2010 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch

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Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Wait, what? When did Brodie Smith pick up linebreaking pace? My understanding was that he tested poorly at DC during the sprints etc and the general consensus was that while he's no plodder he's no-one's definition of quick.

EDIT: Nevermind, was getting confused with Polec. Carry on :p
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

thejester said:
I'd be ecstatic if Heppell fell to #15. Not interested in Prestia and I'd lean toward Smedts over Atley.

I know I've been banging on about it for the length of this thread but I remain amazed at the way in which Luke Parker and Mitch Hallahan have slipped off the radar. Quayle had us taking Cook at #23 and that's a great pick, but if we took either one of the Stingrays (Parker in particular) at #23 I'd be really stoked.
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Agree...Heppell is a must if he falls. Melb will prob take him but you never know.

As for Prestia, fear not he will be gone before 15 so it doesn't matter. Remember how some of you guys were iffy on him at 23 when I suggested it a while back? I was onto something :cool:

I like Parker and Hallahan (more so Parker b/c he's less slow) but it will be hard to justify taking either of them at 23 with possible sliders involved of quality into the 20's, and the likelihood that either Watson or McCarthy will be there too. Obviously if either of them gets to 37 we take them in 0.1 milliseconds. In Hallahan's case, in particular, I think that's possible. Outside chance but possible, so let's hope.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

year of the cat said:
On FOX pay tv.

SEN (1116) have full coverage from 6.30pm on radio.
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Thanks for the info - not sure I can pick SEN in country Vic - bugger !


Just found this - Thursday 18 November 2010

See the stars of tomorrow join their new AFL clubs as Fox Sports brings you all the suspense and elation of the 2010 NAB AFL Draft live.
Live on Fox Sports 2 from 7pm (AEDT) nationally 1116 SEN, 3AW, Triple M Melbourne, NIRS, FIVEaa, ABC
 

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Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Having not seen Watson or McCarthy play I can't really comment on how outrageous/non-outrageous it'd be passing them at #23. I have seen Parker and Hallahan and I think they'd easily by justified at #23, not only in terms of best available but also in terms of need. I suspect we'll have to agree to disagree on that, though ;)

On that note, I'll see everyone on the other side...I gotta go to work and TBH I think I hit 'peak draft' about a fortnight ago, everything that can be said has been said and every scrap of information that can be extracted has been extracted. Enjoy the 'tension' of the Top 10 countdown and the expert commentary of Andy 'But how does it feel?' Maher and I guess I'll read the responses in a few hours!
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

thejester said:
Having not seen Watson or McCarthy play I can't really comment on how outrageous/non-outrageous it'd be passing them at #23. I have seen Parker and Hallahan and I think they'd easily by justified at #23, not only in terms of best available but also in terms of need. I suspect we'll have to agree to disagree on that, though ;)

On that note, I'll see everyone on the other side...I gotta go to work and TBH I think I hit 'peak draft' about a fortnight ago, everything that can be said has been said and every scrap of information that can be extracted has been extracted. Enjoy the 'tension' of the Top 10 countdown and the expert commentary of Andy 'But how does it feel?' Maher and I guess I'll read the responses in a few hours!
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Fair enough mate.

I have seen enough of Watson live to know he'll be a beast, maybe not next year because he still needs to lose 4-5 kgs, get a couple of pre seasons to improve his endurance etc, but in 3-4 years we'll be laughing about what a bargain we got at 23 (I think Carlton will take him at 18 anyway). I haven't seen nearly as much of McCarthy live, but judging by what I've read, he'd be a great get there too.

I have nothing against Hallahan or Parker, either of them would be great, I just think given there's much more depth in mids than talls this year (and all the recruiters acknowledge that) we must go tall at 23 (and then mid at 37, rather than the other way round), unless some 'impossible to pass up' player falls to 23 (e.g. Brodie Smith). But you may well be right and I may well be wrong, and I respect your opinion.

