Quigley's 2011 Mock (Warning: Reading Required)

Well kids it's that time again. As per usual a few words before I get into it.

I do not get to see a hell of a lot of these kids and make judgements based on a very small sample size. Be that as it may I try and give both strengths and weaknesses in my write-ups. Some of the weaknesses are going to be wrong with my just catching the guy on the wrong day. I accept that and apologise for any errors.

I don't stress on who I give a player too club wise. I do try and give club's players that will be useful to them but my modus operandi is to work out the general area I want to put a player and then allocate him to a club he will help. The balance can be out when you sit back and look at the draft as a whole (eg Adelaide didn't get any talls and I am not sure Essendon would take Grigg and Ross) but at the end of the day I am more concerned with getting players around where I want them.

My mock is aimed at hardcore draft boffins and people who want to come back after the draft and get a bit of information on the players their clubs draft. I am never going to nail the draft order and getting information out on the players is more important to me.

This year's draft is incredibly difficult to predict. It is weak and after about pick 20 it is an absolute lottery. There are a lot of guys about the same level all of whom have strengths and all of whom have significant weaknesses. Some teams are going to love the strengths of a player and rate him pretty highly and others might not have him at all because they are worried about his weaknesses so much. This is easily the hardest draft I have done to have much idea of who is going to get taken. For example I am doing a phantom with a couple of guys who work for clubs and their were two players taken in the 20s there that I have not mentioned at all in my mock.

The top 10 this year I think is reasonably strong but after that the draft is very weak. KPs especially are poor and if my job was on the line I wouldn't pick any pure ruck outside of Longer. Clubs are going to get lucky at some of their picks but this could easily be a repeat of the 2003 draft.

As you would notice from my previous drafts I like to throw up players no-one is talking about. Some of them work out some don't. They can all play though. Also accept that some players have issues I have no idea about eg I was very high on a certain WA small forward last year and didn't know that he was going to be arrested for armed robbery. These kind of personality issues are difficult to know from the outside.

Anyway on with the show.

Edit - Looking at it on the page it is a little hard to navigate so below is a listing of the guys taken for ease of referernce

1 GWS – Chad Wingard
2 GWS - Stephen Coniglio
3 GWS - Johnathon Patton
4 GWS - Dom Tyson
5 GWS - Billy Longer
6 Port Adel – Toby Greene
7 GWS – Liam Sumner
8 Brisbane - Elliot Kavanagh
9 GWS – Wil Hoskin-Elliott
10 GWS – Henry Schade
11 GWS – Sam Frost
12 Brisbane – Shane Kersten
13 GWS - Sam Docherty
14 GWS – Jackson Paine
15 Richmond – Matthew Buntine
16 Fremantle - Taylor Adams
17 Bulldogs – Brad McKenzie
18 North Melb – Murray Newman
19 Essendon – Mitchell Grigg
20 Fremantle – Adam Tomlinson
21 Swans - Tom Mitchell (Swans F/S)
22 Carlton – Julian Dobosz
23 WCE – Waylen Manson
24 Gold Coast – Joel Hamling
25 St Kilda – Devon Smith
26 Richmond – Tom Downie
PP 27 Adelaide – Hayden Crozier
PP 28 WCE – Brandon Ellis
PP 29 Fremantle – Todd Elton
CP 30 Brisbane – Ben Brown
31 Essendon – Sebastian Ross
32 Geelong – Nick Haynes
33 Hawthorn – Nathan Blee
34 Geelong – Michael Bussey
35 St Kilda – Jordan Lockyer
36 Melbourne – Fraser McInnes
37 St Kilda – Jordan Murdoch
38 Hawthorn – Haiden Schloithe
39 Bulldogs – Jack Frost
40 North Melb – Lee Spurr
41 Adelaide – Shane Nelson
42 St Kilda – Kyle Hartigan
43 Swans – Daniel Markworth
44 Carlton – Michael Florio
45 Port Adel – Thomas Sheridan
46 Adelaide – Meyrick Buchanan
47 Brisbane – Andrew Boseley
48 Geelong – Kallan Geary
49 Bulldogs – Corey Gault
50 Collingwood – Jack Newnes

Other of Interest
David Mirra
Alex Woodward
Marley Williams
Jack Crisp
Aseri Raikiwasa
John McKenzie
Larry Owen
Brodie Mihocek
Piva Wright
Lachie Neale
Danny Butcher

Players I don’t rate (short reason only)
Talia
Bolger
Bootsma
Yeo
Forster
Hill
Clay Smith

Qlders
Sam Michael
Sam Cabrera
Mitch Brewer

NSW Scholarship Players
Richard Newell
Jarrod Witts
Michael Hartley
Beau Black

Pick 1 – GWS

With pick 1 I take the guy I rate the highest and that is Wingard. I have loved his work for the last couple of years and he didn’t give me any real reason to doubt him this year. Some talk that GWS might pass over him but I struggle to see why they would and both Sheeds and Choco love their indigenous talent. On talent there are three standouts this year and he is one and he can play both in the midfield and as a small forward which they could definitely use.

Chad Wingard
DOB 29/7/93 Ht 181 Wt 77

If you offered me anyone in this draft I would take Wingard and not even think twice. Chad is an all around talent that brings class to wherever he is playing. He is equally capable in the midfield and up forward and played a lot in both positions throughout his junior career. He is another elite basketballer (State and National representation) who brings the great spatial awareness common the good basketballers to his football. He has an uncanny knack of knowing what is going on around him and where everyone is and he reacts very quickly to take advantage of this.

There is no-one who was tagged harder at the Champs this year than Wingard and he showed excellent patience and determination to keep working. He went forward, into the contest and generally just continued to work to find the ball. He was restricted by a few guys who did a really nice job on him like Newell of Qld but his class still showed. He is a left footer and is an elite user of the ball with great feel and touch on his kicks. His decision making is the equal of anyone in this draft. One particular time in the Qld game really sticks in my mind when thinking of him. On one occasion he was going forward with Newell closing him down but he held, held, held until his man got open and then delivered it perfectly whilst getting tackled. It was great poise under pressure and ability to read the play and execute.

In the clearances he has excellent hands and works very nicely in the phone box. He also doesn’t commit too early and if the ball doesn’t come to him straight away he will work to get open to receive or shadow the ball to enable him to attack the play if something presents. He is still slight in build and despite having good balance he gets buffeted around a lot at present.

Up forward he will give you an aerial target but he is also an excellent crumber who will arrive at the spillage at just the right time to gather and finish. He also has the tricks and will regularly do things like prop to get the man into his back or run him under the ball to beat him back the other way. He is not an exceptionally long kick but he has reasonable penetration. He is a good kick for goal but he does tend to guide the ball through rather than kick through it. Whatever though it does work. His agility is very good and he is elusive. He reminds me a bit of Cyril in the way he plays up forward and through the midfield although he is probably a step below Cyril in elusiveness but a step above him in running ability and marking. He has that same kind of class and game winning ability though. He can really get up in the air for his height and can mark the ball once he is up there. He won the running jump at Combine and would also have been in the top ten jumping off his non-preferred leg which is not something I think I have seen before. He was also in the top ten in the standing jump.

It’s really noticeable that wherever he is on the ground the group just seems to work that much better and is more dangerous. He lifts those around him and they know that he will get them the ball if they are open and they can rely on him the other way if they need to use him. He is class and it rubs off onto those around him and this is not always the case even with the top talents.

One thing teams will look to try and do from day one though is get some weight on his bones. He still looked very thin at the Champs but he weigh in a few kilos heavier at Camp which was good to see although that might not have helped his endurance which was poor. His strength is below average at the moment and he definitely needs some serious time in the gym. I am sure he has been on a program and this might cause teams some concern with regards to likely durability. Durability is a big thing for him as he has missed games this year with an assortment of ailments and has had a couple of concussions. Nothing major that I am aware of but teams will want to check him out medically.

Wingard was the captain of the SA team and teams like to see leadership potential in their high draft picks. Chad is not a great tackler but he is around the ball so much that he ends up making quite a few. He will work defensively but this has not really been a focus for him to date and he does not really have the engine to do too much work. He is not adverse to doing the 1%ers which again teams like to see from star juniors.

His form dropped off toward the end of the year and combined with his durability issues this has some particularly in the media dropping him down the order. What I see though is a thin kid who played fantastically well despite having a beep test result that put him in the bottom 7% at Combine and is far from physically mature. Look at the upside here people, the kid is prepared to do the work and imagine what he is going to be like once he gets his body up to where his competitors are. Sure he might start slow in the AFL but like Cyril, Chad has a massive amount of talent and his ceiling is sky high. He is more of a midfielder than Cyril and if he gets anywhere near his potential he will be an elite player in the competition. If GWS allow him to fall through to Port they are fools.


Pick 2 – GWS

Coniglio is probably the highest rated midfielder this year generally and is a certainty to go in the first two.

Stephen Coniglio
DOB 15/12/93 Ht 182 Wt 80

Coniglio is the likely number 1 pick I think and a certain top 3. He has drawn various comparisons to the likes of Swan and Judd and he certainly has a lot of the attributes of those top midfielders. Personally I would compare him to Martin of the Tigers for game style without the personality concerns which worried me with Martin. He has racked up awards all along the way being an AIS player, 2011 WAFL Rising Star and 2011 Champs Larke Medallist. He has also represented WA at cricket but unlike Mitch Marsh a couple of years ago it was pretty clear that he was the better footballer than cricketer and despite taking his time to decide he was always going to play AFL. He has said previously that he did not want to go to GWS and he wasn’t going to declare for the draft but eventually he relented and he is a certainty to end up there now that WC were not able to work something out at the trade table. If I was a GWS fan though I would not invest too heavily in him as I reckon he could be one to demand a move as soon as his contract is up.

Coniglio did not test at the Combine this year given he has been carrying a knee injury for a while now. It is apparently nothing serious but he has been rehabbing it for about 6 weeks and I don’t think there was any real need for him to stress it out. According to Shifter he is a 2.80s runner in the 20m and he really does play like it. He also has elite endurance and regularly burns people off with his hard running. The combination of those two athletic qualities is going to makes him much like Martin and both will be exceptionally hard to tag at the next level. He is a guy who is always in motion and moving to good spots to receive or influence the play and who can shift up a couple of gears when he needs to. The ability to run all day but still have an elite burst of pace really sets him apart.

At the Champs this year he averaged 22.4 disposals per game, 10.4 of which were contested. He plays predominantly as an inside midfielder who is very dangerous when resting up forward. He has really nice clean hands in the contest and good but probably not super quick hands in the clearance. He reads the ruck’s taps well but again I would not put him right at the top of the tree in this regard. What really catches the eye in the clearances though is that when he does get it he has the ability to put the jets on and burst from packs Chris Judd style. In the contest he has really good strength and balance and he holds his feet very well. He is not someone who goes to ground easily.

Skills wise I think there is room for some polish although he is pretty damaging atm especially by foot. Still he needs to inject more power into his handballs and his kicking could use a little work especially at speed. He is a right footer who has reasonable proficiency on his left. His most common kick is a short to three quarter strength punch kick with which he has good accuracy and feel. When he is at full pace though he very often loses his accuracy and has a tendency to lean back on his kick sliding it away from his target. He does have good penetration on his kicking when he chooses to use it which is not terribly often in field play. He is an excellent read of the play though and chooses the best and most dangerous options on most occasions.

Up forward he is an excellent crumber who uses his pace well to swoop in and burst away. He has excellent goal sense and is a definite finisher around goal. As a 16 year old last year (he hadn’t yet turned 17) he played in the WAFL GF and picks up 4 goals from his 17 disposals. He is capable of taking a nice contested mark but I would not say that overhead marking is a strength of his game. Not bad but not something which I would consider would set him apart from other small forward prospects. Similarly he is not a big lead-up player up forward but this could be worked on as his pace and ability to give repeat leads should allow him to get separation easily and make him exceptionally hard to match up on. His set shot is fairly accurate although again he often has a tendency to lean back on his kicks which can slide the ball across the face on occasions. With that said he has the distance out to 55m or more and that kind of length makes him a weapon anywhere in the forward half.

Defensively he is better than most junior prospects you will find especially the “stars” who often think that tackling and running the other way is for lesser players. Coniglio averaged 4 tackles per game at the Champs and he uses his pace exceptionally well in this regard. He can be in the vicinity and put it up a gear for a few steps and close the man down before he has a chance to dispose of it. Up forward he is not as effective a chaser as he might be but again this is something I expect will be sorted out at the next level.

Coniglio is also a kid who seems to have his head screwed on right. He was captain of WA this year and is attending uni after finishing up at school last year. It’s also worth remembering that being born in December makes him one of the younger prospects out there as well. There is a lot to like about him and he has the tools to be a star of the competition.

Pick 3 – GWS

GWS will take Patton or Coniglio number 1. They will make the selection I think based on who will handle the pressure of being number 1 better and who will deal with the initial media queries better. In reality there is little to separate the pair.

Jonathan Patton
DOB 20/5/93 Ht 197 Wt 95

Patton has been the guy who has gotten the most publicity this year with the obvious comparisons to Tom Hawkins. He is similar in size to the big cat and has had a similar year to Hawkins had prior to being drafted. The question everyone wants to know is whether he will have a similar career to Hawkins who has largely disappointed to date given his talent level. Hawkins is probably the floor for Patton with Lockett being the ceiling. He has that kind of potential but I feel he will end up somewhere in the middle.

I saw Patton for the first time this year in the game against NSW and I defy anyone who saw that game to come away with it with an opinion that Patton was a legitimate number one option. Patton was absolutely dominated by Hartley for the first three quarters and Patton only got into it in the last when Hartley wore down. Until three quarter time Patton had only two possessions both being cheap marks well up onto the wings where he was no threat. I have subsequently seen a fair bit more of him where he has looked much better but some of the concerns remain for me.

When Patton has someone on him with the size and athleticism to go with him he looks a shadow of the player he seems against lesser opposition. At AFL level he is going to match up every week against guys with the kind of size and athleticism which has troubled him to date. He doesn't often rely on his strength to overpower his defenders but guys with size do trouble him. He will continue to work and his body language seems fine but he often just seems to be going through the motions. He doesn't lead as hard and he often just seems to be waiting for the spoil to come. He doesn't attack the ball with the same vigour as he does against obviously overmatched defenders.

That is not to say that there is not a hell of a lot of potential there. Patton has great size, good athleticism and is a natural forward. He leads to good spots, has good hands over his head and is usually a good finisher. Once he has gotten hold of a defender he also doesn't take his foot off his throat and can kick bags. When his confidence is up he is a dominating presence out there. When the ball hits the ground Patton reacts quickly and gets the ball out much better than you would normal see from a key position forward of his size. He is not hugely agile and is not a real big goal threat when the ball hits the ground but he knows it and he finds other options very well. He reads the play very well coming in and reacts quickly.

He is a good finisher around goal and is good with the banana. With his standard set shot he has good technique and a big leg. He is usually accurate from distance although there are a couple of things he needs to work on. At the Champs he got a bit close to the man in the mark too often but this could be sorted out easily. From the left side he also has developed a ridiculous jag out at the last minute which I assume he does to open up the angle but all it does is put him off balance and he invariably puts it wide. I don't know who told him that this was a good idea but his coaches should have shut it down well before now. He gets about 10m from the man on the mark and then takes about three steps at 45 degrees from the mark putting him off balance and forcing him to kick across his body. It should be play on but the umps do not usually call it. Again it should be something easy to fix but I find it hard to understand how it has stayed in his game as long as it has.

Patton doesn't really rely on his size too much at junior level. He can occasionally get marks from displays of strength with wrestling matches or push offs but usually he gets his marks on the lead. He judges the flight well and usually takes the mark at the highest point or out in front of himself. He does not protect the drop zone as well as some which is another thing he will need to work on. Overall though he is about as good a U18 KPF prospect as you will find come along. There is no guarantee that he will become a superstar but there is a lot to work with and its hard to see him failing completely barring injury.

Pick 4 - GWS

Fair bit of talk about Tyson going at 3 but take it as a given he will be picked at either 3 or 4. Between the guys they already have and those they take this year GWS will have some quality young inside players and give guys like Tyson a year to develop and guys who like Ward who they will be paying a stack of money will struggle to get games.

Dom Tyson
DOB 8/6/93 Ht 186 Wt 80

Tyson has steadily climbed draft boards all year and is now considered by most to be a rock solid top 5 pick with potential to be taken as high as three. He had an excellent Champs and has performed at a very high level all year. At the Champs he averaged 22 disposals per game 11 of which were contested. He also managed a very respectable 3.6 tackles per game.

Tyson is an inside midfielder who has improved his outside game enormously this year. He is now equally dynamic in either role in my opinion and has the potential to be a ball magnet at the next level. Tyson has good endurance and gets to good spots to receive and link up. He is only midrange athletically but he tends to get the most out of himself and is a smart footballer who uses those smarts to decide where and when to run. He is a smooth mover in space and covers the ground with some style although he is probably a yard slower than some of the quicker outside options available this year.

He has a reputation as an elite user of the ball but this may be a bit strong imho. He is often a very good user of the ball showing great weight and touch on his kicks. He doesn’t however have great penetration and when he reaches for distance he tends to get a lot of air in his kicks. It is also not uncommon for him to miss targets. Usually these misses are only by small margins but they are misses all the same. He has a relaxed easy stroke going for goal when he is within range but winds into it a bit when searching for distance and his accuracy suffers. He is a left footer with good skills on his right.

Where I think Tyson is elite is in how quickly he evaluates a situation. He reads play very well and invariably takes the right options. He seems particularly good at reading how space will open up for both himself and the person he is getting the ball to. As a consequence he has really nice hurt factor on his disposals. In tight he has very clean hands and is good (probably not elite) at getting the ball out of the clearance situations. He can occasionally take to long to get his foot to the ball or be caught waiting to make a handball.

Tyson is good at floating into the forward line and into space. Overhead he is excellent for an inside mid and I think he could develop into a nice goal scoring option at AFL level. Being an insider player I would have expected him to be a good crumber of the ball up forward but this is not something which I have noticed in his game in the matches that I have seen him play.

He has a bit of an unusual build for an inside mid at under age level being quite tall and thin but he will be fairly midrange height-wise at the next level. He should fill out pretty well once he gets to a club and he is not exactly rake thin at the moment. He has good balance over the ball though and seems to hold position well.

I noticed Snoop compare Tyson to Nick Dal Santo and I think this is apt. He has similar body shape and size and the same inside outside game style. Both are elite decision makers and Tyson with some work could end up with kicking skills similar to Nicky Dal. Overall he is a really nice prospect.


Pick 5 - GWS

Now things start to get interesting. Giles will go alright next year with Brogan, and Phillips has some talent, but the ruck is probably the biggest need area for GWS based on what is already at the club. Longer is head and shoulders above the next best ruck talent and I don’t take the risk that Port might go with a best available policy and take him. Need would be too high here for me. WHE and Buntine are being talked about here and if GWS are confident Port will not take Longer they might go with one of them.

Billy Longer
DOB 12/5/93 Ht 201 Wt 98

We are going through a bit of a golden age for young ruck prospects and Longer is another one. Longer is probably the best ruck prospect to come through the draft in the last couple of years (note Smith was a zone selection and not drafted). I think he will develop into a very physical style of ruck and he will be banging bodies with the likes of Mumford before too long.

Currently he has a reasonable physique for an AFL ruck but he is only going to become a very imposing figure even by AFL standards as he gets older and spends more time in the gym. He has nice height and he uses it very well. He is not a huge possession ruck but he does work hard and as he improves his endurance I think he will become more involved. At the moment he works hard and covers plenty of ground but that is usually just getting where he needs to be for a contest. He also tends to die a bit in the second half of games a bit. So currently the mind is willing but the body can’t hold up its end. From the amount of work he currently does and the amount he pushes himself I don’t see there being any problem for him to get his endurance up to scratch.

In the ruck contest itself he was far and away the best tap ruck in the Champs this year. He is right handed but taps with his left hand for some reason but be that as it may he is very effective with that left hand. He gets good height on his leaps, controls his body excellently and directs his taps down the throat of the free midfielder. He is very good at finding the open guy and when it comes to a wrestle at bounces or throw ins he is very strong and holds his ground well. After the tap work has been done he recovers very quickly and will follow up and become involved in the play. He has nice hands in close and shepherds and clears space for his mids to work in very nicely.

The other feature of his game is his marking. He is a stand out with the ball dropping on his head, having great judgment of the ball in the air and using his height and stretch to take it where few others can get to it. His hands are very soft and he watches the ball intently into his hands and is not distracted by body contact. He works hard to get into the square at both ends when the balls are coming in and he regularly comes up with marks close to goal. He hasn’t been a big leader this year but last year when he played as a forward a lot at the Champs I thought he got out on the lead well and was difficult to stop. I would expect he could start his career as a forward / 2nd ruck and be very dangerous doing so. He is pretty quick for a big man and last year lead to pretty good spots. He also presents as a great goal square target given how strong he is in taking those types of balls.

The big weakness in his game is his kicking. He seems to look to take pretty good options but his execution lets him down very regularly. He has little or no confidence in his kicking and when he is forced to kick he punches or underkicks it and does not kick through it. I am not sure he watches the ball onto the boot enough and his drop may be a little erratic. When he does just go long he has reasonable penetration and I have a couple of notes from games commenting on him making a nice long kick. His kicking for goal is not much better than his field kicking which is a factor which might inhibit his usefulness as a forward option. Wherever he goes to next year be it Sydney or Adelaide he is going to be doing a lot of work on his kicking.

Longer was one of the leaders of the Vic Metro side and if you saw any of their games this year you would have noticed him being the one who was doing the talking to the players. Overall I think he is an excellent prospect and if he can sort out his kicking could easily become one of the elite rucks in the game.


Pick 6 – Port Adelaide

Port supporters might turn up their noses a bit with the Greene pick as he is not as sexy as some and they are adequate in the clearance department already. Personally though I think they could really use a hard edged Footballer and that is what Greene is. Taking him would also allow them to build a real area of strength in the clearance department and being dominant in the clearances wins you football games in the AFL. Port would love Wingard to be here on draft day and there is a chance it could happen. He would be great for them if it happened.

Toby Greene
DOB 25/9/93 Ht 181 Wt 76

For many Greene has been the surprise packet of the year. He has come from a mile back at the start of the year to win the Metro MVP of the carnival and just have a great all around year. He averaged 24.5 disposals a game at the Champs and is a very good shot at being a top 10 pick in the draft this year.

Greene is a bit of a baby faced assassin. He is a quiet young guy apparently and combine that with him looking about 12 and it’s easy to underestimate him. Despite appearances though he is a tough inside mid who has turned himself into an absolute ball magnet. He may not be an elite reader of the ball off hands but he is always around the pill and when he gets a chance at the ball he attacks and has very clean hands.

Greene has a midrange top speed but he has a great burst with his first couple of steps. He can explode into motion and use it to clear the contest or shut down the opposition ball handler. He uses this burst very well and it is a feature which sets him apart from most inside mids available. A lot of junior mids stand there and wait for the ball but Greene specialises in being moving when the ball comes to him and that makes him a much better clearance player.

In the contest he has exceptional awareness of where everyone is around him and he is very good at deciding when to hold the ball and when to get rid of it. He is very elusive and plays with great agility (interesting though he tested very poorly for agility) which he uses to avoid being tackled and as a consequence he usually seems to have more time than those around him. He has the ability to hang onto the ball a second or two more than most and waits for things to open up for him. The ability to stop on a dime and then go at full pace another way straight after also makes him a very difficult guy to tackle. Even when he is tackled he has good composure and doesn't rush his disposal.

Although he is predominantly an inside player he does cover a lot of ground and links up well. He can be a bit sloppy with his kicking although this has improved out of sight this year. He does not have much in the way of penetration but he usually weights his kicks pretty well. At AFL level there will continue to be a big focus on his kicking and generally getting more velocity into his kicks but there is nothing to suggest it will not continue to improve as it has done this year.

He has worked hard at improving his endurance this year and this is one of the reasons he has been able to step up and dominate as he has done. He ran an elite 15.2 in the beep test at Combine and he brings this kind of running ability to his game. He is a gut runner who gets to every contest no matter where it is on the ground. He will pop up deep in the back line one minute and then be on the end of the chain at the other end the next.

He is not a particularly good shot on goal and realises it and often will look to hand off. When he does take a shot he is prone to missing goals he should get. Overall though he would be close to if not the best inside prospect available this year and if a team needs help in the clearances he is one they should look at. Further not only will he win the ball in the packs he will spread and work hard in open play. He does need to polish his game a bit but what is there at the moment in very much needed in the modern game. He is a similar player perhaps to Kane Cornes but hopefully he might end up with better kicking skills.


Pick 7 – GWS

GWS have a great array of inside /out talent and could use some speed and X factor on the outside. Sumner is the guy I think who gives them that and has the most upside of anyone available here. If GWS take a risk on letting Longer fall then I see him going at this spot and there is also a real chance they could jump at Tomlinson here to prevent the Lions getting him.

Liam Sumner
DOB 16/8/93 Ht 178 Wt 71

Its often very easy for us amateurs to overrate players like Sumner and probably have done so by putting him here but what the hell you like who you like. He is not a big possession winner at any level and when he flashed a few great plays at the Champs and everyone jumped onboard and talked him up. In this regard Sumner is a lot like Blease was a few years ago but unlike Blease, Sumner has consistently shown the ability to amaze and has worked hard to improve his game in areas that needed work. He does need to improve his inside work and other aspects of his game but he realises that and has worked hard all year to do just that and he has improved.

