- Sep 25, 2005
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- AFL Club
- Collingwood
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- Gippy Power
Noticing a lot of talk about the number (and moreover quality) of players at CFC being out of contract and the implications and challenges we have in keeping them. Its all good and well to have a discussion about list management and who stays and goes but its a very difficult discussion to have without assessing the state of our salary cap and the players out of contract. So I decided to have a play around with the #’s and put some hypothetical #s against them. Obviously I don’t have exact data so lets not take this as anymore than a discussion point and as a means of highlighting some of the complexities Pert and Walsh face in getting this done. If they can do it then as much as Hine is a genius then so to will these two blokes.
Total Player Payment Rules
.........so I went and did some work on what the TPP (Total Player Payments) are, the increases, the rules, the ASA, rookie and vets rules etc. I then applied the TPP (and ASA payments, rookie payments etc) to our list so I could get a sense of what how where we likely sit vs our salary cap in a world where we kept everyone. Now i readily admit its difficult to do that for a variety of reasons (eg back ending contracts etc) and hence I tried to make allowances for it (eg Ball and Jolly in fact I assumed they were very heavily front loaded). I wont share the table because I want any discussion to be broader than focussing on individual players and debating whether or not they are worth what we think they are worth. The upshot is we have about $9.85m to play with with a circa 5% increase in 2013 and then 3% beyond that.
TPP
My sense is that if you were to keep all the players you wanted to our salary cap would be over by about 10% or close to $500k - 1m. If I am anywhere near that then Pert and Walsh have a very big job on their hands and I suspect some ‘hard calls’ in front of them. Importantly, that’s not a number that can be fixed by just delisting 3-4 junior players and nor it is a problem that can be resolved by back-ending a whole bunch of contracts because the TPP only increases by 3% in the years after next. To my way of thinking I suspect the only way to solve is to convince a significant number of players they will need to take a collective discount to stay together. Based on what I am seeing that would have to be 10% of what others might throw at them. (eg Cloke accepts $850k pa instead of the $1m someone else will). Sounds relatively easy but for a guy like Cloke that is a big ask as he is about to embark on probably his most important contract. And even if everyone took a 10% haircut its on the basis some of the older guys out of contract have significantly reduced ones as Bally already has.
The Players needing upgrades
Travis Cloke – Many would say he is our biggest issue but I am not so sure. Pies will do everything to keep him and I am not concerned he will go. If required Collingwood will let others go in order to match any offer. The biggest I think is who will it squeeze out. Reid or Sidebottom? Anyway, Cloke would be on circa $400-450k today and be needing at least $850 - 900k I would have thought. Unfortunately for CFC, Mr Cloke seems to be keen to shop his son around and put the sword to the Pies on more money than Collingwood probably have to play with. What it does though is create a massive headache for the CFC because it undoubtedly means that one or two big names will have to go if thats where it gets to. I suspect the difficulty for them is they already have guys like Daisy and Pendles etc participating in the ASA so other clubs can probably offer trav more in that area and thereby have a considerably better offer. Anyway $900k gets him done and we move on.....
Scott pendlebury – Already committed but he would have gone from $600k or so to something around the $750k mark.
Ben Reid – I think he is the big issue and am pretty sure GWS have targetted this kid instead of Cloke etc. Why not? Young, tall, athletic and already an AA and GF player.......As far as I am hearing the game was always to bid the others up and hit Reid and a number of 600k is in the offing. There is no doubt in my mind he would be ranked from a list mgmt perspective in the top 4-5 at CFC so would be asking for $450-500k a year. I doubt he is on anywhere near that at the moment given 2010 was his breakout year so there is a considerable increase coming there and I would think the GWS guys are able to offer a bit more than that notwithstanding they have some salary cap issues of their own looming.
Steele Sidebottom – Steele would not have been on much more than 200k this year and I would think that he is in the top 7-8 players on their list and moreover is an A grade midfielder now Would have to be looking at offers from rivals starting with a ‘5’ in front of it so would think somewhere around $400-450k will be somewhere near the number required.
Dayne Beams – Very similar to Steele I would have thought. Not sure that the Suns have the cash but the Lions certainly would have some money to lure him home. Lions aren’t an attractive proposition though so would be staggered to see him leave and has said he is very keen to stay. I would think he would still need $400k though.
Sharrod Wellingham - He will be another that I would think will be needing a reasonable upgrade. I would think he is on about $200k and no doubt could command a number around $350-400k. His best footy is in front of him and reportedly keen to stay so wont be playing the 'mercenary' card (unlike others) I would think. Club have been good to Sharrod as well and would like to think he realises the importance of that structure to him.