Gah, Top 10 reverse will be so boring, and Maher drives me nuts. Anyway, see you posting post draft mate.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

BigCat1 said:
If Atley, Heppell or Prestia are available at 15 and we pass and take Smelts (a Wells special Flanker/rotation player) or a 22 yr old wingman I reckon we will have pulled the wrong reign.

If they are all gone then great take Smelts or Smith and we will be all happy but I'd be really disappointed if they passed over Atley if he was still there. We need a pure mid. Hogan is not up to it and Corey and Ling may not last 2011 out.

For those that back and love the club to the hilt like me this has been a bad offseason. Terrible in fact. The trading was shambolic by trading away DJ and Laidler for nothing and we should have got pick 13 not 15 from the gold coast he reemed us in the first place by stealing our club's most famous name and best player. Definately need an improvement in our list management. We do so many things so so well but we need to tidy up here big time. (note this is not a knock on the recruiting. List management/trading is completely different)
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Disagree. DJ we got what he was worth (honestly 4 games in 4 years aint worth more than 57), and given Laidler was uncontracted and would have gone to the PSD, and was a 2 gamer, we got a fair return. To extract 6 picks inside 60 was a reasonably good trade week performance by Wells.

The only shambolic/bad bit is that we are not using all of our 6 picks inside 60, but that is other people's fault, not Wells's.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Pure_Ownage said:
Gah, Top 10 reverse will be so boring, and Maher drives me nuts. Anyway, see you posting post draft mate.
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they really should take a leaf out of american sports in this regard...reverse top 10 is just plain stupid. it doesnt build anymore suspense.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

darren forssman said:
they really should take a leaf out of american sports in this regard...reverse top 10 is just plain stupid. it doesnt build anymore suspense.
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Especially when we already know who picks 1 2 and 3 are.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I haven't posted anything about this draft before, but this is what I would like to see tonight:

15: I. Smith - desperate need for a quick winger, if we don't get him, we need to look at Prestia and Andreoli with either 23 or 37. Have a feeling we may take Smedts, I red somewhere that Scott also likes those versatile players.

23: Guthrie - would replace players like Enright and Ling in a few years. Also another one of those versatile players. I think we will get either one of Smedts-Guthrie.

37: Best available med/tall defender: Litherland/Chalwell. We're not that light on for back up defenders as people may think: Lonergan, Drum and Gillies.

54: Steinberg - just loved his highlights reel, plays like a taller Johnno.


Having said all that, and knowing Geelong, we'll probably get players that I haven't heard much about (like Menzel last year) or take players with earlier picks that were predicted to go later.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

proboy said:
Im happy if we get cook.

Just cause they list him as a forward doesn't mean he cant play back.

I would be stoked if we got smedts too he just looks the goods.

so in saying that i'm gunna go with our picks

Smedts

Cook

Adroelli

and some gun wells has hidden under a rock.
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Could it be this?
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/105279/default.aspx

Josh, where are you, come and promote yourself! :D

Seriously, I wouldn't actually mind him if he gets through to the rookie draft.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Belisarius said:
Probably been asked before and answered - but on what station is the draft on ? Free to air or pay TV ?

Is it on the radio - if so please give the station number on the dial as well.

Thanks.

PS. I would be disappointed if not on free to air - but checked the guide and cannot see it !
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Starting on FOX now
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

So we have completed the National and Rookie Drafts for 2010.

What are everyone's feelings?

Personally, although we are yet to see any of our draftees play senior footy I reckon Wells has brought in a group of players that could well be the foundation of the next group to challenge for a flag. He obviously has gone hard in getting a group of mids together over the past couple of years as he did in the 99-01 draft periods some time ago. Wells appears to believe that flags these days are won by teams that have a group of 8-10 mids all coming through and developing together. Hopefully they can get the most out of each other and achieve their potential.

I think that we shall start to see whether this group is "up to it" in 2012-2013. You would think that we should have a very competitive VFL outfit by then if this group is to be successful at the next level up.