The thing which sets Sumner apart from the crowd at under 18 level is the pace at which he plays the game. He attacks the ball or man at full pace and he executes. Juniors often struggle when they step up to the next level and are forced to do things quicker and at full pace. Sumner should not have much trouble adapting as he already does just that. He runs to collect at pace, kicks on the run at full pace, tackles at pace and generally just attacks the game at pace. He is there and gone before the opposition can react and this provides enormous X factor with his game.

The comparison is regularly made to Dale Thomas and I think the comparison stands up very well. Sumner may not ever be the forward that Thomas was but they will be pretty similar in the way they play through the middle of the ground. It took Thomas a few years to work out what he needed to do to become an elite midfielder and I think it may take Sumner a little while to get there as well but I think he already knows what he needs to work on and has started doing it.

The two major areas physically which he needs work are his weight and his endurance. He is never going to be a particularly solid guy but give him a year in the system and the weight issue should take care of itself. His endurance base is something which he has improved a great deal this year but he still needs to improve a fair bit more to let him play the way he needs to play i.e. like Thomas. Improving his endurance will enable him to play more time, get to more contests and generally just influence the game more often. His team is going to want the ball in his hands and improving his endurance is a key to this happening. He tested probably a little better for endurance at the Combine than I expected (scraping into the top 30% in the beep and 3km) which shows the work that he has been doing but he has a way to go to get it up to where it needs to be for the AFL.

On the park it’s really noticeable how well he runs the lines and how well he reads when to run them. He seems to innately know where to run in traffic and the defenses often just seem to open up in front of him. He is has a nice balanced running style and he has very good pace and evasiveness as well. He ran a 2.90 in the 20m and finished in the top 10 in the repeat sprint which showed that he times fast as well as plays fast. He has a very quick first couple of steps and has top shelf agility (top 20%) that makes him very difficult to tackle and on the other side of the coin allows him to make a lot of tackles himself. Tackling is something else he has improved a lot over the course of the year. Being a predominantly outside player he was not a big tackler but after being told by his coach to focus on it more he has improved a great deal and is now very dangerous if the ball is in his area. He closes the man down very quickly and pins the arms well.

Sumner is a very thin guy at the moment but he has pretty decent core strength. He holds his feet well in contests and has exceptional balance. He also recovers very quickly when he leaves his feet or the ball goes to ground and this can be a major advantage for him. With the ball on the ground he has nice clean hands and will collect and dispose of the ball cleanly and with pace. He has done more inside work as the year has progressed and he is capable inside although he is used most often as a receiver. As he develops physically and he works on it more I see no reason why he could not develop an inside game much in the way that Thomas has.

One of the features of his game is his delivery into the forward line. His ability to weight inch perfect passes to his forwards at full pace is exceptional. His kicks may lack a little zip but they usually put exactly where the forward wants it or needs it so that the defender can’t get to it. He may also be the best kick in this draft off his non-preferred. He is a capable goal kicker although he does perhaps have a bit of a highish release. He has kicked some bags in the TAC this year and gets up into the air well to mark (he with third in the running jump at Camp with 88cm) or on the lead. Overhead his hands are solid but not fantastic.

Sumner is not someone who has been an elite player throughout his junior career and accordingly has not been gifted an armchair ride. He has athletic talents but he has had to constantly work at his game to get it to the stage where it is at. He seems to take feedback well and works hard to correct deficiencies in his game. What he also does better than most of the guys who have been the “star” all the way along is work for his teammates. He blocks, shepherds, covers and does all the other little 1%ers that are often the difference between a winning team at AFL level and the also rans. Overall I like Sumner a lot and think he has the potential to be an elite player at AFL level. Whether he has the ability to win more of the ball is the only thing stopping me from putting him higher in my mock.

Pick 8 – Brisbane

Kavanagh is a top 4 talent whose injury issues could see him drop down the order maybe further than this. Personally I am happy to take him here and hope that his injury issues are a thing of the past. Top talents like Heppell and Selwood have fallen on injury concerns and here seems to be about where they go. Word seems to be that Brisbane are interested in WHE, Sumner or perhaps Tomlinson here.

Elliot Kavanagh
DOB 19/5/93 Ht 185 Wt 75

This is a kid who was on a lot of people’s radars coming into the year after averaging 25 disposals, 12 contested possessions and 9 tackles a game in his 4 TAC games for the Western Jets last year. Unfortunately persistent hamstring and knee tendonitis injuries have cruelled his year. He missed all of the Champs and only managed a few games toward the end of the year. He did attend the Combine but I doubt he was at his physical peak and the performances were perhaps a little below what they might otherwise have been. Notwithstanding that he did win the clean hands award with 28/30 equaling the mark set last year by Caddy and Heppell.

Despite the TAC numbers from last year I would not generally consider Kavanagh to be a big possession winner during his junior career nor a big contested ball winner. He plays mostly as a winger where he has shown great dash, skills and decision making. He reminds me a bit of Daisy Thomas and he has that kind of hurt factor about his game. He is capable of winning his own ball when it’s his turn but he is probably an outside/in player at the moment rather than the other way around. With that said I could easily see him starting onball as he develops as he does have superb hands being both clean and quick.

He is described by many as being the complete package as a midfielder and when you break it down you can understand why. Physically he has nice height and a build which will fill out. In game situations he seems to have good endurance and a really nice burst of pace which he uses regularly during games. With the ball in hand as already mentioned he has high hurt factor. He can break the lines and his option taking is elite. His kicking is good and he puts the ball where he aims it. He has a strong competitive instinct and will get in and mix it up working hard both offensively and defensively. He might be the best tackler of the top group of prospects. He hunts the player, uses his pace well to close them down and then sticks the tackles when he gets his hands on them.

From what little I have seen his work up forward is solid and he seems to have good penetration on his kicking. I am not sure how this has been affected by his injury issues. He is good overhead and shows nice soft hands and good body control in the air. He is not the most dangerous around goal but he is not bad either.

This is a guy with major X factor and provided his body is right he could easily be up there with the best players to come out of this draft. GWS with all their picks may be best placed to take a punt on him but there is major talent there and the pay off could be huge with him. The player he reminds me of most from the last few years is Hamish Hartlett in both his skill set and his injury concerns. I am hoping he has a bit better run with injuries but that worry is why he is being talked about around pick 10 rather than pick 4 where Hartlett was taken.

Pick 9 – GWS

At pick 9 it is just going to be a matter of GWS picking whatever low lying fruit remains. For me that is WHE but realistically any of the last 4 or so picks could still be available here and I think GWS will just take whoever is left.

Wil Hoskin-Elliot
DOB 2/9/93 Ht 186 Wt 73

WHE has become a bit of a BF favourite but personally I am not as sold as some of my fellows but I like him enough not to drop him down too far. Why I am reluctant to drop him down too much is because of how much his style of play reminds me of Fyfe and every team could use a player like that.

Hoskin-Elliot has a build very reminiscent of Fyfe being very lean with long arms. He also specialises in the drifting in from the side and standing in front of the pack style marks. His judgment of the ball in the air whilst he is on the move is superb. He times his arrival at the ball magnificently and takes the ball at its highest point with very nice, soft hands. Even when he doesn’t take the mark he controls the ball to ground.

Hoskin-Elliott also created a great deal of interest when he broke the previous Combine beep test record. He was beaten by Hill in both the beep test and the 3km run but anytime you go 15.12 in the beep it is something to be very proud of. Take it as a given the kid has elite endurance and unlike most juniors this is not something he needs to improve to compete at AFL level. He also has reasonable pace but he is a step below elite in this category. On the park he has a long loping stride which covers the ground well but he is not as smooth or balanced as you think he might be. He loves to take the game on when he gets the ball and he is pretty good at it if he has an open field in front of him. If someone is in front of him he likes to take them on but really he is not very elusive. He does not have much of a step and I think he will run himself into trouble a fair bit at the start of his career. Someone also needs to sort out his bouncing. At the moment he bounces early and often and at speed it all too often does not come back to him.

I do love however what he could do for a team like the Lions defensively through the middle of the ground. His endurance, ability to run at pace over distance and marking ability allows him to create havoc with teams trying to go long. He will make up for the defensive frailties of other young players around him and he looks born to play in a push zone defense where he can sit back and pick off rushed kicks from defense. Tackling wise he is willing and puts in the effort to chase down players but he can be brushed off a bit at the moment with him arm tackling too much. He does not have the strength at the moment to tackle that way and it’s unlikely, given his frame, that he will have the strength to tackle that way against AFL players.

Skills wise I would not say he is an elite kick but he does have significant hurt factor. He has reasonable penetration and takes really good options. He doesn’t lose a lot of accuracy at pace which is good given how he likes to play. He can take the ball and be gone and, without needing to slow down, he can get it where it needs to go before the defenses have time to readjust. He doesn’t mind having a ping for goal but he is not a big goal kicker. He does not have quick hands and I can’t seeing him playing inside much. He is a winger / receiver with limited inside skills.

The big failing of Hoskin-Elliott that I saw from the Champs is not what he did when he got the ball its simply that he did not get enough of it. This is a kid that can run into the ground anyone on any of the opposition teams but he was rarely open to receive the easy ball. He was great taking the spectacular mark but he was not involved nearly enough in the linking plays to enable his team to move the ball easily. He averaged only 14 possessions a game at the Champs and for someone with his endurance that speaks of someone who either is not prepared to work hard enough or does not have the football IQ to run to the right spots. Both of these can be worked on but can be difficult to overcome. There are not a lot of guys who averaged under 15 possessions at the Champs who suddenly go on to be a big possession winner at AFL level and if I am spending a top 10 pick on a winger I want someone who can get plenty of the ball.

So all in all there is a fair bit to like with Hoskin-Elliott but also a few worries. It seems highly likely that he will go in the top 10 but personally if he fell to 15 I would understand why.


Pick 10 – GWS

Now we start to get into the needs picks and trying to second guess Brisbane at 12. If the Lions go small at 8 expect GWS to go tall at both 10 and 11 to second guess the Lions. Following on my tradition of picking at Div 2 guy in the top 10 each year I have gone with Schade this year who I really rate as a KPD prospect. I know he won’t go near here on the day so don’t even bother telling me. GWS do need some tall talent at the back and they must address it in this draft and I would expect two tall defenders to be taken by them although I really don’t rate any defender enough to take him here. Tomlinson would be a big chance here by the sounds of it if he has not already been taken.

Henry Schade
DOB 8/10/93 Ht 196 Wt 80

AFL recruiters regularly overlook the Tasmanians for some reason often allowing teams who actually pay attention to benefit. This year there are quite a few draftable prospects coming out of the Apple Isle so it might be a bit harder to hide them under a bushel especially the likes of Schade who is a quality defender who could easily be considered the best of a crop full of guys with major deficiencies. This guy made the All Australian team for a reason. He will undoubtedly go below lesser prospects from Victoria and WA and so a team could well get a bargain waiting on Henry.

He has a classic Dustin Fletcher style build being a bit on the thin side but with very good height at a legitimate 196 and long telescopic arms. As well as having great height he also tested in the top 10% in the running jump and this allows him to take even ruck sized forwards. Despite being a little underweight (although he has put on 10kgs this year) he has shown some really nice strength and he more than held his own in the wrestling contests at the Champs. He has been playing against men in the TSL this year and has acquitted himself well from what I have been able to ascertain. He is one of the younger key position prospects and has grown a couple of centimetres this year and is reportedly still growing. He already has more height than most of the other KPD prospects and when you combine that with good closing speed and excellent agility for a KP you can understand why some like me might like him over some more highly regarded guys who are measuring in at 191ish and might struggle to deal with some of the monster forwards coming into the AFL atm.

He is a left footer with no right foot that I have been able to see. Still with the left foot he is very proficient. He most often punches out nice little three quarter distance kicks which travel fairly flat with nice weight and feel on them. He has good penetration when he wants to get it there but he does tend to lose a little accuracy on the longer kicks. When he is rushed he can get a little under the ball but when he has time to balance he is a very nice kick coming out of defense. He can handball with either hand but again can get a little flustered under pressure. When he is under pressure he can miss targets by foot a bit too.

He is a balanced mover who evaluates his downfield options nicely coming out of defense. I would like to see him work to link up more going out of defense but I suppose when he gets his endurance up in a full time environment it should come. At the moment his endurance is probably his biggest Achilles heel with him testing in the bottom 20% at Combine. This is not unusual for KPD and I am sure that in a full time environment he will be brought up to speed over the next couple of years without too many dramas.

He certainly has the skills so that you would want the ball in his hands. Below the knees he is very clean and he watches the ball into his hands nicely. He judges the ball well in the air but is probably not a great mark (despite taking mark of the round in round 3 of the TSL). He is very disciplined however and will usually spoil if he is any doubt. He gets very good height on his spoils and is very difficult to outmark for forwards. Personally I like discipline already installed in my young defenders.

Overall I like his attitude at the back a lot. He is aggressive in his spoiling and tackling and he does the team things. He looks out for his teammates and is a team player. He can play some forward but is most comfortable down back and this is where I think he will end up playing his AFL football. His father is a former TSL premiership player.

Pick 11 - GWS

It’s starting to get to the speculative stage for GWS and having a couple of solid prospects already in place in Mohr and Davis I think they can afford to swing for the fences. Frost is a high risk high reward type. He has great physical gifts but needs to learn the game more. With this many high picks and the pieces I have in place I back myself in with a kid like Frost. Docherty and Adams I think could be in serious contention here especially if the Lions go tall at 8.

Sam Frost
DOB 28/8/93 Ht 194 Wt 84

Frost is another kid that you would pick based on his athletic gifts and he could seriously go just about anywhere in this draft. As a prospect he reminds me a bit of Jarrad Grant of the Bulldogs in that he would be seriously tantalizing for a recruiter who values potential and athletic gifts over performance.

Frost is from a volleyball and basketball background and does not have the football instincts quite down. With that said he also does not have the ingrained bad habits and he often thinks a little bit differently than some. He will try things that others won’t, especially guys his size. He has very nice height and a fantastic burst of speed. When he is green-lighted he really likes to take game on and his size, pace and agility really make him stand out. He is a little hit and miss as far as results go when he takes the game on but I really like the attitude he brings. He can play at both ends but I see him as a CHB at AFL level. I could see him being a bigger Harry O’Brien styled player. Like O’Brien he will occasionally get lost on defensive assignments, will get himself into trouble taking the game on and his kicking might not always be to the best target. Still a lot of positives will also flow from his work.

He has a big set of shoulders, long arms and pretty reasonable height. I see him filling out into a pretty powerful guy once he finishes developing. Combine that with his speed and agility and you have a nice physical prospect. Skills wise there does not seem to be a lot wrong technically but he does need to work on being more consistent with his disposals. He seems to have good spatial awareness about what is going on around him but at the moment he does not always take the best option. I think this might just be a matter of getting more high level games into him and see if he blossoms into a player worthy of his physical gifts. He was another who did not test at Combine.

Overall there is a lot to like in Frost and in a year where decent key positions are light on the ground he is one I think will be snapped up earlier than many think he should be. He is absolutely rough around the edges but the ceiling on his talent is very high and he is probably worth the risk in a down year without a lot of clearly superior alternatives.

Pick 12 - Brisbane

GWS overlooked Kersten last year when he was injury free and had a better year and now are stocked up on great KPF prospects. Accordingly I would be surprised if GWS took Kersten but I think he does represents really good value here for a team who is going to definitely need tall forward help in a year or two. Tomlinson seems to be the word here if not at 8. If they go tall at 8 Kersten may still be in the mix or alternatively Docherty or Adams might get a look in or Greene or Kavanagh if they fall.

Shane Kersten
DOB 15/3/93 Ht 191 Wt 91

Kersten is your classic old fashioned full forward very much in the mould of Fevola or for watchers of the NEAFL Darren Ewing. He has a brilliant set of hands and is far and away the best mark of anyone in this draft. He makes marking looking easy with superior judgment of the ball in the air and fantastic soft hands. He just plucks it out of the air and you wonder why the hell the other players aren’t doing the same thing. When the ball is on the ground he is equally good being very clean (top 10 in the clean hands test at the Combine this year) with an uncanny ability to know where the goals are and then put it through for a goal.

The big knock against him is his height. He comes in at just over 190cm which is short for a modern FF but is in fact pretty much exactly the same height as Fevola. His lack of height may cause him some issues but for me I take him every time over a guy 5 cm taller with no real idea around goal. The other issue for him this year has been that he missed 14 games (including all of the Champs) with a serious elbow injury. He returned at the end of the year and added some real spark to the South Fremantle colts team. He picked up 18 goals in the last 3 rounds of the home and away and managed a very nice haul of 5 in the colts GF. This is all whilst being on a seriously low fitness base on his return. Its worth noting that he played seniors for South Fremantle last year and acquitted himself very well. As a bottom aged player last year at the Champs he also managed 15 goals to lead the way if memory serves.

As mentioned he is carrying a bit of extra condition at the Combine and did not do any of the endurance testing. He always needed to improve his endurance to play to his potential at AFL level and the time out didn’t help him. He only managed 13.08 in the beep last year which gives you an indication that he is going to be in for a lot of pain for the first few years whilst he builds up his endurance. Last year though he did a very nice 2.88 in the 20m which is the kind of speed teams love their forwards to show and despite carrying extra kilos this year he was pretty close to that again in the 20m this year. Kersten definitely has the speed to get separation and he has the smarts to time it right and lead to dangerous spots. His repeat sprint time was also good last year in 24.39 and his agility was solid. He did the jump testing this year and was very impressive in the running jump. For me there is no question that he has the athleticism to play at AFL level. He is not much of a chaser atm and this is something which he will have to improve. If someone is close by he is a pretty reasonable tackler and he has the pace to shut them down quickly. He just needs to desire and fitness to do it more often.

Kersten is an excellent shot for goal having a balanced approach and a big leg on him. He is dangerous from outside 50 and is a dead-eye dick from tight angles. Given how good his goal kicking is you would expect his field kicking to be better but I get the impression he has not worked on it that much and he often tends to be lazy with his passes. Again this is something which I think will clean up okay with a little work in a full time environment.

Overall there are a few areas which he needs to improve on but the kid has the makings of a gun full forward. He has had things a bit easy at junior level and needs a work ethic drummed into him but the words coming from his coach seem to be okay. Its hard from the outside to determine how much of an issue the work ethic concerns are but there have been a few rumours around for a while. On the park though Kersten is one of those guys who when you see him play just seems to have that little bit more time than those around him. He reads the play better and gets to spots to influence play without really seeming to make any particular effort. He is a major talent imho and if he works at his game he could be one of the better FFs going around.

Pick 13 – GWS

Every team nowerdays needs good dash and users in the backline and GWS have a bit of a need in this area. Personally I rate Docherty ahead of Buntine in these areas and whilst he is not as good defensively you have to weigh how you are going to use the player you pick. GWS need running and kicking and I rate Docherty higher in these areas. I think he is every chance to go here on draft day if the Lions don’t take him at 12.

Sam Docherty
DOB 17/10/93 Ht 185 Wt 83

Initially I was surprised when EQ was talking about Docherty being one of the top 15 guys in this draft but as I went back and looked at him some more I came to appreciate that she might well be correct. Docherty’s game seems ideal for modern AFL systems and he would be very valuable piece at half back for a new young team. He was only selected for the last two games at the Champs for Vic Country and he made people sit up and take notice with a BOG performance against WA. After a pretty ordinary start to the year Docherty was a very strong performer all the way home until a hip injury tailed him off. The hip injury prevented him testing at the Combine which is a shame as I would have liked to have seen what numbers he would put up.

Docherty is an offensive HBFer. He has excellent run and carry skills and can either run through zones or kick over them. Going forward he is very heads up and will usually look to go long down the field sometimes to the exclusion of better intermediate options. Still he has the skill to exercise these long kicks well and he hits his targets. He is a right footer but has nice penetration and accuracy off either foot. He might be the best kick off his non-preferred of anyone in this draft. His kicking holds together under pressure and he has great ability to find the target with players closing him down quickly. He is a regularly taker of kick-ins because of his ability to find the target.

Defensively his strength is not in a close checking role and in fact I would say he is not very good in that role and would certainly be taken advantage of at AFL level were he to be asked to play such. He is much better in a loose read and react role which allows him to lay off and attack any ball coming into his area. He reads the ball coming in well and makes good, quick decisions about how to influence the play. He knows when to attack the ball himself, when to clear the way for his own man or when to find a player. He is a team player at the back and works well with those around him.

If the ball finds its way to an opposition player Docherty has good closing speed and works hard to shut down the threat. He is not a big tackler and some work will need to be done on his technique. Another thing he will need to work on is his engine and I am sure the AFL small forwards will work him up and back a lot to take the sting out of his attack. He has the body shape of an endurance athlete but he does not have the engine atm and there will be plenty of hard work ahead for him. He is also not particularly strong overhead but he does get up reasonably well and although he doesn’t often clunk them he does control the ball to ground well and follows quickly.

He has nice clean hands with the ball on the ground and is an exponent of the long hand ball which you don’t often see at junior level. With the ball in hand he shows really good dash and he will back himself to beat players coming out of defense. He moves through contested situations nicely often seemingly to just slide through.

Overall I would rate Docherty as the best HBF option available this year ahead of Buntine. He has superior pace and long kicking ability and is his equal in most other respects. He is probably giving a bit away to Buntine defensively but I think he will make that up with some more experience. I think he is a nice prospect who should become a good AFL player.

Pick 14 – GWS

Will Sheeds and Choco go with Manson at 14? It would be a gutsy move but one I can definitely see those guys doing. It would give them lots of publicity and Manson probably does have the talent to justify the selection. As it is I have gone with Paine who I do not personally rate particularly highly but I do think he would fit in well with GWS needs. He is a hard working tall that can play at both ends. His ceiling might not be particularly high but he will die trying.

Jackson Paine
DOB 21/6/93 Ht 191 Wt 92

In all honesty I am not particularly high on Paine but this year there are not too many KPs you would take ahead of him. When I was breaking down his skill set I was thinking that he should make a better KPD than a KPF except for one glaring problem – I don’t think he is very good at actually defending anyone. Still it looks like he is prepared to work and with that being the case there is a fair chance that he could learn to be a good utility that a team could throw in at either end and rely on him to give an honest contest.

Unlike a lot of KPFs at under age level Paine actually recognises that he needs to work both ways and he works defensively very well. He chases hard and often and will work not just inside the 50 but up onto the wing as well if necessary. His chase is excellent for a big guy much like Darling’s was this year when he came into the West Coast team. The opposition can often switch off to the danger he presents in this situation and he gets his share of tackles and frees because of the effort he gives. When the ball is coming in and he is unable to get to it he will do the disciplined thing and spoil or tackle and not give away the free. His spoiling is very good no matter where on the ground he is playing.

As a forward he is a strong leader although perhaps not as often as you would like. He can bust packs with the best of them but again I would probably like to see him do it more often. Playing with Patton he often ceded the lead to Patton and waited back in the square to wrestle with his defender. Up forward when he got into the shows of strength contests he often came out ahead and took more than a few nice marks at the Champs in those types of contests. In those situations he controls the man and the drop zone very well. Generally he is pretty good but not great overhead. At the Champs I did wonder a few times why he was waiting down at contests especially when he left it to the likes of the twiglet, Crozier to make the contest.

With the ball on the ground he again can throw his body around and his second efforts are great. He does not have the best turning circle but he does pretty well keeping the ball or opposition in front of himself. He is a reasonable set shot for goal provided nothing out of the ordinary is expected. His range does not extend to 50 and he has no confidence in his banana or similar exotic shots for goals.

It’s really odd how much of a different player he is down back. When he is in defense he really is poor in body on body contests and he was given a lesson by the significantly smaller O’Hanlon at the Champs on at least a couple of occasions. He also seems to get lost a fair bit trying to chase his man and gets beaten by players who look like they want the ball more than him. Whilst he is trying to find his guy, his guy is going and getting the ball. Up forward he looks like he had pretty good closing speed but he seems to have trouble evidencing this down back and shutting down his player.

He has reasonable skills for a big guy and at TAC level he played some time through the middle. He generally has good awareness of where everyone is around him and can get the ball to the right player. It might not always be pretty but it usually gets there. He does have a bit of a bad habit of leaving his feet when scrambling for the ball and he is not the quickest to regain his feet. If the ball goes astray he is liable to be punished. His around the ground skills by both hand and foot are up there with the best of the key positions in this draft.

I think Paine is likely to start his career as a forward but, like this year, probably not as a primary target. As he develops I think his skill set may be better suited down back if he can overcome some of the defensive lapses that seem to plague him at the moment. I really like his hard working attitude and think that will be an asset for the team that picks him. He may not be the most gifted player on the park but I think he will be a valuable team contributor and the type of player who helps teams to win.


Pick 15 – Richmond

Yes Richmond have a lot of HBFers but Buntine is not necessarily just a HBFer and if he was here they would take him. He is capable of playing through the midfield and if he were down back he would help the defensive aspects of the back 6 a great deal. Defensively he would be a lot better than some they currently have there. Chances are slim of him being here on the day but you never know who might fall. Kavanagh is a realistic chance but they could equally reach for someone like Markworth who is getting a lot of love.

Matthew Buntine
DOB 19/10/93 Ht 189 Wt 84

I have Buntine lower than most because to tell you the truth he did not do a hell of a lot for me at the Champs and I think people overrate his chances of being an influential player at the next level. That’s not to say he is a bad player or won’t develop into a good player but merely if you gave me a choice there are quite a few guys I would take ahead of him and back them to be better players in the long run. You don’t get many specialist small defenders being taken highly in the draft and even when they are it can be pretty hit and miss. A player he reminds me a lot of as a junior is David Myers who was taken pick 6 in the 2007 draft by Essendon. At the same age I would think them both very similar in height, athleticism, skill and game style. Myers hasn’t worked out as well as Bombers fans would have hoped and there is a similar danger with Buntine I think. I acknowledge though that Buntine has shown more midfield ability than Myers had done at a similar stage.

