Opinion 14 Points a Game

[LondonBulldog]

First of all he should be playing his role, trying to fit in, contest, lead, open spaces for others etc. If he plays his role the goals will come. Yet goals alone should not be the measure of his success. If the tream structure functions better and Boyd is only a bit player, I'm still happy.
20 goals is pass. 40 is excellent.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

The danger for Boyd is if he kicks a bag in his first few games for the club (e.g. Rawlings - different circumstances, but also similar in some ways). I hope he kicks a couple each game, maybe a 3 here and there, with maybe a bigger bag late in the season to build momentum and expectation for 2016. If he kicks 5+ early in the 2015 season, pressure and expectation will trend upward rapidly, and has the potential to be a negative for all concerned.

(On the other hand, if he kicks 5+ bags every 3-4 weeks this year, and handles the pressure, I look forward to a Coleman in 2016 ).

 

[Morris Major]

Tom Hawkins played 10 games for 13 goals in his second season and 24 for 34 goals in his third.

In one of the best teams of all time.

Tough times ahead for young Tommy Boyd

 

[fronkalicious]

The danger for Boyd is if he kicks a bag in his first few games for the club (e.g. Rawlings - different circumstances, but also similar in some ways). I hope he kicks a couple each game, maybe a 3 here and there, with maybe a bigger bag late in the season to build momentum and expectation for 2016. If he kicks 5+ early in the 2015 season, pressure and expectation will trend upward rapidly, and has the potential to be a negative for all concerned.

(On the other hand, if he kicks 5+ bags every 3-4 weeks this year, and handles the pressure, I look forward to a Coleman in 2016 ).

So you don't want him to kick a bag in his first game??? This is what I'm talking about. I'd be thrilled if he kicked a bag in his first game, regardless of what it does to expectations or what his form is like thereafter. Just chill and enjoy any good footy the kid plays.

 

[Tommycash]

Tim Cahill is 35 and has been an athlete for as long as Boyd has been alive. I don't think this thread is about his own expectations, it's about public and member expectations. He's 19 and still has a 19 year olds body. dogwatch is right with this pass mark though, that is very realistic.

Yeah, I agree. I'm happy for him to set a goal of winning the Brownlow with 100+ goals this season. When he fails his own goals, he should not be facing public criticism that will be fuelled by unrealistic expectations from the public.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

So you don't want him to kick a bag in his first game??? This is what I'm talking about. I'd be thrilled if he kicked a bag in his first game, regardless of what it does to expectations or what his form is like thereafter. Just chill and enjoy any good footy the kid plays.

Actually I could have worded that post more clearly!

I never said I hope he doesn't kick a bag early, I would be happy if he kicks a bag in his first game, because I think he has the talent to follow it up, even if he doesn't kick another for the rest of the season.

But I suspect if he kicks one early, then has an ordinary season, fans, media, BF will dwell on that - given his profile, etc. I won't dwell on it, but I know the majority of the footy world will. Assuming he can handle that, that's fine.

What I DO want is for him to be played when he is ready, not rushed into the team because he is 200cm, a KPF, on a massive deal and on our list. Pre-season 1990, Chris Grant built up his form during practice matches as the season approached, out-performing older team-mates vying for a KPF role, and was suddenly touted as a likely debutant in an era of less media saturation. But his pre-season form warranted inclusion in the 1990 R1 team against St Kilda. Granted that Grant was not on a 7-year mega-deal, but Boyd must be picked on form. If he can't get a kick during intraclubs and NAB cup, I would expect he doesn't play R1.

 

[Old_Man_James]

For the investment, you would ideally want Tom to have a 2+ goal per game average eventually. 21 Players last year achieved this and only 7 achieved 2.5+

Pass mark for me would be a goal a game average with 1.5+ the target, then 1.5-2 for another year or two. In saying that though, if Boyd helps keep defences honest, and they need to double team him due to his sheer size so that there is a marked lift in output from others in the forwardline, that would be fantastic too, and the benefits harder to quantify.

Sadly though, even if Boyd indirectly provides 10 extra goals per game, you can guarantee lots of scrutiny due to the contract size and length. Im hoping for early goals to shut up the knockers.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

For the investment, you would ideally want Tom to have a 2+ goal per game average eventually. 21 Players last year achieved this and only 7 achieved 2.5+

Pass mark for me would be a goal a game average with 1.5+ the target, then 1.5-2 for another year or two. In saying that though, if Boyd helps keep defences honest, and they need to double team him due to his sheer size so that there is a marked lift in output from others in the forwardline, that would be fantastic too, and the benefits harder to quantify.

