, try not to think it through too much and go with your gut - see what you come up with.

http://www.afl.com.au/bailey ladder predictor/tabid/13046/default.aspx

Jesse Custer · May 10, 2011

I think your hatred of Carlton clouds your judgement too often. They are a very good side and will finish top 4 or just outside.

Jeremias · May 10, 2011

You belong in Bay 13.

As centurion noted, your hatred of Carlton does nothing but cloud your judgement.

Questioning whether Carlton will make finals this year, from what we've seen thus far this season, is just plain stupidity.

Massive troll yet again Jade. I guess you are bound to get one right some day.

Jade · May 10, 2011

centurion said:
I think your hatred of Carlton clouds your judgement too often. They are a very good side and will finish top 4 or just outside.

Yeah possibly - oh well, at least I can admit as much.

Jentleman Geff · May 10, 2011

Crap thread.

adii_7 · May 10, 2011

ffs jade, what is this crap

seriously, carlton will finish top 4.

dane · May 10, 2011

Just delete the thread.

GordonBlue · May 10, 2011

Well if you look at it, Jade doesn't have us losing much more than winning... i.e. he has us on 12-1-9... which basically means 7-0-8 for the rest of the year...

Which will generally equate to between 5-7... which is not a terrible prediction... it's how he rates the other teams (i.e. 3 wins difference between 10th and 11th...

Jade · May 10, 2011

Jeremias said:
You belong in Bay 13.

As centurion noted, your hatred of Carlton does nothing but cloud your judgement.

Questioning whether Carlton will make finals this year, from what we've seen thus far this season, is just plain stupidity.

Massive troll yet again Jade. I guess you are bound to get one right some day.

So let me just get this straight.

In the OP I said:

1) It's a guess
2) It's most definetely incorrect
3) A dislike for Carlton was likely clouding my judgement in relation to them
4) Give it a crack yourself

Hell, the thread title is "one very bad prediction".....

WCErevival · May 10, 2011

Derby elimination final.

Jeremias · May 10, 2011

jade_00 said:
Hell, the thread title is "one very bad prediction".....

In that case I guess you'll walk away from this thread at the end of the season thinking you were spot on.

You are correct, it is a very bad prediction.

You've been bagged for it from a number of supporters, including non-Carlton supporters - and justifiably so.

Poor thread which, as I said, belongs in Bay 13 alongside the rest of the anti-Carlton shit you seem to constantly offer.

Jesse Custer · May 10, 2011

jade_00 said:
Yeah possibly - oh well, at least I can admit as much.

Look i hate Carlton too, but you have to see that they are going very well. Its hard i know.

Jade · May 10, 2011

adii_7 said:
ffs jade, what is this crap

seriously, carlton will finish top 4.

So I have Carlton going 7-8 for the remainder of the year. I have Essendon going 9-6; only the Carlton-Essendon result later in the year seperating the two (otherwise they'd both be 8-7).

So the difference between the two is, I think the Bombers will beat Carlton.

Not so biased after all - just a few sensitive folk choking on their own rage in front of a monitor....

Underarm · May 10, 2011

saints will lose more than 2 matches for the rest of the year.
Sydney will lose more than 3
Dogs will lose more than 4
Gold Coast wont win 4
Carlton will in more than 7.
Brisbane wont win 5, and North will not get the Spoon.

and i dont think Pies will lose 4.

FRUMPY · May 10, 2011

i am bored so will post my ladder:

Collingwood 22 - 20 - 0 - 2 - 80
Geelong 22 - 19 - 0 - 3 - 76
Fremantle 22 - 18 - 0 - 4 - 72
Hawthorn 22 - 16 - 0 - 6 - 64
Carlton 22 - 15 - 1 - 6 - 62
Essendon 22 - 13 - 1 - 8 - 54
Sydney 22 - 13 - 1 - 8 - 54
Westcoast 22 - 12 - 0 - 10 - 48
-------------------------------
Bulldogs 22 - 10 - 0 - 12 - 40
Richmond 22 - 9 - 1 - 12 - 38
Adelaide 22 - 9 - 0 -13 - 36
Melbourne 22 - 8 - 1 - 13 - 34
StKilda 22 - 8 - 1 - 13 - 34
Lions 22 - 4 - 0 - 18 - 16
North 22 - 4 - 0 - 18 - 16
Port 22 - 4 - 0 - 18 - 16
Gold Coast 22 - 2 - 0 - 20 - 8

I couldnt see Gold Coast winning a game at the start of the season and dont see them winning another one from here on in. Im sure they will but i cant tip which game.

I had collingwood losing to Sydney in Sydney and Freo in Freo. I just have a feeling they will drop 1 or 2 during the year and these could be the ones.

Philth · May 10, 2011

Swans top 4?

North to win the Spoon??

I know it's a guess, but jeez, come on!

Jade · May 10, 2011

FRUMPY said:
I had collingwood losing to Sydney in Sydney and Freo in Freo. I just have a feeling they will drop 1 or 2 during the year and these could be the ones.