Buntine started the year with stress fractures in his legs (aka shin splints) which threw his whole year out. He played at the Champs but was largely underwhelming imho but continued to improve and finished the year strongly in the TAC. Regular TAC watchers are almost universally high on him particularly those that got to see him work through the midfield. Personally I have a few concerns that his relatively poor showing in the Champs was not a function of his not being fully recovered from injury but rather him struggling with the step up in level and the increase in pace at Champs level. If he had trouble in that situation he is going to have lots of difficulties with the pace of AFL players especially with forward presses all the vogue. He is not particularly clean with his hands and is a regular two bite sort and if he does that under pressure AFL small forwards are going to eat him up.

I do like the hussle he shows though. He judges the ball well coming in and is not often beaten. In the air he is only average but when the ball hits the ground he is very tenacious with his chasing and pressuring. As mentioned he is not particularly clean but he does well to keep the ball in his area and work hard at getting it going the right way or stopping the opposition if they get it. He has good core strength and should be fine in this area as he develops a little bit. He has shown the ability to match up on talls or smalls and he will be a bit of a utility at AFL level. He works hard in contests and does clear his arms well to get away the handball. For an underage backman he is quite good around ruck situations.

He has a name as a good rebounder of the ball at TAC level but this was not evident at the Champs. In fact I can’t recall many occasions when he got the ball and ran from defense. If he got the ball in defense he usually got rid of it pretty quickly rather than tucking it under his arm and taking the game on. He is comfortable working up on the wing and when up there he can deliver it nicely into his forward line. I have some queries about his option taking but I have to say that usually when I questioned the option he took he still managed to get the ball where it needed to go without damage being done e.g. kicking it across goal. His skills generally are solid. I have some comments about him making a nice flat kick and others about him floating it a bit. I would expect that he can flatten out his kick pretty well as he develops physically and the issue is concentrated on in a full time environment.

I have been pretty harsh on him in my review but that was more to justify dropping him a bit. I have not seen him playing much through the midfield which is where he stood out for many but I am not sure he has the skills to excel through the midfield at the next level. At the back I think he should develop into a pretty good flanker. He is very good defensively with good strength, judgment and closing speed and he has shown some very nice rebounding ability at TAC level. He carried an injury into the Combine and did not test for endurance or agility but managed a nice 2.98 in the 20m sprint. There are some queries that I have but there is also quite a bit to like.


Pick 16 – Fremantle

I see this as the absolute floor for Adams and if he was here Freo would be rubbing their hands together with delight. They can definitely use some inside help despite many perceiving them as having a stacked midfield. This is a team that used Pavlich in the midfield extensively over the last couple of years to help win the clearances. Adams would be a big help in this regard. If I had to pick a most likely selection at 16 it would be Kersten. Freo need some succession planning up forward and Kersten could be a key piece if they took him.

Taylor Adams
DOB 20/9/93 Ht 179 Wt 80

Adams is one guy who would have been at the top of everyone’s watch list coming into this year after doing very well at TAC level last year and averaging 17 disposals a game for Country at the Champs last year. This year he was the number one tag target for Country but still managed to do okay averaging 18.8 disposals per game and making the All Australian team. He also had a very good TAC Cup this year averaging 28 disposals per game 10 of which were contested.

Adams is an inside midfielder with reasonable but not great outside skills. He is a guy who will be at the bottom of packs and will be sweating on his opponent if he gets the ball. He is strong over the ball with good strength through the hips. He is not tall but is fairly solid and I think he will develop into a fairly powerful guy. He has reasonable upper body size but I do think his upper body strength could be better. So strength wise I think his lower body is good but upper body needs some work despite having good size.

In the contest he has really nice quick hands but he can miss his handballs a little too often when under pressure. He gets his boot to ball quickly when he needs to and is a good judge of when he needs to get the ball out quickly and when he can afford to take a little more time. At the Champs he seemed to be always in the grasp of someone when he got the ball which has a bit to do with being tagged but it was also a function of him not clearing out well enough either.

I do like very much how he reads the ball off hands and think if he worked with a top shelf ruckman he could really excel. He is often a step ahead of those around him from his early read and if his ruck could feed him clean ball then his team is going to get first use of it more often than not. He has pretty good one touch skills and has really nice awareness of where other players are around him. This is a common thing for elite basketball players like Adams was. He represented Australia at U16 level.

His field kicking is pretty solid and his technique seems fine. It’s unlikely that he will tear a game apart with his pin point kicking but I don’t think he is going to be prone to crucial turnovers either. He usually reads the play pretty well and he will hit the targets he aims at although work will need to be done to add a little velocity to his kicking. He is a heads up kind of player and knows what is happening and what should happen. I did notice a couple of times at the Champs he made smart plays where he put balls where a player should be rather than where they were. I think this was just his football IQ being a bit higher than his teammates. It should happen a lot less at AFL level where his teammates will be of a higher level.

There were some concerns about his athleticism but he should have put those to rest with a nice display at the Combine. He was thought to lack a little in the pace and engine department but he was clocked just over 3 and at 15.1 in the beep (equal 10th overall). Those results should calm a few nerves and do demonstrate how hard he has worked to address perceived issues in his game. On the park he plays with a nice burst of pace and he gets to every contest. He can occasionally be run down but it doesn’t happen often enough to really concern me. I do think he needs to continue to work on his gut running so he can build his outside game and pick up more easy possessions.

I did read somewhere that Adams had some OP this year but I have not been able to find anything official to confirm that. I note he did test at Combine and test well so maybe that rumour was false. If true it could drop him down the order a little more, although probably not too much. I couldn’t see him going past Essendon.

He was the capt of the Geelong Falcons in the TAC and is highly thought of within the club. It has also been suggested that he was one of the best interviews at the Combine which is often overlooked by people like me who have little ability to know the personality of players. Overall I think Adams is a very nice prospect around this stage of the draft for a team in need of a ball winner. He is not a spectacular player but quietly goes about winning ball and giving his team first use.


Pick 17 – Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have ball winners in the next wave of youngsters but could use some good users of the ball. That is McKenzie’s strength and one of the reasons I could see him going to the Bulldogs. Devon Smith not without a chance here although I think they might be reluctant given his lack of height.

Brad McKenzie
DOB 29/5/93 Ht 188 Wt 76

MacKenzie really established himself as a prospect in the carnival after being a late inclusion in the SA team. He was a very important player for SA across the Champs and he should see himself get drafted off the back of the good work. He is not a big possession winner averaging only 16.4 per game at the Champs but he has definite hurt factor and he gets few cheap possessions. In fact one of the areas he really needs to work on is getting more uncontested ball. When you are as good as he is with the ball the team is best served getting the ball to you and you need to get yourself open. At the moment he tends to float around with other players too much and does not bust he gut to get into space. He tested very poorly for endurance at the champs and his lack of easy possessions might be a function of his poor engine rather than anything else.

He played a lot through the middle at the Champs but I quite like the idea of him being behind the ball at the next level. He has really nice height for a small medium and he plays taller than he is with excellent marking ability. He is courageous and floats into contests really nicely to cut out opposition ball. Once he gets it he uses it well and can cut apart a zone. I could easily see him playing the same kind of role as Heppell did for Essendon this year.

He has a reputation as an elite kick but I think that is overstating it a little. He is a good kick but most of his kicks tend to be chips rather than bullets or long raking kicks. He picks out good targets and the chips get where they are supposed to go but I don’t think at the moment I would say his kicking is elite. He can kick goals from outside 50 so he has range on his kicking but he rarely uses this length in his field kicking. He maybe needs to incorporate more long kicks into his game. He plays with his head up and is very aware of where everyone is around him so I think there should be scope for him to improve in this area.

He plays a lot onball and is pretty good in tight and can certainly win the ball when it is his turn. He is not an elite clearance player but he does okay and has quick hands when the ball comes to him. He is composes in tight situations and seems to have a good football brain on him. He has pretty good strength in the contest and can be fairly elusive despite lacking break away speed. He finished 7th in the agility test at the Combine with a score of 8.12.

Athletically he is only average having middle of the pack speed and jumping ability and as mentioned above poor endurance. He has a long and lanky physique with long arms but a build likely to fill out reasonably well in time. Overall he looks like a good footballer who is not going to wow supporters with physical or possession stats but he could make a significant impact with the hurt factor on the possessions many of which come from contests. I think as he improves his endurance he will be able to make significant more impact on games and collect more uncontested ball. There is a lot of potential upside with McKenzie but whoever takes him is going to need to be patient.


Pick 18 – North Melbourne

It’s a bit high for Newman but I think he fits the needs of North very well. He can start up forward as a very dangerous and good defensive small forward before starting to play Harvey’s role when he retires. He brings pace and flair to a team in need of both. Markworth probably a good chance here in the real thing.

Murray Newman
DOB 18/11/93 Ht 179 Wt 70

Newman is a player I think could go higher than many expect. He is a very slight indigenous player with the flair that has become a cliché with aboriginal guys but he also has a competitive hard edge to his game. He played a lot of time onball for WA at the Champs and did pretty nicely averaging 20 disposals per game.

He also plays a fair bit of time up forward and I can see him starting his AFL career as a HFFer who will work up onto the wings and win his own ball when needed. I am thinking he may start as a carbon copy of Garlett at Carlton but develop into a player more like Nahas of Richmond was this year. I doubt he is ever likely to have the body size to be a full time inside mid like he played a lot as a junior but I would expect him to take his turn at times when he has a little bit more meat on his bones.

As mentioned Newman is capable of winning his own ball but is most dangerous when he is out in space. Once he gets wound up he has a nice long stride and very good pace. He covers the ground well and he can execute at pace without losing control of the ball with bounces or accuracy with his kicking. He has elite lateral movement and is very elusive with his jinks and ability to stop and go at the drop of a hat. He does tend to leave his feet quite a bit but this is most often done on purpose and he is up again and off in a flash. He shows good balance throughout his game including being able to maintain balance in the tackle which you would not expect given his size. With the ball in hand he is a heads up player who evaluates well what is in front of him and usually takes good options. He links up exceptionally well and has high hurt factor with his disposals when he runs and carries.

Whilst he is capable of stabbing the ball in flat and hard he most often tends to drop kicks into his target’s lap using weight and feel on his kicks. I think he will need to flatten his kicks a bit at AFL level but at the moment he is a good kick for the competition level he has faced and I am confident that he can adjust to AFL requirements in this regard. He does not have a lot of penetration on his kicks. He will also need to work on adding some zip to his handballs as at the moment they tend to float too much and not be greatly accurate.

He does lack a few of the traits of an elite small forward but I think with time playing there he could well gain them given he has not really played as a full time forward to date. Around goal he is a good finisher with nice goal sense. He is not a great crumber but he is better than most would expect overhead being capable of taking a nice mark. He also excels at finding space and defenders will have to be honest with him or he will punish them. He has a relaxed set shot which seems pretty loose with a few moving parts in the action but generally manages to find its way though the big sticks.

He will chase and bring off a couple of tackles each game but his defensive work will need to improve to get games at AFL level. He has good closing speed and can wrap up the ball carrier reasonably well but he needs to do this more consistently and use the speed he has. The consistently issue in this regard could be a function of his endurance which although it’s about average for U18 level will need to upped for the AFL. By the sound of it though the kid is prepared to work and will do what is needed to succeed. There are quite a few small fwd/mids starting to impact the AFL with its new structures and Newman has the tools to be a very good one.

Pick 19 - Essendon

Essendon need some inside help and Grigg can give them that together with an elite kick. There are some questions about his attitude but anyone who saw him at the Champs has to concede that there is talent there. At some stage a team is going to back themselves in and Grigg could pay off handsomely for that team. Essendon have invested a lot in their coaching staff and I would be picking the talent and letting them worry about getting the most out of him.

Mitchell Grigg
DOB 2/1/93 Ht 181 Wt 85

Grigg is one guy who really separated himself from the pack at the Champs. Coming in he was not on many people’s radar as a high selection but for me he was close to the best player out there. He averaged 24.4 disposals for SA winning a lot of contested ball through the middle of the ground, being really damaging by foot and kicking goals regularly. All this has contrasted pretty sharply with his club form for Norwood.

For Norwood he has not been given many chances and when he has he has not impressed. He has not seemed to work hard enough and has not done the team things that the coaching staff wanted of him. I think his performances reflect pretty poorly on the Norwood coaching staff as he demonstrated that he was clearly capable of playing at a high level but they were simply unable or unwilling to get that out of him. Grigg will be the one to pay the price but I would suggest other SA talent should maybe reflect on whether Norwood best served their talented junior in this instance and whether Norwood is the right place for them. The comments of their talent manager in talking down Grigg also reflect poorly on the professionalism of the organization.

The other big question mark in regards to Grigg is his pace. When you see him play he accelerates well for the first 5m and you wonder what the problem is and then you realise that he is already at full pace. He is definitely not quick in the legs but he is pretty quick between the ears which I take every time if I have to choose. The kid is a footballer with big hurt factor and might be the best kick of the ball in this draft. At the Champs he played mostly as an inside mid who rests up forward but I think he could well end up as a back in the modern game. The player who he reminds me of a lot at this stage in their careers is Hurn from WC. Both were solid guys as juniors who played a lot inside but there are some queries which could result in careers as a BP/HBF. Hurn was a top ten pick to most but he dropped a bit in the draft and was taken at 13. I could see something similar happening with Grigg although the club issues could see him fall further.

Grigg is a left footer with very good penetration and excellent feel on his kicks kicking over distance. He may come in a bit behind Rich for penetration but not by much and the weighting on his kicks is very similar. His mind works quickly and when he is given any time at all he reads the situation very well and will take the right option. He gets the ball to his foot quickly and even in contested situations uses it well with hurt. He had a 69% efficiency rating at the Champs which was excellent for an inside mid. In the clearance situation he is pretty good although I wouldn’t say his hands are super quick. He is effective usually but he can be flustered on occasions when he is sweated on and this is another similarity for me with Hurn. I have a few concerns about how he will adapt to the increased pace of AFL football as an inside mid and this is backed up by his form for Norwood. With that said I have very few of those concerns though if he is played behind the ball as all he needs is that fraction more time and then he is very dangerous.

At under 18 level he showed pretty good elusiveness in tight situations and has really good core strength. He holds his feet well and has nice balance over the ball and in the grasp of a tackle. Expect him to be tackled a lot next year as he adjusts to the increased strength and pace of the AFL level footballers and him not being able to break the arm tackles he got a bit at junior level. He is a pretty willing tackler himself although he is not the big hitter you might expect from a more mature bodied player. He can tend to arm tackle a bit but I have to admit that he was rarely brushed off at junior level. He gets in there and mixes it up well in the clinches though and I am sure with a little bit of work on his technique he could be a very good tackler at senior level.

Below the knees he has nice clean hands. Above his head he is probably only average. He will get his fair share of marks but mostly these will be uncontested and derived from workrate. He is the kind of player who just keeps moving and gets to good spots especially up forward despite not being able to burn off an opponent. He gets a lot of his goals from crumbing and he reads the ball very well off the marking contest, has really good goal awareness and will get the ball to his foot quickly to finish. His set shot for goal is good technically and he has a comfortable balanced approach to his shot. He can get a big of a swagger on the approach when looking for distance but overall I think he would be considered a very nice kick.

Grigg tested very well for endurance at the Combine coming in at an elite 15 in the beep. This was a bit of a surprise for me as I had thought this was an area he would need to work more on. He does not do much work defensively and can be a bit of a walker without the ball and that is not going to cut it at AFL level. The kid is a footballer though and personally I really like him and what he could offer a team. I think whichever team picks him will get themselves a weapon and probably at a cheap price.

The reputation gained from Norwood that he is not coachable and not prepared to work both ways is going to hurt him. I would have interviewed him extensively if I was a team to get to the bottom of the issues he had as there was such a contrast in his form. You don’t run a 15 beep if you are lazy and there may be more going on than is apparent.


Pick 20 - Fremantle

Freo will very likely take a KP with one of their first two picks. KPF is probably their biggest need and Manson and Dobosz would be some chance here as probably would Paine. In defence things might be less urgent with the likely acquisition of Dawson but he is hardly a top shelf talent. I have them taking Tomlinson here with it being the highest I could justify him going based on what I have actually seen of him. I don’t really rate him although I concede he will go higher on the day. Freo would probably be very happy to get him.

Adam Tomlinson
DOB 10/8/93 Ht 192.5 Wt 88

First up an admission – I have not seen any of his last 6 games of the year. Accordingly to reports from those games he got his act together and showed enormous potential. There are a lot of very strong indications including from Emma Quayle that he is likely to go in the top 10 and as a consequence I have bumped him up from the mid 40s where I had him but in good conscience I just can’t go higher than this from what I saw in the Champs.

At the Champs Tomlinson was all over the place. He played quite a bit up forward, sometimes down back and was regularly just running around in the midfield. I see him as a KPD at AFL level but I think he is still very rough around the edges and a lot of work needs to be done. He played a fair of midfield at TAC level and looked very comfortable there and when recruiters see that they often get all gushy notwithstanding that a player might not look particularly good at key positions where he is going to play at the next level.

I had thought he had grown this year into a very nice KP size but it turned out it’s just his PR team that has grown. He measured in at 192.5 at the champs which is materially different in KP terms to the 194 he was listed at. If he was a big leaper then I might be fine with the measure but in game situations he rarely leaves the ground and he pretty much exclusively uses his height to mark the ball. When that height comes in as shorter than expected and his arms measure short for a big guy then I think he could struggle against the bigger AFL talent and for mine he had trouble at the Champs for this reason. Marking wise he did well against TAC opposition and in fairness he did pick up a fair few marks at the Champs. On the other side though he also spilled a few and was outmarked or spoiled fairly regularly. He usually holds his feet pretty well in a contested marking situation and is often strong but I noticed that against smarter forwards he was often outmuscled. I noticed O’Brien in particular got rid of him fairly easily a few times in the Vic Country game. On the wing he seems much more solid under the ball for some reason.

Notwithstanding his measuring issues he did have some good results at the Combine and finished 7th in the 3km and 10th in the beep going 15.1 which is great for a big guy. His sprint results were a mixed bag and I don’t really know how to read them. He went under 3 for the 20m which is good but his repeat sprint time was in the bottom quarter of those tested. In the 20m he seemed to accelerate well over the 20m and with his endurance results I expected him to have a really good 30m repeat sprint time. So I am not sure what is happening there. On the park his agility also seems good but he tested poorly there as well being in the bottom 16% of those tested.

He doesn’t have great hands above his head and that is one reason I see him better down back where he can spoil the ball. As a forward he also tends to only give half hearted leads and does not get the separation he should given his athleticism. Another reason I don’t see him as a forward is that he is a pretty poor shot at goal. His drop can be a bit errant and he is prone to missing goals he should get. His field kicking can also be pretty inconsistent but in fairness to him it could be just him using his non-preferred when I was making this observation. For a long while I thought he was a left footer but it turns out he is actually a right footer who happens to use his left foot pretty much as often as he does his right. For a right footer he is very good on his left and would probably be one of the better dual footed key positions around.

Personally I think he seems prone to lapses of concentration. Dropping easy marks, being outmuscled by smaller opponents, failing to control his drop and missing easy shots on goals are often mental rather than physical errors. Down back where he is lead to the ball and is given a job I think he is better. He is a very nice physical specimen and he seems to have the athletic gifts to succeed if he can get the mental aspects of the game right. He is a capable tackler if the man comes into his area but he is not a big chaser at the moment. With his endurance though he could potentially become that.

If Tomlinson was great at either end and displayed the midfield ability he has I would be on that bandwagon along with everyone else. As it is though he is an average at best key position with excellent midfield skills for a big guy. Those midfield skills are not going to stop an AFL player kicking a heap of goals on you though and that is my problem with him at the moment.

Pick 21 – Sydney

Father / son selection who is a good fit for Sydney’s style of play and their home ground of the SCG.

Tom Mitchell
DOB 31/5/93 Ht 180 Wt 79

Mitchell is on his way to Sydney as a father/son selection and is good value at 21. I have heard some suggesting that he would have gone top 5 but that is laying it on a bit thick for mine. Given Sheedy was after him I am comfortable that he would have gone top 15 if available and its possible GWS could have taken in the top 10.

Mitchell is a predominantly inside player who will work his butt off for his team. I would not say he is the most athletically gifted player in this year’s draft but he might well be the best gut runner and a guy who gets the absolute most out of his talent. He is strong and uncompromising in the contest and will burrow in and come out with the ball. He has a fair burst of pace when needed.

Skills wise is where I have some concerns. In space he has pretty good awareness of his short to intermediate targets and he will look to hit these targets with a handball most of the time. He would be the best exponent of the long handball in this draft and when he has time he can rifle out a handball that will hit its target 20 metres away. It is a weapon without doubt. By foot he has really nice penetration and there is nothing to complain about with his style. He is however entirely too indiscriminate and his kicks are on a best case most likely to be to a contest rather than picking out his man. On a worst case they will either go a mile in the air or to the opposition. By foot his modus operandi is to kick it long and hope. I noticed in the SA game he was pretty much directly in front of goal and went for a banana. This was a hugely strange choice but this type of thing happens a bit with Mitchell who I don’t think has a huge amount of confidence in his kicking.

In the contest he is very strong over the ball and has good quick hands but again he is not discerning enough with his targets. He takes the first option every time and too often this is not the best option and the recipient is tackled as soon as he gets the ball. Mitchell is not one of those players who seems to have time in the contest. He is great at winning the ball but seems always to be rushed and under pressure. He has a reasonable side step and combined with his strength he can often clear the contest and when he does he is much better with him being able to clear his hands and assess his options better.

On the outside he links up well and shows good run and carry. He can break and avoid tackles pretty well. He is not much of an overhead threat and for a guy who is around the ball as much as him and is as strong as he is I would expect more tackles.

Still if you were him and had to pick a ground to play on that would really suit you you would pick the SCG. Sydney have gotten themselves a ball magnet who needs a bit of polish but he is in a situation which gives him the best opportunity to succeed.

Pick 22 – Carlton

Carlton really need a lead up forward and I think I just give them the best one available. Dobosz has a lot of talent and his ceiling is very high. Carlton loaded up on KPs last year but there is no reason why they couldn’t use another one as insurance if nothing else for Mitchell. I know Carlton already have a very tall team but they have few genuine FF prospects like Dobosz presents as. For a long time I had them going with Devon Smith who is another I think is a reasonable chance to be on his way to Carlton.


Julian Dobosz
DOB 17/11/92 Ht 191 Wt 82

I am not sure why Dobosz is not getting more attention to tell you the truth especially when he seems to specialise in going to town on the Victorians. Prior to the Champs he had two TAC games for Tasmania against Sandringham and Oakleigh and managed to come away with 6 goals in each of those games. He then followed it up with 7 goals against Vic Country in the Champs. In the Sandringham match he also managed a very nice 26 possessions and 10 marks. I guess maybe the Victorians out there are closing their eyes and pretending he is not there. For the Champs he finished with 15 goals from 4 games and in senior company in the TSL he is averaging a couple of goals a game. He has been a goal kicker at every level this year and against well credentialed opposition.

He and Kersten are probably the best judges of the ball in the air amongst the draftees this year and Dobosz has the great ability to arrive at the ball at just the right time. He stretches well and is a good mark with clean hands above his head and below his knees. He is a right footer and is a good shot for goal and has really nice goal sense. He tends to wind up a bit on his set shots but he does maintain pretty good balance in his kicking and he does put them through which is the main thing. I just look at him as a very smart forward. He leads to good spots, works his man up the field and then beats him back, knows when to play on quickly and generally just does all of the little things that you often see of the really top forwards.

He is a reasonable size at the moment and I think he will develop into a true power full forward. He was listed at 193 but measured in just over 190 and this might hurt his chances a bit. He is good in the wrestle already against guys his size and he uses his hands very well to push off at just the right time to free himself up to mark the ball. If the ball spills he recovers quickly and snaps well and he also has good soccer skills with the ball on the ground. He is a forward that defenders need to watch after he marks the ball as he does not go to sleep like many do. He keeps aware and makes excellent decisions when to play on, pass off or go back for the shot. He has good awareness of what is going on around him.

He probably needs to work on his engine more and the defensive aspects of his game but that is hardly surprising for a key position forward at this level. He will pull off his fair share of tackles and he shows pretty good technique but he probably needs to be a little more conscious of his ability to influence the game in this regard.

Up until this year Dobosz has prioritised cricket over AFL and he has never done a preseason concentrating instead on his cricket. As a consequence he is a fair way behind his contemporaries physically and this showed up at the Combine. He has never put significant time into building his speed or endurance over the offseason and he tested poorly at the Combine as a result. His endurance although relatively poor is probably not going to hurt him but his speed and agility results might do. In this case though I think teams need to look at how he plays on the park and figure that he has a lot of physical development in him once he gets into any kind of full time environment.

Overall, apart from Patton, I think he has played better than any other key forward in this draft. This is all the more impressive when you consider that he has really only been playing the game seriously for a couple of years and has not ever done any preseason work. I could easily see him falling in the draft based on physical concerns but this kid kicks goals and has enormous upside in him. He could be this draft’s version of Panos from a couple of years ago who tested similarly but I think he a much better footballer than Panos.


Pick 23 – West Coast

Someone is going to take a punt on Manson and I think WC could be the one to go all in. He could be a fantastic third option type playing beside Kennedy, Darling and NN. This is a selection that could give WC one of the best forward lines in football but it comes at massive risk. WC however can afford to take the chance on getting nothing out of this pick if Manson packs up his toys and goes home.