Harry O’Brien - I struggled a bit with Harry. Couldn’t see him leaving but again I struggle with how much they can afford to pay him. I would think he is on around $250-300k and suspect that will need an upgrade of some sort but lets say he would need to be around $350k.
Andrew Krakouer - He is a really interesting one. Word is he was on something around 80k and if he had gone well again this year could have expected it to be doubled. Be interesting to see what his expectations are and the club's ability and willingness to pay much more are. Personally I would like them to keep him because we are in a premiership window, the kids coming through in that spot are still a bit raw and he is a proven finals player. Suspect a number around mid 100’s is about right.
Lachlan Keefe – I am not sure if Lach is in or out of contract but if he is out of contract he will be wanting much more. He would be on $80k or so and reasonably expect $150k given the sorts of offers others will throw at him. Clubs like the Lions who are cashed up could provide him a decent front end loaded contract and get him up there to release Merrett etc. Sydney would be another club that could do with him as would the Hawks etc.
Alex Fasolo – His 2 year contract will be up and he could reasonably expect to go from $75k to $150k. Kid is a talent and has played a lot of senior footy at such a young age.
Tyson Goldsack – Is up for renewal and widely regarded as a player who if had been at most other clubs would have played a lot more senior footy. Seems to love the club though and tight with Cloke etc so should stay but I think he will want more money. Wont be huge but club would do well to accommodate him. Suspect would need mid 200’s.
Brent MacAffer – Not sure but I think he signed on for 1 more year. I suspect it will for circa $150k or so and the club would be keen to retain on the same terms for next year. I think they realised in the 2010 GF how important his strong body was around the fwd stoppages / contests and how we missed him in the 2011 GF. He is an important player for mine and we should aim to keep him but he could be vunerable.
Chris Tarrant – Suspect Tazz will need to be resigned but I wouldn’t worry as happy to play for little and wont expect any more.
Luke Ball – I think he I have read he is playing for not much over the next year or two after having a pretty significant contract up front.
And that is to say nothing of the players coming off contract after 2 years of being on their ‘base’ draftee salary which usually varies from $65-100k depending on where they were drafted etc. FWIW I assumed a base rate of $65k for most of them as none were Rd 1 draftees. So Ceglar, Ugle, Young, Buckley could also have their handout. None of them really impact the ‘dial’ so no point stressing about them to much but lets say between $85-100k for each of them.
The Size of the problem
I came to a view that based on the above and where I thought others were at (eg Assumed Ball and Jolly were front loaded contracts) that we were circa $750k in the deficit. Thats what the club will need to find to get to their numbers. Again remember they can front and back load contract and in fact next year the salary cap goes up by $500k so there is some room to move with Clokes contract etc but notwithstanding Pert and Walsh have some work ahead of them and we should all be pretty mindful of it.
The Sacred Ones
Times are good at Collingwood and they have a premiership window for many years to come. Key to that though is keeping Swan, Pendlebury, Thomas, Wellingham, Sidebottom and Beams as the core midfield group along with Cloke, Brown, Reid, Witts as your talls and Shaw, Fasolo, Obrien as your defender and mid fwd types. Everyone else would have to be discussed I would think and the club would have to be prepared to deal on if they had to.
What ‘might’ happen
Ben Johnson - I dont think it looks great for Ben. From my assessment at least one big name would have to go and he would have to be on circa 350k I would think. The body is failing BJ and he has acknowledged himself that if we won a GF this year he would be out. I think Ben will certainly be on his way unfortuantely. As an aside, dont reckon I've seen a player improve his foot skills as much as he did.
Cameron Wood – Been in the system a long time and still not there in my view. In saying that, would be a big risk to take in Jolly to 2012 and then only have Witts and Ceglar – particularly given we are in a premiership window so I could see them persisting with him but probably on $150k and I think he could probably be replaced with a rookie listed experienced ruckmen for considerably less.
Simon Buckley – If he is on anymore than $100k and is out of contract then I would think Simon is probably likely to go unless something significant changes in his performance level. A low base and match payments might be the answer for him.
Luke Rounds – I think he will be gone but it wont be a huge saving.
In Summary
The optimist in me says that they can probably get there as my table using the above sort of #’s gets us to about a $250k deficit for next year but I assume that could be sorted out with front and back ending various contracts. The problem with the front and back ending is it causes a problem for the blokes needing to be resigned in 2013. For example Didak, Dawes but also the younger ones who could be making a big impression by then. Alternatively, it might also mean a tough call on Krakouer or Caf or someone like Jolly retiring ahead of schedule.