Patience will be needed as it is unlikely any of them will have an immediate impact as Selwood did back in 2007.

As for what we need next?

2011 should see the final years of Ottens, Mooney and Milburn at the very least. Ling has been rumoured to be considering also making 2011 his last. Joel Corey is another whose future would be undecided. Another injury interrupted year and you would think that would be it as well.

Wells has got most bases covered I reckon here. He has with Menzel, Duncan and Smedts a threesome who are versatile and talented. All can play both forward or back. It will be hoped that Christensen, Horlin-Smith and Schroder will provide a bit of inside grunt. Guthrie will probably be used as a defensive mid and has been identified as a replacement for Ling in that role.

Vardy's future is less certain. Is he a ruckman that can play forward or a forward that can play ruck? Does it matter?!! With the new rule though he looks to be the sort of versatile player that clubs would seek.

It will be hoped that either Walker or Mitch Brown can develop into key position players. With luck Mitch can have an injury free 2011 and start to show us that he really can be the KP prospect we want him to be. When he has strung a few games together he has looked good thus far. We also need Hawkins to similarly have an injury free year as well and be planted in a key forward post.

Back to the question of what we may need. Probably another KPP with a defensive game. Wells baulked at taking both Watson and McCarthy in this years draft so it will be interesting to see how these two develop at the blues. Harry Taylor, in my mind, needs some backup. Lonergan is not a long term prospect. Scarlett has only 2-3 years left at best. Gillies may replace him but may not either. This is really where we need to get a 195cm, big boned, quick off the mark, great overhead, fantastic kicking CHB. Not much to ask?

More speed is possibly another priority. Whilst Smedts and Guthrie are not slugs they aren't racehorses either. So if we are going to take another mid perhaps one with explosive speed to compliment T.Hunt would be nice. Got to be able to get the footy and finish as well though. Don't want another Tenace.

That will do it for now. Any further ideas?
 

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Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Good post YOTC. I also have very high hopes for Menzel, Duncan and particularly Mitch Brown. I also believe T Hunt will be a very fine player and a fixture in the side.

I wonder if theres a bit too much focus on speed on this board. Yes, you need pace. No arguement, I dont exactly think though we are a pack of draught horses either. Byrnes, Varcoe, T Hunt, Wojo and Menzel are all full of pace, and I think Smedts ranked in the top 10 for the 20 metre trial at Draft camp ( I am sure someone can confirm this..or otherwise) and I understand Guthrie also has a turn of speed.

I didnt hear much concern about pace until after the PF. We were thrashed, and yes, we looked slow. But I looked at the 86 point flogging the Woods gave us in 2009 and we looked as slow as old hacks in that game too. When a side gets a run on, inevitably the losing side looks slow. Take a look at the Cats 100 point thrashing of the Dogs....we didnt look too slow that day...but the Dogs did! Momentum makes sides look inept and slow...

Like Pure and a few others I did expect another KPP to be selected but the boys taken will do ok I think, and your point about Wells building like her did 10 years back is a valid one.

I believe we will be competitive next year...the next couple of drafts and the development at the margins at Geelong will be critical for us to be knocking loudly on the door in 2013/14
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Happy with the kids we drafted. Smedts seems to have real class and evasiveness, Guthrie might be vanilla to some, but I think he's much more, and he fills a hole our list was crying out for. Horlin Smith has a heap of upside and Schroder is a fair upgrade on Djerrkura. Obviously rapt to get Walker too, and Simpkin does have the talent to make a 2nd go at AFL level work.

Obviously Wells is setting up the midfield well, when you consider we haven't had the high picks of some sides.

Still wouldn't say I feel our list is anywhere near 'complete' for the long term though. Do like the midfield though:
Class of Bartel, Selwood and Kelly, to be surrounded by Hogan, Duncan, Guthrie, Christensen, Menzel, GHS, Schroder, Cowan and we're looking fairly good.