Waylen Manson
DOB 24/4/93 Ht 191.4 Wt 77

Manson is the late, come from nowhere guy, who is not just getting attention from the BF tragics but also from the wider football community, the media and the teams. He is certain to be taken by someone but where he gets taken is one of the big question marks of this draft. It’s entirely possible that he could get picked up by GWS at 14 given his talent level and its also possible that he could fall into the third round somewhere given the go home risk and other question marks around him.

Manson is a very athletic indigenous full forward who has strung together and amazing run of goal scoring form whilst everyone else has put the cue in the rack and is waiting for draft day. One of the West Australian teams seemed to be doing their best to keep him hidden sneaking him in for a couple of Colts games at the end of the year but unfortunately he has refused to remain hidden and now they are going to need to use a high pick on him rather than being able to get him as a rookie. He played two Colts games for a 12 goal return and then one ressies game for 2 goals and the rest of the competition went "what the hell is happening here I think we will have a look at you at Combine son" and a late invite to Combine was extended to him.

Unlike most of the guys who go to Combine Manson had never done any training for those types of testing and you would be surprised how much of a difference that makes. Anyway he protected himself pretty well by only doing the sprints and jumping and staying away from the endurance testing which is his big weakness. He demonstrated his big leap with a 7th place overall in the running jump and he managed to go under 3 for the 20m which was very good having done no preparation for that. The biggest issue for Manson was not the testing but the tape measure. Going into Combine he was listed at 195cm tall but he measured in at only 191.4 which took him from having very nice height to only having marginal KP height. From watching him I must say I was surprised with the measure. He looks and plays taller than he measured.

After Combine he made a great decision to go up and play in the NT competition for Waratahs. He started in the ressies in week one and after 10 goals he was unsurprisingly promoted straight to the firsts. In the 5 games in total he has played in the NT he has kicked 42 goals including another swag of 10 goals when he was playing along side Fevola. The kid has been phenomenal with his goal kicking and has put his name up in lights and everyone who has seen him in person is coming away raving about his talent level.

Manson has a build a lot like Jurrah at the moment with very thin arms and legs. He is never going to be a big man but I do think he has a frame that will support a fair bit more weight. Manson at the moment plays very close to goal and seems very lacking in any kind of tank that would allow him to play further up the ground. He is going to be in for a lot of pain in order to get his fitness levels up to AFL level and he has already been identified as a major flight risk. He has never done any significant training at even state league level and I am not sure he really knows what he is in for and questions remain whether he has the hunger to do the work. Since initial reports that he was only going to go to WA he has come out and said that he wants to play and will go anywhere but a significant risk remains.

Where Manson has enormous talent is in the marking contest. He is a very smart lead able to get in front and get separation with ease with speed or deception. He leads to good spots and is very difficult to spoil. He jumps early for the ball and takes the ball at its highest point. Although he measured a little short, his arms were the third longest measured and when that is combined with his jump you should take it as a given he takes it a fair way up in the air where not many can get to it. His stretch marking is superb and often you would swear the ball is going to go over him only for him to stretch just that little bit further and take the ball. His hands at full extension are fantastic. The other thing which separates him from others in the draft is his ability to make adjustments in the air. People always say how well he reads the ball but I am not sure it is so great. Good certainly but the ability to adjust in the air to go a little higher or reach to the side makes even a slightly off read look like brilliance.

His kicking for goal is a bit erratic to say the least. He is entirely too casual very often and he can sometimes miss shots that there is no way in hell he should miss and if he took just a little bit of care he wouldn't. On the other side of the coin he can regularly make the ridiculously difficult shots look very simple. When he gets into the AFL level his coach is going to need to walk the fine line of trying to instil some discipline into his play without stifling his creativity. With his set shots this is going to sound a little contradictory but he has both an easy and slightly disjunctive style. He is a pretty reasonable shot for goal however and he has good length on his shots. His field kicking is a bit like his kicking for goal in that he is a bit lazy and erratic with it but functionally it is fine.

He will definitely need to improve his defensive work to get games in the AFL. I am sure he can tackle but you would never know it because he just doesn't work enough to put himself into a position to make any. When the ball is gathered by the defence it's Manson's cue to have a bit of a stroll around the field. At the moment he basically does zero defensive work and that is not going to cut it at AFL level.

Whichever team picks up Manson is going to need to be patient with him. He is the essence of a raw prospect and is going to need time to work out what he needs to do to compete at AFL level. Bear in mind people that KPs take time. Manson I think would be a great second fiddle beside a dominate KPF who could draw the defence to them and allow Manson to compete against a third tall defender. He needs a lot of work and will need to be handled with kid gloves but if a team gets it right he could be a fantastic pick up for them.


Pick 24 – Gold Coast

Originally I had Schade in here because they have a need for a FB prospect and Schade is a really solid all around tall defender option. When I moved him up and Shifter included Hamling in his top 30 I thought why the hell not move Hamling up from the 40s where I originally had him. Hamling would be a classic Clayton style KP selection – skinny, talented, very athletic without much idea of how to play the game.

Joel Hamling
DOB 9/4/93 Ht 194 Wt 80

I must say I am a bit surprised Hamling is not getting more mentions. I love the way this guy moves around the park for someone as tall as he is. He is still very thin but that will change with a bit of time, lots of steaks and time in the gym. He played all over the ground at the champs being up forward at times, down back at others and then running through the middle of the ground rucking. He won’t ruck at AFL level but I have to say I am having trouble pegging where else would suit him best. Its not that he doesn’t have the skills to play anywhere rather the opposite. With a little more weight he could play anywhere.

He has really good athleticism having a good burst of pace and an excellent leap. He is an excellent judge of the ball in the air and often takes comfortable marks where others have misjudged the flight of the ball. He is not a big leaper at the ball or hard leader but he is a reasonably good mark of the ball. If you were going to ask him to play up forward you would need to work on developing those aspects of his game. He has pretty good goal sense and will attack the ball at pace in the forward line. He has a bit of a stutter in his set shot routine and goes off only a few steps but he is pretty balanced when he kicks it and has really good penetration for such a compromised approach.

At the moment the plays the game like a midfielder no matter where he is positioned. He has excellent agility and runs to the contest to get involved in the play. He attacks the ball well and has very clean hands below his knees, in fact probably the best for a big man in this draft. He shepherds, tackles and does all the things you expect from mids in close. He reads the ball off hands very well and is an excellent crumber for a guy you usually want flying for the ball. Under pressure he is composed and will take the bit of extra time he needs to get the ball to the right option. He is nicely balanced in the contest and holds his feet well. His handball skills are what you would expect from a midfield prospect rather than a KP and he links up very well with the midfielders when going forward. For a key position sized guy he has a very high football IQ I think.

Around the ground he is a smooth mover who eats up the ground and has an extra gear that he can use when he needs to. He has a really nice work rate but I think he needs to improve his endurance base to be able to play the way he wants to. The way he plays mostly at the moment is as a tall wingman rather than a key position. I think he would be more valuable as a key position but he needs a lot of work to be done on the skills that go along with those roles. Early in his career I see him playing as a third tall with a green light to attack the ball and get involved in attacking plays. You need to get him out running and getting his hands on the ball.

At Combine he tested very well finishing in the top 10% in one of the running jumps and doing a 2.90 in the 20m which is great for a KP prospect. Somewhat unsurprisingly his endurance testing was not great and he went just over 13 in the beep test. Wherever he plays on the ground he is going to need to improve his endurance base which will be a bit of a challenge given how much time he also needs to put in in the gym.

Currently he probably doesn’t get his hands on the ball as much as he should and is more of a burst player. Those bursts are very eye catching but I would like to see more of them. Too me he is a very tantilising prospect and one I would be more than prepared to take a punt on.


Pick 25 – St Kilda

The Saints really struggled at times this year inside when Lenny went down. In planning for the future I think they could do a lot worse than grab someone like Devon Smith here. He can start up forward as a defensive forward working with Milne and as he develops move into the midfield. He has the engine to play right away and his pace will be very handy for a Saints team that has injected quite a few very ordinary players into their side to get more pace.

Devon Smith
DOB 20/5/93 Ht 175 Wt 73

It will be interesting to see where Smith goes on draft day. He could go top 10 but equally he could easily fall down toward the bottom end of the first round. He is a high possession winner who tested fantastically well at the Combine but on the other side of the coin he is shorter than teams usually like and did not really show much improvement in his game this year. Further I am not sure that he stepped up to Champs level particularly well and so you wonder how he will go against the bigger and quicker guys of the AFL.

At the Combine, Smith managed a 15.1 in the beep test which was good for 10th, was third in the repeat sprint, was low 2.9s in the 20m sprint and was 9th in the clean hands test. He was also in the top 25% in the agility and jumps. So it’s fair to say that he did all he could to keep his name at the forefront of recruiters minds. Its fair to say that he does not just time well he also plays to his athletic capabilities. He works hard getting to contests and space and shows a really nice burst of pace regularly.

Smith has predominantly been an inside mid at junior level but he has spent some time up forward and it would not surprise me if he started his AFL career as a small forward before moving into the midfield. I think he could develop like Christensen of the Cats or Blair of Collingwood. Smith has excellent closing speed and is a good hitter for a small guy. He could be a real force in a forward press where his endurance and speed will allow him to influence the play very nicely. In the forward line he will work hard up and back and he can make life difficult for a match up with his engine and pace. He also finds space well up forward and is pretty good overhead for a short guy. His set shot style is not pretty and I would not say he is a particularly good shot for goal. He has reasonable goal sense but again I would not put him in the top bracket and he would not stack up well in the trick shot department.

In the middle I think he struggled at times at the Champs with the increase in intensity at the contest. He always seemed to be rushed and was not one of those guys who seemed to have time. I also do not think he has particularly good awareness of where people are around him. In contested situations he tends to concentrate on just getting the ball out rather than to anybody and even when he does get it to his man it is not always the best option with the receiver often under pressure. When he gets out in the open he can also often run himself into trouble seemingly because he doesn’t realise what is around him.

Skills wise he needs to work on his handballs quite a bit. He tends to plop the handball out quite often causing the receiver to have to wait and reach to receive it. He definitely needs to add some zip. With his kicking he is pretty good when he has time and space. He will usually weight his passes well and hit his targets. In ruck contests or when under pressure he usually just throws it on the boot and hopes to get it forward. He is not very constructive with his kicks under pressure.

Smith is very confident in his own abilities and carries that attitude into games. This kind of arrogance is not a bad thing if it is well founded and is often the sign of a very good player. At junior level he has a very similar style of game to Brent Harvey and it’s not out of the question that he could develop into a similar player at AFL level. There are also plenty of short, quick, high possession mids who don’t amount to anything at AFL level when they can’t play the same way they did at junior level. Smith could go either way but you would think he is a fair bet to end up a reasonable player.


Pick 26 - Richmond

News flash Richmond fans – Maric is not the answer in the ruck. He might give you a couple of serviceable years whilst you develop someone else but he is never going to be a top liner. It looks very much the same for Browne, Derickx and Graham so personally I would take a punt on another raw ruck prospect who has a very high ceiling. There is a lot of Goldstein about this pick and Downie could work out similarly. You are spending a lot on rucks this year but so what if you can get someone to give your midfield a chance now and a star of the future.

Tom Downie
DOB 27/4/93 Ht 203 Wt 94

Okay firstly I have not seen Downie at all so this review will be pretty short and sweet and based off reports of people who have. Downie is an elite basketball prospect who represented Australia at under 17 level and has not played a lot of AFL recently. This year as far as I am aware he only played two games at TAC level and has only managed 10 games in the last 5 years according to his TAC coach. I know he played school basketball this year but I am not sure whether he also played AFL. I think probably not.

Notwithstanding his lack of experience though he has reasonable skills so I am guessing there might have been a fair bit of kick to kick in the school yard for him or else his early work in Benalla have stayed with him. He moves around the ground very nicely for a big guy and works hard to make contests. He does need to improve his running game but he has good natural endurance and tested above 14 at the Combine which is very good for a ruck at this age. Its interesting that his beep test was much better than his 3km time which reflects his basketball background I think and the training he would be used to.

Downie is a very big unit with long arms who has good control of his body in the ruck contest and who directs his taps to advantage very well. He has good recovery skills and he follows up well. He has very good awareness of where his players are in the contest situation. He is not a big possession winner around the ground but this could be a function of his lack of experience. He moves well enough around the ground and has a good enough endurance base to suggest that he could become a factor in this regard. His speed and agility were both poorer than I had expected at Combine.

The kid has a great work ethic and a willingness to learn which should allow him to make up ground on the other ruck prospects available this year very quickly. Combine that with his athleticism and already seeming great game sense for someone with such little experience and his ceiling is sky high compared to other options likely to be available where he is taken. I do not rate the ruck options very highly at all this year and believe that Downie should be the second ruck off the board based purely on potential. After Longer I struggle to see anyone other than Downie being a solid starting ruck prospect and Downie could be significantly higher than that. He is an basketballer and knows what is needed to get to the top and seems to have no trouble doing the work required.


Pick 27 – Adelaide

Adelaide have a lot of blue collar workers in their team but not a lot of X factor. In Crozier they get that X factor in a guy who can play in a variety of positions but predominantly up forward where he could slot into Dangerfield’s spot with Paddy’s inevitable move to the midfield this year. You would think he would be a year away physically but them again maybe not.

Hayden Crozier
DOB 24/12/93 Ht 185 Wt 68

Crozier is a hard one to place. He has all the potential in the world and can do the spectacular but he often doesn’t do the little things as well as he should nor get involved in the game enough. He had a pretty quiet Champs really except for one nice game against WA that netted him 4 goals and his TAC form in the second half of the year was pretty poor. So poor in fact that his coach had to move him into the backline to try and reinvigorate his form by getting the ball to him more.

This is the same tactic that Carlton have used with Yarren and I think the comparison between Yarren and Crozier is pretty good. Both had high expectations coming into their second year of U18 and both disappointed a bit as small forwards despite giving us some highlight film moments. Whilst Crozier might start his career up forward I could easily see him following Yarren into the back half as he develops physically.

At the moment Crozier is very thin and has stick-like arms but it is worth noting that he is close to the youngest in this draft only just scraping into this draft class. He has pretty reasonable height but needs some serious time in the gym. His other physical attributes though are very good and he tested that way at Combine. He was second in the running jump just behind Wingard (91cm) and was 6th in both the agility test (8.08) and in the 20m sprint (2.89). His endurance was also better than I expected at 14.54. I had thought endurance would have been more of a problem for him but that score was solid. Overall Crozier has excellent athletic skills.

Up forward he is more of a flyer and crumber than a leader which needs to be corrected. With his pace and agility he should be getting out on the lead more than he is as you would think separation is there for the taking if he is prepared to work for it. Crozier does love the spectacular mark and often lines up to try and take these all the time rather than getting out on the lead or letting the bigger guys fly and staying down where he can use his good crumbing skills to full effect. At the Champs I saw several times where he flew and the big guys were forced to try and crumb. That’s not the way it should go.

Overhead he is a very nice mark though and for someone so slight he has great control of his body in the air. He reads the flight of the ball very well and times his jumps usually very well when he lets the game come to him rather than trying to force it by flying for everything. With the ball on the ground he is very clean and positions himself to get a shot at goal very well. He has excellent goal sense and he is a good finisher. He has really nice awareness of how much time he has in the forward 50 to use the ball. He judges very well when to get the ball quickly onto the boot and when to take the extra second to balance. He definitely has a goal scorer’s mentality and he wants to be the one on the scoreboard.

When he is up the ground either on a flank or at half back he shows his pace more and is a dangerous run and carry player. He is also an excellent field kick off either foot. On his preferred he has a nice flat, long kick that he uses to pinpoint his targets. His delivery into the forward 50 is also first class. With the ball in hand he loves a bounce and to take the game on although sometimes he does need to throttle back the number of bounces he has as he often seems to be bouncing it every second step.

Like Yarren he uses his body very smartly and can ease bigger guys out with subtle nudges. Overall I think he is a very smart player with excellent skills. What he needs to do though is work on getting into the game more. He too often seems to float through games and not even attempt to get into the play. He needs to work harder and giving him a job and putting him behind the ball might be the answer. Apparently he is a very bubbly personality and is fun to have around the club. He is a guy who wants to be the centre of attention whether on or off the field but he needs to made to understand what he needs to contribute in ways other than taking the big mark or going on the long run. There is a lot of potential with Crozier but he is a high risk high reward type of proposition.


Pick 28 – West Coast

After shooting for the stars at 23, WC go with a meat and potatoes guy here in Ellis. Ellis is Beau Waters without all the injury problems. A rock at the back on which the team can rely. Ellis could go a fair bit higher in the real thing and I am sure that WC would be very happy to get him here.

Brandon Ellis
DOB 3/8/93 Ht 181 Wt 83

Ellis is a powerfully built HBFer who should be able to step in and play AFL right away. He has all the physical tools to let him start from round 1 next year. He is physically mature and has an excellent engine as evidenced by his 15.4 in the beep test (4th overall) at Combine. He understands his position well and was a bit of an unsung hero for Metro at the Champs I think.

Time and again at the Champs he was the one at the back tidying up the mess. He covered an enormous amount of ground and was able to sniff out when there was a problem and got to the right place to clean it up. This was particularly evident at the end of games when everyone else seemed to be tiring. Defensively I think he reads the play very well and positions himself to influence the play. Going forward I am not so sure about his play reading ability.

In attack I think Ellis does not read how play is going to develop particularly well. He makes plays to guys who whilst open have few options open to them or who were open to make a play a short time before but by the time they receive the ball the chance has been shut down. That is not to say he takes bad options at junior level but I do have some concerns that these poor reads will be exploited more at AFL level. His option taking is usually fairly conservative and he works it out of the back half most often with short chip passes.

His kicking style is a little awkward particularly on the left but he is pretty good at hitting his targets off either foot most particularly with his short to medium range kicks. He has reasonable penetration with his long kicks and gets surprising distance with his non-preferred. He can sometimes overestimate his length and underestimate the time it will take to get there but I really don’t see much wrong with his kicking at all. He has pretty quick hands for a HBF in the contest and he can get a bit of zip on his handballs. Again he can go a little bit beyond his range with the handball on occasions forcing the receiver to wait but overall he is one of the better long handballers in this draft.

Athletically he is excellent except for one thing and that is his pace off the mark. From a standing start he is very slow but once he gets things moving he actually has a pretty good top end speed. In the sprints at Combine he was in the bottom 10% over the first 5 metres but he picked up speed on most others over the remaining 15 metres and ended up with a reasonable time of 3.05. This good top end speed was also borne out in the 30m repeat sprint where he managed a very good time to place him in the top 13% of those tested. That’s pretty good for a guy with significant pace concerns. In addition to the very good endurance tests he also was just outside the top 10 in the agility and both the standing and running jumps. The agility and jumping were great for a guy with his build and are important when assessing his ability to hold his own as a defender at AFL level.

Defensively he is not often a tight marker but that is a function of the way junior football is played. With his skill set I think he could play as either a HBFer at AFL level or could move into the midfield as a tagger who can win his own ball. Down the track I could easily see him being one of the better taggers in the game. At the moment he is a hard at it style of player but is not probably as physical as his physique would suggest. He can throw his weight around but he is not a big hitter in the tackles nor does he overplay the physical contests. He will try to break tackles but he does not get through them all that much but credit to him he is not caught holding the ball much even when he is caught. I like his tenacious style and the dependable nature of his work in the defensive half and I think whoever picks him could get a reasonable player who goes about his job quietly and does the little things which will help teams win.


Pick 29 - Fremantle

I rate Freo’s talent evaluation team highly and that is the reason I doubt this pick would happen but you never know. They were after Mitch Clark and Elton is as close to Clark are you are going to get in this draft. He is a KPF / ruck who has a world of athletic talent, good game skills, great highlights package but is a poor lead for the ball and has an inability to get any kind of consistency especially up forward. He is a top 10 selection on talent if a team can get him to play to his potential.

Todd Elton
DOB 29/4/93 Height 197 Wt 92

Elton had a poor year but is likely to go higher than his performances warrant because he is an intriguing mix of physical talent and game skills. At the moment though he has not really put it all together even playing against guys significantly smaller and less talented than himself. For a big tall with the athletic talents he has he does not influence the game consistently enough. With all that said though its easy to be enticed by his highlights package.

He moves very nicely for a big guy and can link up well going through the middle of the ground becoming another midfielder with the ball. He is a balanced kick and weights his passes well. He is a right footer and much stronger on his preferred but he is capable on his left foot. He extends well for marks and takes the ball where it is very difficult for others to reach but he does not do this often enough.

He is not a great leader in the forward line and tends not to lead to great spots. I like him more marking down back or in the middle of the ground. Overall I would rate him much more highly as a CHB prospect rather than a CHF. Behind the ball I think he can float into the contest more easily and then get off and present nicely as an option going through the middle of the ground. He can deliver into 50 from this position more easily as well. For someone who I rate as a pretty good field kick his kicking for goal is below par and this is another reason I would rate him more highly as KPD prospect.

He does a fair bit of rucking at junior level and he is solid in underage company. In the AFL he is undersized for a ruck but would be capable of competing against most second rucks who are really just key positions who are relieving the number 1 ruck.

I usually have concerns with underaged rucks converting to KPDers based mainly on substandard speed and agility but that is certainly not a concern with Elton. He did a great 2.93 in the 20m sprint and was in the top 25% of the agility test. His jumping was also great and he finished 3rd in the running vertical. Around the ground he usually looks good and seems to cover plenty of ground but he tested at just over 13 in the beep test which indicates that he has quite a bit of work to do there to compete as a CHB.

Elton does not handle physical players who he comes up against and that is going to be a problem he will need to overcome at the next level if he is going to be worth anything. He is a big framed guy who I would expect to have a powerful build when he is fully developed. Think Leigh Brown / Tom Hawkins in this regard so there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to compete physically.

Overall he really suits the current KP/Ruck model currently in vogue and the lack of KP depth this year probably helps him go higher than his performances would warrant. He is potential over performance though and needs to work much harder at getting into games and actually contributing. At the moment he looks entirely too comfortable doing not much up forward.


Pick 30 - Brisbane

This is probably a reach for Brown but he does fit the Lions needs exceptionally well so what the hell. He is a nice ruck / key position prospect who has suffered injury problems over the last couple of years. The Lions have a solid spine but are in desperate need of depth particularly in the ruck area. They have no-one who fits the mould of a 2nd ruck under the new rules and Brown could certainly do that. On the day I am expecting a KP to go here and personally I would like it to be Schade.

Ben Brown
DOB 20/11/92 Ht 199 Wt 93

Brown was overlooked last year after badly injuring his knee during the Champs. He was out for a full year but returned to compete in the Champs this year as an overage player. He was probably not as dominant as I thought he might have been but it was still a pretty solid performance from a guy who only just came back from a full reco and has hardly played. He did have some nice games at the Champs including in the big one against NSW which decided the Div 2 title for Tasmania. In addition to his knee problems Brown has also had OP and shoulder issues to contend with.

He has a thin build and has not put on a huge amount of weight since we saw him last year. It’s unlikely that he will ever be a massive guy but I compared him last year in build to Gorringe and I think that comparison still stands. Athletically before the knee operation Brown was pretty good with a nice leap and enough speed to create separation. I didn’t see much this year to indicate that he has lost much and signs are that he should get everything back athleticism wise. He didn’t test at the Combine which is a shame and I think he could be one whose decision to keep people in the dark could hurt. There were a lot of questions about how much his athleticism was affected and he could have put them to rest by testing. Still if he did have a legitimate injury he would only have hurt his chances but when teams are kept in the dark they usually will refrain from taking the risk.

Brown is more of a ruck at the moment but he is also a capable forward. I like him as an around the ground accumulator maybe not to the Cox level but you get what I mean. He competed against the big boys in the under 18s including Witt, and held his own. He does need to work on his tap work but given he comes from a basketball background rather than football that should not surprise. He has only been focused on AFL for a couple of years. As mentioned above he is also a capable forward when called upon and could play as a complementary forward / second ruck in the AFL. He played predominantly as a forward last year and his bag of 5 against Qld was impressive.

He has excellent hands both above and below the knees for a big man and a good awareness in traffic of where everyone is. For a big man Brown is exceptionally good in traffic and has pretty quick hands. He has a lot of X factor about him and its worth noting this quote from the Tasmanian coach last year - "He does some freakish things. He looks gangly but he's got the cleanest hands below his knees for a big bloke that I've ever seen."

Up forward he is a good shot for goal and converts his chances well. I haven’t seen much at all of him but his kicking for goal seems a lot better than Tippett’s and Clark’s who are of similar size and disposition and that should encourage teams. He reads the play coming up the field well and times his leads to good spots very well. He is a big guy and at U18 level he used his body very smartly to give himself opportunities. He has sometimes good judgment and sometimes poor (ie liking Red Dwarf but supporting Freo) but you can forgive that in a kid I like him as a prospect and I am sure someone will take a punt on him.

Pick 31 – Essendon

A lot of people have Ross pegged for Essendon at 19 but personally I think that is too high for him. He should last to here on draft day and if he does this pick does have a lot of romance to it and I can see it happening. Ross fits the needs of Essendon for an inside ball winner.

Sebastian Ross
DOB 7/5/93 Ht 187 Wt 82

Ross has improved a great deal over the last couple of years and really made a name for himself at TAC level averaging 25 disposals per game. He has worked very hard to improve his endurance levels to the point where they are now pretty good. The kid is not a natural endurance athlete but he has worked on his gut running and now it is at a level where I am comfortable that he can develop into an AFL player. I still have some concerns about his ability to step up in class to AFL level but he has at least answered one of the major question marks people had.