Sadly though, even if Boyd indirectly provides 10 extra goals per game, you can guarantee lots of scrutiny due to the contract size and length. Im hoping for early goals to shut up the knockers.

For a Geelong supporter, you make a lot of sense!

 

[Pannalstaroz]

It has come up in various threads so - at the risk of hijacking Acker's topic slightly - perhaps we should be broadening the scope of this thread to consider the Boyd Expectation problem.

Many of us (including me on a number of occasions) have declared that one of Boyd's biggest challenges in 2015 is to cope with the weight of expectation. We are nearly all keen to hose down the hype. We are reluctant to set a high "pass mark" for what he needs to achieve this year and even in 2016-17. Indeed it has been argued there should be no "pass mark" at all - certainly in terms of goals.

This is all well and good but I don't think that collectively we are being entirely honest with ourselves. You only have to read the thread that declared Boyd was coming to the Dogs to see what our gut reactions really were. Sure, they weren't all about his footballing abilities - some of it was about taking the fight back to GWS and showing the footy world we weren't going to take it lying down - but at its most basic level we were drooling (or doing other unmentionable things with bodily fluids) because:

• Boyd was an outstanding and unequivocal #1 draft pick - we have had only one #1 pick in over a quarter of a century of the National Draft
• Boyd has been rated by some as potentially the best #1 draft pick of the last decade
• Press articles like this one which put him ahead of Hogan, Daniher and Patton: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-09-05/best-of-the-best
• Boyd is a big bodied FF who dominated the junior age competition. Have we ever had one of those on our books?

Then there is the price tag. Who pays a player nearly $7m over 7 years? No-one ... except Sydney and us. One or two others might get over a million a year but not over the long term. So he is instantly put in the Buddy Franklin league whether we like it or not. And why do you spend that sort of money unless you think you are getting an out-and-out champion?

The reality is there is massive expectation on the kid, even if we have the fire hoses out. A lot of this expectation has inevitably been created by ourselves and our club. The media will be reporting his progress almost weekly. Opposition fans will be in his face (and in ours) if he has a lean spell. Even some of our more fickle supporters might turn on him.

The credibility of the club is on the line to some extent: were we really matching it with the big boys or were we lavishly overspending in a sort of little-man-syndrome? Those questions will be asked if Boyd isn't making a splash in 2015. It's going to be hard to argue that "big players take time, look at Hawkins" or "he had an interrupted pre-season" or "he's only 19" when the wraps on him are so great. There are implications in the media that he's going to be a bigger star than Hawkins anyway.

It's going to be hard but the best thing we can do is concentrate equally on the other 43 players at the club and just let him find his own feet and come along at whatever rate he can manage. But I have no idea how we keep the media and the opposition fans off his back.

I hope the kid has a robust mental approach to the game. He's going to need it.

Well said

 

[the dog's kennel]

Right - 50 goals.

So he should be in the Top 10 goalkickers in the league at the age of 19.... a list on which the next youngest player is 23 (Gunston).

Makes perfect sense. Nothing unrealistic about that at all.

Oh also, I might add that the greatest forward of the last 20 years Buddy Franklin, only kicked 50 goals for the first time when he was 20. And he is the athletic type - who develop faster than the massive unit types.

So... yeah, Boyd to kick 50 goals when 19. Perfect logic.

 

[TiAn_]

I'll just quote myself here:

Posted this in another thread:

By comparison, I've listed below the second years for Joe Daniher, Taylor Walker, Kurt Tippett(22 years old), Tom Hawkins, Travis Cloke, Nick Riewoldt, and Jonathon Brown.

The only certainty is we can't be certain what he'll produce! I'm tipping his production will be something between Joe Daniher and Tom Hawkins, although I don't think he'll receive the same service as Daniher and Hawkins did.