That said, definitely need some more quick players, you need up to half a dozen I reckon that can genuinely play significant midfield time if need be. David the Cat is right that we will get a natural pace improvement by replacing old blokes with younger ones, but you still need a few guys with real speed, and a good mix of inside mids and quick guys. We are shaping up very well in the former but still need more of the latter. Weston will play back, THunt may need to also given forward presses and the need to not be slow at the back, and I don't think Varcs or Mots, much as they will be guns, have the durability to be genuine (full time) midfielders, so we have a big hole there and do need to fill it. Having said that, an article I read pointed out that one of the reasons why guys like Sherman and Tambling, who are really quick line breakers but are by no means elite players, attracted a premium at trade week was because clubs perceived there wasn't great depth of that same player type available in this draft. So in that sense I can't criticise Wells for not taking what wasn't really there, but it is a need we must fill going forward.

Ruck situation is also an issue. Interchange rule has pretty much killed what was left of Blake (both in terms of future with us, or any trade value) in while that's not our fault because we couldn't have known a couple of years ago the AFL would go this way, it really hurts us now. Simpson I'm not sold on and he has issues with the new rule too, West has had a good year but it doesn't mean he'll become a quality player, and both he and Vardy are ideal 2nd ruck types, but probably not genuine full time ruckmen, so we definitely need that player. History says you trade into the best rucks (unless you have top 10 draft picks) so that is a road we may need to go down again.

Was surprised to see no key defender (unless we will groom walker as one). Our key defensive stocks are weak, and if we lost Q9 for any length of time, we'd be utterly screwed (obviously it's unlikely you'll have another guy as good as him waiting in the wings, but we still need more backup than we have). Compared to most sides, both numerically and quality wise, we really do lack key defenders, and we'll need to fix that.

So in terms of draft and trade priorities the next couple of years it has to be ruck, key defender and quick guys, this is what will 'complete' our list. So yeah, happy with our drafting this year, very happy, but still a way to go.

The other issue we have is that we have a lot of old players, and a lot of young players, and very little inbetween. That's no one's fault, it's just the way the list has unfolded with a lot of older premiership players, and a lot of 22-24 guys not making it or leaving for more opportunities. But while we have some great youth, hence it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to balance the list by trading for a couple of quality players 22-24 age to fill needs that we have. Particularly when our key needs are talls, who take the longest to develop (from drafting) it would be a theory that would make some sense. Normally I am very big on drafting, and hence reluctant to trade out of drafts too much, but given all these factors, if we are to pick a year to trade, the weak draft in 2011 may well be it, and I could support that. We certainly need to be aggressive if we go down that road.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Generally with you Pure....except the Varcoe line...certain to become a midfielder in my mind. And an elite one at that.

I suspect, despite his setback, that the engine will grow to meet the requirements of being a top midfielder.

Not sure how long it will be until he can run though...I hope not too long....
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

year of the cat said:
So we have completed the National and Rookie Drafts for 2010.

What are everyone's feelings?
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I was stoked with it.

The thing that stands out for me is the emphasis on decision making and disposal. Players like Menzel, Duncan, Guthrie and Smedts were considered elite junior prospects because of these two things. Even the players we've taken lower down like Cowan, Bundy and Schroeder are obviously smart footballers. The development program also seems to reflect that - look at someone like Hunt, who has been steadily groomed as a midfielder in the VFL and has added other tools to compliment his natural pace. I get the impression (maybe unfairly) that this is a change of emphasis from the early part of the Bomber years. We pretty openly tried to emulate the midfield of the Lions and the guys at the heart of the premiership teams - Rooke, Chappy, SJ, Bartel, Corey, Ling, Selwood - were blue-collar players, footballer's footballers. That's not to say they didn't possess elite qualities and obviously we had Ablett in a class of his own, but what we maybe lacked in class was more than made up for in contested ball, weight of numbers and daring.