As mentioned I do have some concerns about how he will step up. I thought he was pretty invisible at the Champs this year in situations tailor made for him to shine. Even against the Div 2 teams I thought he didn’t really do anything to indicate that he could make a significant impact at AFL level. He had plenty of time onball and managed to average only 14.5 disposals per game.

At TAC level he played again mostly as an inside out midfielder although he also showed that he is a capable forward. He is around the ball a lot and when he gets his hands on the ball shows elite awareness of where everyone is. He gets out balls to guys who you wonder how he knew they were there let along got them the ball. He clears his arms well in contests and delivers a very nice handball. He is not super clean in the contest though and can fumble it a bit.

His kicking is often seen as a strength of his game but it is an area I also think he will need to be worked on at the next level. He is a left footer who has really nice feel with his kicks but he rarely kicks with much velocity. He will float the ball up a bit and weight the pass. This works fine at underage level but with the closing speed of AFL players it can be asking for trouble. I think it will take time but I believe he should be able to flatten his kicking out fine. He has pretty good style, decision making and touch and I think it will be a matter of just working on punching it in there more.

He is tenacious and is a guy you know is going to work really hard for you and leave it all on the field. He is an able tackler but not what I would call a strong tackler. He is not often brushed but guys can ride out his tackles and free themselves to get the ball away.

At AFL level I think he will start on a flank either up forward or down back with the likelihood that he will move to more of an inside role as he develops physically. His skills are solid or better than that and he has shown an ability to find the ball (at least at TAC level). There are a few like him in this draft and not all of them are going to get picked but I think his attitude and the development curve of the Watson family (he is Jobe’s cousin) will encourage teams to take a punt on him.


Pick 32 - Geelong

Geelong are in their usual enviable position of being able to sit back and pick off the talent that falls. This year it is Haynes who is highly regarded by many. I compare him somewhat to Corey and with the end approaching for Joel having a similar player in the wings would be very handy.

Nick Haynes
DOB 18/5/92 Ht 191.5 Wt 78

Haynes is taller than many of the KP prospects available this year and is a good mark but he is never going to be a KP. He was a small midfielder who grew a foot late and still plays as a HFF / winger. Haynes is an overage player who sat out from football for 4 years after badly fracturing his arm. He returned to football as a 17 year old but only got serious about it again last year. He has shown excellent development over the last 2 years and has all but assured himself of being drafted this year. Emma Quayle I note had him in her top 15 last month. I personally don’t rate him that highly but he does present as a very interesting prospect given his height, running ability and development potential. Coming from a long way back he made the TAC team of the year last year, represented Vic Country this year and won the Stingrays B&F this year.

Haynes is compared by his coach to Tom Lynch of the Gold Coast but I am not sure I see the comparison too much. Both he and Lynch have exceptional engines for big guys (Haynes managed a 15 in the beep and was 5th in the 3km) and are intensively competitive but whilst Lynch is a true KP Haynes never will be. Too me he is more of a Joel Corey. A tall outside receiver who can run all day, is pretty good marking the ball, a good read of the play and has reasonable but not great skills.

One aspect of Haynes’ game that I rate very highly is his ability to work the packs. He will put his head over the ball when it’s his turn but that’s not his game. He moves around with the ball in dispute and positions himself very well not only to receive the ball but also where he can make use of the ball when he gets it. He very often gets the ball in positions where he can escape the defenders and this is because of his ability to read both where the ball is likely to go, how the players around are going to react and how best to take advantage of it. This is not a skill that a lot of supposed outside players have and it’s something worth noting.

In tight and when chasing he is a ready tackler. He works hard at this aspect of his game. He shows good technique in wrapping up the ball-carrier and preventing him getting it away. At present sometimes his strength does not match his technique but as he develops physically I am sure his technique and effort will make him a very good tackler.

Haynes has a reputation as a very good mark and there is some basis to the reputation but he is not a big marking threat inside 50. He does not really jump much for the ball and had poor jump results at Combine. What he does do is use his height well against smaller opposition and mark the ball out in front of his eyes rather than directly overhead. Taking the ball a bit in front of himself makes it very difficult for smaller men to spoil him. In the AFL against bigger opposition he might have some issues but some very good FFs have made a career out of taking marks there and not having to jump. He judges the ball very well in the air and times his arrival at the marking contest nicely.

He has middling pace and agility but he can look quick because he has the endurance to let him use the pace that he does have more often. Skills wise I also don’t think there is a lot to say. His kicking is reasonable but I think it needs some polish and he does not seem to have great feel on his kicks in what I have seen of him. By hand he is similarly okay but in need of some intensive work to sharpen his skills up. All this could be a bit of a function of the time out of the game that he had and his growth over the last couple of years. I don’t see any real problem with his skills but neither are they are selling feature for me.

Haynes had some injury issues during the year and played through them showing good commitment and toughness. He sounds like a guy who needed to be convinced to commit to AFL but once he did he gave it his all. I do however get the impression that he is more likely to be comfortable remaining in Victoria close to his friends and support network.


Pick 33 - Hawthorn

The Hawks are very much in the window but again this year they were exposed with their lack of height at the back. Gibson did a great job but he is undersized and more suited to a third tall role. When everyone is fit there are guys that they can throw in there like Schoenmakers and Stratton (and Roughhead) but they are not always consistent. They also lost Lisle this offseason and may look to replace his height. I have them going with Blee who I think could come in and play from day one and do a very good job. The Hawks had great results with mature aged recruits Smith and Puopolo last year and they could easily go that route again to get a guy that could help them win a premiership. Lockyer is another I think could be a chance here.

Nathan Blee
DOB Ht 191 Wt 84

Blee is someone who has come from the clouds this year and is behind only Mohr as a mature age key position defender prospect. Initially I was surprised someone had not done a deal with GWS to secure Blee as one of the overage players they could take. Subsequently I found out however that, unlike Mohr, Blee had never previously declared for the draft. Blee had never been even a remote chance before and had never bothered to declare and so he was not eligible to be picked up by GWS. After a couple of years playing his way through the East Perth system he debuted in the WAFL this year and never looked back. He was named as the FB in the WAFL Team of the Year and got the attention of the eastern clubs with some really strong games in the Foxtel Cup particularly against Williamstown.

Blee had never played in defence prior to coming to East Perth and is still a relative novice at the position. This year he got himself a lot fitter than in previous years and without any injury problems he established himself as one of the premier defenders in the WAFL. He got the best forward every week whether that was a tall or a short and he was rarely beaten. He has shown really good development over in the latter parts of last season and that continued throughout this year. He has gotten better and better and I think there is some development left for a team to exploit when they get him into a full time AFL environment.

Rather than playing as a KP, Blee spent his junior career as a midfielder and that is still evident in the way he plays. He has good concise skills and is very composed when on the ball. He is a calm presence at the back and I think will work well against AFL forward presses. He assesses his options well and is very elusive for a big guy. Often KPDers coming into the AFL are flustered with the reduced time that they have but Blee should be one who can deal with it.

The big query with Blee is whether he will be a KP at AFL level or only a third tall. Him playing on talls and shorts at WAFL level confused the issue and him measuring in short at the Combine also did not help things. Personally I think he will start as a third tall but develop into a KP as he puts on some weight. He plays well against guys bigger than himself and this includes against guys with AFL experience in the WAFL and the Foxtel Cup. He is a really good spoiler of the ball and shows excellent decision making skills about when to mark the ball and when to spoil. In 19 games this year he averaged 3.5 marks and just over 4 spoils a game. He has good closing speed and athleticism and this should enable him to play above his height. He will get games straight away as a third tall with his ability to go with smalls as well as talls. Some of the top echelon smalls will probably worry him but he has the pace and agility to go with most. His endurance seems pretty solid from what I have been able to determine.

With the ball going forward Blee is more use than most of the other FB options available. His midfield background is evident and he links up well for a FB. He averaged 14 disposals a game and this is in his first year out there in a relatively new position playing on the best forward every week. As he learns the position better and gains more confidence he could become a real threat coming out of defence. I could see him developing into a Scarlett type FB and he is a similar size to the Champion Cat.

Blee has glandular fever atm and did not test at Combine which is a shame. Having seen less of him than some others I would have liked to have a few hard numbers to put on his pace, endurance and agility. Unfortunately it was not to be. From what I have been able to determine Blee is a humble, unassuming bloke who will come into a side and quietly just go about his business. He will work hard and take feedback well which is aimed at making him a better player. If I was a team in the premiership window I would give Blee a long hard look.


Pick 34 - Geelong

I think Geelong will look to get a KPD with at least one of their second round picks. There is Gillies who got a bit of attention in the offseason but I am not aware of a hell of a lot more to come in when Scarlett retires. Lonegan is also getting up there in age and KPs do take a couple of years. Boseley and Talia are two well regarded players who might get a look but personally I do not rate them myself. I would look maybe at the Frost brothers and also Bussey who I have taken. Bussey is a couple of years away physically but he has some very nice attributes. I would also have Blee in the picture here if I was Geelong.

Michael Bussey
DOB 5/7/93 Ht 197 Wt 80

Bussey is a difficult one to get a read of about where he will go. He is a former AIS player the knock against whom was that he was inconsistent and that inconsistency has continued this year. Most figured that he would step up this year and he was one of the top 25 players to watch from this year’s Prospectus. With all of that said he has the size and skill set which will intrigue a lot of teams and with the lack of depth in this year’s draft someone will take a punt on him.

Bussey has played most of his junior football as a KPF but he has spent some time down back and in the ruck. In the AFL I see him as a defender who can pinch hit in the ruck if needed. He is a little undersized even for a second ruck under the sub rule but not hugely so and he has a good leap and better ruck skills than most of the other KP/ruck (rather than ruck/KP options like Brown and Elton) options going around. He is balanced in the ruck contest and recovers quickly to follow up after the tap has been won or lost.

I think Bussey playing as a defender and being responsible for a player could be the making of him. Physically he has nice height, long arms, a very good leap (7th in the running leap at Combine) and has the closing speed to trouble most forwards (2.96 in the 20m). He also reads the play very nicely and judges the ball in the air well and provides a good contest. He is quite physical as a defender and seems to enjoy that aspect of the game. He is a bit thin at the moment but he has a nice set of shoulders on him and he should develop into a good sized player in due course.

He can tend to give his player a bit too much room and back his ball reading ability and speed to allow him to recover but I would expect him to be found out a bit early. He cruises around nicely going forward being a balanced mover for a big guy. In the open field he doesn’t mind a gallop although I don’t think his step is quite as good as he thinks it is. I can see him taking players on at AFL level early and being tackled a lot. He is not a bad kick having good distance but he does not have the most relaxed kicking style you will see and tends to get his head over the ball a little which can see him take a bit of time to get rid of it. By hand he can also use some work with him often misweighting his handballs causing players to reach for it or hitting it too hard to a guy a metre away from him.

Up forward is where he has played most of his football and he could well start up there at AFL level as well. In the marking contest he gets up nicely showing good height and ability to hit the ball at his highest point. His hands overhead are reasonable being neither particularly good nor particularly bad. He can work up the park and then back which gets him open a fair bit at junior level. Inside the forward 50 he is not as consistent a leader as you would like. He should get open more than he does with his pace and height and he does not always lead to the best spots. His kicking for goal is also not of the highest quality. He tends to waive the ball around a bit on his approach and his drop varies from kick to kick often being a little high.

On paper Bussey has a fair bit going for him and I would be pretty confident someone will take a punt on him. He has holes in his game but I think there will be a club out there who will back themselves to get the best out of him.


Pick 35 – St Kilda

With Dawson walking out the Saints have to take a mature aged fullback with one of their picks. If Blee is available here I take him otherwise I probably wait until 43. With this pick I have gone with Lockyer who I think is probably a bit undersized to be a KPD but he may well develop into one. He has great tenacity and his attitude would be very handy in defense for the Saints. He also has very nice speed which again is needed back there. Some people rate Lockyer very highly but I think in the 30s is about right.

Jordan Lockyer
DOB 15/6/93 Ht 191.5 Wt 86

Lockyer is a bit of a tweener at the moment but it is possible that he could turn into a key position down the track most probably at the defensive end. Currently he plays both ends but at AFL I doubt he will be anything but a defender. I say that he could develop into a key position but he really does not play tall and I think he is most likely to end up as a third tall who can go to talls or smalls and shut down either well. He showed good development over the year and the improvement after the Champs for West Perth that clubs like to see.

This kid is a footballer first and foremost. On the park he is not pretty being more of a crash and bash style player wherever he plays. There is not much finesse in his game. His skills are pretty good in that he gets the ball where it needs to go but again things are not pretty and he has technical glitches in both his kicking and handball styles. Given he is the son of a former AFL player you would expect these are long ingrained and it would be difficult to break him of the bad habits. With that said he is effective and teams might just be prepared to live with it – why fix something if it is not broken. The feel on his kicks is very good and he has reasonable zip on them. He finished 2nd in the kicking test at the Combine which is great for a big guy so maybe everyone should be adopting his glitches. Kicking for goal he has a bit of a stutter in his run up and he stabs through the kick ending a bit side on. Again a bit awkward but reasonably effective and he has range to 50.

He has the body shape to play his crash and bash style. He is solid for his age group especially through the hips and legs. His lower body strength is good and probably a little ahead of his upper body strength. His upper body strength is good for his age, don’t get me wrong, but for his size I think it could be a little better. He holds his feet well in contested situations but doesn’t really fling the light bodies around as much as you might think he would. He is a determined tackler but he can be a bit overeager at times and I think he might get pinged a bit at AFL level when the opponent feels him in the back and drops the knees on him.

For a guy his size he has great speed clocking a 2.89 in the 20m at Combine which was 6th overall and he also finished 6th overall in the running leap. So in defense take it as a given he has the speed to go with forwards and the leap to spoil them even if they are a bit bigger than him. His repeat sprint was not quite as good but he still finished in the top 20%. His beep test was over 14 and he was in the top third in the agility which was all goodish for an over 190 defender. So all up he was one of the more impressive performers at the Combine.

Despite having okay-ish height I mentioned that he does not tend to play tall. He often finds his way to contests rather than hanging back with the KPF and when he does get a KPF he often seems a bit overmatched. He has a good leap and is a reasonable spoil but he does lack the timing a bit on the spoils and can get a little out of position. He is good running step for step but if the forward can position himself to take the ball in front of his eyes I think Lockyer can be found out.

Up forward he is useful being a pretty good mark. He uses his spring well to crash packs. He is not a particularly strong leader for the ball and he should get more separation than he does given his pace. His hands though are good both above his head and below his knees and he can get down and mix it up well if the ball hits the deck. He doesn’t have great goal sense but he is dangerous.

Around the ground generally he works very hard and brings a physicality to the game that his teammates would love and opposition hate. He will do the team things and will throw himself into a contest as and when required. In the contest itself he clears his arms well and does okay. At the back he has pretty good composure and he a reasonable decision maker who executes his decisions well. Overall Lockyer is a hard at it type who will find himself a position in most teams out there.

Pick 36 - Melbourne

Melbourne have acquired Clark to be their big bodied full forward. It’s a shame he doesn’t really play that role at all well. He is much more effective as a mobile CHF (i.e. Watt’s role) or in the ruck (i.e. Jamar’s role). Personally I think Melbourne should be looking for a proper FF to develop behind their current group. Dobosz would be perfect and I think he is a real chance to go here on draft day. McInnes does not really fit the role description but he is probably next best and I would give him a shot here if Dobosz is gone.

Fraser McInnes
DOB 19/7/93 Ht 196 Wt 93

McInnes has a lot of guys who really rate him on BF which is fair enough. He has all the tools and looks like he should be a good player and if I am being honest he is the type of player I usually buy into (see Frost x 2 and Hamling). My problem with him is that for all that he has the tools he rarely makes use of them to do anything particularly useful. He reportedly finished the year strongly making his debut in the WAFL in the final round and admittedly I did not see him during this run but what I have seen of him has left me underwhelmed.

Firstly the good, McInnes has great size for a key position player measuring in above what was advertised which was a nice surprise. He is also physically mature, already being a big unit and having sufficient size to play AFL at an early time. For such a big guy he moves nicely around the park and displays good speed and agility. He has good hands being both good above his head and below his knees. He works hard both ways and he might be one of the better defensive key positions this year when he is playing in the forward half. His skills are solid and apparently his off field preparation is first class. He is very prepared to work hard to improve his game and takes feedback well.

For all of these many great attributes McInnes rarely if ever dominates a game even against kids who were vastly outmatched physically. This is a kid who is for all intents and purposes the same size at Jonathan Patton but whereas Patton dominates those match ups and finishes with bags of goals McInnes will run around and flash some really nice things but end up having too little real impact on the game. If he is unable to dominate against the kids what chance is he to do the same against guys who are the same size as him or bigger in the AFL and every bit as athletic?

Whilst his defensive work up forward is very good he does not display very good defensive skills whilst playing at the back. He is a pretty good read of the ball in the air but he can lose track of his man and be beaten to the ball. He perhaps lacks a little discipline playing in defence which is not all that uncommon for junior forwards who are turning into defenders. Still I would like him to display a bit more instinct for his defensive work. He has the size and athleticism to play as a KPD if he can get the positional aspect worked out.

Up forward despite having very admirable defensive aspects to his game he does not have the scoreboard impact that you would expect. He does not really lead to the dangerous spots nor have the tricks to get clear. He relies on his marking ability too much and I doubt this will be a winning formula at AFL level. He does not seem to have a great deal as far as goal sense and he is a 50/50 proposition as far as finishing goes. He played a fair bit of ruck at Colts level showing nice around the ground skills and a propensity to find plenty of the ball but he is not tall enough to ruck at AFL level even as a second ruck.

McInnes had injuries throughout the year which saw him miss the Champs. He played out the year and the finals for Perth ressies but he did not test at Combine. Again he is one I was interested in seeing how he tested and find it frustrating when these guys decide that they are too injured to run around nws that they played in finals a week or two before. Using the old eyeball test however he looks the goods athletically and I am sure a team is going to take a punt on him probably earlier than I have him here. He is probably going to be a CHF or CHB at AFL level but needs some intensive positional work in order to be at all effective. The big positive for him sounds like he is not afraid of hard work and so will likely do what is required to make something of himself.


Pick 37 – St Kilda

The Saints got in Peake and Lovett because they perceived that they needed to inject some pace into their side. The problem now is that with the likes of Peake, Polo, Gilbert and Gram they have some appalling users of the ball. The Saints with this pick have the ability I believe to inject not only one of the quickest guys ever tested but also a pretty good ball user. He will play out on a wing and is a tackler that would blend in well into their defensive structure. This kid could be exceptionally dangerous and there is a lot to like about him for the Saints.

Jordan Murdoch
DOB 23/3/92 Ht 189 Wt 81

Murdoch is another of the plethora of guys this year who are just a little bit too short to be a KP but are not really mids either. Murdoch looks like he has grown a couple of centimetres this year but at 19 it’s probably unlikely he is going to get much bigger. I do think however that he has some potential to develop into a tall, speedy wing.

The thing that really sets Murdoch apart from the crowd is his pace and teams are always trying to add pace to their sides. His elite speed will get him drafted. Murdoch was involved in the SANFL finals and missed the Combine so he had to attend the State Screening where he ripped out a 2.76 20m time just outside the record set my Wilkinsen last year. From watching him in games I wouldn’t have thought he was quite that quick but he certainly does show really nice game speed at times and I have not seen him run down when at full gallop.

A player I think Murdoch could end up emulating is Issac Smith of the Hawks. Murdoch plays predominantly as a forward but he has shown some skills further up the ground. He is a left footer who delivers really nicely into the forward 50 and has excellent touch on his passes. He has good penetration on his kicking and he had several goals at the Champs from the 50 or just outside. He can fade them a little when he leans back for distance but there is nothing that worries me in that regard.

When he is up the ground he is more of a receiver than a ball winner and when he does get in the clinches his hands are not particularly quick. He tends to circle the ball a bit, not attacking the pill with his pace as you would like to see. When he receives it he is often a little flat footed but he has excellent agility and he can avoid tackles with that and his pace. He seems pretty clean when he receives the ball and I haven’t seen much to indicate that he is prone to fumbling. When he gets some space he is difficult to contain because of his pace and agility. He also has a pretty fair baulk that allows him to get around defenders.

Where he is exceptional is as a open field tackler and he is one of the best available this year. He has good size, long arms and he is very hard to get around. He maintains balance very well and watches the players core and is rarely fooled by baulks and even when he is his pace and agility allow him to recover quickly. His tackling technique is pretty good although he is not a thumper more of a wrap up style.

Up forward he is quite a good leader able to create space on the lead. If there is one criticism of what I have seen is that he probably doesn’t do it enough or repeat the effort. He seems to have a pretty good football brain and usually leads to good spaces and when he uses his pace he seems to create separation with ease in dangerous spots. He is not particularly strong overhead and tends to take most of his marks out in front of himself. If the ball is coming in onto his head he can get a little under the ball and not protect the drop zone. As mentioned above he is a pretty reasonable shot for goal.

What I would like to see from him is to improve his endurance. Once he does that I think it would open the game up for him a lot as a wingman in the Smith mould. At the moment he fades in and out of games and lacks the tank to work hard enough to get the possessions he needs to show him at his best. He has a very tantilising skill set and I am sure someone will take him this year.

Pick 38 - Hawthorn

Cyril could probably use a pal in the forward line to create havoc defensively and Schloithe might be the one to do it. Great pace and excellent tackling ability could see him play an important role in a team like Hawthorn where the pressure would be off him and opposition are worried about others.

Haiden Schloithe
DOB 16/6/93 Ht 182 Wt 76

There is huge potential with Schloithe but there is also a couple of significant problems with him and really I have no idea where he will go. He could go in the top 25 or not until the rookie draft its just really difficult to say given the strengths and weaknesses in him are both very strong. I am higher on him than most but I can understand easily why he would go higher or lower.

He is a country boy who was one of the key players in the South Freo Colts powerhouse team this year. There was a lot of rough edges to his game early in the year but he really showed good improvement over the year and finished the year very strongly with 2 games in the WAFL reserves and then 3 in the senior side. He was named as the Coaches player of the year in the WAFL colts and vice-captain in the team of the year.

Schloithe projects as a small forward at AFL level and that is where he has played a lot of his football to date although with significant times in the midfield as well. He was only invited to the State Screening but he grabbed headlines with a fantastic 2.80 in the 20m sprint. His beep test result was VERY poor which did surprise me a little but I guess it does explain why he has not often looked that quick during games – he just doesn’t have the endurance to use his pace that much. Teams will be concerned by his endurance result but it could be a chance to get a kid a bit lower in the order if someone has confidence that he will be able to build his engine sufficiently. His jumps in the State Screening would have encouraged recruiters looking to give him a home finishing in the 86th percentile in the running jump.

Up forward Schloithe could be a defensive dynamo when you combine his pace with his tackling ability. At Colts level this year he averaged 7.7 tackles a game and has a real hunting mentality with his tackling. He has been a consistent goal scorer for South Freo rather than a dominating one (although with Shaw and Kersten there opportunities might be limited somewhat) finishing with 22 goals for the year across the levels. He played some senior games for his local club last year and he had a couple of 12 goal games apparently so he does have some ability to kick bags. From what I have seen of him he is still a little rough with his finishing but improving all the time and his goal sense is very strong. He has been working on his party trick finishing and these seem to be coming on well.

He worked strongly up the field in the reserves (17.5 dpg) and colts (20 dpg) and is a reasonable ball winner who reads the play pretty well. His disposal skills are still a little erratic but better than they were and his entries into 50 are often pretty good. It’s worth noting he had 6 inside 50s in the Colts GF.

There is a lot to like with Schloithe’s pace but I have also been impressed with his strength over the ball whether he is playing up forward or more through the midfield. He is a reasonable build for an 18 year old and has very good strength through the hips. He can be difficult to tackle and is capable of shaking a player off and maintaining his feet. I have to admit the strength and pace aspects of his game combined with a great defensive mindset and good goal sense intrigue me.

Like I have said previously though he is a bit of a rough diamond at the moment and if he is taken I probably would not expect to see him next year. According to his coach he has a real love of the game and is a very hard worker and if he works on what he needs to work on and builds his engine to an acceptable level a team could have a really good player here.


Pick 39 – Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are in need of some KPD depth which was clear after last year and they will be well aware of what Frost can do after he played for Williamstown this year. He has improved a great deal over the course of the year and I think he is a good chance to be on a list somewhere next year. The Bulldogs players would have also got an up close and personal look at Blee in the Foxtel Cup this year and it would not surprise me if he went here either.

Jack Frost
DOB: 25/2/92 Ht: 194 Wt: 87ish

Frost is an overaged KPD (same age as Boseley) who will be in contention to be picked this year. He is only one year out of the under 18s and has made a name for himself in the latter part of the season and was getting some mention as a rookie of the year candidate in the VFL. He started the year slowly playing in the reserves for the first half or more of the season before cracking the VFL. Since that time he has continued to develop and is turning heads in a strong Williamstown team.

He did State testing last year and ran a 2.98 in the 20m showing he has excellent speed for a big guy particularly off the mark. His jumping was also very good figuring in the two 10% to 15% for the two footed and running jump. What let him down though was his endurance testing which was particularly poor. 12.33 in the beep test I am sure scared a lot of recruiters. This year he struggled early to meet the performance targets set for him at Williamstown but once he started to hit them his performances improved dramatically. With his endurance up to an acceptable level he has been able to go consistently with the AFL quality forwards he played on in the VFL.

