Opinion 14 Points a Game

[ivan rassmussen]

I think we need to manage expectations - but that said, I also think some are managing their expectations a little too much. 14 points per game is, to me, unrealistic (but that's not to say that that shouldn't be where Boyd is aiming). However those suggesting a horrendously low GPG average due to "taking time" are going a little far from my perspective.

Talls do take time, especially in the frame that Boyd is growing into. However historically the lack of goals kicked by future champions early on in their career is overblown. While most are relatively average in many areas of their game in the early stages of their career, the amount of goals kicked in a young key forward's (who goes on to be a very good player) second and third years are mostly decent. I picked ten past and present top-line key forwards at random and looked up their second-year stats:
Travis Cloke - 6 goals from 15 games
Jason Dunstall - 77 goals from 22 games
Tom Hawkins - 13 goals from 10 games
Jonathan Brown - 38 goals from 25 games
Matthew Pavlich - 28 goals from 21 games
Jack Riewoldt - 18 goals from 8 games
Gary Ablett, Sr - 33 goals from 15 games
Wayne Carey - 38 goals from 21 games
Lance Franklin - 31 goals from 14 games
Nick Riewoldt - 21 goals from 22 games
On average, these players kicked just over 1.75 goals per game. If you take Dunstall's stats out of it because of how ridiculous they are, they still averaged a little under 1.50 goals per game. Looking only at present players to correct for changes in game plan, etc, they kicked just under 1.35 goals per game.

My point in all this is that we need to have a look at what we want Boyd to become and compare him to those that reached that sort of level. We guaranteed him millions of dollars as a teenager and gave up our captain (a genuinely elite player) and a top-class pick for him - we both want and need him to become, at worst, a very good key forward in future. This isn't going to happen overnight and I don't believe we can go into the season expecting anywhere near 50 goals (and before anybody comes at me with a, "We're not paying him millions of dollars to kick 20 goals," remark, we aren't paying him millions of dollars next year - he's earning draftee wages) as it just doesn't happen very often. The list above, in my opinion, covers a good range from 'very good key forward' to 'genuine superstar key forward' - and we want Boyd to be somewhere approximately within that range. As such, his numbers should be around the mark of these guys in their second year. How you interpret the cutoffs of a 'pass' or a 'fail' on the year from these numbers is, of course, subjective, but I think it's a relatively good way of looking at it.

Personally I would be looking at something above 1.2 GPG as being a pass. It's a respectable increase on his first-year average, as well as being close to many of the players mentioned above.

So 1.2-1.35 is a pass, 1.5 good, 1.75+ very good? Sounds fair to me. (And thanks for a "brief" post that I can digest in a few seconds at work! )

(But, what if he plays, say, 18 games, kicks 27 in one of them but doesn't kick one in the other 17? That's 1.5 GPG too!)

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

So 1.2-1.35 is a pass, 1.5 good, 1.75+ very good? Sounds fair to me. (And thanks for a "brief" post that I can digest in a few seconds at work! )

(But, what if he plays, say, 18 games, kicks 27 in one of them but doesn't kick one in the other 17? That's 1.5 GPG too!)

I like your ratings system - seems fair to me as well.

If he's kicking 27 goals in a game I think I'd be more than happy with his potential as a future champ. Jokes aside, though, it's true that GPG doesn't capture inconsistency at all. I'm not overly fussed about how consistent he is at this stage though - I'm expecting some ups and downs this year. As long as he's kicking a respectable amount of goals on the year, though, I'm happy.

 

[ivan rassmussen]

I like your ratings system - seems fair to me as well.

If he's kicking 27 goals in a game I think I'd be more than happy with his potential as a future champ. Jokes aside, though, it's true that GPG doesn't capture inconsistency at all. I'm not overly fussed about how consistent he is at this stage though - I'm expecting some ups and downs this year. As long as he's kicking a respectable amount of goals on the year, though, I'm happy.

Me too Dannnnnnnnnn. (Sorry, I was just taking the p*** with the second bit, you're analysis was a good read, I'm just a smart-arse sometimes.)