What I do know is that if we can get them all signed up then Walsh and Pert would have done an amazing job. Good luck fella’s.....
Total Player Payment Rules
.........so I went and did some work on what the TPP (Total Player Payments) are, the increases, the rules, the ASA, rookie and vets rules etc. I then applied the TPP (and ASA payments, rookie payments etc) to our list so I could get a sense of what how where we likely sit vs our salary cap in a world where we kept everyone. Now i readily admit its difficult to do that for a variety of reasons (eg back ending contracts etc) and hence I tried to make allowances for it (eg Ball and Jolly in fact I assumed they were very heavily front loaded). I wont share the table because I want any discussion to be broader than focussing on individual players and debating whether or not they are worth what we think they are worth. The upshot is we have about $9.85m to play with with a circa 5% increase in 2013 and then 3% beyond that.
TPP
My sense is that if you were to keep all the players you wanted to our salary cap would be over by about 10% or close to $500k - 1m. If I am anywhere near that then Pert and Walsh have a very big job on their hands and I suspect some ‘hard calls’ in front of them. Importantly, that’s not a number that can be fixed by just delisting 3-4 junior players and nor it is a problem that can be resolved by back-ending a whole bunch of contracts because the TPP only increases by 3% in the years after next. To my way of thinking I suspect the only way to solve is to convince a significant number of players they will need to take a collective discount to stay together. Based on what I am seeing that would have to be 10% of what others might throw at them. (eg Cloke accepts $850k pa instead of the $1m someone else will). Sounds relatively easy but for a guy like Cloke that is a big ask as he is about to embark on probably his most important contract. And even if everyone took a 10% haircut its on the basis some of the older guys out of contract have significantly reduced ones as Bally already has.
The Players needing upgrades
Travis Cloke – Many would say he is our biggest issue but I am not so sure. Pies will do everything to keep him and I am not concerned he will go. If required Collingwood will let others go in order to match any offer. The biggest I think is who will it squeeze out. Reid or Sidebottom? Anyway, Cloke would be on circa $400-450k today and be needing at least $850 - 900k I would have thought. Unfortunately for CFC, Mr Cloke seems to be keen to shop his son around and put the sword to the Pies on more money than Collingwood probably have to play with. What it does though is create a massive headache for the CFC because it undoubtedly means that one or two big names will have to go if thats where it gets to. I suspect the difficulty for them is they already have guys like Daisy and Pendles etc participating in the ASA so other clubs can probably offer trav more in that area and thereby have a considerably better offer. Anyway $900k gets him done and we move on.....
Scott pendlebury – Already committed but he would have gone from $600k or so to something around the $750k mark.
Ben Reid – I think he is the big issue and am pretty sure GWS have targetted this kid instead of Cloke etc. Why not? Young, tall, athletic and already an AA and GF player.......As far as I am hearing the game was always to bid the others up and hit Reid and a number of 600k is in the offing. There is no doubt in my mind he would be ranked from a list mgmt perspective in the top 4-5 at CFC so would be asking for $450-500k a year. I doubt he is on anywhere near that at the moment given 2010 was his breakout year so there is a considerable increase coming there and I would think the GWS guys are able to offer a bit more than that notwithstanding they have some salary cap issues of their own looming.
Steele Sidebottom – Steele would not have been on much more than 200k this year and I would think that he is in the top 7-8 players on their list and moreover is an A grade midfielder now Would have to be looking at offers from rivals starting with a ‘5’ in front of it so would think somewhere around $400-450k will be somewhere near the number required.
Dayne Beams – Very similar to Steele I would have thought. Not sure that the Suns have the cash but the Lions certainly would have some money to lure him home. Lions aren’t an attractive proposition though so would be staggered to see him leave and has said he is very keen to stay. I would think he would still need $400k though.
Sharrod Wellingham - He will be another that I would think will be needing a reasonable upgrade. I would think he is on about $200k and no doubt could command a number around $350-400k. His best footy is in front of him and reportedly keen to stay so wont be playing the 'mercenary' card (unlike others) I would think. Club have been good to Sharrod as well and would like to think he realises the importance of that structure to him.
Harry O’Brien - I struggled a bit with Harry. Couldn’t see him leaving but again I struggle with how much they can afford to pay him. I would think he is on around $250-300k and suspect that will need an upgrade of some sort but lets say he would need to be around $350k.