He is a tall agile defender with a wiry build a lot like Dustin Fletcher. I don’t think he has the frame to ever be a massive guy but I am not sure you would want that with his athleticism. He has been played predominantly down back at VFL level but he has played a fair bit of forward at lower levels. I think he is likely to be an AFL defender but he does have the marking skills of a forward. He has a nice set of hands and is an excellent judge of the flight of the ball. He positions himself very nicely to mark where only he can and often wins contests on the back of superior judgment. His skills have improved this year quite a bit but they still need a fair bit of polish. I think he will get there though given how they have improved this year.

Not getting picked last year seemed seems to have been the kick up the butt he needed and Frost has a reputation as being very coachable and being willing to listen and work on his game. This reputation looked a bit under threat early in the year but his finish to the year speaks heavily in his favour. He trained at the Bulldogs last year and there is a rumour floating around that they may be interested in rookie listing him this year. He has to make it through the National Draft first though and given the lack of quality in the draft this year I think someone could take a punt on this guy who has shown a fair bit playing against men and who just looks like he is made for AFL football.


Pick 40 – North Melbourne

If North were trying to promote the shinboner spirit in their list then they could do a lot worse than take Spurr. He can play either end for them and you know he is going to be working his butt off to get the team over the line. North have plenty of kids and adding a hungry 24 year old who has come up the hard way is not going to hurt their development.

Lee Spurr
DOB 27/7/87 Ht 182 Wt 79

With the success of the SA mature agers last year like Duigan you would have to think Spurr would have to be pretty unlucky not to get picked up by someone this year. In fact reports are that he was very close to getting to Freo or the Hawks as part of the dodgey deal GWS was trying to pull off for the mini draft selections. There has been interest in him reportedly from the Saints, Freo, Hawks and Essendon and I would expect someone to take him probably in the ND but certainly as a rookie.

Spurr is a utility type of player capable of playing down back, through the middle or up forward. I see him settling into a quarterback role at the back and I think he could be a real asset for a team with a young group of defenders. He is a mature guy who can come in and play right away and organise the defence like Duigan did for Carlton this year. He is not as good a defender as Duigan is but going forward is equally good directing traffic and superior with his run off and long kicking.

He links up very well and is a big run and carry player who can follow the ball the length of the park. With the ball in hand he is a very good decision maker. He has a long leg on him but his skills are probably solid rather than anything more than that. There has been some improvement in his skills over the last couple of years and there is nothing to suggest that with some concerted work at AFL level he wouldn't continue to improve. He has been compared to Gram a few times on BF and I would say his skills are probably better than Gram's although that is not saying too much.

When the ball is there to be won Spurr goes hard and is a very capable ball winner. He works very hard around the ground and is hard at it. He did not test at State Screening but I would assume his endurance would have been right up there. He covers a lot of ground and is a good gut runner. His pace is okay but nothing more than that I don't think judging from the way he plays. He regularly racked up big numbers in the SANFL this year and there is nothing to suggest that he wouldn't do the same in the AFL (i.e. get on him for DT/SC). Like most people I loved his last quarter in the SANFL GF where he almost single handedly brought Centrals back into the game with 11 last quarter possessions. His work rate at the end of the game and determination to bring his team back into it really spoke highly to me of a guy I would love to have at my club.

Spurr has gotten quite a bit of attention this year for his marking. He has taken a couple of screamers throughout the year including a big one in the GF. For a smallish guy he has a very nice leap and times his jumps very well, controls his body in the air and has the hands to then take the mark. He is hard to outmark for a guy of similar size although he could stand to punch more when down back.

Spurr is a Qlder who moved to SA to play football at a higher level and study. He is currently doing Commercial Law at uni so it not your typical boofhead footballer. Speaking from experience he has to be a good bloke if he is both a Qlder and a lawyer. Overall Spurr is a smart footballer who can come in and help a team straight away and is capable of turning a game. He has solid skills and has a great attitude.

Pick 41 - Adelaide

Adelaide could use some speedy mids especially if they can with the ball and then kick it with precision. Nelson if his kicking at the Combine is any indication is that. He would be a good acquisition at this stage of the draft.

Shane Nelson
DOB 11/5/93 Ht 177 Wt 69

Nelson is a bit of a hard one to get a handle on for me and I am not at all sure where he will go on the day. His measurables are all great and I figure someone will take him probably significantly earlier than this but for me he does not play as well as he measures.

At the Champs he averaged 22 possessions per game but for the most part he was pretty invisible having little actual impact on the games he played. In Colts football in WA he was an absolute ball magnet averaging 32 disposals a game. He didn’t get anywhere near that sort of return when he stepped up to WAFL Ressies averaging only 12 or so disposals a game in the three games he played at that level. He did not get any games at senior level in the WAFL for West Perth and that does lead me to question a little bit about his ability to step up to AFL level.

Nelson is an outside/in midfielder who is capable of playing some time in the forward line and is probably likely to start his AFL career up there as a defensive small forward. He has elite speed (2.87 in the 20m which was 3rd overall at Combine) and agility (8.13 which was 9th overall) and is a willing tackler who closes quickly and attacks the player with the ball. He didn’t do the endurance testing for some reason at the Combine but from watching matches he seems to have very good endurance as well as speed. Combine all of that and I think defensively he could be a factor up forward in the AFL.

He has a bit of a reputation as being dangerous around goals when playing up forward but I have not really seen much evidence of that. In the Colts he managed 10 goals from his 9 matches and only 1 goal and 2 behinds in his 3 Ressies matches. His hands are pretty good overhead but he is not a big jumper and I would not say he is an aerialist. He judges the ball pretty well off hands but he is not very clean below the knees and his finishing under pressure is not a strength. His goal sense seems okay though and perhaps with some intense work on his forward skills he could be a factor on the scoreboard as well as defensively.

When he has time and space his kicking is usually good although he is prone to occasionally fluffing a kick. He is very strong on his non-preferred left and is as close to a dual footed player as there is in this draft. He had an exceptional kicking test at Combine managing to hit 29/30 (1st overall and equal the record from last year) which I am sure helped his stock given kicking is a little bit of a question mark for him. Like I said above his kicking in space is good but I think his disposal skills under pressure leave a fair bit to be desired. He tends to rush his kicks and handballs when under pressure and accuracy and option taking tend to go out the window.

Nelson is at his best when he is linking up and has time to consider the options ahead of him and execute. He does lose a little pace with this ball in hand but he is rarely caught. On the outside he is not afraid to use the handball and can be pretty effective with give and go moves. On the inside he is bullish but not terribly skillful and he leaves his feet a little too easily for my liking in the contest. He attacks the ball or man well but is not very clean or skillful when he gets it. He does not seem to have any time and takes the first option presented. He does however win his fair share of the ball and makes his presence felt with clearing the ball and making tackles.

Nelson will certainly have his admirers out there and probably rightly so. His pace, endurance and ball winning skills cannot be doubted and if the kicking test holds true then you might be getting a very skillful player as well. There are question marks with him though and these have caused me to drop him a little. The second or third round is where I see him going in the draft.


Pick 42 – St Kilda

The Saints need someone to play FB right now and Hartigan I think could step in and play right away. He is a big unit who has done a good job at VFL level on a lot of the forwards he would meet at AFL level. His decision making leaves a bit to be desired but I guess that just means he will fit right in with Gilbert and Gram at the back. He is certainly no worse than Merrett in this regard and he manages to survive. I would also say his skills are better than Talia’s who many rate as a top 30 pick.

Kyle Hartigan
Height: 194cm, Weight: 93kg, DOB: 7/11/91

Okay I am nothing if not persistent. This is the third year in a row I have included Hartigan and honestly I am no more sure of him getting picked up than I have been in previous years. The kid has however continued to develop and along with teammate Sean Tighe have to be considered as legitimate AFL prospects. They have both done the hard yards at Werribee and have been consistent performers. Despite being eligible for the last two drafts it is worth noting that Hartigan only had his 20th birthday this month and this if nothing else should intrigue a few recruiters. The kid has been competing against AFL talent for two years now and has been doing very nicely. Fev kicked 6 on him a few weeks ago but his coach praised his effort given the barrage of ball that was coming in. Werribee was up to 5th in the VFL this year in no small part due to platform offered by their KPDs. He was the Western Jets captain in 09 and a former AIS/AFL Academy member.

Hartigan plays as a blanketing one on one defender and as demonstrated in his junior years he is capable of finding the ball going the other way. If you are in need of a tall defender he is one to definitely consider and personally I think he is head and shoulders above the U18 prospects likely to be available here on performance and has at least as much upside. He is composed at the back and looks assured. He has played some football up forward but he is a very ordinary shot for goal.

He has good size and reasonable athletic ability. A commonly identified weakness of his is his decision making coming out of defense but I think that is overstated especially when compared against the likes of Talia and Boseley who he clearly outshines. Overall I think he is a reasonable kick without being a stand out. He has continued to develop his aerial work and is now a very good judge of the ball in the air and he makes good decisions about whether to mark or spoil. Marking wise his hands are good. He has developed his offensive game over the year and has gained more confidence about when to leave his man. All around he is a solid defender who has continued to show development and now looks like he could play AFL football.

He did the Victorian State Screening in 09 and his jumping and endurance were very good being in the top 20% for each. His agility was below average but not by much and was solid for a big guy. His pace off the mark was poor but he showed pretty good top end speed and his first 5 metres was something he acknowledged he needed to work on. Over the last few years there have been quite a few KPDs who have had quite poor 20m times and have stepped up well. Hartigan has a reasonable 20m time and I think his initial pace should not stop him performing at AFL level. He is certainly quicker than Silvagni for instance. Hartigan is no certainty to be selected this year but if someone takes a chance on him I think they will be rewarded. He is up to 93kgs now and has a nice frame on which to put some more weight if he gets into an AFL environment. Unlike many of the 18 year olds he is also ready to step in and play now if required.


Pick 43 - Sydney

With O’Keefe and Goodes aging Sydney are going to be in need of some flair in the HFF department. Markworth if his PR is right should offer that. FWIW I accept that he is not likely to be here on the day but this is about where I rate him. Marley Williams or Schloithe are a couple of other options that Sydney might consider to fill this role.

Daniel Markworth
DOB 3/4/92 Ht 190.5 Wt 78

Markworth is getting a lot of attention and people seem to be buying him on perceived upside. Personally I am a bit more skeptical. People talk about him like he is new to football but that is not the case. He has played his entire life and has been in the TAC system the last couple of years. He played other sports like Tennis very well but he still played football but with the development he has shown over the last year or so people are assuming that he has come from nowhere. That is not the case it is simply that he is a late developer and he was able to do well this year playing against kids a year younger than himself.

With that said Markworth has shown excellent development this year and has a few really good aspects to his game. First and foremost is his pace. He ran a very slippery 2.89 in the 20m at Combine (and a 24.31 in the repeat sprint which was 5th overall) and he uses this pace well in games. He is a quick lead up forward who can create separation with his pace. He has played a fair bit as a tall forward at TAC level as well as on a flank but at AFL level he is definitely a flanker. His crumbing skills are good and he has nice clean hands below his knees. He is a bit of a swooper on crumbs and this is one of the best aspects of his game.

In the contest he is agile and elusive and can be difficult to tackle especially once he has a bit of space to work in. He likes to take players on and he does it very well. He supposedly had a sore knee at Combine and did not test for endurance (although he did do the jumps and sprint work) which I am a little skeptical about but using the eyeball test he seems to have adequate endurance for a tallish forward but he will definitely need to step it to get the best out of himself at AFL level.

Markworth measured in the top 25% in the jumps demonstrating that he can get up there. Combine this with his height which is good for a flanker and you would usually expect him to be a good mark, especially given the hype that he is getting, but this is not the case. Overall I would suggest he only has average overhead skills and his contested marking leaves a bit to be desired.

His kicking is also something which could be better. He can do some really nice things with his kicks one minute and leave you scratching your head the next. He has been compared a bit with Steve Johnson and he shares the inconsistency of his kicking with Johnson. He is a flank / outside player who averaged only 68% efficiency in the TAC which is poor for the position he played. He does have pretty good penetration on his kicking and is a reasonable shot for goal although he does seem to me to have a bit of a low connection with the ball when he takes a set shot. He has good goal sense and is capable of slotting goals from angle.

He gets credit for working hard in the forward press but he averages only 1.9 tackles per game and his work is a bit inconsistent. There are certainly others who are a fair bit ahead of him in this regard.

Markworth is an intelligent guy who is currently studying Bio-Medicine at Uni and he has demonstrated that he is willing to work on his game. I see no reason why he will not continue to improve but I don’t automatically see the increased upside over other small forwards who are going to be taken around or after him. He is a flashy player and that gets attention but there are definitely some holes and polish that needs to be applied.


Pick 44 - Carlton

Scotland is getting toward the end and give Florio a year to develop some more and I think he could step in and give the Blues a very nice replacement. The Hawks did well with Smith last year and Florio could offer the blues a similar style of player and much more cheaply than what the Hawks paid for Smith.

Michael Florio
DOB 28/2/91 Ht 188 Wt 78

I was pretty high on Florio a couple of years ago and was surprised at the time that someone didn't take a punt on him. He is a superlative athlete and a great kick and putting those two together I thought he had showed enough to warrant a rookie spot at least. That wasn't to be however and he ended up playing Perth in the WAFL. He played mostly in the ressies last year playing about 7 senior games. This year Perth has had more of a youth focus and Florio benefited from this and showed some real class. He played 20 games this year and he averaged 21.5 disposals and 6.5 marks per game.

I had originally projected Florio to be a HBFer with the way the modern game is played but he has been up on the wing in the WAFL and he probably projects to play there as well in the AFL mainly because he probably still lacks a little of the physicality that you would want in a defensive player. Hardness was apparently a significant issue in him being overlooked as an 18 year old but he has really developed in this area according to his coach. He averaged a couple of tackles a game in the WAFL which is probably a little less than you would like to see in someone with his speed and endurance but it probably is comparable with a guy like Isaac Smith whose success this year might get Florio drafted. Smith is not a physical guy either and averaged 2.5 tackles a game for the Hawks playing in a very similar role.

Like Smith, Florio has exceptional speed clocking a 2.82 over the 20m sprint and 24.13 in the repeat sprint at the State Screening. His 20m time was faster than anyone at the Combine this year where 2.86 was the quickest recorded. Unlike Smith, Florio would come into the league with near elite endurance as well as speed. He managed 15 in the beep test and has scope to improve on this as well. Florio covers a lot of ground, probably more than Smith at this stage although he does not look as quick as Smith who is more the impact player at the moment. Still Florio does accelerate very quickly and he is rarely caught when he gets into space. In the AFL there would be a fair bit of work done on improving his burst running so as to make full use of the elite speed he has.

Also like Smith, Florio has a raking kick on him and is dangerous when he gets within range of goal. He is a 60m kicker and when you combine that with his running and ball carrying ability he can get a team from one end to the other very quickly. His accuracy is good especially on his longer kicks and he as he has gotten more confident in the WAFL he has become very much a kick first player. He is not a big goal kicker finishing with only 12 goals this year but with his penetration he can be dangerous and he is a reasonable shot for goal when he gets the chance. He only had 6 behinds to go with his 12 goals demonstrating that when he gets a chance he will put it between the big sticks more often than not.

Florio is a zone breaker who got more confident as the year went on in the WAFL. Teams are going to see the impact that Smith had this year and think they could maybe pick up Florio on the cheap and get similar results from him. He has improved significantly over the last two years and addressed quite a lot of the issues that stopped him being drafted as an 18 year old. He is an elite athlete and there is still a lot of upside in him to be exploited. I would expect him to find himself onto a team somewhere this year.


Pick 45 – Port Adelaide

I originally had Danny Butcher in here but a Port friend of mine turned up his nose at that pick and said he would be very happy to get Sheridan here so Sheridan it is. Sheridan is a low frills option but he does what he needs to do and his running ability and workrate would be very handy for the Port midfield.

Tom Sheridan
DOB 28/10/93 Ht 185 Wt 76

Its easy for guys like Sheridan to slip under the radars of amateurs like me because there is not a lot of sexiness about his game. He just goes about his job without a lot of fanfare or doing much to set himself apart from the crowd. The fact is though he just keeps doing it and the results of his work are usually very good. He appears often enough that you start to pay attention to him and think "you know what, this kid can play".

Sheridan will probably start his career on a wing or back flank but as he develops physically I think he will move onto the ball. He has a name as an outside player but I think he has good potential to be an all around mid, capable of playing onball and working on the outside with equal proficiency. What he does exceptionally well at the moment is run and get to contests. The kid has elite endurance as shown in the Combine where he did a 15.54 in the beep which was just under the previous record and he was also 3rd overall in the 3km with a time of 9.57. What is good to see in a junior is that he works hard both ways. He is one of the hardest working mids defensively available this year and the team that takes him will not need to spend the time on this aspect of his game that they would on others.

Speed wise there is not a lot to write home about. He is not hugely quick (a little over 3 in the 20m) but his endurance does allow him to make good use of the pace he does have. He can go at his top speed longer than most. He was run down a few times at the Champs and when he moves to the AFL he is going to need to be more aware of this because AFL players will be quicker and will shut him down very quickly. He does however love a run and carry and this is one of the strengths of his game at the moment. He links up very well and gets to very good spots to receive. He averaged 24 disposals at game at TAC level and a lot of those were handball receives.

In the contests he will put his head over the ball when it is his turn and he wins his fair share of the ball. He played some time on ball at the centre bounce and he came away with the ball often enough to conclude that he knows his way around the packs. In fact he showed a few times that he was very good at bursting away from the packs with the ball in hand. He is not particularly agile or elusive but he tends to run good lines through packs and has pretty clean hands to collect and go. He needs to build up his lower body to get better strength over the ball but he was largely fine in this regard at junior level. He has a fairly lanky build with thin legs.

His kicking is a something which needs to be worked on. His efficiency rating at TAC level was 65% which is not great for someone who plays the way he does. He is a bit erratic with his kicking at pace and often does not seem to have great feel on his shorter kicks. He is not a bad kick but it definitely needs some work. I would put him on par with guys like Devon Smith so not a big weakness but not a selling feature either. With the ball in his hands he seems comfortable and balanced and that is something positive to work on. Around goal he is not a trick shot merchant but he seems confident, particularly with his set shot which is accurate although from 50 he would struggle.

How Sheridan develops is a little difficult to predict. I like his all around game and I could see him easily developing into a Nigel Lappin or even Simon Black type player who can run all day and influence the contests wherever they are on the ground. The AFL is also scattered with many examples of similar guys who don't develop. I think he is one of the few mids available later in the draft with elite potential but the bust potential is also pretty high. From reports he is a bit of a practical joker which is sometimes good and sometimes bad. I am going with good in this instance as it seems that when he needs to get in and work he does and his coach thought enough of him to make him captain of Calder for their final 6 games of the year. Guys who are irresponsible clowns do not get made captain.


Pick 46 - Adelaide

Adelaide need to address their clearance problems and Buchanan could help them do that. I considered going tall given who Adelaide delisted but a couple of Adelaide supporters suggested that a couple of those guys might well be rookie listed so I have not bothered with the talls this time around.

Meyrick Buchanan
DOB 16/3/93 Ht 176 Wt 71

Buchanan is not getting much comment on here but I think he will be drafted and probably before many think. He is one of the best cricketers in his age group in Australia and up until now has probably focused more on cricket than football. Notwithstanding this he declined the recent Australian U19 tour to India to test at the Combine. In addition to his cricket commitments he has also had a full suite of school commitments given that is on a full scholarship to Geelong Grammar and so did not play all that many games for Geelong in the TAC nor was he selected to play at the Champs.

Buchanan is the brother of Amon who is currently playing in Brisbane after making a name for himself at Sydney. Amon, Liam and Meyrick all played under Michael Turner at the Falcons and Turner rates Meyrick as a better prospects than his brothers. Meyrick is a midfielder who played some time up forward as a junior. I think he will be looked at though as a midfield prospect as he does lack a little as a forward. He is short, was one of the worst tested at Combine in the jumps and his testing was only average for speed. These combine to make pretty big hurdles to get over for a small forward. He has pretty good goal sense and is not a bad finisher but he does lack a few of the tricks of top shelf small forwards. He does work hard to pressure and that will win him a few friends on teams looking to improve their forward pressure.

Despite all of the above it’s entirely possible that he could start in the forward line and move to the midfield like Christensen has done for Geelong. Christensen is a pretty good comparison for Buchanan. He might develop like Amon but at the moment he is nowhere near his girth being a pretty thin guy. At Combine his testing was pretty reasonable across the board apart from his jumps which were poor. He went a smidge over 3 in the 20m, was around the top 25% in the agility and was in the top third in the beep (14.4) and the 3km. That testing might well be actually better than it looks as his other commitments may not have allowed him to prepare for the testing like others could.

On the park he has a very high football IQ especially about where and when to run to get the ball. He gets around the park very well and racks up the possessions. He played 10 games for the Falcons this year and averaged 26.2 disposals a game. Again this is all the more impressive because he did suffer a bit from a lack of experience from playing and training with his teammates because of school and cricket commitments. Take it as a given that this kid would be one of the better accumulators of the football in this draft. His skills are very good and certainly much better than Amon’s are. He is also a good decision maker and reads play very well. He has pretty quick hands and is clean below the knees. He reads the taps of his ruckman or the ball off hands up forward in crumbing situations very well.

Overall I think Buchanan has been hidden a bit this year and could be a sneaky good pick for the third round on.


Pick 47 - Brisbane

I did not plan for Boseley to fall to the Lions but he was here and after taking a KPF and a Ruck/KPF we needed a KPD. With Boseley I have concerns about his disposal and given we already have Merrett back there I am thinking we might not look at him. Still I have done the write up on him and I am going to use him damn it.

Andrew Boseley
DOB 4/9/92 Ht 192.4 Wt 75

This year I think a lot of teams will be looking for KPDers and at this stage I am starting to run out of guys I rate much at all. Personally I am not a big fan of Boseley and would take guys like Blee and Jack Frost ahead of him. However with those two gone I am going with Boseley instead of Talia because his kicking shades Talia by a little bit (not a big achievement as I would say Daniel Merrett’s kicking shades Talia by as a little bit as well).

Boseley is an overage player who is still very underdeveloped even compared against guys a year or two younger than himself. He is never going to be a big guy and in the AFL this may limit the roles he plays as he is unlikely to be able to wrestle with any of the power forwards out there. Patton could hold him off one handed and I am sure AFL players will be able to brush him aside easily if came to a test of strength. He will improve his size and strength to some extent but I am not hopeful that it would to a big extent given he is already 19 and has not shown much development there over the last year.

What Boseley does have is excellent closing speed for a KPD. He clocked in the low 2.90s at the Combine and has the endurance to go with the repeat leads of most forwards. He was in the high 14s in the beep at Combine. He is very quick off the mark for a KP but his top end speed may not be as good as some of the real speedsters out there. Realistically though it will be more than good enough and his leap is very good as well. He is not always consistent but he has shown some ability to be able to go step for step with his opponent and spoil well at the end. He is prone to having lapses especially when he gets into body on body situations or he starts looking to play off his man.

Toward the end of the year he did show some good ability to judge when to leave his man and influence the play but he was burnt fairly often when he did this over the course of the year in general. Many consider him a good judge of the ball in the air but I don’t really see that myself. I think he is an adequate judge who has the athleticism to compensate for his errors e.g. he has the speed and jump to end up with him getting a hand on a misjudged ball. Personally I think he is usually better when he is lead to the ball and then can make good corrections once the ball is in the area. Overhead his hands are okay without being great – typical KPD really. He does however like to think he is a great mark and can cheat on his opponent in order to try and take a big mark. He is very much like Harry O’Brien in this regard and like Harry O’Brien he will probably need a good defensive team around him to compensate for his mistakes.

Skills wise he has an abysmal drop of the ball on his preferred right. He lays the ball at an angle to his foot and the ball is prone to going not where it should especially under pressure. In fairness to him though the ball most often goes where it should but there is a significant number of times where it does not. In fairness to him I should say that he is a fair kick on his non-preferred left and certainly better than most other key positions in this draft.

Overall a team taking Boseley will have a fair bit of athletic talent to work with but they have a fair bit of work to do as well. They are going to need to get some meat on his bones, fix up his kicking style and make him more disciplined with his defensive work. It’s worth noting that he has only really been playing in defense this year so he should improve naturally anyway with a little more experience.


Pick 48 - Geelong

Geelong’s midfield is aging and there are going to start to be a few positions open up over the next couple of years. I have gone with Geary here who I think could definitely step up into a Rockliff type of role for a team. He was very good in the NEAFL this year and I am hoping a couple of teams paid attention. Geelong as the premiers should challenge again next year and getting a player at this stage of the draft who could step in and play if required is gravy.

Kallen Geary

DOB 30/5/91 Ht 177 Wt 75ish

Geary I think did a very sensible thing this year moving up to the Gold Coast with his girlfriend who enrolled in Bond Uni. He has been playing for the Broadbeach in the NEAFL and has been dominating. There are now 4 AFL teams competing in this competition and playing under their noses can only help you get picked up. A rookie listing is most likely but with the success recently of the small overlooked players don’t rule out the possibility of a team taking a punt on him in the real thing with the quality of the draft down.

Geary was a two time B&F winner for Bendigo in the TAC and would have to be considered unlucky to be overlooked the last two years. He has elite endurance and ran a 9.43 when tested in 09 which was 20secs better than anyone else that year. It is also 9 seconds faster than Hill did to win the 3km this year. The rest of his testing was unspectacular and I was a bit surprised that he only managed a 3.15 in the 20m. He seems to pretty good game speed which I guess could be a function of him being able to go at top pace more often than others. It might well have been though that he just tested poorly at Camp.