I had them drop the same two games, plus one against Geelong and St Kilda each.

Jade · May 10, 2011

Philth said:
Swans top 4?

North to win the Spoon??

I know it's a guess, but jeez, come on!

Give it a crack, try not to think it through too much and a couple will surprise you.

Sydney and Carlton for me....

Helfarch · May 10, 2011

Collingwood losing to Sydney in Sydney is highly unlikely.

Bardo State · May 10, 2011

Gave the predictor a go myself and despite any combination of predictions (changing the winners of games I'm not so sure about) I always had Essendon 6th or lower but somehow they always made the prelim.

JuddsABlue · May 10, 2011

Collingwood 20 - 2 (80)
Geelong 18 - 4 (72)
Hawthorn 16 - 6 (64)
Carlton 15 - 1 - 6 (62)
---------------------------
Fremantle 15 - 7 (60)
Sydney 14 - 1 - 7 (58)
Essendon 12 - 1 - 9 (50)
Bulldogs 12 - 10 (48)
================
Richmond 11 - 1 - 10 (46)
West Coast 11 - 11 (44)
St. Kilda 10 - 1 - 11 (42)
Melbourne 8 - 1 - 13 (34)
Adelaide 6 - 16 (24)
GC Suns 5 - 17 (20)
Lions 4 - 18 (16)
Port Adealide 4 - 18 (16)
N. Melbourne 3 - 19 (12)

I am GC Suns biased, I think they are pretty decent and when it all strings together in a couple of random weeks they'll get some wins

Collingwood made a few slip ups in some away games, its bound to happen

I dont think North are that bad, they should win more than 3.

The difference between Carlton and Freo was Carlton beating them away, so this could go either way.

Jade · May 10, 2011

daannn277 said:
Gave the predictor a go myself and despite any combination of predictions (changing the winners of games I'm not so sure about) I always had Essendon 6th or lower but somehow they always made the prelim.

A gold star for you sir.

slimdusty4 · May 10, 2011

Collingwood 22 20 2 0 80
Geelong 22 18 4 0 72
Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 72
Carlton 22 16 5 1 66
Sydney 22 14 7 1 58
Essendon 22 14 7 1 58
Fremantle 22 14 8 0 56
Richmond 22 13 8 1 54
West Coast 22 10 9 1 42
Melbourne 22 9 11 1 38
St Kilda 22 8 13 1 34
West. Dogs 22 7 0 15 28
Adelaide 22 6 0 16 24
Gold Coast 22 6 0 16 24
Brisbane 22 4 0 18 16
Nth Melb. 22 4 0 18 16
Port Adel. 22 2 0 20 8

please dont be too harsh, it took me 30 mintues.....

i have worked out every game wins nd losses, please query a game...

i have collingwood to not lose after round 14.
gc to win the second q clash.
geelong over hwthorn (purley coz they beat them and i reckon will again).
sydney over essendon (possible percentage thing) as essendon year wears on a small loss could turn into a bit of a 8-9 goal los with their young side.

bris above north- north lose and lose by alot, brisbane simply dont win and dont get belted too often.

but this is also just a guess... :thumbsu:

Bardo State · May 10, 2011

1 Collingwood
2 Geelong
3 Carlton
4 Hawthorn

5 Sydney
6 Essendon
7 Fremantle
8 Richmond
----------------------------------
9 Bulldogs
10 St Kilda
11 West Coast
12 North Melbourne
13 Melbourne

14 Adelaide
15 Port Adelaide
16 Brisbane
17 Gold Coast

Bardo State · May 10, 2011

bloods08 said:
Collingwood 22 20 2 0 80
Geelong 22 18 4 0 72
Hawthorn 22 18 4 0 72
Carlton 22 16 5 1 66
Sydney 22 14 7 1 58
Essendon 22 14 7 1 58
Fremantle 22 14 8 0 56
Richmond 22 13 8 1 54
West Coast 22 10 9 1 42
Melbourne 22 9 11 1 38
St Kilda 22 8 13 1 34
West. Dogs 22 7 0 15 28
Adelaide 22 6 0 16 24
Gold Coast 22 6 0 16 24
Brisbane 22 4 0 18 16
Nth Melb. 22 4 0 18 16
Port Adel. 22 2 0 20 8

please dont be too harsh, it took me 30 mintues.....

i have worked out every game wins nd losses, please query a game...

i have collingwood to not lose after round 14.
gc to win the second q clash.
geelong over hwthorn (purley coz they beat them and i reckon will again).
sydney over essendon (possible percentage thing) as essendon year wears on a small loss could turn into a bit of a 8-9 goal los with their young side.

bris above north- north lose and lose by alot, brisbane simply dont win and dont get belted too often.

but this is also just a guess...

You mean round 15

But I like your ladder and it is pretty similar to mine, except I rate North higher

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Fixture, ladder and one very bad prediction

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