I reckon since 2008 though there's been an obvious shift to try and counter that. Zones put pressure on the ball carrier, tackling is ferocious, and teams win by causing turnovers. I think one of the reasons we looked slow at the end of last year is because of this. Guys run to space, there's a turnover, and suddenly they're way out of position. These tactics obviously put a premium on decision making and disposal, particularly by foot...and hey presto, they're the qualities we've quietly looked for in draftees. That's particularly exciting when you consider that Varcoe and Selwood will only be 23 next year, and that's a pretty solid foundation to build on in midfield in the long term.

Holes on the list...don't really see any, TBH. Yes, some old guys are retiring. Will losing them hurt? In the short term of course, because one is a once in a generation player (Scarlett) and the others are borderline elite with hundreds of games each - obviously a 22yr old thrown in as a replacement isn't going to do as well. But I think we've drafted to cover them and there's an element of having to lie in our bed now that we've made it.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

You are very right about decision making and disposal jester.

I look at someone like GHS, who is very raw in a footballing sense, and lots of his game will need work, and he's played very little footy, but what does he have going for him? Quality kicking and decision making, and hence he goes second round of the ND. There's definitely a trend towards that, that and versatile players that you can move across the lines, and Wells has covered these bases well.

Whether we have major holes or not I suppose depends on what the definition is, but the ruck department could certainly use improvement if we can, not to say it's weak now, but it's a logical area to improve, as is tall defence.

Largely because of the zones, I'd like to see THunt and Weston play at the back with their run and kicking skills, and one of Varcoe or Motlop forward, so we could really use another couple of really quick types like them to play in the midfield, because we've assembled some great young ball winners and kicks, it would now be nice to have some pace to round it off. Those player types are hard to find, but we will see.

I do think also the mid tier age group thing is an issue. Personally I reckon we should be aiming to be having another crack in 3-4 years, and history says that to win flags, you want a number of players in their prime age (25-28ish) and you want most of them to be in your best dozen. Collingwood did win a flag with a fairly young side but that tends to be the exception rather than the rule. In terms of who will be in that age bracket then, we only really have Selwood and Varcoe and Taylor that I am confident about. So unless we are going to trade in players in that age group (22-23 now) the ones that we have in that age group, Drum, Hogan, Hawkins and West, need to really come on, so that we are not leaving too much to the aforementioned. I am very confident that in 3-4 years we will have a very good young group of guys who've played bw 50-100 games, with heaps of talent, the real question mark for me will be whether we have enough quality older players. If we can combine both I think we will be a real shot then, and it'll be interesting to see how Wells continues to build that.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Good readin PO and TJ. I think the main concern i had with our lack of pace later in the year was we were losing the contested ball more and more which meant teams would then spread quicker from the packs then we did. We tended to look around and other sides would be off. Thats why we will always need to have good in and under players to win the contests.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

I will be interested to hear peoples views on free agency that will come in a couple of years time. It should coincide with a number of key retirements from our team and therefore should free up a lot of cash. It will also coincide with (as a few previous posters have eluded to) our next possible premiership window around 2013-14. So i would think when free agency does come in we will be cashed up and ready to go. It will be interesting to see if we go down this path. It would help fill any possible gaps in our list when we next challenge.

Thoughts?
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

AS I understand it we will get Bews next season under the father and son rule. Another potential mid-fielder for us.

We have a priority pick that will probably be taken in 2012 for Ablett's departure.

We will have retired quite a few players in 1-2 years time - Mooney, Milburn, Scarlett (hope not could play IMO until 35), Corey, Ling, Ottens and Wojo. Perhaps JHunt will also be gone as well.

So we will indeed have a heap of cash to spend if we can find the right player we need and they want to come to Catland.

I am with PO on this - most likely a dominant ruckman - mobile and can mark over head and go down forward an kick the occasional goal for us.

I think we will be fine for mids - with all the recruits over the last 2 years we have had - and this goes for flankers and wingmen. Add Bews to the mix and for sure Wells will take another 1-2 mid-fielders next season and the season after that - even if we target KP players in the ND and Rookie drafts. And as I said we have Bews.

So I think in 2012 we use our priority draft pick for a KP backman or ruck.