A player he reminds me a lot of is Tom Rockliff and I could easily see him turning into a similar type of player if he is given a chance. Both those guys are a bit on the short side, timed slow at camp and are probably more outside than in. They also dominated at TAC level, have great attitudes, are prolific ball winners and can go inside and get it if need be. Kicking skills are a common criticism of both but both are solid and have great decision making skills and vision and their kicking is improving. Geary is a left footer with okay style on the right although his ability to weight on his right is not good. Geary is probably never going to have massive hurt factor but I could see him being a big ball winner who takes good options.

He is a very smooth mover around the field who covers a lot of ground during games. He is very balanced with the ball in hand and in contested situation and he holds his feet well. He is still pretty thin despite being 20 now but I would consider him to be pretty strong for his build. He will regularly shrug bigger guys who underestimate him. He is very nice overhead for a guy his size and has good clean hands.

Overall I like Geary a lot and think a team could do a lot worse than give him a shot. He is a very smart footballer who has the running ability and commitment to play AFL football. All he needs is the opportunity.


Pick 49 – Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs lost a bit of height at the end of the season with Hall and Hudson retiring (and unretiring in the latter case). Gault gives them a big bodied target up forward who can also ruck when required. He is probably a year or two away but he has a tool kit that could interest teams and the Bulldogs are likely to be buying someone of his type in this draft so why not him.

Corey Gault
DOB 28/10/92 Ht 198 Wt 87

Gault has come from a long way back but his Swan Districts coach has said he has never seen anyone improve as much as Gault has in the last 12 – 18 months. Gault was nowhere at the beginning of the year but worked his way through the WAFL Colts to the Ressies and then to the WAFL where he had an impact. He was selected for WA as an overage player but didn’t do a great deal at the Champs. Shifter reported that he was carrying an injury at the Champs which could have had something to do with his performance. At the end of the year he was named in the WAFL Colts team of the year as the starting ruck.

I am including Gault because he is one of the few in the draft who can legitimately play both key position and ruck and with the new sub rule these types of guys have significant value. With the sub rule looking like its here to stay teams will be looking for these types and there aren’t that many of them around this year. Gault has worked very hard to present himself as a CHF option to complement the rucking side of his game and I think he has succeeded.

Gault is a good athlete who gets around the field well for a big guy. He has pretty reasonable speed off the mark with his top end speed being solid. He has pretty good agility for a big guy and excellent leap. At the Combine he finished 7th in the standing jump with 71cm. He doesn’t always make full use of his height and jump in the marking contest taking quite a few marks in front of his eyes but this is area he has worked hard on and he is improving all the time. He is not the best judge of the ball in the air but again he is improving and his hands are good. He is a factor with the ball coming into a contest and does well stepping in front of a stationary pack to mark the ball using his height and standing jump. As a KPF he will work up onto the wing to gather the ball and will then hustle back and beat his man back inside 50. His engine seems pretty good and I expect his running could be a real weapon after spending some time in an AFL environment. He marks well running with the ball and maintains balance to use the ball to good effect after that. He is not a big goal kicker at the moment but some potential is there.

He is a right footer who has pretty reasonable skills. He does need some work but technically his kicking seems fine. He needs to work on his handball skills as well but again I do not see anything to particularly worry about. His decision making is pretty good for a big guy and he seems to evaluate situations and makes decisions quickly which often big guys do not do.

In the ruck he is a bit undersized for a first ruck but pretty much the normal height for a second ruck under the new rules. He gets up and competes pretty well but his ruck technique certainly needs some work. He does not make full use of his height using a bent arm to tap rather than fully extending. There is also not a lot of subtly in his work being very much of the bash it forward and let the mids run onto it school. Still there is a bit to work with and he is certainly aggressive in the contest. He is well balanced in the ruck contest and recovers very quickly after the tap. He looks to impact the contest immediately and will follow up with tackles or contesting the ball whatever is in front of him. As a ruck he gets around the park very nicely and as he develops he could become a possession type ruck. I like the way he floats back into the hole at CHB where he uses his marking skills very well.

Gault is still very raw but he has shown great improvement this year and there is no reason to think that this improvement will not continue. In his WAFL debut he managed 17 touches, 7 marks and 1 goal which a massive return for a guy who needed a bell in the ball to find it at the beginning of the year. He has the size and athletic abilities to make it at AFL level and has the attitude and dedication to perhaps do better than that. He has a reputation for being very coachable and listening to what is said to him and acting on it. In a weak draft I would be inclined to take a punt on that sort of player.


Pick 50 - Collingwood

I really liked Fasolo last year and was annoyed when he fell into Collingwood’s lap at this stage of the draft last year. This year they could easily get a similar bargain in someone like Newnes. Collingwood have lost a couple of mids and so might be in the market.

Jack Newnes
DOB 2/4/93 Ht 184 Wt 74

Newnes I think is a bit of an underestimated player in this draft on BF. He is a wing / flanker who has played all over the field the last couple of years. At AFL I think he will become a HBFer although he has the flexibility to slot in where needed early.

What I like most with Newnes is his kicking when he has time and space. With space he has good balance and a lovely easy style on his kicks. He gets good penetration and has very nice touch on his kicks when he is kicking within his range. He makes good decisions with the ball and can get the ball to the player when the decision has been made. His kicking is one of the reasons I would like to see him behind the ball at the next level where he can use his kicking ability to full effect. He is very good with kickins as well which is a bit of an art form in itself at AFL level. Despite my preference for him behind the ball its worth noting that his delivery into 50 was also very good at the Champs and he set up a few goals for Patton in particular with very nice kicks delivered just where he needed them. Teams will probably consider this when deciding how to use Newnes.

Behind the ball Newnes also reads the play very well and is excellent at taking the ball away from the opposition whether by marking the kicks coming in, tackling or generally disrupting the player with the ball. I would compare him to Heppell this year for how he plays at the back and what he could bring to a team. He might not be that good but he is in the ballpark at least.

He had a good year last year as a bottom aged player in the TAC but one of the criticisms of him was a lack of physicality in his game. He worked hard at this during the offseason and this year and he has improved a lot in this area. He was played through the middle a lot more at TAC level and during the Champs and his inside game improved out of sight. At TAC level this year he averaged 22.8 disposals a game 8.6 of which were contested. At the Champs he played mostly on the wing but he won his fair share of the ball in tight and he put his head over the ball and attacked it when it was his turn. The improvement he has shown this year in this area is a credit too him and something I am sure the recruiters will consider when considering him.

In tight he works okay and circles the contest quite well looking to influence. He is primarily a receiver but as mentioned he will go and get it when called on. He is pretty one-sided with his handballs, with his left handball being weak and in need of a fair bit or work. On the right though he is pretty solid with his handball skills. He can be a bit rushed in contested situations and his decision making can suffer.

He is a middling athlete being neither particularly slow or quick but he does have good endurance and he has a stride that can eat up the ground when he gets out in the open. He can occasionally run himself into a bit of trouble but for the most part he has pretty good run and carry when he decides to use it. Defensively he works pretty hard and shows good chase. He averaged 3 tackles a game in the TAC but he is still not particularly physical in the tackling contest. This is something which I am sure will be worked on a bit at the next level.

Overall I like the work that Newnes has done on his game this year given that he was already pretty draftable last year. I also like that he continues to have good self awareness and recognises that he needs to improve his strength and is doing quite a lot of gym work whilst he waits for the draft to happen. I would have liked to have seen him get more of the ball at the Champs (14 dpg) which would have assured him of a higher spot in the draft order but I still think he is a good shot to be picked up maybe earlier than many expect.

Other Players of Interest to Me


David Mirra
DOB: 20/3/91 Ht 188 Wt 84

I think the Hawk supporters are hoping he slips through to the rookie draft. Personally I think someone will take a punt on him in the national draft. He is still only 20 and has shown a great deal of development since leaving the u18 ranks the year before last. He won the Box Hill reserves B&F last year and has stepped up again this year to be a very important defender for the seniors. He is a medium defender who shows some real dash going the other way. He is most comfortable on mediums and smalls but is capable of playing as a third tall if needed. He has done shut down roles on Saad and Lynden Dunn at different times this year.

Mirra has a lean athletic build and is a smooth mover around the field. He is built like a middle distance runner and that impression is reinforced when you see him on the park. Unfortunately for all that he looks like an athlete he did not test very well at the State Screening. Purely with the eyeball test I would have thought that he would likely to go under 3 for the 20m but not under 2.90. At the testing though he was woefully slow off the mark but once he got up to speed though he was good. He finished below 50% in the 20m sprint but in the top 12% in the 30m repeat sprint. In the 20m he was in the bottom 18% over the first 5 metres. His endurance testing was also much worst than I anticipated being in the bottom quarter of those tested. He certainly plays better than he tests and hopefully a team will take those scores and think what they could do with him once he got particularly his endurance up to an acceptable level.

He is a good leap (and tested that way) and contests well in the air. He plays tall for his size and shows himself as a good judge of the ball in flight. He has pretty good but not elite hands above his head and below his knees and he is a disciplined spoiler of the ball.

He shows good balance in contested situations and holds his feet well. His decision making and skills have improved a great deal since his junior days and they look like they will continue to do so. He is very neat with the ball and usually makes good decisions. He links up well offensively and gives his team some real dash of the back flank. He is the kind of ball carrier who can be a really nice weapon against zones. He can miss targets under pressure but is usually pretty reliable with the ball. He has reasonable penetration on his kicks.

Overall there is a lot to like about Mirra given the amount of his improvement over the last 18 months. I would think he is a fair chance to go in the national draft and if not would be a good bet to get snapped up as a rookie.


Alex Woodward
DOB 11/6/93 Ht 174.5 Wt 80

Clearances these days are hugely important to winning football games and Woodward is one of the better extractors available this year. He lead the TAC in contested possessions (15 per game) and clearances (7 per game) and showed that he could do the same at the Champs where he averaged 10 contested possessions per game. There are a few things which need work with his game but being able to win clearances should get him drafted.

The Combine was a bit of a mixed bag for Woodward. It was not a surprise when he measured short of his listed 179cm height but measuring almost 5cm below his listed height did not help him and puts him firmly into the height of guys who struggle to be drafted. On the positive side though he tested really well in sprints especially in the 20m where he did a great time of 2.89 which was 7th overall. Woodward looks quickish on the park but 2.89 would have surprised quite a few and caused a few to take another look at him. His beep test was solid going over 14 but for some reason his 3km time was very poor. Something might have happened there that I don't know about but take it as a given he will need to up his endurance base when he gets into the AFL.

Woodward is a short powerfully built guy but he is a pretty smooth mover around the ground. He does not get a huge amount of uncontested ball and he needs to improve his work without the ball but this might come as his endurance base improves. What he has done which adds to his attractiveness as a draft prospect is make himself into a small forward prospect. He reminds me a lot of Christensen from Geelong who is similar in height and ball winning ability. Like Christensen I could easily see Woodward starting up forward before moving into middle as he gets experience and builds his engine.

Woodward is a very good mark for his size and he judges the ball very well in the air. He uses his body well and jumps at the ball strongly. He is also strong around the ball and can hold the man off the ball well. He is not very tricky when he gets the ball but he is a reasonable finisher when he gets the chance. His set shot is well balanced but I would not say his accuracy is great.

Through the middle of the ground he is a handball first and second and then consider kicking before handballing again type of player. When he does kick it’s usually a short to medium distance and he does not often look downfield. He is not the most accurate kick but again his style largely seems okay. His midfield work is often compared to Luke Ball and this is someone to think of when you want to consider what his kicking is like. Like Ball though his onball work is top shelf. He burrows into the bottom of packs and chases the ball with great tenacity. He says he likes to hit the ball with movement but more often than not he is camped at the feet of the rucks and has to extract it from there. He is very good at getting the ball free from the contest by hand although it’s not always to the most attacking option. His hands are pretty quick and he clears it out quickly.

When he doesn't get the ball himself he works hard to tackle the opposition player or block for his own player. He is a very good tackler and tackles with force concentrating more on hitting the opposition rather than just wrapping up ball. He is a very team oriented player who does all the little 1%ers that coaches love and are often overlooked by supporters. He is good defensively in contested situations but in the open field he needs some work and again I think as his endurance base improves so should this aspect of his game. He is prepared to work hard and as he builds his engine he could start up forward as a defensive forward before moving to the middle.

His TAC manager described him as "one of the more outstanding young men that I have met and has been a pleasure to have worked with". Some of these young blokes have a pretty inflated opinion of themselves and being a good guy is a point of distinction that can only help him get picked up.


Marley Williams
DOB 22/7/93 Ht 181 Wt 85

Williams like many in this draft is probably on the cusp of being drafted. He has some nice features in his game but also a few holes. Whether a team likes his good features more than those of other guys in contention will determine whether he is drafted. Williams had a reasonable but not outstanding Champs averaging 16.3 disposals a game playing up forward and through the midfield. He is not a big goal scorer but is reasonable around goals.

Firstly the good stuff. I like his strength over the ball and ability to hold comparable sized players out of the contest when playing up forward. He has reasonable hands above his head as shown by the highlight reel one hander against SA in WA’s final game. I also like his aggressiveness. When the ball is in his area he hunts it and the opposition well. His top gear is probably only average but he accelerates very quickly and can shut down players with a burst of pace that often catches them unaware. He is not slow at top speed but he is not quick either and has a bit of a short stride. He likes to get out and run and carry and he does it well although I would like to see him improve his bouncing. At AFL level as well he might be a candidate to be run down a bit but he seems to have pretty good awareness of where defenders are in those types of situations.

He is smart and composed on the ball and takes good option whether to handball, kick or just to tap on. He is not rushed and backs himself and will ride out a tackle if needed to get the ball where it needs to go. He is pretty clean and has the ability to hit the ball at pace, collect the ball and come out the other side. He has good tackling technique and hits hard enough for the opposition to feel them. Williams seems a team player to me often doing the 1%ers to free up his players and make their jobs easier. He will tackle, spoil and shepherd and not give away frees doing so.

On the negatives he probably does lack a little class with his disposal. He has good penetration with his left foot and can deliver some really nice looking flat kicks but he does seem to lack a little feel on his kicks. He will miss targets by small margins just because his weighting is slightly off. He likes to kick around the corner quite a bit and can be a little hit and miss with that. The hold on his set shot also looks anything but comfortable. He has a hold a lot like Fev’s in that he holds the ball with a hand on top of the ball. I think he loses some penetration with his current set shot set-up. On the run though he seems balanced with his kicking and there is potential there to iron out his kicking as, especially with his field kicking, there is not a lot wrong technically.

I like his potential because he seems like a hard worker who would really benefit from improved endurance in his game. He fades in and out of games at bit at the moment but when he is in the game he can make things happen. He influences the game in a way positive for his team and if you could up his endurance and allow him to influence it more consistently I think you could get a steal later in the draft.


Jack Crisp
DOB 2/9/93 Ht 190 Wt 83

Crisp is a lanky wing / HFFer who has one stand out feature which stands a good chance of getting him drafted and that is his tackling. In the TAC this year he averaged 7 tackles per game to lead the way in this category. He started from a long way back this year even at club level but through hard work he has really made a name for himself. Champion Data have developed a new stat for the coaches called pressure acts and they started taking it this year although the results have not been widely distributed. The Herald Sun reported that Crisp led the way in this stat category at the Champs with 15 pressure acts per match. Crisp basically gets out there and works his butt off defensively and makes things happen.

He makes tackles as noted and has a nice burst of pace that he uses to close down players. Often it will be guys who time quite a bit quicker than him. He is very good at wrap around tackles and he regularly makes a play on the ball and forces a spillage. In addition to his tackling he also positions himself well in passing lanes where he can disrupt handballs and with his height he is hard to get over. He reacts very quickly in these types of situations and makes good plays on balls that are in his area.

In other aspects of the game he is probably only average. He plays mostly outside but tends to win most of his possessions in contested situations. In the TAC for instance he averaged 19 possessions a game of which 11 were contested. For a predominantly outside player that ratio is not good. He does not get open enough to enable his teammates to make easy use of him going forward. He is a nice mover and there is no reason why he shouldn't get more of it when you consider that he has pretty reasonable endurance. I think it’s probably just a factor of him concentrating more on the defensive aspects of his game and not working as hard the other way to get open. It’s a bit of the opposite to most of the kids in his age group.

For an outside player he has pretty quick hands and can gather and get rid of it very quickly. His kicking can be a little hit and miss. He is a left footer who one minute can rip out a nice flat bullet and the next miss a target by a fair margin. His kicking style is a little disjointed but his kicking has improved a fair bit over the year and he is starting to get more of the good kicks in his game and less of the bad. His goal kicking can be a little hit and miss as well and often strikes the ball at varying heights in the drop which contributes to the inconsistency.

I think he might start his AFL career as a HFFer where his chase and tackle skills can help in his team's forward press. As far as going for goal goes he is a good mark and would be difficult to contain for an opposition HBFer. He has good height for the position and finished in the top 10 in the running jump at Combine. He is great at floating in front of contests and takes marks at full extension making him difficult to spoil. Speaking of the Combine I thought he would have tested better for pace given he plays with a really nice burst of pace. There was no evidence of that burst in the 20m sprint and although his repeat sprints were a fair bit better they were not what I expected. He did test well for endurance though although that will still need to improve a bit for AFL purposes.

I think his results might be a bit like the speed results of Sidebottom who tested appallingly for speed but plays like he has plenty in game situations. Crisp similarly plays with good pace and has a nice swerve to complement his smooth running style. I think Crisp presents as something different for teams and he would be a good chance of being picked up.


Aseri Raikiwasa
DOB 18/4/93 Ht 191.5 Wt 95

Raikiwasa was one guy who I really liked at the Champs and I was surprised he didn't get more mentions on BF especially given that the KPD crop are not very strong and a lot of teams are in need of KPD help. I don't follow the SANFL particularly closely but reports are that he was pretty poor in the second half of the year and had some OP which affected him and prevented him from testing at State Screening. My comments here are going to be very positive and are based on what I saw at the Champs where he played a lot better by the sounds than he did in the SANFL.

Raikiwasa has a great build and should develop into a very powerful man. He has broad shoulders and a deep chest. He is carrying a bit more weight than is common for a junior but he carries it easily and does not look pudgy or muscle bound. He has good body strength and uses it well in contested situations whether the ball is in the air or on the ground. He plays taller than his 192cm and has very long arms which I guess reinforces this appearance.

He played both up forward and down back at the Champs but he was much more impressive in defence. Up forward he shows good strength but his leading is not great. Similarly he is marking is not a strength of his game and he spills as many as he takes. He does also not have the elusiveness that he sometimes thinks he has and can be tackled when trying to take on the man. Up forward he tries to do this more than in defence. When he has a shot at goal he has reasonable accuracy.

Personally I like him best at FB. He has the strength to compete well with the forwards who like to wrestle and seems to have enough speed to go with most forwards. As mentioned he didn't test at State Screening and I would have been interested in his speed results if he was fully fit. The OP he had might well have affected his speed off the mark and ability to stay with quick forwards but he has the jump and long arms to fly with taller opponents. From what I saw though he stayed with his man well at Champs. I liked the discipline he showed at FB. He managed to spoil consistently and gets the fist into contests which you would think he was out of. I don't think he reads the ball particularly well coming in but at FB he can be lead to the ball by his opposition.

His kicking looks good, with him usually having a nice style with good balance and feel on his kicks. He is however prone to kicking it a bit too often to the opposition. This happens most regularly after he has spilt a mark or is otherwise flustered or under pressure. I think there is a bit to work with with his kicking and if he gets into a full time environment he could be turned into a nice kick from deep in defence. He doesn't mind getting involved in the clearances when they are in his area and he can influence the contest positively throwing his ample frame around.

At the Champs I thought he was one of the better FBs on show and he impressed me more than the more highly credentialed Talia. I think he could develop into a player much like his fellow south sea islander in Mal Michael who was about the same height as Raikiwasa. He is now probably a late selection or rookie pick but for teams looking for a development FB prospect like the Lions or Saints he could be a very nice bargain buy.


John McKenzie
DOB 3/6/93 Ht 177 Wt 82

Honestly I am having trouble working out why there has not been more love for McKenzie. The Taswegian was the Div 2 Player of the Champs this year and was selected as an All Australian. He picked up 21 possessions per game and was the Capt of the Tasmanian team that won the Div 2 title. I often hear of athleticism concerns but then he went to State Screening and performed very well which should have dispelled most of those worries.

There is a school of thought that he is a bit short but he measured in at 177 and is basically the same height as Adams and Nelson and has 5cms on Devon Smith. He is a footballer first and foremost but I think he has shown at the State Screening that he also has the athleticism to compete at AFL level. Pace was a concern with him but he managed a very respectable 3.02 which was better than I expected. I thought he might struggle there. In the beep he managed an elite 15.15 which shows he definitely has the ability to get to contests in the AFL and his agility score of 8.30 was also very good compared to those he will be competing with for a draft spot. He also showed a nice running jump which was probably not as relevant for the position he will play at AFL level but it again reinforces that he has been substantially undersold as an athlete.

On the park McKenzie is a hard nosed inside midfielder who is also a more than capable small forward. He has a good nose for the ball and good clean hands. He works well in the phone box and makes good decisions under pressure. Up forward he shows good goal sense and crumbing ability. This is a little hard to explain but in close I really like his first step. He reacts very quickly in most situations and uses a long first step to clear his defender if he has the ball or to shut down the ball carrier if he doesn’t. That first step is dynamite for him and really allows him to do a lot of good work.

Around the ground he is a hard worker and has solid skills. He does not have a lot of X factor about him but he covers a lot of ground and gut runs well. He is already mature in the body and looks like he could easily step into AFL next year. On the field he is a leader who not only leads by example but also directs traffic around the ground. He seems to have a very good sense of what is happening and what he and his teammates should be doing. He looks like an onfield coach at times. He also works well for his teammates with blocking and tackles pretty well in close.

I have no doubts if McKenzie was from Victoria or WA he would be getting a lot of attention and be being talked up as a second rounder probably. As it is I think he presents as a very good bargain later in the draft. I lot less well credentialed guys will be taken ahead of him. McKenzie I think will not disappoint the team who picks him up.


Larry Owen
DOB 8/8/92 Ht 196 Wt 83

Owen is more likely to be a rookie option this year and I am hoping that Brisbane take a very close look at him. We tend to recruit a lot in Tasmania and Owen has a few things going for him which stand out from the crowd.

Owen has a massive engine and can run all day. He ran a 15.10 in the beep test at the State Testing and that is exceptional for anyone. It’s worth noting that before this year the Combine record for the beep test was 15.8 so its fair to say that no KP has gotten near his score before. He needs to work out a bit more how to use his running ability to best advantage ala Reiwoldt but it is a weapon that teams could use at either end.

Owen played a fair bit of CHF for Tassie this year but is probably best known as a KPD. He has grown a couple of centimetres this year and is one of the few very pleasant surprises in the measuring with most heights tending to be overstated rather than understated. Owen is getting close to the height where teams might consider using him as a second ruck given the new rules especially if he grows a little more. He has an excellent leap and tested in the top 20% at State Testing in both the jump disciplines so he should be able to compete against quite a few of the second rucks going around. His endurance would be a big asset in the middle of the ground allowing him to run this opposition into the ground and link up with his players going forward.

His pace off the mark would be a bit of a concern for teams considering playing him close to goal as he can take some time to get moving. Once moving though he has good top end speed and his 30m repeat sprint results were very good being in the top 20% of those tested. He was in the bottom third over the first 5 metres but he can really pick things up once he gets his big frame going. Both his speed and his endurance indicate to me that he would be better as a CHF or CHB at AFL level. His agility is pretty good for a big guy as well.

He played as an overaged player this year and showed some definite improvement in his kicking. His style varied from kick to kick last year but he seems more consistent this year. He has good penetration on his kicking and he can find a long target well. His intermediate kicking and handballing still need work but I would be confident that these could be sorted once he got into a full time environment especially given the improvement already seen over the last year. One thing which has not improved this year is his physique. He is still very thin and maybe looks even thinner than last year. Again though get him into a full time environment and fill him up with protein shakes and hours in the gym and he should bulk up a bit. Its unlikely that he will ever be a massive guy though but putting on too much weight might take away from his running ability which is his main weapon.

Being a legit 196, having his running power and showing development this year I would be prepared to give Owen a shot.


Brodie Mihocek
DOB 4/2/93 Ht 192 Wt 83

The biggest issue I saw for Mihocek going into the Combine I thought would be his height. He looked a bit shorter than his listed 191 to me. Turns out I was wrong. He had many, many more problems than that with the testing. It turned out his measure was fine coming in at 191.6. It’s a shame some of his other tests virtually killed any chance of him getting picked up as to be he looked like a pretty solid prospect on the field.

Looking at him play I foresaw him as a very nice third tall defender who is able to play off his man and float in to influence contests. He judges the ball very well in the air and loves to fly for marks. He has excellent, strong hands and even when he doesn’t mark the ball he controls the fall of the ball to the advantage of his team. He does like a free run at the ball however and will usually shy away from a wrestling match. Whilst he does shy away form wrestling situations he is strong for his size and he uses that strength well in contested situations to clear space for himself, maintain his feet and make tackles.

One of the things I like most about Mihocek is his composure on the ball. He has good awareness of where everyone is around him and he rarely panics with the ball. He evaluates situations quickly and then takes pretty good options and backs himself. I like that calm composure in my backmen. He can play on talls or smalls and is capable following someone well up onto the wing without looking out of place or uncomfortable.

Mihocek is a reasonable but not great kick and is something which will be worked on. He needs to flatten out his delivery a bit and add some zip. It is not bad by any means but merely middle of the pack and you probably want a bit better than that coming from a third tall type. His handballing is good and an attacking option for him and he is a bit more of a handballer than kicker at the moment. He averaged 16.6 possessions a game at the Champs which is good for a defender but 9 of those were contested. I think he needs to up his uncontested possession count and work harder to get open and link up coming out of defense. This could happen naturally as his endurance base improves.