Andrew Krakouer - He is a really interesting one. Word is he was on something around 80k and if he had gone well again this year could have expected it to be doubled. Be interesting to see what his expectations are and the club's ability and willingness to pay much more are. Personally I would like them to keep him because we are in a premiership window, the kids coming through in that spot are still a bit raw and he is a proven finals player. Suspect a number around mid 100’s is about right.
Lachlan Keefe – I am not sure if Lach is in or out of contract but if he is out of contract he will be wanting much more. He would be on $80k or so and reasonably expect $150k given the sorts of offers others will throw at him. Clubs like the Lions who are cashed up could provide him a decent front end loaded contract and get him up there to release Merrett etc. Sydney would be another club that could do with him as would the Hawks etc.
Alex Fasolo – His 2 year contract will be up and he could reasonably expect to go from $75k to $150k. Kid is a talent and has played a lot of senior footy at such a young age.
Tyson Goldsack – Is up for renewal and widely regarded as a player who if had been at most other clubs would have played a lot more senior footy. Seems to love the club though and tight with Cloke etc so should stay but I think he will want more money. Wont be huge but club would do well to accommodate him. Suspect would need mid 200’s.
Brent MacAffer – Not sure but I think he signed on for 1 more year. I suspect it will for circa $150k or so and the club would be keen to retain on the same terms for next year. I think they realised in the 2010 GF how important his strong body was around the fwd stoppages / contests and how we missed him in the 2011 GF. He is an important player for mine and we should aim to keep him but he could be vunerable.
Chris Tarrant – Suspect Tazz will need to be resigned but I wouldn’t worry as happy to play for little and wont expect any more.
Luke Ball – I think he I have read he is playing for not much over the next year or two after having a pretty significant contract up front.
And that is to say nothing of the players coming off contract after 2 years of being on their ‘base’ draftee salary which usually varies from $65-100k depending on where they were drafted etc. FWIW I assumed a base rate of $65k for most of them as none were Rd 1 draftees. So Ceglar, Ugle, Young, Buckley could also have their handout. None of them really impact the ‘dial’ so no point stressing about them to much but lets say between $85-100k for each of them.
The Size of the problem
I came to a view that based on the above and where I thought others were at (eg Assumed Ball and Jolly were front loaded contracts) that we were circa $750k in the deficit. Thats what the club will need to find to get to their numbers. Again remember they can front and back load contract and in fact next year the salary cap goes up by $500k so there is some room to move with Clokes contract etc but notwithstanding Pert and Walsh have some work ahead of them and we should all be pretty mindful of it.
The Sacred Ones
Times are good at Collingwood and they have a premiership window for many years to come. Key to that though is keeping Swan, Pendlebury, Thomas, Wellingham, Sidebottom and Beams as the core midfield group along with Cloke, Brown, Reid, Witts as your talls and Shaw, Fasolo, Obrien as your defender and mid fwd types. Everyone else would have to be discussed I would think and the club would have to be prepared to deal on if they had to.
What ‘might’ happen
Ben Johnson - I dont think it looks great for Ben. From my assessment at least one big name would have to go and he would have to be on circa 350k I would think. The body is failing BJ and he has acknowledged himself that if we won a GF this year he would be out. I think Ben will certainly be on his way unfortuantely. As an aside, dont reckon I've seen a player improve his foot skills as much as he did.
Cameron Wood – Been in the system a long time and still not there in my view. In saying that, would be a big risk to take in Jolly to 2012 and then only have Witts and Ceglar – particularly given we are in a premiership window so I could see them persisting with him but probably on $150k and I think he could probably be replaced with a rookie listed experienced ruckmen for considerably less.
Simon Buckley – If he is on anymore than $100k and is out of contract then I would think Simon is probably likely to go unless something significant changes in his performance level. A low base and match payments might be the answer for him.
Luke Rounds – I think he will be gone but it wont be a huge saving.
In Summary
The optimist in me says that they can probably get there as my table using the above sort of #’s gets us to about a $250k deficit for next year but I assume that could be sorted out with front and back ending various contracts. The problem with the front and back ending is it causes a problem for the blokes needing to be resigned in 2013. For example Didak, Dawes but also the younger ones who could be making a big impression by then. Alternatively, it might also mean a tough call on Krakouer or Caf or someone like Jolly retiring ahead of schedule.
What I do know is that if we can get them all signed up then Walsh and Pert would have done an amazing job. Good luck fella’s.....