As I just cannot believe Lonergan or Hawkins will be anything but good ordinary footballers - this makes such drafting more likely - and we will know by then where these 2 players stand.

So I think a bigger CHB, maybe a FB and a ruckman is all we need really in the next 2-3 years to be a force again.

If we just get Gillies to play well at FB OR Vardy or B. Johnson to play well at CHB OR get Walker or Brown to become good tall forwards Or Simpson becomes a good ruckman - then if any of these scenarios turn out then we will be on our way. WE just need one of these scenarios to work well for us and then we have few weaknesses we need to recruit for in the next 2 drafts.

It seems likely that one of these 4 scenarios will work for us - just nor sure which one.

As we have really only West and Simpson as ruck alternatives to Ottens - this is likely to be one of the holes we will need to fill by using a cashed up position to get an established ruck man.

Gillies seems to be the only real alternative to Scarlett we have and so this too could be an area we target as well.

Personally I think we will be a good side for the next few years given the talent we have already and the likelihood a few younger players will establish themselves as very good players for us in this time frame.

Whether we become Premiers again will depend on we can get a a FB and a decent ruckman most likely.

If we can develop a bigger, mobile marking CHB - that makes the necessity of having a top FB less critical.

So much depends then on whether our second tier players stand up this year and show us they can become a ruckman or a KP backman.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

muttonchops said:
I will be interested to hear peoples views on free agency that will come in a couple of years time. It should coincide with a number of key retirements from our team and therefore should free up a lot of cash. It will also coincide with (as a few previous posters have eluded to) our next possible premiership window around 2013-14. So i would think when free agency does come in we will be cashed up and ready to go. It will be interesting to see if we go down this path. It would help fill any possible gaps in our list when we next challenge.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Yes and no. Free agency at 26 is only limited so won't help us unless we're getting a player from a club under salary pressure, such as WB. For example, if we wanted Foley, making a massive bid for him wouldn't get it done, it would only make Richmond pay more to keep him (this is also why we should sign Sel to the end of 2015 or another club may try to put is in the same position), as Packer did to CH7 on his deathbed (I expect under this system clubs will play ducks and drakes and bid for players they know they won't get, in order to try and make the club pay more and hence have to trade out a mid tier guy, and hence get them instead). Getting a 26 yo guy will only work if he's from a top 4 club that has a salary cap squeeze. We'll only take in guys at 28 when we feel we've built the guts of the next prem side, and it's 'last piece of the puzzle time' ala Collingwood with Jolly. We may do the same around that time, say end of 2013, and look for a ruckman if our exisiting ones haven't come on by then.

However we may still target players in the meantime, we'll just have to trade for them, which is still fine. We'd be crazy not to look at available quality talls, given we lack them, especially since we don't have a lot of players in the mid tier age group too.
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Some very good analysis here particularly with the KP options.
Agree we seem to have our Midfield / 180 - 190cm types covered with the emerging players looking promising and the amount of draftees we have secured.
The KP's are a lottery really as they do take longer to emerge and the hit rate seems a lot worse than the "smaller" type players. I remember thinking Scott Simpson could be something and look what happened.
Just adding to your KP options - where do you see Pods? I think he can get slightly better and could be around for another 2-3 years coming predominantly out of FF.
If he can hold this down it may lessen the pressure on the likes of Brown, Vardy and Walker to perform quickly as surely Tom can develop into a decent KPF?
 
Re: Potential Draftee Watch 2010 - Critical and Compromised.

Turbocat said:
Has anybody seen any Falcons games this year , cause this kid sounds like one to keep track off.
Billie Smedts , kicking 5 and 6 in first couple of weeks yet Coach Hood thinks he's a better defender. Nice size at 187 too.

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/04/05/161401_geelong_sports.html
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The GFC has him at 189cm on their player profile.

http://www.gfc.com.au/players/playerprofile/billiesmedts/tabid/8137/playerid/22229/category/senior/season/2010/selected/bio/default.aspx
 
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