So everything is good right? Well no. On the park it’s obvious that he needs to improve his endurance but this is not uncommon for underage KPDers. He actually tested okay for endurance coming in at 14. This was adequate for a defender and shows there is something to work with. His pace on the other hand looks adequate in the games I have seen and it was a surprise to me just how poorly he tested. He was a distant last in both the 20m sprint and repeat sprint at the Combine. His 20m time of 3.38 was the worst I have ever seen. His jumps were also poor. Was there an injury? That is his only hope I think as you cannot have a KPD with those kind of pace issues.


Piva Wright
DOB 28/6/93 Ht 189 Wt 97

Wright is already a big powerful lad and he uses his superior strength to monster his opposition at junior level. Quite frankly looking at him I think he will be doing the same at AFL level in a couple of years. He is not just a man amongst boys he has the tools to translate his game to the AFL. He is a genuine utility capable of playing at both ends or even in the middle of the ground if need be. I think he ends up as a third tall defender in the AFL.

He is a bit undersized to play as a key position at AFL level but he has excellent athleticism that I think will allow him to match up on third talls. He rucked at times for Vic Country and his great leap was there for the recruiters to get a look at. I think that was a very smart move by the Vic Country coaching staff and might help get him drafted. He also took some kick ins and showed he is a pretty reasonable kick of the ball. In field play he tends to panic a bit with the ball under pressure and hand ball it off a bit too much. When pressured he also does not always take the best option. I am a bit concerned about this as I see this as an area that is difficult to teach. Up forward he is a pretty accurate kick for goal and has good length. He is not terribly tricky with the ball but if he gets it he can slot it through.

He had a solid but unspectacular championships but seems to be finishing the year strongly in the TAC. He has had some 30 possession games this year so he can find it. I find him a very interesting prospect and one that could go anywhere in the draft. He has some talents that an AFL team could fall in love with and it only takes one team to really rate him for him to jump up the ladder.


Lachie Neale
DOB 22/10/93 Ht 177 Wt 77

He will be hoping that the tide has turned and teams start to snap up the <180cm guys again. My two big concerns with Neale when evaluating him were his height which I thought might come in under 177 and his speed which I questioned. At Combine he actually did pretty well on both fronts. He measured in a tick over the listed 177 tested very well in the jumping showing he could play taller and he showed nice speed coming in smack bang on 3 in the 20m sprint. His other tests were fine with a beep test of just over 14 showing some need for development but there is enough there to reassure clubs that he can get it up to the required level.

Neale is a footballer’s footballer who has improved greatly over the course of the year. Recruiters usually like the guys who finish the year strongly and Neale is certainly one of those. He came back from the seniors to play in the SANFL U18s finals for Glenelg and he dominated, relishing the chance to match up again on guys his own age. In the GF he was BOG in a losing side racking up 42 disposals including 10 clearances. After a performance like that I think someone will take a punt on him remembering how everyone passed on Rockliff a few years ago after a similar performance in the TAC GF.

Neale is an inside midfielder who competes hard for the ball showing great determination burrowing into packs to extract the ball. He reads the ball off hands very well and gets to the right spots. He does not have particularly quick hands nor are they especially clean but he does do an okay job when he gets his hands on the ball. He is much like Rockliff in this regard as he uses his superior play reading ability to compensate for below ideal hands. He has chunky legs and a low centre of gravity and he often demonstrates nice ability to maintain balance in the contest.

His kicking is pretty good usually but he can be a little inconsistent with some kicks looking great and others pretty ordinary. He is competent on both feet and shows good penetration when he has time and gets hold of it. There is a bit to work with there although some polish is required. This is not uncommon for junior players and for an inside mid I have to say his disposal efficiency was very good.

He floats up forward fairly regularly and gets quite a lot of crumbing opportunities with his ability to read ball off hands but his finishing ability leaves a fair bit to be desired. He creates quite a few chances for himself but he misses too many shots that he should get.

All up this is probably coming across as one of the more negative reviews I have done but I really do like Neale. I like his determination and desire for the ball. He leads the players around him and they follow. His skills are a little inconsistent but with some work I think they should become good. He is a footballer and one with good character to boot. In the latter stages of this draft teams could certainly do worse than taking a punt on these types of guys.


Danny Butcher
DOB Ht: 183cm Wt: 73 kg

Butcher is the brother of Port’s John but whereas John is a tall key position forward Danny is definitely a midfielder. There is about 14 or 15cm in height difference between the two of them.

There were high hopes coming into this year after he starred in the TAC finals last year as a bottom aged player and being mentioned with Heppell as the most influential players on the ground. Unfortunately for him though he had offseason OP issues which really set him back. He played quite a bit of country football early in the year before getting back to Gippsland in the TAC. He was selected for Vic Country at the Champs but he was very quiet and had minimal influence. After the Champs though he really picked things up and finished the year strongly. So strongly in fact that he managed to get second in the Morrish Medal which is a great result for him and should have gotten him some positive attention

Butcher plays with pretty good endurance and pace although he tested only average for both at the State Screening. In game situations he seems very quick and has the endurance to make use of it. At the moment he is a hard at it inside accumulator who has reasonable but not great skills. He maybe lacks a little of the hurt factor on his kicking that you would like to see. I like the potential for him to develop his outside game and use his run and carry skills more and I think these will come with time and better endurance. Like his brother he is a very nice mark of the ball and he plays taller than his height. On the ground his hands are fairly clean although not as quick as some.

He is the son of a coach and has a reputation as a solid citizen and a good leader on the football field. Overall it is a bit hard to figure where he will go in the draft. He has some nice features that teams could love but equally his OP (and shoulder reco last year) could scare more than a few. His testing was also not as good as I expected.


Players I Don’t Rate that Everyone Else Does

Talia – makes Merrett look like an elite kick.

Bolger – can’t jump, no influence around the ground, outmuscled by Grundy and tap work overrated.

Bootsma – he is a KPD who measured in under 190cm tall. Pass.

Yeo – struggled to step up at the Champs. Don’t hate him but I am far from convinced. Given a bath by Murdoch who is rated a lot lower by many.

Forster – another I don’t mind but there are a lot about the same level as him imo that I rated higher. Not particularly athletic but a good occasionally inconsistent kick. Hands similarly good but prone to occasional fumbles.

Hill – athlete not a footballer and does not seem to be willing to work on his game. Needs one of those footballs for the blind with bells in it to find it.

Clay Smith – good endurance but doesn’t do anything else much that I rate. Poor awareness of what is around him and a very ordinary kick for someone who will make his living kicking the ball. I accept he will be taken probably from about pick 20 on but that doesn’t mean I need to include him.

Waldhuter – doesn’t get enough of it for me and I have concerns about his ability to step up to the next level.

Queenslanders

Sam Michael
DOB 5/7/93 Ht 200 Wt 93

After seeing Michael play earlier in the year I had pretty much written him off as a draftable prospect. It was clear that he didn't have the height to play ruck in the AFL and he was not a good enough key position to warrant consideration. Then a funny thing happened - I looked at the measures from the State Screening and Michael was listed not at 196 as I expected but at 199.5 cm. Those 3.5cm make a massive difference to the chances of him being drafted whether in the national draft or as a rookie. Suddenly Michael needs to be assessed as a legitimate ruck prospect and as a ruck he looks like a reasonable prospect.

Michael was a Cairns junior who moved to Brisbane last year and had a great year for Redlands last year and he was picked for the AIS. This year though he didn’t play much and when he did he was generally uninspiring. Even he himself conceded that he was too short to ruck at AFL level and so he played as a key position both the down back and up forward. He tried very hard and he had a few highlights but overall he seemed to lack the football nous to play as a key position. He lacked perhaps a little pace and did not react quickly enough at the back and struggled to get separation up forward. He has very nice hands in the marking contest but when the ball is constantly coming in on your head you cannot expect to consistently take marks against good opposition.

The best games he had this year were the few in which he played in the ruck. With Kolka and Cabrera in the team, Michael didn't get to do much ruck work at the Champs but with everything going south the Qld coaching staff finally threw him into the ruck against NT. The result was that Qld finally started to get their act together and Michael put in a best on ground in the Qld win. Similarly Michael played only his third game for Redlands this year in round 19 when he played as the number 1 ruck. Against an experienced Mt Gravatt rucking duo Michael was great and earned a NEAFL rising star nomination. He was superb in the ruck contest, provided great support around the ground and used the ball well.

As a ruckman, Michael gets to use his running ability more than he can as a key position. He gets to contests and offers himself as a link-up option. His contested marking is very good through the middle of the ground and he regularly influences play in a positive way for his team. His kicking still needs a fair bit of work and his decision making process was described to me as grabbing it and kicking it as far as he could. It is the lack of development in his football IQ that has concerned many and the fact that he looked to have regressed if anything this year playing as a key position.

I see Michael as a rookie prospect most probably. He is a strong aggressive player with good athleticism and who is a real professional off the field. He is meticulous with his preparation and recovery and he is always looking for ways to improve his game. The kid wants it bad and is prepared to do everything he can to make it. It's this kind of attitude which will encourage teams to give a marginal guy a chance. With his measure Michael can legitimately play ruck and that is a game changer for him.


Sam Cabrera
DOB 23/3/93 Ht 203 Wt 98

There has been a fair bit of talk about the Lions taking Mitch Brewer but if I am pick a speculative ruck I am taking Cabrera. Cabrera is virtually no chance of being taken in the national draft and probably only an outside rookie chance but I really like his potential and he is a Qlder so I am giving him a mention. Cabrera is a Qld rookie search player who came originally from a basketball background. He played at the Champs this year and made an impression on me. Its worth noting that he did not play out the year with Aspley and I am assuming it was because of injury. He has been named in the preliminary U18 Qld for next year so if he is not picked up this year we will be seeing him running around at the Champs next year.

Cabrera is a raw, big guy who I watched closely in the SA game this year. I thought he beat Huppatz comfortably and broke even with Grundy early and probably got the better of him late. Grundy was able to push Bolger around when SA played WA but Cabrera handled Grundy easily and showed the strength that his frame suggests he should have. Cabrera I thought controlled his tap work the best of any of the rucks playing that day and did very well giving his mids first crack at the ball. He has good awareness of where his mids are around him.

He is not a big around the ground threat at the moment but he has some potential in this regard if he can up his endurance base. He is very much a burst player at the moment and his engine needs a lot of building up. Apart from that though his athleticism is top shelf for such a big guy. He has an excellent jump and good pace. He moves across the ground well and his agility is good for such a big guy. His lateral movement is good and in the telephone box he works well. He is a presence on the field and influences the play when he is around the ball. He recovers quickly from his tap work and although he doesn't scramble for the ball much he is a solid tackler if the opposition get it.

Cabrera will occasionally drift forward and he is a presence up forward given his height and jump. He is not a great mark of the ball but he can provide a contest that allows his small men to work at his feet. When he does clunk one his set shot technique is not the most convincing but he is not the worst shot for goal in the world. He has some potential as a ruck who can get forward but he needs a lot of work on his game.

I have heard a few whispers about his attitude and application and this is something he needs to dispel if he is going to be picked up either this year or next. He has great size and a lot of potential but he is still very raw and coming from a long way back so if he is not prepared to listen and do the work the chances of him becoming anything useful is next to nil. He needs to pay attention to what his coaches tell him and knuckle down. If isn't picked up this year and went back and put in the work I could see him dominating at the Champs next year and teams cursing they didn't pick him up when they could have gotten him for nothing.


Mitch Brewer
DOB 31/7/92 Ht 204 Wt 110

Brewer has gotten a bit of a mixed review amongst NEAFL watchers. Some think he is a great prospect and others think he is overhyped on BF and there are better prospects out there. What everyone agrees on is that Brewer is a massive man who is aggressive and makes his presence felt on the AFL field. He is only 19 but if he is picked up by someone he will come into the competition already one of the biggest guys out there. His size and style has been compared to Mumford and whilst he is nowhere near that level yet it gives you a fair idea of what type of player we are dealing with.

Brewer started the year in the level below the NEAFL and according to one NEAFL watcher he was pretty bloody ordinary and did nothing to suggest that he would be getting draft consideration by year end. Brewer benefited from a severe lack of ruck options at Broadbeach but once he got his chance he grabbed it and showed excellent development over the course of the year. He played the last 12 games of the year and was in the best about a half dozen times so his work was certainly appreciated by the Broadbeach coaching staff. He was named Broadbeach's best first year player in the end of season awards.

He is a former rugby player who has about 4 years experience now so he is not a complete novice. Notwithstanding that he is still a massively raw prospect. As you might expect from a rugby player he brings a lot of physicality to his game. He will crash and bash into the opposition ruck and likes dishing it out. His ruckwork has improved a lot over the year and he now some games where his ruckwork is very good. He is not a big factor around the ground but shows some pretty good skills below his knees.

Brewer often rests up forward when he is not rucking and he has improved in this area as he has gone on as well. He is a solid mark of the ball and he can clunk them. He uses his size mostly to secure his mark rather than being a big leader at the ball. He is a capable goal kicker with decent penetration. He is not a big goal kicker but he is a fairly regular contributor on the scoreboard.

Brewer did not get an invite to State Screening which gives you an indication that there has not been as much interest in him as you would think from BF. There is also cause to have concerns that poor judgement might run in his family bordering on insanity. His old man appears to post on BF and he is a Collingwood supporter. Hopefully such poor judgement has skipped a generation in Mitch's case and the child abuse that is being forced to support Collingwood was not inflicted on him


NSW Scholarship Players

Brisbane

Richard Newell
DOB 23/3/93 Ht 186 Wt 82

Newell is a NSW Scholarship player for the Lions who has moved to Brisbane this year and as such the Lions are committed to giving him a roster spot next year (whether on the main list or as a rookie). Personally I think he has done enough to get a main list spot but it may suit the team more for him to start as a rookie. He has been playing for the Lions reserves all year as a top up player and has gotten a few mentions amongst the best. He missed a couple of Champs games when the Lions asked him to play reserves instead but in the games he played he was invariably in the best couple for Qld and if he had played all the games I think he probably would have been awarded the medal for Qld.

He is capable of playing all over the ground but is getting a name for himself as a run with player who can get plenty of it himself. At the Champs he invariably got the best opposition midfielder and he did a great job restricting the influence of his match up on the game. He held guys like Wingard and Jed Anderson whilst getting 20 or more possessions himself. With Wingard he went with him both up forward and through the midfield. Newell went with him step for step and when Wingard did manage to get the ball he was quickly shut down. Chad did a few nice things which demonstrated his class but going the other way Newell also helped Qld out on occasions as well.

Athletically Newell is right up there with great endurance and very good speed as well. He placed nationally in the 800m and 1500m. He has started preseason training with the Lions and has looked very good in the track work. Last week he won the 3km run in a time which was better than anyone ran at the Combine this year and would have been second all time. His skills do need polishing as does his decision making but I do think he reads the play well and gets himself into good spots to influence the play. He needs to work on his game but I do like what we have to work with.

Bloody Collingwood

Jarrod Witts
DOB 13/10/92 Ht 207 Wt 113

Witts has the Collingwood fans all a-tingle with excitement and as per usual they are overrating their own (admittedly they are not alone in having that failing). I have watched a bit of him on tape and live against Vic Metro and if you gave me a choice after the Metro game I would have taken Cope who is marginal as whether he will be selected or not. I thought Witts got gifted with a lot of taps in that game that could easily have gone to Cope who I think had the cleaner ruck work and moved better around the ground.

That is not to say there is not a lot of potential in Witts as there is. He is a massive man being both very tall (even for a ruck) and very solidly built. If anything I would like to see him trim down a bit as this could help him get around the ground better and cause less wear and tear on his body. At the Champs he had his knee heavily strapped and he did seem to favour it. The strapping was gone in later VFL games so maybe it was nothing but it is those kinds of joint injuries that could plague a player of his size. It is worth noting that he also missed all of 2010 with stress fractures in his back.

One area of his game which is exceptional for a ruckman is his handballing in the contest. He is fairly clean below his knees and when he gets the ball he makes excellent handball decisions. He is patient, does not panic when he is in the grasp of a tackler, frees his arms well, maintains balance with his strength, evaluates the situation quickly and then executes the handball very well. This really is a feature of his game and is something which he does too regularly to be considered a fluke.

Whilst his handballing is excellent his kicking is a bit hit and miss. He is a left footer who can use his right. He usually tries to kick within himself and does not have much in the way of penetration that I have seen. His drop can get away from him at times and his kicking style look awkward. At other times there seems nothing wrong with it. Kicking for goal he seems to have a comfortable approach for his set shot. With his height he gets a fair few marks but rarely gets off the ground with his jumping for the ball. Above his head he is very hit and miss with his hands and often he does not extend to use his full height thus allowing shorter players to have a play at the ball. He is improving in this regard I think as well as using his body up forward.

Witts is not a great mover around the ground but when the ball is in his area he attacks it aggressively and makes some good plays. He is good over short distances but he will struggle to cover the ground needed of rucks in the AFL. He makes himself available well but is not a big mover around the ground. He moved to Victoria immediately after the Champs and played in the Collingwood VFL team having at least one BOG game where he ended up with 3 goals and 15 possessions. He is an interesting prospect given his size but he is far from assured of making it in the AFL.


Michael Hartley
DOB 7/6/93 Ht 196 Wt 94

This is Collingwood’s other scholarship player this year and if you offered me a choice between the two I would be taking Hartley. Honestly I probably rate him as the best FB prospect in this draft and I would have no trouble taking him in the top 20. The kid has the size, speed and defensive instincts to become a top shelf AFL full back.

Again I have not seen a huge amount of him apart from seeing him live against Vic Metro when he played on Patton. In that game he absolutely dominated Patton for three quarters completely taking him out of the game. Patton had two possessions up until three quarter time both being marks on the wing close to being in the back half. Hartley went step for step with the top rated Patton, was disciplined in how he played him and spoiled everything that got close. He left Patton a couple of times to mark the ball himself and showed great judgment of the ball in the air. He has excellent closing speed and a huge leap to go with his very nice height. Before taking up AFL a few years ago he was a nationally ranked high jumper. As a shut down full back he looks as good as you will get.

Hartley is very disciplined at the back and is not a big possession winner. He could very well follow in the footsteps of Presti in this regard. Still when he does get it he is a reasonable user of the ball. His skills are pretty good and I have not seen anything to make me question his option taking. As he becomes more confident there is nothing to suggest that he could not improve his run off and involvement in the offensive side of the game.

He has played mainly as a back but he has been a capable CHF when he has been asked to play there at the Champs and for his club. His workrate up forward is very good and he presents well with good quick leads. His hands are much better than you would expect from a backman. His kicking for goal could use a bit of work.

On size and versatility he reminds me a bit of Hurley of the Bombers although with more athleticism and less offensive game. Still I think he has enormous potential and should be ready to step in for Tarrant as soon as he retires.


Ex-Geelong

Beau Black
DOB 10/1/93 Ht 184 Wt 78

Geelong really have not done their NSW scholarship players any favours in how they have gone about their development and again this year I think they have not helped young Beau Black. From what I have heard in regard to a couple of players, Geelong have really put stuff all work into their scholarship players and have shown a general disinterest in their progress on occasions. This is a big shame as when they do not pick up the option it really leaves a player with the stigma which is difficult to overcome. That is the case this year with Black who Geelong have decided they will not pick up. Black to his credit has not dropped his bundle and has continued to work and was one of the stars of State Screening.

At the State Screening Black was a bit ill but went through with testing anyway given he is a marginal prospect. He beat the Combine record in the standing vertical and his running vertical was 7 centimetres more than anyone was able to do this year at the Combine. He also went under 3 sec in the 20m and pulled out a mid 14s in the beep test. This showed Black as one of the elite athletes available this year. Add to this that the kid can also play a bit of football and I would think that someone may give him a bit of a look even if it’s only as a rookie.

Black has been a bit of a jack of all trades for his club this year playing all over the park but played exclusively as a small defender at the Champs. He did not have a lot of experience back there but I think this is probably where he has the best chance to make a name for himself at AFL level. He has the pace, strength, determination and spring to make life difficult for any small/medium forward. He had a good Champs and was named 2nd best for NSW against both Tasmania and Qld.

Black is a mature bodied player and he has been playing against men in the Sydney competition for the last two years. He was a Rising Star nominee last year and was selected in the Sydney competition rep team that played GWS at the beginning of the year. He was also named in the best for that game.

Against the under 18s he showed excellent strength in the contest and was rarely beaten throughout the tournament. He has some games where he was stuck in the back pocket but when he was able to get up the field he showed nice compact skills. He has played a fair bit through the midfield as a junior and his skills are solid I think. I would have liked to have seen him rebound a bit more but he tended to stay with his man. Good discipline but it didn’t showcase him much. As mentioned he can get up in the air but he does not have the best hands above his head hence why I see him down back. He is very courageous in the contest and is a very good spoiler of the ball.

Overall Black is an excellent athlete who plays a disciplined, physical style of game and who doesn’t let you down coming the other way. With the small forwards becoming more prevalent I think teams should be starting to consider guys like this who can come in and do a job ala Puopolo this year. Its also worth noting that Black is from the Nowra on the South Coast of NSW which is hardly an AFL hotbed. Get him into a full time AFL environment and I think he could show significant development.

Okey dokey that's it for another year. Enjoy.

Pre-empting a few questions:

- Schade should go 30-50 in the real thing I think.

- Clay Smith will probably go 20-30.

- Someone will take Kerridge and Dalgleish somewhere in the range of my picks but I got to the end and after 84 odd pages I couldn't be bothered doing any more.

- Grigg will go lower than I have him and so will Dobosz.

Excellent. Had considered starting a thread eagerly awaiting it!

When you say lower do you mean a lower draft pick (as in 10 is lower than 30) or lower as in later?

Some people mix it up.

Many thanks in advance

The Gettysburg Address was 271 words long.
I think it appropriate to think on that for a good while.

Good stuff Quigley, always look forward to your extensive and insightful descriptions

Quigley I just glanced at it but looks very left field which makes it a terrific read. Just re-editing mine for final selections but will be very different.

Give us your view on some of the KPF talent in the pool Post testing I have become a lot more despondent than when we went into DC. A lot didnt test or did average to poorly for mine.

UpTheGuts said:

Excellent. Had considered starting a thread eagerly awaiting it!

When you say lower do you mean a lower draft pick (as in 10 is lower than 30) or lower as in later?

Some people mix it up.

Many thanks in advance

Click to expand...

Grigg I think will go below 30. Someone is going to take a punt on him but he is going lower than most think I believe.

Always look forward to your mocks, Quigley. Good job all around.

I noticed that you don't have Josh Tynan down, though? Don't rate him or is there something else there that teams should be aware of?

Snoop Dog said:

Quigley I just glanced at it but looks very left field which makes it a terrific read. Just re-editing mine for final selections but will be very different.

Give us your view on some of the KPF talent in the pool Post testing I have become a lot more despondent than when we went into DC. A lot didnt test or did average to poorly for mine.

Click to expand...

Yeh the KPFs are tough this year and a lot of them didn't test. Guys like McInnes, Paine etc took the Combine off from testing. The ones who did test often tested poorly like Dobosz and many of them measured short like Dobosz again and Manson.

Manson apart from the measure helped himself with the testing he did do but leaving the Combine would have reinforced the flight risk that he is. Dobosz tested like Panos did a few years ago and we know what happened there - he fell to the rookie draft and I don't have any idea of what will happen to him this time around.

Fletcher Roberts might have helped himself with a decent 20m time although his repeat sprint time was terrible and he also measured shorter than listed. He is one who might come into consideration.

Elton tested great but measured a little shorter than most would have liked for a second ruck option. His play rather than his athleticism is what would have worried many.

Kersten measured as advertised (a little short) and was carrying some weight but showed he still has pace. Attitude is the query with him though. I still see him in the middle of the first round somewhere with Freo probably his floor at 16.

So lots and lots of question marks in the forwards and that is only the main prospects. I know you have a few guys you were keen on and their performances also had significant holes.

So in answer to your question - bugger if I know.

Great stuff, Certainly left field.

SydneyPhilly said:

Always look forward to your mocks, Quigley. Good job all around.

I noticed that you don't have Josh Tynan down, though? Don't rate him or is there something else there that teams should be aware of?

Click to expand...

Tynan will probably be there abouts. He cleans up pretty well at the back and is a nice mark but I marked him down for some sloppy skills when I saw him. Admittedly I have not followed him closely since the Champs.

Brett O'Hanlon just didn't cut it for you?

Thought he might find a home, not undeservedly, given his kicking I50, smart hands and agility.

Incredibly in depth write ups. Terrific work.

UpTheGuts said:

Brett O'Hanlon just didn't cut it for you?

Thought he might find a home, not undeservedly, given his kicking I50, smart hands and agility.

Click to expand...

I don't mind O'Hanlon at junior level but I have queries about his ability to step up to the next level. He has good determination and a reasonable football brain but he is a below 190cm third tall with poor athleticism. I am not sure he will be able to play the same type of game against AFL athletes.

great effort thanks, but dubious Weagles would take Waylen Manson?

Vigour said:

great effort thanks, but dubious Weagles would take Waylen Manson?

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Maybe but the rumour was that they were the ones who were into him early and as I mentioned in the write up they can afford to take the risk and he would be a great complement to what they already have in place.

Someone is going to need to be ballsy to take him given the risk he presents but in this draft with the talent level down a few might be prepared to back themselves.

What happened to Matt Buntin2

Love the differing take on things mate. If only Crozier would slide that far.....

Very opinionated and that's how teams will go this year. Lottery after 10......or 2