 

[Yojimbo]

I know this is a Tom Boyd thread, but i am more interested
in the triangle of terror to be honest. The triangle is made
up of Jake Stringer, Stewart Crameri and Marcus Bontempelli.
One point of the triangle is in the midfield the other two are
at half forward, the terror comes from match up headaches
they will cause other teams. Throw in Redpath at CHF or
even Roberts and wait we have not even got to Boyd yet
standing deep with two terriers at his feet. You could even
have a smaller triangle made up of Dahlhaus, Hunter and
Hrovat again with one in the middle. Throw in a couple of
bench rotations and a sub and i can see a plan coming
together.So when i say i am not fussed how many goals
Tom Boyd kicks it's because he gives us a chance to
implement a genuine structure and be harder to defend.

 

[acker]

Right - 50 goals.

So he should be in the Top 10 goalkickers in the league at the age of 19.... a list on which the next youngest player is 23 (Gunston).

Makes perfect sense. Nothing unrealistic about that at all.

17 year old Chris Grant kicked 50 Goals + 1 in 1990 so spare me the tears champ

 

[Toastman]

17 year old Chris Grant kicked 50 Goals + 1 in 1990 so spare me the tears champ

I notice you didn't mention that he only kicked 18 in his second year. Also his 51 was only just over half what the Coleman medallist got that year so the equivalent last year would have been to kick 35 goals.

 

[dogwatch]

17 year old Chris Grant kicked 50 Goals + 1 in 1990 so spare me the tears champ

Are you saying it should be a cinch because Chris Grant did it at a younger age (and I think is still the youngest in VFL/AFL history to kick 50 in his first season), or that it hasn't been done by a Bulldog in his first or second year for a quarter of a century (and counting)?

I'm not opposed to the aspirational target in your OP, Acker, but this is what they mean by that curious expression "the exception proves the rule". Your example demonstrates that it is indeed a rare event to kick 50 in your second season. (And even rarer in your first season, of course.)

 

[fitzroybowiedog]

As a supporter my outlook is conservative, I want him to play at least 15 games and kick at least 25 goals. not much but it's been awhile since we've had a KPF so i'm all for slowly slowly. That being said i want him to champing at the bit and setting himself lofty targets. If he's not pumping himself up to play every game a slot home 50+ goals for the season, then i worry he may never actually do it. I want him thinking he can destroy the world.

 

[GrahamSmith]

I'm pretty excited to see Tom Boyd play this year this will be he's second year in the system. If he and Bont elevate themselves in their second year as did Macrae and Stringer did......... Goals will be flowing! haha

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

I've intentionally IQ'd the GWS games that Boyd played in to see what did outside of the highlights, and aside from the obvious lack of AFL fitness, he's a really good, realllllly good player. The delivery he got was at best appalling, other than a beautiful pass that Treloar gave him against Richmond, but his leading patterns are good, he knows where to run, he pushes off his defenders to create space and he can catch it. He did drop a few contested marks in packs that he got first hands to, but I suspect he'll be catching them in 2 years.

What I was most impressed with was his kicking. He kicks the ball very straight. He's not a long kick yet though, ie he struggled from 45m out, but he kicks it straight, which is why I believe he'll be better than Hawkins, who kicks in swingers and out swingers, often in the same kick.

I have no doubt in 3-4 years when Griff has retired to go pig shooting, he will be viewed as the greatest recruit the club has targeted of all time.

His highlights reel from 9 games last year is fantastic for a debutant in a shithouse team. I know he's young and has only played 9 games but his movement, strength, skill, marking and kicking were all on display and I was impressed.
This kid alone is going to make me get Foxtel.
I have no doubt he'll eventually deliver. The Bulldogs forward line is going to be great to watch this year with Stringer, Bontempelli and Crameri cutting it up around our man mountain.

 

[the dog's kennel]

17 year old Chris Grant kicked 50 Goals + 1 in 1990 so spare me the tears champ

No tears. Just befuddled headshaking.

Lots of things happened 25 years ago that don't happen anymore.

 

[Hrovat24]

Grant was a superstar once in a lifetime player , comparing boyd to grant is ridiculous

 

[Dogs Rule]

It's not all about Boyd kicking goals himself. The sheer presence of two-metre, 100kg FF will create plenty of crumbing goals. The effect Boyd will have on others in terms of his presence will be massive.

I'm getting pumped just thinking about it.

 

[fitzroybowiedog]

Grant was a superstar once in a lifetime player , comparing boyd to grant is ridiculous

So Boyd isn't going to be our once in a generation superstar?

 

[Hrovat24]

So Boyd isn't going to be our once in a generation superstar?

I never said that, any player that gets drafted could be a once in a generation superstar , but to expect a 19 year to have a season like chris grant did in his second year is just ridiculous especially when it has only Been achieved several times