YearTeam#GM (W-D-L) KI MK HB DI GL BH

2014 Essendon 6 21 (11-1-9)159 112 78 237 28 20
2010 Adelaide 13 18 (7-0-11)144 84 69 213 35 28
2009 Adelaide 4 24 (15-0-9) 160 96 98 258 55 31
2008 Geelong 26 10 (9-0-1) 71 51 48 119 13 5
2006 Collingwood 32 15 (10-0-5)146 79 25 171 6 12
2002 St Kilda 12 22 (5-1-16) 225 178 94 319 21 18
2001 Brisbane Lions 16 25 (20-0-5) 217 157 130 347 38 22

In summary, 10-20 games and 12-30 goals would be in line with Joe Daniher and Tom Hawkins, who I would argue were similarly rated prospects, with similar physiques, playing similar roles.

The caveat is that both Daniher and Hawkins played in teams that won more games than they lost, whereas Boyd will be playing in a team that will likely have a 1:2 win/loss ratio at best, and is known for poor delivery to forwards, likely reducing his opportunities.

I think the absolute best case scenario would be a Taylor Walker type season, producing 35 goals and around 10 disposals per game, in a team that scored between 1700-1800 points, nearly identical to our performance last year.

 

[go you pups]

Tom Hawkins played 10 games for 13 goals in his second season and 24 for 34 goals in his third.

In one of the best teams of all time.

Tough times ahead for young Tommy Boyd

Had Mooney, Ottens, Stevie J (when he was a permanent fwd) etc ahead of him and played largely as a 3rd fwd in that time. Boyd will take the number 1 defender and should have more ball directed at him.

 

[go you pups]

Oh also, I might add that the greatest forward of the last 20 years Buddy Franklin, only kicked 50 goals for the first time when he was 20. And he is the athletic type - who develop faster than the massive unit types.

So... yeah, Boyd to kick 50 goals when 19. Perfect logic.

What was Matthew Lloyd's numbers as a kid? He played when he was 17 I think, booted 100 in 2000 as a 22 year old.

 

[go you pups]

Lloyd kicked 63 as a 3rd year player in 97 as a 19 year old from 20 games, suppose Buddy was similar in 2007 but he would've kicked more if he kicked straight that year, I remember the game the Hawks belted us when we were in that late season slump he kicked 2.11.

 

[Toastman]

Oh also, I might add that the greatest forward of the last 20 years Buddy Franklin, only kicked 50 goals for the first time when he was 20. And he is the athletic type - who develop faster than the massive unit types.

So... yeah, Boyd to kick 50 goals when 19. Perfect logic.

Plugger Lockett hasn't been out for 20 years yet so Buddy is clearly not the greatest forward of the last 20 years. Buddy isn't even going to come close to Plugger's record.

 

[100action]

lol at the optimism ITT.

2 goals for him in the first 7 games would be par.

 

[Dogsman16]

All I hope from tom is a goal a game if not a little more from at least 18 games this season. Think if he can get around 25 goals I will be more than satisfied knowing that we have 3 other players with more than a 50% chance of kicking 30 plus next season (Crameri, Stringer, Dahl) particularly if dahl is played as the small deep forward.

 

[fargy]

lol at the optimism ITT.

2 goals for him in the first 7 games would be par.

Lol at the negativity ITT.

You think par would be about what he did last year, which was about 0.89 goals a game, not 2 in 7 games.

 

[Toastman]

All I hope from tom is a goal a game if not a little more from at least 18 games this season. Think if he can get around 25 goals I will be more than satisfied knowing that we have 3 other players with more than a 50% chance of kicking 30 plus next season (Crameri, Stringer, Dahl) particularly if dahl is played as the small deep forward.

Bonts kicked 15 from 16 games last year, a better goals per game than Dahl, I'd put him in the 50% chance to kick 30 this year club if they continue to play him forward.

 

[100action]

Lol at the negativity ITT.

You think par would be about what he did last year, which was about 0.89 goals a game, not 2 in 7 games.

his coming up against either the best full backs or the best overall defenses in the game in the first 7 games. I would be stoked if kicked more than 2.

 

[fargy]

his coming up against either the best full backs or the best overall defenses in the game in the first 7 games. I would be stoked if kicked more than 2.

Kicked 2 against the Tigers last year so might do it by round 2. And surely you'd allow for one goal against the Saints?

 

[fronkalicious]

Bonts kicked 15 from 16 games last year, a better goals per game than Dahl, I'd put him in the 50% chance to kick 30 this year club if they continue to play him forward.

Dal was horribly misused by the coaching staff last year IMO.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I've intentionally IQ'd the GWS games that Boyd played in to see what did outside of the highlights, and aside from the obvious lack of AFL fitness, he's a really good, realllllly good player. The delivery he got was at best appalling, other than a beautiful pass that Treloar gave him against Richmond, but his leading patterns are good, he knows where to run, he pushes off his defenders to create space and he can catch it. He did drop a few contested marks in packs that he got first hands to, but I suspect he'll be catching them in 2 years.

What I was most impressed with was his kicking. He kicks the ball very straight. He's not a long kick yet though, ie he struggled from 45m out, but he kicks it straight, which is why I believe he'll be better than Hawkins, who kicks in swingers and out swingers, often in the same kick.

I have no doubt in 3-4 years when Griff has retired to go pig shooting, he will be viewed as the greatest recruit the club has targeted of all time.

 

[Dav1d]

I've intentiinally IQ'd the GWS games that Boyd played in to see what did outside of the highlights, and aside from the obvious lack of AFL fitness, he's a really good, realllllly good player. The delivery he got was at best appalling, other than a beautiful pass that Treloar gave him against Richmond, but his leading patterns are good, he knows where to run, he pushes off his defenders to create space and he can catch it. He did drop a few contested marks in packs that he got first hands to, but I suspect he'll be catching them in 2 years.

What I was most impressed with was his kicking. He kicks the ball very straight. He's not a long kick yet though, ie he struggled from 45m out, but he kicks it straight, which is why I believe he'll be better than Hawkins, who kicks in swingers and out swingers, often in the same kick.

I have no doubt in 3-4 years when Griff has retired to go pig shooting, he will be viewed as the greatest recruit the club has targeted of all time.

I've done the same
it is pretty much like this
Boyd see ball, Boyd get ball

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I think we need to manage expectations - but that said, I also think some are managing their expectations a little too much. 14 points per game is, to me, unrealistic (but that's not to say that that shouldn't be where Boyd is aiming). However those suggesting a horrendously low GPG average due to "taking time" are going a little far from my perspective.

Talls do take time, especially in the frame that Boyd is growing into. However historically the lack of goals kicked by future champions early on in their career is overblown. While most are relatively average in many areas of their game in the early stages of their career, the amount of goals kicked in a young key forward's (who goes on to be a very good player) second and third years are mostly decent. I picked ten past and present top-line key forwards at random and looked up their second-year stats:
Travis Cloke - 6 goals from 15 games; 0.4 GPG
Jason Dunstall - 77 goals from 22 games; 3.5 GPG
Tom Hawkins - 13 goals from 10 games; 1.3 GPG
Jonathan Brown - 38 goals from 25 games; 1.52 GPG
Matthew Pavlich - 28 goals from 21 games; 1.33 GPG
Jack Riewoldt - 18 goals from 8 games; 2.25 GPG
Gary Ablett, Sr - 33 goals from 15 games; 2.2 GPG
Wayne Carey - 38 goals from 21 games; 1.81 GPG
Lance Franklin - 31 goals from 14 games; 2.21 GPG
Nick Riewoldt - 21 goals from 22 games; 0.95 GPG
On average, these players kicked just over 1.75 goals per game. If you take Dunstall's stats out of it because of how ridiculous they are, they still averaged a little under 1.50 goals per game. Looking only at present players to correct for changes in game plan, etc, they kicked just under 1.35 goals per game.

My point in all this is that we need to have a look at what we want Boyd to become and compare him to those that reached that sort of level. We guaranteed him millions of dollars as a teenager and gave up our captain (a genuinely elite player) and a top-class pick for him - we both want and need him to become, at worst, a very good key forward in future. This isn't going to happen overnight and I don't believe we can go into the season expecting anywhere near 50 goals (and before anybody comes at me with a, "We're not paying him millions of dollars to kick 20 goals," remark, we aren't paying him millions of dollars next year - he's earning draftee wages) as it just doesn't happen very often. The list above, in my opinion, covers a good range from 'very good key forward' to 'genuine superstar key forward' - and we want Boyd to be somewhere approximately within that range. As such, his numbers should be around the mark of these guys in their second year. How you interpret the cutoffs of a 'pass' or a 'fail' on the year from these numbers is, of course, subjective, but I think it's a relatively good way of looking at it.

Personally I would be looking at something above 1.2 GPG as being a pass. It's a respectable increase on his first-year average, as well as being close to many of the players mentioned above.